Petro Appocalypse Now

NATIONAL COLLEGE OF ARTS, LAHORE Department of Architecture

Thesis Report

PETRO-APOCALYPSE NOW? A case for transition to a Post-Carbon World

BY: ROUSHAN MIR JANUARY, 2012 7052

URBAN DESIGN IN A PETRO-APOCALYPTIC CITY A case for transition to a Post-Carbon World

BY: ROUSHAN MIR

Thesis report submitted to the Department of Architecture National College of Arts, Lahore In partial fulfillment of The requirements for the degree of

B.Arch.

January, 2012

Internal Advisor: M. Tariq Khalidi

“The noblest pleasure is the joy of understanding.�

-- Leonardo Da Vinci

PETRO-APOCALYPSE NOW! A case for transition to a Post-Carbon World

ABSTRACT

The easily accessible oil in our planet earth is going to run out soon1 and we still do not have a plan B for it. Reason being us, a society addicted to oil and not wanting to hear that it is going to run out eventually. It is not about no more oil, it is about the failure of complex systems that we depend upon for our daily life i.e. food production, commerce, transport, education, services, landscape inhabitation etc. If we continue living our lives the way we are used to in this modern world, the aftermaths will lead to permanent impairment.

This thesis intends to rethink the human life patterns without this huge fossil fuel dependency. It acts as a source of awareness to the public that with proper steps taken, this hard crash landing can be transformed into a smooth one. At this time, without oil, our cities, our skies, our roads are unrecognizable. Now society has a second chance to reimagine itself.

1 2

3

A very optimistic approach says it to be a maximum of 20 to 25 years.

As predicted by American geoscientist Prof. M. King Hubbert in his concept of ‘Peak Oil’ in 1956 James Howard Kunstler, an American author, social critic, public speaker, and blogger, best known

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First and foremost, The Almighty, for what I am today and for everything else, cannot be summed in words.

I thank Amma and Abba for their love and support throughout my life, especially through the 5 years at NCA. Shanza Aapa, for always being there as a companion, for always missing me when I was away, for all the work, for everything.

My Thesis Advisor, Sir Tariq Khalidi, for giving me the opportunity to work in the direction I wanted to, and for his support and guidance throughout my graduate studies.

Ma’am Rabia Ezdi for always being there and pulling me out of every panic attack I suffered.

Dr. Khalid Bajwa for teaching me to look at things in a mature and pragmatic manner.

Ayesha Batool for guiding me at the final steps when I needed a guidance the most.

Tayyab Faheem, Fahad Dasti and Zaeem Ahmed for making the college an enjoyable place to come to throughout the Architecture graduate studies.

Mr. Bhaloo, for always being a brother, a joyful companion, and a lot more than that.

My class fellows, most importantly Khizer Ishtiaq and Ayesha Saeed for a wonderful time I’ve spent with them.

Anique Azhar for all the entertainment at his place throughout the 5 years.

Adil Khalil and Big Man for giving me a part of my life that I was missing.

Zaeem’s parents for providing me with a second home, all the love, support, prays and not forgetting the delicious food.

Dollar Bhai, thank you for all your help, support and unlimited solution to all our problems throughout the thesis year, without you...this would never have been possible.

Finally, I thank all the friends I’ve met over my five years at National College of arts, Lahore, especially, Waqar Rasool, Salman Ahmed and Phool Zaidi. The bond I have created with you is the most precious gift I have from NCA. Sayrim Bahi, Arslaan Pirzada, Minhaaj Ahmed Rafi and all the people who have been of help in the time of need.

Thanks and apologies to all those friends who had to bear with my incessant whining. Also need to acknowledge my laptop for bearing inhumane tortures during my entire time in thesis.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT

.................................................................................................................. IV

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................ VI LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................. IX LIST OF GRAPHS ................................................................................................................... X LIST OF MAPS

................................................................................................................... X

CHAPTER 1:

INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 12

ARE WE HEADING TOWARDS A DYSTOPIAN FUTURE?........................................................ 12 PREMISE............................................................................................................................... 14 THE PROJECT ....................................................................................................................... 16 OBJECTIVE............................................................................................................................ 17 CHAPTER 2:

WHAT IS PEAK OIL? .................................................................................... 18

HISTORY OF HUMAN-OIL DEPENDENCY ........................................................................... 20 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................. 20 TIMELINE ......................................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3:

SCENARIO STUDIES..................................................................................... 22

THE POWER OF COMMUNITY: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil ............................................. 22 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................. 22 IMMEDIATE IMPACTS ...................................................................................................... 23 THE CUBAN RESPONSE .................................................................................................... 24 TRANSITION TOWNS TOTNES: Kinsale, Ireland Vision 2021 ............................................... 27 FOOD ............................................................................................................................... 27 EDUCATION ..................................................................................................................... 28 HOUSING ......................................................................................................................... 29 HEALTH ............................................................................................................................ 29 TRANSPORT ..................................................................................................................... 30 WASTE ............................................................................................................................. 31 ENERGY ............................................................................................................................ 32 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................... 33 FICTIONAL SCENARIO STUDY ............................................................................................... 34 LAST LIGHT BY ALEX SCARROW ....................................................................................... 34 AFTER LIGHT BY ALEX SCARROW ..................................................................................... 36 documentary: WORLD WITHOUT OIL.............................................................................. 38 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................. 40

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CHAPTER 4:

AFTERMATHS: WHAT IS YET TO COME ........................................................ 41

CHAPTER 5:

FROM GLOBAL TO TERRITORIAL .................................................................. 46

STATUS OF PETROLEUM SECTOR IN PAKISTAN ................................................................... 46 OIL CONSUMPTION BY USER SECTOR ............................................................................. 48 POST PETROLEUM LAHORE ................................................................................................. 49 CHAPTER 6:

SITE SELECTION .......................................................................................... 51

SITE SELECTION CRITERIA .................................................................................................... 51 POTENTIAL SITES: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ....................................................................... 51 ICCHRA ............................................................................................................................. 52 LAKE CITY ......................................................................................................................... 54 LIBERTY, GULBERG ........................................................................................................... 56 CHAPTER 7:

THE SITE: LIBERTY, GULBERG ...................................................................... 58

URBAN SIGNIFICANCE ......................................................................................................... 58 ACTIVITY INTEGRATION: SPATIAL ORGANIZATION AND USE PATTERN ............................. 60 CHAPTER 8:

BUILDING A SCENARIO ............................................................................... 64

WHERE AM I?................................................................................................................... 64 THE FOLLOWING YEARS .................................................................................................. 65 THE SPEECH ..................................................................................................................... 66 THE NEXT TWO WEEKS .................................................................................................... 67 THE MIGRATION .............................................................................................................. 68 THE RETURN .................................................................................................................... 69 CHAPTER 9:

TOWARDS A NEW PARADIGM .................................................................... 73

DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS................................................................................................... 73 DESIGN OUTCOMES............................................................................................................. 74 GRAFTING: GUIDED GROWTH OF NATURE ......................................................................... 76 ARBOR-TECTURE.................................................................................................................. 78 WHY ARBO-TECTURE? ..................................................................................................... 78 LIVING EXAMPLES OF ARBOR-MODELLING ..................................................................... 80 DESIGN CODES OF THE NEW ARCHITECTURE.................................................................. 81 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................. 82

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LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: FICTIONAL VISION OF A DYSTOPIAN FUTURE ............................................. 12 FIGURE 2: THE DOMINO EFFECT .................................................................................. 14 FIGURE 3: CRUDE OIL DISTILLATION PRODUCTS ......................................................... 20 FIGURE 4: IMMEDIATE IMPACTS ON CUBA ................................................................. 22 FIGURE 5: CUBAN OIL IMPORTS FROM 14 TO 4 MILLION TONS LEFT ......................... 23 FIGURE 6: HUGE TRUCKS AND TROLLEYS CONVERTED TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT ......... 24 FIGURE 7: ANIMAL DRIVEN TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN IN MASSIVE USE .................... 24 FIGURE 8: CYCLING BEING THE MOST EFFICIENT MEANS OF COMMUTE ................... 24 FIGURE 9: PERMACULTURE.......................................................................................... 25 FIGURE 10: URBAN FARMING ...................................................................................... 25 FIGURE 11: PROMOTING FARMER'S MARKETS ........................................................... 25 FIGURE 12: OLD BUILDINGS CONVERTED INTO MIXED USE DEVELOPMENTS ............ 26 FIGURE 13: SOLAR POWER, A NECESSITY .................................................................... 26 FIGURE 14: KINSALE, IRELAND - AERIAL VIEW ............................................................. 27 FIGURE 15: 90 PERCENT OF THE FOOD IS IMPORTED ................................................. 27 FIGURE 16: A NEW PATTERN OF EDUCATION ............................................................. 28 FIGURE 17: COMMUNITY SCHOOLS ............................................................................. 28 FIGURE 18: EXISTING ENERGY INTENSIVE HOUSING PATTERN ................................... 29 FIGURE 19: EXISTING HEALTH INDUSTRY MAJORLY DEPENDENT ON OIL ................... 29 FIGURE 20: CURRENT TRANSPORT MEANS ................................................................. 30 FIGURE 21: FUTURE VISION OF KINSALE'S TRANSPORT: A LIGHT RAILWAY SYSTEM.. 30 FIGURE 22: EXISTING PATTERN OF TRANSPOR DEPENDENT WASTE MANAGEMENT 31 FIGURE 23: WASTE SEPARATED AT SOURCE................................................................ 31 FIGURE 24: CURRENT MEANS OF ENERGY: FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENT ........................ 32 FIGURE 25: POTENTIAL ENERGY SOURCE .................................................................... 32 FIGURE 26: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES, MAINLY SOLAR AND WIND ............. 32 FIGURE 27: LAST LIGHT (BOOK TITLE COVER) .............................................................. 34 FIGURE 28: AFTERLIGHT (BOOK TITLE COVER) ............................................................ 36 FIGURE 29: SCREENSHOT I (WORLD WITHOUT OIL) .................................................... 38 FIGURE 30: SCREENSHOT II (WORLD WITHOUT OIL) ................................................... 38 FIGURE 31: SCREENSHOT III (WORLD WITHOUT OIL) .................................................. 39 FIGURE 32: SCREENSHOT IV (WORLD WITHOUT OIL).................................................. 39 FIGURE 33: SCREENSHOT V (WORLD WITHOUT OIL) ................................................... 40 FIGURE 34: STREET IN ICCHRA COMMERCIAL MARKET .............................................. 52 FIGURE 35: AERIAL VIEW: ICCHRA URBAN FABRIC ...................................................... 52 FIGURE 36: LAKE VIEW HOUSING SOCIETY MASTERPLAN ........................................... 54 FIGURE 37: LIBERTY MARKET SHOPPING AREA ........................................................... 56 FIGURE 38: AERIAL VIEW: LIBERTY MARKET PARKING AREA ...................................... 58 FIGURE 39: AERIAL VIEW: LIBERTY MARKET 1984 ....................................................... 59 FIGURE 40: AERIAL VIEW: LIBERTY MARKET TODAY 2010........................................... 59

