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What the market means for you

BUYERS

INVESTORS

Buyers have more negotiating power than at any point in the past three years. National house prices are down 3.0 per cent on a year ago at $960,000 and units 2.2 per cent at $720,000. Competition is thin, with 1.5 active bidders per auction, a clearance rate of 39.0 per cent and 1.9 attendees per open home. The trade off is the cost of finance. The cash rate is now 4.85 per cent, its highest level since 2008, so borrowing capacity is lower than at the start of the year. Buyers should reconfirm their pre-approval and test repayments before committing.

Falling values and rising rents are improving returns in the capitals. Major city unit values are down 3.3 per cent over the year while rents are up 4.6 per cent, lifting gross yields to around 4.8 per cent on median figures. Rental supply remains tight, with active rental listings down 2.8 per cent on a year ago. However, at an elevated cash rate, borrowing costs remain above rental returns for most leveraged buyers. The Budget’s negative gearing changes also reduce the ability to offset those losses. Investors with equity may find opportunities, but cash flow needs careful testing.

SELLERS

FIRST HOME BUYERS

This has been one of the most difficult spring selling seasons in recent memory. Clearance rates have fallen below 40 per cent, and many auctions are attracting only one active bidder. Many owners are choosing to wait, with listing authorities down 22.9 per cent on last October. That means less competing stock, but also a much smaller pool of buyers. With a fifth rate rise this year and unemployment at 4.7 per cent, buyers are cautious and price sensitive. Vendors who need to sell should price against recent comparable sales and be prepared to negotiate after auction day.

First home buyers face less competition than a year ago, particularly for units. Capital city unit values have fallen 3.3 per cent annually, less than the 5.3 per cent fall for houses, and the five per cent deposit scheme continues to support entry. Regional units, at a median of $660,000, remain $70,000 below the major cities. The challenge is affordability on the borrowing side, with interest rates now at their highest level since 2008. With unemployment rising, first home buyers should consider job security as well as repayments, and build in a buffer for the possibility of further rate rises.

RENTERS Rental conditions remain tight even as the sales market weakens. The national median unit rent is up 4.0 per cent annually to $650 and houses are up 3.1 per cent to $670. Active rental listings are at their lowest level since March 2024, and new rental supply fell in October as fewer investors buy. There is some relief in the larger capitals, with Sydney and Melbourne house rents both falling this month. However, ongoing population growth continues to support demand. Renters should expect competition for well located properties to persist, particularly in Darwin, Perth and Brisbane.

LANDLORDS Landlords continue to benefit from limited rental supply and steady demand. Annual rent growth remains positive across every capital except Melbourne houses, which are flat, and Darwin leads with annual growth of 14.3 per cent for houses and 14.0 per cent for units. Fewer new rental listings should keep vacancies low. However, holding costs have risen again with cash rate increases this year, and rising unemployment is beginning to limit what tenants can afford, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Landlords should keep rents in line with local conditions, as retaining a reliable tenant is likely to outweigh a marginal increase.

Sales volumes recorded only a marginal lift in October, well short of the usual spring increase. There were 27,538 house sales and 11,728 unit sales nationally, both up 0.8 per cent from September’s 27,307 and 11,630. In a typical year, October is one of the busiest months for transactions. Last year house sales reached 39,494 and unit sales 16,021, so October’s volumes are down 30.3 per cent and 26.8 per cent on a year ago. They are also well below October 2024, when 35,447 houses and 14,673 units sold. The 12 month rolling averages continue to trend lower. They now sit at 29,087 house sales and 11,924 unit sales, down from 30,083 and 12,282 in September. The rolling house average is at its lowest level since February 2024 and units are at their lowest since August 2023. Both have fallen steadily from the December highs of 33,358 and 13,321. October was the first full month after the September rate rise, and the further increase in November makes a recovery in activity before the summer break unlikely.

National values fell further in October, pushing both houses and units into annual decline. The national median house price eased 1.4 per cent over the month to $960,000 and is now 3.0 per cent lower than a year ago, a sharp turn from the flat annual result recorded in September. Units fell 0.8 per cent to $720,000, down 2.2 per cent over the year. October was the first full month after the Reserve Bank’s late September increase. The Bank has since lifted rates again in November, the fifth rise this year, taking the cash rate to 4.85 per cent. That is its highest level since late 2008, during the global financial crisis. The tightening reflects inflation that remains well above target, with headline inflation at 4.3 per cent in September and underlying inflation at 3.6 per cent. At the same time, employment fell by almost 40,000 over the month and unemployment rose to 4.7 per cent. Higher repayments and a softer labour market are weighing on both borrowing capacity and buyer confidence. Units continue to hold value better than houses, helped by their lower entry price. Over the decade, houses remain up 88.2 per cent from $510,000 and units 53.2 per cent from $470,000.

