At What Age do Soccer Players Peak? Ask an Economist

Harry Kane is a dynamic, unstoppable striker for Tottenham Hotspur.

He scores fantastic, breathtaking goals, seemingly at will, against some of the world’s best soccer teams in the English Premier League.

Kane, who is 24 years old and already a superstar, hasn’t yet hit his peak age, according to research conducted by Radford University Associate Professor of Economics Seife Dendir.

For years, soccer managers and executives have speculated about the peak age for professional soccer players. All previous evidence has been anecdotal and subjective, with no formal analytics being applied to the questions.

Using statistics from WhoScored.com, Dendir conducted a study using data from fall 2010 to spring 2015 from four major European soccer leagues, including the Premier League, to formally analyze the peak or optimal age of a professional soccer player.

He wrote about his findings in a paper, “When do soccer players peak? A note,” in the Journal of Sports Analytics, which was published in 2016.

Dendir’s findings suggest that on average, professional soccer players peak between the ages of 25 and 27, depending on their positions on the pitch. Goalkeepers were not included in the study.

“In the preferred models, the average forward peaks at 25, whereas the typical defender peaks at 27,” Dendir wrote. “For midfielders, the estimated peak age varies by model, but still occurs in the 25–27 age band.”

Defenders, Dendir explained, “experience relatively minimal curvature in the age-performance relationship. Further results show that peak age may vary directly with ability.”

Dendir’s findings could impact the economic decisions team executives make when putting together their team rosters. “They have to ask, ‘Are we paying too much or too little?’ This study can give them an idea of whether or not they want to pay a premium price for particular players.”

One discussion Dendir hopes his study will generate pertains to the American soccer model versus the European model. In Europe, players tend to turn professional at an earlier age than do American players, thereby gaining more experience in professional leagues during their peak years.

“Is it too late a start for American soccer players, who are going to be competing with other professionals?” Dendir said. “By the time American players become professionals, they are already four or five years behind their European peers.”

Dendir’s areas of research traditionally include economic development, applied microeconomics and econometrics. However, his love for soccer influenced him to delve into the data and take a closer look at a question that thus far had been answered with only anecdotal and subjective evidence from the game’s players, coaches and executives.

His study provides the first systematic, comprehensive and thorough investigation of the issue. ■