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FIGURE 41: LIBERTY BEFORE AND AFTER THE OIL CRASH ........................................... 72 FIGURE 42: GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF NATURAL GRAFTING PROCESS........... 76 FIGURE 43: STEP WISE PROCESS OF TREE-GRAFTING, PEELING, JOINING, BINDING, OPENING, FINAL FORM ................................................................................................ 77 FIGURE 44: LIVING ROOT BRIDGES OF MEGHALAYA, INDIA........................................ 80 FIGURE 45: PHYSICAL EXAMPLES OF ARBOR SCULPTURE IN LAHORE AND PATTOKI . 81

LIST OF GRAPHS GRAPH 1: GLOBAL ENERGY USE 2009- CLASSIFICATION ENERGY SOURCES BY PERCENTAGE OF CURRENT USE, ALSO CONSUMPTION PERCENTAGE OF DIFFERENT SECTORS OF A CITY ...................................................................................................... 15 GRAPH 2: HUBBERT’S GRAPH V/S WORLD OIL PRODUCTION GRAPH ........................ 18 GRAPH 3: INTERNATIONAL OIL PRODUCTION HISTORY .............................................. 18 GRAPH 4: GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICE (U.S. $/BBL) ....................................................... 19 GRAPH 5: POPULATION BOOM TIMELINE ................................................................... 21 GRAPH 6: CRUDE OIL IMPORTS TIMELINE, PAKISTAN (SOURCE: CIA WORLD FACTBOOK)................................................................................................................... 46 GRAPH 7: CRUDE OIL CONSUMPTION (YELLOW) V/S PRODUCTION (BLUE) TIMELINE, PAKISTAN (SOURCE: CIA WORLD FACT BOOK) ........................................................... 47 GRAPH 8: GASOLINE/DIESEL PRICE TIMELINE (SOURCE: PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK 2011) ......................................................................................................... 47 GRAPH 9: PAKISTAN’S PETROLEUM PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR (SOURCE: PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK 2010) .......................................................................... 48

LIST OF MAPS MAP 1: MAP OF CUBA.................................................................................................. 22 MAP 2: CHRONOLOGICAL SPATIAL EXPANSION OF LAHORE....................................... 49 MAP 3: 24 IDENTIFIED CITY CENTERS OF LAHORE (SOURCE: OCCO, LAHORE) ........... 50 MAP 4: SATELLITE IMAGE: ICCHRA .............................................................................. 52 MAP 5: SATELLITE IMAGE: LAKE CITY .......................................................................... 54 MAP 6: LAKE VIEW MASTERPLAN ................................................................................ 54 MAP 7: SATELLITE IMAGE: LIBERTY, GULBERG ............................................................ 56 MAP 8: COMPOSITE LANDUSE MAP ............................................................................ 60 MAP 9: LANDUSE: RESIDENTIAL AREAS ...................................................................... 61

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MAP 10: LANDUSE: EDUCATIONAL AREAS .................................................................. 61 MAP 11: LANDUSE: PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SERVICES ................................................... 61 MAP 12: LANDUSE: GREEN AREAS ............................................................................... 61 MAP 13: LANDUSE: ABANDONED, UNDER-CONSTRUCTION AND GREY AREAS ......... 62 MAP 14: LANDUSE: COMMERCIAL AREAS ................................................................... 62 MAP 15: LANDUSE: CORPORATE AREAS ...................................................................... 62 MAP 16: LANDUSE: EATERIES ..................................................................................... 62 MAP 17: LIBERTY TREE MAPPING ................................................................................ 63 MAP 18: EXISTING PEAK TRAFFIC DENSITIES ............................................................... 63

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CHAPTER 1:

INTRODUCTION

“If the path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst�

-- Thomas Hardy, 1887

ARE WE HEADING TOWARDS A DYSTOPIAN FUTURE? Answering this question requires the understanding of the term dystopia. It is defined as often a futuristic society that has degraded into a repressive and uncontrolled state, often under the pretense of being utopian. Dystopian state is always based on cautionary tones, warning society that if we continue to live how we do, this will be the consequence. A dystopia, thus, is regarded as a sort of negative utopia.

At this point in time, I would say yes we surely are following the exact footmarks that will lead us to a dystopian society and the very thing driving us there is ignorance towards the continuous cautions that have been given since the year

FIGURE 1: FICTIONAL VISION OF A DYSTOPIAN FUTURE

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1949, that Earth’s fossil fuels are a finite source of energy. They all follow a bell curve2 graph formation in its extraction and production and sooner or later will reach to a point where it will be an end to easily accessible oil. This ignorance is due to the false anti-theories and abiotic misinformation led by the very few ruling powers (including the oil companies) and has made us believe that we would all of a sudden shift to alternatives, thus, currently making us so much dependent on Petroleum.

Today, if the oil tap suddenly runs out, the complex systems of the modern world will collapse and human survival will get very difficult, unless we have a plan B. What we are currently seeing is a crisis, not an apocalypse. But apocalypses come about when people ignore potential crisis and therefore fail to take action that would mitigate their impact. Petro-Apocalypse defines a state of aftermath. It is the uncanny stillness that comes after a traumatic condition. Unlike the momentous event, it focuses on survival, the desire for regeneration, and the need for hope. In the rubble of extreme social and material turmoil, the resonating question is simply: ‘what happens now?’ (Spurr, 2010)

2

As predicted by American geoscientist Prof. M. King Hubbert in his concept of ‘Peak Oil’ in 1956

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PREMISE

“Any problem starts with our failure to construct a coherent consensus about what’s happening to us and what are we going to do about it” -- James Howard Kunstler3 The problem is not about oil being unapproachable with time; it is about the failure of the complex systems that we depend upon i.e. food production, commerce, transport, landscape inhabitation, architecture and never ending other headings. The corner stones of this system that we live in, are all resting upon these energy rich carbons, we call fossil fuels. It is the basis with which we sustain complexity and solve our problems. We are a society so much addicted to oil that we are not even ready to hear that it is eventually going to run out. It is so densely interconnected with our everyday living patterns that suddenly imagining a world without oil seems impossible. Our social, health, educational, recreational, nearly every network is somehow more or less dependent on oil. Even the word Globalization would never have been coined if there wasn’t a massive easy accessible energy source like fossil fuels.

It is not at all clear how fast and through what stages the collapse will unfold because there are many variables which will interact differentially along the FIGURE 2: THE DOMINO EFFECT way; secondly the end of cheap oil is not going to be sudden, although much more faster than what we have in mind, but it surely will provide us with a time lag in between the end of oil and the shift to alternatives, a paradigm shift. However, we can be sure that in general the decline will follow a ‘domino effect’ and will be inexorable. By the latter decades of this century, a radically altered world will have

3

James Howard Kunstler, an American author, social critic, public speaker, and blogger, best known for his studies on declining oil production and that it is likely to result in the end of industrialized society as we know it.

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emerged, with a greatly reduced population living surrounded by the defunct debris of modernity. Our complex, ‘globalized’ world of mega states and technological advancement will be a fading memory. This is discussed in much detail in the following chapters.

GRAPH 1: GLOBAL ENERGY USE 2009- CLASSIFICATION ENERGY SOURCES BY PERCENTAGE OF CURRENT USE, ALSO CONSUMPTION PERCENTAGE OF DIFFERENT SECTORS OF A CITY

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THE PROJECT

Where and how can we plant the seeds of reconstruction of a civilization workable within the resource and environmental conditions that can be expected to prevail.

At this stage what is essential is: (1) The identification of all the aspects where human beings depend upon oil, directly or indirectly. (2) The next phase would be analysis of the parts which will destroy our current conditions of habitat i.e. the 21st century way of life. (3) After the analysis, creating a fact based scenario when the world runs out of oil. (4) Then analyzing what parts of the city undergoes most of decay and deterioration. (5) This requires a comparative analysis of the city and selection of the most suitable site having a potential for regeneration and ultimately (6) Framing a solution making it again a habitable space, not based on the current practices, but creating a new paradigm for this new pattern of oil free living.

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OBJECTIVE

This thesis is a research based hypothetical academic exercise which narrates a scenario where the world runs out of oil, studies the change in all the current forces that sustain the current human lifestyle and ultimately proposes a design solution in response to those changes.

The objective of this thesis is to envision a viable, fossil fuel independent, low energy usage future to help in evolving a practical roadmap for an ordered transition. Not going back in time from modern or present sensibilities but to have a modern society with reduced energy.

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CHAPTER 2:

WHAT IS PEAK OIL?

Peak oil is the point in time when the oil production in the world reaches its maximum, it doesn’t mean that were running out, what it means is that we are going to have a continuous decline in production from that point in time. The concept first put forward by Prof. M. King Hubbert, a Geoscientist who worked at shell research lab in Houston, Texas.

Hubbert first warned in 1949 that the world oil supplies eventually would run out, and in 1956 he used models to predict that U.S. oil production would peak and begin to decline by 1970. (As it turned out, he was off by only a year, USA peaked in 1971.) Later, in 1974, Hubbert predicted that world peak oil would occur in 1995 ‘if current trends continue.’ However, in the early 1980s, the concept going public made the global oil consumption to GRAPH 2: HUBBERT’S GRAPH V/S WORLD OIL PRODUCTION GRAPH actually drop (due to the shift to energy-efficient cars, the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating, and other factors.) Thus it dragged the peak a number of decades further.

Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by

GRAPH 3: INTERNATIONAL OIL PRODUCTION HISTORY

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2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations.

But realists say that because of the very few rulers of the world, the oil companies will never let people shift from oil to alternatives till the last drop is consumed, thus a major time delay, between shifting the dependency from oil alternatives, will hit the people way much harder than assumed.

(Greene, 2004)

GRAPH 4: GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICE (U.S. $/BBL)

The already steadily rising prices since 2000 have brought the reality of peak oil into the consciousness of common people. Peak anything, therefore, is a the result of eating more than what we produce, consuming more than what the earth can give (in this case, a handful barrels of hydrocarbons every year is what the earth can produce naturally but in comparison, we consume about 24 million barrels of oil a day) Worldwide, output from existing fields is falling by as much as 8 percent a year, which means that oil companies must develop up to seven million barrels a day in additional capacity simply to keep current output steady—plus many more millions of barrels to meet the growth in demand of about 1.5 percent a year.

Thus Peak oil is not a ‘theory.’ Because oil is a finite resource, it is a proven fact, an inevitability.

