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What the market means for you
BUYERS
INVESTORS
Conditions continue to favour well prepared buyers. National house and unit prices are now flat on a year ago at $980,000 and $730,000, and every capital recorded a monthly fall in house prices. Competition remains thin, with active bidders at 1.8 per auction, clearance rates at 46.3 per cent and open home attendance at 2.0 per home, the lowest in three years. However, the Reserve Bank’s fourth rate rise this year, taking the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, further reduces borrowing capacity. Softer prices do not automatically mean better affordability, so buyers should confirm their finances before acting.
Investors are dealing with higher holding costs as well as continued uncertainty following the Budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. The fourth rate rise this year adds directly to repayments on leveraged portfolios. Even so, there is still no clear evidence of a broad investor sell off, with sales listings broadly steady at 602,186 and new rental listings holding flat. Rental fundamentals remain supportive, with active rental listings down 2.6 per cent on a year ago and national unit rents up 4.8 per cent annually. Perth units and Darwin houses continue to record the strongest annual rental growth among the capitals.
SELLERS
FIRST HOME BUYERS
Vendors are facing one of the more challenging spring markets in recent years. The usual seasonal lift in listing activity has not appeared, with new listing authorities easing to 7,891 in September, 16.4 per cent below the same month last year. Fewer competing listings can help, but buyer depth is limited, and clearance rates at 46.3 per cent show many properties are not meeting vendor expectations on auction day. With the cash rate now at 4.60 per cent and unemployment rising to 4.6 per cent, buyers are cautious. Pricing in line with recent comparable sales, rather than earlier peaks, remains the clearest path to a result.
First home buyers are seeing less competition, particularly at the more affordable end of the market. Capital city units have held value better than houses, down 1.1 per cent annually compared with 2.0 per cent, and the five per cent deposit scheme continues to support entry for eligible buyers. Regional units, with a median of $670,000, remain $70,000 below the capital city median. The trade off is finance, with a cash rate of 4.60 per cent leaving borrowing capacity materially lower than at the start of the year. Before committing, first home buyers should test repayments against the possibility of further rate rises.
RENTERS Renters are seeing some early signs of easing, though conditions remain tight overall. Capital city house rents were flat or lower across every major city this month. Melbourne, Hobart and Sydney recorded falls of 2.1 to 2.5 per cent, and the national median house rent held at $670. Unit rents are still rising, up 4.8 per cent annually to $660 nationally, with Perth up 10.8 per cent. Supply remains the key constraint, with active rental listings at their lowest level since April 2024. Rising unemployment may limit how far rents can keep climbing, but renters should still expect competition for well located properties.
LANDLORDS Landlords continue to benefit from tight rental supply, with active rental listings down 2.6 per cent on a year ago and annual rent growth still positive across every capital. However, momentum is slowing. House rents were flat or lower across the capitals this month, and Melbourne’s annual house rent growth has eased to just 0.9 per cent. At the same time, a cash rate of 4.60 per cent increases holding costs for leveraged owners. Regional markets have recorded some of the largest annual rent increases, including 15.4 per cent for regional Western Australian houses, though smaller markets remain prone to sharp swings on lower volumes.
September sales volumes eased again, with 27,867 house sales and 11,880 unit sales recorded nationally, down 1.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent from August’s 28,176 and 11,969. Spring has so far brought no lift in activity. Last year, house sales jumped from 32,272 in August to 35,588 in September, and against that figure September’s house volumes are down 21.7 per cent, with units down 19.1 per cent from 14,680. The 12 month rolling averages continue to trend lower, now sitting at 30,356 house sales and 12,417 unit sales, down from 30,999 and 12,651 in August. The rolling house average is now at its lowest level since July 2024, and units are at their lowest since November 2023. Both have fallen steadily from the highs of 33,331 and 13,309 recorded in December last year. The Reserve Bank’s fourth rate rise of the year came at the very end of September, too late to show in these figures, so its effect on borrowing capacity and buyer confidence is more likely to appear in volumes over the coming months.
National values continued to ease in the latest month, with both houses and units now giving back the gains made over the past year. The national median house price sits at $980,000, down 1.2 per cent over the month and back below the $1 million mark, with annual growth now flat at no change. Units followed a similar path, falling 0.8 per cent over the month to $730,000, also unchanged on a year ago. The Reserve Bank’s decision in late September to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60 per cent, the fourth increase this year, adds to pressure on a market already adjusting to reduced borrowing capacity and the Budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes. The Bank has itself acknowledged that housing prices and activity have weakened by more than it expected. With unemployment rising to 4.6 per cent in August, buyers now have another reason for caution. Over the longer term, the decade picture remains intact, with houses up from $510,000 and units from $470,000 ten years ago, gains of 92.2 per cent and 55.3 per cent respectively.
