Collier and Lee Market Trends December 2023

Collier and Lee County, FL Market Trends COLLIER AND LEE COUNTY FLORIDA MARKET DATA SOURCED FROM LOCAL MARKET MLS STATISTICS. EFFECTIVE DATE DECEMBER 2023

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Collier County

Collier County

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Collier County Rolling sales and Median price trends.

Here are some charts that show the changes in real estate prices over time, starting from January 2020 when the Covid pandemic began. The top chart shows the median price using a 3 month rolling average, while the bottom chart displays the month-over-month price changes. On the far right of the green line, you can see the overall change from January 2020 to the effective date of this report with the blue bar indicating the total change to date.

The pricing in Collier County has risen by 68% since January of 2020 and the current trend suggests that the market has not yet experienced any decline from its peak.

Collier County

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Collier County sales and pricing trends by price distribution chart here

Collier County

LTM Market Trends

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Collier County sales and pricing trends by price distribution chart here

Collier County

Sales Volume By Price Band

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Collier County Months Supply, Median Selling Price, Average Selling Price chart here

Collier County

Months Supply By Price Band

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Collier County

Collier County

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Lee County

Lee County

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Lee County Rolling sales and Median price trends.

Here are some charts that show the changes in real estate prices over time, starting from January 2020 when the Covid pandemic began. The top chart shows the median price using a 3 month rolling average, while the bottom chart displays the month-over-month price changes. On the far right of the green line, you can see the overall change from January 2020 through the effective date, with the blue bar indicating the change up to the present time.

Since January 2020, pricing in Lee County has risen by 52%.

Lee County

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Bonita Springs

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Lee County Sales and Pricing Trends Chart here

Lee County

Sales Volume By Price Band

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Collier County Months Supply, Median Selling Price, Average Selling Price chart here

Lee County

Months Supply By Price Band

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Lee County

Lee County

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As of December 1, 2023, the average monthly supply of units in Lee County increased to 5.17. The 3 month moving median price trend, has seen a YoY change of 1.46%, which increased from the past since the beginning of 2023.

However, the YoY change in median pricing is below the historical CAGR noted before the pandemic, reflecting reduced sales volumes and pricing following the hurricane. In Collier County, the average monthly supply remained near 4.3 units.

The 3 month median moving price trend decreased from 4.6% in December to 3.2% in November, the lowest since June of 2020, which was near the beginning of the median price growth trend due to the Pandemic. Pending sales in both Lee and Collier County have fallen to 2019 pre-pandemic levels due to insurance reimbursements, geopolitical uncertainty, and interest rate increases.

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Based on the Rolling sales and Median Price Trends chart, we can see the month-over-month changes in median prices and whether they are increasing or decreasing from the peak. The cumulative month-over-month median price change report for both counties shows a 2% drop in median price for each of the past three months. Over the past 12 months, the rate of monthly price appreciation has slowed. The waterfall chart measures the variance up or down from the peak median price. Cumulatively, Collier County has experienced an impressive 67% increase in median pricing since January 2020, and the most recent period reflects a 3% discount from the peak, with Lee County seeing a cumulative median price increase of 52% over the same period. Over the past 2 months, median pricing is discounted 5%.

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Micro Market Results for Lee and Collier counties show similar trends to the counties overall. The inventory supply has increased to 12,265 from 11.015 units in November, a 4 percent Month over Month increase. The active inventory has increased by 82.2% YoY, while the 12-month rolling sales have decreased by 15.3%. Despite the low inventory supply, the median asking prices are 9% higher than the Year End 2022 Median Closed Price. The Months Supply as of December 1st for Lee and Collier counties combined is 5.1 months, indicating a continued undersupply of product, generally favoring the seller. Currently, the market activity is stagnant, with the sales pace slowing and inventory beginning to accelerate.

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Based on the Micro Market Results for Lee and Collier counties combined, the median price for closed sales in the last 12 months has slightly increased to $454,000 as of December 1st, with the 3-month moving median price remaining the same at $440,000. The 12-month rolling average price has increased to $720,000 in November from $694,000 the prior year, while the 3-month moving average has come down to $664,000. Over the past year, the YoY change in 12 month rolling median and average price has contracted to 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. The limited sales activity and increasing inventory is slowly moving the market favorability to the buyer.

Lee and Collier County Key Takeaways

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Michael Timmerman, CRE •

Member of the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE)

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40 Years Experience as a Real Estate Economist and Consultant •

Market and Feasibility Studies

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Economic Impact Studies

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New Community Product and Amenity Planning

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Consumer Preference and Engagement Analysis

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Private Club Amenity analysis

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Real Estate Investment Advisory

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20 Years experience using GIS and Data Analytics tools to provide clients with a clear picture of market trends.

