NSSM 122, Addendum II

l

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3/rJ

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SECRXT

IIEIIoII,ANDUM

!0R R. HENtY A.

(ISSiNGm

TIIE III{1TE I]OUSE

Subject:

NSSU 122

the attached paper is in respo!6e ro Mr. tioldridAe'6 olal lequest fo! the ansvers to four questions you asked fof ar rhe Augusr 6 sRG fteetine, based trpoo a more concise

smary of

NSSM

122"

these questions lrere:

I. l,There js Jdpan Coingl 2. What (ind of a Japan Do ite Wantz 3. How Do Ne Ger It ro Go Thele?

4, ilhat Are rhe Costs?

Ve have comented only in vely genela1 te!m6 0n economic matters since we understand thac rhe CInP is preparing a nore detatled ?aper on thc econofric aspects in question.

I'tlt.-?st-',* L" Eliotl Jr"

Theodore

lxeeutive Secletary

Nssrl 122 Addendun

II

sIicr!iT

Nssr.r 122

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ArDnNDIrrr TT

Jalan is the second largest an.l nost dyuamic

industrial po\rcr in thc frcc (orld. Its ccoiomic capacj.ty ts groL,ing rapidly! if pxesert trcnds continu., Jalan's G\_r could surlass that oI thc So\.iet union in the early 1980's. lts rilitary lotential, if frccd from currcnt inhibitions, could be fornidaLrl.. To datc. Japan has concetrtlatcd on econoric grovth to thc virtual cxcltrsior oI all othcr intcrcsts. the expl.osj.ve grolrth oI Japanis economic interests aorldvida !i11 incrcasj.trgly I.rce Japao into er.ater

vith other nations in othei atcas. It is in ou! vital iDtef,est that any nc\r iole for a nati.on of snch pot.rti.I bc dovelop.d vitirin tho trao.rorL of a cooDerative rathe, ttan an adversary or even co'p Lir:\- ! r:, . r.involvcmctrt

Irhere

is J4e!

tlqlqA1

Japar's domrniant national lollcy, loth as a natter of natioLlal survivat ard Ior thc purposc of ihDroving its o\n liviDg staLldards, is to continlrc its high rate of econo j.c gro'th" Japan is aliost utriqle1I d.!.nd.nt upon lor.ign sourcris oI indlstrial xax Natclla1s, fuels and food-stuffst a major coLr.c!,r, thercfor., is

to eniLrre cqtrtinLr.d acccss to th.se sourccs and to the extdlt ).arkets riith ghich to tay for ti1em.

Japan's iftpact on the ecoionics of its Njor tradina partn.rs is .norijous .trd gro.ring. Jalan is

tlle prin.jt.l tradina lartncr of vilttral1y evcry counLry in Asia. This xEjor econo ic imprct has not) hoHcvc!, b.en translated into lolitical infllcrcc.

The J.larcsa havc sought Lo avo1d closc id!\)tifj.catioi eith conir.versial regires clsciiher. iD .\sia, ald oth.lr Asians lind tL. iJr.st)..t oI Jeranesc l)olitical inf llrcn.c dist.'st.tr1. a1re.1d),

!{tll-

-2-

Ior th. Fcs.rtr Jap.r has tro najor: lo1itica1 or nilitaxy goals, b.yond tho d.sirc to obtain lno:casiDg recognition as a gleat porier an.l inl1tence eomcnslr.te lritb that status. It is a r.tter oI national lolicy ttrat these goals be achieved qithout acquiring traditioDal military po er or nucleaf, \reaPonsc

not no\r vier? its seclrity as lelng a threatened tn nrilitary sens., palt1y due to confidence in thc relationship lith thc Urited states and laf,Ely to tts orn aptreciation o, che j.ntentions of its neielbols, this could chango, oI course, as China's nuclear capability gr.orrs r Japan does

