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OILS & FATS INTERNATIONAL JANUARY 2026 ▪ VOL 42 NO 1 WWW.OFIMAGAZINE.COM

PALM OIL

Policies impact prices

COCONUT OIL Prices soar

CONTENTS

OILS & FATS INTERNATIONAL

IN THIS ISSUE – JANUARY 2026

FEATURES

Rendering/Aquaculture

NEWS & EVENTS

Palm Oil

Policies impact prices Photo: Adobe Stock

Indonesia’s land seizures and B50 biodiesel blending policy — along with energy, biofuel and decarbonisation strategies worldwide — are driving the palm oil market Coconut Oil

Photo: Adobe Stock

Moving away from fish oil & meal As global aquaculture expands, plantbased proteins and oils are replacing fish meal and oil as feed ingredients

Comment

2 News

Global round-up of news

OFI reports on some of the latest projects, technology and process news and developments around the world

Biofuel News

Shipping & Transport

New Arctic route The trade wars launched by US President Donald Trump have led to the exploration of a new Arctic shipping route for oils, fats and oilseeds from Canada’s Hudson Bay

We make storage active

EUDR delay confirmed with European Parliament vote European countries could end double-counting policy

Renewable News

Future Origins scales surfactant ingredient

Biotech News

Bayer sues AIG insurance over Roundup

Transport News

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USA suspends port fees on Chinese-built cargo ships

Diary of Events

International events listing

OFI International 2026 Event

OFI International 2026 comes to Amsterdam

International Market Review

Oil still on choppy waters

Statistics

36 www.ofimagazine.com

The value of waste

Plant & Technology

Prices soar Coconut oil prices have soared amid tight supplies caused by adverse weather and high demand for food, cosmetic and biofuel uses

Photo: Adobe Stock

World statistical data OFI – JANUARY 2026

EDITOR'S COMMENT

VOL 42 NO 1 JANUARY 2026

OILS & FATS INTERNATIONAL

EDITORIAL: Editor: Serena Lim serenalim@quartzltd.com +44 1737 855066 Assistant Editor: Gill Langham gilllangham@quartzltd.com +44 1737 855157

The value of waste Palm oil mill effluent (POME) used to be a low or even negative value waste that mills had to treat and dispose of safely. Today, this thick, brownish wastewater has gained both in value and significance because POME can be used as a waste feedstock to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel, also known as HVO.

ADVERTISING: Mark Winthrop-Wallace markww@quartzltd.com +44 1737 855114

Because waste and residues can be ‘double counted’ towards advanced biofuel targets under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED), concerns have been growing that some of the POME being used may be fraudulent or mis-reported, in much the same way as the controversy over used cooking oil (UCO).

PRODUCTION: Production Editor: Carol Baird carolbaird@quartzltd.com

Official data has stated that more than 2M tonnes of POME feedstock was consumed in EU biofuels in 2023, while real-world availability was estimated at 1M tonnes.

CORPORATE: Managing Director: Tony Crinion tonycrinion@quartzltd.com +44 1737 855164 SUBSCRIPTIONS: Jack Homewood subscriptions@quartzltd.com +44 1737 855028 Subscriptions, Quartz House, 20 Clarendon Road, Redhill, Surrey RH1 1QX, UK SUBSCRIPTION RATES: Print & digital: Single issue – £45 1 year – £182 (UK), £210 (overseas) 2 years – £328 (UK), £377 (overseas) 3 years – £383 (UK), £440 (overseas) Digital only: Single issue – £29 1 year – £170 2 years – £272 3 years – £357

Concerns over mis-classification of POME feedstock has led to both Germany and France proposing to restrict or eliminate the double counting of POME as they implement the third version of the RED (see p10). This would end the high incentive to utilise POME as a biofuels feedstock, with its use and price based on its actual energy content. It is also important to recognise that the actual potential of POME is linked to the production of palm oil. An estimated 80M tonnes/year of global crude palm oil (CPO) production would result in around 200-240M tonnes of POME. But only a very small amount of POME oil (the oily material skimmed off the effluent) can be recovered for use as a biofuel feedstock. The typical oil recovery rate is 0.5%–1.5% of POME (by weight), or 0.005–0.015 tonnes of POME oil per tonne of POME. Therefore, 80M tonnes/year of CPO would yield around 1-3M tonnes/year of POME oil. This is hardly the silver bullet for decarbonising aviation for those operating in the SAF sphere.

Apart from weather, government policies are a major factor impacting the global oils and fats market. The POME and UCO markets are an illustration of this.

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Another is the EU Deforesation Regulation (EUDR), introduced to stop the import and sale in the EU of seven commodities linked to deforestation – palm oil, soyabean, timber, rubber, coffee, cocoa and cattle.

A member of FOSFA Oils & Fats International (USPS No: 020747) is published eight times/year by Quartz Business Media Ltd and distributed in the USA by DSW, 75 Aberdeen Road, Emigsville PA 17318-0437. Periodicals postage paid at Emigsville, PA. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Oils & Fats c/o PO Box 437, Emigsville, PA 17318-0437 Published by Quartz Business Media Ltd Quartz House, 20 Clarendon Road, Redhill, Surrey RH1 1QX, UK oilsandfats@quartzltd.com +44 1737 855000 Printed by Stephens & George Print Group, Merthyr Tydfil, Wales

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Due to come into force at the end December 2025 after being delayed by a year, the European Council and Parliament agreed to delay the regulation for another year for all operators until 30 December 2026, with an extra six-month cushion for micro and small operators to 30 June 2027 (see news, p4). As we went to press, the European Parliament voted through the delay on 17 December. OFI has already written extensively about the EUDR and its impact on the palm and soyabean oil markets, on operators and what they need to do to comply with the regulation’s traceability and due diligence requirements, and the administrative burden on smallholders in particular. A simplified due diligence system is being introduced and a review of the EUDR must be carried out by the EU Commission by 30 April 2026, meaning the regulation may undergo further amendments. For now, we can only hope that it will be third time lucky when 30 December 2026 approaches for those that have worked tirelessly to comply with the EUDR. Serena Lim, OFI Editor, serenalim@quartzltd.com www.ofimagazine.com

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NEWS EU: Palm oil imports into the EU have continued to decline, according to EU Commission (EC) figures reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Plants and Protein (UFOP). The decline was due to the exclusion of palm oilbased biofuels being credited towards national quota obligations, alongside an increase in imports of waste oils and fats for use in transport fuel production, the 12 November report said. According to EC import figures, EU-27 countries imported nearly 958,000 tonnes of palm oil between 1 July-2 November 2025 – a drop of around 20% compared to the same period the previous year. Malaysia remained the leading supplier, supplying 272,000 tonnes and accounting for 28% of total imports, a slight increase in the country’s exports compared to the reference period. Indonesia ranked second with 261,000 tonnes, marking a sharp decline. The Netherlands remained the leading hub for European palm oil trading and a key location for biofuel production. At 353,000 tonnes, the country imported around 12% more palm oil than in the same period the previous year. Italy took second place among importing countries, importing 303,000 tonnes, an 8% fall. According to UFOP, the continued decline in imports reflects public debate on palm oil. “In several EU member states, this has already led to the exclusion of biofuels derived from palm oil from counting towards quota obligations. Such exclusions must be implemented across the entire EU by 2030,” UFOP said. 4 OFI – JANUARY 2026

EUDR delay confirmed with European Parliament vote On 17 December, as OFI went to press, the European Parliament voted to delay and simplify the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This follows a provsional agreement reached by the Parliament and the European Council (EC) on 4 December to delay implementation of the regulation by a year as part of a ‘targeted revision’ of the legislation. The aim is to simplify the existing rules and postpone their application to allow operators, traders and authorities time to prepare adequately, according to a 4 December statement on the European Commission (EC)’s official website. Originally due to take effect on 30 December 2024 and delayed for a year, the EUDR covers seven commodities linked to deforestation – palm oil, soyabean, timber, rubber, coffee, cocoa and cattle. Traders and operators who would like to use or sell these products in the EU must prove that they are deforestation-free, legally produced and traceable to their source by submitting due diligence

statements (DDSs) on an IT system supporting the law. However, some countries and stakeholders have been concerned about the readiness of companies and administrations to implement the EUDR, as well as about technical issues related to the IT system. Under the agreed changes, downstream operators and traders will no longer be required to submit a DDS for products that are already covered by a statement. Products will only require one statement submission in the EUDR IT system, at the point it first enters the EU market, by the EU operator placing it on the market Micro and small primary operators will only be required to submit a simplified due diligence declaration. A simplification review of the EUDR must be carried out by the EU Commission by 30 April 2026, meaning the regulation may undergo further amendments.

Global palm oil prices set to increase

Photo: Adobe Stock

IN BRIEF

Palm oil prices are set to surge as Indonesia ramps up its biofuel plans, a move that is expected to cut supplies available for export from the world’s top producer and deepen a global squeeze, according to a 12 November report by The Edge Singapore. Indonesia planned to increase domestic blending of palm oil-based biodiesel from 40% (B40) to 50% (B50) by the second half of next year, the report said. However, the initiative – alongside stagnating output growth in the world’s biggest producers – could drive up global prices, shift flows of vegetable oils and increase food

inflation if buyers were forced to seek costlier alternatives. If the Indonesian government pushed ahead with B50, prices could climb to MYR5,000 (US$1,210)/tonne in the January-June 2026 period, Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) chairman Eddy Martono said ahead of the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference 2025 and 2026 Price Outlook conference in mid-November. Although Indonesian authorities had completed B50 laboratory tests, road-safety tests had not begun, the report said. GAPKI secretary general M Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono said expansion of the mandate would boost Indonesia’s palm oil use for biodiesel by a quarter and potentially cut the country’s total palm exports to 26M tonnes in 2026, from an estimated 31M tonnes in 2025. CGS International Securities Group's associate director of research Jacquelyn Yow said full B50 implementation could bring Indonesia’s total biofuel consumption to 15.6M tonnes, roughly 18% of global palm oil use, while Godrej International director Dorab Mistry said it could drive palm oil prices to a threeyear high of MYR5,500 (US$1,331) in the first quarter of 2026. See also 'Policies impact prices', p24 www.ofimagazine.com

UNITING INDUSTRY, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 21-23 September 2026, Amsterdam, the Netherlands www.ofimagazine.com/ofi-international-2026

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NEWS WORLD: Global soyabean consumption is set to reach a new record of about 430M tonnes, according to International Grain Council (IGC) estimates reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Plants and Protein (UFOP). The growth in consumption was driven by rising demand for meat and, consequently, high-protein animal feed, particularly in Asia’s rapidly expanding food production sector, the 31 October report said. Despite good harvests, supply on the global soyabean market remained tight and consumption was growing faster than production, causing stocks to decline for the first time in several years, the report said. At the same time, the shift in world trade towards South America was becoming increasingly strong. The IGC estimated global soyabean production in 2025/26 at 428M tonnes. At an estimated 116M tonnes, the US harvest was expected to remain around 3% below the previous season’s level due to poor weather conditions and delayed harvest operations. A record crop was forecast in Brazil, which strengthened its position as the world’s leading supplier. Production was projected to rise to 177M tonnes, equivalent to a planted area of approximately 47M ha.

China's commitment to US soya purchases questioned Traders have doubts that China will fulfil its commitment to purchase 12M tonnes of US soyabeans in 2025 and 25M tonnes/year from 2026-2028 as part of a 30 October agreement signed between the two countries, according to a 4 December World Grain report. Six cargoes of US soyabeans were reportedly loading at US Gulf ports for shipment to China, with a seventh en route, at the time of a 2 December Reuters report. They would be the first deliveries to China since earlier in the year. China had bought 1.584M tonnes of US soyabeans for delivery in 2025/26 over three days during the week of 16 November, the largest one-week purchase in more than two years, World Grain wrote. November bookings for shipment in 2025/26 totalled 2.151M tonnes, along with a 100,000-tonne “good-faith” purchase on

30 October, the report said. However, with less than a month remaining in the calendar year, the total fell well below China’s 12M tonne commitment and doubts remained if it would fulfil its long-term commitments as well, the report said. China had not confirmed details of the late October trade framework agreement with the USA, World Grain wrote. Since the signing of the trade deal, US President Donald Trump had said saying the 12M tonne commitment would be fulfilled before the early part of 2026, backtracking on Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ earlier statement that it would be met in 2025, the report said. The US Department of Agriculture’s November World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates, put total US 2025/26 soyabean exports at 44.5M tonnes, down 13% from 2024/25.

Global 2024/25 olive oil output hits high

Photo: Adobe Stock

IN BRIEF

Worldwide olive oil production reached a record level of 3.5M tonnes in 2024/25, Olive Oil Times wrote on 26 November, citing a new study. The provisional figure would be higher than the previous record set in 2021/22, when output totalled 3.415M

tonnes. The estimate was also well above the five-year average of 3M tonnes and almost 36% higher than the reduced output seen in 2023/2024. Published by Spain’s Agrobank in collaboration with the Olive Oil World Congress (OOWC) citing European

Commission (EC) data, the study also confirmed the steady expansion of olive oil production outside the EU. In 2024/2025, non-EU producers accounted for 40% of global output. This compared to a share of 33% in 2021/22, according to International Olive Council (IOC) data. The study said that 58 countries across five continents produced olive oil, including newer entrants such as El Salvador, Ethiopia, Kuwait, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and North Macedonia. The authors said EC data also showed that after years of steady growth from 2015, demand had stabilised at around 3M tonnes.

