Christmas 2014 Generic Newsletter

CHRISTMAS

2014

LIFE COVER WITH TAX RELIEF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Constantin Gurdgiev

Meet the Team HR Suite HR Highlights

Garvan Grant Ideas for Christmas presents

In The Spot Light Head Coach Billy Walsh

A RANGE RANGEOF OFSERVICES SERVICES THAT HELP YOU PROTECT, THAT HELP YOU PROTECT, CREATE, MANAGE YOUR WEALTH CREATE, MANAGEAND ANDPRESERVE PRESERVE YOUR WEALTH

Table of contents Life Cover with Tax Relief .............................................................................. P3 The HR Suite – HR Update............................................................................. P5 Positivity Corner ............................................................................................... P7 Constantin Gurdgiev ...................................................................................... P8 In the Spotlight ................................................................................................. P12 Garvan Grant ..................................................................................................... P13 Adverts ................................................................................................................ P15 Gerard Murphy – Insolvency Update ...................................................... P16 Meet the Team ......................... ........................................................................ P19

WELCOME Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat.

Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi.

Nam liber tempor cum soluta nobis eleifend option congue nihil imperdiet doming id quod mazim placerat facer possim assum. Typi non habent claritatem!

Regards, Your sign here

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Life Cover with Tax Relief SELF EMPLOYED

Personal Pension Term Insurance is a Personal Pension Term insurance policy that has been approved under Section 785 of the Taxes Consolidation Act, 1997. Essentially it is life cover on which the premium qualifies for tax relief at the life insured’s marginal rate of income tax, subject to certain limits.

Who is Personal Pension Term Insurance suitable for • Any one who is self employed, either profession or trade such as solicitors, accountants, carpenters or farmers, assessable for income taxunder Schedule D Case I and II. • Anyone who is in non-pensionable employment i.e. PAYE workers who are not part of a company (occupational) pension scheme.

Restrictions on Personal Pension Term Insurance Due to the generous tax relief available on premiums, The Revenue Commissioners have imposed a number of restrictions • The policy can not be used as security for a loan and can not be assigned

• Can not be taken out in a joint or dual life capacity i.e. policy can only be taken out in a single life capacity.

Features of Personal Pension Term Insurance • Taken up to a normal retirement age of maximum age of 75.

• No taxation liability arises on payment of the Death Benefit.

The Death Benefit is payable to your personal representatives and may be taxable as part of your estate.

• The expiry date or term of your Pension Term Insurance plan can go beyond your normal retirement age of your pension plan. In other words if you have chosen a normal retirement age of 60 for your pension, you could benefit for life cover up to age 75.

Life Cover of €200,000 Life Insured

Life Cover of €400,000

Non-smoker, age next birthday 40, retiring at age 65

Premium

€24.62 per month

€45.16 per month

Premium after Tax Relief

€14.52 per month

€26.64 per month

Tax Savings

€10.10 per month

€18.52 per month

Tax Relief

41% (No PRSI/USC relief)

Assuming a person is eligible for tax relief at 41%. Subject to underwriting, terms and conditions apply.

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Life Cover with Tax Relief COMPANY DIRECTORS

Executive Pension Term Insurance is an Executive Pension Term insurance policy that has been approved under Section 785 of the Taxes Consolidation Act, 1997. Premiums paid into Executive Pension Term Assurance are eligible for tax relief at the appropriate corporate rate, subject to certain limits.

Who is Executive Pension Term Insurance suitable for • If you are a director of a company or are an employer.

• If you are a member of a group occupational pension scheme and your employer has set up a group AVC scheme.

Restrictions on Executive Pension Term Insurance Due to the generous tax relief available on premiums, The Revenue Commissioners have imposed a number of restrictions • The policy can not be used as security for a loan and can not be assigned.

• Can not be taken out in a joint or dual life capacity i.e. policy can only be taken out in a single life capacity. *Salary- there are a number of defintions regarding salary, please consult with your financial adviser regarding which applies to you.

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Features of Executive Pension Term Insurance • Taken up to a normal retirement age of maximum age of 70.

• The policy must be set up under trust where typically the employer will act as trustee.

• For members of occupational pension schemes, the maximum amount of life cover that is allowed by the Revenue Commissioners is four times your salary* plus an allowance for dependants’ pension.

• The expiry date or term of your Executive Pension Term insurance plan cannot go beyond your normal retirement age (NRA) of your company pension plan. In other words the term of the life cover must correspond to the normal retirement age of your company (occupational) pension scheme. Also, if you leave employment earlier than your NRA, the cover will cease at that date.

• If premiums are paid by a company on your behalf, there are no Benefit-in-Kind implications for the policy holder (life insured).

HR Highlights 2014 Caroline McEnery and Úna Glazier-Farmer BL

Joint Labour Committees In July 2011, the Supreme Court deemed Joint Labour Committees (JLC) unconstitutional. In October 2013, the Labour Court Report on the JLC was published. Since the publication of the Report, the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation, Richard Bruton has reiterated his commitment to retain, remain and reform JLCs. The first steps taken by the Minister in relation to JLCs came on the 28th January 2014 when he signed JLC Orders for the contract cleaning, hairdressing, hotels and security services sectors.

failure to comply with a legal obligation to the endangerment of an individual’s health and safety. Therefore, the 2014 Act is very relevant to the retail sector particularly in relation to food safety.

The legislation provides for up to 5 years’ remuneration in a case of unfair dismissal for making a protected disclosure.

Practical Tips for Employers

In October 2014, the draft Employment Registration Order (ERO) for the security services sector was published. The ERO sought to increase the minimum rate of remuneration to €10.75 per hour which is an increase of .74c per hour from the 2009 rates. The draft ERO places unfair and unrealistic demands on employers in the security services sector who have already had to invest heavily to ensure compliance with the Private Security Services Act 2004.

If this ERO is a sign of the Department’s intentions towards the reinstatement of the JLC it poses an unwelcome challenge for employers in what are already highly competitive markets.

