The world post-Trump

US Policy after Trump

Whichever way we look at it, the international agenda for the next few years will be set by President Biden in the US.

Biden is determined to reverse a lot of Trump’s policies. After all, that is what he got elected on. Bringing a bit of sanity back into US foreign policy.

The danger is keeps ‘reversing’ every four years, boring. that if US everything it becomes

Nobody can build relationship with a is uncertainty of de-

a longer-term country if there cisions made.

That is why we need to look at what Biden wants to ‘reverse’.

Paris climate agreement: This is a key agreement in terms of climate change. It is the foundation for a lot of later activities. Trump cancelled the US participation and that led to the emphasis on ‘Coal is King’.

That is of course good for the ‘rust belt’ in the US where a lot of Trump voters are. Pollution targets down the drain on the altar of ‘big industry and jobs’. However, it is just not sustainable, neither short-term nor long-term. Climate change is reality and it is NOW.

Iran nuclear agree-

ment (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action -JCPOA): this is the agreement between Iran and the rest of the world where Iran will not refine Uranium and Plutonium to bomb-grade levels. In return the sanctions on Iran will be lifted.

It was a master-stroke of Obama as it was not a US-Iran agreement, but was lifted into a UN resolution, backed by China, France, Germany, EU, Russia, UK and US.

So, Trump pulled out, invoked sanctions and Iran started refining to bomb-grade. On top of, killing of Iranian generals does not improve any peaceful talks.

Biden wants to get it back in force. But that might be difficult now. Also because EU (as a consequence of the US stance that companies trading with Iran will be sanctioned in the US) has started a move away from US dollars as the currency for oil trade. EU companies trading with Iran has not been sanctioned but subsided by EU.

How to get the genie back in the bottle?

North Korea: It started so well with trump doing something positive. It was an achievement to get talks started with Kim Jong-Un. It was a rare sight to see that agreements and tentative easing of hostilities could be achieved.

The background is a bit convoluted. North Korea has been building a nuclear capability. It is my opinion that it is a bargaining tool to get the sanc- tions go away. Sort of: ”Lift the sanctions and we will stop the nuclear build programme”. It makes perfect sense.

Kim Jong-Un has to to get the economy the population at the dictatorship. Maysomething serious can

get the sanctions lifted going. The risk is that large can turn against be not a revolution, but happen.

After a good start trump got it mixed up. The message to North Korea was changed to one of get rid of the nuclear arsenal and then we will lift the sanctions. Trust us.

That is not working. So Kim Jong-Un said: “lift the sanctions first, and then we will get rid of the nuclear arsenal. Trust us”.

Biden has to come up with a good plan on this.

China: This is even worse. The trade war with China is hurting US industry as the imports from China are essential to the functioning of US industry. US industry and consumers are the ones paying the new tariffs as the Chinese suppliers are just adding it onto their pricing.

China is now also a military stand-off in feeling the pressure. flexing its muscles in the region. Taiwan is

Biden needs China to keep the pressure on North Korea and US industry needs China as parts-supplier and food exporter.

It does not make it easier that China is now the dominant economy.

Maybe a good talk between Biden and Xi can get it back on track, but somebody has to be frank with China.

Russia and surroundings:

Russians seems to have other former Soviet retheir ‘dictators’. It might better. Democracy is breaking out! had enough of Putin as publics also revolt against get messy before it gets

Europe: Time for US to regain the trust of Europe. And that might be the hardest part of it all. A world-order where the 2nd biggest economy (EU) is deliberately hurting number 3 (US) cannot be a solution.

We wish Biden the best of luck. If he should need advice we will leave or contact details.