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HISTORY OF HUMAN-OIL DEPENDENCY BACKGROUND The discovery of oil is pre historic. Throughout history, fragments of information about oil and its limited uses at that time have been described by famous historians ranging from ancient Babylonian Oil Pits to other civilizations like Iraq, Greece and China. Nearly all of the usage of petroleum at that time was limited to Medicine or for burning fire. With time different people including scientists and geologists discovered new uses for petroleum till the mid-19th century, including one of the most important discovery of distillation of petroleum into kerosene, made by a Canadian Geologist Abraham Gesner (Later called the father of petroleum Industry) in 1846. This further led to the discovery of all the other components present in crude oil through the process of distillation.

FIGURE 3: CRUDE OIL DISTILLATION PRODUCTS

The real human dependency on petroleum starts approximately a hundred and fifty years ago, mainly after the invention of the first 4-stroke engine in 1862 followed by the Internal Combustion Engine that gave birth to the first mass produced automobile Ford Model T by the Ford Motor Company in 1908. From there till today, it shifted the mindset of people in terms of the speed, growth and advancement, on which we used to function in the pre-industrialization world.

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TIMELINE In this short period of time, oil allowed the world’s population to double, then triple. Food production exploded, world trade expanded and technology went to inconceivable levels. The following human oil-dependency timeline is a graphical representation to understand at a macro (global) scale that, from where have we started, where we are standing at the moment and all the events in between that led us to this current situation. Only when we begin to examine where we are – statistically, philosophically, culturally, socially and economically – and where we came from, can we make the move to a future having the least dependency on oil.

GRAPH 5: POPULATION BOOM TIMELINE

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CHAPTER 3:

SCENARIO STUDIES

THE POWER OF COMMUNITY: HOW CUBA SURVIVED PEAK OIL

MAP 1: MAP OF CUBA

BACKGROUND After the breakup of Soviet Union (1989-1993) there was a free fall economic crisis in Cuba known as the ‘special period’ that led to an artificial peak-oil crisis as more than 60% of all oil imports were cut short i.e. 13-14 million tons of imports to just 4 million. It acts as a model for what is going to take place in the rest of the world. The objective is trying to understand that what is it in the Cuban people and their culture that allowed them to live through this very difficult time.

FIGURE 4: IMMEDIATE IMPACTS ON CUBA

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IMMEDIATE IMPACTS Medicine, education, housing, and transportation were affected the most.

An average Cuban lost 20 pounds by the end of 1994, Empty roads and freeways.

Without the imported fuel, it was impossible for Cuba to generate the required amount of electricity, thus day long blackouts were common throughout the country.

FIGURE 5: CUBAN OIL IMPORTS FROM 14 TO 4 MILLION TONS LEFT

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THE CUBAN RESPONSE The way Cuba responded is an inspiration to the rest of the world. Following are the steps taken by the Cuban government and people to achieve a pattern of living least dependent on the imported oil.

TRANSPORTATION When oil supply stopped in 1990, transportation ground to a near halt. There were no cars running; public conveyance collapsed; and the streets were empty.

People walked. Around 1993, Cuba imported 200,000 Chinese bicycles.

To begin with, trucks were converted to buses by simply welding steps to the back. A skeletal frame of rods and a canopy were added. The concept was refined into the Cuba’s mass transit bus the ‘Camellone’ (The Camel). Built on a long chassis vehicle, it can accommodate 250 to 300 persons. For shorter distances there were cycle and auto rickshaws. In smaller towns, horse drawn or even mule drawn ‘cabs’ were to be spotted. Car-pooling and ride sharing is common in Cuba. There are designated government officials in yellow uniforms who have the right to pull over even government vehicles and seat people in need of transport.

FIGURE 7: ANIMAL DRIVEN TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN IN MASSIVE USE

FIGURE 8: CYCLING BEING THE MOST EFFICIENT MEANS OF COMMUTE

FIGURE 6: HUGE TRUCKS AND TROLLEYS CONVERTED TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT

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AGRICULTURE It began with a nation-wide call to increase food production by restructuring agriculture. It involved converting from conventional large-scale, high input monoculture systems to smaller scale, organic and semi-organic farming systems.

The focus was on using low cost and environmentally safe inputs and relocating production closer to consumption, in order to cut down on transportation costs. Urban agriculture played a significant part in this effort.

Front lawns of municipal buildings were dug up to grow vegetables. Offices and schools cultivated their own food. Food quality also improved as people had access to a greater variety of fresh fruits and vegetables. Urban gardens continued to grow and some neighborhoods were producing as much as 30 percent of their own food. Another key to success was opening farmers markets and legalizing direct sales from farmers to consumers.

Deregulation of prices combined with high demand for fresh produce in the cities allowed urban farmers to generate two to three times as much income as the rural professionals.

FIGURE 10: URBAN FARMING

FIGURE 9: PERMACULTURE

New biological soil inputs and organic gardening techniques were developed and perfected by Cuba’s agricultural research sector, which had already begun exploring organic alternatives to chemical controls. Also, Australian Permaculture specialists came to Cuba to assist in developing newer ways to garden and produce food. This enabled Cuba’s urban farms to become completely organic.

FIGURE 11: PROMOTING FARMER'S MARKETS

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HOUSING To reduce the commute from the city to the housing very far away, new mixed use developments were made including schools, places to work and places for recreation within walking and biking distance of people’s houses. The design provided a common space for everybody to use it, thus it is a way to keep their community alive.

FIGURE 12: OLD BUILDINGS CONVERTED INTO MIXED USE DEVELOPMENTS

ENERGY ALTERNATIVES Solar water heaters, Small scale solar panels, hydro systems and wind turbines were introduced to extract maximum energy out of there alternative forms of energy; priority was given to educational and medical buildings first, then the local household use afterwards.

OUTCOMES: CUBA TODAY

FIGURE 13: SOLAR POWER, A NECESSITY

Cuba, it would appear, is well on its way to being a fossil fuel free society. Today 80 percent of Cuban agriculture production is organic; it has rationalized its transport; and it has achieved emission standards well below the prescribed limit. Health food, clean environment and increased walking and cycling has reduced a lot of health problems in its people. Cuba also shows that a fossil fuel free society does not mean going primitive. Cuba is a modern society with access to modern science, education, health care and culture. However, one should remember, it is still in transition. (Morgan, 2006)

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TRANSITION TOWNS TOTNES: KINSALE, IRELAND VISION 2021 It is the first attempt at setting out how Kinsale, a West Cork town of about 7,000 people, could make the transition from a high energy consumption town to a low energy one.

There is an old saying, “there are three kinds of people; one who watches things happen, one who makes things happen and one who says 'what happened ?'.

It offers a timetable by which Kinsale can begin putting in place the elements it will FIGURE 14: KINSALE, IRELAND - AERIAL VIEW need in order to navigate the troubled waters ahead. It is a roadmap to sustainability, to localization, to abundance.

FOOD The Present

Kinsale is known widely as the Gourmet Capital of Ireland. Over 90% of the food consumed within Kinsale comes from outside the area, and this percentage is rapidly increasing as imports become cheaper. Farmers are being paid to let their land do nothing, whereas it could be growing food for local markets.

FIGURE 15: 90 PERCENT OF THE FOOD IS IMPORTED

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The Vision

Food growing has become an integral part of life in the town. Lawns are a thing of the past, lawnmowers now hang in pubs as old ploughs did in 2005, relics of a bizarre form of land use that people used to practice in the dying days of the Oil Age. All landscaping in the town comprises of edible plants, fruit trees line the streets, all parks and greens have become food forests and community gardens, and every back garden contains a food garden. Began once more to save and exchange seeds.

Health increased and common illnesses decreased. People are now more aware of the seasons, and a vibrant local economy in local honey, vegetables, fresh fish and poultry and fruit has now replaced the monoculture of the supermarket so popular in 2005.

EDUCATION The Present

The training of future workers is essential. The end of cheap oil however, will bring a new set of difficulties and realities that need addressing. The whole community needs to learn a combination of new ways of thinking, designing and living as well as reviving old skills and crafts to deal with the reality of decreasing fossil fuels.

The Vision

Education has been reorganized around key ecological principles. Schools themselves are model sustainable systems, generating no waste and being very energy efficient. Young people learning basic skills of food production, shelter making and self-reliance alongside their other studies. Every school has a garden and produces much of the food served in its canteen.

FIGURE 17: COMMUNITY SCHOOLS

FIGURE 16: A NEW PATTERN OF EDUCATION

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HOUSING The Present

No sustainable planning practices. Environs mainly made up of apartments and housing estates. Houses are extremely dependent on fossil fuels for heating, which expose their inhabitants to unhealthy and sometimes toxic materials, which are very expensive and do little to encourage sustainable lifestyles or community development. Very poor levels of energy efficiency, resulting in far higher per capita energy consumption.

The Vision

FIGURE 18: EXISTING ENERGY INTENSIVE HOUSING PATTERN

Providing affordable sustainable houses/buildings. All new buildings in Kinsale will include a high level of energy efficiency together with a high portion of local sustainable materials used by local craftsmen/women. Houses will be of an appropriate size, and built to last. The existing housing stock has been retrofitted, made as efficient as possible.

HEALTH The Present

At present there is a heavy reliance on oil based pharmaceuticals which are often imported long distances. There are no A&E facilities in Kinsale leaving patients reliant on ambulance services to the city. Buildings used for medical and health services are heavily reliant at present on fossil fuels for heating, lighting and medical equipment. Much knowledge concerning indigenous medicinal plant cultivation and use has been lost with the passing of the older generations.

The Vision

A flourishing array of locally grown medicinal plants and herbs. Education about the benefits of healthy, locally grown foods and healthy lifestyle are very significant. Both alternative and complementary medicine is available to all and supports the role of

FIGURE 19: EXISTING HEALTH INDUSTRY MAJORLY DEPENDENT ON OIL

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conventional medicine. Health establishments have switched to green alternatives such as wind and solar, with bio-digesters turning green waste into compost for hospital gardens.

TRANSPORT The Present

People in Kinsale sail into the harbor, but majority of them arrive by road, either by car or bus, and during the summer months the town gets extremely congested. Stressful and polluted atmosphere which is hardly attractive. Towns’ narrow streets are ideal for pedestrians and cyclists. Two-way traffic system and amount of vehicles travelling on them make it very unfriendly and unsafe. There isn’t anywhere to park your bike or safe routes for them to travel on. Local residents are in great need of more efficient public transport.

The Vision

Commuting long distances to work is no longer possible. There are fewer cars and fewer fossil fuel resources. A healthier and more localized lifestyle thus a far more pleasant and efficient place to live. The town became more selfreliant, the need for private car ownership steadily reduced. Kinsale now consists of a wide mixture of choices, from easy safe ways to get around by bicycle, car sharing clubs and lift sharing bulletin boards, improved public transport and more efficient short distance vehicles. Plans for a light railway system.

FIGURE 20: CURRENT TRANSPORT MEANS

FIGURE 21: FUTURE VISION OF KINSALE'S TRANSPORT: A LIGHT RAILWAY SYSTEM

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WASTE The Present

Kinsale is producing household, business/industrial agricultural and hospital waste. 92% of Ireland’s waste is sent to landfill. No system to deal with kitchen waste or garden waste. The collection bins are often left overflowing and the site is usually full of litter, some recycling facilities are in place for glass, cans and plastic but are inadequate.

