Meriden BoE Study

September 18, 2018

Mr. Michael S. Grove Assistant Superintendent for Technology and Operations Meriden Public Schools 22 Liberty Street Meriden, CT 06450 RE:

Meriden Public Schools Enrollment Projections and Facilities Analysis Meriden, Connecticut MMI #4792-03-0

Dear Mr. Grove: We understand the Meriden Board of Education (BOE) seeks a comprehensive enrollment analysis and projections, an analysis of elementary school facilities capacity and utilization, and the development of alternative concepts for the future of the elementary system.

Having completed numerous redistricting and reconfiguration plans, long-range plans, and comprehensive enrollment projections over the past decade, we have developed a systematic approach to the school planning process, producing high-quality solutions for our clients. While we rely on systematic processes, our approach to each school planning assignment is tailored to meet the specific concerns and issues faced by each unique school system. The following proposed scope of services represents our assessment of the work necessary to complete an enrollment analysis and projections, elementary facilities capacity and utilization analysis, and alternative planning to the satisfaction of the BOE. SCOPE OF SERVICES Task 1.0 – Phase I: Comprehensive Enrollment Projections 1.1

Project Initiation and Data Collection An initial project scoping meeting with Meriden Public Schools staff will occur at the outset of the project. The meeting will cover project tasks and frame the master schedule for all subsequent meetings, deadlines for deliverables, and associated review periods. Milone & MacBroom, Inc. (MMI) will confirm sources of necessary information; discuss methodologies, procedures, and assumptions; and review expected deliverables.

In order to conduct thorough analyses of housing, demographics, and enrollment trends, Meriden Public Schools will provide MMI with the following data: From the city's Geographic Information System (GIS) database: • Parcel data with assessment information • Street centerlines

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GIS boundaries of all existing school districts (if not available digitally, paper maps and transportation address lists) School locations

From Meriden Public Schools: • Enrollment database extract that includes State Assigned Student Identifier (SASID), student address, grade, school, race, free and reduced lunch status, and any other characteristics determined necessary for the current year and each of the past 4 years.

This data should be consistent with October 1 enrollments reported to the State Department of Education.

• Magnet school enrollment by grade for Meriden resident students for the current and each of the past 4 years • Private school enrollment by grade for Meriden resident students for current and each of the past 4 years - if available • Completed request to the Connecticut Department of Public Health (CTDPH) for birth records for the past 10 years. MMI will assist in completing this request.

• Previous enrollment projection reports • Descriptions of any recent and planned programmatic changes influencing student placement (i.e., increases in PreK seats, program introduction, etc.)

• School system operational and contractual capacities, including staffing requirements • Architectural floor plans of all elementary school facilities and any facility evaluation studies 1.2

Housing, Demographic, and Economic Analyses Understanding economic, housing, and demographic trends, characteristics, and forecasts is crucial to accurately projecting school enrollments. This information provides the background by which future changes and development within a community can be anticipated and planned for accordingly. MMI will consult with the city's Planning and Zoning, Economic Development, and Building Departments to determine recent residential growth areas and identify residential development proposals of significant scale and/or planning initiatives that may impact enrollment levels. The project team will review and analyze trends in employment, building permits, housing sales, and rental occupancy rates to understand the impact on school enrollments.

The accuracy of enrollment projections depends on a thorough understanding of local housing market conditions. MMI proposes to use a quantitative and qualitative approach to gain a solid understanding of Meriden's housing market and its impact on enrollment. First, using our GISbased Enrollment Management System, the project team will address match recent housing sales to understand neighborhood trends. Rental unit vacancy rates over time as well as other economic indicators such as unemployment will be analyzed for any correlation to birth and enrollment trends. In addition, MMI will identify dense residential rental developments based on the assessor's data. Enrollments in these dense rental areas will be analyzed for trends in migration and persistency, total numbers of students, and characteristics of students. Armed with an understanding of the local ownership and rental markets and their influences on enrollments, the projected impact of any planned or recently approved residential developments of scale can be forecasted.