Supreme Court hears arguments in lawsuits against Trump tariffs US Supreme Court justices heard oral arguments on 5 November in two lawsuits over President Donald Trump’s tariffs on many US imports, Reuters wrote on the same day. Both conservative and liberal justices raised concerns about whether a 1977 law meant for use during national emergencies gave Trump the power to impose tariffs or if the Republican president had intruded on

6 OFI – JANUARY 2026

the powers of Congress, the report said. Trump’s imposition of wide-ranging 1050% tariffs on US imports from countries had forced thousands of companies that imported goods to pay substantially higher costs, MSN wrote on 5 November. Businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 US states had challenged the tariffs, Reuters wrote.

Conservative Chief Justice John Roberts was quoted as telling US Solicitor General D John Sauer that the tariffs were “the imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress”. If the Supreme Court did rule against the tariffs, the Trump administration had already said it would impose new tariffs under other laws, the MSN report said. www.ofimagazine.com

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NEWS BRAZIL: US food and drink giant PepsiCo has launched a regenerative agriculture programme in the Cerrado region in collaboration with local partners Griffith Foods and Milhão. Brazil’s Cerrado region produced 60% of Brazil’s soyabeans and a substantial amount of corn, PepsiCo said on 3 November. However, the region faced mounting threats from deforestation, soil degradation and climate stress. PepsiCo said its pilot programme would cover 2,832ha of land, with plans to scale to 12,140ha, and a total investment of US$1M over three years. The project aimed to contribute to PepsiCo’s efforts to spread the adoption of regenerative agriculture, protective and restorative practices across 4M ha by 2030. The pilot introduced a hybrid Payment for Practice and Payment for Outcomes model, directly compensating farmers for adopting regenerative agriculture practices such as composting, biological inputs and reducing chemical fertiliser use. As part of the model, farmers would receive upfront payments to offset the cost of sustainable inputs and would also receive performance-based bonuses for reducing agrochemical applications during the season, PepsiCo said.

Final approval for Mars' acquisition of Kellanova Confectionery and snack giant Mars announced the completion of its US$36bn acquisition of global snacking business Kellanova on 11 December after receiving final regulatory approval from the European Commission on 8 December. Kellanova resulted from the split of the old Kellogg Company, completed in October 2023. The split also resulted in the formation of North American cereal business WK Kellogg, which Italian chocolate and confectionery giant Ferrero acquired for US$3.1bn in September. On completion, Mars said Kellanova’s portfolio of snacking brands – which included Pringles, Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts, Rice Krispies Treats, RXBAR and Kellogg’s international cereal brands – would join the existing Mars Snacking portfolio, which

included brands like Snickers, M&M’S, Twix, Skittles, EXTRA and KIND. Mars said it expected the combined snacking business to generate around US$36bn/year, with a portfolio that included brands worth US$9bn. Mars Snacking would continue to be headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and would operate in more than 145 markets, with 80 global production facilities and more than 170 retail outlets like Hotel Chocolat and M&M’S World, the company said. A combined Mars and Kellanova would account for around 12% of the US snacking and confectionery industry, according to market share data from NielsenIQ.

EU approves Kensing sunflower sterol

Photo: Adobe Stock

IN BRIEF

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has approved a new plant sterol sourced from sunflowerseeds produced by US speciality ingredients company Kensing. The approval granted Kens-

ing commercial exclusivity for Sunvasterol in Europe, the firm said on 11 November. “It confirms that sunflower-derived phytosterols deliver a strong cholesterol-lowering benefit,” said Kensing.

Phytosterols were a natural lipid component of oilseeds, grains, nuts, legumes and other plant seeds, Kensing said. They reduced cholesterol by competing with dietary and biliary cholesterol for absorption in the intestines, lowering the amount of cholesterol entering the bloodstream. The EFSA approval indicated that a daily intake of 1.53g of Sunvasterol could help reduce total and LDL cholesterol by about 7%-12% over two to three weeks when incorporated into authorised food categories, the firm said. The product could be incorporated into fat-containing foods including yoghurts and margarines and spreads.

Lancet report finds ultra-processed foods harm every organ Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have been linked to causing harm to every major human organ, The Independent wrote, citing a new report published in The Lancet medical journal on 18 November. In the study, 43 scientists and researchers said UPFs reduced diet quality and contributed to multiple chronic diseases. They reviewed 104 long-term studies on UPFs 8 OFI – JANUARY 2026

and found 92 reported greater associated risks of one or more chronic diseases, and early death from all causes. UPFs – such as ready meals, crisps, and breakfast cereals – often contain high levels of saturated fat, salt, sugar and additives, which encourage over-eating and leave less room for more nutritious foods, experts say. The Lancet study authors said the key

driver of the rise in UPFs was "the growing economic and political power of the UPF industry, and its restructuring of food systems for profitability above all else.” Industry activities included direct lobbying, “infiltrating government agencies” and filing lawsuits. However, industry groups dismissed the findings as “sensationalism”, Euractiv wrote on 19 November.

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BIOFUEL NEWS CHINA: China is increasing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production with Beijing approving three additional biofuel refiners for SAF exports, issuing quotas totalling 788,000-828,000 tonnes/ year to Shandong Haike Chemical, Shandong Sanju Bioenergy and Bain Capital-backed EcoCeres, Vesper wrote on 24 October. According to Reuters, China has increased projected SAF exports to 1.2M tonnes for 2025. AUSTRALIA: Energy firm Viva Energy said on 15 October that it had signed a deal with Cleanaway Waste Management to produce renewable diesel from used cooking oil (UCO) in Australia. Large quantities of domestic UCO would be delivered to Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery to produce advanced fuels like renewable diesel and products such as biocircular polymer. The aim was to establish an ongoing supply of UCO from Cleanaway’s Laverton UCO treatment facility. Viva Energy said it had been running a pilot programme at its Geelong refinery to process UCO in commercial quantities – alongside crude oil – into high-value products.

European countries could end double-counting policy Photo: Adobe Stock

IN BRIEF

The German government has reached an informal agreement to end the double-counting of advanced biofuels to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quotas, a 6 November Vesper report quoted industry sources as saying. According to an internal memo from industry association VDB, the energy ministry expects a legal amendment to take effect on 1 January 2026, under revised proposals to implement the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) into law. The proposed change would have significant implications for used cooking oil methyl ester

(UCOME) biodiesel, with the elimination of double-counting removing a significant economic incentive for UCOME production, the report said. The Netherlands is pursuing similar reforms, according to Vesper. The Dutch Emissions Authority had confirmed that UCOME would be treated as a fossil fuel if supplied to the maritime sector, the report said. While UCOME would remain eligible for compliance in road transport and inland waterways sectors, bunkering demand for UCOME was expected to decline. France, meanwhile, released an initial draft proposal on 12 May mentioning its government’s intention to transition its biofuels mandate to a GHG reduction model, S&P Global wrote on 12 June. It also proposed a 1.95% target for advanced biofuels by 2030 “without the application of double counting.” European biodiesel producers now faced a strategic decision point, with the elimination of double-counting removing a significant economic incentive for UCOME production, while growing Asian demand for UCO feedstock had created additional supply constraints, the report said.

Work begins on Malaysian SAF/HVO plant Construction of the Pengerang Biorefinery for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production has begun. The joint venture between Malaysian energy group PETRONAS, Japanese biotech firm Euglena and Italian Eni subsidiary Enilive would would have the capacity to produce about 650,000 tonnes/year of SAF, HVO and bionaphtha from used vegetable oils, animal fats and vegetable processing waste, the companies said on 10 November. The biorefinery –

scheduled to start operations by the second half of 2028 – was located within the Pengerang Integrated Complex in Johor. Its geographical position and access to major international shipping lanes would help it meet biofuel demand, particularly across Asia, the firms said. When first announcing the new biorefinery last July, the companies said PETRONAS Mobility Lestari Sdn Bhd (PMLSB) – a subsidiary of PETRONAS – and Enilive would be the largest shareholders of the joint venture.

Renewable diesel capacity in USA slowed in 2024 Biofuel production in the USA slowed in 2024, with output increasing by a modest 3% from the start of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). A reduction in the production of renewable diesel and other biofuels – comprising sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable naphtha and renewable propane – accounted for most of the slowdown in growth, the EIA said on 27 October. Renewable diesel and other biofuels production capacity increased by 391M gallons

(1.48bn litres)/year in 2024, less than a third of the growth in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, only two capacity additions came online, both in California: Phillips 66’s conversion of its Rodeo refinery to produce biofuels and the new Renewable Fuels LLC plant in Bakersfield, the report said. The converted Rodeo plant had a capacity of 767M gallons (2.9bn litres)/year, making it the second largest renewable diesel plant in the USA, after Diamond Green Diesel’s 982M gallons (3.7bn litres)/ year plant in Norco, Louisiana.

10 OFI – JANUARY 2026

US capacity growth from the Rodeo expansion and the 138M gallons (522M litres)/year Bakersfield plant was partially offset by the loss of capacity at facilities belonging to Monroe Energy, Chevron, Vertex Energy and Jaxon Energy. The EIA said low petroleum refinery margins and rising biofuel credit values in 2020 and 2021 had prompted a wave of renewable diesel capacity announcements, but with margins growing for petroleum refineries, investments in renewable diesel capacity had slowed.

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RENEWABLE NEWS

Future Origins scales surfactant ingredient US-based biotech research company Future Origins – a joint venture majority-owned by industrial biotech firm Geno – has scaled up production of its Nalo zero-deforestation ingredient for surfactants, Personal Care Insights wrote on 24 October. The company produces Nalo using fermentation-based technology and engineered microorganisms developed by industrial biotech company Genomatica to ferment plant-based sugars.

THAILAND: German chemical and biotech giant BASF is set to expand its alkyl polyglucosides (APGs) production in Asia with a new plant at its Bangpakong site in Thailand. The expanded capacity would strengthen regional supply and help meet growing demand for sustainable surfactants, the company said on 19 November. APGs are mild secondary surfactants derived from natural, renewable feedstocks. Their non-ionic nature makes them suitable for formulation with other surfactants and they are widely used in various applications across personal care, home care, industrial & institutional cleaning, industrial formulations and agricultural markets. BASF’s APG production network includes sites in Germany, China and a new facility scheduled for startup in 2026 in Cincinnati, USA. The company’s Care Chemicals division offers a range of ingredients for personal care, home care, industrial & institutional cleaning and technical applications. Its portfolio includes surfactants, emulsifiers, polymers, emollients, chelating agents, cosmetic active ingredients and UV filters.

material had been produced at an integrated refining facility and the company had plans for a commercial-scale manufacturing plant, with potential sites being considered in US states where the necessary feedstocks were available, said company CEO John Gugel. Future Origins was founded in 2022 by Geno, Unilever, Kao and L’Oréal to commercialise and manufacture high-volume sustainable ingredients for surfactants.

Glycerol converted into bio-derived solvent

Photo: Adobe Stock

IN BRIEF

Nalo could be utilised as an alternative to the C-12/C14 fatty alcohols commonly used to produce surfactants, the Personal Care Insights report said. Future Origins said it would source locally-grown, plant-based feedstocks that offered greater traceability and a lower carbon footprint than the current C-12/C14 fatty alcohols used across the personal and home care industry. To date, more than 10 tonnes of in-spec

Crude glycerol is a by-product of biodiesel production

Researchers at Loughborough University, UK, have developed a process to convert crude glycerol – a by-product of the biodiesel industry – into a bio-derived solvent. According to the R3V tech team, every tonne of biodiesel currently produced results in around 100kg of crude

glycerol, which is difficult to recycle as it is contaminated with leftover chemicals and impurities from fuel production. As a result, most biodiesel producers sold it cheaply to companies for refining into a material often used to produce solketal – a bio-solvent and fuel additive with an

estimated global market value of US$78bn. R3V Tech said its electrochemical process would enable biodiesel producers to convert crude glycerol directly into solketal on site. The process filters crude glycerol and mixes it into a prepared solution, which is then saturated with carbon dioxide. The mixture is drawn through a reactor, where electricity drives a chemical reaction that transforms the waste material into solketal, which is collected in liquid form. The solketal solvent could be used in the pharmaceutical, cosmetic and industrial sectors, and as a fuel additive, the 13 October report on the university’s website said.