ID es.encc, thc Japanesc xegard the threat to

a! coming from instalilityi in ther-., relarionshi! vith thc Utrited States, in thc inter8tional monetar, system o! !n ai:cas \rh.r. Japan has an tntoxtant ecoLlooic stata. At prescnt, Jop.n n.cts such thicats thlorgh diplomecy, eonsultation and a 1os posture, DoE nrilitary them

ror the last t\ictrty years, Japan's lo1itica1 lcadershif has come iror that elenent of the political spectrlrm, sullolted b)' thc lusiness co\Eunity, vLrichj

aAainst str:ong dom.stic olpositioi has blen dedicated to malntaiLling a close.nd coopera!ive rol.tio.shi! lrith the Uilted Stat.s" that has bccn Lased oD a h4ld-Lre.dcd asscssDent as to vhe!. Jalan.sc intelcsts 1i.. That is, the united Stetcs in thc early 1950s ras th. onl.y n-rjon o, 1.',',', ,r.!. , . o _,r r, l) tor t .Loao. . coop.fatjon ncc.rssaiy to !.sto):. its irdnstri4l strLlcturc and the only ?ovcr capaLlc of olr.ling sccurity to a deleated .rd urarNed natioD. That baslc dccision has bacn rcconfirmcd by successiv. Japancs. govcrm.nts an.1 fohs thc basis for J.p3o s lorciSn policy lodar,

sliotl:T

-3-

thc lasic policy line ts not innNtabl., ho''eve!' .l-L-aL no.r h,. m io- :r.. r.' s o..'c.''.'c ol irs o1 ' anJ c..o 10 1o,.r-.; b- t.,r.a Io" 6.'.nr'd. JJp' ''s v:L' by dcveloptnetrts intar.sts arc nod also alfected jnrrrrlLiol-l nonLc_rv '1nJ r.<D.Ltir I cl-j1. a''l rl,' pJnch ol tl P' ""id"r I s Tn' ^i'.' t\ro "."',".r. i."r... on these t\ro iss!.s, coming \tithout "--"**.i,t.

D!io- .rn(. r' r, ioa v'll J.'p- , h-'^ '.riou..ly L.c-r'"a. I ir," "o.iti-" r.olr o l\ o' rii'' il n:sl'_ ''r' Lul rh' Ic,j; . ir r_. ,f vhi:' .r.u I :ts loljtic_l tiI( on nalngi"g a ifosi and cooperativc relatronshi! vith the Unitcil States. Iel, an.lysts no\t fecl that Sato can lenaitr in office mtrch beyoid the Diet ratilication ot thc oliinarT. agr.. .Dt. \'Jhethct his successor atrd thc lo1itica1 alisr$clt suprorting hnn .om's into ltith the US o! to olliae rlcpared to cooP.fatc fltlther bo [o": .,;r' l''c r'_i':r'\'i-r ''P''J ' i', r r, or t or '.c Lau tc ll ^ O. j ': '' . Itc'11v, th" 'l'j ' i.-.. l,^,1 .,.'c.o,otri. r-'o1,. ',.1.. lrrr "ris"li6'"'J by nconCom VI:LI on Scpt.frlcr 9-1.0.

BeIoie ans ctj-Lrg this qlLestioLt' ve should dacide ahat Lin.1 of an Asia \roull be ir the US intercst. Assrming that US interests tou1.l be served bv an Asia frce of teDsiols that DiSht lcad to aar ot I b' L'c i' l domjnalio., b7 ' !: "oul '"

s-r! d by. j,c-:,,1,t

""',r,i,.''^'

on

LU'\ 'hc

a'co'"e

balanc., us intcrests are servcd bv a i,'' cooo r.Ll\!. c.;3'-'.d Iri 'lllr."'Lj^'r'prrrlh u 1o1 i!'

Al i" rLlJ" r!i''-. b. .uLi,"r'o n1-. in rr' .;." rio,.r .r'f ion.t. p,.'o"' '' jj.l o; tr ''.- " l' it - ., - tr ''. vitncsscd lcfo!..

On

1,. \rrnl r l.lJr

ConlriLaies

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to thc .l.v.lo!!ent r...'Jrv. o J.o''.rtr:.s.

nrLrc! nrorc

i,.I r,c (f "

stcR!:T

aild

ror thc.rca nilihary fcars of

-

Does

-

Adhar.s

(o I'il .r. lo i r.:orr in through thc acquisition of a najor ca!.L,i.ljty \nrich 1,o!1d aloLrs. th. its n.isl,LoE, par:ticula!1y China.

to the belief that thc acquisition

of Nclea! teapods ould not

national sccLrrity.

enhance JaPan's

- fii11 continne to cooperate eich thc US on ecorlonric and nonetary lrob1cns, PerhaPs to tl)c exient th.t it ri1l less.n its

derendencc atr.1 iinpact on thc American Farket'

-

to

sech Steat !oNe! status thlou8h non-military re. sr but coLltj.nues to provi.lc the t,ases .nd facjlities .ss.ntia1 to our ?aci.f i.c secuity Posture.

