- it:lo .,; ' 4- 5i{rte
ol
PAi€
ro.
lNt \ \\€,
ri .r1:L L2rl2!i
I' ll Fn Ar!:lilasSY T0(Y0
T. sscsIAlE,As:D.
FX'LUsIVF fOR
F INN
oePT 0!ssEMt(aTa SUBJ
I
NSSN
''1
A,a
JAEA!
f!aH 03,-irEo FDr .r a{cE io c.r'.rir !N LAi.si vE:slor:; :,JirS.UEE:IN:,ALi.s:i! y a - , . ! . - - a 1 \ ., ) i : < s is r I 'r a iHIN: INiC "ALTEiNA rri 1; 13,sr cir;E;ll'raE tr' rRir.:crAL aN, R.3i el.rria, r . : \ e r A\\LYSIi : a i i t ;OPJAi PiII I ClL AlLY i ? i'i-- r !:q 6:':aa-L ar, rr' ^ sri!ATrc! Li(a 0<l\ i! IHi "1i11 iir!si oF PqDar sii( rIh. ion n.l1,' 'I E BELra'r- !i 1r rI.r Fiasi ' ii \Dr la . "a il::I..ra! aNvII0!|!-!r .: o. a!2!Aais IN IEIS R.c1.. ir^r. .r\'r!ieJ.rix iE:v JAFr\ ,o cA!cLr!11:' T! D: A! FRr!.ra"i:.0 cALC,rL rsD Ta Di-! DciN,ipileuv Ba 0!i cRIEN!4. ri i Apo s..!.-::.r."rc a!!srr.r. r i!\. r"r!, :NCiri'riiLLY, ia!Ln ir!l l!!:.tr A
P
A
:1
A
n
lr' -
N'T 6! HIsNi o pr!sPariIY f,i
V:RY
lt-iiniNan
S
n
rc, iAT Er)aari\a: lf pi:si ^r 1r
Nor
P
Io
ic3
^i
LY
BE PiPRCDUaEiT
r
i;,or,ro
rL
rr::L r
wliliCUT
i:r!
a srr:I-tr' :-:r rc r.s. iir'-r?E T:::i'
ri ' i.5Fr !i I ,..{. rLr ::riLJr
ci
iHa
E.
r
Er:aui'.'a saar.:l
i
D eP.rr/.;t ei
P^GE
t of State
i'
i.
\' i j 'r
.li.
.? la(fA .2421 l2l1?S7
USa, AND
la'
2. Ec0\.i]
c
CALL
lTrii|iIO\:a
.ONi:I I Oi JAFIN P:LICY,
I 1r
rb: l, )li
r !\ (n
or " i L I r : a y - F r r 3 r d oitE!rArtlia, plpEc sEFMs lr Eco'o la I:sJ.r, n.ES \.T rclrI!\ lr'IIiEs Ta POINr OF eL|rlrri.S: LAC( or RECr?ila:Iy IN cUi ii^11!c ?ELNTla'3r1,, PAPEe sEEHs r0 !3a TO 0!!R5r11E,::REa ai suD?ari N: N1/' O"2TAlNED FCOts JAPAI], ?OT' ]N I\1EN\TTIO\I^L - i". ,-r' -\ -. ?EiH^ps As coNcoMria!r
1
,r-i_,). , r:.r.e ..LD r)o r-_- I\aL-'!. L . ( iir:.rr- rro ro!R, o\:, '' TBIS
DAC.XCLJiEC Tc L1BERIA FoR Al I Fi.URa lF s5s7 rlLt.loN cALaULATINc .0J ilr:-i!11 'IEEEEIS ra.73 PERcEll 0; TATIcNAL r ra!!;.' ' I"i?lvl'r6 co.j rErFrlllNaa l{ IO?' CNi]FEiATINS EXTEPNAL ASS]SiA\CE N\D aE ct.! i a I o i I I Y . a .r . c r i v E , "-"I.! rE r'r rco.rorrc i:tro srooro"iA]1i!6 IIS \AI I ]\ AL SNOULD FURSUE Cts']JI5 FIELN. JE TPILY CTi"ILITEO THIS C!ATFULLY I\TERA91S IN 1" EFFgCT;iS EY CrSl JUO6ET^ NEa:rSiRY ara Ci!E FTESS.TRES rS ]!N T']AI D; !E II IN NI\D COU?S: BASIS, TI.]OIJCH
