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Sales activity has softened further in July, continuing a trend that has been building for several months now. The 12 month rolling average sits at 31,955 house sales and 12,994 unit sales, down from the recent peak of 33,551 house sales and 13,484 unit sales recorded in March. This is a gradual decline rather than a sharp correction, but it marks four consecutive months of easing in the rolling figures after a period of relative stability through late 2025 and early 2026. The monthly numbers tell a more immediate story. Actual house sales fell to 27,527 in June before recovering only modestly to 29,191 in July, while unit sales followed the same pattern, dropping to 11,043 in June and lifting slightly to 11,271 in July. Both remain well below the levels recorded across April and May and considerably below July last year, when monthly house and unit sales sat at 36,098 and 14,719 respectively, a fall of around 19 per cent and 23 per cent year on year. This slowdown lines up closely with the cycle of events, three rate increases this year have steadily reduced borrowing capacity, the Federal Budget has introduced genuine uncertainty for investors around negative gearing and capital gains tax, and open home attendance has fallen to its lowest level since our series began. Each of these has chipped away at buyer urgency rather than causing any single sharp shock and July’s sales figures reflect the cumulative effect of that pressure building month on month. With the rolling average now trending lower for four straight months, this looks less like a seasonal pause and more like the transaction market catching up to the weaker conditions already evident in attendance and clearance data.

Australia’s housing downturn broadened through July. National dwelling values fell 0.7 per cent over the month and 1.9 per cent over the quarter, with houses recording the larger falls, down 0.8 per cent monthly and 2.0 per cent over the quarter, compared with 0.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent for units. The national median house price now sits at $1.01 million, having eased back from its 2026 peak, while units continue to track higher at $750,000, having shown more resilience through the downturn to date. Sales volumes remain elevated by historical standards, with the 12 month rolling average at 32,000 house sales and 13,000 unit sales, though monthly activity has softened from the highs recorded earlier in the year. Higher interest rates have reduced borrowing capacity, lifted mortgage repayments and weakened buyer confidence, while the Federal Budget has added further uncertainty, particularly among investors. Homes are also taking longer to sell, with vendors increasingly having to adjust their expectations. A dramatic national decline remains unlikely, however, given the extent to which construction costs have risen since 2019. Established homes cannot remain materially below the cost of building new supply for long without construction slowing further and that dynamic continues to place a limit on how far prices can sustainably fall.

The premium end of the market continued to lead the correction in July, with Sydney and Melbourne both recording annual falls, down 3.4 per cent to $1.64 million and $940,000 respectively. Sydney fell 1.2 per cent over the month and Melbourne 1.4 per cent, extending a run of weakness that has now persisted for some time in both cities. Brisbane has now joined the decline, falling 1.3 per cent monthly, a notable shift for a market that had been among the strongest performers earlier in the cycle. Adelaide also softened, with a 0.9 per cent monthly fall. Perth and Darwin remain the standout performers on an annual basis, up 10.2 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively, though both recorded monthly falls of 0.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent, suggesting even the strongest markets are now losing momentum rather than remaining immune to the broader slowdown. Canberra is now in negative annual territory, down 0.5 per cent, while the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast continue to show modest annual growth of 4.0 per cent and 3.3 per cent, both easing over the month. Across the eight capitals combined, the median house price sits at $1.15 million, down 1.0 per cent over the month but still 4.2 per cent higher than a year ago.

Units have held up better than houses this month, falling a more modest 0.6 per cent across the major cities to a national median of $750,000, with annual growth still positive at 3.9 per cent. Perth again led annual growth among units, up 14.4 per cent, followed by Darwin at 11.6 per cent and Brisbane at 9.9 per cent, though Perth was essentially flat over the month at minus 0.1 per cent and Darwin recorded no change at all. Melbourne remains the weakest unit market, down 1.5 per cent annually and 0.7 per cent over the month, while Sydney units slipped 0.5 per cent annually despite a relatively steady median of $850,000 and a modest 0.4 per cent monthly fall. Adelaide and the Gold Coast continued to record solid annual gains of 8.4 per cent and 6.4 per cent respectively. The cheaper end of the unit market continues to attract first home buyers using the five per cent deposit scheme, though weaker investor demand following the Budget means this support is no longer sufficient to fully insulate the segment from the broader slowdown affecting the market more widely, particularly in the larger southern capitals.