Price falls were widespread across the capitals this month. Every major city recorded a monthly decline and the combined major cities’ median eased 1.4 per cent to $1.1 million, now 2.0 per cent lower than a year ago. Perth recorded the sharpest monthly fall at 3.4 per cent to $950,000, tipping it into annual decline at minus 0.7 per cent, a significant turn for a market that led growth for much of the cycle. Brisbane and Darwin both fell 2.4 per cent over the month. That leaves Brisbane down 2.7 per cent annually at $1.09 million, while Darwin is now the only capital still recording annual growth, up 0.9 per cent to $700,000. Adelaide dropped 2.0 per cent to $930,000 and is now down 1.3 per cent over the year. Sydney and Melbourne continue to record the steepest annual falls at 7.2 per cent and 7.3 per cent, to $1.6 million and $920,000, though monthly declines of 0.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent suggest the pace has moderated. Canberra eased 0.3 per cent to $990,000, down 2.7 per cent annually, while Hobart slipped 0.4 per cent to $790,000. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are now down 3.9 per cent and 3.3 per cent annually, to $1.34 million and $1.22 million. With prices now also falling in the previously stronger midsized major cities, the latest rate rise is likely to keep buyers cautious through spring.
Major city unit prices also weakened across the board, with the major cities’ median easing 0.9 per cent over the month to $740,000 and now down 1.1 per cent annually. The largest monthly falls came in the markets that had been strongest earlier in the year. Perth fell 4.0 per cent to $660,000, cutting its annual growth to just 0.4 per cent, while Brisbane dropped 3.2 per cent to $770,000 and has moved into a 0.5 per cent annual decline. Darwin fell 2.5 per cent over the month but remains the strongest annual performer, up 2.4 per cent to $430,000. Adelaide declined 2.4 per cent and is now essentially flat on a year ago, up 0.1 per cent to $650,000, with Hobart similarly flat at $590,000. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra moved little over the month but remain in annual decline, down 3.3, 3.8 and 1.5 per cent to $840,000, $620,000 and $610,000 respectively. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast both sit at $880,000, down 1.4 per cent and 1.1 per cent annually. Units have generally held value better than houses over the year, with their lower entry price becoming more relevant as each rate rise further reduces borrowing capacity.
Regional house markets continue to outperform the capitals on an annual basis, though the softening has now clearly spread beyond the major cities. The combined regional median sits at $780,000, down 0.7 per cent over the month and up 5.8 per cent on a year ago. Regional South Australia remains the strongest state performer at 4.2 per cent annual growth to $530,000, despite a 2.5 per cent monthly fall. Regional Victoria and regional Tasmania follow closely at 3.6 per cent and 3.5 per cent, to $670,000 and $620,000. Regional Western Australia recorded the largest monthly decline, down 3.1 per cent to $700,000, slowing annual growth to 2.6 per cent. Regional Queensland fell 2.2 per cent over the month to $770,000 and is now up just 1.6 per cent annually. Regional New South Wales has slowed the most, up only 0.6 per cent over the year to $830,000. Regional Northern Territory was the only market to record a monthly rise, edging up 0.2 per cent to $500,000. Regional markets are not insulated from higher rates, and a softening labour market is an added factor to watch, particularly in areas with a narrower employment base.
Regional unit markets show a similar pattern of monthly declines alongside still positive annual growth. The combined regional median eased 0.6 per cent to $670,000, up 4.9 per cent over the year and sitting $70,000 below the $740,000 median across the major cities. Regional South Australia leads annual growth at 4.0 per cent to $360,000, despite a 2.9 per cent monthly fall, followed by regional Victoria at 3.5 per cent to $460,000. Regional Western Australia recorded the sharpest monthly decline of 3.8 per cent to $490,000, leaving annual growth at 2.7 per cent, level with regional Tasmania at $460,000. Regional Queensland, the most expensive regional unit market at $700,000, fell 2.5 per cent over the month and is now up just 0.4 per cent annually. Regional New South Wales has moved into annual decline, down 0.1 per cent to $650,000. Regional Northern Territory was again the exception, rising 0.3 per cent over the month to $330,000. The price gap to the capitals continues to support demand from buyers seeking better value, though momentum has clearly cooled.