Employers should have a clear whistleblowing policy, setting out the steps a worker should take if any wrongdoing comes to their attention. The policy should be communicated to all workers covered by the Act to ensure full compliance.

A nominated senior member of staff should be identified in the policy to whom workers can speak to in confidence to report a wrongdoing.

Industrial Relations (Amendment) Bill 2014

Protected Disclosure Act 2014 In July 2014, the Protected Disclosure Act 2014 commenced which saw the introduction of the most comprehensive whistleblowing legislation in Europe. The 2014 Act seeks to protect a worker who makes a disclosure of wrongdoings to their employer free from recrimination. The 2014 Act provides an all-encompassing definition of worker which extends beyond an employee to include independent contractors, agency workers, trainees and even volunteers. A wrongdoing ranges from a criminal offence, to

In May 2014, Minister Bruton announced reform of the industrial relations in Ireland. While it is unexpected when the Bill will be published, the Department of Jobs Enterprise and Innovation has identified the main provisions: a definition of what constitutes “collective bargaining” provisions to help the Labour Court identify if internal bargaining bodies are genuinely independent of their employer bringing clarity to the requirements to be met by a Trade Union advancing a claim under the Act setting out policies and principles for the Labour Court to follow when assessing those workers’ terms and conditions, including the sustainability of the employers business in the long-term

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new provisions to ensure cases dealt with are ones where the numbers of workers are not insignificant provisions to ensure remuneration, terms and conditions are looked at in their totality provisions to limit the frequency of reassessment of the same issues an explicit prohibition on the use by employers of inducements (financial or otherwise) designed specifically to have staff forego collective representation by a trade union enhanced protection for workers who may feel that they are being victimised for exercising their rights in this regard by way of interim relief in the case of dismissal

Employment Law Review Over the previous 12 months there has been some interesting decisions from the Employment Appeals Tribunal (EAT): The Tribunal (EAT) decision of Brendan O’Callaghan v Dunnes Stores provides smaller companies with some level of comfort where it held that it may be acceptable to have the investigation and the disciplinary hearing conducted by the same person. In this case, the regional store manager conducted both the investigation and disciplinary meetings which the claimant argued was a breach of fair procedures. While the EAT accepted that best practice is to have different people conduct each part of the process this was not always required particularly where there had been a full admission by the employee at the first instance and the fact of the case were not complex.

The Circuit Court overturned a decision of the EAT in the case of Tomasz Burczy v Tesco Ireland Limited for unfair dismissal. The claimant was a warehouse operative who was found using his mobile phone while operating a vehicle in the warehouse. The employee was dismissed for gross misconduct for breach of the health and safety policy which he had been fully trained in the weeks prior to the incident. The EAT were of the view that the sanction was disproportionate to the offence and awarded the claimant €20,000. On appeal, Judge Linanne agreed that it was necessary to have a strict safety regime in place particularly due to the safety concerns associated with operating machinery while using a mobile phone.

About the Authors Caroline McEnery bio Caroline McEnery, Managing Director, has a Masters in Human Resource Management from the University of Limerick. She has completed Train the Trainer training, is a Manual Handling Instructor and is a trained Personality and Aptitude assessment provider. Caroline is CIPD accredited and has over 15 years’ HR experience gained from her time working with the Garvey Group and Kerry Group. Caroline has been offering clients HR advice and business support since she set up The HR Suite in 2009.

Úna Glazier-Farmer BL bio Úna Glazier-Farmer BL is Head of the Employment Law Department at The HR Suite. She is a qualified Barrister-at-Law as well as holding a B.A. and LL.B from the National University of Ireland, Galway, an LL.M. in Competition Law from Kings College London and a Diploma in Finance Law from the Law Society of Ireland. Prior to joining The HR Suite, Úna was a practicing barrister in the Law Library, Dublin and worked for major international law firms in London and Brussels.

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Business and Legal Briefs Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer.

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Finance heads get bullish about prospects for new year as business improves. Two thirds of chief financial officers (CFOs) responding to a survey say they will hire new employees in 2015, on the back of improving business performance.

According to a survey by RSM Farrell Grant Sparks, 91 per cent of CFOs across Ireland said that their business is in a good position to capitalise on the expected economic up-turn in Q4 and on into 2015.

“CFOs are typically the more cautious business leaders, but our survey showed that they were almost bullish in their level of optimism for the Irish business environment with 73 per cent saying that they see an improvement in their business due to the upturn in the economy. This is obviously a hugely positive endorsement,” said David McGarry, director with RSM Farrell Grant Sparks.

Moreover, more than half (54%) of finance professionals surveyed currently have opportunities for employment in their companies, and 66 per cent say that they expect to hire new employees in 2015.

While just over half of the RSM Farrell Grant Sparks survey respondents believe that the recent budget delivered will support Irish businesses, a sizeable 82% of finance professionals believe that the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland will be “invaluable” to Irish SMEs. The survey also found that 66 per cent of finance professionals do not believe that the introduction of Ireland’s new financial reporting framework, which includes FRS 102, will significantly impact their business.

Some 45 per cent of firms in Republic and North reporting growth. The economic recovery is spreading to smaller business across Ireland according to the latest InterTradeIreland quarterly business monitor.

It found 45 per cent of firms in the Republic and Northern Ireland reporting growth. It was the most positive most positive set of results since 2008 and showed firms of all sizes and across all sectors are experiencing recovery.

Almost nine out of 10 businesses are either stable (43 per cent) or growing (45 per cent). This is the highest percentage of firms reporting growth since the recession began and is almost double the number in growth mode compared with this time last year (26 per cent).

“Up until now the recovery has been driven by exporters and larger firms but, significantly, we are beginning to see an upturn in domestic demand, which is now benefiting businesses that rely on the local market,” said Aidan Gough, strategy and policy director at InterTradeIreland.

