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AUSTRALIA’S REGIONAL OUTLOOK

A P U B L I C AT I O N B Y R AY W H I T E

SEPTEMBER 2026

DEFINING

“Regional” IN AUSTRALIA

Regional Australia is more than farmland. Spanning everything beyond our eight capital cities, it encompasses thriving coastal centres, established inland hubs, wine regions, mining towns and agricultural communities. Each region represents a distinct facet of regional life shaped by local industry, geography, and community character. Unlike capital city markets, regional property responds to hyper-local factors like mining cycles, agricultural prosperity, infrastructure investment, and lifestyle-driven migration. Representing onethird of Australia’s population, it’s a significant and increasingly dynamic segment of the national property market.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Contents

Introduction

01 Regional Australia’s affordability frontier Regional Australia's growth over the past decade has come in three phases. Could we be entering a fourth phase?

02 Does being near a capital city still pay off?

Regional markets near capital cities sit in an unusual spot, not quite part of it and not fully separate either. A decade of data shows how differently that proximity has paid off.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

03 Regional luxury is not one market

Regional luxury is often talked about as a single market. In reality, each regional luxury buyer and their motivations couldn't be more unique.

04 Farmland values hold firm as trading dries up Farmland values hit a new record in early 2026, but why are fewer properties being sold?

05 What’s really driving the mining town boom?

A mining town's fortunes used to rise and fall with a single commodity. But for once, this commodity cycle is being overridden by a greater force.

06 Where are the country’s highest rental yields?

07 How EVs are redrawing Australia’s regional road trip The drive holiday has outgrown its grey-nomad reputation, but is the infrastructure to support it keeping up?

Budget changes to negative gearing put fresh focus on regional towns where sub-$300K medians deliver rental yields north of 15 per cent.

08 Is agritourism Australia’s next big travel trend? Agritourism generated $20 billion in visitor spend in 2024 and outpacing the sector around it.

Methodology

Appendix

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Introduction

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Regional markets have rarely behaved less alike than they do now: converging at the affordable end, fragmenting at the premium end, and each increasingly answering to its own local driver rather than to any shared regional story.

There is a habit, when we talk about regional Australia, of treating it as a single market, moving as one. It is an understandable shorthand, but this year it’s more misleading than it has ever been. Regional markets have rarely behaved less alike than they do now: converging at the affordable end, fragmenting at the premium end, and each increasingly answering to its own local driver rather than to any shared regional story. That splintering is playing out against a market of real and shifting scale. Regional Australia accounts for just over 35 per cent of the nation’s home sales, broadly in line with its one-third share of the population. And this share has been climbing since mid-2024. Regional Australia is not just growing in value; it is reclaiming a larger slice of the country’s total homebuying activity. In the third edition of its Regional Outlook, Ray White brings together analysis from our Economics team to examine regional Australia not as a bloc, but the distinct markets beneath it. Ray White Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee examines the markets closest to the capital cities, where proximity alone no longer sets the pace, and the

fragmentation of regional luxury into distinct precincts. Head of Research Vanessa Rader explores the economic foundations beneath these markets: firming farmland values, the outback towns offering the highest rental yields in the country, and a visitor economy being reshaped by drive tourism and agritourism. Economist Atom Go Tian maps the broadening of regional growth toward the affordable interior, and the shifting fortunes of the mining towns, where what a town digs up now tells you less about its house prices than it has in a generation. As Australia’s market-leading real estate group, with an unrivalled presence in regional markets across every state and territory, Ray White is uniquely positioned to provide this analysis. With a network spanning from the capital cities to remote mining towns, from coastal lifestyle destinations to agricultural centres, Ray White offers an unparalleled view of the forces shaping regional Australia. We trust this report will serve as a valuable resource for property owners, investors, developers and industry professionals seeking to understand the evolving dynamics of regional Australia’s property markets in 2026.

DAN WHITE R AY W H I T E G R O U P MANAGING DIRECTOR

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Executive summary

Despite a volatile first half of 2026, regional Australia grew by 12 per cent in the year to June. It is a marked acceleration on the pace of 2024 and 2025, but the more important story is where that growth is now landing. The old winners are becoming laggards, while places long overlooked are quietly moving to the front.

Two forces sit behind the shift, and they are pulling in opposite directions. Growth is running fastest exactly where prices are lowest, and fastest of all in the agricultural and mining regions, where local industry gives cheap housing a working economy to stand on. The clearest sign is in the mining towns: places digging up very different things, from coal to gold to iron ore, have risen into strikingly similar territory, because a national upswing is now lifting regional Australia as a whole. At the premium end, and in the regions closest to the capital cities, the pattern runs the other way. Markets near the capitals remain tied to their nearest city’s cycle, and being close is not enough to set the pace on its own. Regional luxury has fragmented into distinct markets, from tropical getaways to steadier wine and broadacre agricultural country, each answering to its own demand driver rather than to any single “regional” story.

Underpinning all of this is the strength of the regional economies themselves. Farmland values have held firm even as far fewer properties come to market, with strong commodity returns keeping vendors in place. Working towns across the outback offer some of the highest rental yields in the country for cashflow investors. And the visitor economy is deepening, as drive tourism and agritourism draw higher-yielding, longerstaying travellers into regional corridors. There is no single regional story this year. Growth is broadening, and what happens next will depend far more on each market’s own fundamentals than on the label they all share. The word “regional” now hides more than it reveals.

NERIDA CONISBEE R AY W H I T E G R O U P CHIEF ECONOMIST

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

2026 REGIONAL REPORT

Statistical Areas ( SA )

HOW WE DEFINE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS

Statistical Areas are standardised geographic regions defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as part of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS).

Rather than relying on postcodes or council boundaries, which can be inconsistent or change over time, the ABS uses Statistical Areas to divide the country into stable, consistently-sized regions built up from small population blocks. This means data can be compared fairly across different parts of the country and tracked reliably over time. The Statistical Areas form a nested hierarchy, where smaller areas combine to build larger ones representing communities that interact socially and economically. This report uses four levels:

SA2

An SA2 typically covers a suburb or a small group of neighbouring suburbs (roughly 3,000 to 25,000 people).

SA3

Groups of neighbouring SA2s, usually reflecting a recognisable region such as a cluster of suburbs, a large town, or a section of a major city (roughly 30,000 to 130,000 people).

SA4

Broad regions that align with labour markets. In cities these cover major metropolitan zones, and in regional areas they span large geographic areas (generally 100,000 people or more).

SUA

Urban areas of 10,000+ people, defined by builtup extent rather than administrative boundaries (can span multiple LGAs or states). Smaller than GCCs, representing the actual urban footprint rather than the wider administrative area.

Property price indices in this report are produced by Neoval at these Statistical Area (SA) levels, which allows housing trends to be compared consistently across the country.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

01.

Regional Australia’s affordability frontier AT O M G O T I A N R AY W H I T E G R O U P ECONOMIST

Regional Australia’s growth over the past decade is best understood in three phases.

The first began before the pandemic, when buyers filled the satellite cities within commuting reach of Sydney and Melbourne. From 2016 to 2019 those towns captured most of the growth while the rest of regional Australia sat still, rising three to five per cent a year. Regional Australia’s share of national home sales stayed in a narrow band between 35 and 36 per cent through most of this period, consistent with a market where growth was narrow and contained. The pandemic and flexible work opened the second phase. Buyers who could choose lifestyle over proximity moved to the coast and the country. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast became the poster children of this phase, but the whole of regional Australia benefitted, with annual growth peaking near 28 per cent. That wave showed up just as clearly in the sales data. Regional

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Australia’s share of national home sales climbed to 38.9 per cent in May 2021, its highest level in over a decade. As premium lifestyle prices climbed toward capital-city levels, buyers moved again, this time toward work. From 2023 to 2025 a third wave ran through Queensland and Western Australia’s mining and resource regions, adding another six to eight per cent. But this time regional Australia’s share of national home sales fell to a low of 34.3 per cent in mid-2024. The mining towns were growing in price, but on relatively thin volumes concentrated in a handful of regions, not enough to move the national aggregate.