National sales listing volumes were again little changed over the month. Active listings on a 12 month rolling basis sat at 602,186 in September, up marginally from 601,322 in August. That remains below the 2026 high of 610,347 reached in April, but is well above the 591,692 recorded in December. New listings eased marginally to 512,115 from 512,533. It is the third consecutive monthly decline since the June high of 513,006, though the movement has been minimal and new listings remain well above January’s low of 492,759. Stable supply against easing sales activity suggests homes are taking longer to sell rather than stock building up quickly, with vendors so far showing little sign of rushing to market. There is still no clear evidence of a broad investor sell off following the Budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes. However, the September rate rise and rising unemployment add new pressures, and any shift in vendor behaviour is likely to show first in new listings over the coming months.
New listing authorities, a useful leading indicator of future supply, eased again in September to 7,891, down marginally from 7,928 in August. The spring selling season typically brings a clear lift in vendor activity. Last year, authorities jumped from 8,423 in August to 9,443 in September before peaking at 9,808 in October. In 2024 the lift came a little later, with authorities climbing to 9,333 in October. So far this year there is no sign of that seasonal uptick, with September’s figure down 16.4 per cent on the same month last year and 9.7 per cent below September 2024. Authorities have now drifted 18.3 per cent lower since the March peak of 9,655, a marked reversal from what had been an unusually strong start to the year. Some vendors are likely holding back while price growth softens and buyer depth at auction remains thin, and the latest rate rise may add to that hesitation. October will be telling: it has been the strongest month for authorities in each of the past two years, and a continued absence of the usual spring lift would point to a tighter flow of new stock heading into summer.
The tentative improvement in open home attendance through late winter has not carried into spring. After lifting from a mid-July low of 2.1 attendees per home to 2.2 through August, the four week rolling average eased through September. It fell to 2.1 in the week to 19 September, then slipped to 2.0 in the weeks to 26 September and 3 October, the lowest reading in three years of data. That is now below even the seasonal December lows of the past two years, when attendance bottomed at 2.2 in 2024 and 2.4 in 2025. The comparison with last spring is stark. The same week in 2025 recorded 3.9 attendees, with attendance having climbed from 3.5 in June to 4.1 by early September, while 2024 sat at 3.3. Current attendance is running at roughly half of last year’s level and well below the 4.7 recorded in January. With the September rate rise further reducing borrowing capacity and unemployment edging higher, the usual spring lift in buyer activity has yet to appear, and the coming weeks will show whether attendance has found a floor at these levels.
Active bidder numbers have stabilised at a low level through September, sitting at 1.8 per auction in the week to 3 October. This follows a dip to 1.7 in early September, after a brief lift to 2.0 in early August that was not sustained. Bidder depth remains well below the 3.3 recorded in January and compares unfavourably with the same week in both prior years, when active bidders averaged 3.2 in 2025 and 2.6 in 2024. The contrast with auction volumes is notable. The number of auctions has picked up with the start of spring, rising from 2,086 in late August to 2,850 in the four weeks to 3 October, almost exactly matching the 2,852 recorded at the same point last year. More properties are now coming to auction but are being met by around half the active bidders of a year ago, which leaves buyers with greater negotiating power. The September rate rise is unlikely to add competition in the near term, and with spring auction volumes typically continuing to build into November, bidder depth will be important to watch.
The auction day clearance rate has slipped to a new low for the year. It sat at 46.3 per cent in the weeks to 26 September and 3 October, below the July trough of 47.1 per cent and the lowest reading in three years of data. The mid-August lift to 52.1 per cent has now fully unwound. Clearance rates eased to 49.4 per cent by late August and moved between 46.9 per cent and 47.8 per cent through September. The gap to prior years remains wide. The same week in 2025 recorded 74.7 per cent and 2024
sat at 62.9 per cent, differences of 28.4 and 16.6 percentage points respectively. The current rate also compares with 74.6 per cent in January. With spring auction volumes building while bidder depth stays thin, more properties are being passed in. The September rate rise is likely to keep that pressure on clearance rates in the near term, making realistic reserves increasingly important for vendors choosing to sell under the hammer.