House prices fell further across most capitals in October. The combined major cities’ median eased 1.6 per cent over the month to $1.08 million and is now down 5.3 per cent annually, a marked deterioration from the 2.0 per cent annual fall recorded last month. Darwin has now joined the other capitals in annual decline, down 0.8 per cent to $700,000 after a 1.7 per cent monthly fall, leaving no capital with year on year growth. Perth fell 1.5 per cent to $950,000 and is down 2.9 per cent annually, while Adelaide eased 0.9 per cent to $930,000, down 3.0 per cent. Brisbane and Melbourne both fell 1.0 per cent, to $1.08 million and $910,000, with annual declines of 5.1 and 8.9 per cent. Sydney and Canberra were the only capitals to record monthly gains, up 0.7 per cent to $1.59 million and 0.3 per cent to $990,000. Even so, Sydney still has the steepest annual fall at 9.1 per cent. Hobart was close to flat at $780,000. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast eased to $1.33 million and $1.21 million, down 6.0 and 5.7 per cent annually. With November’s increase taking the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, further near term price weakness is likely.

Unit prices across the major cities continued to ease, though generally at a slower pace than houses. The combined median fell 0.7 per cent over the month to $730,000 and is now down 3.3 per cent annually, compared with a 5.3 per cent fall for houses. Perth recorded the sharpest monthly decline for a second month, down 2.3 per cent to $660,000, moving into a 1.9 per cent annual fall. Darwin fell 2.1 per cent to $430,000 but remains the only capital still recording annual growth, up 0.6 per cent. Brisbane eased 1.7 per cent to $760,000, down 2.6 per cent over the year, while Adelaide fell 1.5 per cent to $640,000 and is down 1.1 per cent. Melbourne slipped 0.3 per cent to $620,000 and has the weakest annual result at minus 4.8 per cent, followed by Sydney at minus 4.2 per cent to $850,000. Sydney and Canberra both edged up 0.1 per cent, with Canberra at $610,000. Hobart was broadly steady at $590,000. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast both sit at $870,000, down 3.0 and 2.7 per cent annually. As borrowing capacity tightens further, the lower entry price of units continues to support relative demand.

Regional house prices continue to outperform the capitals over the year, though every regional market recorded a monthly fall in October. The combined regional median eased 0.7 per cent to $770,000 and is up 3.5 per cent annually, slower than the 5.8 per cent recorded last month. Regional South Australia remains the strongest performer at 2.3 per cent annual growth to $520,000, despite a 1.6 per cent monthly fall. Regional Victoria follows at 2.1 per cent to $660,000 and regional Tasmania at 1.7 per cent to $610,000. Regional Western Australia recorded the largest monthly decline for a second month, down 2.1 per cent to $690,000, leaving annual growth at just 0.1 per cent. Regional Queensland fell 1.5 per cent to $760,000 and has moved into annual decline, down 0.5 per cent. Regional New South Wales, the most expensive regional market at $820,000, is down 1.3 per cent over the year. Regional Northern Territory was close to flat at $510,000. The regional median sits $310,000 below the major cities. That gap continues to draw buyers, though rising unemployment presents a greater risk in areas with a narrower employment base.

Regional unit markets also softened across the board, with no region recording a monthly gain. The combined regional median fell 0.9 per cent to $660,000 and is up 2.8 per cent annually, down from 4.9 per cent last month. Regional South Australia continues to lead annual growth at 2.9 per cent to $350,000, though it fell 2.1 per cent over the month. Regional Tasmania and regional Victoria both eased 0.8 per cent to $460,000, with annual growth of 1.8 and 1.6 per cent respectively. Regional Northern Territory was the only market to hold steady over the month, at $330,000, up 1.7 per cent annually. Regional Western Australia recorded the sharpest monthly fall at 2.8 per cent to $490,000, cutting annual growth to 0.8 per cent. Regional Queensland, the most expensive regional unit market at $700,000, fell 1.4 per cent and is now down 1.5 per cent over the year. Regional New South Wales is down 1.0 per cent to $650,000. The regional unit median remains $70,000 below the major cities, a gap that continues to matter for buyers working with reduced borrowing capacity.