Meanwhile, more than half of Irish companies that responded to a EY study cited raising fresh capital as their key management issue.

EY’s capital confidence barometer, which surveys business leaders in 60 countries, found 53 per cent of Irish respondents are focused on capital raising. Half of these said equity would be their main source of funding. It found Irish companies were seeking growth EY described as “low growth and close to core”.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing.

Nine out of 10 businesses are either stable or growing, across the island of Ireland and it is no longer just exporters and multinationals feeling the benefits of economic recovery. Smaller business and companies focused purely on the home market are showing signs of recovery, according to a new report from north/south focused Inter Trade Ireland.

According to the InterTrade Ireland Business Monitor for the third quarter of 2014 45pc of firms in Ireland reporting growth in the three months to the end of September .

It found that companies of all sizes, and across all sectors are now experiencing recovery.

In the same period 12pc of firms reporting an increase in staffing levels, up slightly from the previous period. Profitability is also improving.

Having been the worst hit by the crisis the construction sector is now the most optimistic, with 35pc of construction firms indicating that they are less cautious about undertaking investment than they were a year ago.

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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer.

Some 45 per cent of firms in Republic and North reporting growth. The economic recovery is spreading to smaller business across Ireland according to the latest InterTradeIreland quarterly business monitor.

It found 45 per cent of firms in the Republic and Northern Ireland reporting growth. It was the most positive most positive set of results since 2008 and showed firms of all sizes and across all sectors are experiencing recovery.

Almost nine out of 10 businesses are either stable (43 per cent) or growing (45 per cent). This is the highest percentage of firms reporting growth since the recession began and is almost double the number in growth mode compared with this time last year (26 per cent).

“Up until now the recovery has been driven by exporters and larger firms but, significantly, we are beginning to see an upturn in domestic demand, which is now benefiting businesses that rely on the local market,” said Aidan Gough, strategy and policy director at InterTradeIreland.

Meanwhile, more than half of Irish companies that responded to a EY study cited raising fresh capital as their key management issue.

EY’s capital confidence barometer, which surveys business leaders in 60 countries, found 53 per cent of Irish respondents are focused on capital raising. Half of these said equity would be their main source of funding. It found Irish companies were seeking growth EY described as “low growth and close to core”.

Finance heads get bullish about prospects for new year as business improves. Two thirds of chief financial officers (CFOs) responding to a survey say they will hire new employees in 2015, on the back of improving business performance.

According to a survey by RSM Farrell Grant Sparks, 91 per cent of CFOs across Ireland said that their business is in a good position to capitalise on the expected economic up-turn in Q4 and on into 2015.

“CFOs are typically the more cautious business leaders, but our survey showed that they were almost bullish in their level of optimism for the Irish business environment with 73 per cent saying that they see an improvement in their business due to the upturn in the economy. This is obviously a hugely positive endorsement,” said David McGarry, director with RSM Farrell Grant Sparks.

Moreover, more than half (54%) of finance professionals surveyed currently have opportunities for employment in their companies, and 66 per cent say that they expect to hire new employees in 2015.

While just over half of the RSM Farrell Grant Sparks survey respondents believe that the recent budget delivered will support Irish businesses, a sizeable 82% of finance professionals believe that the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland will be “invaluable” to Irish SMEs. The survey also found that 66 per cent of finance professionals do not believe that the introduction of Ireland’s new financial reporting framework, which includes FRS 102, will significantly impact their business.

CFOs across Ireland said that their business is in a good position to capitalise on the expected economic up-turn in Q4 and on into 2015.

“CFOs are typically the more cautious business leaders, but our survey showed that they were almost bullish in their level of optimism for the Irish business environment with 73 per cent .

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing.

Some 45 per cent of firms in Republic and North reporting growth. The economic recovery is spreading to smaller business across Ireland according to the latest InterTradeIreland quarterly business monitor.

It found 45 per cent of firms in the Republic and Northern Ireland reporting growth. It was the most positive most positive set of results since 2008 and showed firms of all sizes and across all sectors are experiencing recovery.

Almost nine out of 10 businesses are either stable (43 per cent) or growing (45 per cent). This is the highest percentage of firms reporting growth since the recession began and is almost double the number in growth mode compared with this time last year (26 per cent).

“Up until now the recovery has been driven by exporters and larger firms but, significantly, we are beginning to see an upturn in domestic demand, which is now benefiting businesses that rely on the local market,” said Aidan Gough, strategy and policy director at InterTradeIreland.

Meanwhile, more than half of Irish companies that responded to a EY study cited raising fresh capital as their key management issue.

EY’s capital confidence barometer, which surveys business leaders in 60 countries, found 53 per cent of Irish respondents are focused on capital raising. Half of these said equity would be their main source of funding. It found Irish companies were seeking growth EY described as “low growth and close to core”.\ “Up until now the recovery has been driven by exporters and larger firms but, significantly, we are beginning to see an upturn in domestic demand, which is now benefiting businesses that rely on the local market,” said Aidan Gough, strategy and policy director at InterTradeIreland.

Meanwhile, more than half of Irish companies that responded to a EY study cited raising fresh capital as their key management issue.

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Economic Outlook

Since the publication of the National Accounts for H1 2014 back in September, our media narrative has firmly drifted toward celebration of the return of the age of growth. ‘Celtic Phoenix’ meme threw aside the evidence on the mortgages and utilities payments arrears, and the rising numbers of those who find it difficult to meet their monthly groceries bills.

The nation has been well prepped for this confidence turnaround for some years now, and now that the good news is in, critical assessments are out. Hence the latest forecasts, predicting 3.9-4 percent growth in 2015 and sub-10 percent unemployment, amidst continued resurgence of the property markets and fabled investment.

sification of our R&D activities from being counted as business expenditure (under ESA 1995) to being counted as investment (ESA 2010). The result was to significantly boost the levels of our GDP and thus reduce the debt/GDP ratio for the Government, as well as our fiscal deficits. Ireland ranks amongst the nations where this had the largest impact on both fiscal metrics, primarily because we have significant allocations of R&D by the multinationals.

