RIA Manifesto Deep Dive: 1. Publish a long-term strategy

1

Publish a long-term rail strategy that plans for growth

Nearly 200 years ago, the UK led the world in developing the first railways, which powered the industrial revolution. Today, enhancing the rail connectivity of people and goods across the country is a crucial ingredient to improving prosperity across the UK. Recent research shows that transport connectivity supports productivity growth.1 The rapid investments that other countries around the world are making in modern railway networks also underline the case for providing fast, reliable rail connections – especially between major urban centres.

In May 2024 the National Infrastructure Commission identified important rail capacity gaps between major cities such as Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and Bristol, which risk holding back their economic growth and productivity if left unaddressed.2 We now need to develop and stick to a comprehensive long-term strategy for UK rail spanning both North-South and East-West connections. Such a strategy will provide essential context for plans developed by mayoral and other sub-national transport bodies.

The life of rail assets spans many decades, so a long-term strategy is essential for value for money and to make the right trade-offs. Making the best choices is difficult in the absence of a clear strategy. It is ultimately the strategic case for investment that should be the primary question in prioritising rail projects. Decisions should primarily be led by the need to support economic growth, connect people with jobs and essential services, and to decarbonise transport.

A clear rail strategy, beyond political cycles, is also needed to unlock the full economic and industrial potential of the supply chain. Long-term certainty encourages investment and innovation by providing confidence for businesses to invest in the skills, equipment, and innovation to meet the needs of the future railway. By planning effectively for the longer term, we reduce costs and help ensure healthy competition.

The UK has a proud history of rail exports, with many countries still looking to UK expertise to support their own networks. With a clear strategy there is significant opportunity to build on the UK’s brand, and position the UK-based rail industry for more exports. The global rolling stock market is forecast to grow from US$64bn in 2023 to US$106bn by 2031.3

A clear rail strategy, beyond political cycles is needed to unlock the full economic and industrial potential of the supply chain.

Ambition is urgently needed With a pressing challenge to decarbonise transport networks, and a growing population, the long-term strategy needs to build on the recent Government commitment to grow freight by 75% to 2050. It should also set ambitious targets for sustained passenger growth, given passenger demand is set to grow by between 37-97% by 2050, depending on government policies.4 The potential to nearly double passenger rail travel by 2050 (compared with the pre-pandemic historic peak in rail travel) should be a clear aspiration to plan towards.

Growing rail usage is a huge opportunity to boost economic growth and productivity, but also requires significant forward planning, so that potential passengers, and freight shippers, are attracted to make full use of a modern, accessible and low-carbon public transport network.

The long-term strategy must also address the need to maintain the current network in a sustainable and high-performing condition, as well as the need to enhance rail capacity where there are pinch points or bottlenecks, such as on the West Coast Mainline.

Beyond setting out a clear vision for the future capacity and capability of the network, the strategy must also be visionary in looking at future passenger expectations, and logistics industry needs. It will need to consider technology, people, sustainability and the importance of growing revenues. The strategy therefore needs to engage and build consensus across different groups.

The long-term strategy will need to be informed by, and support, wider government objectives on: • • • •

Economic and productivity growth Housing development Low-carbon transition City and regional development plans, including supporting social mobility

Projected future demand is between 37% and 97% higher than pre-pandemic peak Source: Steer. 2024. Research on Long-Term Passenger Demand Growth

Passenger demand (millions of journeys)

4000 Potential future demand is between 37% and 97% of the pre-pandemic maximum

3500 3000 Pre-pandemic historic peak

2500

Rapid post-pandemic recovery of demand

2000 1500 1000 COVID-19 pandemic

500 0

2015

2020

2025

2030

Optimistic Scenario

2035

2040

2045

2050

Pessimistic Scenario

What is RIA doing?

RIA is actively advocating for a long-term strategy in Parliament, with Government Ministers and with the wider rail industry.

This has included giving evidence at the House of Commons Transport Select Committee, voicing the view that producing a long term strategy should be made a legal requirement.

RIA has also provided cross industry thought leadership setting out important aspects of what a strategy will need to include.

Our 2024 report ‘A lower cost, higher performing, net zero railway’ provides a plausible and affordable plan for rolling stock and track electrification up to 2050, with a high level of cross-industry support.5

What needs to happen next - Practical steps for success 1.

Start by setting a firm date for developing and finalising a comprehensive long-term strategy for rail, to be completed within the first 12 months of the new Government. Given that much preparatory work has been undertaken by the Great British Railways Transition Team, RIA believes that it is realistic to consult on and finalise a long-term strategy within 6-9 months.

2.

Use the Rail Reform Bill to introduce a legal requirement to produce a long-term strategy (25-30 years), updated at each five yearly periodic review. A legal requirement will ensure that future governments maintain the strategy, no matter the short term considerations.

3.

Government publishes a draft long-term strategy, and then engage with the railway industry before finalising. The strategy should include: •

Commitment to ambitious targets for passenger, freight, and revenue growth to 2050, and the intermediate stages;

•

A strategic programme of high impact electrification supported by low-carbon technologies such as battery trains;

•

A long-term rolling stock strategy;

•

Commitments to providing new rail capacity where studies show it is needed – especially between Midlands and the North, with particular focus on alleviating the West Coast Mainline which will soon be at full capacity; and

•

A plan for boosting UK rail exports.

4.

The long-term strategy must be translated into a prioritised pipeline of projects, so that the supply chain can plan efficiently, keep costs down and invest in training people with the right skills.

5.

Finally, develop institutional arrangements to set and monitor progress towards outcomes, so there is independent oversight accountability for the commitments. The National Infrastructure Commission or the Office of Rail and Road would have a role to play here.

Footnotes 1.

See https://www.northernpowerhousepartnership.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Growth-and-Transport-in-Greater-Manchesterto-upload.pdf and https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/198_AWP_final.pdf

2.

National Infrastructure Commission. 2024. Infrastructure Progress Review. https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/NIC-IPR-2024-Final.pdf.

3.

Rolling Stock Market to Cross USD 105.92 Billion by 2031 owing to Growing Investments in Railway Infrastructure (streetinsider.com)

4.

https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/Government_should_seize_opportunity_to_grow_passenger_rail. aspx

5.

https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/A_lower_cost__higher_performing_net-zero_railway