New sales listings fell more noticeably in October, while active stock held broadly steady. New listings on a 12 month rolling basis fell 1.4 per cent to 505,036, down from 512,068 in September. It is the fourth consecutive monthly decline since the June high of 513,176, and the largest monthly fall this year, taking new listings to their lowest level since March. Because this is a rolling measure, the fall means noticeably fewer homes were listed this October than in October last year. Active listings were little changed, edging down 0.1 per cent to 601,794. Spring usually brings a clear lift in active stock. In each of the past two years, active listings rose by more than 8,000 between September and October, to 611,404 in 2025 and 614,327 in 2024. This year there was no such increase, leaving active stock 1.6 per cent below a year ago. Rather than a rush of investors or stressed owners selling, the data points to many vendors choosing not to sell into a weaker market. With the cash rate rising again in November, that hesitancy is likely to continue into summer.

New listing authorities fell sharply in October to 7,560, down 11.1 per cent from 8,507 in September. That matches January as the lowest result of the year. October is usually the strongest month for vendor activity, with authorities peaking at 9,807 last October and 9,325 in October 2024. This year’s figure is 22.9 per cent below last October and 18.9 per cent below 2024. September had shown a modest lift, up from 8,077 in August, but it did not carry through, and authorities are now 21.8 per cent below the March peak of 9,665. That leaves 2026 as the first of the past three years in which authorities fell rather than peaked in October. With clearance rates below 40 per cent and the cash rate rising again in November, many owners appear to be holding off rather than testing the market. Authorities typically lead new listings by several weeks, so the October fall points to a tighter flow of fresh stock heading into summer. In each of the past two years, authorities fell to around 7,800 to 7,900 in November before dropping sharply in December.

Open home attendance weakened further through October, with no sign of the seasonal lift typically seen at the height of spring. The four week rolling average fell to 1.9 attendees per home by the end of the month, down from 2.0 in early October and the lowest reading in three years of data. It is now well below the 4.7 recorded in January. The comparison with prior years has widened. At the same point last year, attendance sat at 3.9 per home, having held close to 4.0 through the spring. In 2024 it was 3.2. Current attendance is therefore running at less than half of last year’s level. Attendance has now fallen for most of the year, with the brief stabilisation in late winter giving way to a renewed decline through spring. With the cash rate rising again in November and unemployment now at 4.7 per cent, many prospective buyers are staying on the sidelines until greater certainty returns to the economy and the market. Lower foot traffic means vendors are relying on a smaller pool of genuinely motivated purchasers.

Active bidder numbers fell again through October, easing from 1.8 per auction in early October to 1.5 by the end of the month. That is the lowest level recorded across the past three years and less than half the 3.3 recorded in January. The decline has been steady through the month rather than a single sharp drop, suggesting a further thinning of competition as spring auction volumes have built. Against the same point last year, when active bidders were sitting at around 3.0, depth has halved. It is also well below the roughly 2.6 recorded in late 2024. In practical terms, many auctions are now attracting only one active bidder, which limits competitive tension on the day and shifts negotiating power toward buyers. With borrowing capacity reduced again by the November rate rise, bidder numbers are unlikely to recover in the near term, with many buyers now deferring decisions until conditions settle.

The auction day clearance rate fell sharply through October, dropping to 39.0 per cent by the end of the month. That is down from 46.3 per cent in early October and the lowest result in three years of data. It is the first time this year the rate has fallen below 40 per cent. The decline accelerated over the second half of the month. The contrast with last year is stark. At the same point in 2025, clearance rates were around 74 per cent, a gap

of roughly 35 percentage points, while 2024 sat at around 62 per cent. The current rate also compares with 74.6 per cent in January. With more properties coming to auction during spring but fewer buyers competing for them, a growing share is being passed in or sold after the event. Realistic reserves are becoming increasingly important for vendors choosing to sell under the hammer.

Major city house rents held steady overall in October, with the combined median unchanged at $700 a week and up 6.1 per cent annually, a $40 increase over the year. Underneath that, conditions diverged. Canberra and Brisbane recorded the strongest monthly growth, rising 2.7 per cent to $750 and 2.1 per cent to $715. That lifts their annual growth to 7.1 and 6.7 per cent. Darwin, Perth and Adelaide were unchanged over the month. Darwin continues to lead annual growth at 14.3 per cent to $800, a $100 increase over the year. Perth is up 7.1 per cent to $750. Sydney and Melbourne moved the other way. Sydney fell 2.9 per cent to $825 and Melbourne 3.3 per cent to $580, leaving Melbourne’s house rents flat on a year ago. Hobart eased 0.8 per cent to $625. Nationally, the median house rent held at $670, up 3.1 per cent annually. Population growth and limited new supply continue to underpin rental demand, but rising unemployment is beginning to test how much more tenants can pay in the larger capitals.