What does the future hold for this resurgent Celtic Phoenix?

Hazardous as it often turns out to be, forecasting the near-term future (in our case the fortunes of this economy for 2015) must be done, if only to set our sights on potential opportunities and challenges in the year ahead. So let's do exactly this, while minding the usual caveat - Ireland's economy is always highly volatile, and subject to both internal and external uncertainties.

Investment: Is the Boom Getting Boomier?

The problem is that while our aggregate figures for investment rose, our actual investment activity did not move by much.

Another problem is that virtually all of the MNCs R&D spending is tax optimisation. Take the latest data on patents filings in Ireland shows that in Q3 2014, some 786 new patent applications were filed in Ireland - an uplift of 22 percent year-on-year.

Alas, Irish academic institutions' and companies' share of these amounted to just over 42 percent, which is less than the historical average of 43.5 percent. In other words, foreign fillings of patents in Ireland are still outstripping Irish indigenous innovation. Per EU Commission, just three companies account for almost 70% percent of all R&D ‘investment’ in Ireland: Accenture, Covidien and Seagate Technology.

In 2014, we were one of the first nations in the EU to switch from old methodology for determining our GDP and GNP (the ESA 1995) to the new one (the ESA 2010). Much attention was paid to the effects of including illicit activities into our national income calculations. But the real kicker in this move was less known reclas

Now, with the latest changes in our corporate tax regime, announced in Budget 2015, Ireland's introduction of the so-called 'knowledge development box' coupled with a substantial increase in R&D funds eligible for tax deduction will likely induce even more R&D activity to be booked by the MNCs. This, in turn is likely to provide a significant increase in

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officially-recognised investment activity, pushing up our GDP and GNP in 2015.

Additional boost to the aggregate income will come from the surging property markets. From January through October 2014, Residential Property Prices in Ireland have risen 16.1 percent. Over the same period of 2013 prices were up 6.1 percent. The same trend was present in Dublin residential property which rose at a rate of 24 percent to-date in 2014, against 13.3 percent over the same period in 2013. In the mean time, applications for new construction permits are languishing at historical lows. In other words, new residential buildings pipeline has been at all time lows (counting from Q1 1975) for four years in a row. This data, paired with other sources, shows that most of the property prices increases have been driven by the secondary markets transactions. Our aggregate investment recovery is more about flipping of houses in the second hand markets than about building new stock.

Title: Total Investment as % of GDP, 2015

Source: IMF Key to charts: Chart 2 The above weaknesses in investment cut across our national savings rates that have been running at almost 20 percent of GDP in 2013-2014 and are expected to amount to 19.8 percent of GDP in 2015. The gap between savings and investment rates, at 2.4 percentage points in 2015, illustrates the huge costs of funding Irish Government and corporate debts, and is the fifth highest amongst the small open euro area economies.

The same holds in the commercial real estate markets: sales of Nama- and banks'- owned assets to vulture funds and REITs, as well as purchases of office facilities by a handful of multinationals have generated significant uplift in our national accounts. But don’t be going around searching for the construction sites - few of the buildings and land plots gobbled up by these investors are generating improvements in the current stock of capital. Meanwhile, commercial property markets are beginning to cool - even in the hot spots of Dublin 2/4/6. Q3 2014 has been a no-go territory for large leases signings Lettings slowed down, in the case of both prime Dublin and suburban Dublin sites, in both Q2 and Q3 2014.

An added threat to our investment success story in 2015 will be the monetary policy and the potential unraveling of the EU’s fiscal / structural funds policies. On monetary side, markets are expecting the first hikes in interest rates in the UK and US to come sometime between Q2 and Q3 2015. Many acquisitions of Irish assets by the US and UK investment funds have been funded by carry trades (with investors borrowing in US dollars or Sterling to purchase assets in Euro). As Euro depreciates under the pressure of tightening monetary policies in other regions, these carry trades will start losing attractiveness to investors. The result can be a wave of exits of investment funds from Irish markets.

Exports: Fables of Glory Which brings us to the issue of our exports. In terms of externally trading economy, we are accustomed to the media and politicians extoling the virtues of the exports-led recovery.

Should the above trends in the property sector persist in 2015, Ireland's investment side of the national accounts can see an uplift of 10-12 percent next year. If, instead, the emerging trends in the commercial real estate markets were to drive our overall property sector, next year's growth in investment will be closer to 3-4 percent, or worse.

Per IMF latest projections, Ireland’s total Investment in 2015 should run at around 17.3 percent of GDP, up from 16.4 percent in 2014 and the highest rate of investment since 2009. Still, Euro area small open economies average is forecast to be 19.1 percent and Ireland’s own 2004-2014 average is 21 percent. Which puts things into perspective: absent headwinds outlined above, IMF projects investment growth in Ireland to be sub-par historical and peer levels.

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Over 2004-2014, Irish exports of goods and services grew, on average, at 4.1 percent per annum – joint fifth highest level of growth (with Luxembourg) in the group of small open euro area economies. In 2014, the same rate is estimated to be some 6.3

percent – second highest in our peer group after Slovakia’s 6.34 percent. However, in 2015 this growth is expected to slow down to below 3.4 percent, ranking Ireland as the 9th fastest growing exporter in the peer group of other small open euro area economies. The same story is expected to repeat in 2016, with our forecast 2016 growth in exports of goods and services set at around 4 percent, sixth highest amongst the peers.

Aptly, the forecast for 2015-2016 current account surpluses sees external balances deteriorating, falling from 3.8 percent of GDP average in 2013-2014 to 2.7 percent average for 2015-2016. This, in return, means that a greater share of our debt funding burden will have to fall onto domestic economy – our internally-trading companies and households – as opposed to our internationally trading economy.

Title: Volume of Exports of Goods and Services % change year-on-year

The headwinds on exports sides are external to Ireland.