Over the past year, regional price growth has picked up again to around 12 per cent, while sales have returned to 35.1 per cent. But the first half of 2026 has been volatile, marked by global uncertainty, persistent inflation, and major changes to investment policy.

COULD WE BE ENTERING A FOURTH PHASE? If we are, it’s one where the old winners have become the laggards, and a genuine broadening is underway as buyers hunt for value in an increasingly expensive market.

R EG IO NAL AUS T RALI A 10 YE A R PRICE GROWTH 12 month rolling median house and unit price growth

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Mapping every regional statistical area level 2 (SA2) by its median house price and its growth over the past year makes the shift plain. The fastest growth is now being captured by the more affordable markets of the west and the interior, while the expensive coast has fallen behind. The lifestyle markets that led the earlier phases are now the slowest. The satellite cities and the premium coastal destinations that once set the pace, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast among them, have dropped toward the bottom of the range.

Five years of lifestyle migration did what strong demand always does. It lifted coastal prices to a point that increasingly sits beyond the reach of the next buyer in line.

GERALDTON KALGOORLIE-BOULDER

Ranking regional Australia’s SA4 areas by growth over the past year makes the concentration more distinct. The fastestgrowing regions are almost entirely in the west and the interior. Western Australia’s Outback South and Wheat Belt, South Australia’s Outback, and a run of inland Queensland regions from the Darling Downs to Central Queensland now sit at the top. Two forces sit behind this, and they are worth keeping apart. Affordability explains the shape. Growth is running fastest exactly where prices are lowest, which is why the ranking sorts so cleanly by price. The resource economy explains which of those affordable regions lead. The areas at the very top are agricultural and mining country, where local industry gives cheap housing a working economy to stand on. Some of that strength is recovery from the downturn of the late 2010s rather than fresh demand, a cycle we examine in detail elsewhere in this report. Even within New South Wales the pattern holds. The state’s strongest region is Far West and Orana, inland, while its coast fills the bottom of the table.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

ESPERANCE

GERALDTON

KALGOORLIE-BOULDER

Median house price

$636K

$511K

1 year growth

+19.9%

+19.0% ESPERANCE Median house price

$669K 1 year growth

+17.1%

EMERALD

ROCKHAMPTON

Median house price

$555K

$655K

1 year growth

+17.4%

+16.9%

GLADSTONE Median house price

$652K

QLD

1 year growth

ROCKHAMPTON EMERALD

+16.8%

GLADSTONE

KINGAROY KINGAROY

Median house price

$596K 1 year growth

+16.2% PORT AUGUSTA

NSW WHYALLA

PORT PIRIE

One year does not make an era, and the months ahead will test whether this is a genuine fourth phase.

VIC

PORT AUGUSTA

Either way, the task now is less about forecasting the next hotspot than about reading the map honestly.

Median house price

$356K

TA S

1 year growth

+20.5% WHYALLA

PORT PIRIE

Median house price

$375K

$352K

1 year growth

+19.6%

+19.5%

Victoria is excluded from analysis due to restrictions with data access.

Growth is broadening, the old order is loosening, and the places that were long overlooked are quietly moving to the front. SOURCE: NEOVAL

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

02.

Does being near a capital city still pay off? NERIDA CONISBEE R AY W H I T E G R O U P CHIEF ECONOMIST

Regional housing markets close to capital cities occupy an unusual position. They are not fully part of the capital city market, but they are not completely separate from it either. Many offer a different lifestyle, more space or better affordability, while still remaining close enough to a major employment base. Over the past decade, that combination has shaped how these markets have performed, and how closely they have moved with the cities nearby. For this analysis, we compared median house price trends across selected regional markets near major capitals with the performance of the nearest capital city. The analysis covers the period from June 2016 to March 2026, using a simple average across selected LGAs for each regional group. For Sydney, this included the Central Coast, Wollongong and the Southern Highlands. For Melbourne, it included Geelong, Mornington Peninsula and Surf Coast. For Brisbane, it included the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. For Adelaide, it included Adelaide Hills, Barossa and Fleurieu Peninsula. For Perth, it included Mandurah, Busselton and Margaret River.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

The clearest pattern is that regional markets near capitals are still shaped by the capital city cycle. When the nearest capital has been strong, nearby regional markets have generally benefitted; when conditions have softened, that weakness has also flowed through. This is particularly evident around Sydney and Melbourne, where nearby regional markets have followed the broader direction of their capital city, even where they have outperformed over the longer term. The size of the gap, however, varies significantly. On average, regional markets near Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth have outperformed

their nearest capital city since 2016. The largest differences are around Melbourne and Perth. Melbourne-linked regional markets rose by around 86 per cent, compared with 42 per cent for Melbourne, while Perth-linked regional markets rose by around 133 per cent, compared with 103 per cent for Perth. Brisbane and Adelaide show a different pattern, with nearby regional markets moving much more closely in line with the capital city. In South East Queensland, this reflects the fact that Brisbane itself has been one of the strongestperforming capital city markets.

REG I ONA L MA RKE TS NE A R CA PITA L HAVE M OSTLY OUTPACE D THE CITIE S Median house price growth from June 2016 to March 2026 Capital City

Regional Markets

SYDNEY

71% 96%

MELBOURNE

42% 86%

BRISBANE

134% 138%

PERTH

103% 133%

ADELAIDE

126% 131%

Regional figures are the average of selected nearby regional LGAs

SOURCE: COTALITY

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Melbourne-linked regional markets rose by around 86 per cent, compared with 42 per cent for Melbourne, while Perth-linked regional markets rose by around 133 per cent, compared with 103 per cent for Perth. The strongest regional markets tend to have another driver beyond proximity. In Queensland, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have benefitted from the same forces supporting Brisbane population growth, interstate migration and lifestyle demand which has kept their growth broadly in line with an already very strong capital city. In Western Australia, the pattern is more pronounced: Mandurah has combined relative affordability with access to Perth, while Busselton and Margaret River have benefitted from the state’s broader economic strength as well as their lifestyle appeal. As a result, Perthlinked regional markets have pulled further ahead of their capital than the Queensland markets have. Melbourne-linked_regional markets tell a different story. Geelong, Mornington Peni nsula and Surf Coast have all outperformed Melbourne over the longer term, but the scale of growth has been far weaker than in Queensland, Western Australia or Adelaide-linked markets. This suggests proximity to a capital city helps, but it is not enough on its own. The strength of the underlying capital city still matters.

has softened more noticeably from its peak. This points to differences even within the same capital city catchment. Larger, more established regional city markets appear to be holding up better than some of the more discretionary lifestyle markets. The outlook now depends heavily on the nearest capital city cycle. Sydney and Melbourne are slowing more quickly than Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, and that is likely to have the greatest impact on their nearby regional markets. Areas such as the Central Coast, Wollongong, Geelong, Mornington Peninsula and Surf Coast remain exposed to buyer confidence and affordability conditions in their nearest capital. If Sydney and Melbourne soften further, these regional markets are likely to feel it. By contrast, regional markets linked to Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth should hold up better while those capitals remain stronger. The Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Mandurah, Busselton and Margaret River are also supported by lifestyle and population growth drivers that extend beyond simple proximity to a capital city.