Epoxidised cottonseed oil for textile finishes

A US research team has been exploring the use of epoxidised cottonseed oil (ECSO) in textile finishes as an alternative to current finishing agents based on formaldehyde or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), Chemistry World wrote. “Formaldehyde is toxic, particularly in large quantities and, with exposure over time, it is a carcinogen as well,’ said Taylor Kanipe, US North Carolina State University student, who conducted the study. Formaldehyde-based resins – which easily bind to cotton’s cellulose fibres – are typically used for wrinkle-resistant textile finishes, while other fabric finishes used to provide water resistance traditionally use PFAS. However, these substances were persistent in the environment and linked to several serious health conditions,

12 OFI – JANUARY 2026

the 1 September report said. With ECSO, molecules bonded strongly to each other, forming a hydrophobic polymer that repelled water. They also created molecular bridges between the cellulose fibres, which helped make the material resistant to wrinkling, Kanipe explained. To determine the finished fabric’s water repellent qualities, the researchers used a high-speed camera to measure the contact angle at which water droplets interacted with the cotton surface. Fabric treated with ECSO showed a contact angle of 125° – signalling a significant increase in water-repelling ability, Chemistry World wrote. The team’s next aim would be to develop a finishing process based on an emulsion of the epoxidised oil in water, the report said. u

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Avantium signs plant-based polymer deal with packaging firm Logoplaste Renewable and circular polymer materials company Avantium has signed a capacity agreement for its plant-based, recyclable polyethylene furanoate (PEF) polymer with global packing manufacturer Logoplaste Consultores Técnicos (Logoplaste). As part of the collaboration, the companies would work together as strategic partners within the Bottle Collective, a consortium set up to develop recyclable fibre-based bottles, Avantium said on 11 November. Under the capacity reservation agreement, Avantium would supply Logoplaste with its releaf PEF plastic, which can be used in a wide range of packaging applications including food, drinks and personal care products. Produced using the Avantium’s YXY Technology from plants or agricultural, forestry and textile waste, use of the product results in lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) compared to traditional fossil-based plastics, according to the company. The agreement strengthened the partnership between the two companies and supported the joint development of nextgeneration packaging solutions, Avantium said. Logoplaste chief technology officer Paulo Correia said by securing future volumes of Avantium’s releaf, the company would be able to develop a wide range of packaging solutions. Netherlands-based Avantium produces renewable and circular polymer materials. Its YXY Technology catalytically converts plant-based sugars into furandicarboxylic acid (FDCA) for use in the production of recyclable PEF polymer. After demonstrating the YXY Technology at its Geleen pilot plant, the company is in the process of starting a commercial plant for FDCA in Delfzijl. Logoplaste produces packaging for a range of sectors, including food and drink, pharmaceuticals, home and personal care. www.ofimagazine.com

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OFI – JANUARY 2026

BIOTECH NEWS

Bayer sues AIG over Roundup legal costs Global chemical giant Bayer is suing insurance giant American International Group (AIG), alleging its policies should have helped cover its lawsuit costs surrounding its Roundup glyphosate-based weedkiller, Insurance News wrote on 4 December. “More than 56,000 lawsuits have been filed against Monsanto by more than 149,000 plaintiffs,” the suit said. Approximately 50,000 of those lawsuits remained pending and thousands of additional law-

USA: US production of non-genetically modified (GM) soyabeans for the food sector remained stable over the past year, according to data from the US Soybean Export Council (USSEC). In 2025, non-GM soyabeans designated for food use were planted on 890,308ha, with 675,825ha produced under contract, the 20 October report said. Non-GM soyabeans represent 2% of all soyabeans produced in the USA, almost unchanged from 2024, according to the USSEC report that expanded on US Department of Agriculture data. For farmers growing nonGM soyabeans under contract, their share of non-GM acres dedicated to soyabeans for food use increased from 65% in 2024 to 67% in 2025, the report said. Exports continued to drive the US non-GM soyabean market for the food sector, with varieties grown primarily for traditional Asian soya foods, the USSEC said. The top uses of US-grown soyabeans for food use included tofu (41% of planted area), soya milk (21%), natto (14%), miso (9%) and soya sauce (6%), the report said. Although Japan, Korea and Taiwan remained the top export markets, demand was also rising from other Southeast Asia countries.

macology (RTP) had retracted a paper from 2000 that concluded that the herbicide glyphosate was safe for humans after a scientist and historian raised concerns that the study’s authors had not disclosed that Monsanto – the original producer of Roundup – had paid them for their work, Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) reported on 5 December. Monsanto employees had also played an undisclosed key role in drafting the paper, the report said.

Pakistan’s move to allow GE canola welcomed

Photo: Adobe Stock

IN BRIEF

suits may still be filed against. Bayer has alleged that AIG and its subsidiaries had refused “to honour their contractual obligations to provide insurance coverage for the lawsuits” against Monsanto, the brand owner of Roundup which Bayer acquired for US$63bn in 2018. Since 2020, Bayer has paid more than US$10bn to settle cases involving Roundup, according to the Insurance News report. ▪ The journal Regulatory Toxicology and Phar-

The Pakistan government’s move to allow canola imports that may contain genetically modified (GM) material has been welcomed by grain and oilseed associations in Australia and Canada – among the leading global producers and exporters of the oilseed, World Grain wrote on 10 November. Pakistan had purchased

as much as 1.35M tonnes/ year of Canadian canola, with annual imports averaging 810,000 tonnes between 2015-2020, Moose Jaw Today wrote on 10 November. However, in late 2022, the country began requiring import licences for of GM crops. In late 2023, Pakistan’s federal cabinet approved

amendments to its biosafety rules to support the import of GM crops for food, feed and processing. The registration process was initiated in 2024. With Canada currently excluded from the Chinese market – which bought 5.86M tonnes of canola in 2024 – Pakistan’s move was welcomed by national associations. It was also welcomed by Grain Trade Australia (GTA) and the Australian Oilseeds Federation. “The Pakistan market has tracked at just over half a million tonnes annually over the past five years,” GTA CEO Pat O’Shannassy said. “This new market access effectively opens Pakistan to a larger pool of Australian supply.”

Record number of Argentine GM approvals The Argentine government approved a record number of genetically modified (GM) plants in late 2024 and 2025, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Thirteen new genetically engineered (GE) events – one cotton, three soyabeans and nine corn – were approved in the period, the USDA’s 8 December ‘Argentina: Biotechnology and Other New Production Technologies Annual’ said. “Processing times seem to have improved, with a record number of commercial approvals for GM plants,” the USDA said. With approximately 25M ha of genetically engineered (GE) soyabeans, corn, cotton and wheat planted, Argentina is the third largest grower of GE crops in the world after the USA and Brazil, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service

14 OFI – JANUARY 2026

Global Agricultural Information Network report. A total of 91 biotech crop events were approved for production and commercialisation, including 25 for soyabeans. Commercial adoption of GE crops started in 1996 with the introduction of herbicide-tolerant soyabeans and, since then, there had been unprecedented growth in GE planted area, the report said. To date, 100% of soyabeans, 99% of corn and 100% of cotton planted in Argentina are genetically engineered, according to USDA data. GM soyabeans covered almost all the estimated 16.5M ha of soyabean planted area in 2025/2026. In addition, new technological advances had led to increased second soyabean crop planting, allowing soyabeans to be planted following wheat.

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TRANSPORT NEWS SOUTHEAST ASIA: Southeast Asia could become a key feedstock player in the global shift towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, a 21 October New Straits Times report quoted International Air Transport Association (IATA) director general Willie Walsh as saying. Walsh said Asia would play a world leading role in the transition to net zero by 2050. According to IATA’s ‘Global Feedstock Assessment for SAF Production – Outlook to 2050’ report, the world could produce up to 400M tonnes of SAF by 2050, a major increase from the estimated 2M tonnes in 2025 but still below the 500M tonnes required for the industry to reach net zero carbon emissions. The IATA report highlighted Southeast Asia as one of the most promising regions for feedstock availability due to its agricultural residues, palm oil mill effluent (POME) and municipal solid waste that could be processed into SAF. Asean nations such as Indonesia and Malaysia alongside China - could supply about 240M tonnes, which would be 15% of total global biomass feedstock for SAF by 2050.

US suspends port fees on Chinese-built cargo ships Photo: Adobe Stock

IN BRIEF

The USA has suspended port fees on China-built cargo ships docking at American ports for one year, FreightWaves reported on 10 November. Officially announced on 9 November by the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the suspension came days after the authority gave the public one day to submit comments on the proposal, the 10 November report said. The port fees took effect on 14 October

and were introduced following an investigation started under the Biden administration that claimed China used unfair trade practices and other advantages to build a dominant position in shipbuilding, FreightWaves wrote. Vessels built at Chinese shipyards docking at US ports were charged US$50/tonne for each voyage, meaning large ships could face millions of dollars in fees for a typical rotation. China had also dropped retaliatory port fees on US-flagged ships, part of a wide-ranging trade agreement reached during a meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping in South Korea in October, the report said. The fees had led some shipping lines to reconfigure US services, shuffling port rotations and shifting tonnage out of some voyages to reduce the financial impact, while other shipping companies had seen the departure of US directors as China’s charges penalised carriers with American ownership stakes, FreightWaves wrote.

Peninsula expands storage at Rotterdam Global marine energy supplier Peninsula is expanding its biofuel storage capacity at the Port of Rotterdam with the opening of a new storage and blending facility at Chane Terminal. The expansion would strengthen Peninsula’s operational capabilities in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region, the company said on 17 November. Following the first phase of the development, Peninsula’s Chane Terminal would feature nine new tanks with a total capacity of 30,000m³ for biofuel blending and storage. Infrastructure at the site included three jetties

and seven berths for barges up to 135m and a jetty for seagoing vessels to ensure inter-terminal transfers (ITT) with major oil companies. As part of the second phase of the expansion, eight additional tanks would come online in January 2026, boosting total capacity to 110,000 m³. Peninsula said the new set-up would allow it to blend any biofuel grade, from B5 to B100. Working within a global network of 16 ports, Peninsula supplies and resells marine fuel and also provides a range of marine services, including dedicated barging facilities.

Houthis declare halt to attacks on vessels in Red Sea Houthi rebels signalled that they had stopped their attacks on Red Sea shipping “for now” while the latest ceasefire in Gaza held, in a letter to Qassam Brigades (the armed wing of Hamas), on 11 November. The Yemeni militant group’s campaign against Israel and Israel-supporting countries in the Red Sea-Suez Canal route had caused two years of disruption to global maritime trade, forcing longer voyages around the Horn of Africa. It began targeting vessels shortly after Hamas’ terrorist attacks in Israel on 6 October 2023.

The Houthis’ declaration comes a month after the latest ceasefire in Gaza came into effect on 10 October. Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority (SCA) chairman Ossama Rabiee met with representatives of 20 shipping lines and agencies on 4 November to discuss the latest developments in the Red Sea, FreightWaves reported on 10 November. The country is looking to recover from severe double-digit declines in Suez Canal toll revenues following the Houthi attacks, according to the report. Toll revenues plunged as much as 60%

16 OFI – JANUARY 2026

in 2024 to US$4.2bn-US$4.25bn after a record US$10.25bn the previous year. In a press release, Rabiee was quoted as saying the October Gaza ceasefire talks had helped calm tensions. Revenue improved in first quarter 2025 to US$899M, a gain of more than 16% from the same 2024 period, FreightWaves wrote. Suez Canal traffic had improved, with July-October vessel transits totalling 4,405 vessels and total shipments of 185M tonnes, compared to 4,332 vessels and 167.6M tonnes the previous year.

UNITING INDUSTRY, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 21-23 September 2026, Amsterdam, the Netherlands www.ofimagazine.com/ofi-international-2026

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DIARY OF EVENTS 29 January 2026 International Rendering Symposium, International Production & Processing Expo (IPPE) Atlanta, Georgia, USA www.ippexpo.org/education-programs

The 37th Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference & Exhibition

3-4 February 2026 Sensory Workshop – Olive and Vegetable Oils (DGF) Fulda, Germany https://veranstaltungen.gdch.de/ microsite/index.cfm?l=11910&sp_id=1 9-11 February 2026 37th Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference & Exhibition (POC2026) Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia www.pocmalaysia.com/#about 2-4 March 2026 Sustainable Aviation Futures LATAM Congress Grand Hyatt Hotel São Paulo, Brazil www.safcongresslatam.com 14-17 March 2026 NIOP 92nd Annual Convention Westin Kierland Resort & Spa Scottsdale, Arizona, USA https://niop.org/annual-convention/ 13-15 April 2026 Argus Biofuels and Feedstocks Asia Conference Singapore www.argusmedia.com/en/events/ conferences/biofuels-and-feedstocksasia-conference 22-23 April 2026 24th International Conference Black Sea Grain Kyiv Kyiv, Ukraine https://ukragroconsult.com/en/ conference/black-sea-grain-kyiv-2026/ 23-24 April 2026 EuroGrainExchange Bucharest, Romania https://eurograinevents.com/ 3-6 May 2026 AOCS Annual Meeting & Expo Hyatt Regency New Orleans, USA www.aocs.org/event/2026-aocs-annualmeeting-expo/ www.ofimagazine.com

Join the global community of palm and edible oils professionals at the 37th Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference & Exhibition (POC2026) hosted by Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. The event will take place from 9–11 February 2026 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. POC2026 offers a prime opportunity for networking and serves as a platform for indepth discussions on supply and demand trends across major edible oils. Participants will gain the latest market insights, price forecasts and explore potential trade opportunities. Leverage this exclusive event to engage with leading industry figures, investors and key decision-makers. Build mean-

ingful partnerships and collaborations to strengthen your business footprint and contribute to the future direction of the industry. Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bursa Malaysia Berhad which provides, operates and maintains a futures and options exchange. Bursa Malaysia offers the most liquid and successful Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) contract in the world, consolidating Malaysia’s position as the global centre for palm oil price discovery.

