Growth Modelling Activities since 1975

PNG FOREST GROWTH MODELLING SINCE 1975

Professor John Davidson10 commented that if one looks back over the past 20 years or so for PNG, plenty has been written by ACIAR, Universities and others on increasingly sophisticated methods of vegetation typing and stratification using better and better satellite imagery and GIS manipulation to report on areas allegedly deforested or degraded by whatever means but no one has been very fussed about accurately converting areas into wood volumes or biomass. John has not come across any reports of extensive sampling to produce new local PNG volume or biomass tables from raw plot data. On the one hand, some authors have resorted to quite simple conversions assuming a form factor of 0.5, plus perhaps species-specific parameters also borrowed from other authors, or more detailed assessments using generic equations published by others, among which e.g., Chave et al. (Tree allometry and improved estimation of carbon stocks and balance in tropical forests. Article in Oecologia Sept 2005.) is the most-often go-to source for “tropical wet forests” in PNG, e.g.,

This is from p93 Chave et al.: AGB = Above Ground Biomass (kg); D = trunk diameter (cm); H = tree height (m); ln = natural logarithm (log to the base e) Of 27 sites analysed by Chave et al. only one was from "New Guinea". Since 1975, most of the work by NFS on PNG natural rainforest growth functions has concentrated on permanent sample plots for natural rainforest in PNG rather than forest assessment for commercial purposes. It is of scientific interest here to correlate growth data and its methodologies over time. 1980 D Alder did an FAO Forestry Paper 22/2 vol 2 Rome titled Forest Volume Estimation and Yield Prediction.

1980 PNGRIS (Papua New Guinea Resource Information System) (Funded by AusAID and PNG). This project commenced in 1980 as a joint co-operative research project between the PNG Department of Primary Industry (DPI) (now Dept of Agriculture and Livestock) and CSIRO. It was envisaged as an inventory of natural resources, land use and population for the whole of PNG.

PNGRIS publications (ISSN 1320-5765) include: PNGRIS No 6 Papua New Guinea inventory of natural resources. Population Distribution and Land use handbook. ISBN 0642196109.

PNGRIS No 2 Forest Resources of Papua New Guinea ISBN 0642196036. CSIRO Division of Land Use Research Land research series No 35 Vegetation of Papua New Guinea ISBN 0643001387.

10 Personal Communication 6th June 2021 Professor John Davidson TPNG Forests 1962-1980. 20

1989 FAO funded and undertook a project in PNG titled Forest Management Research and Development FAO: DP/PNG/84/003. B Kingston was the Mensuration Adviser whose working document No 14 was titled FOREST MENSURATION IN THE NATURAL FOREST.

Kingston (p52) referred to all logs which were scaled by the NFS, and logging companies computed log volumes according to the Brereton log rule which is a standard accepted by the Southeast Asia log trade. Kingston (p52) reported that volumes in forest inventories are calculated from a tree volume equation which was developed by the CSIRO from data supplied by the Department of Forests. Kingston reports on his working document No 13 of FAO 1989 project Compilation of tree volume tables for the lowland forests. PNG/84/003 1991 Michael Adams11 reported details of the ITTO/PNG project PD 162/91 Intensification of growth and yield studies in previously logged forest. https://www.itto.int/project/id/PD162_91-Rev.1-F

Project/activity information The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) Official Web Site. www.itto.int

1992 D Alder Forest growth specialist undertook projects re PNG permanent plots and growth yields. Reports include: Alder D 1992. Simple methods for calculating minimum diameter and sustainable yield in mixed tropical forest. Proceedings of the Oxford Conference on Tropical Forests Wise Management of Tropical Forests. Oxford Forestry Institute. Alder D and Synott TC 1992. Permanent Sample Plot techniques for mixed tropical forests. Tropical Forestry Paper No 25 Oxford Forestry Institute 1995 Forest Resources and Vegetation Mapping E T Hammermaster and J C Saunders CSIRO/PNGRIS 1995 reflects the progress made in mapping PNG vegetation since the 1970’s with the advent of the computer era and associated digitisation.

11 Personal communication Dr Michael Adams ITTO 1 June 2021. 21

1997 David Freyne Team leader of the Land Mobilisation Project (ACLMP12) 1997, presented his unpublished report Resource Inventory: Developing the Management Database to the Foresters’ Refresher school FRI Lae 1997, as part of the PNG Forestry Human Resource Development Project funded by AusAid.