FIGURE 22: EXISTING PATTERN OF TRANSPOR DEPENDENT WASTE MANAGEMENT

The Vision

Avoid landfill by reducing waste at source, then reusing, recycling and recovery of all remaining waste. All waste generated would be either biodegradable or used in some other process. Biodegradable waste could be used to generate energy.

FIGURE 23: WASTE SEPARATED AT SOURCE

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ENERGY

FIGURE 24: CURRENT MEANS OF ENERGY: FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENT

The Present

Kinsale town is dependent on an outside supply of oil and other fossil fuel to generate electricity and heating for homes, businesses and all public buildings. This situation is not sustainable as we are approaching a time of oil depletion.

The Vision

By 2021 the majority of its energy will come from sources within a ten-mile radius, Wind being be the main one. Other sources such as solar, anaerobic digesters and Combined Heat and Power (CHP). Actions put in place to help Kinsale in saving energy in the first place. (Hopkins, 2005)

FIGURE 25: POTENTIAL ENERGY SOURCE

FIGURE 26: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES, MAINLY SOLAR AND WIND

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CONCLUSIONS



The primary objective of these Scenario studies is to provide different directions of processes to the path to an oil free world i.e. o Either we can wait for the dooms day to come, for the oil to reach at soaring high prices to be practically impossible for most of the population to use it, and then plan for it and live in a strictly rationed, limited resource survival mode, Like in Cuba. o Or we can follow the path Kinsale has acquired, studying all our oil dependent activities that are essential for the survival of a modern city, and then provide the vision for the time of the oil crash for a smooth transition, and start planning for it from this very moment.



Secondary objective is to study all the dependencies of human lifestyle on petroleum. Cuba being a real time practical case and Ireland being a future proposal defines on what sectors of life do we depend on oil directly or indirectly.

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FICTIONAL SCENARIO STUDY LAST LIGHT BY ALEX SCARROW Alex Scarrow has written a frightening story that may seem to have an obvious premise (in a nutshell, we're far too reliant on oil); however it's all the more frightening for how little serious consideration we give this issue.

Millions of people are packed into tight urban areas, utterly reliant on a complex, sophisticated socio-economic system that delivers to them the basic nutrients of our comfortable 21st Century existence: water, food, power and security. What happens when you take one element of that away: reports of panic-buying, looting, profiteering.

This is the simple but terrifying theme explored in Last Light. But this time, it is not just a handful of counties that are affected, but the entire world, and it is not just one of the staples of life that dry up but all of them, and suddenly life as we know it is about to change.

What makes the piece of writing so compelling, and so terrifying, is that the central FIGURE 27: LAST LIGHT (BOOK TITLE COVER) premise - that our society is fragile and subject to breakdown - is utterly convincing. And that will stay with you long after you've forgotten about Andy Sutherland (one of the main characters of the story).

The author has spent a number of years researching an issue that affects us all. He has written a spine-chilling thriller that leaves the reader in no doubt, how fragile the human society has become and is now. It is only a nanosecond away from oblivion.

A brief summary of the plot as explained by the writer himself: It seems to be a very normal Monday morning. But in the space of only a few days, the world's oil supplies have been severed and at a horrifying pace things begin to unravel everywhere. And this is no natural disaster: someone is behind this. Jenny is stuck in Manchester, fighting desperately against the rising chaos to get back to London, where her children are marooned as events begin to spiral out of control; 34 | P a g e

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riots, raging fires, looting, rape and murder. In the space of a week, London is transformed into a lawless and anarchic vision of Hell. Jenny's estranged husband, oil engineer Andy Sutherland, is stranded in Iraq with a company of British soldiers, desperate to find a way home to his family, trapped as transport links and the very infrastructure of daily life begins to collapse around him. And against all this, a mysterious man is tracking Andy's family. He'll silence anyone who might be able to reveal the identities of those behind this global disaster. It seems that the same people who now have a stranglehold on the future of civilization have flexed their muscles before, at other significant tipping points in history, and they are prepared to do anything to keep their secret - and their power - safe.

(Scarrow, Last Light, 2007)

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AFTER LIGHT BY ALEX SCARROW What would Britain be like 10 years after the oil has run out? This question is the basis of Afterlight. The novel is a sequel to the author’s Last Light, having the same family, the Sutherlands, is at the center of the story.

Afterlight is set at a time 10 years after the “end of oil”, merged with flashback chapters about the days and weeks immediately after this climactic event, told in Last Light, when civilized society as we know it collapsed. It is a worthy sequel, detailing how the family copes with the aftermath, establishing a colony of survivors on an oil rig and gradually fighting their own battle for survival before they begin to reestablish civilization. We are also given flashbacks to the O2 in London, set up as an emergency point and we see how that has evolved over the years and how it might clash with the community on the oil rig. This is not just an action thriller; there is a theme about humanity and one about the choices you have to make.

FIGURE 28: AFTERLIGHT (BOOK TITLE COVER)

Secondly, this book takes the now very familiar apocalypse story on to a next level not much touched recently: when survival has been achieved, but with "civilization" gone, what sort of life is left? What sort of life is necessary?

Again the writer explains the summary of the plot as follows: The world lies devastated after the massive oil crisis that was described in LAST LIGHT. Human society has more or less entirely broken down and millions lie dead of starvation or disease. There are only one or two beacon communities that have managed to fashion a new way of living. Jenny Sutherland runs one of these groups. Based on a series of decaying offshore oil rigs - for safety - a few hundred people have rebuilt a semblance of normality in this otherwise dead world. But as Jenny and her people explore their surroundings once again, they start to realize not every survivor has the same vision of a better future than their catastrophic past.

(Scarrow, After Light, 2010)

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CONCLUSIONS



Studying fiction always help in imagining/envisioning a scenario. In order to envision Lahore after oil I have taken a lot of references from these fictions.



The two sequels have explained the fragility of the current system we survive in, very deeply. Starting from the brief look at the pre-crash situation, it moves to the massive global scale event that stopped the oil flow nearly everywhere on the planet. Next it shows the most immediate events that happen in the coming week when the news of no-more-oil goes public.



The most helpful part that is seen missing in a lot of fictional scenarios and predictions is the depiction of the life after the oil crash. How communities would be surviving after a decade, what would be the socio-cultural norms?

How different, from now, would be the life functioning patterns?



Conclusively a very good read for getting the concepts clear. I have used this sequel of fictions as an important reference in my own Narrative.

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DOCUMENTARY: WORLD WITHOUT OIL

FIGURE 29: SCREENSHOT I (WORLD WITHOUT OIL)

Aftermath is a four-part 2010 series created by History Television Canadian station. It also aired in the United States on the National Geographic Channel. It was produced by Cream Productions. It consists of a series of "experiments" looking at what would happen if planetary conditions changed drastically, within our lifetime. It is a follow-up to the TV special Aftermath: Population Zero.

FIGURE 30: SCREENSHOT II (WORLD WITHOUT OIL)

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The documentary shows a very clear scheduled scenario or events that would occur if the world’s oil supply ended right now. It is broken up to different time intervals from the day one of the oil crash up to forty years, events happening in every part have been written and illustrated below: DAY 1 Phones, trains, boats, and all vital transport shut down. Trade stopped, stock markets off, factories closed.

FIGURE 31: SCREENSHOT III (WORLD WITHOUT OIL)

DAYS 5 Unemployment over 30 percent, stock markets still closed, food terminals closed, people fight for oil, cooking oil in diesel powered cars.

DAY 30 Governments take action, only critical transport running on the reserves, i.ie ambulances and fire brigades, food delivery etc. areas where electricity comes from oil are still in blackout. Food delivery consuming the maximum amount of the left oil reserves. Alternate fuel resources start emerging: farmers start planting soybeans, sugar cane and corn to get ethanol and biodiesel. Only electric cars seen on the road.

5 MONTHS Auto industries in action, converting engines to alternate fuel compatible, i.e. hydrogen, electric, ammonia etc. corn, sugarcane, soybean planting on massive scale. Countries to suffer famines, only agrarian societies survive. Emergency reserves nearly empty. No garbage disposal, trash disposal is a luxury. Depopulation in FIGURE 32: SCREENSHOT IV (WORLD WITHOUT OIL) countries that run on food imports, people starve to death. People start home fuel production, garages and basements converted into labs to make homemade biofuel only to work on diesel cars.

Alternate oil industries grow double in size but still produces less than 1 percent of the total fuel consumption back in 2010. A major question arises, should next year’s crop be for food or for alternate fuels?

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10 YEARS Price of electricity has risen to 800 percent. Massive migrations occur. Gold copper and silver extraction from discarded electronics. Value of plastic. Emergence of recycling. Shipwrecking to get steel.

Biodiesel use grows. Value of lithium rises from Bolivia. Bolivia becomes the Saudi Arabia of this new world order.

World trade still halted because alternate energy is still not that sufficient. No air flight meaning empty airports. Algae bring the most efficient biofuel. Cargo bikes back on road.

FIGURE 33: SCREENSHOT V (WORLD WITHOUT OIL) Natural gas and coal being consumed rapidly.

40 YEARS First biodiesel jet flight, 6 flights a year. Much cleaner sky, much greener landscape, much less population. Transformation of roads, buildings, infrastructure.

Abandoned buildings become greenhouses; people are farming in downtown, New York. Parking lots reclaimed. New York central park is a massive 800 acre farm.

Gasoline gone, emergency oil reserves empty worldwide. New types of transport, more economic lights, newer electricity powered materials. Sea trade starts again, thanks to algae bio fuel. Huge biofuel plants. Electric trains link people all over the globe. Cities once again start growing.

(Minkoff, 2010) CONCLUSIONS This documentary is one of the very few graphical predictions of the aftermath scenario of a world without oil. Step wise events that are going to occur from a sudden collapse to a transitional rejuvenation of the modern life are seen here.

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CHAPTER 4:



AFTERMATHS: WHAT IS YET TO COME

Will the decline be sudden or swift?

Oil in Pakistan may decline steeply but not like a cliff, however human psychology ensures otherwise. Think what would happen if you told people the food was now going to run out. All supermarkets and food stores would be cleaned out overnight.

The reality is that when the moment it starts looking like oil is peaking and declining, the oil exporters will simply cut off the world from its energy supply and keep it for themselves; and in the anarchy that follows, they'll then realize they have to keep it solely for their military, so even their own public would not have it.

So there's a good chance due to the way humans work, that when the panic sets in energy will disappear almost overnight. (Moore K. , 2004) 

FOOD PRODUCTION WILL DECREASE at a very large scale globally, as the demand for agrochemicals (fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides and pesticides) upon which the global food chain is now so heavily dependent will not be met. But Pakistan having agriculture based semi-industrialized economy and Punjab being the agricultural hub of the country will be one of the very few agrarian societies that will be affected the least after the oil crash, at least in terms of production. We still have quite a lot percentage of traditional methods of cultivation and food production, having man-powered nontechnological techniques of farming, as seen in GRAPH 9.

