AUKUS AND THE NEW INDO PACIFIC ALIGNMENT

Director, National Security Institute, University of Canberra

Four recent and ongoing developments are dramatically transforming Australia’s strategic environment. First, the United States’ much delayed pivot away from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific is finally materialising. Second, the United Kingdom, in search of a post-Brexit foreign policy, is resurfacing in the Indo-Pacific. It is in fact the combination of these two developments which has served as the genesis for the AUKUS security partnership. Third, Australia has stopped sitting on the fence and come down on the side of security with the US over economic prosperity with China. The fourth but no less significant development is that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the ‘Quad’), has now gained substance and real purpose.

On 16 September 2021, PM Scott Morrison alongside the Secretary of Defence Greg Moriarty and the Chief of Defence Force, LTGEN Angus Campbell, announced the AUKUS trilateral security partnership at a Parliament House, Canberra, press briefing. © Department of Defence. Photographer: Jay Cronan.

These developments highlight a new alignment in the Indo-Pacific, based on a collective pushback against an increasingly authoritarian, and assertive China; the Chinese Communist Party has miscalculated and now faces the prospect of being isolated in its own region. There is now a coalescence of values and interests across AUKUS, ANZUS and the Quad which adds strength and consistency to Australia’s security outlook.

While the early attention of AUKUS is on submarines, the focus, over time, is likely to be the pursuit of scientific, technical and industrial breakthroughs such as artificial intelligence, space, cybernetics, quantum physics, missile defence, hypersonics and autonomous systems. Aside from the military implications, Australian industry should also benefit through high levels of technology and industrial transfers, the sharing of innovations, and with contributions and access to supply and sustainment chains and critical raw materials.

AUKUS is also about geography. A 2013 report from the American Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment noted that Australia, sitting astride the Indian and Pacific Oceans, was in a ‘geographic sweet spot’. It also noted, for the first time since World War

Western Australia, with open access to the Indian Ocean, has an important role to play. It already hosts large naval forces, air force ‘bare bases’ and important radar and electro-optical facilities for space surveillance and control. In the future it can provide port and land base options for allied forces, providing protection and enabling persistence.”

II, that Australian and American areas of strategic priority overlapped.

Covering the sea lanes across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and with easy access to the chokepoints into and out of the South China Sea, Australia’s position provides strategic depth to any IndoPacific campaigns. Much of America’s military capability is forward deployed in vulnerable places like Japan, Guam and Diego Garcia. All are exposed to China’s increasing militarisation and growing sea, air, cyber and space capabilities.

© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Credit: Jacques Polome.

Referred to as the ‘aircraft carrier of the Pacific’ during World War II, Australia provided a base for training, logistics, repair, sustainment and command and control. As AUKUS unfolds expect Australia to again perform a similar role. The US is currently undertaking a global force posture review to ensure the footprint of American troops worldwide is correctly sized and supports strategy. Wait for Australia to be asked to help redress the imbalance in the Indo-Pacific.

Western Australia, with open access to the Indian Ocean, has an important role to play. It already hosts large naval forces, air force ‘bare bases’ and important radar and electro-optical facilities for space surveillance and control. In the future it can provide port and land base options for allied forces, providing protection and enabling persistence.

Don’t forget the Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. Their position in the Indian Ocean, close to the sea lanes and maritime chokepoints through the Indonesian archipelago, provide ideal launch and recovery options for reconnaissance and surveillance. Access to manouevre training areas will be important, as will range access for long-range artillery, missiles and electronic warfare capabilities.

Australia should expect requests for base access, forward deployments and substantial pre-positioning of equipment, stores and ammunition. Priority will be afforded to air and naval assets. Often neglected in Defence arrangements, attention should also be provided to the need for more army elements across Western Australia.

As the details of the AUKUS partnership emerge, we need to be alert to the cost. In the first instance, expect a much larger Defence budget.

Moreover, with all the recent talk about sovereign defence capabilities and sovereign national interests we need be alert to maintaining our independence and freedom of thought and action within the developing web of partnerships, keeping in mind that AUKUS is backed by trust, resolve and shared values.

This new security partnership will undoubtedly be of enormous benefit to Australia, and support peace and security in the Indo-Pacific more broadly.