27-30 May 2026

21-23 September 2026

24th European Fat Processors and Renderers Association (EFPRA) Congress Tenerife, Spain https://efpra.eu/events/

OFI International 2026 Amsterdam Congress Centre @ Park Inn by Radisson, Amsterdam City West, the Netherlands www.ofimagazine.com/ ofi-international-2026

9-10 June 2026 International Grains Conference (IGC) IET London, UK https://www.igc.int/en/conference/ confhome.aspx

For further enquiries, please contact: Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Berhad E-mail: poc@bursamalaysia.com Website: www.pocmalaysia.com

12-14 October 2026

Oleofuels 2026 Seville, Spain www.wplgroup.com/aci/event/oleofuels

6th International Symposium on Lipid Oxidation and Antioxidants Wageningen, The Netherlands https://eurofedlipid.org/6th-internationalsymposium-on-lipid-oxidation-andantioxidants/

15-17 June 2026

20-25 October 2026

Sustainable Aviation Futures Congress Amsterdam, Netherlands www.safcongress.com

2026 North American Renderers Association (NARA) Annual Convention Loews Ventana Canyon, Tucson, Arizona, USA https://nara.org/about-us/events/

10-11 June 2026

18-19 June 2026 11th International Symposium on Deep Frying Hamburg, Germany https://eurofedlipid.org/11thinternational-symposium-on-deep-frying/

For a full events list, visit: www.ofimagazine.com Information subject to change

OFI – JANUARY 2026

Uniting Industry, Science & Technology Uniting leading voices across the Dutch, European, and global oils and fats community.

SAVE THE DATE!

21-23 September 2026 Amsterdam Congress Centre @ Park Inn by Radisson, Amsterdam City West, the Netherlands

For all sponsorship and exhibition enquiries, please contact

About this event

Mark Winthrop-Wallace

The event will feature the:

Director, OFI Portfolio +44 1737 855114 markww@quartzltd.com

• OFI Commercial/Technical conference – ‘Responding to Market Demands’

For any other enquiries, please contact

Valerie Amegatcher ValerieAmegatcher@quartzltd.com

• ‘Emerging and Persistent Contaminants in Oils and Fats – Challenges and Innovations’ conference, organised by the German Society for Fat Science (DGF) • OFI two-day exhibition of suppliers to the oils and fats industry

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ORGANISED BY

SUPPORTING PARTNERS

Visit the website to stay up-to-date at www.ofimagazine.com/ofi-international-2026

OFI INTERNATIONAL 2026 EVENT

Following on from the success of OFI International 2024 in Rotterdam, OFI International 2026 is returning to the Netherlands this year, to the key city and port of Amsterdam. Brought to you from the same team behind the global magazine, Oils & Fats International (OFI), OFI International 2026 will be held on 21-23 September at the Amsterdam Congress Centre @ Park Inn by Radisson, Amsterdam City West. OFI International 2026 will bring together major players across the Dutch, European and global oils and fats community under one roof. The event will feature the: • OFI Commercial/Technical Conference – ‘Responding to Market Demands’ • ‘Emerging and Persistent Contaminants in Oils and Fats – Challenges and Innovations’ Conference, organised by the German Society for Fat Science (DGF) • OFI two-day exhibition of suppliers to the oils and fats industry

Conferences

The two-day OFI Commercial/Technical conference presents updates on the key challenges currently facing the oils and fats industry and the solutions being offered by experts and suppliers in areas such as sustainability, traceability, biofuels/ renewable diesel/sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), AI, processing and refining. The ‘Emerging and Persistent Contaminants in Oils and Fats – Challenges and Innovations’ conference will spotlight one of the most pressing issues for the oils and fats industry – contaminant management and mitigation. As analytical methods become more sensitive and global regulations tighten, the list of substances under scrutiny continues to expand. This conference, organised by the German Society for Fat Science (DGF), will bring together leading experts from research, regulatory agencies and industry to discuss both emerging contaminants, such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and process-related compounds, as well as ongoing challenges including mineral oil hydrocarbons (MOH), 3-MCPD and glycidyl esters. Participants can expect insights into the www.ofimagazine.com

OFI International 2026 comes to Amsterdam latest scientific findings, risk assessment approaches and innovative mitigation strategies that support compliance and consumer safety. The discussion will also explore how evolving legislation and consumer expectations are shaping the future of contaminant control in fats and oils.

Dutch oils and fats industry

The Netherlands is a major hub for oils and fats, with high import volumes of oilseeds and crude/tropical oils, and a strong infrastructure for refining, storage and exports. The sector includes oilseed crushing, vegetable oil refining & processing, the food sector, oleochemicals, animal fats, and biodiesel/renewable diesel and SAF. The ports of Rotterdam and Amsterdam both play key roles for imports, storage, processing and onward distribution throughout Europe. Because of its port infrastructure, logistic assets (tank terminals, storage, good connections to inland transport) and an established processing base, the Netherlands acts as a gateway to Europe for oils and fats. The Netherlands is also a centre for international trade with robust support services such as commodity trading firms, inspection and certification bodies, laboratories, and banks and insurers specialising in commodity finance and risk management. About 80% of Dutch production is exported and as one of the largest EU importers of several deforestation-linked commodities like palm and soyabean oils, the country plays a key leadership role in policies on deforestation – such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) – traceability and sustainability, which influence both trade flows and company behaviour. OFI International 2026 will be the meeting point bridging industry, science and technology. Join us in Amsterdam

to stay ahead of the curve and engage in forward-looking dialogue on ensuring the safety, quality, traceabililty and sustainability of oils and fats in a complex global market. For further information, go to www. ofimagazine.com/ofi-international-2026

Supporting partners OFI International 2026 is supported by: • The Netherlands Oils and Fats Industry (MVO) represents 95% of Dutch companies producing, processing and trading vegetable oils and animal fats. • NOFOTA (Netherlands Oils, Fats and Oilseeds Trade Association) is the Dutch umbrella organisation of companies connected to the production, consumption and trade of vegetable and animal oils and fats, oilseeds and their derivatives. The association draws up standard contracts, which are used internationally, and provides a mechanism for the settlement of disputes by its arbitration institute. • The German Society for Fat Science (DGF) is dedicated to advancing lipid science and technology through collaboration across scientific, medical, technological, agricultural and ecological fields. It promotes fundamental and applied research, supports professional education and training, and provides independent expertise. • FOSFA International is a trade federation providing supporting services and standard contracts for transparent free trade and shipping in oils, oilseeds and fats. • Euro Fed Lipid (EFL) is a federation of 11 scientific associations concerned with lipids, fats and oils. Its mission is the furthering of lipid science and technology and the cooperation and exchange of ideas between scientists and technologists at a European level. OFI – JANUARY 2026

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REVIEW

Oil still on choppy waters

20 OFI – JANUARY 2026

Figure 2: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures, US$/bushel Soyabean oil’s recovery has been less impressive, however, moving from around 53-57c/lb in July to below 48.40c/lb in September and struggling to maintain much more than 51c/lb since. This reversal has been influenced by uncertainty over US forward policy on biofuels, a situation underlined by recent declines in the price of crude mineral oil in the wake of OPEC supply increases and the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. Regarding US biofuel policies, another issue is whether large US refiners will have to make up for waivers that small refiners have received from blending mandates. The outcome should affect how much soyabean and other vegetable oils are

Source: John Buckley

Figure 1: Brazil and Argentina soyabean exports (million tonnes)

Source: John Buckley

Geopolitical instability and competition from biofuel users continued to send waves through vegetable oil markets in the latter half of 2025. Prices of market leaders like palm, soyabean, rapeseed and sunflower oils initially bounced off summer lows but forward charts look mixed as the trade tries to adapt to the ‘new normals,’ suggesting another choppy year ahead. With weather generally kind for many of the major oil crops, volatility has come mainly from wild cards on the demand side of the market. Chicago soyabean futures fell to US$9.60s/bushel levels in mid 2025 – their cheapest since late 2024 – as US exporters faced an unprecedented collapse in sales to main customer China, retaliating to punitive tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Since these were drastically eased in August, Chinese business has begun to return. However, US markets still have some difficulty believing the pledges will all come to pass (12M tonnes of Chinese purchases by February 2026 and 25M annually for the next three years). Still, prices have recovered sharply, recently hitting US$11.60s/bushel. The rally was also aided by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reducing its estimate of 2025’s average US soyabean yield from 53.5 bushel/acre to 53 bushel/acre, taking the crop down to 115.8M tonnes, about 3M tonnes less than 2024. However, in global terms, that adjustment appears likely to be far outweighed by strong South American crops and forecasts that further large harvests in 2025/26 will keep that region a heavy export rival in the year ahead (see Figure 1, above right). Brazil’s output has recently been forecast at around 177.5-180M tonnes, against the previous crop of 169M tonnes. Argentina’s production has been projected at around 48-50M tonnes, repeating its larger-than-normal crops seen in its previous two seasons.

Million tonnes

While prices of major oils bounced back from 2025 mid-year lows, the outlook for 2026 looks mixed John Buckley

used in biofuels. The soya complex remained rather turbulent as OFI went to press. Forward soyabean price forecasts from the USDA have improved a little but Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures do not yet forecast a sustained recovery (see Figure 2 above). The key demand factor of reviving US sales to China has been muddled by reports that the key customer probably overbought Latin American soyabeans when its boycott on imports from the USA was causing fears of shortages among its own crushers. However, as it re-instated US purchases in November, there was even talk of a glut on the Chinese market. Either way, many u www.ofimagazine.com

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OFI – JANUARY 2026

Source: John Buckley

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REVIEW

Figure 3: Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures (US$ equivalent), 2015 to present

plantations, alleging they were operating without proper licences and breaking environmental laws. For the first 10 months of 2025, Indonesian exports had been performing strongly, advancing by almost 8% on the volume shipped in the same 2024 period. Palm oil was also being influenced late last year by severe flooding in some key producing areas, possibly exacerbating the usual winter downturn in yields and harvest. Will this combination encourage palm oil prices to rise again? No clear trend is yet emerging. In November, India actually increased its palm oil imports and cut back dramatically on soyabean and sunflower oils as prices of these returned to steep premiums of US$100 and US$200/tonne respectively over palm oil. Meanwhile, palm oil imports of world number two vegetable oil buyer China reportedly eased in the year to-date, while EU demand also fell. Clearly, relative pricing against soft oils is likely to remain a live issue going forward. In early December 2025, palm oil prices were also being held in check by forecasts that Malaysia’s end of November stocks could increase to a six-and-a-half year high as exports slowed amid strong monthly production.

Annual averages to 2024, then monthly Figure 4: Vegetable oil component of FAO Food Price Index u analysts appear to think China is now locked into buying much larger amounts. That suggests the USA may yet rescue reasonable seasonal sales if it can keep the pace up beyond its normal maximum (post-harvest) sales period (before the next big Latin American crop starts to arrive in first quarter 2026). How this will affect the economics of US soyabean planting is an open question. Much will depend too on how soya’s main rival for land – maize – performs in the weeks and months ahead. As we went to press, the CBOT price of the latter had improved too by about 15% since its summer nadir, mainly due to a strong export revival, although US farmers still have a massive crop to dispose of. Planting weather will also play a part in crop choices but at least there seems more likelihood now that US farmers will not abandon soyabean in their droves 22 OFI – JANUARY 2026

Source: John Buckley

Canola

because of the earlier Chinese boycott. Soyabeans are also drawing some support from strong US domestic crushing reaching 227.65M bushels in October, a record for any month.