Unit rents across the major cities edged higher in October, with the combined median rising 0.7 per cent to $680 a week, up 4.6 per cent annually. Brisbane recorded the strongest monthly growth at 3.1 per cent to $670, a $20 increase. Adelaide rose 1.8 per cent to $580 and Perth 1.4 per cent to $720. Darwin continues to lead annual growth at 14.0 per cent to $650, followed by Perth at 7.5 per cent. Melbourne and Darwin were unchanged over the month, while Sydney fell 2.6 per cent to $750 and Hobart 3.6 per cent to $530. Nationally, the median unit rent sits at $650, up 4.0 per cent over the year. With capital city unit values down 3.3 per cent annually while rents have continued to rise, yields have improved. On median figures, major city units now return a gross yield of around 4.8 per cent, up from about 4.5 per cent a year ago. That strengthens the case for investors, though financing costs remain well above rental returns for most leveraged buyers.

Regional house rents eased slightly in October, with the combined median down 0.8 per cent to $615 a week and up 2.5 per cent annually. Regional Tasmania was the only market to record a monthly rise, up 1.9 per cent to $530 and 8.2 per cent over the year. Regional New South Wales and regional Queensland were unchanged at $640 and $700. The largest falls came in the smaller markets. Regional South Australia fell 5.7 per cent to $465 and regional Northern Territory 5.4 per cent to $700, though both still recorded strong annual growth of 8.1 and 12.9 per cent. Regional Western Australia eased 2.7 per cent to $730 but remains up 12.3 per cent annually. Regional values have held up better than the capitals over the year, so annual rent growth of 2.5 per cent is now trailing annual value growth of 3.5 per cent. As a result, regional yields have not improved in the way capital city yields have. For tenants, the regional median sits $55 below the national figure of $670, continuing to offer some relief from higher capital city rents.

Regional unit rents were unchanged overall in October, with the combined median holding at $550 a week and annual growth lifting to 3.8 per cent, a $20 increase over the year. Regional South Australia recorded the strongest monthly growth at 3.6 per cent to $350 and leads annual growth at 18.6 per cent. Regional Queensland rose 1.5 per cent to $660, while regional Victoria held at $430. Regional Western Australia remains the most expensive regional unit market at $680. Despite a 2.9 per cent monthly fall, it is up 13.3 per cent annually, an $80 increase. Sharp falls were recorded in regional Tasmania, down 6.5 per cent to $430, and regional Northern Territory, down 8.2 per cent to $425. The Northern Territory is now the only regional market in annual decline, down 5.6 per cent. Unlike regional houses, annual rent growth of 3.8 per cent is running ahead of annual value growth of 2.8 per cent. The lower entry price of regional units may appeal to investors, though higher borrowing costs remain a significant barrier for leveraged purchases.

Rental supply tightened further in October, with new listings falling after several months of stability. Active rental listings on a 12 month rolling basis fell 0.4 per cent over the month to 701,747. That is the lowest level since March 2024 and down 2.2 per cent from 717,897 in January. New rental listings fell 0.5 per cent to 651,092, breaking out of the narrow range they had held since July and reaching their lowest level since June 2024. Against a year ago, active stock is down 2.8 per cent from 722,211 and new listings are down 2.3 per cent from

666,515. Over the longer term, active rental listings now sit 17.5 per cent below the 2020 peak of 850,844. The fall in new listings is the first clear sign in some months that fewer investment properties are coming onto the rental market. With the cash rate rising again and the Budget’s negative gearing changes reducing the appeal of new investment, new rental supply is unlikely to pick up quickly. Meanwhile, ongoing population growth continues to underpin demand, which should keep rents supported even as unemployment rises.