IC CR'AiIII i]: USiJ .:r\'"r! o 'ari., i -r "l'{llr, ! ' ro".rc_ < 1 ' I ' . 0 I{',.\Srjv L I I rc rJT J\iLIfIia). IN Itls CIN!aarlnfr, --r_ r"- -o J6o1\ ! T;!-. c ,-o_\. ,. Il - oro6a rPrcE ia, ALr Il, Pcn sE cRaAriR rtsAir 3.Brr 4: -:r! 4?t o eir- _ .., c:_ !L !- -:1. ooI r, r.' r)r
PRESSURE IS APT Dr cc:. r7_-
_
NOI{ STUDYI!G RELATTVE ECNNOiI: V!L^.NABILITIES"
su6..sis.ossIiiLriY 0- uslNs !.Llo l;.s., PASa AEE.1:E I. CIVE ALT a)I TaIS, iN IL]iII, II,LI.5,. Lr\rAcaEPrAtLa DI1A6E Ir Jri 0{\ oi iir roLD LrAsr_o!:ii:o!AeL:. s:ans T0 u: TJArz rNiE(:sis, ?!:aH Is ^r aDv:a.iirA! a r c r ! I \r a . I r u r r 0 \ , !E . . RAri.i i!A\ cLrssicAt_ . i. I co. r0 ,..;. rA1 PAP.R rEPEA',l.D!Y OKlNrfA R:va"'sIol
A
q
A
SECEET
ll
NOT
rO
BE kTPRODUCEO
WtiHOUt iHE AUIIORtZATtON Or rnr
'XeCUatre
SrCqrr,{1.'
'",t'
DePdr; ,e
l
t
of State
r?6?t t?1t2t1 BEsT RE!ERsloN TEFr-s FOR PU9L!C FnaIr:or
oBTrl\Ai r', !i;r:N LIrirs lf:0sst 5Y \r;E,
soll rt
I:,'AIESE
',EIPI:_ utrrnur ioucrt'rc !r. cEiAra <: tlvi3ir:4s 1r 0l INrarr!rii r(I t ra1. oirece ro cLp .vERrLL eoslij^r if, .rAp:! rrlraLUDI'ii3 _t 'l . .', Tir! I( \11 o. I
:iE c0NvI!ait LO,i! LjS, a!r i;ai!5E 'rq ri0! q c!rFa iAr.ola \41-irrii.!ar\l pArji 2' r;ii JNtci rNE. coiNecrror, TE.BALLlrLeE Na -rEvaPsIoIr "cni:,laiLlTY 0l 0LrR ifr:sqNcE Ir Er51 .pir.N.. As!A hOLTLo 5E !A,NTAINED (IT]Ti,] !JESiIs!..) ,a
*AN',r JAoA!EqE TO
;-_ ' 'J lrs c' rror._:: .lr rrJ' 'cj'i
I
rlir i LP!\r -lEFlrraD A: IH:S: L]TIT'/ :1 IIOJ.] FEOUESI F']R COIJBAT JSE. i' ]NI!G AETJ\C TAaTTLY ESTAi'-r.iit, !r.!LD qa I\iE! As 'O'.AaI0' REVTS!ON O. saarirrY rnaAir, 1..ui.-i\: rLr!L_1ii€s! DIELcsrra' ALL CONSIDE;ATI;i:S TNAI !A!: i.'ii T'I:J] SEV'iAL Y'Ai5.AETT ,,rap;sr,r; u3 A\D GoJ INca.,rsi'.r, ro FAv.r "^!rliA'rc .xr.!si0N" oF rR€ATy AS xaA{S OF i',i.1Dr.0 19t?.SrrLa DETAiE Ar HOfiELAID
iEVZIS]'N::'IIL^' L ' ' o - .. -- 1 .. r i,, 1" r,... corD r r r!s... NEqsI I ar:-o R.!ElsroN s\...sLrcr s \i I s: AalcrY L-.--'---: ,L--;" , i.-!r.,i\ -. -oi...i:.;-roirlD BE rlisr sarlsfAclooY 14 iNi JAei\aa:. !E TELIEv!-r!Ar ir: PasIr I3'r aE TER!:!{L ^ArE. GOJ SiOULO rA!! 6rJ r. arri.K, 3rr s!cF sAv re73,,i!i-D.xi.sE rri orre:rvo.a rr JIaT Nrr !lv! nLr4LIil rriA.( r.uLD TisR cciiiarrvE ^LL-DUT aIiFTsi c!J .:.('sfAN DEFtNiri0'r us rr!IrAiY coNFRoNTAit0N EOUAL FOR'E
FDI
"
B
11
E
L
A
It
-
L
!