Palm oil

Weaker crude energy prices may also give some pause for thought to leading palm oil producer Indonesia’s plans to significantly raise its biodiesel blend of palm oil to as much as 50%, leaving significantly less for its traditional food oil customers. Some analysts think this will cause palm oil prices to rally strongly this year. At the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) in November, leading analysts suggested potential increases of 20-30% or more over the next six months. Dealers also noted that the sector had been in upheaval after Indonesia’s military started seizing oil palm

Surprising some observers amid depressed Canadian export sales, the near price of the benchmark Winnipeg futures market rallied off its October lows below C$620/ tonne to levels around C$650/tonne. In the absence of former key buyer China, analysts say price direction will continue to pivot on the success of attempts to improve exports to other buyers. The Canadian market, with its ambitious plans to raise crush for biodiesel exports, also wants more clarity on US biofuel policy. Canola demand from the Canadian domestic crushing sector has been solid, achieving throughput of 3.18M tonnes for the season to date (as of 9 November). The main problem remains China’s 76% tariff on Canadian canola, effectively blocking trade to this former top customer. Canada had hoped some of its other markets might help fill the gap. However, the EU has been cutting imports of canola and other oilseeds in 2025 following a good domestic crop and signs of slowing demand from its biofuel sector. From 1 July to mid-November 2025, EU rapeseed imports fell 42% to just 1.38M tonnes, the bulk arriving from Ukraine and other parts of Eastern Europe. Statistics Canada’s early December www.ofimagazine.com

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REVIEW canola crop update for 2025/26 was larger than expected at 21.8M tonnes, a new record high and up more than 13% on the previous year. Hot on the heels of that, the USDA raised its estimates for Russian and Australian rapeseed crops, putting its world output forecast up by 3M tonnes to 95.3M tonnes against last season’s 86M tonnes.

Sunflowerseed

Despite a rebound in 2025 crops from 2024’s depleted levels, sunflower oil has been firming again recently on tighter than expected supplies within the Black Sea region and Europe. Crude (unrefined) sunflower oil futures recently exceeded US$1,430/tonne, rebounding from an eight-month low of US$1,133/ tonne in July 2025, largely attributed to constraints on East European exports amid geopolitical disruptions. Ukraine’s exports were reported to be running well below those of recent seasons after a poor summer and shipping disruptions. Top producer Russia also raised its export duties from October onward and reduced available volumes. On top of that, Europe’s dry summer trimmed its own sunflower crop and crush

volumes below forecast levels, reducing oil supply.

Future prospects

The Food and Agriculture Organization monthly price index recently nudged three-year highs, stirred by concerns that Indonesian biodiesel expansion and erratic Asian weather would reduce palm oil exports for food use. (see Figure 4, opposite page). However, the trend turned more bearish in November when the index reversed by some 2.6% to a five-month low as palm, rapeseed and sunflower oils backtracked, outweighing relatively firmer soyabean oil. Palm oil prices softened on higher-thanexpected Malaysian output, rapeseed oil on more positive global production prospects and sunflower oil with the seasonal rise in supply from the Black Sea region. Soyabean oil drew support from firm biodiesel demand, especially in Brazil, despite the bearish impact of weaker crude oil on the vegetable oil sector. Looking to the futures markets for guidance, US crude soyabean oil was recently trading at similar levels in mid-2026 to those prevailing now, and indicated even cheaper by mid-2027,

based on presumed adequate global supplies. However, this market may not yet reflect potential for palm to stir things up. The recent US government shutdown left the markets more in the hands of speculators than firm data for almost two months. The return of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report in November offered a few updates including: US soyabean exports in 2025/26 were trimmed by 1.36M tonnes to 44.5M tonnes, amid higher shipments from Brazil and Argentina, taking advantage of China’s resumed purchases during the USA’s peak foreign sales season. World oilseed production for 2025/26 was also trimmed, mainly for soyabean and sunflowerseed but partly offset by higher rapeseed and cottonseed production. Sunflowerseed’s 1M tonne cut was due to lower Ukraine, Russia, EU and Turkey production outweighing higher Argentine output. Global rapeseed production was raised by 1.3M tonnes due to better EU, Australian, Ukrainian and UK figures. ● John Buckley is OFI’s market correspondent

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OFI – JANUARY 2026

PALM OIL Indonesia’s land seizures and B50 biodiesel blending policy — along with energy, biofuel and decarbonisation strategies worldwide — are driving the palm oil market Serena Lim Trade, energy and Indonesia’s domestic policies will be the three main drivers shaping palm and other edible oil markets this year, the International Palm Oil Congress and Exhibition (PIPOC 2025) held on 16-18 November heard. Dr Sathia Varqa, senior analyst with Fastmarkets, said 2026 would be a year of policy disruption, with price trends shaped by government interventions including: • Domestic policies in Indonesia – the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil – including land seizures; its market obligation programme restricting exports before fulfilling domestic supply; and B50 palm oil biodiesel blending plan. • Trade policies such as US tariffs, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED), and anti-dumping duties. • Decarbonisation polices such as the EUDR, and biodiesel mandates in the EU, USA, Brazil and Indonesia.

Indonesian land seizure impact

Dr Varqa said Indonesia’s domestic land seizures would have an impact on palm oil production in 2026, with sales of fresh fruit bunches likely to drop. Under the policy, the government had already seized 1.7M ha of land out of a targeted 5M ha, giving control to stateowned enterprise PT Agrinas. Not all this land was palm oil plantations but assuming 1M ha of seized land was planted with oil palm and assuming a yield of 3.5 tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO)/ha, this could affect 3.5M tonnes of production because there would be less maintenance and fertilisation at the plantations. This would come at a time when the government was pursuing its domestic B50 biodiesel programme, which would create 1.5-2M tonnes/year of additional palm oil demand. Glenauk Economics managing director Julian McGill said the land seizures would not impact production immediately. The yield impact of less fertilisers took around 18 months to two years to take effect and, assuming a 10% fall in production from less fertilisation of 1M ha of land producing around 3.6M tonnes of palm 24 OFI – JANUARY 2026

Policies impact prices

oil, there would be a production fall of around 300,000 tonnes. “That’s not good but not near the figures being thrown around in the short term.”

Intervention policies

A key policy affecting the palm oil market was the EUDR, with implementation set for 30 December 2026 (see p4). Palm oil exports to the EU from Malaysia and Indonesia – both classified as ‘standard risk’ for deforestation - had been falling from a high of 6M tonnes in 2019 and this trend was likely to continue, Dr Varqa said. The EU had also appealed against the World Trade Organization decision in August supporting Indonesia’s complaints against EU duties imposed on its biodiesel exports. This meant biodiesel exports from Indonesia to the EU remained barred. The EU’s third version of its Renewable Energy Directives (REDIII) also defined palm oil as having a high risk of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC), with a phaseout of the use of palm oil in EU biofuels scheduled for 2030. “These three major polices continue to reduce palm products from Malaysia and Indonesia to the EU.”

Biodiesel mandates and B50

While palm oil production growth had mainly been stagnant, its use in the biofuels sector had grown, Dr Varqa said. In 2010, food accounted for 72% of palm oil use but this had shrunk to 55%

in 2024 (see Figure 1, p25). Palm oil use in biofuels, meanwhile had expanded from 10% to 25% in the same time period. This growth was mainly driven by biodiesel mandates, particularly in Indonesia. McGill said Jakarta’s announcement last year to increase palm oil blending in biodiesel from the current B40 to B50 was unlikely to happen due to a lack of capital and capacity (see Figure 2, p25). “Current biodiesel capacity is very tight for B40. We assume 80% utilisation (Indonesia capacity assume very high operating rates) and even with additional capacity constructed and two idle plants brought back, capacity is likely insufficient for B50,” he said. McGill said the palm oil export levy still needed to increase to fund the current B40 mandate.

Production forecast

Dr Varqa said 2025 was a good crop year for Malaysian palm oil with favourable weather, sufficient numbers of workers and good fertilisation in the previous 12 months. He forecast calendar year 2025 production at 19.65M tonnes, compared with 19.34M tonnes in 2024 and 18.55M tonnes in 2023. Production was likely to be stagnant in 2026 but exports were expected to rise from 15.8M tonnes in 2025 to 16.75M tonnes in 2026. Indonesia had experienced favourable weather in 2025 but although the replanting pace had been very slow, seed www.ofimagazine.com

20 15

Current Capacity

Prices driven by sentiment

McGill said the current palm oil market was being driven by sentiment over output and biodiesel announcements (see Figure 3, above). Prices were around MYR3,700 (US$895)/tonne in August 2024 but when Indonesia announced it was aiming for B40, prices rallied, reaching MYR5,100/ (US$1,233) tonne before Indonesia postponed its B40 plans. Unexpectedly high output and unclear biodiesel policies then pushed palm oil prices down, but the release of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) biofuel mandates and Indonesia’s announcement about B50 then led to prices rallying. “All these announcements were about things happening in the future,” McGill said. “Previously low-price periods ended through higher exports, Indonesian www.ofimagazine.com

mandate declarations and bullish EPA proposals. We are once again waiting for all three. Speculative funds are also waiting for a bullish story, reducing price volatility for now.”

Palm vs soyabean oil price

B40

Under construction for 2027

B50

McGill said export palm oil import volumes were determined by their relative price with soyabean oil in their respective markets. Europe, for example, had been buying less palm oil not because of the EUDR but because it could not afford to (see Figure 4, right). McGill said China was now an established soyabean oil exporter, due to importing a high volume of Brazilian soyabeans to avoid buying the crop from the USA at the height of their trade war. The interesting question was how China was able to crush so much soya and what it did it do with the soyabean meal. “The answer is their immensely efficient pig husbandry. The numbers and weight of Chinese pigs have increased dramatically, due to decades of work on pig genetics. “Pork prices are so low in China that it is often cheaper than vegetables, and pork demand is going up because it is so cheap. As a result, Chinese crushers are able to sell more soyabean meal.” In conclusion, McGill said high output and the lack of bullish price trigger was

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Palm oil imports Soyabean oil vs Palm oil

Figure 4: EU monthly palm oil imports & soyabean oil vs palm oil price weighing on prices. The short term impact in 2026 of Indonesian land seizures would be limited because reduced inputs took time to take effect from lack of inputs and because seized plantations may go back to the original companies to be managed. “We feel B50 for now is unlikely due to a lack of capital and capacity… Monitoring the construction of new capacity gives us an indicator of the potential (eventual) mandate. “Export volumes are seeing some improvement and palm oil price competitiveness could easily encourage more buying. Based on better export numbers, we believe Bursa Malaysia CPO third month contract prices will recover modestly to MYR4,300-4,400/tonne by first quarter 2026.” Dr Varqa forecast slightly higher prices in first quarter 2026 due to seasonally low production, at MYR4,500-4,600/tonne on the CPO futures active month contract. ● Serena Lim is the editor of OFI OFI – JANUARY 2026 25

Figures 2,3,4: Julian McGill, Glenauk Economics, PIPOC 2025

Figure 3: Daily crude palm oil 3rd month contract price, August 2024-November 2025 sales had been very high. Dr Varqa said. Production was expected to rise to 55M tonnes for 2025, up from 48M tonnes in 2024. Estimated exports in 2025 were expected to be 29M tonnes, against consumption of 25M tonnes. Global palm oil production was expected to reach 83.22M tonnes in the Oct 2025/Sept 2026 marketing year from 80.39M tonnes in 2024/25, a rise of 2.83M tonnes, Dr Varqa said.

Commencing in 2025 Inactive

Figure 2: Indonesian biodiesel capacity and mandate volumes (million kilolitres)

‘000 metric tonnes

Figure 1: Palm oil share in food and non-food applications

Source: Sathia Varqa, Fastmarkets, PIPOC 2025

PALM OIL

COCONUT OIL

Coconut prices have soared amid tight supplies caused by adverse weather and high demand for food, cosmetic and biofuel uses Ahmad Pathoni, Raghavendra Verma, Jens Kastner, Andreia Nogueira

The global coconut oil market has had to contend with adverse climatic conditions such as droughts, as well as pest attacks tightening supplies, and high demand from the food, cosmetic and biofuel sectors contributing to significant price volatility. According to the International Coconut Community (ICC), total global coconut oil production is projected to rise marginally to 3.56M tonnes in 2025, up from 3.5M tonnes in 2024, with the Philippines being the largest producer at 1.6M tonnes (44.8% market share), followed by Indonesia with 861,000 tonnes (24%) and India with 505,000 tonnes (14.2%). Global imports are expected to stay steady at 2.2M tonnes in 2025, with the EU continuing to be the largest importer with around 650,000 tonnes (24.5%), and the USA registering a 7% reduction to 460,000 tonnes (20.1%) in 2025. The ICC says coconut oil consumption is being driven by rising demand for plantbased and vegan products, the oil being a key component; renewable ingredients; natural cosmetics; and an expanding use of coconut oil in functional foods and beverages, with the global coconut oil market projected to grow from US$5.49bn in 2025 to US$7.61bn by 2029. However, the ICC and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predict reduced imports into some key markets, notably the USA, with trade being hit by the Trump administration’ ‘reciprocal’ tariffs. Import sales declines would be balanced by growing exports to China. The ICC forecasts a drop in total exports from coconut oil-producing countries from 2.6M tonnes in 2024 to 2.38M tonnes in 2025 26 OFI – JANUARY 2026

due to reduced supply and shifts in trade. Coconut oil prices are projected by the ICC to stay within the US$2,500-2,700/ tonne range in the second half of 2025 – well above the 2023 figure of about US$1,000/tonne – representing an up to 170% increase in prices over two years.