Sydney’s nearby regional markets sit somewhere in the middle. The Central Coast and Wollongong have both performed strongly and are now at new highs. The Southern Highlands has also delivered strong long-term growth, but

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

03.

Regional luxury is not one market NERIDA CONISBEE R AY W H I T E G R O U P CHIEF ECONOMIST

Australia’s regional luxury housing market is often discussed as though it were a single market. In reality, prestige markets are driven by very different buyer groups and demand drivers. Some are influenced by tourism, others by migration, lifestyle preferences or agricultural wealth. Over the past decade, these different forces have produced very different outcomes.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Most notably, tropical resort markets have emerged as the strongest-performing luxury precinct, while coastal commuter markets have recently overtaken Australia’s traditional temperate coastal prestige markets.

To better understand these differences, we developed a regional luxury precinct classification and analysed house values across a selection of Australia’s best-known prestige regional markets. Rather than relying on median house prices or individual sales, this analysis uses the 90th percentile house automated valuation model (AVM) for each SA2, providing a consistent measure of the premium end of each market. We then calculated a three-month rolling average and averaged the series across each precinct to produce representative trends over time. Unlike a sales-weighted index, this approach gives each selected market equal weight, allowing us to compare how different types of luxury markets have evolved regardless of transaction volumes.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

REGIONAL LUXURY 3-month rolling average of 90th percentile house AVM across selected prestige markets

Tropical resort luxury

$2.8M

$2.7M 2.6M

2.4M

2.2M

Coastal commuter prestige

1.8M

Rural lifestyle prestige

$1.93M

$1.75M Temperate coastal prestige

1.6M

$1.73M 1.4M

Alpine luxury $1.33M 1.2M

Wine region prestige $1.11M

Broadacre agricultural prestige $1.02M

800K

600K

2018

2020

2022

Based on selected SA2/Neoval areas grouped by lifestyle category. Lines show the simple average of each market’s 3-month rolling 90th percentile house AVM, not a sales-weighted index. Some included markets sit within Greater Capital City GCCSAs and are treated as peri-regional prestige markets.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

2024

2026

SOURCE: COTALITY

Defining the luxury precincts

TROPICAL RESORT LUXURY (6 SA2S) captures resort-focused markets including Port Douglas, Palm Cove, Hamilton Island, Broome, Noosa Heads, Sunshine Beach, Mermaid Beach–Broadbeach, Broadbeach Waters, Main Beach and Paradise Point–Hollywell, where demand is more closely linked to tourism and discretionary spending. COASTAL COMMUTER PRESTIGE (8 SA2S) includes premium coastal markets within commuting distance of capital cities, including Mount Martha, Mornington, Barwon Heads, Torquay and Kiama. These markets combine coastal amenity with access to metropolitan employment and wealth. RURAL LIFESTYLE PRESTIGE (11 SA2S) includes markets such as Bowral–Mittagong, Moss Vale, Daylesford, Macedon and Tamborine Mountain, where buyers are typically seeking larger homes, acreage and lifestyle properties.

TEMPERATE COASTAL PRESTIGE (9 SA2S) includes established premium coastal communities such as Byron Bay, Portsea and Lorne–Anglesea. These are mature prestige markets characterised by constrained supply, strong owneroccupier demand and enduring lifestyle appeal. ALPINE LUXURY (4 SA2S) includes Thredbo–Perisher, Jindabyne, Falls Creek and Mount Buller.

WINE REGION PRESTIGE (7 SA2S) incorporates vineyard regions including Tanunda, McLaren Vale, Healesville– Yarra Glen and Pokolbin, combining prestige housing with renowned wine-producing districts.

BROADACRE AGRICULTURAL PRESTIGE (5 SA2S) comprises larger rural holdings in markets such as Scone, Orange, Mudgee and Mansfield.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Tropical resort markets have pulled away

Coastal prestige remains remarkably resilient

The standout performer over the past decade has been the tropical resort luxury precinct. Premium values accelerated sharply during the pandemic as affluent buyers sought resort-style properties and holiday homes. While the segment has experienced more volatility than most, it has continued to establish new highs and now sits comfortably above every other luxury precinct. The strong performance reflects the exceptional growth recorded across many of Australia’s premium resort markets over the past decade, particularly those concentrated along Queensland’s coastline. While these markets have experienced greater volatility than some other luxury precincts, they have consistently established new highs and now sit comfortably above every other regional luxury category.

Temperate coastal and coastal commuter prestige markets have also delivered exceptional long-term performance. Both experienced strong price acceleration through 2020 and 2021 as remote work, wealth accumulation and changing lifestyle preferences increased demand for premium coastal housing. Although prices moderated as interest rates rose, neither segment experienced a significant reversal. Temperate coastal and coastal commuter markets tracked each other closely for much of the past decade. More recently, however, coastal commuter markets have edged ahead. The shift suggests buyers continue to place a premium on locations that combine a coastal lifestyle with convenient access to major cities, reinforcing the appeal of markets that offer both lifestyle and connectivity.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Alpine markets remain the most cyclical

Lifestyle migration has had a lasting impact

No luxury precinct illustrates the pandemic cycle more clearly than alpine markets. Values climbed rapidly through 2021 and early 2022 before correcting more sharply than any other precinct as borrowing costs increased and discretionary spending softened. Although values remain well above pre-pandemic levels, alpine markets continue to display considerably more volatility than other luxury categories. The combination of relatively small markets, limited transaction volumes and discretionary demand makes alpine precincts particularly sensitive to changes in buyer confidence.

Rural lifestyle prestige markets also experienced significant growth during the pandemic as flexible working arrangements encouraged buyers to prioritise space and lifestyle. While growth has moderated, these markets have retained most of their gains and continue to perform strongly. Wine region prestige markets have followed a different trajectory. Rather than experiencing a sharp pandemic-driven surge, they have delivered steadier appreciation over the decade with relatively modest corrections. These markets appear to behave more like established prestige markets than high-growth lifestyle markets. Broadacre agricultural prestige has been steadier again. Growth has been consistent but less pronounced than in the lifestyle-focused precincts, reflecting the influence of agricultural land values alongside residential demand.

The regional luxury precinct classification shows there is no single luxury market.

Tropical resort markets have emerged as the strongest performers over the past decade, coastal commuter markets have quietly overtaken traditional temperate coastal prestige, alpine markets have exhibited the greatest volatility, while wine regions and broadacre markets have delivered steadier, more measured growth. Understanding these different market cycles is becoming increasingly important. Future performance is likely to depend less on whether a market is simply “regional” and more on the underlying demand drivers that define each luxury precinct.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

04.

Farmland values hold firm as trading dries up VA N E S S A R A D E R R AY W H I T E G R O U P HEAD OF RESEARCH

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Australian farmland values continued their upward trajectory in the March quarter of 2026, with the national median price reaching $11,032 per hectare, consolidating the record levels established across the full year of 2025. The more revealing number, however, sits on the volume side of the ledger.

The state-level picture adds important texture. Victoria recorded the largest price movement of any state, up nearly 20 per cent year-on-year to $16,268 per hectare, against a sharp fall in transaction volumes. Queensland lifted 14 per cent to $11,032 per hectare with volumes down 45 per cent. New South Wales rose seven per cent to just over $11,000 per hectare, a solid result given the seasonal pressures weighing on that state heading into winter. South Australia was the most stable market in the quarter, with prices essentially flat at $10,415 per hectare and volumes barely changed. Western Australia continued the longer-run upward trajectory that has made it the standout performer of the past five years, reaching $7,650 per hectare for the quarter on the back of strong production fundamentals in its cropping regions.

