SEÑAL NEWS | RESEARCH # WEEK 22 - 2020

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COVID-19 IMPACT ON ENTERTAINMENT BUSINESS

#WEEK 22 ∙ MAY 2020

COVID-19 IMPACT ON ENTERTAINMENT BUSINESS #WEEK 22 ∙ MAY 2020

GLOBAL REVENUE LOST (USD BILLIONS)

2023

-17.9

-24.4

-21.5

$

-49.9

Source: Ampere Analysis

MEDIA SERVICES PERFORMANCE

LEVEL OF IMPACT ON EACH INDUSTRY

Lost growth expressed as % of current value of sector over five year forecast period

-4% -5% -6% -11%

REVENUE IMPACT

=

TV CONTENT

1%

TRANSACTION VIDEO

0%

SERVICE SEGMENT

12%

SUBSCRIPTION OTT

NEUTRAL

WHAT TO EXPECT

6m

Demand for children, family and news content grows

6m

Reduction in live event content and sports

1y

Catalogue finds favour as viewing increases

1y

Adding content makes sense

1y

Uncertainty over long-term TV advertising budgets

2y

‘Cord-shaving’ increases

2y

Bundling and discounts to take hold

2y

Broadband services get faster

2y

Increased consumption at home/ increased uptake of OTT services

6m

SVOD subscriptions will grow

6m

AVOD services can capitalize on increased viewership

6m

Cinemas shutting down as people go into lockdown

1y

Distributors delay/move to digital for film releases

1y

Pent up demand for cinema may lead to strong re-opening

1y

PUBLIC TV

=

PAY TV FREE TV ONLINE ADVERTISING

NEUTRAL

TV ADVERTISING

PAY TV

NEGATIVE

PHYSICAL VIDEO

Source: Ampere Analysis

4

VERY POSITIVE

OTT VIDEO

Pay TV, which has suffered % from the loss of sports coverage this season, will also lose significant value in what was already a challenging market structurally.

VERY NEGATIVE

CINEMA

*Duration up to the time mentioned. This is an estimate based on whether the impact is purely driven by quarantines or lockdowns, or will continue longer due to post pandemic recession, or simply accelerating an ongoing trend.

Source: Omdia

SVOD GLOBAL SUSCRIPTIONS Millions

NORTH AMERICA

300 250

EUROPE

200 150

APAC

100

LATIN AMERICA

50 2019

Source: Rethink Research

EXPECTED DURATION*

In-home TV viewing increases

THEATRICAL

-20%

2018

COVID-19 will cost the global entertainment industry $160 billion dollars over next five years.

-46

-43

-16.5

-2.9

-11.1 -38.8

160BN

2024

-19.9

2022

-3.4

2021 -3.0

2020

Entertainment & Advertising

-20.9

Advertising

-3

Entertainment

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

12% The big winner will be streaming.

Ampere’s latest forecasts suggest streaming will gain 12% of additional growth in revenue terms over the five-year forecast period.