Firstly, as mentioned above, there is a weakening of the euro.

Traditionally, this should drive exports up. But for multinationals, who account for three quarters of our total sales overseas, the story is different. Weaker euro means weaker profitability obtained on transfer pricing and weaker profits repatriation benefits. The latter is good for our GNP, the former is bad for our GDP and GNP and for our external sustainability.

Source: IMF Key to charts: Chart 5 Which begs a question: what will happen to our healthy current account surpluses (the measure of external balance for the economy that is effectively synonymous with debt sustainability)?

So far, during the crisis, our healthy current account dynamics have been sustained first and foremost by a massive collapse in imports. Before the crisis, Ireland’s imports of goods and services grew at an annual rate of 8 percent. Over 2008-2011 period, imports were contracting at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent.

Since the onset of the recovery, imports have been growing at 4.5 percent. The problem is that 2015 forecast shows imports growth at 2.9 percent. But imports growth reflects two forces of demand: domestic consumption and exports production. In other words, slower growth in imports means either slower growth in domestic demand or lower production of exports or both.

Secondly, currency wars spreading across the globe are reinforcing the pre-crisis trends toward trade flows regionalisation. In a world where exports production moves closer and closer to consumption centres and follows patterns of demand growth, Ireland is stuck in a relatively unusual position. So far, we have benefited from our close trade links with the robustly growing economies of the US and UK. But we have been held back by our strong trade links with the stagnant EU. Next, should global economic growth rebound, trade will start booming again in Asia Pacific and Latin America – the two markets into which our inroads are not getting stronger.

Put differently, the only way our debt sustainability remains robust is if either our exports growth slows down or our consumption remains anemic. In effect, it is a choice of being either starved or strangulated.

Last, but not least, global tax and regulatory competition are accelerating once again. Good example of this is the UK move on devolving corporate tax authority to Northern Ireland, as well as regulatory push in Asia Pacific to attract foreign enterprises and entrepreneurs. Another example is ongoing tightening of regulations around investment markets that is raging across Europe and Ireland, contrasted by lack of such a push in other regions. Again, absent a robust and effective response, Ireland is likely to witness gradual erosion of our competitive advantages.

Fiscal Pain Has Not Gone Away The above implies that Government finances are still facing headwinds in 2015-2016. Budget 2015 is based on three key assumptions: that real GDP growth is going to reach 3.9 percent; that broadly-speaking, current spending we remain locked at around EUR50 billion for 2015-2018; and that existent policies will not change.

IMF projects Irish GDP to grow by a shade over 3 percent in 2015.

The difference in these projections means that if the IMF forecast

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(or any other number below 3.5 percent) comes true, the Government will likely miss its 3 percent deficit target.

Now, give the second assumption a thought. Over the next four years, the Government will be facing new elections and will be heading into 2019 European elections. The political cycle, therefore, makes the second assumption for fiscal sustainability simply unrealistic.

And Onto Actual Forecasts IMF forecast for Irish growth is at 3.05 percent for 2015 declining to the average of less than 2.6 percent annually in 2016-2018.

Which brings us to the final assumption of the Budget 2015 arithmetic: unchanged policies framework. This assumption underpins Budgetary estimates that envision EUR8 billion in additional tax revenues flowing into the Exchequer vaults. The pesky issue here is: what happens if the Government does introduce tax cuts, as promised by Taoiseach and other Cabinet members? And what happens if corporate tax revenues slack in the wake of tax system restructuring?

Title: Real GDP Growth Forecasts, % y/y

Note: Cumulated Gap between two forecasts is computed as Index 100=2013

Irish Government projections envision growth of 3.9 percent in 2015 and the average annual growth of 3.4 percent in 2016-2018.

IMF forecast for Irish growth is at 3.05 percent for 2015 declining to the average of less than 2.6 percent annually in 2016-2018. Irish Government projections envision growth of 3.9 percent in 2015 and the average annual growth of 3.4 percent in 2016-2018.

With all usual caveats in place, I suspect we will see 2015 growth closer to 3 percent, assuming no significant shocks from abroad or a reigniting of the domestic problems in investment and arrears space.

Sources: IMF, Department of Finance and author own calculations Key to charts: Chart 8

The devil, as some would say, is in the details. And the details are what is commonly missing when it comes to the Irish economy.

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev is the Adjunct Assistant Professor of Finance with Trinity College, Dublin, and serves as a co-Founder and a Director of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organization, Ltd and the Chairman of Ireland Russia Business Association. He holds non-executive appointment on the Investment Committee of Heinz Global Asset Management, LLC (US).

In the past, Dr. Gurdgiev served as the Head of Research with St Columbanus AG (Switzerland), the Head of Macroeconomics with the Institute for Business Value, IBM, Director of Research with NCB Stockbrokers, Ltd, and Group Editor and Director of Business & Finance Publications. He also held a non-executive appointment on the Investment Committee of GoldCore, Ltd (Ireland) and Sierra Nevada College (US).

Born in Moscow, Russia, Dr. Gurdgiev was educated in the University of California, Los Angeles, University of Chicago, Johns Hopkins University and Trinity College, Dublin.

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In The Spotlight Billy Walsh, current Head Coach to the Irish Boxing High Performance Team, is an outstanding sportsman from Wexford. Billy developed a love of all sports at an early age and excelled at them all. During his own boxing career he won seven Irish Senior titles, represented Ireland at European and World Championships and achieved his lifelong ambition by competing in the Olympic Games in Seoul in 1988.

In recent times Billy has turned a labour of love into a career by becoming head coach for the High Performance Team for the last ten years. The successes to date at European, World and Olympic level are unprecedented in the history of Irish Sport and as a result he has become one of the most highly respected and sought after coaches in the world of Boxing.