David Freyne described the rapid resource appraisal (RRA) of PNG forest resources, the resource inventory and the setting up of the FIM (forest information system) for use by the National Forest Service to assist with management of the forest resources of the country.

The development of the Papua New Guinea Resource Information System (PNGRIS) which took place between 1979 and 1987 marked the first attempt to compile a comprehensive nationwide inventory of PNG’s natural resources. This project commenced in 1980 as a joint co-operative research project between the PNG Department of Primary Industry (DPI) (now Dept of Agriculture and Livestock) and CSIRO. It is an inventory of natural resources, land use and population for the whole of PNG. At the time of its completion, the forest resources were not included.

In 1987, following the launching of PNGRIS, the Department of Forests requested the CSIRO be contracted to expand the database to include information on PNG’s forest resources. Following the United nation’s Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the World bank and AusAid supported the concept of a PNG National Forestry and Conservation Action Plan (NFCAP). Considering this development, and the original request from the Department of Forests, AusAID contracted CSIRO to undertake a rapid resource appraisal (RRA) of the nation’s resources. This RRA was the first of a series of studies which has resulted in the Forest Resource Inventory (FIM).

Under the contract to carry out a RRA of PNG’s forest resources, PNGRIS was upgraded to include 1:500,000 scale mapping of the resource. The upgraded version of PNGRIS with data on the forest resources included, provided users with capacity to make a first level assessment of forest resources at provincial and/or national level.

The forest resource information in PNGRIS constituted the principal data source for compilation of the National Forest Plan and Provincial Forest development Plans of 1966. However, it was apparent that the scale precluded the use of PNGRIS at timber concession or local level where the Department of Forests operational activities were focused.

Meanwhile efforts by the Department of Forests to obtain donor funding for a detailed national forest inventory were unsuccessful. CSIRO staff engaged on the RRA demonstrated

12 ACLMP Australian contribution to the World Bank funded Land Mobilization Program. 23

that it was possible to undertake vegetation mapping using the 1973-75 aerial photography and at the same time estimate species/volume distribution.

As the primary purpose was to determine which vegetation types carried potential merchantable forest and the species composition and volume content of those forest types, a methodology was developed that could be applied nationwide. This is described in detail in the publication Forest Resources and Vegetation Mapping E T Hammermaster and J C Saunders CSIRO/PNGRIS 1995.

The principal sources of data were the records of the National Forest Service, supplemented with data collected during CSIRO resource surveys, log harvest data and a small number of specified field sampling trips. No attempt was made to calculate the area of each forest type nor to summarise the volume of timber available on a concession, province, or national basis.

The RRA resulted in NFS having 1:100,000 and 1:250,000 scale forest type and vegetation maps for all of PNG but not accessible inventory data. This issue led to a further project funded by AusAID to incorporate forest inventory mapping as a component of ACLMP.

Outcomes of this project by the FIM system for the Department of Forests included:

• Mapping at 1975 baseline from the 1973/75 SKAIPIKSA aerial photography. • Information on the percentage merchantable species composition of each forest type and of gross stocking rate of each type in the FIM from NFS surveys and logging records. • A 1996 update of logged - over areas on the 1975 baseline mapping. • All concession areas (as known at 1966) mapped at 1:250,000 and added to the FIM system. • Production of mapping showing area with serious physical limitations which should be excluded from logging activities.

1998 PINFORM

Alder, D. 1998 PINFORM: a growth model for lowland tropical forest in Papua New Guinea unpublished Report to ITTO, Project PD 162/91. Alder, D., Oavika, F. and Yosi, C. 1998 Data, programs and models for natural forest growth and yield Unpublished Report to ITTO, Project PD 162/91. From the 1998 ITTO funded project, in the Alder (1998) PINFORM report, he gives a volume function V = 1.116kD2.4762, where k=0.00007854, which comes from an earlier report for the same ITTO project by Romjin, K (1994) where the original origin of the function was apparently not stated13 . 1998, the Forest Inventory Mapping (FIM) System was a computer-based forest resource inventory and management tool installed at the NFS. The original forest resource mapping and compilation of forest inventory information, on which the system was based was undertaken by CSIRO. Reference Sept 1998 Forest Resources of Papua New Guinea.