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This task will be augmented by an analysis of demographic patterns and trends for the community based on the latest census data. The current status and change over the last 10 to 15 years for key demographic ďŹ gures such as population and composition and housing tenure and composition will be assessed at the census block group level. This will provide a better understanding of localized demographic trends.

This task will offer a better understanding of neighborhood demographic and housing dynamics to help inform enrollment projections, particularly at the school-by-school level.

1.3

Comprehensive Enrollment Analysis Our planners will incorporate their understanding of neighborhood demographic and housing trends into their analysis of historical enrollments. The existing student inventory will be address matched to the city base map and referenced by their student ID only in order to protect the identity of individual students. Maps will be generated to display the geographic distribution of the student population by school.

Historical Enrollment Patterns The project team will collect, analyze, and graph historical enrollment from the past decade by school in order to identify trends and patterns. In addition to understanding total enrollment trends, it is important to identify historical enrollments and characteristics by neighborhood in order to accurately project future enrollment and characteristics. This will include analysis of nonpublic and other public enrollment trends for Meriden resident students.

Birth Record Analysis MMI will work with Meriden Public Schools to request detailed birth records with addresses from the CTDPH. This request must be completed as soon as possible due to the lengthy processing time by the state.

MMI will address match the birth records for the past 10 years in Meriden. This information will form the basis for the geographic distribution of the next ďŹ ve incoming kindergarten classes. The new births will be address matched and assigned to school attendance areas. Maps will be produced to illustrate the potential enrollment impact of each birth cohort on existing school districts and redistricting options. This information will be combined with existing enrollments and estimates of migration utilizing the cohort-survival method, as well as multiple regression analyses in order to project future enrollments.

Educational Programming and Services Review Educational programming initiatives and changes can result in shifts in enrollments that must be factored into enrollment projections. The development of new programs, new construction, and even the availability of services can serve to attract students and thereby affect enrollment trends.

The project team will meet with administrators to understand and catalogue the offerings in order to identify programmatic impacts on enrollment.

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1.4

Enrollment Projections The cohort-survival method, with some modifications, will be used to develop enrollment projections. The cohort-survival method is a standard methodology for projecting populations and student enrollments and relies on observed data from the recent past in order to predict the near future. The base enrollment forecast will be developed from the analysis of the following variables: school-age population, birth records, and estimates of migration. The estimated student generation from any external growth factor including newly constructed residential development and a high turnover housing market is then added to the base school forecast.

MMI will generate district wide and school-specific enrollment projections disaggregated by grade. These projections will forecast the overall student population for a 10-year planning horizon. Projections will be prepared for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios with all assumptions clearly defined.

1.5

Meetings MMI will present its analysis and enrollment projections at one BOE meeting.

It is assumed that the schools' administration will assist the project team in verifying information and reviewing preliminary findings prior to preparation of a final report and/or presentation to the BOE. Any necessary meetings with the administration will be conducted during normal business hours and via conference call.

1.6

Final Report The project team will prepare a comprehensive final report in PowerPoint presentation format inclusive of the demographics, housing and enrollment analyses, and detailed projections. The final report will be furnished to Meriden Public Schools in an electronic format appropriate for posting to the schools' website.

Task 2.0 – Phase II: Facilities Analysis and Planning For The Future We understand the intent of Meriden Public Schools is to use the enrollment projections prepared in Phase I to explore the potential of school consolidation, construction, and/or redistricting of its elementary school system. The following scope of services is presented as an optional addition to the work described in Phase I above.

2.1

Facilities Utilization and Functional Capacity An inventory of standard instructional classrooms, special purpose/program rooms, and core facilities for each elementary school facility will be compiled from school records, floor plans, class rosters, schedules, and interviews with staff. The evaluation will establish current room usage and help to develop the functional capacity of each building under current programmatic conditions.

Current enrollment will then be compared to functional capacity to determine utilization of each building and the elementary system as a whole.

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2.2

Alternatives for the Future Based on the findings from the enrollment and facilities analyses, MMI will work with Meriden Public Schools to develop guiding criteria for the development of alternative concepts for the future of the elementary system, which may include goals for equitable class sizes and programming or reducing, maintaining, and/or expanding programs and services.

