How will robots impact the future workforce?

As we start to think about the next decade, analysts predict three overlapping waves: algorithm, augmentation and autonomy.

Dr Rob Wortham, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, University of Bath

When we think of robots, what generally comes to mind are the humanoid creations from movies such as The Terminator, or perhaps C3PO from Star Wars. On the other hand, when we imagine industrial robots, we remember those fast moving robotic arms used in the manufacture of cars. However, the truth is that robots come in all shapes and sizes, and are increasingly found in many workplace environments. A recent PwC report estimates that AI and robotic devices will contribute 14% of global GDP by 2030, equivalent to around $15 trillion at today’s values.

A robot is simply an intelligent system, able to achieve some useful function by sensing the world and behaving intelligently. As Forest Gump pointed out, “stupid is as stupid does”. In the same vein, we can most usefully understand autonomous intelligence as “intelligence is as intelligence does” - we recognise intelligence simply by observation. However, a simple definition does not imply that building a useful robot is a simple job!

At present, most mechanical robots are confined to fairly simple, repetitive tasks like moving stock around in a warehouse, sorting items on a production line or picking and packing products for dispatch. If we use our simple definition of a robot to cover chatbots and ‘smart speaker’ devices such as Amazon Alexa and Google Home, then we see that robotic devices are already commonplace in domestic environments. Looking ahead into the 2020s and beyond, analysts predict three overlapping waves of artificially intelligent systems.

1. THE ALGORITHM WAVE

This is well underway, and we see machine learning technology widely deployed in the finance and technology sectors. AI powers Google’s search, Apple’s Siri, Facebook’s advertising and Netflix’s movies recommendations. The statistical analysis and predictive power of AI is well established.

2. THE AUGMENTATION WAVE

Expect to see AI functions added to familiar tools like Microsoft’s Excel spreadsheet or accounts packages like Sage and Xero soon. Also expect exciting new products able to rapidly classify, extract and summarise key facts from documents in Word or PDF formats. The productivity gains these AI tools will provide for sales managers, accountants and lawyers are obvious. In healthcare, we’ll see robotic testing of blood and tissue samples and AI analysing medical scans. Staff doing repetitive, data-based classification and administration tasks will need to rapidly re-train to make use of these new tools, and fewer clerical jobs are likely, as AI automates these functions.

3. THE AUTONOMY WAVE

The arrival of robots in agriculture, healthcare, retail, transportation and hospitality sectors will characterise the autonomy wave. Although there are many pilot projects and a great deal of research activity in these areas, widespread adoption is unlikely until the end of the 2020s. Tasks requiring physical labour, manual dexterity or dealing with uncertain environments are currently very difficult, even for today’s most advanced robots. Sophisticated robots will require highly trained, skilled staff to design, commission, operate and maintain them. There may well be acute skills shortages, creating opportunities for small specialist suppliers and consultancies. There is huge investment in self driving vehicles at present, but fully autonomous (level 5) driving is a distant possibility, due to the social complexities of driving in urban areas. However, expect to see autonomous parking in fully automated car parks, and cars equipped with intelligent systems to further support the driver and improve vehicle safety.

STANDARDS, REGULATION AND SOCIETAL CONSTRAINTS

The pace of adoption of AI and robotics beyond manufacturing and industrial settings will be affected not only by the rate of technical progress, but also by the need for standardisation. Standards are essential to provide a basis for interoperability, testing and product certification. Standards are an important driver of trust and product uptake. A British Standards Institution standard for robots already exists, and wider standards for accountability, responsibility and transparency of AI systems are actively being developed in conjunction with International Electrotechnical Commission/ International Organization for Standardization initiatives. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers has launched an initiative

for Ethically Aligned Design, and is also engaged in the creation of specific AI standards for robots and autonomous intelligent systems (AIS). The potential of AI to cause social harm is also becoming better understood and increasingly recognised. Many governments are actively considering their approach to regulation. The UK has an active All Party Parliamentary Group for AI taking expert evidence and suggesting priorities for government policy.

AI is here, and robots are on their way. Expect to see substantial changes to the way we work, and to the jobs we’ll be doing, as intelligent systems become commonplace in the workplace.

AI AND ROBOTICS AT A GLANCE

Here today: The Algorithm Wave

• Machine learning technology widely deployed

• Analyses huge data sets

• Classifies images

• Powers search engines

• Beats humans at board games

On the horizon: The Autonomy wave

• Robots in agriculture, healthcare, retail, transportation and hospitality

• Happening now: pilot projects and lots of research activity

• However widespread adoption unlikely until the end of 2025/30

• Self driving cars: a distant possibility

Arriving soon: The augmentation wave

• AI functions added to familiar tools like Excel, Sage and Xero

• Exciting new products able to rapidly classify, extract and summarise key facts

• Staff doing repetitive, data-based administration tasks will need to rapidly re-train

• Fewer administrative jobs in the future

Standards, regulation and societal constraints

• Wide adoption of autonomous systems requires industry standards

• Standards essential for interoperability, testing and certification

• Standards drive trust and product uptake

• A BSI standard for robots already exists

• BSI IEC/ISO and IEEE initiatives underway

• Potential of AI and robotics to cause social harm also becoming better understood and increasingly recognised.

Dr Rob Wortham, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, University of Bath