IATA Opinion: Conrad Cliff ord IATA's Deputy Director General

After months of doom and gloom, there were encouraging signs for passenger air travel in the autumn. In Europe, the summer season brought a substantial improvement, and November saw the long-awaited reopening of the US market.

Unfortunately, as this column was going to press, news of the Omicron variant was leading to a snap-back of border restrictions, travel bans, and PCR test requirements. The danger is that governments will overreact, when scientifi c advice, not least from the WHO, is that travel bans are ineff ective. Omicron won’t be the last variant: governments need to plan for this with predictable measures that can be put into place eff ectively and have clear sunset dates for removal. We have outlined this in our Blueprint Document.

Aside from this latest worrying development another reason for the slow recovery is that governments have still not placed suffi cient emphasis on global harmonization of travel rules. Our passenger survey reveals considerable damage to customer confi dence from myriad measures governments have in place. Whether on vaccine recognition, rules on minors, testing regulations, ‘red lists’ or many other issues, there is still far too much confusion. Simple, harmonized rules are the key. IATA’s ITP will also reduce the passenger confusion. Digital solutions are essential to reduce paperwork and prevent massive delays.

Despite the delayed recovery, we know that the long-term trajectory is for continual growth. That brings the environmental challenge into sharp relief. If we are to succeed in reaching our goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, airlines, the wider value chain, and governments have to work together. We need eff ective policies to incentivize SAF, airspace improvements, and other practical environmental measures. What we do not need is to be punished by ineff ective ‘green taxes’ that merely drain money that could be focused on environmental investment. Airlines know that the cost of delivering net-zero over the next 29 years will be well into 13 fi gures. The better fi nancial shape the industry is in, the faster it will be able to invest in SAF and other carbon-reduction options. Unfortunately, the fi scal challenges facing the industry seem to be getting worse not better.

In addition to worrying tax proposals, infrastructure costs are a huge concern. We recognize that airports and ANSPs suff ered a fi nancial hit during the pandemic. But attempting to recoup these costs from airlines by hiking fees is unacceptable. ANSPs and airports have generated far in excess of their expected regulated returns during the boom years and investors must accept some short-term pain, as airlines did, for the COVID impact. But it is always too tempting for monopoly infrastructure providers to resist cashing in. So regulators need to stand fi rm. If anything, fees should be cut, to help facilitate a recovery as rapidly as possible.

Regulators should also not be too hasty to end slot alleviation measures. Whilst some domestic markets may have already bounced back by the end of this year, the rebuilding of the global network is still extremely fragile. And for long-haul markets the widely diff ering rates of recovery in diff erent regions make it very challenging to relaunch capacity.

In all, airlines still face a confl uence of serious challenges. When one considers the hurdles facing passengers, it is remarkable that traffi c has rebounded as strongly as it has. It shows the deep desire—and necessity—many people have to fl y. But we must be vigilant to guard against factors which could derail the recovery.