Smarter planning for the energy transition

Smarter planning for the energy transition Report at a glance

Final Report

Project team

Theme E2: Innovative foresighting and planning

University of Technology Sydney

Opportunity Assessment Smarter planning for the energy transition Project Code: 21.E2.A.0189 Copyright © RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre, 2022 ISBN: 978-1-922746-27-6 December 2022

Citation Riedy, C., Economou, D., Koskinen, I., Dargaville, R., Gui, E., Niklas, S., Nagrath, K., Wright, S., Hargroves, C., Newman, P., James, B., Gilmore, N., and Paget, G. (2022). Anticipatory planning for the energy transition: Final Report. Opportunity Assessment for RACE for 2030.

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Chris Riedy Sarah Niklas Kriti Nagrath Simon Wright

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Charlie Hargroves Peter Newman Dean Economou Ben James

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Ilpo Koskinen Nick Gilmore Greta Paget

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Roger Dargaville Emi Gui (Climateworks Centre and Monash Sustainable Development Institute)

Curtin University

University of New South Wales

Monash University

Project partners

Acknowledgements Australian Energy Market Operator, CSIRO - Energy Business Unit, Energy Consumers Australia What is RACE for 2030?

Reliable, Affordable Clean Energy for 2030 (RACE for 2030) is an innovative collaborative research centre for energy and carbon transition. We were funded with $68.5 million of Commonwealth funds and commitments of $280 million of cash and in-kind contributions from our partners. Our aim is to deliver $3.8 billion of cumulative energy productivity benefits and 20 megatons of cumulative carbon emission savings by 2030. racefor2030.com.au Acknowledgement of Country The authors of this report would like to respectfully acknowledge the Traditional Owners of the ancestral lands throughout Australia and their connection to land, sea and community. We recognise their continuing connection to the land, waters, and culture and pay our respects to them, their cultures and to their Elders past, present, and emerging.

Disclaimer

The authors have used all due care and skill to ensure the material is accurate as at the date of this report. The authors do not accept any responsibility for any loss that may arise by anyone relying upon its contents.

What is the report about The Opportunity Assessment report uses information gleaned from stakeholder consultation and a literature review to describe the current state of play in Australian energy planning, with a focus on three different approaches to energy system planning (exploratory, normative and forecasting methods). The report compares Australia’s implementation of planning and foresighting methods with international best practice, identifying gaps in Australian capacity and delivery, and presents a Research Roadmap to resolve shortfalls.

Why is it important?

The future of the energy sector has never been less certain. Climate change, accelerating technological development and changes in customer roles and expectations are breaking down old models of energy supply and forcing an energy transition. Disruptive processes associated with the rise of distributed energy resources, including solar PV, EVs, and smart energy management, require a new planning approach that is still emerging.

What did we do?

The methods used in developing the Opportunity Assessment included stakeholder consultation and a three-part literature review (current state of anticipation in the Australian energy system; review of international best practice in anticipation; additional literature review based on stakeholder consultation outcomes).

What difference will it make?

Addressing gaps identified in developing the Opportunity Assessment will increase Australia’s capacity to prepare and respond to an uncertain energy future, including greater variety in generation sources, the increasing role of consumers and the impact of net zero policies. The key gaps identified are: 1.

A lack of high-level (government-led) institutional support and leadership for comprehensive anticipatory planning and action.

2. Absence of integrated resource planning (least-cost planning) for the whole energy system.

3. Insufficient quantitative and qualitative data to support anticipatory action.

4. Limited understanding of current and future customer needs and aspirations, and how these can be expected to evolve in the future.

5. Low familiarity with, and use of, innovative anticipatory methods to support decision-making under uncertain conditions.

6. Failure to comprehensively plan for a rapid transition to net zero carbon futures.

7. Few spaces where genuine, diverse stakeholder dialogue about the future of the energy system is encouraged and influential.

What’s next?

The Report includes a Research Roadmap that will guide the future work of RACE for 2030 under Theme E2. It scopes out four major research projects: 1. A Decentralised Energy Data Inventory to fill data gaps relating to current uptake of decentralised energy products and services 2. A Least-Cost Energy Strategy to identify an optimal mix of centralised and decentralised energy opportunities to meet customer needs while transitioning to a net zero world 3. An Australian Energy Futures report series to support more robust and informed decisionmaking by reviewing and publicising possible futures for the Australian energy system 4. A Decentralised Energy Statement of Opportunities to draw attention to opportunities to deliver energy services through actions in distribution networks and behind the meter.

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