Regional markets continue to outperform the capitals on an annual basis, with the combined regional median at $790,000, up 9.9 per cent over the year despite a 0.2 per cent monthly fall. Regional WA remains the strongest performer, up 13.1 per cent annually to $720,000, followed by regional SA at 12.4 per cent to $560,000. Regional Queensland and regional New South Wales are now equal on median price at $840,000, though regional Queensland has posted the stronger annual gain at 8.0 per cent against 4.1 per cent for regional New South Wales. Regional Tasmania recorded annual growth of 8.4 per cent, while regional Victoria and regional Northern Territory trailed the pack at 6.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent respectively. Every regional market recorded a monthly decline in July, ranging from a modest 0.1 per cent in regional South Australia to 0.7 per cent in regional Queensland, indicating the correction is now reaching areas that had largely been insulated from the capital city slowdown to this point. Regional Australia as a whole remains considerably more affordable than the capitals, with the $790,000 median sitting well below the $1.01 million national figure, a gap that continues to support demand from buyers priced out of metropolitan markets.

Regional units recorded no change over the month nationally, holding at a median of $680,000, though annual growth remains solid at 8.6 per cent. Regional Western Australia again led annual growth at 14.5 per cent to $550,000, followed by regional South Australia at 12.7 per cent to $400,000, the latter also the only region to record positive monthly growth, up 0.1 per cent. Regional Tasmania posted annual growth of 7.4 per cent, while regional Queensland remains the most expensive regional unit market at $810,000 despite a 0.5 per cent monthly fall and annual growth of 6.7 per cent. Regional Victoria recorded annual growth of 5.9 per cent and regional Northern Territory and regional New South Wales trailed at 3.9 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively, both easing slightly over the month. The consistency of annual gains across regional unit markets, even as monthly figures ease or flatten, suggests regional affordability continues to draw buyers who have been priced out of, or unsettled by, the capital city correction. At $680,000, the regional unit median remains well below the $750,000 recorded across the major cities, reinforcing the relative value proposition regional markets continue to offer.

New sales listings have continued to build through 2026, with the 12 month rolling figure now at 512,737, up from a low of 492,048 in January and around 2.1 per cent higher than the 502,045 recorded in July last year. This marks the first time in several months that new listings have moved clearly above the year ago comparison, a shift from the softer flow recorded through most of late 2025. Active listings, by contrast, have eased slightly from their recent high of 609,711 in April to 602,706 in July, a modest pullback of around 1.1 per cent, though stock remains well above where it sat a year ago. The combination of rising new listings and gently easing active stock suggests properties are moving through the market, whether by sale or withdrawal, at a pace that is broadly keeping up with the increased flow of new supply, rather than a backlog building. This comes against a backdrop of genuine uncertainty particularly for property investors around negative gearing and capital gains tax changes. It would be reasonable to expect this uncertainty to prompt more investors to list, yet our auction data shows no evidence of an investor sell-off, with investor vendor numbers actually falling by a similar magnitude to investor buyer numbers since the Budget. The rise in new listings appears to be a broader vendor response rather than one concentrated among investors, consistent with more owners testing a market that is showing clear signs of softening.

New listing authorities (a good bellwether to future listing volumes) have fallen sharply through the middle of the year, with July recording 7,002, the lowest monthly total in the current data and around 19 per cent below both July 2025 and July 2024, which sat at 8,665 and 8,680 respectively. This represents a marked shift from how the year began. Listing authorities in early 2026 were running well ahead of the prior two years, peaking at 9,661 in March compared with 8,413 in March 2025 and 7,763 in March 2024, suggesting vendors were more willing to bring properties to market at the start of the year than in either of the previous two comparable periods. That early strength has steadily eroded since. Authorities declined in each of the four months from April through July, falling from 8,375 in April to 8,287 in May, 8,142 in June and now 7,002 in July, a cumulative fall of around 16 per cent over that period. This pattern lines up closely with the economic and policy events of recent months. These pressures appear to be discouraging vendors from committing to sell, reversing what had been a genuinely strong start to 2026 for new listing activity.