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Real Estate and Community Planning education from the Appraisal Institute and Urban Land Institute.

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Frequent Speaker and Lecturer on Economic and Real Estate Trends Analysis.

Contact Information Mike.Timmerman@PremierSIR.com www.ResortProperties.com C. 239.269.0769

Contact Information

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What does this data mean AND HOW DO I READ IT TO GET MEANINGFUL INSIGHTS?

Market Reports and Definitions 1. Product Design Filter – Select between Single-Family Homes and Condominiums.

2. Supply and Demand Trends – Light Blue Bars represent each month's active inventory. The dark blue bars represent the cumulative sales that have occurred over the past 12 months. The orange line represents the months supply. Months supply indicates how long it will take to sell the active inventory at the current monthly sales pace. The calculation is as follows: Active Inventory – 2949 divided by Monthly Sales Pace – 822 = Sales per month – 3.59. In other words, it will take 3.59 months to sell the 2949 active listings at a pace of 822 per month. (822*3.59 = 2,949) 3. Average Price Trends – The blue bars represent the average sales price in the current month, the blue line represents the past 12 month average sales price and the orange line represents the past 3 months average sales price. Normalizing the each months sales by looking at the past 12 and 3 months provide long term and short term pricing trends.

4. List Price to Sales Price History – The graph shows the ratio of list price to sales price, or the discount or premium paid above or below the listing price for the current period.

5. Market Summary – This list of variables summarizes the current months trends based on the data from sections one to four.

Data Analysis

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6. Filter Selection – Select variables for geography and property attributes.

7. Year over Year Change Last 12 Months (LTM) – This list shows the Current months market statistics on the top and the Year over Year change for each statistic on the bottom.

8. Properties Display – This map shows the location of each sales that occurred over the past 12 months.

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Market Summary Dashboard

Historical Median Price Trends 1. Rolling 3 Month Median Selling Price by Month and Year – The blue line shows the median 3 month rolling price for each month since January 2020. This date is the starting point of the market change since the start of the pandemic.

2. Month over Month Change in Median Selling Price by Month and Year – This waterfall chart shows the monthly change in the 3 month median sales price. Each month is color coded Green if the change is positive and Red if the change is negative. The solid blue bar on the right of the chart shows the total percentage change in median pricing from January 2020 to the current month. Understanding the trend in monthly change in median pricing provides insights into the long term direction of pricing and can help explain and measure how price changes are impacted by economic or weather events. In this case, the downward trend reflected the impact of Hurricane Ian on the residential real estate market.

3. Price Trend Highlights – This written summary provides highlights of the data in the two charts.

Data Analysis

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Median Price Trends

Sales Count By Price Distribution This set of graphs show the distribution of sales by price bucket or range. The ranges are; Less than $249K, $250K to $499K, $500K to $999K, $1M to $1.49M, $1.5M to $2.9M and Greater than $3M. The lines show the Median and Average Price of sales within each price range. This information provides insights into what price range is the most demanded in the market.

1. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Condominium) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

2. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Single Family) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

3. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (All Product Designs) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

Data Analysis

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Sales Volume By Price Band

Months Supply by Price Distribution This set of graphs show the months supply by price bucket or range. The ranges are; Less than $249K, $250K to $499K, $500K to $999K, $1M to $1.49M, $1.5M to $2.9M and Greater than $3M. The lines show the Median and Average Price of sales within each price range. This information provides insights into the supply demand ratio for each price range.

1. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Condominium) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

2. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Single Family) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

3. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (All Product Designs) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

Data Analysis

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Months Supply By Price Band

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Monthly Change by Year

The Red boxes represent the property status for each variable.

• Active Listings – Properties currently available for sale.

• Pending Listings – Properties that are under contract, but not closed.

• Closed Sales – Properties that have closed.

This set of graphs shows the Year over Year change by month for each of the three status categories. It’s insightful as it shows seasonal trends and most importantly how the market changed due to the pandemic and hurricanes.

Data Analysis

Monthly Median Price

Active Listings

• Monthly Activity Count – monthly count of properties by status.

• YTD Change by design – Percentage change in Monthly Activity Count by product design.

• Monthly Median Price – Median price by status.

Pending Listings

The Blue boxes represent the three variables for this set of graphs.

YTD Change by Design

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Closed Sales

This set of graphs shows the activity by month for each property status, Active Listings, Pending Listings, Closed Sales.

Monthly Activity Count

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Month over Month Comparison