E
L
rris Arcuisir
/r0JLD BE
NOT TO BE REPNODUCEO
RaJsCi:n
luI
Accq?rED 3t
WITI'UT iAE AUTI]CA]ZAi ON OF THE EXECUI Vi SECqEIItiI
Deparinreni of state
l
sEcREr
?lci or I0(r0 seazt ^!IroN !q
r0 9Ec6IAtE rrsfqc
qR
sEcR9JSECJIoN2
",..
q
e27
a2 ot
30
Eri_AHir?Da!st To(Yo
.,0
TEr"EGmAiui
.,, a,9,
qxcLrr!rvq F0R OEPT DISSEl!]
t0nIiY
5645
0F 2 I0KYoL e32l
o
FrNN
NlIE IS
APPROPRIAT!
(DI EIlF']ASIiES JI NOI PROPI]ESYIiG OIS^SiER _o AS FrLr_-r'e lNLvrr.sar 'IlAASSY..q.-" o: !:r--ar o: !r^o\,."T0 haE l\j TN "N.TL!LNNOTLEV:I. PLqS ALPNN' REVERSION FORMULAI !IILE
NDISASIEiI IOLILD INDE'D BE SO"R DEJCRIPTION OF SOIlE CONCEIVA'L€ RESULIS, "OISAS]qRN IS AY NO !EINS BOST PROAABL!
RESULT' !IAi {OULO EE IIGtsLY PRO'ADLE ]S S!GNITICANT SHORIENING OF LIiE EXPEC'^NCY OF SEC9RTiY Ti€ATY ANO BAS'S STRUCTU'IE/ LESS'!IIC OF O!R NSIL]TY TO COUNT ON.JAPAN FOR COOPENIIIOI
I\.cs_-;trr\r-
is
co, .'TI!. c\Dr!.oo:r I\-F\srrtcr_to. N]NQEPENDiNCEN
O' J4PANIS EFFORI ASSEAl
FROIl UISt
PoLIIIcAL, Fc0x0nlc, aND 0IiL0HArlc p0sIrI0N9, rNrr scRr IIAI ACCEPTANCE O' OLJITE CAL'ULAdl.E OAHAGE. €IBASSY R'COENIZES ^ND OF SUCCE!iED FONI LA O!LD RA!S€ COiT9 AX) STPE]CH OUT iEACTION TIIlES !NVO]-VED IN NILITARY R'SPONSES TO CERI,AIN c0rrilNcaNaiis. r0!€v!i, THls DTfAGE ls No LEss iELArtve AND .!O LESS !ALCLJLASLE IIAN THE POLIi]CA!, ECON'11I" AND DIFLCTJATIC D4tIAGE' IND IF TIE II3 KIND! OF DAIACq !€FE CALqULATED ANO CONPAR'D, PARTIClJI.AFLY IF TB: AI]OUNT OF NILITARY DAIAC! I]'RE O'FSET IAS 1I SNO!LO BEJ 3Y FACIOR R:PR:SENIING 1I' ^ P^-03^aiLjIy oi Tili RELE,i,aNT nIIITaRy aoNirN6ENaIEs, rr sEErs ro _rqr.j r.r- lr..s oc lor ac.:p-r'.' r _..-. ,_-,-t 6-,. , NOI]O
SE TE?RODUCID IV
'iHCUI
,,. ^+*",,,^."*
OF Tl E ExEcUI
rt Stair:T..')