Average attendance at open homes has continued to sit at historically low levels through the back half of July, though the pace of decline finally appears to be levelling out. The four week rolling average has held steady at 2.1 across the four weeks to 1 August, the first sustained pause in the decline since attendance began falling steadily from the start of the year. This compares with 3.6 for the equivalent week in July 2025, meaning attendance remains around 41 per cent lower than a year ago, but the recent flattening suggests the market may be finding a floor rather than continuing to deteriorate. The scale of this year’s fall has been considerable. Attendance opened 2026 at 4.6 in mid January before entering a sustained slide through autumn and winter, dropping below 3.0 by late April and below 2.2 by June. This decline predates the Federal Budget and has continued through three interest rate increases this year, alongside ongoing uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, all of which have weighed on buyer confidence and reduced the urgency with which people are attending inspections. The last few weeks of data are encouraging in that they show the first signs of stabilisation, though it remains too early to say whether this marks a genuine turning point or a temporary pause ahead of the spring selling season.

Bidder numbers at auction have improved in July, with registered bidders averaging 2.6 per property and active bidders 1.9, both up from June’s 2.4 and 1.8. On a six month rolling basis, registered bidders now average 3.0 and active bidders 2.1, down from a rolling average of 4.3 and 2.8 as recently as January. This represents one of the more pronounced declines in bidder activity we have tracked, with the monthly figures falling in almost every month since January’s spike of 5.0 registered and 3.1 active bidders. The year-on-year comparison highlights just how much conditions have shifted. July 2026’s 2.6 registered and 1.9 active bidders compared with 4.5 and 3.0 respectively in July 2025, shows a fall of around 42 per cent and 37 per cent over the year. Unlike the relatively steady bidder numbers recorded through most of 2023, 2024 and into early 2025, this year has seen a clear and sustained thinning of the buyer pool at auction.

The auction day clearance rate has fallen sharply through 2026, dropping from 71.9 per cent in the last week of January to a low of 47.0 per cent in the week ending 18 July, before edging higher over the past two readings to 47.7 per cent and then 49.2 per cent by 1 August. This modest uptick is the first sign of stabilisation after a near unbroken six month slide, though it is too early to say whether it marks a genuine turning point. The year-on-year comparison underlines the scale

of the shift. The 49.2 per cent recorded for the week ending 1 August compares with 76.0 per cent for the equivalent week in 2025, a fall of close to 27 percentage points and stands well below the 65.1 per cent recorded in the same week of 2024. Rate increases, Budget related uncertainty and a thinner pool of active bidders have all weighed on results at auction this year, producing a materially weaker clearance environment than either of the past two years.

Capital city house rents continued to climb in July, with the combined major cities median reaching $700 a week, up 0.7 per cent over the month and 7.7 per cent over the year, a $50 annual increase. Darwin recorded the strongest monthly growth at 3.3 per cent, taking the median to $780 and delivering annual growth of 13.0 per cent, the largest dollar increase of any capital at $90 over the year. Sydney remains the most expensive capital for house rents at $850 a week, up 2.4 per cent over the month and 9.0 per cent annually, an increase of $70 over the past twelve months. Perth and Canberra were unchanged over the month but both recorded solid annual growth of 7.9 per cent, each adding $55 to their weekly medians of $750. Brisbane rents rose 7.7 per cent annually to $700, also flat over the month. Melbourne remains the most subdued major rental market, recording no monthly movement and annual growth of just 2.6 per cent to $590. Hobart was the only capital to record a monthly fall, down 1.6 per cent, though annual growth still sits at a healthy 6.9 per cent. Nationally, the median house rent stands at $670, up 0.8 per cent over the month and 4.7 per cent over the year.