Just 1,055 transactions were recorded nationally in the quarter, down 35 per cent on the same period a year earlier and the lowest quarterly count in recent memory.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

FI RS T Q UARTE R VOLUME S DOWN, B U T VALUES SHOW A PPRECIATION Transaction activity and median farmland values by Q1

FA R M S S O L D

P R I C E P E R H E C TA R E

Q1 2025

Q1 2026

Q1 2025

Q1 2026

NATIONAL

1,615

1,055

NATIONAL

10,775

NSW

540

357

NSW

10,267

QLD

397

217

QLD

9,651

205

190

10,475

VIC

259

148

VIC

13,590

170

140

6,760

11,032 11,011

11,032 10,415

16,268 7,650

SOURCE: DIGITAL AGRICULTURAL SERVICES (2026)

The commodity environment is central to understanding why so few vendors are coming to market. Queensland’s cattle producers entered 2026 with the National Young Cattle Indicator sitting close to 30 per cent above year-ago levels and tracking at the 9th decile of its 10-year range. When a grazing enterprise is generating returns at that level, the case for selling the land underpinning it is difficult to make. The same logic applies across Victoria and South Australia, where sheep and wool producers are watching the National Trade Lamb Indicator at the 10th decile and the wool market’s Eastern Market Indicator at its highest point since March 2019. Across both livestock sectors, strong returns are translating directly into vendor confidence and the supply restraint that confidence produces.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Input cost pressures represent the more complicated dimension of the current environment. The June 2026 ABARES Agricultural Commodities Report documents the challenge in detail. The Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven domestic diesel prices more than 30 per cent above pre-conflict levels, with urea up more than 80 per cent. ABARES forecasts average broadacre farm business profit to fall 70 per cent in 2026/27 to around $65,000 per farm, with cropping operations facing the steepest decline, from $810,000 to $280,000. Beef farms are forecast to average $11,000 for the year. The ABARES state-level forecasts reveal significant divergence: New South Wales farm businesses are forecast to average a loss of $16,000 in 2026/27 against a $161,000 profit the prior year, while Western Australian farms are forecast to average $151,000 despite a substantial step down from $515,000 in 2025/26. Those profit forecasts matter for the land market. Compressed margins have historically discouraged rather than encouraged selling, reinforcing the supply constraints already evident in the transaction data. A landholder facing a difficult operating year has less reason to accept whatever the market offers, not more.

Where the picture is genuinely more complex is across northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, where below-average soil moisture and some of the lowest autumn rainfall on record in parts of both states are expected to see some growers scale back their cropping programs this season rather than plant into high input costs and uncertain conditions. ABARES forecasts national winter crop production to fall 21 per cent, with wheat area down 26 per cent. The consequence, however, is a tighter domestic grain market. Record feedlot utilisation across New South Wales and Queensland is already supporting local demand, and the wheat-barley price spread is at its narrowest point since 2019, which provides its own form of support for cropping land values over the medium term. The structural conditions underpinning Australian farmland values remain intact. Vendor confidence is high, supply is tight, and the commodity markets that drive landholder decisionmaking are, with some regional exceptions, working in vendors’ favour. How the market moves through the second half of 2026 will depend on seasonal outcomes and the durability of current livestock prices, but the foundations supporting values through this cycle show no sign of giving way.

ABARES forecasts average broadacre farm business profit to fall 70 per cent in 2026/27 to around $65,000 per farm, with cropping operations facing the steepest decline, from $810,000 to $280,000.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

05.

What’s really driving the mining town boom? AT O M G O T I A N R AY W H I T E G R O U P ECONOMIST

For most of the past two decades, a mining town’s fortunes rose and fell with the price of whatever it pulled out of the ground. When the commodity boomed, house prices boomed. When it busted, they fell, often hard. Between 2012 and 2017, iron ore towns in the Pilbara lost more than half their value as the price collapsed.

What is happening now is different, and gentler. Mining regions are being lifted by two forces at once. Resource prices are elevated across the board, from iron ore to copper to gold, which supports the local economies that depend on them. And a national upswing since 2020 has carried regional Australia broadly higher. For once, the commodity cycle and the national cycle are pushing the same way, and mining towns are catching both. The result is visible in how uniformly they have risen. Ten towns digging up very different things have all moved higher, most of them converging into a band of 90 to 135 per cent growth. Their commodities have behaved nothing alike over these years, coal spiked and crashed, lead barely moved, gold boomed, yet the towns have ended up in strikingly similar territory. The single commodity no longer tells the whole story, because a second, national force is now working alongside it.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

DI FFERENT MI NERA LS, SIMILA R DE STINATIONS Median house price growth since 2016, by mining region

Muswellbrook 120

Mackay Karratha Singleton Emerald Whyalla

100

Kalgoorlie Boulder Port Hedland

Mount Isa

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

SOURCE:NEOVAL

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Coal shows this most vividly. Australian thermal coal rose roughly eightfold from its 2016 low, peaking in late 2022 as the global energy crisis pushed prices to extraordinary levels, before falling most of the way back over the following year, though it settled well above where it began. It was one of the sharpest commodity round trips in recent memory. House prices in the Hunter Valley towns of Muswellbrook

and Singleton grew alongside it, but along a far steadier path. Rather than spiking with coal and easing back, they rose in a smooth line through the whole period, up around 100 to 125 per cent. Both the commodity and the towns ended higher, but the towns got there gradually, without tracking the violent swings in the price beneath them. The same pattern holds in the Queensland coal centres of Emerald and Mackay.

COAL A ND ITS REGION Commodity price and median house price growth, indexed to January 2016

700

600

500

400

300

200 COAL ($/MT) 100

Muswellbrook Singleton

0 2017

2021

2022

2023

2026

SOURCE: WORLD BANK, NEOVAL

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

I RON O RE A ND ITS REGION Commodity price and median house price growth, indexed to January 2016

400

350

300

250

200

IRON ORE ($/dmtu)

150

Karratha Whyalla

100 Port Hedland 0 2017

2021

2022

2026

SOURCE: WORLD BANK, NEOVAL

Iron ore tells a steadier version of the same story. The price has been high and volatile, swinging between surges and pullbacks, while the Pilbara towns of Port Hedland and Karratha, along with Whyalla in South Australia, have risen in a smooth, unbroken line. Both climbed over the period, but the towns did so steadily while the commodity swung. Here the two forces are easiest to see working together: a strong iron ore price supporting the local economy, and the national upswing lifting prices as it has everywhere else. Port Hedland sits at the lower end of the pack, but for a reason that fits the longer history. It began this period still recovering from the 2012 to 2017 crash, climbing out of a deeper hole than most, so its rise starts from further back rather than signalling any weakness now.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

A tripling gold price did not make a tripling town.

Gold makes the point through magnitude rather than shape. The gold price roughly tripled over the period, one of the strongest commodity performances of all. Kalgoorlie, Australia’s enduring gold city, rose too, and firm gold prices clearly helped. But it climbed a steady, modest line of around 70 per cent, nothing resembling the metal’s ascent. The town grew alongside gold without matching its scale, its housing market moving more in step with the national market than with the price of the metal beneath it. A tripling gold price did not make a tripling town.

G OLD A ND K A LGOORLIE Commodity price and median house price growth, indexed to January 2016

350

300 GOLD ($/TROY OZ)

250

200

150

100 Kalgoorlie Boulder 50

0 2017

2026

SOURCE: WORLD BANK, NEOVAL

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Only one town still behaves the old way, and it's the exception that proves the rule. Copper has been among the strongest performers of the period, climbing steadily toward record levels. Yet Mount Isa, the copper town, has barely moved, up only around 13 per cent while the rest of the country surged. A high copper price has not been enough.