Conti.Dtes

C th re: Ou levclage is linited, 1-lke n3ry other nations, Japan dcsircs both to larticilate fu1ly in thc intcrMtional srstenr .nd at the sarne tjn* dreams oI genuine indePendence.

It is i. o ! intcrcst to support those forces JaPao uhich .dvo.ate fu1I-sca1e and cxpanding lalticitation in the systefr. Thc alt.rnativcs are tor€ 1iLo1y to be autho!itariin aLld certai!1y far less predictable.

The fo11olzins specific measures .r€ srS8cstcd: - Nc should malie it appar.nt that tre place as Io..

Do

I LcL I

To

high a value or contitued coo!.lativc relations as do thc Japa.ese. This .an be done throuAh the closest colsu iaEion or naLtels vitally aflcctjng Jnpatrese iLlteresls - Chin., cspc.iallr, and iionetary Policy"

-

it clear that ri€ do not intetd

we should m.lte

to dis.rininate .A.inst Japan econoti.ally but thc co!!'crs. oI this is that JaP.r .ordt,ct

it6 cconoric aIf.trs ln

a nann.r thet cstabljlihes an eqnitablc'1.1.n.c in our

:" / i .'J.,.

ri .n

l,i-

I,i,l' lalanc.: oI lurd.n strartng \ricl, rcaarrd to othr:r n.'.i o,,s,

- .c sh.!tldjn(orti,rtr. to itrjnr.in lrcscn(. ilorrh.is,! Asia an.l ..Dsu1[ m.!c L]l1t ui'ch the slil!ar'l'

a

nrjlitrry

on \. ) ol d.r torl 5 'r. r, qu:' cn J rciti[/

Jrp.nc. c

asscssr.nEs. \ic should contin!. to provi.lc the nu.lear umlre11a. l.le s'nou1d sLrpporL

J.p.n.s. initjntj.ves to

erd

the 4cquisitlon of pclmanent n.mbershi! on the Sccurity Cou.ci1.

$e sho!1d continu. oLrr cooperation in spacc rlevcloDncnt, assuring that Japad not fecl comp.lled to acqui!e a coflpletely iDdcpendent should continle to share t.chnology lrith Jalan oi a coD rcrcial basis,

We

We

nust acknor,l.ngc that it tal.cs a long ttme

for th. Jarancse to digcst, appteciate and, hoper!11y, sntport oajor !olicy dcl)arturcs on th. part oI the US colernm"rt. l.,e should be tolerant of this tino factor.

lle should conrj.Due to pursuo our najor econonic objcctivesr recoiniziDg tlrat ovcr-

lLrilt-ir politicel as tiell.

- ,educed cooperation in thc security fic1d, less coo!.ratioD in tle UN, etc.

Ua Ehould make it c1ea, that the Adnrinistratio'1 iotends actively to sulpclt latification of beararee has nary as ccorlonic .osts

thc Ol.iLr.ria ReversiorL Trlatv.

l.lhat aro tho Costs?

The cosEs

of assuring thit

basically involvc:

Japan

renrjn coopetativc

llaintcn.nce of thc nucl..ar um,Ue11a and thc credibjl.iry oI th. us dct.ifrcDt. the provisjon of the Duclcar uNLrcll.a is not a cost dire.tly.h.i3..n1e to th. dcf.ns. oI Jairan as \r. Ir!u1d undorlLrcdly !r:.jntaitr it fo, olr o,n d.io1s! jn .ny casc" 1hc for..s dcplot.d in and arofrd J.!ar ar. t\.r(: priri.rily Ior 1he lurpos(: oa r1.,ti,1: o.,r o';ir.r co::1,i.i:tf:,tl:s in.,.ia, Dci Ior tb. a.! ... of