Expert predicts tough election fight for Tories

SOUTH Gloucestershire Council's ruling Conservatives face a serious fight to stay in power in this year's local elections, a polling expert predicts.

Independent statistician Nigel Marriott, who is credited with making the most accurate forecast for the last General Election, says the district bucked the national trend in the last local authority elections four years ago - but may not this time.

In 2019 the Tories retained overall control in South Gloucestershire, in contrast to nearby North Somerset and Bath & North East Somerset, where the party lost power to an independent-led coalition and the Liberal Democrats respectively, with the unpopular government of Theresa May blamed.

Mr Marriott, of Bath, has crunched the numbers on how residents in each of the four unitary authority areas in the region have voted at local, general and EU elections since

2009.

He says there are some striking similarities between South Gloucestershire and North Somerset in particular, as well as crucial differences.

Mr Marriott says the outcome this year depends on whether South Gloucestershire is once again apparently immune from national trends, as happened in 2019, or if that result was a one-off.

He said: “South Glos and North Somerset are similar politically, with Tories dominant and having grown their vote share notably since 2009.

“The vote shares are practically identical for South Glos and North Somerset.

“One difference is that North Somerset has been more open to independents, so the advance of independents in 2019 at Tory expense was not completely unexpected.

“South Glos has no history of independents or even minor parties, other than in EU elections.