MMI will generate alternatives, such as facility consolidation/construction and redistricting.

Depending on the needs of the district, MMI may subcontract with an architectural firm to help complete this task.

Each alternative scenario will be analyzed for its performance under current and projected enrollments vis-à-vis the guiding criteria. It is anticipated that the Meriden Public Schools administration, including its transportation provider, will work closely with the project team to develop and review the alternative scenarios. This task is expected to be iterative and will be accomplished in close connection with the Meriden Public Schools' designated staff in order to provide sound recommendations to the BOE. At the request of Meriden Public Schools, the project team will include as part of alternative scenario development an assessment of the feasibility of any expansion, reconfiguration, or new construction necessary. Such assessment will include site suitability, circulation, cost, and locational considerations. This work will be performed in accordance with the terms and conditions of the original contractual agreement with final scope, fees, and schedules based on mutual agreement of the parties.

MMI will provide recommendations inclusive of appropriate maps, tables, and graphs in a format suitable for presentation to the BOE. Documents prepared under this phase will also be furnished in a format appropriate for posting on the Meriden Public Schools' website.

Finally, all digital mapping products and GIS data will be furnished to the city at the end of the study. The maps will be delivered in PDF format, and the GIS data will be in either an ESRI shapefile or geodatabase format depending upon the city's preferences.

2.3

Meetings MMI will facilitate meetings and/or workshops with school administrators, the BOE, parent and neighborhood groups, and/or other stakeholders for the purpose of presenting and discussing the enrollment projections, capacity and utilization analysis, alternative options, and recommendations. We are well aware of the importance of public input and community consensus building in a study of this nature. Two such meetings are budgeted for and included in the fee proposal.

2.4

Deliverables As part of the planning process, key findings, analyses, and alternatives will be summarized in a series of PowerPoint presentations for use in public outreach. Presentations will be inclusive of all appropriate maps, graphics, concepts, tables, and graphs for purposes of creating discussion documents. All documents under this task will be furnished in a format appropriate for posting on the schools' website.

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TIME FOR COMPLETION The overall estimated time required to perform Phase I services is approximately 3 to 4 months from notice to proceed, primarily to accommodate the birth data request process.

The overall estimated time required to perform Phase II services is approximately 2 months from notice to proceed, largely depending on the public outreach component of the work.

PROFESSIONAL FEES The work noted in Phase I will be performed for a lump sum fee of $16,800. Since the exact scope of Phase II is reliant on the findings of Phase I, we recommend budgeting $20,000 to $25,000 to perform the scope of services described in Phase II. STANDARD TERMS AND CONDITIONS This proposal is subject to our Standard Terms and Conditions, which are attached hereto and incorporated herein.

ACCEPTANCE The original and one copy of this proposal are enclosed. If it satisfactorily sets forth your understanding of the arrangement between us, please sign one copy in the space provided and return it to us for our files.

We appreciate the opportunity to be of service and look forward to a pleasant and rewarding association with you on this project.

Very truly yours,

MILONE & MACBROOM, INC.

Rebecca Augur, AICP, Associate Principal Planner Enclosures 4792-03-0-s1818-prop

The above proposal and attached Standard Terms and Conditions are understood and accepted: By____________________________________________________________________

Date____________________________

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ (Print name and title)

STANDARD TERMS AND CONDITIONS Unless specifically excluded in the Contract, these Terms and Conditions are incorporated by reference into the foregoing proposal or contract and shall be part of the Agreement under which Services are to be performed by Milone & MacBroom, Inc. (MMI) for the Client.

1.