13 Personal communication April 2021 Prof Phil West.

Summary Statistics from the Forest Inventory Mapping System (FIM) compiled by J McAlpine and J Quigley. 2001 ACIAR 14Professor Rod Keenan described the PNG growth equations (where he had referred to there being currently only one generic volume equation applied to all timber species in PNG) from his project report appendix 7 titled ACIAR Project FST 98-118 Planning methods for sustainable management of timber stocks in PNG forests Review of forest inventory and mapping systems for forest planning - report based on trip to PNG from 19-29 November 2001 C. Brack, C. Bragg, I. Frakes, A. Gerrand, R. Keenan, P. Tickle, J. Vanclay

PNGFA “one way” volume function; Volume =0.00000515025*(PI()*DBH)^2.4762.

PNGFA “two way” volume function; Volume =0.189523+0.0000547982 * DBH ^ 2 0.0089213 * LENGTH + 0.0000528219 * DBH ^ 2 * LENGTH.

PNGRIS publications (ISSN 1320-5765) include: PNGRIS No 6 Papua New Guinea inventory of natural resources. Population Distribution and Land use handbook. ISBN 0642196109

PNGRIS No 2 Forest Resources of Papua New Guinea ISBN 0642196036 2001 Peki MM stand structure and growth of logged over natural forest in Papua New Guinea. Master of Agricultural Science Thesis Faculty of Agriculture. The University of Tokyo 145pp 2004 Peki M M The growth analysis and its application for management selective cutting natural forest in Papua New Guinea. PHD thesis graduate school of agriculture and life sciences Faculty of Agriculture. The University of Tokyo 249pp 2005 ACIAR Project FST98-118 Improved timber inventory and strategic forest planning in Papua New Guinea. Authors include R Keenan, Chris Brack, Ian Franks, Adam Gerrand 2011 ACIAR Native Forest management in Papua New Guinea: advances in assessment, modelling and decision-making. Editors Julian Fox, J Keenan, Chris Brack and Simon Saulei. 2021 Mex Peki Progress on the studies of growth of logged over natural forests in Papua New Guinea.

2021 Bob Tate15 PNGFIA advised that currently JICA has completed PNG Forest Inventory part 1 - high resolution satellite imagery 100%. Excellent & extremely useful work! EU is now funding part 2 - ground truthing the satellite data. Up to 600 randomly selected plots - measure everything & species etc.

Bob Tate confirmed that the old 1% sample was NOT for mapping but for "what is out there???”. Bob Tate is still working on getting a log volume table – he has put his copy away so carefully he will probably never find it!

14 Personal communication 9th June 2021 Prof Rod Keenan Melbourne University. 15 Personal communication 29th April 2021 Bob Tate PNGFIA. (Still there). 25

2021 PNG-FRIMS funded by JICA.

It is interesting to note that in 2021, the transcript of PNG-FRIMS on point 1.3.3 is as follows:

1.3.3 Functions of PNG-FRIMS (a) Forest Timber Volume Estimate (upgraded FIPS and FIMS) The project reviewed and enhanced FIPS and FIMS which were developed in the previous century and integrated forest information for the estimation of timber volume into the PNGFRIMS on the PNGFA‘s network. FIPS (Forest Inventory Processing System) FIMS (Forest Inventory Mapping System) Overview • FIPS estimates the timber volume of the expected logging project area based on the data of the inventory survey. • The estimated volume is to be used to determine an annual allowable cut of timber volume for the expected logging project. Basic functions • Enter survey information and assessment data from field books (including species, diameter, and length etc.) • Edit and process assessment data • Produce survey result and printout as summary report • Import assessment data from Excel file into FIPS and Export the Result of processed data from FIPS into Microsoft Excel format Overview • FIMS calculates the potential timber volume in any level of area such as national, provincial, and logging project. • The volume is calculated using forest type per unit timber volume and to be adjusted by logged volume data. • The volume estimate is to be utilized to develop forest plans (National/Provincial Forest plan). Basic functions • Enter survey information and assessment data from field books (including species, diameter, and length etc.) • Edit and process assessment data • Produce survey result and printout as summary report • Import assessment data from Excel file into FIPS, and Export the Result