The Philippines

The last year has been tough for the Philippines’ important coconut industry. The country remains one of the top coconut producers in the world, as well as the largest coconut oil producer, but exports have been hit by poor harvests and weather. According to the United Coconut Association of the Philippines (UCAP), the country’s coconut products (of all kinds) export volume plunged by 57.6% year-onyear in August 2025 to 86,723M tonnes. All Philippines coconut export products disappointed, with coconut oil showing the steepest year-on-year decline (65.8%). While tight raw material availability caused by drought in 2024 eased, severe weather causing waterlogging and floods in 2025 hampered delivery of copra, the dried meat of coconuts, to mills for crushing. “We’re seeing strong demand globally but locally, a lot of trees are just too old to keep up; most of them only produce around 40 nuts a year, when they could be doing 60 or more if properly managed,” says Dustin Loreño, an instructor at the the College of Agriculture, Forestry and Environmental Sciences, (CAFES) at Western Philippines University, Palawan. Speaking to OFI, he adds that “El Niño [a natural climate phenomenon that affects sea temperatures and weather patterns]

Photo: Adobe Stock

Prices soar

in 2024 really dried up many areas. Even now we’re feeling the lag because, with coconuts, what happens to the tree this year affects production a year later. Then, just as the drought ended, the La Niña [a counter natural climate phenomenon to El Niño characterised by cooler sea temperatures] rains started early, and suddenly many farms turned into mud pits.” Loreño says that the Philippines government had taken action to address the impact of climate events, with the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) government agency launching a major replanting drive to plant 100M new trees by 2028, starting with 50M in 2026. The PCA is also working with University of the Philippines Los Baños and government agencies to improve fertilisation and boost productivity, including by using agricultural salt to increase nut yield per tree, adds Loreño. “But this is a long-term fix, given that a coconut tree takes around six to seven years to bear fruit. So, it doesn’t solve the income gap farmers face right now.” In the short term, because of supply shortages, the Philippines government postponed a planned increase in locallyavailable biodiesel blends from 2% to 3% “to prevent domestic coconut oil prices from rising further,” Loreño adds. Another nerve-wracking development for exporters was the announcement by the US government in July 2025 of a 20% tariff on imports from the Philippines (having initially been 17% in earlier proposals). These were soon lowered marginally to 19%, only to be scrapped altogether on 14 November. www.ofimagazine.com

COCONUT OIL The USA is a major buyer of global coconut oil and the duties saw many Philippines exporters shifting their attention to Europe, where prices had skyrocketed to nearly US$3,000/tonne, almost double 2024 prices, says Loreño.

India

There have also been price rises in India, where ageing coconut farms and increasingly adverse climatic conditions have reduced the country’s coconut production, causing coconut oil prices to triple within two years, says the Indian Coconut Development Board (CDB). According to CDB data, coconut oil prices in Kochi, for example, rose from INR1,285 (US$14.60)/tonne in September 2023 to INR3,887 (US$44.17)/tonne in July 2025. In November 2025, coconut oil in Kochi was trading slightly lower at INR3,615 (US$41.08)/tonne but were still well above levels seen two years ago. “The industry is in a big crisis as [domestic] demand is falling and consumers are shifting to other oils,” Thalath Mahamood, president of Cochin Oil Merchants Association (COMA) tells OFI. He says restaurants in Kerala state, once enthusiastic consumers of coconut oil, had completely switched to palm and sunflower oils for cooking; a major domestic hair oil company skipped coconut oil procurement in 2025; and there are reports of adulteration of coconut oil with palm oil. To manage the situation, many coconut oil merchants are demanding a ban on exports to ensure local availability and lower prices. However, there are also exporters in his association who strongly oppose such a move, Mahamood says. Despite the price volatility, India’s coconut oil exports have been steady over 2024, with shipments of 16,444 tonnes of ‘coconut refined oil and fractions’ mostly to the Middle East and Africa in the financial year ending March 2025, according to Ministry of Commerce figures. But price rises are a problem, with Mahamood blaming raw coconut traders for holding supplies to oil mills, hoping for future higher prices. Indian coconuts are also in short supply due to falling production. According to a CDB official speaking to OFI, in the financial year ending March 2025, only 20.4bn nuts were produced in India, compared to 21.37bn in the previous year. Farmers point to many factors depressing harvests: “It is due to a combination of pests, unseasonal rains, draughts, windy climatic conditions and lack of care for the [coconut] plantations,” says V J Kurian, a coconut farmer and a former senior government bureaucrat. www.ofimagazine.com

He says between 2001 and 2023, procurement prices remained stuck at INR10 ($US 0.11)/coconut, leaving little revenue for farmers to apply fertiliser or plant new trees. The price had now risen to INR20 (US$0.23/nut), but so have input costs such as labour and inputs, which will take at least two years to increase yields. Meanwhile, Mahamood is hoping for a quick fall in domestic oil prices. “By December [2025] end, they should fall to INR 2,600 (US$29.54)/tonne. Otherwise, the industry will not survive.”

Indonesia

Rising coconut oil prices are also a problem with another major producer – Indonesia is accelerating investment in downstream coconut processing, as increased nut exports to China and Malaysia tighten domestic supply and push up prices. The government is considering banning whole coconut exports to secure raw materials for domestic processors as Indonesia earns too little from raw nut shipments, said Indonesia’s Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman, speaking to Indonesian journalists in mid-November. According to the ministry, this could lift the sector’s annual export earnings far beyond the current Indonesian Rupiah IDR24tr (US$1.4bn) if more of the crop is processed into higher-value products such as coconut oil, virgin coconut oil (VCO), desiccated coconut and coconut milk. “Our plan is to stop exporting whole coconuts, which currently total 2.8M tonnes/year. Instead, we will process them into coconut milk and VCO, which can increase their value by up to one hundred times,” said Amran. The government has also approved IDR371tr (US$22.2bn) in new agricultural public investment and intends to channel a significant share to coconut processing. Replanting and nursery programmes worth IDR20tr (US$1.2bn) are also being prepared to lift productivity and secure raw materials for processors, Amran added. Strong buying from China and Malaysia has lifted demand for VCO and coconut milk, with VCO selling for about IDR145,000 (US$8.68)/kg, with many farmers shifting supply to exporters who are offering higher prices compared to domestic buyers, according to the Indonesian Coconut Processing Industry Association (HIPKI - Himpunan Industri Pengolahan Kelapa Indonesia). But with whole nut exports to China reaching US$52M in July 2025, an increase of 150% year-on-year, local processors had reported difficulties securing feedstock for desiccated coconut, coconut milk and coconut water concentrate, says the HIPKI.

Exports of crude coconut oil (CCO) did rise, generating US$226M in receipts between January and May 2025, up 57% year-on-year, according to Ministry of Trade Data. The ministry says that full-year 2024 exports totalled US$385.7M, up 17.4% year-on-year, continuing a fiveyear growth trend of 7.6% annually, with demand being driven by a shift toward natural and functional food products, particularly among younger consumers in key markets. This includes regional exports, with the Philippines emerging as Indonesia’s largest buyer of coconut oil, taking 39.8% of shipments worth US$90M in the JanuaryMay 2025 period. The Netherlands is another key market, accounting for 33.1% of shipments of Indonesian coconut oil by value (January-June 2025) although Dutchpurchased export revenues declined 8.8% in January-May 2025 year-on-year, while exports by value to Malaysia rose 120% and made up 20.8% of Indonesia’s total exports in January-June 2025. Dr Widyastutik, an industry analyst at IPB University in Bogor, tells OFI that global demand for coconut derivatives is increasing but Indonesia is not capturing the full opportunity. “Indonesia accounts for about 27% of global output [of whole coconuts], yet the industry cannot operate at full capacity because raw materials are not available when needed,” she says. “Industrial utilisation is usually only between 40-55%.” Dr Widyastutik attributes this to ageing trees, slow replanting and low productivity, which has stagnated at around 1.1 tonnes/ha, while production has declined for more than a decade. “More than 95% of plantations are managed by smallholders who face limited access to high quality planting material and good agricultural practices,” she says. Dr Widyastutik adds that the pattern of processing also limited value addition. Nearly half of mature coconuts are channelled to copra, with crude coconut oil accounting for some 82% of coconut oil exports, and whole virgin coconut oil comprising less than 5%. Large areas of unproductive land and labour shortages are further constraints: “Around 378,000ha are considered damaged or unproductive. Annual replanting covers only a small fraction of what is needed,” she says, adding that labour scarcity is now a real concern because farmers have fewer trained climbers able to harvest nuts. ● Ahmad Pathoni in Jakarta, Raghavendra Verma in Delhi, and Jens Kastner and Andreia Nogueira write for International News Services, UK OFI – JANUARY 2026

RENDERING/AQUACULTURE

Moving away from fish oil & meal

Photo: Adobe Stock

As global aquaculture expands, plant-based proteins and oils are replacing fish meal and oil as aquafeed ingredients Hans Boon, Serena Lim

• Carbohydrates (starch and sugars) for binding, expansion and energy • Vitamins & minerals: Micro-nutrients that play a vital role in many processes • Additives: Antioxidants, digestion enhancers, immunostimulants etc

Fish meal and oil are traditionally important aquafeed ingredients due to their high density of essential nutrients that fish and shrimp need. Global aquaculture has been expanding at a rate of 4%-6%/year over the last decade but as the availability of marine aquafeed ingredients is finite, an overreliance on fish meal and oil would be problematic for continued expansion. Around two-thirds of fish meal and oil come from wild-caught forage fish like anchovies, sardines, sandeel and menhaden, which serve as food for larger fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Most industrial fishing industries are well managed to prevent overfishing, which could threaten long-term sustainability, ocean diversity, as well as reducing food for human consumption.

species has been falling over the last 30 years and has shifted away from marinebased ingredients (see Figure 1, following page). According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistics (FishstatJ, 2025), in 2023 global aquaculture production of finfish and crustaceans (shrimps etc) totalled 77.5M tonnes with a value of US$300bn. Whiteleg shrimp production was 7.4M tonnes (9.5% in volume and 14.6% in value), Atlantic salmon production totalled 2.7M tonnes (3.4% in volume and 7% in value). Of Nile Tilapia, 5.2M tonnes was produced in aquaculture (6.7% in volume and 3.7% in value). In 1990, fish meal comprised 59% of aquafeed and fish oil 24%, according to Mowi’s 2024 ‘Salmon Farming Industry Handbook’ (see Figure 2, following page). Norwegian salmon feeds comprised 57% vegetable raw material and only 30% marine origin raw materials (17% fish meal and 13% fish oil) while in Chile salmon feed contains 51% vegetable meals and oils, 15% avian meals and 14% marine origin materials (4% fish meal and 10% fish oil) (see Figure 2, following page).

Shift to vegetable raw materials

Aquafeed ingredients

Animal origin sources of protein for aquafeed include fish meal, salmon meal, blood and hemoglobin meal, poultry by-products meal, and hydrolised feather meal. Each ingredient has both positive and negative aspects. Fish and salmon meal have a high protein content of around 60-72% and a good amino acid profile but negative u

Globally, there is a wide range of farmed fish species, each with specific requirements. Carp is the largest group of farmed fish by volume, followed by nile tilapia, catfish (particularly in Asia) and salmonids (mostly Altantic salmon plus other species like rainbow trout). The use of fish meal in feed for these www.ofimagazine.com

Aquafeed formulators must provide a blend of protein, lipids, carbohydrates, vitamins, minerals and additives to meet the nutritional requirements of farmed fish. The key ones are: • Protein: Essential amino acids, digestible protein energy • Lipids: Essential fatty acids, energy

The most important nutritional aspects of raw materials used in feeds include protein content, amino acid profile, digestibility and the content of other nutrients such as oils, minerals, vitamins and pigments, including carotenoids. Other aspects of feed ingredients include freshness; oxidative status and stability; anti-nutritional factors; biological stability (taking into account mycotoxins, biogenic amines, volatile nitrogen); undesirable substances such as heavy metals, antimicrobial residues and pesticides; and palatability. For feed formulators, sustainability and availability and price of ingredients are also important factors. Supermarkets and consumers are increasingly interested in the sourcing of products and the carbon footprint of fish production, and question why fish ingredients are used to produce fish.