The value of unconditional sales fell to $4.5 billion in October, well below the 2026 high of $7.5 billion recorded in March. Outside the seasonal January lull, it is the lowest monthly value since mid-2023. Sales numbers fell 13.0 per cent over the month, from 4,833 in September to 4,206, the lowest result this year outside January. The decline is sharper compared to a year ago, when October recorded 7,529 sales worth around $8 billion. Volumes are down 44.1 per cent, and value is roughly half last year’s level, when spring activity was at its strongest. The rolling 12 month volume eased

to 5,527 from 5,804, its eighth consecutive monthly decline since February, and is 12.6 per cent below the 6,322 recorded last October. Recent months are subject to reporting lags and are typically revised higher as contracts settle. Even so, the trend across both monthly and rolling measures points to a continued slowdown in completed transactions through the peak spring period. With October the first full month after the September rate rise, and a further increase now in place, there is little to suggest activity has found a floor.

METHODOLOGY

Pricing data Price data is sourced from our research partners at Neoval Research Group, providing comprehensive coverage across all major Australian capital cities and regional markets. Price movements are calculated using median values to ensure accurate representation of typical market performance.

three years, providing crucial insight into future supply trends and vendor sentiment before properties enter the active market. Auction and sales data Auction performance metrics are derived from Ray White’s auction database, covering all Ray White auction activities

Why median?

across Australia.

The median provides a reliable measure of the “typical”

Bidder activity: monthly data tracking both registered bidders

market price by identifying the middle value when all sales are

per property and active bidders per auction over the last

arranged in order. Unlike arithmetic averages, which can be

three years, providing insights into buyer engagement levels

distorted by extreme high or low sales, the median represents

and competitive intensity.

the price point where half the properties sold for more and half sold for less. This methodology is particularly valuable when analysing property markets as it reduces the impact of outliers – such as exceptionally expensive waterfront properties or distressed sales – providing a truer reflection

Clearance rates: monthly auction clearance rates calculated as the percentage of properties sold at auction relative to total properties offered, tracked over three years to identify seasonal patterns and market strength indicators.

of what most buyers and sellers experience in the market.

Total unconditional sales: Ray White’s internal sales data

The median effectively captures the centre of the market

tracking the total dollar value of all unconditional property

distribution, making it an ideal measure for tracking genuine

sales completed each month over the last three years. This

price movements over time.

metric provides insight into both transaction volumes and the

Tasmania exception: Due to licensing restrictions, median

impact of price appreciation on overall market value.

data from Neoval is not available for Tasmania. For Tasmanian

Temporal framework

markets, we utilise the Median Sales AVM Value from

All data series are presented on a monthly basis covering the

Cotality, which represents the median (50th percentile)

three-year period from 2023 to 2025, enabling identification

estimated sales value of all properties based on the hedonic

of seasonal patterns, cyclical trends, and year-over-year

imputation method.

comparisons. This timeframe captures the full interest rate

Listing data

cycle from peak rates through to the current cutting cycle,

National property listing volumes are sourced from Domain,

providing context for current market dynamics.

Australia’s leading property portal, providing comprehensive

All data sources represent substantial market coverage but

coverage of new property listings across all markets.

may not capture 100 per cent of market activity. Price data

National listings: presented as monthly counts spanning the last three years (2023-2025) to identify seasonal patterns and year-over-year trends in property supply. Major city and regional listings: current month data is presented with both monthly percentage change (comparison to previous month) and annual percentage change (comparison to same month in previous year) to highlight both short-term fluctuations and longer-term supply trends. Listing authorities: Ray White’s proprietary forward-looking metric representing properties where vendors have signed listing agreements but properties have not yet been marketed. This data is presented as monthly counts over

from Neoval provides broad market representation, while auction and sales data specifically reflects Ray White’s market participation. Regional variations in data coverage may exist, with metropolitan markets generally providing more comprehensive data than smaller regional centres.

R AY W H I T E E C O N O M I C S T E A M

NERIDA CONISBEE

VANESSA RADER

ATOM GO TIAN

Chief Economist

Head of Research

Economist

ANITA VENKATESH

PAOLO SUMULONG

KEVIN WANG

Content Strategy and Production Lead

Data Scientist

Content Production Coordinator

A B O U T R AY W H I T E Ray White stands at the forefront of real estate in Australia and New Zealand. Founded in regional Queensland in 1902 and still owned and led by the White family, the network spans almost 1,000 offices. Powered by a collective of more than 13,500 members, the group achieved over 100,000 property sales last year, exceeding $103 billion in value. Combining regional reach with local market expertise, the group continues to deliver market-leading results. Under Managing Director Dan White’s leadership, operations extend across residential, commercial, and rural property, as well as hotels, marine, property management, and investment advisory. Holding strong momentum and commanding market share, the group called 39,035 auctions across Australia and New Zealand last year, reflecting Ray White’s championing of open, competitive sale processes to elevate outcomes for clients.