The main reasons of food scarcity in the cities will not be food production, but food transportation. Food will surely continue to be produced in the rural areas (though much lesser in quantity due to the lack of tractors and tube well based and other energy intensive water distribution systems) but its transportation in massive amounts in trucks will not be possible.

On the other hand, increased world trade has resulted in huge quantities of food being transported from one part of the world to another, less oil means less transport of food (and more mass starvation)



A very VERY LESS AMOUNT OF VEHICLES will be seen on the road, we will be finding our streets full of ‘dead’ cars and empty motorways and airports. If there were any, they would be electric or powered by some fuel other than the fossil fuels, which will also eventually fade out with time. Maintenance of roads will become increasingly expensive and difficult, as asphalt supplies

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dwindle and fuel costs escalate. Transport as we know it will eventually more or less grind to a halt. 

There will be a MASSIVE DE-POPULATION due to unavailability of clean water and enough food to feed everyone. People will die of diseases from polluted water as the medical and health patterns will also change; people will kill each other in massive scale riots for clean food or water, or ultimately be weakened and will starve to death. Crime rate will also be at its peak as there will be nearly no law and order in this situation of Chaos, thus it will also play its part in de-population.



CLEAN DRINKING WATER will eventually run out as there won’t be any water purification units working due to heavy amount of energy required to run them. Even extracting the underground potable water is very energy intensive and will be a luxury in a post carbon era.



Petroleum is a fundamental input into the production of HEALTH AND MEDICINE at both the individual and population levels. Transitioning the public health and health care systems to other energy inputs will be very difficult.



NO INTERNATIONAL TRADE as there will be no flights and shipments in such a massive amount like it is right now. Meaning we would have to survive on what is available locally and if something we need is not, we might as well learn how to produce it locally. This will differ from country to country, from state to state depending on what they produce and what they get from their imports.



One of the most immediate effects will be that with time people will start losing their jobs. More and more students passing out and existing workers being unemployed will be responsible for a massive increase in unemployment percentage. The only job will be to survive on your own. We will experience THE WORST OF ALL THE GREAT DEPRESSIONS. Imagine how many people will be jobless when all the complex systems we rely on today immediately shut down.



In the current modern world, the oil is still very cheap, try to walk the distance that a gallon of gasoline can carry you, and you will see how cheap it is. As you, and everyone else, will be forced to spend a lot more on fuel, you will be forced to cut back on spending on everything else.

What happens when people stop spending money going out to eat, buying clothes, going on vacations, etc.? The jobs of the people who provide all

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those goods and services disappear, and the economy spirals downward resulting in a massive BREAKDOWN OF THE ECONOMIC CYCLE. 

The huge loss of jobs will lead to a more local economy. Industries that are needed like food housing and textiles – the famous – ‘roti, kapra aur makaan’ will survive but at a more local and regional level. The technology will become simpler and often based on biological processes. Related local industries will survive. This will generate a large number of new jobs and CRAFTSMANSHIP WILL ONCE AGAIN FLOURISH.



GAS AND ELECTRICITY GRIDS will fail initially sporadically but will be there in a very less percentage because the current 70 percent of the energy produced internationally is by means of fossil fuels, 20 percent with nuclear and the rest 10 percent is hydro and non-hydro renewable resources. Thus only the pre-crash installed hydro or other power stations will be generating electricity, still in very less efficiency from what is done today.



COMMUNICATION AND ELECTRONIC DEVICES such as mobile phones, laptops, tablet PCs and other technological gadgets have a chance to survive because of their low energy consumption and their ability to run smoothly on alternative energy resources. Meaning, nearly all electronic devices will function. Granted, complicated things like computers will break down quickly and will not be replaced, since they use specialized components that could only by produced in highly complex manufacturing operations, but any committed amateur could repair or even build a new radio from scratch (a small population surrounded by junk produced by a prior much larger and much richer population will have no problems scrounging the necessary materials).



High Rise buildings, parking garages and plazas, parking lots, petrol stations, car showrooms, drive in cinemas, Roads, highways, airports, train stations etc. will all be abandoned and the most DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE of our city.



We will experience the DEATH OF SUBURBIA. Cities will be hard hit, but suburbs will be hit even harder by the coming decline in oil production.

Currently these poorly designed settlements not only depend on importing everything, they are also isolated geographically from educational, recreational, medical and corporate sectors of the city. People need to drive for virtually everything they need. Thus a society dependent on oil to this extent will wither the most.



The CITY WILL RESHAPE ITSELF according to the nodes (MAP 3). Connection between different nodes and interdependency within a node will be of prime

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importance. Activities will generate at the core of a node and then spread outwards. The future of growth of the city will inhabit this pattern. 

In a post carbon world, there will be no "away" where we can throw things on the planet. Any kind of WASTE MANAGEMENT will be a luxury. Thus the concept of Reduce – Reuse – Recycle will be a necessity.



EDUCATION SYSTEM is going to reorganize too. The existing education system will somehow be impaired. Taking example of my own Institute (National College of Arts, Lahore), due to its importance, people come from 10 to 20 kilometers away. In a post oil period, the schools with easiest accessibility will have more value. The concept of community schools will flourish.

The oil crash will bring a new set of difficulties and realities that need addressing. New born and young children’s education will have an essential part of training them how to survive i.e. preparing their own food, protection from others and from weather, from disease. The whole community needs to learn a combination of new ways of thinking, designing and living.

 COMMUNITY LIFE: the modern world has turned us into discontented, lonely, isolated people amidst an impersonal sea of people we don't know.

How does energy-loss affect community? In the short term, the disappearance of energy would combine with Climate Change to cause huge social disaster on a world scale. But in many ways, it may enable us to prevent its worst destruction, and force us to restore the happiness that comes with a simpler, community lifestyle. At the end of the day, people will only be happy in a personal world of sacrificial love and care, and lifeaffirming solidarity; the world today is an increasingly impersonal world that will never make humans happy, except by a constant glut of material things that destroys the earth. 

Without any intercity or international transport available, there will be a massive DECLINE IN INTERNATIONAL TOURISM, on which many of the countries’ economic system survive.

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CHAPTER 5: FROM GLOBAL TO TERRITORIAL

So far the issues discussed have been global in nature. While the crisis is truly global, the intensity and typology of impacts will differ from country to country; from region to region. The problems faced by United Kingdom will not be the same as they will be for Pakistan, similarly Lahore will not follow the path to deterioration as New York or any other city will. Each geographical location will get affected according to its level of dependency of oil. The one most oil independent will be able to survive the easiest, and vice versa.

Thus looking at Pakistan at a macro level and then coming to the city, we can have an idea of what might be the situation in this specific region, Lahore. Following is a list of statistics showing the level of fossil fuel dependency in Pakistan.

STATUS OF PETROLEUM SECTOR IN PAKISTAN Pakistan’s economy is growing steadily. This growth demands higher energy consumption and consequently putting high pressure on countries economy. Oil, Natural gas and hydro are the three primary energy resources of the country which are being exploited for fulfilling energy demands of the economy. Indigenous resources of Oil are not enough to quench energy thirst of the growing economy. As a result Pakistan has to import large quantity of oil and oil based products from Middle East countries.

GRAPH 6: CRUDE OIL IMPORTS TIMELINE, PAKISTAN (SOURCE: CIA WORLD FACTBOOK)

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As of November 2009, Pakistan had consumed approximately 397 thousand barrels of oil and various petroleum products per day, of which, more than 85 percent was imported. According to Pakistani government estimates, generating capacity needs to grow by 50 percent by 2012 in order to meet expected demand.

(Ahmad & Jha, 2008)

GRAPH 7: CRUDE OIL CONSUMPTION (YELLOW) V/S PRODUCTION (BLUE) TIMELINE, PAKISTAN (SOURCE: CIA WORLD FACT BOOK)

As clear from Graph 7, net oil imports of Pakistan are projected to rise in coming years as demand for these products are very high and production capacity is very low, at a constant rate. Thus we are looking forward to a time of a very high oil imports.

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

GASOLINE DIESEL

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GRAPH 8: GASOLINE/DIESEL PRICE TIMELINE (SOURCE: PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK 2011)

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OIL CONSUMPTION BY USER SECTOR In Pakistan transport sector in the biggest user of the petroleum products which accounts about 46.3 percent followed by power generation which uses about 46.1 percent, and industrial sector which has a share of 5.1 percent while remaining is shared by the residential sector. Concluding, the maximum amount of dependency of petroleum in Pakistan is for Transportation (Jet Fuel, Diesel, and Gasoline) and for Power Generation (Electricity, Hydro Power, etc.) (Sheikh, 2010)

GRAPH 9: PAKISTAN’S PETROLEUM PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR (SOURCE: PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK 2010)

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POST PETROLEUM LAHORE

MAP 2: CHRONOLOGICAL SPATIAL EXPANSION OF LAHORE

Map 2 shows the historical spatial expansion of Lahore. A rapid increase in the rate of expansion is seen after 1900s i.e. after the world went through the industrial revolution. Mobility, speed, technology and the age of industry allowed us to expand beyond our limits, not because it was the right thing to do, just because we had the power to do it. The distances that people could not imagine covering before suddenly became hours, even minutes away. We also started following the ‘American dream’ and so much fuel at such a little price back then played a very significant role in this massive horizontal sprawl of Lahore we have today.

Generally human well-being rests on 3 pillars: ECONOMIC (e.g., production, employment, income, wealth, markets, trade), SOCIOPOLITICAL (e.g., national and personal security, liberty, justice, law, education, health care, science, arts, civil society and culture), and ENVIRONMENTAL (e.g., air, water, soil, mineral resources, biota, and climate). For sustainable human well-being, each of the 3 pillars is indispensable; none can be identified as most important, and they are highly interdependent. Petroleum scarcity is highly likely to affect each of these 3 pillars.

Lahore will have specific aftereffects, depending upon the geography, culture, lifestyles, and most importantly the amount of fuel dependency in nearly every field of life. Following are some of the major points defining Lahore in a post petroleum era (on the assumption that we follow the same consumption pattern that we have been following for the past 100 years).

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MAP 3: 24 IDENTIFIED CITY CENTERS OF LAHORE (SOURCE: OCCO, LAHORE)

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CHAPTER 6:

SITE SELECTION

SITE SELECTION CRITERIA Understanding, the aftermath at a local and regional level requires the study of a physical functioning site having a considerable amount of fossil fuel dependency. This leads to a macro study of the city, the variety it offers and studying different impacts on different urban fabrics respectively. The study includes areas having different density, interdependency, multiplicity of usage, and most importantly level of dependency on fossil fuels.