Due to the implementation of strategic planning and a constant mission to improve, Irish boxing has surpassed all other sports with an impressive medal haul from every major tournament in which they have participated. With the help of an amazing back room team and tremendous athletes, Billy has overseen the development and nurturing of many boxers, helping to turn them into world class performers.

In the last two Olympic Games (2008 Beijing, 2012 London), the IABA has earned a total of seven medals and has accounted for all but one of Ireland’s Olympic podium appearances. Furthermore, based on the top performances from Ireland’s boxers in those same games, the IABA has nearly doubled its previous medal count from nine medals to 16.

Q. What are the main responsibilities of your job?

A. Planning coaching sessions months in advance. Developing a strategy for continuous improvement amongst the support staff and squad.

Planning tournaments and training camps worldwide. Preparing budget applications, presenting to the Sports Council and implementing our plans within strict budget guidelines. Looking after the welfare of squad members and ensuring they remain focused and motivated.

Q. What motivates you in your job?

A. Striving to help young athletes to use the gifts they were given to the best of their ability.

Q. How would you describe your work style?

A. Hands on and democratic.

Q. What is the most valuable professional lesson you have learned so far?

A. Treat everyone with the respect they deserve and never be afraid of change.

Q. In Ireland, whose career do you most admire and why?

A. Brian Cody because of his longevity in a high performance environment and the knowledge he has of his team’s strengths and his opponent’s weaknesses. Joe Schmidt because of his methodical approach and unprecedented attention to detail. Both men possess an absolute desire to keep improving their teams and they also prevent complacency in their squads by selecting the players that are showing the best form.

Q. Based on your experience, what is the most valuable career advice you can give others?

A. Set realistic and achievable goals in your professional capacity. Once you achieve those goals you must review how they were reached, assess how they can be improved upon and reset at a higher level. Always strive for self improvement and lead by example.

Q. In terms of professional sport in Ireland, what do you think is the biggest challenge?

A. Our country has an amazing pool of talent for such a small nation, but the lack of funding for the development of adequate coaches and facilities will hinder us in our ability to compete at world level.

Q. What is your ultimate professional goal at this point?

A. To make Ireland the number one ranking nation at the 2016 Olympics in Rio.

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Ideas for

Christmas presents If you think the past is a foreign country where they do things differently, wait till you hear about the future. Garvan Grant looks at some of the cool stuff you’ll be able to buy in the future which begins right about ... now!

The best thing about the future is getting closer all the time. Things that were but a mad inventor’s dream last month will probably be on sale in the shops by February. In fact, if you wait till February, they will probably already be old hat, so the trick is to buy them online or, if you can manage it, buy them before they’re invented.

In order to give you a slight head start on other consumers, the following are five technological advances which should be commercial realities in the next couple of months (or even the next few minutes):

iGlasses You’ve heard of eyeglasses which used to help people see better back in the days before lasers. You’ve probably also heard of Google Glasses which help people see the internet up close. iGlasses take that concept even further.

Once you put a pair of these on, your whole life becomes virtual and you never have to leave your home again. In fact, you never have to move or even think again as the iGlasses take care of everything and are controlled by your subconscious. This means they will do what you were going to do before you even realised you were going to do it.

The iGlasses also have extra functions such as giving you the ability to drive. All you do is stick the glasses on, get into the car and fall asleep. Then, when you wake up, you will be either dead due to a minor system malfunction which caused the iGlasses and the car to crash or you will be at your destination feeling very rested.

Homebots If you don’t already have at least one common-or robot knocking about your house, you are soooooo November 2014! Anyway, don’t feel too left out as a study by the Virgil Profane Institute of Fabricating Statistics for The Future estimates that 78 per cent of households in the western world will have three to four robots by 4pm on January 20, 2015.

But don’t worry about buying several robots between now and then as the ultimate personal robot is coming soon. Called the Homebot, it is basically an automated slave that will do whatever you want it to do (within reason, of course).

So from dragging you to the shower in the morning to getting you dressed and cleaning the whole house, the Homebot does it all. If you are feeling tired, it can make you a snack, show you a film on its built-in Homebot-o-Screen and even give you a deep-tissue massage.

Also, if you wake up on a Monday morning and don’t feel like going to work, the Homebot will go in for you and do whatever you were going to do for the day. If your boss is not happy about this, the Homebot can torture them until they are happy.

So, if you want to order a pizza, your iGlasses will know this several hours in advance and will already have ordered the one you will want. If you suddenly think you want to watch a film, the iGlasses will start showing the film you were going to choose on the inside of the glasses before you even thought about downloading it.

And while your left eye is watching the film, your right eye can be working online. You can send emails, write documents, design websites and even fly a plane from your armchair or bed. And if you are a brain surgeon, you can operate on a patient remotely using subtle movements of your eye to indicate to the computer in the hospital what cuts you want to make.

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The next development from the Homebot people is to provide you with several Homebots so you can actually have a Homebot partner and some Homebot children, meaning you won’t have to bother with a real family.

MyDrones There was a lot of talk this year about two types of drones: the sort that the US uses to kill people who have been annoying it but who live kind of faraway and the ones Amazon plans to use to deliver stuff to your house.

media ‘SmarterAvatar’. It will tweet hilarious stuff for you, post gorgeous selfies of you and even make you loads of new virtual friends which you probably wouldn’t have made yourself. All you have to do is sit back and be popular.ich revolutionised the way we live and, perhaps more

Digital iWatches

MyDrones use similar technology to the above but are for personal use. If you have your own MyDrone, you can programme it to go pretty much anywhere in the world to get what you want. So if you need a bottle of whiskey and some Valium, you can send it down to the off-licence and chemist to pick those items up for you.

It can also be put to a variety of different uses. If you deliver post as your job, you can just programme your MyDrone to deliver all your post for you while you stay in bed or just to the pub. If you are a burglar but also quite lazy, you can programme it to rob various houses, though be sure to specify what you want stolen.