Major city house rents held steady overall this month, with the combined major cities median unchanged at $700 a week and annual growth of 6.1 per cent, a $40 increase over the year. The monthly picture was flat or softer across every capital. Melbourne recorded the largest fall, down 2.5 per cent to $585, and annual growth there has slowed to just 0.9 per cent. Hobart eased 2.3 per cent to $625 and Sydney fell 2.1 per cent to $830, an $18 drop, although both remain well up on a year ago at 8.7 per cent and 5.1 per cent. Darwin continues to lead annual growth at 9.6 per cent to $800, the largest dollar gain of any capital at $70. Perth followed at 7.1 per cent to $750. Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were unchanged over the month, with annual growth of 4.5, 4.8 and 4.3 per cent respectively. Nationally, the median house rent held at $670, up 3.1 per cent annually. Rents rose 3.6 per cent over the year to July in the latest inflation data, and with unemployment rising, tenants’ capacity to absorb further increases is likely to come under more pressure.
Unit rents in the major cities showed more upward movement than houses this month, though the combined cities median held at $680 a week, up 4.6 per cent annually. Hobart recorded the strongest monthly growth at 1.9 per cent to $545. Canberra rose 1.7 per cent to $600 and Brisbane 1.5 per cent to $660, each a $10 weekly increase, while Adelaide added 0.9 per cent to $575. Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin were all unchanged over the month. Perth remains the clear leader on an annual basis, up 10.8 per cent to $720, a $70 increase over the year, followed by Darwin at 8.3 per cent to $650. Sydney remains the most expensive capital for unit rents at $760. Across most other capitals, annual growth sits in a tighter range of 4.3 to 5.3 per cent, with Melbourne the softest at 4.3 per cent to $600. Nationally, the median unit rent sits at $660, up 1.5 per cent over the month and 4.8 per cent annually, continuing to outpace house rent growth in percentage terms.
Regional house rents were mixed this month, with the combined regional median easing 0.8 per cent to $615 a week, up 2.5 per cent annually. Regional Western Australia was the standout, rising 7.1 per cent over the month to $750, a $50 weekly increase, and 15.4 per cent over the year, a $100 gain. Regional Northern Territory still holds the largest annual increase, up 29.1 per cent or $160 to $710, despite a 4.1 per cent monthly fall. Regional South Australia recorded the steepest monthly decline, down 5.0 per cent to $475, though annual growth remains a solid 9.2 per cent. Regional Tasmania and regional New South Wales were unchanged over the month, with annual growth of 8.8 per cent to $520 and 6.7 per cent to $640. Regional Victoria eased 1.9 per cent to $520 and is up 4.0 per cent annually. Regional Queensland was flat at $690 and recorded the slowest annual growth at 2.2 per cent. The regional median remains $55 below the national figure of $670, with the gap to the capitals still offering renters some relief, though smaller markets continue to show sharper swings on lower volumes.
Regional unit rents were largely stable this month, with the combined regional median unchanged at $550 a week, up 1.9 per cent over the year. Movement was concentrated in the smaller markets. Regional Northern Territory recorded a 14.5 per cent monthly jump to $450, a $57 increase, lifting annual growth to 7.1 per cent. Regional South Australia moved the other way, falling 7.9 per cent over the month to $350, although it still holds the strongest annual growth at 12.9 per cent. Regional Western Australia rose 2.9 per cent over the month to $700, the most expensive regional unit market, with annual growth of 3.7 per cent. Regional Tasmania, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland were all unchanged over the month. Annual growth in these markets ranged from 9.8 per cent in regional Tasmania to $450, down to 1.5 per cent in regional Queensland to $660. Regional unit rents remain well below the national median of $660, though the sharp monthly swings in the Northern Territory and South Australia are a reminder that lower volumes can exaggerate short term movements.
Rental supply continues to tighten, though the pace of decline has slowed. Active rental listings on a 12 month rolling basis sat at 703,511 in September, down 0.1 per cent from 704,546 in August. That extends a steady fall from 717,786 in January and is the lowest level since April 2024. Against a year ago, active stock is down 2.6 per cent from 722,573 in September 2025. New rental listings have levelled off, edging up to 653,853 from 653,563 in August and holding within a narrow range around 653,000 to 654,000 since July. They remain
2.2 per cent below the 668,342 recorded a year earlier. Over the longer term, active listings sit 17.3 per cent below the 2020 peak of 850,791, underlining how much rental supply has contracted since the pandemic. The flattening in new listings suggests investors are largely holding rather than exiting following the Budget changes. However, a fourth rate rise this year lifts holding costs for leveraged landlords, while rising unemployment may limit how much further tenants can absorb rent increases.