POTENTIAL SITES: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS Three sites are chosen within the city, depending on the three different typologies of the fabrics the city offers. Comparative study of these three will provide us with the decision of the perfect site that is firstly going to deteriorate in a post carbon world and also having much permeability for possible interventions required for a transition to an oil free life style.

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ICCHRA

MAP 4: SATELLITE IMAGE: ICCHRA

Communities like Ichra are one of the very few indigenous settlements in Lahore.

-- Ichra being a village outside the walled city has grown since that time on the principals of organic growth.

-- Much of the pattern of walled city itself is seen here. Natural mixed use, walkability, vernacular energy efficiency etc. are some of the important points.

-- As the settlement is already extremely dense, it has no margin of being retrofitted.

FIGURE 34: STREET IN ICCHRA COMMERCIAL MARKET

FIGURE 35: AERIAL VIEW: ICCHRA URBAN FABRIC

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Thus there will be no mass migration during the oil shock.

- thus, according to all the research on survival after the oil crash, urban fabrics similar to this will be among those who will have a less impact of the end of oil, and will be one of the longest surviving communities.

-- thus at a micro level, little effort will be required to get the place running as it is now, after the end of easy oil.

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LAKE CITY

MAP 5: SATELLITE IMAGE: LAKE CITY

-- starting with the simple statement: when the world hits the oil crash, any kind of sub-urban developments will be the first ones to die.

-- very strict land use, mainly housing and recreation and very less amount of commercial, corporate and institutional usages meaning all these activities have to be done at the city centers i.e. daily commute to and fro from the city.

-- Concept of big box stores (or super-markets) in the suburbs has led to the reduction in the local economy culture.

Residents from all over MAP 6: LAKE VIEW MASTERPLAN the community come via cars to a single big box stores (like metro, macro) just to get daily use goods.

-- Extreme dependency on transportation, daily extremely long distance commute to and from work/school will be impossible without easily accessible fuel.

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-- What survival in a post oil world requires to maximum community life, any monoculture societies will collapse. Suburbia is the perfect model for a community level.

--the suburbs only cater a single higher economic class of the city, which is a very less percentage of population on the city. Thus for such small amount of people, such massive amount of energy is being consumed. This will not be possible in a post carbon era.

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LIBERTY, GULBERG

MAP 7: SATELLITE IMAGE: LIBERTY, GULBERG

--location, array of services, mix of program, attractor and crowd puller.

-- High intensity of mixed use, gulberg is the perfect example of transformation from a purely residential to a commercial center of the city.

-- it is a city magnet, great amount of commercial, corporate, residential, recreational, educational, medical and other activities present in a single zone.

-- Integration of these different activities within the site and their dependence on oil will be of prime importance.

-- It has the margin of being retrofitting, as it is not that highly dense. Retrofitting has been seen in past during the shift in land use, and it still has the potential of densification in the times after oil.

-- Dependency on automobile, that is going to be one of the biggest impacts after oil depletion, is at an intermediate level in this area.

FIGURE 37: LIBERTY MARKET SHOPPING AREA

-- it also has connections to some of

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the important nodes of the city, i.e. main market, kalma chowk, m.m.alam road, jail road, gaddafi stadium etc. in a post oil city, the connection between important city centers and nodes will become very significant for survival.

-- And apart from being one of the 24 identified city centers, it has also become a geographical center.

-- The success of the market has triggered commercial activity in the surrounding area like a ripple effect.

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CHAPTER 7:

THE SITE: LIBERTY, GULBERG

FIGURE 38: AERIAL VIEW: LIBERTY MARKET PARKING AREA

URBAN SIGNIFICANCE Liberty is the heart of the Gulberg Area in Lahore. Situated just off the Main Boulevard, it has direct connections to some very important nodes in the city, including Kalma Chowk and Barket Market. Gulberg is the geographical center of the present day Lahore city, and liberty being the retail center is one of the important nodes of the city. Its own importance as a node has grown significantly over the years as it has developed into one of Lahore’s most prominent commercial centers, thus acting as a magnet point and a huge crowd puller. The historical development of the area plays an important role in the urban significance of the area. Initially designed as a residential area, suburbs for elite of the Lahore of 1950’s, with time there has been a drastic change in the land use of this specific area, which makes it one of the very rich places in Lahore. The different land activities include Residential, commercial, corporate, educational, eateries, public and private services, parking, abandoned and religious. One of the main reasons of this shift, from a suburban settlement to the present Gulberg, is its central location and ease of access. It is

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connected by all the major functioning networks of the city including Canal Bank Road, Main Boulevard Gulberg, Ferozepur Road and Jail Road.

Even after such transformation of the area being densified with time, it is still a very permeable site having being contained in sharp boundaries, which provides us with a potential area to work on for the transition to a world without oil. (Shahbaz, 2009)

FIGURE 39: AERIAL VIEW: LIBERTY MARKET 1984

FIGURE 40: AERIAL VIEW: LIBERTY MARKET TODAY 2010

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ACTIVITY INTEGRATION: SPATIAL ORGANIZATION AND USE PATTERN A detailed landuse analysis in the form of mappings is shown (MAP 8) followed by individual breakdown into single land activities (MAP 147 - MAP 16). The rich historical development of the area and the multiplicity of the landuse can be easily seen in these.

MAP 8: COMPOSITE LANDUSE MAP

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MAP 9: LANDUSE: RESIDENTIAL AREAS

MAP 12: LANDUSE: GREEN AREAS

MAP 10: LANDUSE: EDUCATIONAL AREAS

MAP 11: LANDUSE: PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SERVICES

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MAP 14: LANDUSE: COMMERCIAL AREAS

MAP 13: LANDUSE: ABANDONED, UNDERCONSTRUCTION AND GREY AREAS

MAP 15: LANDUSE: CORPORATE AREAS

MAP 16: LANDUSE: EATERIES

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MAP 17: LIBERTY TREE MAPPING

MAP 18: EXISTING PEAK TRAFFIC DENSITIES

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CHAPTER 8:

BUILDING A SCENARIO

In order to envision an oil-independent design for the Gulberg, the realization of all the problems that would occur during and after the oil crash is important. ‘Thus what is needed is a hypothesis of Gulberg (or Liberty to be precise) after oil if we continue on the path that we currently are following.

The preparation for the cataclysmic conditions4 ahead requires envisioning the worst case scenario of what is yet to come. Thus I have considered oil depletion as a dooms day scenario to extract as many design considerations as I can to get if not perfect then a better design for a smooth transition.

WHERE AM I? Today I stand here, the place where I was born, the city I dwelled and spent all my life in. I created so many memories here, experienced some of the most precious moments of my life. Still…here I stand staring at such a strange and unsettling sight, hardly recognizing this place. It resembles the iconic images of a society long-dead, like in the old post-apocalyptic movie scenes where cities were left abandoned, with weeds pushing through the cracks in the roads. Coming back here after such a long time this all seems too alien.

These withered streets were once my playground; these destroyed buildings formed the surroundings of my ever so ideal life. Only if I knew it back then, I would have cherished each and every moment of it instead of letting it pass by casually. So much has changed since that day, the day the Prime Minister made the news public that the world had finally realized that it had hit the ‘peak oil’ I never imagined that our society could become so fragile, so vulnerable, and so dependent on a single entity, that by erasing it, we would end up in a catastrophe like this. No one really had an idea how far too reliant on oil we had become. That is why the period is often termed as ‘The Oil Shock’ as the majority had it all coming by a surprise.

Remembering all that has happened since then is nearly impossible for me.

So many events unraveled that were the effects of some and at the same time became a cause for other events to occur. It was like a domino effect where by pushing a single component, the whole system collapsed. Starting from a little earlier

4

Once all the events start unwrapping and the news goes public that oil is no more with us; there will be a catalytic chain reaction of events that will lead the society to destruction. Every event will trigger another event and in totality everything will be affected simultaneously.

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in 2010, when I started to find about oil scarcity, that it was going to end soon. When people like Richard Heinberg, Deffeyes, J.H. Kunstler and a dozen more started predicting the end of oil. It was that time around when all these people started writing books and producing documentaries that made this news public.

THE FOLLOWING YEARS Here in Lahore two kinds of people lived parallel to each other. The ones who were aware of the oil situation, if not clearly than at least they had a vague hint of what was to come. The other type, a much bigger chunk of the population (more than 95 percent), were the ones who were completely clueless, who were so busy living their lives and fulfilling their needs that they didn’t even had the time to spare a glance at the unforsaken situation ahead.

Even back then, nature showed so many signs from where we could have acquired a different, better and less oil reliant path, but we did not, simply because we had the power to follow a luxurious one. The prominent change in earth’s climate was becoming a reality. Tsunamis, floods, draughts, melting glaciers and other catastrophes were clear warnings for us that something was not right. I always stated that these natural disasters were earth’s revenge to the human exploitation of nature, in our case the over excessive extraction and consumption of fossil fuels.

The naivety of the masses kept rising with the rise in oil prices. People continued blaming the government and corruption in the system for the rise, completely ignorant of the fact that oil was a finite resource bound to reach its end.

Following the oil peak the Arab countries, like vultures feeding on human flesh, concentrated on exhausting the earth of the little oil it had. Petrol price per liter rose from 30 rupees in 2000 to 192 rupees in 2015. A 960% increment in price was not normal, still it was ignored. We kept on using oil because we were so addicted to it and nobody realized this until the day it was snatched from our hands.

From the year 2010 to 2015, things became increasingly difficult for everyone. Soaring high fuel prices were experienced, along with food shortage and extremely high prices of fruits, vegetables and everyday edible items available. In short there was a price boom in nearly every sector of human life. With the same pays and jobs and a considerable amount of unemployment, life became unbearable for a common man. The gap between the higher and lower economic class was at its peak. The rich, being very less in number and the ruling body of the city had very less or no problems to face, whereas the poorer part of the population were the ones who suffered the most.

Fuel rationing was at its worst, week-long CNG and petrol load shedding was a common occurrence. I remember a major riot later in the year 2014 that sparked when people lost their patience after standing for hours in a que at the Shadman

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Petrol station. Not getting any fuel for their cars, rikshaws and motorbikes, people forcefully started grabbing all that was left in the petrol booths ending in a fight with the station employees. A moment later the whole station was set on fire resulting in 3 deaths and a dozen injured with a huge loss of municipal property.

THE SPEECH Many similar events followed in the news that year, many died in stampedes in Sunday markets and other food outlets across the country. At the same time crime rate soared to its highest levels. Robberies, stealing, mobile snatching etc. were a few of the hundreds of cases registered daily at the police stations. Not forgetting the electricity load shedding, 14 to 16 hours of daily blackouts became a norm. People with sources of income depending directly on electricity were helpless.

Overall, life grew grim in every way.

Amidst all this came a dark, impending sermon on the 31st of October, 2015.

