International - what’s on

JCPOA is coming back. We think. It is really a horrible acronym, but this is an initiative to take the temperature down a bit in Middle East (no, it is not climate change).

Let us quickly recap. JCPOA stand for ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ and was an initiative led by Obama.

The background is the Iranian pursuit of nuclear weapons. The Iranian efforts were getting closer to enriching nuclear material to weapon-grade amounts. However, these efforts were set back considerable by a ‘mysterious’ virus that infected the mainframe controlling the centrifuges.

Somehow, the centrifuges (needed for enrichment) managed to spin themselves to death. Oh Dear. And that set it back by a few years. (The virus was Styx, look it up and be amazed – we wonder which nation state could have developed such a sophisticated virus).

In comes the current Iranian President, Rouhani. All of this is back in 2013-2015. Sure enough, the Iranian economy is not going well with sanctions (because of the nuclear developments) biting. There is only one way of getting the country going: negotiate the nuclear developments.

It is correct that the driving force is Obama (USA), but the real stroke of genius is that Obama does not make it a US-Iran deal. He takes it to UN.

This is where the other players are coming on the field. The agreement is also called 5+1. Meaning Iran and five members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany – and also the EU – Yes, I can’t get the arithmetic to add up either).

UN makes it UN resolution which means this is binding on member states. This is really the highest level of international recognition possible.

… And then Donald trump happens.

Trump announces in late 2017 that it is a bad deal and it will not be ratified. 8 May 2018 Trump announces that US will withdraw from JCPOA and lumber all countries trading with Iran with sanctions.

This is spinning out of control with EU counteracting such sanctions by supporting companies.

That US unilaterally imposes sanctions is not making it all easier.

US suggests a new deal with Iran. This suggested deal is far beyond JCPOA (things like missile defences, altering Iran’s internal policies, etc etc).

More JCPOA

The temperature goes up!

Iran declares in July 2019 that it will now go beyond the JCPOA limits of enriching Uranium.

January 2020 sees the assassination of general Qassem Soleimani. This is not what is supposed to happen in international negotiations. Going around shooting people is ‘not cricket’.

So Iran is getting rather miffed and declares that it will not abide by any of the things in JCPOA.

The temperature goes up another notch!

But now Biden happens!

Iran claims in December 2020 that it could actually be fine with JCPOA if US would join and also scrap the sanctions.

Now the temperature really goes down. But it is a bit too early to celebrate.

Now we get to the present-day stuff.

Suddenly, there is an attack on the enrichment plant in Iran. It is claimed that an explosion cut off power to the facility which damaged a fair amount of the centrifuges (you cannot just switch such things off). This is a major set-back for the Iranian efforts to create a nuclear weapon as the enrichment process is sort of the first step.

Is it fatal? No, it is more a statement from somebody that Iran should perhaps go back to JCPOA or it is an attack on JCPOA itself, forcing Iran to break off talks.

First of all: it is not smart to threaten a country like this. So maybe not an encouragement. But if it is an effort to kill JCPOA?

Who can be interested in raising the temperature again? Iran is blaming Israel. Israel is stating that a return to JCPOA is an existential threat to Israel. But why would they do this?

Israel’s PM is fighting for his political life and although he was big pal of Trump, the relationship with Biden might not be so close. But there is a long way from personal animosity to international acts of war.

Let us whip out the crystal ball and the tea leaves. What can happen?

US will rejoin JCPOA in its current form. Biden will tell Israel to stop interfering but Biden will extend all kind of guarantees to Israel.

Will it be enough to salvage JCPOA? It has to be, especially if EU and the entire UN security Council is behind it.

If not, it is like ‘Houston, we have a problem’.