Mount Isa is remote, expensive to reach, and built around a single industry now facing a well-flagged contraction, and it's the town the national wave reached least. Where the other towns had a second engine to carry them, Mount Isa has been left leaning on its commodity alone, and that is no longer enough to move a housing market by itself.

CO PPE R A ND M OUNT ISA Commodity price and median house price growth, indexed to January 2016

COPPER ($/MT)

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20

Mount Isa

0 2017

2026 SOURCE: WORLD BANK, NEOVAL

Taken together, the pattern points to a shift in what drives these markets. The commodity still matters. A firm resource price supports local jobs and incomes, and it's part of why these towns have grown so consistently. But the mineral no longer sets a town apart. A coal town, an iron ore town and a gold town have all arrived in much the same place, which they could not have done if their commodities were still in charge. The stronger force now is the national one, lifting regional Australia as a whole and reaching even the towns that were once a law unto themselves.

That leaves an open question worth watching. These towns are enjoying two tailwinds at once, a rare alignment. If the national upswing eases, the real test will be whether the old commodity sensitivity reasserts itself, or whether these markets have matured into something steadier. For now, at least, what a town digs up tells you less about its house prices than it has in a generation.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

06.

Where are the country's highest rental yields? VA N E S S A R A D E R R AY W H I T E G R O U P HEAD OF RESEARCH

The Federal Budget has shifted the settings for property investors. From 1 July 2027, negative gearing will be restricted to new builds and the capital gains tax discount replaced with cost-base indexation for assets held beyond 12 months. The intent is to push investor demand toward new housing supply. In many parts of regional Australia, that supply simply does not exist, and the established market remains the only market.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

That makes the case for cash flow investing more relevant than it has been in years. A closer look at regional suburbs across Queensland, New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia reveals markets where median house prices sit well below $300,000 and rental yields range from 15 per cent to beyond 20 per cent. These are not lifestyle markets or growth plays. They are towns with working economies, genuine rental demand and entry points that can generate positive returns from day one.

Queensland’s central-west pastoral belt dominates the top of the list. Aramac ($120,000, 33.9 per cent) leads outright, a small service centre for the surrounding grazing country. Alpha ($141,000, 20.1 per cent) and Augathella ($158,000, 19.4 per cent) anchor similar agricultural districts with tightly held rental stock. Hughenden ($230,000, 18.9 per cent) serves as a supply centre for cattle stations further north. Nanum ($512,000, 18.7 per cent), tied to the Weipa bauxite operation on Cape York, breaks the pattern: mining company housing lifts the median well above the rest of the list, but the yield still holds on steady workforce demand. Julia Creek ($216,000, 18.4 per cent) blends grazing and mining-adjacent activity. Cunnamulla ($139,000, 16.6 per cent) anchors south-west Queensland’s Paroo Shire through local government, health and agriculture.

Median house prices sit well below $300,000 and rental yields range from 15 per cent to beyond 20 per cent. These are not lifestyle markets or growth plays.

TO P 1 0 R EG I O NAL S UB URB S BA SE D ON RE NTA L YIE LDS SUBURB Aramac QLD | House

Mount Magnet WA | House

Menindee NSW | House

Alpha QLD | House

Augathella QLD | House

Hughenden QLD | House

Walgett NSW | House

Nanum QLD | House

Andamooka SA | House

Julia Creek QLD | House

MEDIAN PRICE

MEDIAN RENTAL YIELD 33.9%

$120k $49k $62k

31.3% 23.8%

$141k

20.1%

$158k

19.4%

$230k

18.9%

$101k

18.8%

$512k

18.7%

$68k

18.7%

$216k

18.4%

SOURCE: WORLD BANK, NEOVAL

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

The case is not that these markets will be worth significantly more in a decade. It is that they can generate meaningful cash income from the day of purchase

In far western New South Wales, Menindee ($62,000, 23.8 per cent) sits on the Darling River, its economy built on government, conservation and remote community services. Walgett ($101,000, 18.8 per cent) follows a similar pastoral and government-driven profile. Bourke ($161,000, 16.3 per cent) is the largest of the three, a genuine regional hub with health, education, police and a long history in wool and cotton. Western Australia’s mining corridor delivers the sharpest yields outside Queensland’s pastoral belt. Mount Magnet ($49,000, 31.3 per cent) leads the state, its low median reflecting market scale rather than weak occupancy. Meekatharra ($137,000, 17.8 per cent) sits in the same Murchison goldfields with a broader housing stock. Southern Cross ($131,000, 16.0 per cent) benefits from sitting on the Perth–Kalgoorlie highway and rail corridor. South Hedland ($317,000, 15.8 per cent, units) serves Port Hedland’s Pilbara iron ore workforce, both FIFO and resident.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

In South Australia, Andamooka ($68,000, 18.7 per cent) and Coober Pedy ($86,000, 16.4 per cent) are opal mining towns with tightly held stock and steady demand from workers, tourism operators and service providers. What connects these markets is not glamour or conventional growth potential. It is function. Each of these towns exists because something happens there, whether mining, pastoralism, government services or resource management, and that activity creates a rental population with few other housing options. Vacancy in these markets is often structurally low, not because of population growth, but because housing supply is limited and the workforce that needs accommodation is persistent.

Investors considering these markets need to go in with clear expectations. Income returns are the story here, not capital growth. Many of these towns have carried similar median prices for years, and there is little reason to expect that to change materially. The population is stable at best, and the economic base, while reliable, is not expanding. The case is not that these markets will be worth significantly more in a decade. It is that they can generate meaningful cash income from the day of purchase, in a policy environment that is making it increasingly difficult to find closer to the major centres. For investors who have built their strategy around tax concessions, the budget changes require a genuine recalculation. The ability to offset losses against other income has been a central

pillar of residential property investment in Australia for decades, and restricting that to new builds fundamentally changes the arithmetic on established property in markets where new development is rare or non-existent. In these towns, there is no new build alternative. The choice is between buying established or not buying at all. That constraint cuts both ways. It limits the policy’s ability to redirect capital into new supply in these locations, but it also means that investors who do buy established property here are acquiring in markets where competition from new stock is unlikely to emerge. For those focused on yield from day one, regional Australia was already making its own case. The budget has simply made it louder.

In these towns, there is no new build alternative. The choice is between buying established or not buying at all.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

07.

How EVs are redrawing Australia’s regional road trip

VA N E S S A R A D E R R AY W H I T E G R O U P HEAD OF RESEARCH

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Australia’s regional tourism economy is being reshaped by a traveller with a full tank, a deliberate itinerary and a preference for staying longer. The drive holiday market is not a new phenomenon, but the data emerging from 2025 tells a more considered story than the grey nomad stereotype that has historically defined it. What was once characterised as a budgetconscious domestic fallback has matured into one of the visitor economy’s most structurally dependable contributors, and the infrastructure conversation around it is changing fast.

Australia recorded 113 million domestic overnight trips in 2025, generating $106.7 billion in spend. Almost half of that, 49 per cent, landed in regional Australia, with holiday trips alone accounting for over $28 billion or 54 per cent of all regional overnight spend. Driving underpins a substantial share of these movements. In Queensland, the drive holiday market generated $9 billion in overnight visitor expenditure in 2023 and is projected to reach $12 billion by 2032, representing 27 per cent of the state’s total visitor economy target. The national picture follows a similar trajectory.