Everyone from my time remembers this date faithfully because that Saturday afternoon our lives changed forever. That day, a much awaited prime minister’s address to the public was due. Everyone had their hopes attached to this address thinking that the government would bring a rescue plan that would save them from those chaotic times they were living in. But things didn’t work out the way they thought they would.

The minister himself tried to stifle the panic that grasped his voice but failed in doing so. A terror struck him as he started speaking. A general summary of his two hour long speech was that the Arab states have finally realized that the world crossed its peak in oil extraction back in 2010, since that year the oil production has continuously declined. Thus OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has cut short all export to Pakistan to 86 percent.

Pakistan being a third world country had very less local oil production and all the imported reserves were at their last stages and would be kept only for emergency services. Those services included primarily our Military, after that the Police, hospitals, fire depots and similar departments. There was to be a much lesser percentage of electricity, food, water and other facilities both for domestic and industrial use. We are to ration the food we had, restrict the sale of petrol and diesel to key personnel, in short, pull together and cut short our energy consumption as much as we could. A catastrophe had hit us and we could only deal with it if we act as a nation‌

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THE NEXT TWO WEEKS With each word the minister uttered, a wave of panic rose among the individuals. The speech hadn’t even ended yet that my father grabbed me, started his car and drove all the way to Hyperstar (one of the much successful big-box superstores of that time). He grabbed all the necessary eatables, preferably canned food, and we stocked up the car as much as we could. I suddenly realized that we were not alone in this activity, the car park that was minutes ago half empty, was then jam-packed, with cars, and people on foot flooding in. From the superstore, we went straight to the first fuel station we could find and after waiting for 2 hours in line my father got filled every container we had, with petrol. Petrol prices had already in the previous 3 hours rose from 192 to 246 rupees per liter.

Later that night, news of fights, riots and stampedes out in the markets and city centers was heard, most of the shops looted, a number of them burnt already. I was surprised at how little it had taken to rip apart the peace and order; at least within central Lahore. No one was starving yet, probably not even hungry. But the mere mention of food rationing by the government had driven them all into a state of panic, further worsened by the hysterical way the media had responded.

People, scared hiding in their houses and prayed for this mess to end but it kept on increasing in intensity with every passing minute. Everyone thought that this was a temporary phase and things will eventually sort themselves out, but deep inside their hearts they knew that this was not normal, this phenomenon was of a much higher magnitude.

In the days that followed, mainly the next two weeks, were the worst of all.

Public transport was shut down including busses, trains stations and airports. Private transport was available to those who either had the money to buy petrol for 372 rupees per liter or had the right connections. There were 20 supply stations set in the city by the CDGL with soldiers stationed outside every one of them, to provide people with little amounts of food and water. But as expected, massive amount of people in groups (mainly youngsters) started looting these stations. Many who opposed giving up their precious food were injured; many were killed too. The army was allowed to fire open rounds at public; whoever tried to rob the supplies by force was shot dead.

Terror and insecurity were at their maximum. There wasn’t any police or any kind of administration seen out on the roads other than these depots and fuel stations. Law and order apparently vanished from the streets of Lahore. Reports had been coming in from media correspondents that similar patterns of events were seen in many other cities all over Pakistan. The all so educated and sophisticated 21 st century human being came down upon doing anything to fulfill their own and their children’s basic needs.

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For a long time after the crash, the world really was dark. With no generated power, there were no lights at night except for the flickering of fires, candles and oil lamps; the pinprick signs of life of small communities dotted here and there that had found a way to keep going.

THE MIGRATION Thinking of those days still gives me a shudder. I thank my father for his wise decision of leaving the city immediately and moving to our village near MuridKe called Salamat Pura. We packed all our essentials and with what was left in the tanks of our cars, we drove to the village leaving everything else behind us. And like us everyone who had the chance availed it and left the city (or country if they had the sources) as soon as they could. There, we had security from all the violent scavengers, good and healthy locally grown food to eat and a peaceful place to sleep. Different villages started intensifying due to mass movement from cities to towns.

Everyone (256 people including children, parents and grandparents) who migrated from Lahore to Salamat Pura with us were traumatized after having seen all these inhumane events unravel. We all were in a shock. By then we had accepted the fact that we were to re-establish a lifestyle much simpler, local and resilient than the one we were used to. The electricity supply was nearly zero in the villages and with no fuel for the transport even for the tractors, life here was going to be at its most primitive.

A consensus was set up that all the survivors from the city and people from the village (a total population now of 756 individuals), were now a family. Starting a new life at this stage would require a much higher level of interconnection and interdependency than what we had back in the cities. In short, the value of community life rose considerably during the five years we spent at the village. With this aim we started this new life, not very sure where we were heading, suppressing the silent worrying questions hidden in our minds. Who knew how to do the basic things to survive? How to grow their own food? How to locate drinkable water? How to sterilize a small cut so it doesn’t become infected? How to make a loaf of bread?

Etc. But with time, and experience we were able to sustain ourselves with what we had there. Normal people who once had jobs and mortgages, now had this new life, attempting to revive, to learn the everyday skills of a time long before we had oil doing everything for us. We had already mastered so many of those skills of survival, the basics like . . . how to make soap, how to make bread from grain. The simple things that we never even bothered to look into before. And there’s still so more much to do, we’re kept busy.

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The purpose of life back then was very different from what it is today.

Gaining knowledge, knowing about the world, knowing about myself were the questions I had. The purpose of life was not only to work all day long producing food for the evening and sleep in worry for the next day. Many people, including two of my cousins, who migrated here to the village, could not keep up with this life and went back to the city. The question occurred again and again, is this the real purpose of our lives? To survive? All what we gained from the Oil Boom wasted just like that?

How could have those two weeks destroyed everything we achieved in the past 150 years? These questions occurred in the mindsets of every one living in Salamatpura.

Deep inside we all missed the city life and not a day passed without us wishing of going back. No one knows what happened to Anum and Dawar, we have accepted them to be no longer with us.

THE RETURN From time to time we got news of the situation in the city, through the radio.

Once every two weeks the elders of the village went back to the city on animal driven carts with guns and firearms (whatever was left of them) in case of any attack.

Following a list we made of what we wanted from the city, they used to get them for everybody scavenging through the scraps, they brought back whatever they could find. These included things we could not produce in the village, like clothes, shoes, batteries, etc. Initially, right after the migration, horrific stories often accompanied back with these trips. These included people becoming savages, dying of starvation, thirst and illnesses caused by eating and drinking contaminated food and water, having no medical care to treat the simple, easily curable diseases like diarrhea, typhoid, pneumonia etc.

With the loss of my cousins Anum and Dawar, my parents kept me away from the city for a very long time. Nobody ever knew how much I longed of going back to the place where I was born, Gulberg. After spending 5 years in this village, I finally got the opportunity to accompany the elders on a trip to the city. I had prayed that all the savages, scavengers, looters, etc. must have vanished a long time ago because 5 years relying on leftovers and scraps, without anything new producing, is practically impossible. They all must have died or moved out in search of communities like ours.

We started our journey on a horse driven cart with two bicycles laden over it and covered a distance of 22 kilometers from the village to Lahore. As we travelled, I experienced the city in a way I had never done before. Every major road and motorway out of Lahore was now a graveyard of cars, vans and trucks - a carpet of immobile metal rooftops, the rust spreading beneath their paintwork. We entered the city passing through many little villages like ours. The sight they offered got me thinking on the lines of re-use, re-cycle and re-store. A house made entirely by

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staking tires, another made from the assemblage of rubble was innovative. Similar patterns followed thus, people had reused cars as planters for growing their food. It filled me with sympathy to watch the once rulers of the roads standing silently, with indigenous flowers and crops sprouting from their once occupied seats and trunks.

LIBERTY TODAY Standing here looking at this place today, I had never experienced Liberty like this before, how strangely silent it has become. No noise of people, no rumble of traffic, nothing at all on the roads except dead shells of cars. On either side, every shop burnt and windows gone with goods spilled out on the street; washing machines, electric heaters and Air conditioners, spread across from pavement to pavement as if they are of no value at all. It seems most of the damage and mess was focused around the many grocers, Halal mini-markets and restaurant takeaways.

Noor Jehan Road that should have been humming with traffic, the pavements rich with pedestrians and groceries, Flowers and Bouquets laid out on benches and tables, alongside fresh paratha rolls getting fried with tasty bar b que. But instead everything is so eerily quiet.

Greenery is sprouting from every corner, cracks in the roads, sidewalks, even from the building facades. Much of the infrastructure withered, still seems potentially reusable, even the rubble from these buildings can prove of good use if administrated properly. At closer inspection I see light coming from some of the rooms in the abandoned buildings, my mind races into thinking WAPDA came back, aliens, or maybe my eyes are playing a trick on me. But the light kept on glowing, not the flickering light of a candle but a persistent flow of those quanta particles.

Confused I looked around for answers and soon got them. The jam-e-shirin park was blooming with corn crops. A major part of the park had been turned into a corn field and it struck me..Bio-fuel!! I even see solar heaters and rainwater harvesters on their roofs. Inspecting the area in detail unveils the hidden layers that people have imposed on it. How intelligent these people were, only If they had mended their ways a little earlier. I remember when the oil age was almost dying, a surplus idea began circulating providing alternate solutions to oil, one was this bio diesel. People had at last started thinking and acting on those alternate lines.

Back in the village, people remain uninformed as to how the city has changed. The violent, chaotic image of the city is embedded deep in their minds.

Parents frightened of the concept of allowing their children to go back to the city have named it “ the forbidden city “, scaring away even those who were a little willing. But standing here today, I see a great potential in this area. Potential of rejuvenation, of restarting our lives afresh, not on the same path that led us here.

Instead, using all what is abundant now, re-using what is left as remnants and stitching all the broken fabric that oil exploitation landed us in.

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It saddens me to see the lives and things we have lost but a greater worry is perhaps the survival of those who have survived. Though our community may have grown small but the will live to grow. The slight hint of local electricity production shows us a hope towards a brighter future. All the abandoned places can provide residences for new users. The original distribution of use of the area will have no meaning in this new world.

EPILOGUE When I look back at the past, analyze my whole life, I term this as the Oil Age. Just like all those other ages; the Stone Age, the Bronze Age, the Steam Age . . . it’s been and gone. I wonder what my children’s children will make of the weathered and faded mail order catalogues they’ll undoubtedly come across, everything lavishly powered by electricity; giant American-style fridge freezers, those extravagant patio heaters, electric sonic-pulse hi-spin toothbrushes, automatic can-openers. God, did we really get that lazy?

I am glad though that I am alive, and my kids will mend eventually. Things will eventually knit themselves back together again. All those empty cities, full of burned homes and looted shops . . . one day everyone will migrate back to them. When it all finally comes back together again, I envision it to be very very different from what it used to be.

By: Roushan Mir (Kiran Naeem Ed.)