Unit rents across the capitals posted stronger monthly growth than houses in July, with the major cities’ median rising 2.2 per cent to $690 and annual growth of 7.0 per cent. Hobart recorded the largest annual increase among unit markets at 17.0 per cent, a $80 lift to a median of $550, alongside solid monthly growth of 3.8 per cent. Sydney remains the most expensive capital for unit rents at $775 a week, up 3.3 per cent over the month and 7.6 per cent annually. Melbourne posted matching monthly growth of 3.3 per cent, taking its median to $620 and annual growth to 7.8 per cent. Perth continues to record strong annual gains, up 10.8 per cent to $720, with a more modest 0.7 per cent increase over the month. Darwin unit rents grew 12.5 per cent annually to $650, though the market was flat over the month. Brisbane recorded annual growth of 6.4 per cent to $665, while Canberra and Adelaide posted more modest annual gains of 3.4 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively. Nationally, the median unit rent reached $670, up a notable 3.1 per cent over the month and 8.1 per cent over the year, continuing the trend of unit rents outpacing house rents in percentage terms this year.

Regional house rents recorded broad based growth in July, with the combined regional median reaching $610, down 1.6 per cent over the month but still up 3.4 per cent over the year. Regional Northern Territory stood out with monthly growth of 14.5 per cent, taking its median to $710 and the strongest annual growth of any regional market at 17.4 per cent, a $105 increase over the year. Regional Western Australia also recorded strong growth, up 4.2 per cent over the month to $750 and 15.4 per cent annually, adding $100 to its weekly median. Regional Tasmania posted annual growth of 13.0 per cent to $520 despite a 1.9 per cent monthly fall. Regional Queensland rents rose 1.5 per cent over the month to $690, with annual growth of 6.2 per cent. Regional Victoria and regional New South Wales recorded more modest annual growth of 4.0 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively, both easing slightly over the month. Regional South Australia was the softest performer, falling 4.0 per cent over the month though still up 6.7 per cent annually to $480. Nationally, the median house rent of $670 sits above the regional figure, reflecting continued rental demand pressure in the capitals even as regional markets record their own pockets of strong growth.

Regional unit rents were more mixed in July, with the combined regional median holding steady at $550 over the month, though annual growth remains firm at 4.8 per cent. Regional Western Australia led both monthly and annual growth, up 3.8 per cent over the month to $675 and 12.5 per cent over the year, a $75 increase. Regional Queensland followed closely, up 3.1 per cent monthly to $670 and 8.1 per cent annually. Regional Tasmania recorded annual growth of 8.9 per cent despite a 2.3 per cent monthly fall to $430, a pattern also seen in regional Victoria, which fell 2.3 per cent over the month but held annual growth of 2.4 per cent. Regional Northern Territory rents fell 2.4 per cent over the month to $410, with annual growth flat at 0.0 per cent. Regional South Australia recorded the largest monthly fall of any market in this report, down 12.8 per cent to $340, though annual growth remains modestly positive at 1.5 per cent, a reminder that smaller regional markets can see sharper swings on lower transaction volumes. Regional New South Wales held steady over the month at $540, up 3.8 per cent annually. Nationally, the median unit rent of $670 now sits well above the regional figure of $550, underlining the affordability gap that continues to draw renters toward regional areas.

Rental listing activity has continued to ease gradually through 2026. Active rental listings on a 12 month rolling basis stand at 706,547 in July, down from 718,366 in January and around 3.1 per cent lower than the 729,493 recorded in July last year. New rental listings show a similar pattern, at 653,049 in July compared with 659,903 in January and 671,523 a year earlier, a fall of close to 2.8 per cent over the twelve months.

The decline has been steady rather than sharp, with both active and new listings drifting lower month by month since the turn of the year rather than showing any sudden shift. This continues a longer running trend of tightening rental supply, which lines up with the ongoing growth recorded in weekly rents across both houses and units. With fewer properties entering and remaining on the rental market, conditions are likely to remain favourable for landlords in the near term, even as the sales market shows clearer signs of softening.