Method of Payment: Monthly, MMI will invoice Client for all Services rendered during the previous month. Invoices will be due upon receipt. Any unpaid invoices and charges will draw late payment fees at 1½% per month commencing 30 days after date of invoice. Client shall notify MMI in writing of any disputed amount within 10 days after date of invoice; otherwise, Client shall be deemed to have waived any objection to all invoice charges and agreed to the invoice being acceptable. Payment thereafter shall first be applied to accrued interest and then to the principal unpaid amount. Lump Sum Fee Price and Fixed Price contracts will be invoiced on a percent-complete basis as determined by MMI. Unless otherwise agreed, out-of-pocket costs for mileage, special mailing, reprographics, and similar costs will be invoiced as additional direct expenses. Subconsultant fees will be invoiced at cost plus a 10 percent markup for processing. In the event that MMI retains a collection agency or attorneys to recover any monies owed by Client to MMI, then MMI shall also be entitled to recover its reasonable cost of collection and legal costs from Client, including, but not limited to, all fees and costs incurred by MMI under mediation and litigation proceedings. MMI may suspend or terminate any and all of the Services if payment of any invoiced amount not reasonably in dispute is not received by MMI within 60 days from the date of MMI's invoice. Such suspension of services is done without waiving any other claim against Client and without incurring any liability to Client for such suspension due to Client's breach of payment terms. Termination shall not relieve Client of its obligation to pay amounts incurred up to termination.

The Client's obligation to pay for the Services performed under this Agreement is in no way contingent upon Client's ability to obtain financing, zoning, approval of governmental or regulatory agencies, favorable judgment of lawsuit, or upon Client's successful completion of project. Should Services be suspended for a period of ninety (90) days, MMI shall be entitled to additional compensation to reinitiate work. Lump sum fees, if applicable, quoted in this Contract shall remain valid for a period of twelve (12) months from the date of Contract. Thereafter, they may be adjusted in accordance with MMI's current rate structure.

Hourly personnel rates may be adjusted on an annual basis.

2.

Level of Services: The Level of Service will be performed for the exclusive benefit of Client. MMI will perform the Services using that degree of skill and care ordinarily exercised under similar conditions by reputable members of MMI's profession practicing in the same or similar locality at the time of performance. No other warranty, express or implied, is made or intended, and the same are specifically disclaimed.

Client shall not be entitled to assert a claim against MMI based on any theory of professional negligence or violation of the standard of care unless and until Client has obtained the written opinion from a licensed, independent, and reputable engineering and/or environmental professional, as appropriate for the Services in question, that MMI has violated the standard of care applicable to MMI's performance of those Services under this Contract. Client shall promptly provide such independent opinion to MMI, and the parties shall endeavor in good faith to resolve the claim within 30 days.

3.

Deliverables: All hard paper copies of deliverables, including, and limited to, any and all reports, drawings, plans, and specifications prepared by MMI hereunder shall be delivered to Client upon final payment for MMI's Services. Deliverables may not be used or reused by Client, its employees, agents, or subcontractors in any extension of the project or on any other project or any other use without the prior written consent of MMI. Client agrees that all deliverables furnished to the Client not paid for in full will be returned to MMI upon demand and will not be used for design, construction, permits, or licensing. All originals of such deliverables shall remain in possession of and the property of MMI. Copies of any electronic media or disks of originals of any of MMI's deliverables, such as designs, specifications, calculations, CAD documents, etc., shall not be made available unless a specific agreement is made to the contrary as part of the Scope of Services. All the drawings, plans, specifications, and deliverables prepared by MMI are instruments of MMI's service, and MMI shall be deemed the author of them and will retain all common law, statutory, and other reserved rights, including, but not limited to, the copyrights.

MMI shall have the right to include photographic or artistic representations of the Project among MMI's promotional and professional materials. MMI shall be given reasonable access to the Project to make such representations. Client shall advise MMI of confidential or proprietary information which should be excluded from promotional materials.

4.

Limitation of MMI's Liability to Client: In recognition of the relative risks and benefits of the Project to both the Client and MMI, the Client agrees that except for circumstances caused by the willful misconduct of MMI, all claims for damages asserted against MMI by Client, including claims against MMI's directors, officers, shareholders, employees, and agents, are limited to the

total fee for services rendered or $250,000.00, whichever is less. MMI is solely responsible for its personnel only, and no others.

MMI shall not be responsible for any special, incidental, indirect, or consequential damages (including loss of profits) incurred by Client as a result of MMI's performance or nonperformance of Services. MMI shall not be liable for extra work or other consequences due to changed conditions or for costs related to failure of the construction contractor or materialmen or service provider to install work in accordance with the plans, specifications, or applicable code, or for the actions or inactions of regulatory agencies. Any claim shall be deemed waived unless made by Client in writing and received by MMI within one (1) year after completion or termination of the Services.