As we now know, all modern technology derives from the digital watch which revolutionised the way we live and, perhaps more importantly, the way we tell time. If it weren’t for the digital watch, we wouldn’t have iPhones, space travel or those thermometers you stick in meat to see if it’s properly cooked.

These watches have now come full circle and Digital iWatches are the very latest in high-tech sophistication. The ‘i’ in the name actually stands for ‘invisible’ and these are believed to be the first digital watches on the market which can actually make you disappear from sight.

They obviously have plenty of practical uses such as spying on people taking showers, sneaking into pantomimes and finding out what Silvio Berlusconi gets up to in his spare time.

Probably the best thing about the MyDrone is its ability to kill people you don’t like from the comfort of your kitchen. The only drawback is that the police will often blame you for the murders despite your insistence that the MyDrone must have gone mental.

The SmarterPhone Most normal people are now using up ten different social media tools each day, from Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp and Snapchat to Vine, Pinterest, Instagram and RedXspoT. (Actually, that RedXspoT might be just made up.) The Virgil Profane Institute expects this to increase to about 50 a day by May of this year. And along with phonecalls, texts, emails and actually talking to other human beings, that’s a lot of ground to cover.

As this technology is quite advanced and still currently in prototype form, most of us won’t be able to get our hands on it till June of this year. However, everybody should be invisible by the end of the year.

The Digitial iWatch 2, which will be out in January 2015, also has a transporter facility so you can beam yourself anywhere in the world and a time travel button for the more adventurous amongst us. So not only is the future brighter and getting nearer, it’s also becoming the past and the present.

Garvan Grant bio Garvan Grant is the author of The Trueish History of Ireland which is due out in March 2015. He also runs several million social media accounts for various organisations via his company

But how do you keep track of these? The new SmarterPhone will take care of all of this for you. Like a smartphone only smarter (hence the name), the SmarterPhone will do all your social media for you, leaving you time to be alone, anti-social but probably happier.

GrantEd Media (granted.ie) including, of course, @TrueishHisto-

You just plug the device into your brain via your ear. It then reads what kind of person you are and becomes your very own social

satirical ‘news’ account on Twitter at @garvangrant

ry and @garvangrant. He has written satirical columns for In Dublin magazine and did the hugely popular PostMortem column in The Sunday Business Post from 2004 to 2014. You can contact him on garvangrant@hotmail.com or follow his

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Update on the Personal Insolvency Act 2012 Gerard Nicholas Murphy B.L.

The Personal Insolvency Act 2012 has not exactly got off to a flying start. However, despite much negative publicity, there has been a considerable uptake in the insolvency procedures created under the Act in 2014. Statistics were published by the Insolvency Service of Ireland (ISI) in October 2014. Over 1200 applications for insolvency processes were received by the ISI, 400 Protective Certificates were issued by the Courts, and 300 arrangements have been successfully approved. There were also 301 bankruptcy adjudications by the High Court in the first three quarters of 2014 alone, the majority brought by debtors themselves.

Advising Creditors An Arrangement must get the support of 65% in value of the creditors attending and voting at the Meeting of Creditors (including more than 50% of the secured creditors in the case of a Personal Insolvency Arrangement). If no creditor votes at the meeting, the Arrangement is deemed to be approved. It is important therefore for creditors to attend the Creditors’ Meeting so they can have an input into the Arrangement proposed by the PIP. Those creditors who do attend the Meeting will determine the outcome.

The ISI has recently adopted a Protocol which attempts to standardise the approach to be taken by a Personal Insolvency Practitioner (PIP) when formulating an arrangement.¹ The ISI has also waived its own fees until the end of 2015. Reductions have also been made to court fees for bankruptcy applications. A new website has been set up by the ISI to enhance greater public awareness of the new options under the legislation as alternatives to bankruptcy (www.backontrack.ie). Further activity is likely in 2015.

The three types of Arrangement under the Act are: the Debt Relief Notice (DRN) where a person’s debts do not exceed €20,000; the Debt Settlement Arrangement (DSA) which can deal with unsecured debts only; and the Personal Insolvency Arrangement (PIA) which can deal with both unsecured and secured debts.

The purpose of an Arrangement must be to return the debtor to solvency. This can be done within a relatively short period. The ultimate goal is to return the debtor to solvency, not merely to manage a person’s debts, although this must be done in a way which is fair to creditors as well. The maximum duration of an Arrangement can be between 5-7 years. There is no minimum period and it is permissible for an Arrangement to last a relatively short period so that a debtor’s debts are written off and effectively discharged if this is the only realistic solution for the debtor. As more debtors avail of the procedures under the 2012 Act, it is important for creditors to be aware of their rights and how the Act affects creditors. ¹ http://www.isi.gov.ie/en/ISI/Pages/Protocol_Team

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The ISI on its website sets out the rights of creditors under the Act as follows: the right to information about the debtor’s financial position (the Prescribed Financial Statement, which must be kept up to date); the right to make submissions to the PIP regarding the Arrangement; the right to vote at a Creditors’ Meeting; the right to share in distributions to creditors (generally creditors should be treated equally); the right to object to the granting of (i) a Protective Certificate by the Court and (ii) the sanctioning of an Arrangement by the Court, on limited grounds and within the time limits specified in the Act.

On the other hand, while a Protective Certificate or an Arrangement is in force a creditor cannot initiate any legal proceedings or enforce a judgment, and cannot even contact the debtor except through the PIP. From a creditor’s point of view good communication with the PIP is vital. It is important the PIP has the creditor’s contact details, including email address.

Advising Management Companies Certain debts are classified as excludable debts, including management company fees. These may be included in an Arrangement if the creditor consents or is deemed to consent.

Management Companies enjoy a veto in respect of their debt; however, it is important they are not “deemed” to have consented and thereby lose their veto.