The total value of unconditional sales fell to $4.5 billion in the latest month, down sharply from the $7.5 billion recorded just two months earlier and well below the peaks of over $8 billion reached in early 2026. This is consistent with the broader slowdown in transaction activity, with fewer active buyers, weaker auction clearance rates and declining bidder numbers all pointing

to the same underlying trend. Unconditional sales figures can be volatile month to month and are subject to reporting lags, but the scale of this fall reflects a genuine cooling in settled transaction volumes as higher rates, Budget related uncertainty and softer buyer confidence continue to work their way through the market.

METHODOLOGY

Pricing data Price data is sourced from our research partners at Neoval Research Group, providing comprehensive coverage across all major Australian capital cities and regional markets. Price movements are calculated using median values to ensure accurate representation of typical market performance.

three years, providing crucial insight into future supply trends and vendor sentiment before properties enter the active market. Auction and sales data Auction performance metrics are derived from Ray White’s auction database, covering all Ray White auction activities

Why median?

across Australia.

The median provides a reliable measure of the “typical”

Bidder activity: monthly data tracking both registered bidders

market price by identifying the middle value when all sales are

per property and active bidders per auction over the last

arranged in order. Unlike arithmetic averages, which can be

three years, providing insights into buyer engagement levels

distorted by extreme high or low sales, the median represents

and competitive intensity.

the price point where half the properties sold for more and half sold for less. This methodology is particularly valuable when analysing property markets as it reduces the impact of outliers – such as exceptionally expensive waterfront properties or distressed sales – providing a truer reflection

Clearance rates: monthly auction clearance rates calculated as the percentage of properties sold at auction relative to total properties offered, tracked over three years to identify seasonal patterns and market strength indicators.

of what most buyers and sellers experience in the market.

Total unconditional sales: Ray White’s internal sales data

The median effectively captures the centre of the market

tracking the total dollar value of all unconditional property

distribution, making it an ideal measure for tracking genuine

sales completed each month over the last three years. This

price movements over time.

metric provides insight into both transaction volumes and the

Tasmania exception: Due to licensing restrictions, median

impact of price appreciation on overall market value.

data from Neoval is not available for Tasmania. For Tasmanian

Temporal framework

markets, we utilise the Median Sales AVM Value from

Data series are shown over timeframes suited to each metric:

Cotality, which represents the median (50th percentile)

pricing, sales volume, and listings series span 10 years; auction

estimated sales value of all properties based on the hedonic

bidder activity spans 5 years; and open home attendance,

imputation method.

clearance rates, and listing authorities span 3 years, to highlight

Listing data

more recent seasonal and cyclical shifts. Some series (sales

National property listing volumes are sourced from Domain, Australia’s leading property portal, providing comprehensive coverage of new property listings across all markets. National listings: presented as monthly counts spanning the last three years (2023-2025) to identify seasonal patterns and year-over-year trends in property supply.

volumes, active/new listings, open home attendance, clearance rates, and rents) are presented as rolling averages to smooth short-term volatility; others (median prices, unconditional sales value, bidder counts, listing authorities) reflect raw monthly figures. All series update monthly. All data sources represent substantial market coverage but may not capture 100 per cent of market activity. Price data

Major city and regional listings: current month data is

from Neoval provides broad market representation, while

presented with both monthly percentage change (comparison

auction and sales data specifically reflects Ray White’s market

to previous month) and annual percentage change

participation. Regional variations in data coverage may

(comparison to same month in previous year) to highlight both

exist, with metropolitan markets generally providing more

short-term fluctuations and longer-term supply trends.

comprehensive data than smaller regional centres.

Listing authorities: Ray White’s proprietary forward-looking metric representing properties where vendors have signed listing agreements but properties have not yet been marketed. This data is presented as monthly counts over

R AY W H I T E E C O N O M I C S T E A M

ATOM GO TIAN

JORDAN TORMEY

PAOLO SUMULONG

NERIDA CONISBEE

VANESSA RADER

KEVIN WANG

ANITA VENKATESH

Economist

Strategist

Data Scientist

Chief Economist

Head of Research

Content Production

Content Strategy and

Coordinator

Production Lead

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