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FIGURE 41: LIBERTY BEFORE AND AFTER THE OIL CRASH

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CHAPTER 9:

TOWARDS A NEW PARADIGM

"In order to change an existing paradigm you do not struggle to try and change the problematic model.

You create a new model and make the old one obsolete. That, in essence, is the higher service to which we are all being called."

Buckminster Fuller

Having visualized all the conditions in a post-carbon Liberty, the next step would be to look for opportunities that would help us take our current way of life to its next level. After having achieved so much during this fast paced era that we call ‘the oil age’, what we need to do is to move ahead instead of returning to the past.

With all the current knowledge we have gained, how can we grow a community with sustainability in its true meanings? What will be the new needs in this post oil time?

How is life going to sustain itself now with this huge energy resource minimized?

What will be the new systems on which our lifestyle will depend upon? How can we utilize the remnants of the pre-crash city i.e. all the infrastructure that is being withered, how can it be re-used? These are the questions which define my design criteria and considerations.

DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS The above questions help me derive the following needs that later on define the program on my project. These are the needs that the society moving back to liberty in the year 2025 will require.      

Very strong community life Revitalization of the impaired and inaccessible fabric Retrofitting and intensification Future Architecture and infrastructure construction Adaptive re-use of the existing abandoned buildings Systems and services

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DESIGN OUTCOMES AND SCOPE OF WORK

The program for the new community to reside in remnants of the liberty market are as follows:



A COMMUNITY CENTER: o The community center will contain the following program: Community club Multipurpose hall Restaurant Health and diagnostic center Classrooms Library Youth center o It will be designed on the following parameters: Arbor modeling (discussed in the next heading), Structural limitations of the process, Growth pattern, Environmental forces and Program requirements.



A NEW USE DEFINED for the existing buildings:

Adaptive re-use of one building, defining the pattern for all the similar buildings in the area.



A pattern of CONNECTING THE ABANDONED INFRASTRUCTURE to a core (community center in this case):

In order to rejuvenate the accesses to all the buildings higher that 5 floors, they will have to be connected through bridging them with the core. Detail of one building will be shown i.e. how the bridges interact with the building.

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

A PATTERN OF RETROFITTING the existing fabric:

This part will define how the existing residential houses can be retrofitted using the same technique of arbor modeling.



A model RESIDENTIAL UNIT for 2 to 4 people defining the new method of construction in the future when there will be no more conventional architecture (that is used today).



All the SYSTEMS required to sustain this community:

A footprint will be given at the master plan level of the systems according to the areas required: Food Production Water Systems Electricity Generation

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GRAFTING: GUIDED GROWTH OF NATURE Grafting is defined as the art of joining two pieces of living tissues (of same or different species) together in such a manner that they subsequently grow and develop as one composite entity. This process is seen in nearly every form of natural growth, even in human beings. The plastic surgery and controlled bone growth in medical science follows the very same principal. In simple words it can be explained as Guided Growth of Nature.

Another common term for this process is called Arbor Sculpture, and the people excelling in this field are known as arbor sculptors or simply arborists. It is an ancient 2500 years old wellpracticed exercise (even in Pakistan). Different arborists have created marvelous forms sculpted for function, as a creative outlet or to explore properties of plants as living organisms.

The process consists of two basic techniques, pleaching and pruning: Pleaching is the technique of weaving branches together into a flat plane. Branches are woven together and lightly tied. Branches in close contact may grow together, due to a natural phenomenon called inosculation.

FIGURE 42: GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF NATURAL GRAFTING PROCESS

Pruning is a horticultural practice involving the selective removal of parts of a plant, such as branches, buds, or roots. Reasons to prune plants include deadwood removal, shaping (by controlling or directing growth), improving or maintaining health, reducing risk from falling branches, preparing nursery specimens for transplanting, and both harvesting and increasing the yield or quality of flowers and fruits. The practice entails targeted removal of diseased, damaged, dead, non-productive, structurally unsound, or otherwise unwanted tissue from crop and landscape plants. (Link, June 2008)

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FIGURE 43: STEP WISE PROCESS OF TREE-GRAFTING, PEELING, JOINING, BINDING, OPENING, FINAL FORM

Species options: In a given region, any disease and insect resistant species that grow well there, especially thin-barked species that commonly inosculate in nature might be good candidates for shaping. Nearly every type of plants and trees go through the process of grafting, what’s variable is the rate of growth.

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ARBOR -TECTURE The word Arbor-Tecture, short for “arboreal architecture�, is a simple concept: making living buildings. It does not mean buildings made of earthen materials, not ones that incorporate greenery or regenerative technologies such as constructed wetlands or biological wastewater purification. What it means is buildings made from trees grown, led, shaped and grafted together. Buildings that, since they are alive, will grow stronger over time and have the capacity to heal themselves.

WHY ARBO-TECTURE? Edibility: In congruence with ecology as the guiding principal, this living home is designed to be nearly entirely edible so as to provide food to some organism at each stage of its life cycle. While inhabited, the home’s gardens and exterior walls continually produce nutrients for people and animals. As a direct contributor to the ecosystem it supports an economy comprised of truly breathing products not reconstituted or processed materials.

Renewal: The seasonal cycles help the tree structure provide for itself through composting of fallen leaves in autumn. Seedlings started in such a nutrient rich bed may provide the affordable building blocks for a new home typology, firmly rooted to place.

Likewise, realization of living structures would introduce forest renewal to an urban setting.

Rethinking budget: In departing from the modern sense of home construction, compilation of a budget for this prototype inherently opens the debate surrounding decision-making and green architecture. A true representation of sustainable value can be achieved by explicitly recognizing the Adaptive, renewal, cooperative, evolutionary, and longevity characteristics of the home. Installation of heating, lighting, plumbing, electrical, and communication systems will be no more than that for a typical home, and should be less due to the systems integrated design of natural ventilation, gravity water flow, day lighting and passive solar design.

Structural advantages: Living grown structures are more resistant to decay than harvested ones. They decay from the inside out unlike the dead wood which decays from the outside in. Every tree growth in nature follow the process of compartmentalization, meaning living wood tissue wields a very potent defense against decay from either direction. Grown

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structures also have several mechanical structural advantages when compared to structures built using artificial joints and joinery.

Long-Life: Life span of a house produced by natural tree growth is not even comparable to what we have in our conventional building methods. It includes the initial time period of growth from roots to the fully achieved height/length, the time from full growth till its death, and further the time period after death till its structural incapability and fall. There is no fixed or even average time period of this life span; the eldest living tree is more than 4800 years old whereas the shortest could be several months.

A Natural Experience: A city composed of tree homes is a forest. You could cover an entire hillside with these homes and never be able to tell until night, when dim streams of light would illuminate the leaves.

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LIVING EXAMPLES OF ARBOR-MODELLING LIVING ROOT BRIDGES, CHERRAPUNJI, INDIA o The living bridges of Cherrapunji, India are made from the roots of the Ficus elastica tree. Because they are alive and still growing, the bridges actually gain strength over time. o Now, whenever and wherever the need arises, they simply grow their bridges.

FIGURE 44: LIVING ROOT BRIDGES OF MEGHALAYA, INDIA

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NURSERIES OF LAHORE AND PATTOKI Very amusingly, I found out all of the grafting methods I had previously researched are and have been practiced here locally for a very long time. After the interview with the nursery owner, I realized that they were aware of all the proper terms like grafting, pleaching, bonsai etc. and also were aware of the quality and significance of this type of plant growth.

FIGURE 45: PHYSICAL EXAMPLES OF ARBOR SCULPTURE IN LAHORE AND PATTOKI

DESIGN CODES OF THE NEW ARCHITECTURE    

Tessellation for Structural Strength (Cross Rib Structure) Physical Parasitic properties (Urban IMplants) Control of Growth (Guiding Scaffolds) Environment Responsive (Passive Solar Design Techniques)

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BIBLIOGRAPHY Conners, L., & Conners, N. (Directors). (2007). The 11th hour [Motion Picture].

Ahmad, A., & Jha, M. K. (2008). STATUS OF PETROLEUM SECTOR IN PAKISTAN - A REVIEW. Bangkok, Thailand: School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology.

Brown, J., & Burns, G. (Directors). (2006). Radiant City [Motion Picture].

Cohen, R., Heringer, A., Hirsch , L., Kennedy , B., Palumbo , R., & Paragas , D. (Directors). (2008). Next World: Future Life On Earth [Motion Picture].

Gelpke, B., McCormack, R., & Caduff, R. (Directors). (2006). A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash [Motion Picture].

Greene, G. (Director). (2004). The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream [Motion Picture].

Hopkins, R. (2005). KINSALE 2021: An Energy Descent Action Plan - Version.1. Kinsale, Ireland: Kinsale Further Education College.

Link, T. (June 2008). Arborsculpture: An Emerging Art Form and Solutions to our Environment. Davis, California: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Davis.

Minkoff, R. (Director). (2010). Aftermath: A World Without Oil [Motion Picture].

Moore, F. (1992). Environmental Control Systems: Heating, Cooling, Lighting.

Columbus, OH : Mcgraw-Hill College .

Moore, K. (2004, July). Oil Crash. Retrieved March 2011, from www.oilcrash.com: http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/survivng.htm Morgan, F. (Director). (2006). The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil [Motion Picture].

Paine, C. (Director). (2006). Who Killed The Electric Car: A Lack of Consumer Confidence of Conspiracy? [Motion Picture].

Scarrow, A. (2007). Last Light. Norwich, UK: Orion Books.

Scarrow, A. (2010). After Light. Norwich, UK: Orion Books.

Shahbaz, Y. (2009). Resolved Growth: City Centers as Urban Villages. Lahore: Department of Architecture, National College of Arts.

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Sheikh, A. M. (2010). PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK 2010. Islamabad: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan.

Simson, B. (Director). (2004). If... The Oil Runs Out [Motion Picture].

Spurr, S. (2010). After the Event: Speculative Projects in the Aftermath. In A. B. Adrian Lahoud, Post-Traumatic Urbanism: AD (pp. 50-57). September: Wiley.

WILSON, R. C. (2009). Julian Comstock: A Story of 22Nd-Century America. New York: Tom Doherty Associates, LLC. Wood, J. J. (Director). (2006). Crude impact [Motion Picture]. USA.

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An email I got some time ago that somewhat, somewhere became the cause of me performing this thesis exercise:

Story of Lady Diana: An English princess with an Egyptian boyfriend crashes in a French tunnel, driving a German car with a Dutch engine, driven by a Belgian who was drunk on Scottish whisky, followed closely by an Italian Paparazzi, on Japanese motorcycles; treated by an American doctor, using Brazilian medicines.

This was sent by email from a Canadian, using American Bill Gates’s technology, and you’re probably reading this on your computer, that uses Taiwanese chips, and a Korean monitor, assembled by Bangladeshi workers in a Singapore plant, transported by Indian truck drivers, hijacked by Indonesians, unloaded by Sicilian longshoremen, and trucked to you by Mexican illegals.

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