5.

Client Indemnification: Client shall indemnify and hold harmless MMI and its shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and agents against all losses or claims, and costs incidental thereto (including costs of defense, settlement, and reasonable attorney's fees) which any or all of them may incur, resulting from bodily injuries (or death) to any person, damage (including loss of use) to any property, or contamination of or adverse effects on the environment, arising out of or which are in any way connected with (i) the acts or omissions of Client, Client's employees, agents, and subcontractors, or (ii) Client's breach of Contract.

6.

Required Disclosures by Client: Client shall provide MMI all information which is known or readily accessible to Client which may be reasonable and/or necessary for completion of the Services by MMI or protection or safety of MMI personnel.

7.

Force Majeure: Neither party shall be responsible for damages or delays caused by Force Majeure or other events beyond the control of the other party and which could not reasonably have been anticipated or prevented. For purposes of this Contract, Force Majeure includes, but is not limited to, adverse weather conditions; floods; epidemics; war; riot; strikes; lockouts and other industrial disturbances; unknown site conditions; accidents; sabotage; fire; loss of or failure to obtain permits; unavailability of labor, materials, fuel, or services; court orders; acts of God; and acts, orders, laws, or regulations of the Government of the United States or the several states, or any foreign country, or any governmental agency. Should Force Majeure occur, the parties shall mutually agree on the terms and conditions upon which the Services may be continued.

8.

Termination: This Contract may be terminated by either party upon thirty (30) days' written notice to the other party.

Irrespective of which party terminates or the cause therefor, Client shall, within thirty (30) days of termination, compensate MMI for fees, charges for services, and costs incurred up to the time of termination, as well as those associated with termination activities. It is agreed, at any time after the total compensation payable to MMI under this Contract is met, that MMI shall have the right to suspend or terminate further performance or continuance of Services until Client and MMI have executed an extension to the contract or a new contract.

9.

Entire Contract: This Contract constitutes the entire agreement, including herein-referenced proposal(s), attachments, and schedules, etc., between the parties and supersedes any and all prior written or oral agreements, negotiations, or understandings existing between the parties. This Contract may be amended only by written instrument signed by each party.

10. Testimony: Should MMI or any MMI employee be requested by any party or compelled by law to provide nonexpert testimony or other evidence with respect to the Services, and MMI is not a party to the dispute, MMI shall be compensated by Client for MMI's preparations, document retrieval, document reproduction, and testimony at MMI's current hourly rates. MMI shall provide expert witness testimony pertaining to any Services at premium rates of 1.5 times the then current hourly rates. Client agrees to reimburse MMI for reasonable travel, lodging, and meal expenses that are incurred in conjunction with providing either expert or nonexpert testimony or other evidence.

11. Precedence and Survival: This Contract shall take precedence over any inconsistent or contradictory provisions contained in any Client-issued purchase order, requisition, notice to proceed, or like document regarding the Services. All obligations arising prior to the termination of this Contract and all provisions of this Contract allocating responsibility or liability between Client and MMI shall survive the completion of Services hereunder and the termination of this Contract.

12. Governing Law: This Contract shall be governed by, construed, and interpreted in accordance with the laws of the State of Connecticut, excluding any choice of law rules which may direct the application of the laws of any other jurisdiction.

13. Claims, Disputes/Mediation: For any claim, dispute, or other matter in question between parties to this Contract arising out of or relating to this Contract or breach thereof, the parties shall first attempt to resolve such issue through discussions between MMI and Client. Any claim or dispute not resolved per the above discussions shall be subject to and decided by and through the process of nonbinding mediation. Such mediation process shall be done by and through an independent court-certified mediator. All mediation proceedings, hearings, and meetings shall be held in Cheshire, Connecticut. Any unsettled claims, disputes, or other matters in question between parties not settled and agreed to by this process of mediation shall be subject to and decided by and through litigation.

1000-01-2-j2618-ct-rpt.doc