The composition of who is driving has broadened considerably. Multidestination trips, which include road trips of two to seven nights and journeys of eight nights or more, are the growth priority for state tourism bodies. Travellers in Queensland average $2,323 per trip, nearly 2.7 times more than single-stop visitors. These are not incidental visitors passing through; they are high-engagement travellers choosing regional destinations deliberately and spending accordingly.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

As that gap closes over the next several years, the catchment of viable drive holiday destinations will widen

The caravan and camping segment, which sits at the heart of drive tourism accommodation, reached a record 17.3 million trips nationally in 2025. Almost one in every seven domestic overnight trips was a caravan or camping trip, with total spend reaching $12.6 billion, well above pre-COVID levels of $10.2 billion. Caravan and campervan registrations hit 938,000, also a record, signalling sustained household investment in the infrastructure of selfdirected regional travel. Critically, 87 per cent of caravan and camping nights are spent in regional Australia, contributing $8.6 billion to regional economies. In regional areas, caravan and camping trips account for one in every three domestic overnight holiday trips and one in every four dollars spent on holidays.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

This performance has not gone unnoticed at a policy level. The federal government’s THRIVE 2030 Action Plan released this year, retains a regional expenditure sub-target of $95 billion by 2030 and commits to analysing the factors underpinning greater domestic visitation to regional destinations. Revive Live and Festivals Australia event funding, $18.5 million directed to Central Australia and the Great Barrier Reef, and the Tourism Australia Come and Say G’day campaign are all calibrated to draw visitors into regional corridors. Queensland’s dedicated Drive Tourism Marketing Strategy 2032 provides a clear state-level model for how investment in hero routes and experience clusters can generate measurable dispersal.

One of the more consequential shifts reshaping the drive holiday landscape is the accelerating rollout of electric vehicle charging infrastructure along regional corridors. EV registrations in Australia grew strongly through 2024 and continues today and with that growth has come a direct challenge for the drive tourism sector: range anxiety on long regional trips has consistently ranked as the primary barrier to EV adoption for holiday travel. The federal government’s National Electric Vehicle Strategy committed to fast-charging infrastructure every 150 kilometres along major highway corridors, and networks including NRMA and Chargefox have extended rapid chargers across key interstate and coastal tourist

routes. Queensland has specifically prioritised tourist drive routes in its own EV charging network program, reflecting a clear understanding that infrastructure and visitor demand are inseparable. The picture remains uneven, however. Coastal highway corridors are increasingly well-served, while inland and outback routes still carry meaningful gaps that limit the EV drive holiday market to a narrower geography than the petrol or diesel equivalent. As that gap closes over the next several years, the catchment of viable drive holiday destinations will widen, with regional centres and experiences that were previously too remote for EV travellers coming within practical range for an expanding share of the touring market.

FO R EC A S T FOR 2030 DAY TRI PS

313 M

DAY TRIP S P END 12%*

OVE RNI G HT TRI PS

123 M

$57 B

24%*

OV E RN I G HT T R I P S P END 9%*

$130 B

21%*

*Between 2025 and 2030

The domestic outlook for 2026 and beyond remains constructive. TRA forecasts domestic day trips to grow to over 313 million and overnight spend activity up 21 per cent to $130 billion by 2030. Fuel price sensitivity and extreme weather events are the primary risks flagged for drive-reliant markets, both real and worth monitoring. But for regional destinations with strong natural assets, proximity to established or emerging drive corridors and genuine investment in experience infrastructure, the EV transition is not a threat to the drive holiday market. It is the next chapter of it.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

08.

Is agritourism Australia’s next big travel trend? VA N E S S A R A D E R R AY W H I T E G R O U P HEAD OF RESEARCH

What is agritourism? Agritourism is tourism built around working farms and rural producers. Rather than just passing through, visitors come to immerse themselves in the produce and pace of an agricultural region. Imagine farm stays, on-site tastings and paddock-to-plate dining.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Australia’s regions are experiencing a structural shift in how domestic and international visitors choose to spend their leisure time and critically, their money. The numbers tell the story clearly. In 2024, trips involving agritourism activities generated $20.3 billion in visitor spend, representing 14 per cent of total national tourism expenditure, growing five per cent year-on-year and outpacing the broader sector. What was once considered a niche segment of the visitor economy has matured into one of its most reliable growth contributors.

Visitors on these trips spend significantly more than average. Domestic agritourism travellers averaged $863 per trip against $462 for domestic travellers broadly, while international visitors engaged with agritourism spent $3,894 per trip compared to a $2,044 average across all international arrivals. These are high-yield, high-intent visitors choosing regional Australia deliberately, and the age spread engaging with agritourism is broader than many assume. Travellers aged 25 to 34 account for the highest proportion of trips, while those aged 55 to 64 record the highest average spend per trip at $1,281, reflecting a sector with genuine cross-demographic appeal.

Three in four agritourism trips visited regional Australia in 2024, compared to three in five trips across all tourism categories.

AVERAG E S PEND PER TRIP Agritourism vs overall travellers

I N TE RN ATI O N A L TRAV E L L E RS

$3,894

Agritourism $2,044

Overall

DO M E STI C TRAV E L L E RS

$863

Agritourism Overall

$462 SOURCE: TOURISM RESEARCH AUSTRALIA, 2024

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

“The farm gate has become a destination in its own right, and the visitor economy implications of that shift are still being fully measured.”

Three in four agritourism trips visited regional Australia in 2024, compared to three in five trips across all tourism categories. This dispersal effect is one of the sector’s most meaningful characteristics. Where general tourism concentrates in capital city corridors, these visitors spread into established food bowl regions: the Barossa Valley, Margaret River, the Hunter Valley, the Mornington Peninsula, the Northern Rivers and more than twenty other identified clusters where on-farm experiences anchor multi-day itineraries and generate sustained economic activity for surrounding communities. “The farm gate has become a destination in its own right, and the visitor economy implications of that shift are still being fully measured.”

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

84 per cent of global travellers would be interested in agritourism experiences on a future international trip, rising to 91 per cent among luxury travellers spending above $1,000 per person per night.

The Agritourism 2030 National Strategy Framework maps a clear growth ambition: farm and farm gate visitor spend growing from $7.4 billion to $18.6 billion by 2030, a trajectory originally identified by CSIRO as part of broader agribusiness diversification analysis. The enablers are progressing. New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania have each moved to reduce planning red tape for farm diversification. State tourism bodies are integrating agritourism clusters into international marketing campaigns. The Australian Tourism Data Warehouse is improving the discoverability of regional operators for inbound travel trade, with better categorisation of agritourism listings supporting search visibility in key overseas markets.

International demand reinforces the runway. Tourism Australia’s research shows 84 per cent of global travellers would be interested in agritourism experiences on a future international trip, rising to 91 per cent among luxury travellers spending above $1,000 per person per night. The United Kingdom, China and the United States were the top three source markets in 2024, collectively accounting for one in three agritourism trips and contributing $1.8 billion to Australian visitor spend. Japan and Germany, while smaller in visitor numbers, record average trip lengths of 61 and 56 nights respectively, reflecting a deep-immersion travel pattern that regional agritourism is well positioned to service.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Business events represent an underappreciated segment within this landscape. Travellers combining a business event with agritourism activities spend an average of $2,610 per trip, nearly double the business events average of $1,368 and stay 9.7 nights against a typical 3.5. Regional properties capable of hosting retreats and executive experiences in an authentic agricultural setting are accessing a premium segment with limited supply competition.