Protein sources in aquafeed

OFI – JANUARY 2026 29

RENDERING/AQUACULTURE

Global 1990

Norway 2023

Chile 2023 Other raw materials Vegetable meal Vegetable oil Fish meal Fish oil Avian meal

Mowi 2024 Salmon Farming Industry Handbook

Figure 2: Aquafeed dependence on marine, vegetable and avian ingredients u aspects include their high price and sustainability concerns. The positive aspects of blood and hemoglobin meal – which originates from swine or poultry slaughterhouses – are their high protein content of some 90%, amino acid profile, digestibility, sustainability and price. However, these meals have a high iron content which promotes oxidation. Poultry by-products have a good price, protein (60-75%) and phosphorous content, amino acid profile and are sustainable. However, they have a high ash

content and variable quality sometimes, although generally have an acceptable quality nowadays depending on origin. Hydrolysed feather meal, which originate mostly from chicken feathers, has a high protein content of 85% and is an affordable ingredient, although it has variable digestibility, a less ideal amino acid profile and may contain undesirable substances, such as those controlling pests. Plant sources of protein include oilseed meals from crops such as soyabean, rapeseed, linseed and sunflower; faba beans, vital wheat gluten, corn gluten

Table 1: Oil sources of aquafeed - positive, variable/neutral and negative aspects 30 OFI – JANUARY 2026

Source: Aquaculture Experience

Figure 1: Reduction of fish meal inclusion (%) in aquafeed for different species groups

Source: Tantikki, 2014

projected

meal, soyabean protein concentrate (SPC); insect meal and single cell proteins. Soyabean, rapeseed, linseed, sunflower, lupin and pea meal have a protein content of 35-50%, lower than animal sources, but their availability is good. They may contain several antinutritional factors such as phytic acid, tripsin inhibiting factors, non-starch polysaccharides, saponins, lectins and erucic acid in rapeseed, for instance. Other negative aspects include their amino acid profile (which is generally low in lysine and methionine), digestibility and possible genetically modified (GM) origins, which is an issue in the European Union. Soyabean meal also needs to be certified as deforestation-free under the EU Deforestation Regulation. Soya protein concentrate (SPC) has a good protein content, is digestible, is low in anti-nutritional factors and a good price. Negative aspects are its amino acid profile and GM status, which is an issue in Europe. There is now strong interest and increasing availability of plant-based protein concentrates produced from conventional sources such as faba, pea, wheat and barley. Insect meal has apparent protein levels of 55-70%. However, this includes chitin present in insects, which is indigestible for fish. In addition, it is only available in relatively small volumes at prices 1.5 times that of fish meal. Although insect meal production is sustainable in terms of its water and land use, and the conversion of food waste into feedstock, there are strict rules regarding what insects can be fed in the EU, especially if the insects themselves are intended for animal feed. Farmed insects are considered ‘farmed animals’ in the EU and many common ‘waste’ streams – such as manure, catering/restaurant food waste or waste or leftover food items from meat and fish – cannot be fed to farmed insects.

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RENDERING/AQUACULTURE Oil sources in aquafeed

While aquafeed formulators can easily replace fish/animal-based proteins, it is more difficult to replace oils. Long chain highly unsaturated fatty acids (LC-HUFAs) – such as omega-3 fatty acids DHA and EPA – and omega-6 fatty acid ARA, are essential nutrients and indispensable for healthy development and optimal growth in fish and shrimp. LC-HUFAs are present in fish, shrimp and algae but marine species and shrimp have no or very limited capabilities to synthesise LC-HUFAS, which must be provided through feed. When selecting oil sources for aquafeed, nutritional aspects include the fatty acid profile (presence of EPA and DHA, Long Chain Highly Unsaturated Fatty Acids [LC-HUFA’s]) and saturation levels; and digestibility. Other aspects include the melting point; oxidative status and stability; availability/reliability of supply; and price. Animal origin oil sources include fish oil, salmon oil, krill oil and poultry oil (see Table 1, opposite page). Fish oil has a good fatty acid profile, with up to 24% LC HUFA but its downsides are its price and scarcity. Positive aspects of salmon oil are its price, stability (in terms of oxidation) and

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availability. However, its fatty acid profile only contains 6-8% LC HUFA and intraspecies recycling regulations in the EU prohibit its use in salmonid feed. Plant origin oil sources include rapeseed, soyabean, linseed and palm oils; and lecithin from soyabean and rapeseed. Positive aspects of these oils include their high energy content, availability and price. However, they do not contain LC-HUFAs and there may be sustainability issues related to deforestation and land conversion, especially in the case of soya. Soyabean and rapeseed lecithin contain phospholipids and have good prices and availability. However, negative aspects include their fatty acid profiles and relatively high viscosity in relation to handling. New, innovative oil sources include heterotrophic algae, algae oil and GM rapeseed and camelina. Heterotrophic algae have a high DHA content of 25-35% LC PUFA. Its availability is increasing but its fermentation production cost is high and the product contains no EPA. Commercial products on the market include Corbion’s AlgaPrime, ADM’s DHA and DSM’s DHA Gold. Algae oil contains more than 65% EPA & DHA and is produced on an industrial

scale. It is regarded as a sustainable and scalable alternative to fish oil, especially when produced using renewable energy and low-impact carbon sources. Its price is high at €10/litre but only a very small amount is needed to meet nutritional requirements in aquafeed. GM canola oilseed crops with elevated DHA or EPA have been developed. US seed technology firm Nuseed, for example, launched its Aquaterra oil for aquaculture use in the Chilean salmon-farming industry in 2020 and Norway has also approved Aquaterra oil for fish feed in June 2023. For GM camelina, while field scale and trials are advanced, full commercial availability still appears to be forthcoming.

Conclusion

Aquaculture’s reliance on fish meal and oil is rapidly declining. Innovative ingredients will continue to resolve the main bottlenecks towards sustainable aquafeeds. More research is needed to establish the nutrient requirements of all farmed species. ● This article is based on a presentation at the EFPRA Conference in June 2025, by Hans Boon, managing consultant at Aquaculture Experience, the Netherlands. Serena Lim is the editor of OFI

OFI – JANUARY 2026

PLANT & TECHNOLOGY

Global round-up of news

IN BRIEF UK: Spanish petroleum logistics firm Exolum announced on 15 October that it would build a US$6M sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blending facility at Redcliffe Bay, south-west England. Set to be operational from 2026, the facility would be the first of a new UK-wide network of SAF blending hubs the firm has planned as part of its 2,000km pipeline network. Unblended SAF would be delivered by ship to Bristol’s Royal Portbury Dock and then transported to Exolum’s Redcliffe Bay site by pipeline, where it would be stored and blended on-site with conventional aviation fuel. Exolum said the project involved infrastructure upgrades to its existing aviation fuel pipeline storage and pumping station at Redcliffe Bay. By blending SAF into its national aviation fuel pipeline network, the investment would boost SAF supplies to airports across southern England and Wales.

Eni to transform Prioli site for HVO/SAF production Italian oil and gas company Eni said on 9 October that it is planning to transform its industrial site in Priolo, Sicily, into a hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)/sustainable aviation fuel biorefinery and chemical recycling plant for plastics. Following approval by the Italian Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security, Eni said it had launched the authorisation process for the Environmental Impact Assessment at the site. The project would use the area currently occupied by Versalis’ ethylene plant (pictured), which would gradually be decommissioned. The 500,000 tonnes/year biorefinery would mainly process residues and waste of vegetable origin, animal fats and vegetable oils and would

Photo: Eni

Oils & Fats International reports on some of the latest projects, technology and process news and developments around the world

also include a feedstock pretreatment unit and a hydrogen production plant. The chemical recycling plant would have a processing capacity of 40,000 tonnes/ year, producing around 32,000 tonnes/year of pyrolysis oil. The plant would use Versalis’

Hoop technology, which turns mixed plastic waste into raw materials for plastic production. In June, a Hoop demonstration plant was commissioned at the Versalis plant in Mantua but the Priolo facility would be the first at industrial scale, Eni said.

Plans for new UAE SAF plant move forwards UAE-based MENA Biofuels announced progress in developing the country’s first commercial sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant with the signing of an offtake agreement with Emirates Petroleum Company PJSC (Emarat) on 4 November. The firm said in a press release the same day that the US$300M project in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone was scheduled to be built in two phases and would convert used cooking oil and other waste-based feedstocks into certified SAF. Phase I investment would deliver 125M litres/ year (around 18% of the UAE’s 2030 SAF target), with Phase II set to double capacity to 250M

litres/year (some 36% to the nation’s SAF goal). MENA Biofuels said it had launched the first of two Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPCC) tenders for the SAF facility. The first would cover the receiving, storage and distribution facilities for feedstock, SAF, and by-products. Within first quarter 2026, it would issue the the second tender covering the SAF refinery process units and infrastructure. The Emarat offtake deal would enable domestic SAF offtake and distribution across the UAE and Gulf Cooperation Council aviation markets, it added.

IOI and Mega Star to develop coconut oil complex in Johor Malaysian plantation conglomerate IOI Corp said on 6 November that it had formed a joint venture with Singaporean investment company Mega Star Holding to develop a coconut mill complex in Segamat, Johor. The integrated coconut mill complex would have a processing capacity of 100,000 coconuts/day on its completion in the fourth quarter of 2027 and would produce downstream products such as co32 OFI – JANUARY 2026

conut oil and concentrated coconut water, IOI said. As existing trees matured and IOI’s coconut plantations expanded to approximately 5,000ha within the next two years, the complex would progressively scale up production to 300,000 coconuts/day. As part of the partnership involving an estimated investment of MYR100M (US$24M), IOI said it would offtake and market coconut oil to its associate com-

panies and customers in the EU and USA, while Mega Star would offtake and market concentrated coconut water to China and other Northeast Asian countries. IOI said the facility would enable it to supply coconuts from its approximately 3,700ha of coconut plantations nearby, while its location next to the inland port of Segamat, would allow shipment of finished products. www.ofimagazine.com

PLANT & TECHNOLOGY

LDC opens new protein production line in Tianjin Global agribusiness company Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) has opened a new speciality feed protein production line in Tianjin, China. The new line was part of the company’s strategy to expand downstream in the value chain, LDC said on 2 November. Located near LDC’s existing Tianjin oilseeds crushing plant, the new line would initially focus on producing fermented soyabean meal, with 60,000 tonnes/year of production capacity. “This development represents LDC’s first investment in a facility to produce speciality feed proteins on a commercial scale, and reflects our commitment to continued growth with China,” said James Zhou, LDC’s head of food & feed solutions and chief commercial officer. “In addition to supporting the growth of our food & feed solutions platform, the facility enables us to supply China’s livestock and poultry industry with … speciality feed proteins.” The facility used fermentation technology developed by LDC’s R&D Centre in Shanghai,

utilising multiple probiotic strains to break down anti-nutritional factors in soyabean meal to improve its protein content, palatability and digestibility, LDC said. The fermentation process also included data analytics for real-time monitoring and optimisation of key parameters such as temperature, humidity and gas concentration. AI-powered systems also forecast potential variations. “This facility is designed for future expansion into a broader range of speciality feed ingredients that derive from a wider range of plant sources and cover more animal farming or aquaculture scenarios,” said Shengshu Huang, LDC’s chief technology officer and head of speciality feed ingredients for North Asia. “This development will allow us to meet growing demand in China’s speciality feed protein market, projected to grow at a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2026 to 2030.”

Spanish agribusiness Elian, a subsidiary of the Viserion Group, is expanding capacity at its soyabean processing plant at the Port of Barcelona, Spain, with a €200M (US$232.6M) investment, World Grain wrote on 28 October. The project, which would increase soyabean processing at the facility by 100,000 tonnes/ year to 830,000 tonnes, continued a plan that began in 2023 with the company’s acquisition of the plant from global agribusiness giant Cargill, the report said. Work was expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025 and be completed at the end of 2027. The project would occupy an area of about 5ha and would have a concession signed with the Port of Barcelona for 40 years, World Grain wrote. Elian said the project responded to increasing demand in the sector for local production of ingredients such as textured and concentrated proteins that were currently mainly imported from the USA, China or South America.

Photo: Pixabay

Elian expands soyabean processing plant

“This new expansion consolidates our presence in Barcelona as a strategic centre of industrial and food innovation for Europe,” said Elian CEO Andrés Martín. Founded in Barcelona in 2021, Elian supplies raw materials derived from soya for the meat industry and food sector. Viserion International is a global agricultural merchant based in USA. It produces and markets cereals and other ingredients and by-products internationally.

IN BRIEF WORLD: CPM Crown – a division of process equipment and technology supplier CPM Holdings – has developed an alcohol-based solvent extraction technology as an alternative to traditional hexane-based extraction. CPM Crown said oilseed processors used hexanebased extraction to remove oil from oilseeds such as soyabeans and canola to produce cooking oils, meals and ingredients as it was efficient and cost-effective. However, there are health, food safety and environmental concerns due to hexane’s neurotoxic, volatile and flammable nature. The European Chemicals Agency, for example, has proposed adding n-hexane to its Substances of Very High Concern Candidate List due to its probable serious effects on human health. CPM Crown said on 21 October that its new Monarc Clean Oilseed Processing product would enable companies to replace solvents in their extraction supply chains, offering processors clean label and organic products. When used in oil processing, the technology could lead to lighter colour and lower gums content. In protein concentrate processing, it could lead to a higher protein meal and protein content, and a lighter colour, Crown added. The company sold its first commercial scale facility using Monarc technology in 2025 to Spanish agribusiness Elian Barcelona.