D ePa I t x1c,t
i of S tatc
ii s.cFgI
A?321 02 OF A2 136\a1Z T0 5E tiucB cntafER Tqrl Frs[! 0i rccEFrINr. rro rE) niGASD:ro raD0IrIcnaL JAn, riEtt cftixtTrENls''I IPAGEs 29"3a1, Er!,rssY REc03rlZES TNrT, L.EsrIlE rF,rT rE SAID A30!E i30U',i RiVEtl:lON r\0r eEIrG A 6L-rI0 FR0 0UO, G0J E^6ERNESS FOn Nr):0h-srlc AGEE:lliNi r.N nccEPrAsL! PEVETTS:0N F0F!rLrLr rOULO PR0vtoE Exca!.LaNi F3ycrcLoclcrt. cLI rAiE rN rlHtcn T0 oEl^lir Jif irisi Acarl.!!:_iraE M0rr. oTrEnr,st uNP,,L^Tr:Ls
FAGI
02
T0KY0
co|ir!,!, !f.]ltE0r l1 fll0NT a: ARcLraD TnAT c0iiPLEnE LAcK 0F A!, ui0DITl0NrL, cOrrilln!lNI9' /TCULD S!a11 SUIP!CiClJs lo
-r.\rnrii:ia 0rEr Arrq pLl?LIc, AN0 Trirrs Ir.rPaI cfsDitlLlry cF Nlxiri.5,1I! acir!a ENr. ErrAS9r AcconoiNa!Y 9:Ea N0 Hlin Ar.l0 s0fri A0vANia.E rN p!sr lrG G0r HlnD F08 rrR!l ilvE lr.fl:i rTEn 9, axPArrsl0N 0Fr Eq0fifIq Al0, Is 0NE l]rIor c0J AND prlsLIC EXFFC] IO SEE N'NTICNED Iil NIXON"SATO COPfrUt]IOU!, AXO IF 'iII.LCAN BF IiOi(ED II\ !IItsOUT CONNOTIIIO! OF Uq PHgSSUii, :1 NO I]ILL CR:NI NARiI IO R;IL PROSPECJS FOR AIO €XFAN'ION. '1 OO ON Tts' OTN:N IiNOJ ]iEIIS 6? 7 ANO 3' IE JAPANESE L'IERE FOOLISH _rNEn ENotrar r0 ,iccErt In :oarjiuNIo,Ji, roLlLD STILL FURr!ER iEDUaE PRJSPECTS OF GEIl]NC AIiY SUBSTNNTIVE !OVENENT IN THOS€ APEAS. OTIi FII]AL SPEClF]C FOINI
ASSUIEO POSSIAILITY
OF
ri.:Fs t:-iE'. llaLIC.rro\ ri!T cq.r'.F ror!: u'_o: B:.c: 'OIICERNS IS 3Y NO t]EANS SOLTOLY IN FAIOi OF JOINT I]S' ItN S'NSE CF Ltr-I\c :q Ls: rr.LIa Brrar '. ca'TINt 1,t+ ,o r,!oi JoI\r Lc: GOJ
RENAITIS AII CB.IEC
T
]
VE.
SECRE]
NOI IC gI REiRCDUCEO WIT']O,]I THF
^LITHORLZAI
ON OF iN3
EXECL]T
V'
SECR:IAiY