Layered across all of this is the growing wellness travel market. Australia’s wellness economy is valued at US$141 billion, ranking eighth globally, with Australians spending approximately US$5,184 per capita annually, well above the world average of US$831. Farm retreats offering wellness programming, slow-food experiences, forest bathing and digital detox are drawing visitors who seek immersive stays at higher nightly rates and for longer durations. For operators, wellness programming is an increasingly effective tool for smoothing the seasonal occupancy curves that have historically made regional hospitality challenging, extending yield beyond peak harvest and harvest-adjacent months into the quieter parts of the calendar.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

The most advanced regional precincts have understood that singleexperience destinations have a ceiling. The Barossa, Margaret River and Mornington Peninsula succeed because they function as food, hospitality and experience ecosystems, giving visitors reasons to extend their stay rather than move on. South Australia and Western Australia are already punching above their weight on this measure, each drawing a disproportionate share of agritourism trips relative to their overall visitor numbers. With international demand strengthening, government policy aligning, and the wellness overlay extending the yield potential of regional stays, the outlook for Australia’s agritourism regions is one of sustained and broadening growth.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Methodology

Australia’s Regional Outlook 2026 is the third edition of Ray White’s annual analysis of the nation’s regional property markets. It draws on a range of data sources and analytical approaches to examine eight distinct dimensions of regional Australia, spanning residential price performance, the premium market, farmland, rental yields and the regional visitor economy.

PRIMARY PROPERTY DATA Regional residential performance was measured using property data from Neoval and Cotality. Unless otherwise stated, house price analysis is based on median house prices, which provide a stable measure of typical values across markets with widely varying transaction volumes and occasional high-value outliers. Three analyses use a different measure suited to their purpose. The regional luxury precinct analysis (Section 03) uses the 90th percentile house Automated Valuation Model (AVM) for each SA2 to capture the premium end of each market consistently, calculated as a three-month rolling average and then averaged across the markets within each precinct. Because each market is given equal weight rather than being weighted by transaction volume, the resulting series compares how different types of luxury markets have evolved regardless of how many sales occurred in each. The rental yield analysis (Section 06) uses median sale prices and median advertised rents to derive gross rental yields, and is limited to suburbs with at least 100 dwellings with a valid AVM.

Victorian markets were excluded from the SA2 and SA4 growth analysis in Section 01 due to data access restrictions, and where cited elsewhere, median house price data was sourced from Cotality due to data availability from Neoval in Victoria. REGIONAL MARKETS NEAR CAPITAL CITIES The analysis of regional markets near capital cities (Section 02) compares median house price trends across selected regional markets with the performance of their nearest capital city over the period from June 2016 to March 2026. Each regional group is calculated as a simple average across selected local government areas (LGAs): the Central Coast, Wollongong and the Southern Highlands for Sydney; Geelong, the Mornington Peninsula and the Surf Coast for Melbourne; the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast for Brisbane; the Adelaide Hills, Barossa and Fleurieu Peninsula for Adelaide; and Mandurah, Busselton and Margaret River for Perth. FARMLAND AND AGRICULTURAL DATA Farmland values and transaction volumes (Section 04) were sourced from Digital Agricultural Services, reported as median price per hectare at the national and state level for the March quarter of 2026. The commodity environment underpinning landholder decisions was assessed using livestock and fibre benchmarks: the National Young Cattle Indicator, the National Trade Lamb Indicator and the wool market’s Eastern Market Indicator, alongside the June 2026 ABARES Agricultural Commodities Report, which informed the farm business profit forecasts, winter crop production forecasts and input cost analysis.

MINING REGION COMMODITY DATA For the mining town analysis (Section 05), commodity price movements for coal, iron ore, gold and copper were sourced from the World Bank and indexed to January 2016 for comparison against regional median house price growth over the same period. VISITOR ECONOMY DATA The drive tourism and agritourism analyses (Sections 07 and 08) draw primarily on Tourism Research Australia data, including domestic overnight trip and expenditure figures and caravan and camping activity. These were supplemented by government and industry strategy sources, including the THRIVE 2030 Action Plan, the Agritourism 2030 National Strategy Framework, the National Electric Vehicle Strategy, Queensland’s Drive Tourism Marketing Strategy 2032, Tourism Australia research and the Australian Tourism Data Warehouse. GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE Geographic analysis follows Australian Bureau of Statistics classifications to maintain consistency with official boundaries while providing appropriate granularity for each segment. SA2 (Statistical Area Level 2) regions represent communities that interact socially and economically, typically containing populations between 3,000 and 25,000 people, and are used for the affordability and luxury precinct analyses. SA4 (Statistical Area Level 4) regions represent the largest sub-state boundaries, generally containing populations above 100,000 people, and are used for regional growth rankings. Significant Urban Areas (SUAs), which capture towns and cities with populations above 10,000, are used for the town-level growth rankings and the appendix. Local government area (LGA) boundaries are used for the near-capital analysis in Section 02.

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

APP E N DIX 1 .

Top 30 regional sales over the last 12 months STATE

SUBURB

ADDRESS

VALUE

NSW

Broken Head

433 Seven Mile Bch, Broken Head

$36,000,000

QLD

Noosa Heads

29 Cooran Ct, Noosa Heads

$26,845,000

QLD

Noosa Heads

45 Mossman Ct, Noosa Heads

$17,900,000

QLD

Noosa Heads

78 Noosa Pde, Noosa Heads

$16,950,000

QLD

Sunshine Beach

10 Arakoon Cr, Sunshine Beach

$15,500,000

NSW

Kingsdale

407 Crookwell Rd, Kingsdale

$13,500,000

QLD

Noosa Heads

11 Little Cove, Noosa Heads

$13,250,000

QLD

Tinbeerwah

430 Sunrise Rd, Tinbeerwah

$12,000,000

NSW

Ewingsdale

221 Kennedys Lane, Ewingsdale

$10,975,000

NSW

Burrawang

3 Barrett St, Burrawang

$10,200,000

NSW

Lennox Head

24 Blue Seas Pde, Lennox Head

$9,800,000

NSW

Byron Bay

20 Pacific Vsta, Byron Bay

$9,700,000

QLD

Noosaville

17 Wyuna Dr, Noosaville

$9,500,000

NSW

Bawley Point

221 Murramarang Rd, Bawley Point

$8,800,000

QLD

Sunshine Beach

19 Elanda St, Sunshine Beach

$8,400,000

QLD

Sunshine Beach

36 Seaview Tce, Sunshine Beach

$8,250,000

NSW

Orange

671 Ophir Rd, Orange

$8,000,000

NSW

Byron Bay

62 Carlyle St, Byron Bay

$7,810,000

QLD

Noosaville

157 Shorehaven Dr, Noosaville

$7,800,000

QLD

Peregian Beach

19 Shearwater St, Peregian Beach

$7,500,000

QLD

Peregian Beach

25 Pelican St, Peregian Beach

$7,500,000

QLD

Sunrise Beach

72 Tingira Cr, Sunrise Beach

$7,500,000

NSW

Coopers Shoot

305 Coopers Shoot Rd, Coopers Shoot

$7,250,000

QLD

Noosaville

27 Seamount Qy, Noosaville

$7,250,000

NSW

Lennox Head

16 Rayner Lane, Lennox Head

$7,000,000

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

STATE

SUBURB

ADDRESS

VALUE

QLD

Bowen

53 Murrays Bay, Bowen

$7,000,000

QLD

Noosaville

17 Waterside Ct, Noosaville

$6,850,000

NSW

Tintenbar

208 Fernleigh Rd, Tintenbar

$6,750,000

QLD

Cooroy Mountain

369 Cooroy Mountain Rd, Cooroy Mountain

$6,600,000

NSW

Byron Bay

24 Beachcomber Dr, Byron Bay

$6,600,000

APP E N DIX 2 .