The Creditors’ Meeting Once the PIP has formulated the proposals for an Arrangement, he is required to call a Creditors’ Meeting to approve the Arrangement. Creditors must be given at least 14 days written notice of the Meeting. The notice must contain the date, time and place of the Meeting. The Procedures for the Conduct of Creditors’ Meetings Regulations 2013 (S.I. 335 of 2013) provide for the following general matters. Creditors may vote personally or by proxy at the meeting. The notice of the meeting shall contain a copy of the form of proxy specified in the Schedule to the Regulations. The proxy form must be completed correct “in writing under the hand of the creditor”, or if the creditor is a company “under the hand of the secretary or other person duly authorised by the company”.

Proxies must be delivered to the PIP’s office in advance of the meeting and “no later than 4 p.m. on the last working day before the day on which the Creditors’ Meeting is scheduled to be held”. A proxy may be sent by email to the PIP.

If the PIP proposes to include excludable debt within the Arrangement he must notify the creditor concerned. The creditor is required to respond within 21 days of receiving this notification. If the creditor does not respond it is deemed to have consented.

However, the creditor can still attend the Creditors’ Meeting and object to the Arrangement and vote against.

Advising Landlords The Act does not refer to landlords or lease agreements explicitly.

There are detailed provisions in the Companies Act 1990 dealing with landlords when a company goes into Examinership. However, these protections are absent from the Personal Insolvency Act.

A “connected creditor”² cannot vote in favour of a DSA or PIA. A connected creditor can, however, vote against an Arrangement. A “connected person” means any “relative” of the debtor or a person with whom the debtor is in partnership, or a company controlled by the debtor.

Objecting to the Formal Sanction of the Arrangement by the Court Following the Creditors’ Meeting there will usually be a Confirmation Hearing before the Court. The PIP will formally notify creditors of the outcome of the Creditors’ Meeting, and this notice will include the result and details of the vote taken at the Meeting. The notice will also tell the creditor that it may object to the coming into effect of the Arrangement by lodging an objection with the Court. If the creditor wishes to object, it must lodge its objection with the Court within 14 days “of the date of the sending of the notice” by the PIP. The notice of objection must be in the form prescribed in the Rules of Courts, and be on notice to the ISI and the PIP. A hearing will take place if a creditor objects. ² Section 73 (DSA) and section 108 (PIA)

One provision of the Act, which seems to have gone largely unnoticed, concerns “an agreement with the debtor, other than a security agreement”. Once a Protective Certificate has issued and while it is in force, a creditor who has notice of the Protective Certificate, or a creditor affected by an Arrangement, cannot “terminate or amend that agreement” by reason only “that the debtor is insolvent” or that the Protective Certificate has been issued or the Arrangement is in effect.³ This could affect a landlord under a lease agreement, where a tenant becomes insolvent. This provision would also apply to any contract, particularly hire purchase or leasing agreements.

Unlike the position with Examinerhip, there is no provision prohibiting the PIP from proposing a reduction in the rent due under a lease, even if it contains an upward only rent review clause, or that the rent would not be increased for a definite period. Could this be imposed on a landlord against his will if he is prevented from terminating the lease under the Act? It is important for a landlord to communicate with the PIP. Ideally any proposal should be reached with the agreement of the landlord, if this is not possible a landlord should obtain legal advice before the Arrangement goes to the Creditors’ Meeting for approval. ³ Section 35 (DRN); sections 62 and 79 (DSA); sections 96 and 116 (PIA).

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guarantee. Any liability of an individual in respect of such a guarantee could be included within the terms of an Arrangement as a contingent debt.

Advising Unsecured Creditors

The other way landlords could be affected is in relation to personal guarantees given by directors in respect of company leases. If a company becomes insolvent a landlord may wish to enforce the

The final observation to make is the need for unsecured creditors, in particular, to be receptive to proposals put forward by a debtor and his PIP towards a possible Arrangement under the Act. If an Arrangement is not a practicable solution for a debtor, one of the alternatives may involve an informal arrangement with his secured creditors. Unsecured creditors will have no input in an informal process and will be denied any benefit, no matter how small, that might have been available to them in a formal Arrangement. It is better, from an unsecured creditor’s point of view, that the debtor uses the formal process provided for under the legislation rather than negotiating in secret with his banks.

Gerard Murphy Bio Gerard Nicholas Murphy was called to the Bar in 2004. He previously worked as a Judicial Research Fellow at the Commercial Court. He is the co-author with Prof Irene Lynch-Fannon of Corporate Insolvency and Rescue (Bloomsbury, 2012). Gerard practises in the areas of commercial, company, insolvency and civil law in Cork and Dublin.

CPD Events Manning Financial provides CPD events regularly for solicitors, accountants, GP’s and other service professionals. The topics covered at these events include business protection, partnership insurance, inheritance tax relief, Section 785 cover, GMS scheme for GP’s, financial implications of the civil partnership and certain rights & obligations of cohabiting couples, pension adjustments orders, prudent investment of compensation/personal injuries and the administration of estates.

Upcoming Manning Financial CPD Events. Click on link for event details and co-presenters

Date

Venue

Group/Society

12:00 - 3:00 pm

Clarion Hotel, Cork

CPD Jump Start

5th of Feb 2015

12:00 - 3:00 pm

Manor West Hotel, Tralee

CPD Jump Start

8th of April 2015

12:00 - 3:00 pm

Imperial Hotel, Cork

Open to All

29th of January 2015

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Time

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Range of Services Protection

Savings & Investment

• • • • • • •

• • • •

Mortgage Protection Term Insurance Serious illness Income Protection Life Cover with tax relief (Section 785) Group Income Protection Group Death in Service

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Visit us at

www.manning-financial.ie

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Lump Sum Investments Bonds Structured Products Savings Plans

Specialist Advice • • • • • • •

Business Protection Partnership Insurance Inheritance Tax Relief and Estate Planning GMS Scheme for GP’s Financial Services for Cohabiting Couples Pension Adjustment Orders Employee Benefit Schemes

www.cpd.ie

Tel: 021 2428185 | 087 8315054

info@manning-financial.ie

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