The value of unconditional sales fell to $4.8 billion in September, down 5.9 per cent from $5.1 billion in August and well below the 2026 high of $7.5 billion recorded in March. Sales numbers fell more sharply, down 14.0 per cent to 4,425 from 5,143. Outside the seasonal January lull, this is the lowest monthly volume since June 2020, and the lowest monthly value since December 2023. Against September last year the decline is more pronounced, with value down 36.4 per cent from $7.5 billion and volume down 35.7 per cent
from 6,887. It has now fallen for six consecutive months since the March peak, while rolling volume eased to 5,764 from 5,970. Recent months are subject to reporting lags and are often revised higher as contracts settle, but the consistency of the decline across both monthly and rolling measures points to a sustained slowdown in settled transactions. With the late September rate rise yet to flow through, there is little in the current data to suggest activity has found a base.
METHODOLOGY
Pricing data Price data is sourced from our research partners at Neoval Research Group, providing comprehensive coverage across all major Australian capital cities and regional markets. Price movements are calculated using median values to ensure accurate representation of typical market performance.
three years, providing crucial insight into future supply trends and vendor sentiment before properties enter the active market. Auction and sales data Auction performance metrics are derived from Ray White’s auction database, covering all Ray White auction activities
Why median?
across Australia.
The median provides a reliable measure of the “typical”
Bidder activity: monthly data tracking both registered bidders
market price by identifying the middle value when all sales are
per property and active bidders per auction over the last
arranged in order. Unlike arithmetic averages, which can be
three years, providing insights into buyer engagement levels
distorted by extreme high or low sales, the median represents
and competitive intensity.
the price point where half the properties sold for more and half sold for less. This methodology is particularly valuable when analysing property markets as it reduces the impact of outliers – such as exceptionally expensive waterfront properties or distressed sales – providing a truer reflection of what most buyers and sellers experience in the market. The median effectively captures the centre of the market distribution, making it an ideal measure for tracking genuine price movements over time. Tasmania exception: Due to licensing restrictions, median
Clearance rates: monthly auction clearance rates calculated as the percentage of properties sold at auction relative to total properties offered, tracked over three years to identify seasonal patterns and market strength indicators. Total unconditional sales: Ray White’s internal sales data tracking the total dollar value of all unconditional property sales completed each month over the last three years. This metric provides insight into both transaction volumes and the impact of price appreciation on overall market value.
data from Neoval is not available for Tasmania. For Tasmanian
Temporal framework
markets, we utilise the Median Sales AVM Value from
All data series are presented on a monthly basis covering the
Cotality, which represents the median (50th percentile) estimated sales value of all properties based on the hedonic imputation method. Listing data National property listing volumes are sourced from Domain, Australia’s leading property portal, providing comprehensive coverage of new property listings across all markets. National listings: presented as monthly counts spanning the last three years (2023-2025) to identify seasonal patterns and year-over-year trends in property supply. Major city and regional listings: current month data is presented with both monthly percentage change (comparison to previous month) and annual percentage change (comparison to same month in previous year) to highlight both short-term fluctuations and longer-term supply trends. Listing authorities: Ray White’s proprietary forward-looking metric representing properties where vendors have signed listing agreements but properties have not yet been marketed. This data is presented as monthly counts over
three-year period from 2023 to 2025, enabling identification of seasonal patterns, cyclical trends, and year-over-year comparisons. This timeframe captures the full interest rate cycle from peak rates through to the current cutting cycle, providing context for current market dynamics. All data sources represent substantial market coverage but may not capture 100 per cent of market activity. Price data from Neoval provides broad market representation, while auction and sales data specifically reflects Ray White’s market participation. Regional variations in data coverage may exist, with metropolitan markets generally providing more comprehensive data than smaller regional centres.
R AY W H I T E E C O N O M I C S T E A M
NERIDA CONISBEE
VANESSA RADER
ATOM GO TIAN
Chief Economist
Head of Research
Economist
ANITA VENKATESH
PAULO SUMULONG
KEVIN WANG
Content Strategy and Production Lead
Data Scientist
Content Production Coordinator
A B O U T R AY W H I T E Ray White stands at the forefront of real estate in Australia and New Zealand. Founded in regional Queensland in 1902 and still owned and led by the White family, the network spans almost 1,000 offices. Powered by a collective of more than 13,500 members, the group achieved over 100,000 property sales last year, exceeding $103 billion in value. Combining regional reach with local market expertise, the group continues to deliver market-leading results. Under Managing Director Dan White’s leadership, operations extend across residential, commercial, and rural property, as well as hotels, marine, property management, and investment advisory. Holding strong momentum and commanding market share, the group called 39,035 auctions across Australia and New Zealand last year, reflecting Ray White’s championing of open, competitive sale processes to elevate outcomes for clients.
© Ray White Real Estate Partnership Australia 2026 Version 94 – October 2026