Regional SUAs ranked by growth STATE

SUA

VALUE

GROWTH

Port Augusta

$356,000

20.5%

Geraldton

$636,000

19.9%

Whyalla

$375,000

19.6%

Port Pirie

$352,000

19.5%

Kalgoorlie - Boulder

$511,000

19.0%

QLD

Emerald

$555,000

17.4%

Esperance

$669,000

17.1%

QLD

Rockhampton

$655,000

16.9%

QLD

Gladstone

$652,000

16.8%

QLD

Kingaroy

$596,000

16.2%

QLD

Townsville

$713,000

16.1%

Albany

$838,000

15.8%

Port Lincoln

$602,000

15.7%

NSW

Broken Hill

$247,000

15.4%

Bunbury

$801,000

15.4%

QLD

Warwick

$641,000

15.2%

Murray Bridge

$619,000

14.7%

QLD

Maryborough

$607,000

14.4%

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

STATE

SUA

VALUE

GROWTH

QLD

Mackay

$725,000

14.0%

QLD

Bundaberg

$732,000

13.4%

Karratha

$746,000

13.0%

Port Hedland

$644,000

12.7%

Mount Gambier

$594,000

12.6%

Busselton

$1,211,000

12.6%

QLD

Toowoomba

$882,000

12.4%

NSW

Muswellbrook

$622,000

11.9%

TAS

Burnie - Somerset

$559,000

11.8%

QLD

Gympie

$738,000

11.7%

TAS

Devonport

$619,000

11.4%

QLD

Yeppoon

$904,000

11.2%

NSW

Tamworth

$642,000

10.9%

QLD

Cairns

$832,000

10.7%

TAS

Ulverstone

$657,000

10.6%

QLD

Mount Isa

$314,000

10.6%

NSW

Armidale

$651,000

10.5%

QLD

Airlie Beach - Cannonvale

$981,000

10.4%

NSW

Wagga Wagga

$724,000

10.4%

QLD

Hervey Bay

$848,000

10.3%

NSW

Grafton

$554,000

10.1%

Broome

$858,000

10.0%

NSW

Dubbo

$681,000

9.9%

TAS

Launceston

$672,000

9.5%

Victor Harbor - Goolwa

$833,000

9.2%

NSW

Singleton

$799,000

8.8%

NSW

Griffith

$644,000

8.5%

NSW

Kempsey

$542,000

8.4%

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

STATE

SUA

VALUE

GROWTH

NSW

Lismore

$625,000

8.0%

NSW/QLD Gold Coast - Tweed Heads

$1,518,000

7.6%

NSW

Taree

$602,000

7.4%

NSW

Lithgow

$576,000

7.3%

NSW

Bathurst

$750,000

7.0%

NSW

Orange

$760,000

7.0%

NSW

Medowie

$982,000

6.9%

NSW

Mudgee

$799,000

6.9%

NSW

Newcastle - Maitland

$1,010,000

6.7%

QLD

Sunshine Coast

$1,374,000

6.6%

NSW

Goulburn

$721,000

6.3%

NSW

Coffs Harbour

$987,000

6.2%

NSW

Morisset - Cooranbong

$1,039,000

6.1%

NSW

Batemans Bay

$891,000

5.6%

NSW

Camden Haven

$949,000

5.5%

NSW

Nowra - Bomaderry

$824,000

5.0%

NSW

St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point

$920,000

4.9%

NSW

Port Macquarie

$993,000

4.7%

NSW

Forster - Tuncurry

$922,000

4.6%

NSW

Nelson Bay

$1,220,000

4.4%

NSW

Ballina

$1,255,000

4.1%

NSW

Ulladulla

$1,070,000

3.7%

Alice Springs

$524,000

3.7%

NSW

Wollongong

$1,184,000

2.9%

NSW

Bowral - Mittagong

$1,322,000

1.2%

NSW

Byron Bay

$2,437,000

-0.5%

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

APP E N DIX 3 .

Top 50 suburbs by rental yield STATE

SUBURB

PROPERTY TYPE

# OF DWELLINGS WITH VALID AVM

MEDIAN AVM

MEDIAN AVM RENTAL YIELD

QLD

Aramac

House

142

$120,000

33.9%

Mount Magnet

House

261

$49,000

31.3%

NSW

Menindee

House

111

$62,000

23.8%

QLD

Alpha

House

111

$141,000

20.1%

QLD

Augathella

House

167

$158,000

19.4%

QLD

Hughenden

House

506

$230,000

18.9%

NSW

Walgett

House

361

$101,000

18.8%

QLD

Nanum

House

160

$512,000

18.7%

Andamooka

House

254

$68,000

18.7%

QLD

Julia Creek

House

127

$216,000

18.4%

QLD

Laguna Quays

Unit

293

$135,000

18.2%

Meekatharra

House

286

$137,000

17.8%

QLD

Cunnamulla

House

451

$139,000

16.6%

Coober Pedy

House

584

$86,000

16.4%

NSW

Bourke

House

720

$161,000

16.3%

Southern Cross

House

342

$131,000

16.0%

South Hedland

Unit

971

$317,000

15.8%

QLD

Rocky Point

House

405

$532,000

14.9%

QLD

Karumba

House

171

$213,000

14.7%

Tennant Creek

House

535

$231,000

14.3%

Tom Price

House

1170

$807,000

13.9%

Pinnaroo

House

146

$197,000

13.4%

Pegs Creek

Unit

408

$472,000

13.4%

QLD

Richmond

House

234

$229,000

13.3%

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

STATE

SUBURB

PROPERTY TYPE

# OF DWELLINGS WITH VALID AVM

MEDIAN AVM

MEDIAN AVM RENTAL YIELD

VIC

Mallacoota

House

388

$509,000

13.0%

Wyndham

House

181

$219,000

13.0%

QLD

Normanton

House

303

$279,000

12.9%

Paraburdoo

House

660

$518,000

12.9%

Cue

House

114

$161,000

12.9%

Newman

Unit

177

$310,000

12.8%

Newman

House

1724

$386,000

12.6%

Bulgarra

Unit

324

$428,000

12.3%

QLD

Quilpie

House

244

$174,000

12.2%

QLD

Boyne Valley

House

109

$386,000

12.2%

Cable Beach

Unit

709

$401,000

12.0%

NSW

North Arm Cove

House

1163

$280,000

11.9%

Baynton

Unit

111

$674,000

11.9%

South Hedland

House

3057

$541,000

11.7%

NSW

Mungindi

House

144

$182,000

11.6%

VIC

Rainbow

House

179

$208,000

11.6%

Koorda

House

134

$207,000

11.6%

QLD

Dolphin Heads

Unit

171

$239,000

11.6%

Kimba

House

253

$217,000

11.5%

QLD

Pioneer

House

675

$237,000

11.5%

Kambalda East

House

333

$213,000

11.4%

QLD

Thursday Island

House

306

$641,000

11.4%

QLD

Tara

House

556

$272,000

11.3%

QLD

Middlemount

Unit

107

$199,000

11.3%

Broome

Unit

515

$441,000

11.2%

QLD

Middlemount

House

917

$206,000

11.2%

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

R AY W H I T E

Economics Team The Ray White Economics team delivers independent research and analysis across residential, commercial, and rural property markets. Led by Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee, the team combines rigorous data analysis with deep market expertise to produce insights that are both credible and accessible. Drawing on one of Australia’s largest real estate datasets and a national network of market intelligence, the team tracks the trends, forces, and shifts shaping Australian real estate, helping buyers, sellers, and investors navigate with clarity and confidence.

VANESSA RADER

NERIDA CONISBEE

Head of Research

Chief Economist

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

ATOM GO TIAN Economist

ANITA VENKATESH Content Strategy and Production Lead

KEVIN WANG Content Production Coordinator

PAOLO SUMULONG Data Scientist

2026 REGIONAL OUTLOOK