MTI invests in Turkish bleaching earth plant to support growth Speciality minerals company Minerals Technologies Inc (MTI) is investing in its bleaching earth plant in Uşak City, Turkey, to support growth of its Rafinol line of products for the natural oil purification market, the company said on 20 October. Rafinol is produced at the Uşak plant, which mines and manufactures adsorbents www.ofimagazine.com

and bleaching earths for renewable fuels and edible oils. “This investment supports the strong, ongoing demand we see in the US$1.1bn global natural oil purification market,” said DJ Monagle III, group president of MTI’s Consumer & Specialities segment. “Renewable fuel accounts for 12% of

the total market and is the fastest growing segment, driven by regulatory changes requiring the increased use of renewable fuels in the United States and Europe.” The Rafinol brand comprises two lines, one for the purification of biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel and the second for consumer oils and fats. OFI – JANUARY 2026 33

SHIPPING & TRANSPORT

New Arctic route The trade wars launched by US President Donald Trump have led to the exploration of a new Arctic shipping route for oils, fats and oilseeds from Canada’s Hudson Bay port Keith Nuthall, Andreia Nogueira and Jens Kastner One consequence of the trade wars launched by US President Donald Trump could be the launch of a new Arctic shipping route for oils, fats and oilseeds from the Hudson Bay port of Churchill, in Manitoba, Canada. The facility is linked by rail to the Canadian prairies, the country’s core agricultural zone which produces large volumes of canola, soyabean and sunflowerseed (at 24.86M tonnes in 2024/25), according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s 5 April 2024 ‘Canada: Oilseeds and Products Annual’. In addition, the facility can accommodate Panamex container vessels, which are too large to navigate a rival maritime route from Thunder Bay on Lake Superior via the St Lawrence Seaway past Montréal to the Gulf of St Lawrence and from there to the Atlantic Ocean, even if Canada’s Pacific ports can handle larger vessels. With climate change reducing sea ice cover and the Canadian government commissioning two new ice breakers in March, Ottawa is promoting the potential for Churchill-departing ships to sail through the Hudson Strait to the Labrador Sea and the Atlantic Ocean for much of the year. There are also potential westbound routes through the Northwest Passage to the Beaufort Sea, the Bering Sea and on to the Pacific Ocean, Asia and Latin America, according to ResearchGate.

New markets

Canada has been looking into alternative export markets, particularly in Europe 34 OFI – JANUARY 2026

and Asia, in response to the trade policies and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Speaking to OFI, Dr Barry Prentice, professor and director of the University of Manitoba Transport Institute notes that Churchill is no further from Europe than the port of Montréal, traditionally Canada’s gateway to Europe. It is also closer to the main Canadian provinces producing canola, soyabeans and sunflowerseed – Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. Churchill is also closer to South America, since almost all of this huge region is east of North America, while the ports in west Canada are more suitable for Asian routes, he explains. “Western Canada, for a long time, has recognised that’s a better route to reach Europe and Africa than going through the Great Lakes and Montreal,” he says. “One thing that has held us back is the commercial interests, because the companies that acquire the grain don’t own the terminal at Churchill and they would like to direct the grain to their terminals in Vancouver or Montréal because they make money handling the grain there…. But if the demand is there, it could happen.”

Canadian exports

In 2024, Canada produced 17.8M tonnes of canola, and its main export markets were the USA (US$5.6bn in sales) and China (US$3.5bn), followed by Japan, Mexico and the European Union (EU), according to the Canola Council of Canada (CCC). In 2024, Canada exported 5M tonnes

Photo: Adobe Stock AI generated

of soyabeans, with 12.5% sent to four European countries – the UK, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, according to Soy Canada. In addition, government data shows that in 2024, the value of Canada exports of sunflowerseed products reached C$55.3M (US$39.5M), with the bulk currently sent to the USA (C$52.2M/US$37.3M), plus C$493,820 (US$352,889) worth to the EU and C$41,794 (US$29,869) to the UK.

New export markets

With the Canadian government looking to develop non-US markets, Dr Prentice says the existing terminal at Churchill could easily move 500,000 tonnes/year of canola. “This is a much more economic route.” CCC president and CEO Chris Davison agrees that the port of Churchill is a viable route to ship canola. However, he stresses it is currently more costly for the industry than existing routes, and rail movements to the port are infrequent. Ocean freight costs are also higher due to the fact the largest vessels cannot dock at Churchill and, currently, the shipping season is limited by ice. “You also need to be able to get certain volumes for a port terminal to be viable during the shipping season,” he explains. “So that is a factor and a constraint that would impact on where companies are going to invest to be able to move the volumes they need to move over the course of a shipping season.” For Davison, there are better options for www.ofimagazine.com

SHIPPING & TRANSPORT infrastructure spending on shipping and exporting canola. Other ports in the east might be suitable for export to different markets, while the port of Vancouver, in the west coast, already serves significant volumes of canola and is being considered by the federal government in terms of enhancing capacity, he says. “We believe making strategic investments where they need to be made to increase our capacity in terms of supply chain and being a reliable supplier is extremely important. But those need to be made where they’re going to have the biggest impact.” Despite these concerns, the government of Canada supports developing Churchill. A new Major Projects Office of Canada has identified capacity improvements in this northern port as a potential public investment scheme. With support from the newly elected Liberal government of Prime Minister Mark Carney, the project would upgrade the Port of Churchill and “expand trade corridors with an all-weather road, an upgraded rail line, a new energy corridor and marine ice-breaking capacity”, says a federal government note. This would turn Churchill into a “major four season and dual-use gateway to the region”, with expanded export capacity in the North through Hudson Bay delivering “increased and diversified trade with Europe and other partners”. The Major Projects Office will work on permitting and planning consultation to “attract private and public sources of capital investment,” says the note.

Hudson Bay Railway

Since 2018, the government has also invested more than C$320M (US$229) into the Hudson Bay Railway, which links Churchill to the Canadian and American rail network. The line was closed by flooding in 2017 but has since been repaired by owners Arctic Gateway, a consortium of 41 Canadian Indigenous and other Hudson Bay communities, and reopened in June 2024. The Canadian government has announced that it will spend C$75M (US$53.6M) over the next five years supporting operations and maintaining the railway and pre-development activities at the Port of Churchill, which is also owned by Arctic Gateway. “We need to make the most of all of Canada’s infrastructure and ports to build a stronger, more resilient Canadian economy,” says Terry Duguid, Canada’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change. “The Arctic and Northern www.ofimagazine.com

Manitoba represent huge untapped economic potential.”

Joint ventures

In August 2025, Arctic Gateway signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Canadian bulk shipping company Fednav Ltd to explore strengthening Canada’s Arctic trade corridor through Churchill. Fednav operates 120 dry bulk carriers, navigating the Canadian Arctic, the Great Lakes and St Lawrence Seaway, and will help Arctic Gateway evaluate a sustainable, commercial 12-month shipping season through the Port of Churchill. “We see tremendous potential in combining our marine and logistics expertise with AGG’s ownership model and regional leadership,” says Fednav CEO Paul Pathy. Arctic Gateway CEO Chris Avery has said the port – which has four deep sea berths and storage facilities – aims to ship 20,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate this year, alongside some grain shipments before the ice returns in late November and December. Dr Prentice admits, though, that there are some problems with Churchill, one of which is shipping capacity. While Churchill can handle Panamax ships, with a draft of 39.5ft, building new industrial port berths able to handle Suezmax vessels with a draft of 55ft, will require some significant dredging, as well as a new berth. With ice melting rapidly on land as well as on sea, this alternative might require a new railway, since the 250km line between Gillam, in northern Manitoba, and the port of Churchill lies over perma-frost. For this reason, Dr Prentice says the government will have to invest in a bypass route which has solid rock as a foundation.

Insurance issues

Meanwhile, marine insurance companies have been reluctant to offer coverage for ships sailing the region in colder months, fearing the cost of accidents, which would be tough to cover by premiums due to the lack of traffic: “If there is an accident, it would take 100 years for insurers to recover their money because there are so few ships,” Dr Prentice says. But he believes this problem will be solved soon due to increased activity at the port. The Canadian government could subsidise insurance premiums and port fees at Churchill, he says, given the route offers strategic advantages regarding reducing reliance on US trade, while also strengthening national security and sovereignty claims within the sparsely

populated Canadian Arctic (around 130,000 people in the country’s three Arctic territories). This is especially important given the growing interest of Russia and China in the region. Other issues mentioned by Dr Prentice are how to handle loose ice, which can trap ships, even if icebreakers have broken sheet ice. The Canadian government does offer navigational services. Under the ‘Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act’, Canada insists that vessels sailing within 200 nautical miles from the Canadian coastline report to the Canadian Coast Guard prior to entering these northern waters. The Coast Guard can then provide the vessels with meteorological and navigational information, such as weather warnings and ice movement information. However, this solution also generates potential obstacles to trade as some countries – including the USA – claim that these controls breach global shipping law, arguing that anything more than 12 nautical miles from the coast should be considered international waters. Dr Prentice also stresses that there are environmental and conservation concerns about the expansion of shipping in a sensitive area such as the Arctic. For example, western Hudson Bay is home to 57,000 beluga whales and, every summer, 4,000 whales swim into the Churchill River estuary abutting the port.

Other Arctic routes

On a positive note, at least for the Canadian government, other Arctic routes are being opened. The Canadian initiative follows the launch of an Arctic shipping route from China by Singapore-based Sea Legend Line in October. Sea Legend Line chief operating officer Li Xiaobin explained to Chinese press agency Xinhua in a 14 October report that the sea and temperature conditions along the route are well-suited for heat-sensitive and time-critical cargo. Its Chinese container ship ‘Istanbul Bridge’ has completed a journey through the Arctic to a UK port in a 20-day voyage, cutting in half the usual transit time, departing from the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in eastern China, carrying about 4,000 20ftequivalent units (TEUs) of cargo. It is discharging its load at ports in Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and the UK, (initially focusing on lithium batteries and photo-voltaic cells). ● Keith Nuthall, Andreia Nogueira and Jens Kastner write for International News Services, UK OFI – JANUARY 2026

STATISTICS Source: US Department of Agriculture

STATISTICAL NEWS

Global oilseed production (million tonnes) 16 14

10 8 6 4 2 Jan ‘24

June ‘24

Soyabean imports

Nov ‘24

Soyabeans crushes

Apr ‘25

Sept ‘25

China’s monthly soyabean imports and crush (million tonnes)

Source: Julian McGill, Glenauk Economics

Million tonnes

Worldwide production of oilseeds is expected to reach a record level in 2025/26 of around 688M tonnes, a yearon-year increase of some 0.6%, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Plants and Protein (UFOP). The rise in output was mainly due to bumper rapeseed harvests and higher production of palm kernel and sunflowerseed, which more than offset an anticipated decline in soyabean supply, the 21 November report said. Global oilseed processing was also forecast to reach a new high of 578.4M tonnes, a rise of 12.3M tonnes from the previous crop year. Global trade in oilseeds was projected to remain virtually unchanged at 214.5M tonnes.

Chinese soyabean oil

Global oilseed production

3,500 3,000

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 CCNO-CPKO spread

Crude coconut oil, cif Rotterdam, US$/tonne

Crude palm kernel oil, cif Rotterdam, US$/tonne

Lauric oils market, January 2024-November 2025 (US$/tonne)

Source: Sathia Varqa, Fastmarkets

2,500

China has become an established soyabean oil exporter, due to its very large buying of Brazilian soyabeans to avoid US purchases, and later shipments from Argentina and the USA, Glenauk Economics managing director Julian McGill told the November International Palm Oil Congress and Exhibition (PIPOC) conference. The reason the country was able to crush so much soya was its very efficient pig husbandry, he said. The numbers and average weight of pigs had risen dramatically, with low pork prices stimulating demand. As a result, Chinese crushers were able to sell more soyabean meal, he said.

Lauric oils market

Typhoons in world No. 1 coconut oil producer, the Philippines, impacted 16,000ha of coconut plantations in 2025, weakening production and exports, Dr Sathia Varqa, a senior analyst with Fastmarkets, told the November PIPOC conference in Malaysia. Production and exports should recover in 2026 although production will remain at risk from adverse weather as climate change intensified, he said. Lauric oil prices would likely remain high. As coconut was not one of the seven commodities listed by the EU Deforestation Regulation, there could be switching away from lauric alternative palm kernel oil (PKO), as palm oil was listed as a deforestation risk commodity by the EUDR. Coconut oil traded US$1,000/ tonne higher than PKO in July/August 2025. The spread narrowed to US$600 in November.

World 2026/27: 44.1M ha (forecast) 2025/26: 43.9M ha (estimate) 2024/25: 43.1M ha Sown rapeseed area, 2024/25-2026/27 (million hectares)

36 OFI – JANUARY 2026

Source: International Grains Council

Rapeseed sowing in 2026/27

The International Grains Council (IGC) has projected the 2026/27 global rapeseed area at 44.1M ha, a rise of 0.2M ha compared to the current crop year, Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Plants and Protein (UFOP) reported in November. In Russia, the area devoted to rapeseed cultivation is expected to remain stable at 3M ha, following significant expansion in 2025/26. In contrast, according to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, Ukraine’s rapeseed planted area is expected to fall 100,000ha to 1.3M ha. Sowings for leading exporters Canada and Australia will not begin for several months but are expected to remain close to previous averages of 8.7M ha and 3.4M ha respectively.