INNERSANCTUMVECTORN360™|PERSONOFTHEYEAR

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS ISSN 2833-0455

TABLE OF Radiography of Putin’s Years

4

AI AS PERSON OF THE YEAR DR. LINDA RESTREPO

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BEYOND BORDERS: THE SILENT SURGE DAVID M. LUNA The Power of the Dark Side AI MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN DR. LINDA RESTREPO

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AI according to XI Jinping

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PERILS OF DOMAIN Why thePAROCHIALISM United States Must Win the AI Race COLONEL PETER M. ATKINSON

MLSECOPS CYBER SENTINEL DR. IGOR VAN GEMERT

CONTENTS

TABLE OF

123 139 167 185 201 Radiography of Putin’s Years

Y2Q COMPUTER CRISIS OR Y2K REVISITED BRIAN LENAHAN

CHINA’S DIGITAL BATTLEFIELD COL (DR) INDERJEET SINGH

The Power of the Dark Side

NON-KINETIC STRATEGIC ENDGAME WARNINGS ROBERT McCREIGHT

AI according to XI THE RISE OF NEW Jinping GLOBAL ALLIANCES DR. LINDA RESTREPO

ARAB SPACE AGENCIES Why the United DR.States MOHAMED Must Win the AI Race AL-ASEERI EBRAHIM

CONTENTS

We proudly announce our Person of the Year, and it's a choice that challenges traditional definitions.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), a transformative force that has reshaped industries, revolutionized technology, and sparked discussions about the future, is our selection. AI's impact on our world is undeniable, and as a global technology publication, we believe it’s essential to recognize the driving forces behind innovation, even when they blur the lines between personhood and technology.

AI's remarkable ability to respond to and recognize human emotions, often surpassing human capabilities, raises profound questions about its consciousness and place in our world. The ongoing debates surrounding AI sentience, ethics, and rights underscore its role as a catalyst for change and progress.

Furthermore, AI has proven to be a companion to those who seek connection, providing solace and interaction to lonely individuals. It serves as a wellspring of knowledge, offering responses to questions that were once shrouded in mystery.

AI is a tireless educator, facilitating learning and expanding horizons. Moreover, AI is a true life-saver, playing critical roles in the field of medicine and the military. In medicine, AI accelerates the discovery of new treatments, aids in the diagnosis of diseases, and enhances patient care, ultimately saving lives.

On the battlefield, AI innovations contribute to safer operations, protecting the lives of our servicemen and women.

As we celebrate AI as our Person of the Year, we invite our readers to contemplate the complex and evolving relationship between technology and humanity. AI embodies the o p e r est f spirit of innovation and R a e d i Lin or in Ch collaboration, challenging our Edit perceptions and pushing the boundaries of what’s possible

Artificial Intelligence is

That’s why

our choice for Person of the Year.

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Today’s global security landscapes are characterized by convergence: the merging and blending of an ever-expanding array of bad actors and threat networks. In an interconnected world, the pipelines linking illicit industries and criminalized ecosystems cut across borders, infiltrate and corrupt public institutions and legitimate markets, penetrate fragile governments, and undercut the interests and security of all market stakeholders across the international community.

In this globalized, networked world, the uneven application of cross-border enforcement enables bad actors and threat networks to exploit governance gaps, enable corruption, arbitrage differences in regulatory policies, and manipulate chaos and insecurity to extract maximum illegal profits and expand illicit economies.

China is an adversary with numerous geopolitical ambitions that threaten U.S. national security interests. However, China can also be a responsible partner working with the United States where national interests align to do good in our world including safeguarding the peace, promoting shared prosperity, and addressing today’s transnational illicit threats.

But before the United States can embark on encouraging China to shutdown illicit trade flows and tackle unfair trade and business practices, it is important to have an understanding of the increasingly diverse array of market security threats that China continues to inspire across borders. These threats are harming U.S. national interests, including our economic competitiveness internationally, and also have had a considerable impact domestically on our businesses and the well-being of our citizens.

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The effects of illicit trade and illicit economies are multifaceted. Corruption and illicit finance are at the core of these complex cross-border issues, and corrode the underpinnings of democracy, good governance, clean markets and supply chain security, and economic development efforts. They also impede progress on human rights and implementation of national sustainability strategies related to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The lucrative criminal activities enabling and fueling the multitrillion-dollar illicit economies include the smuggling and trafficking of narcotics, opioids, weapons, humans, counterfeit and pirated goods; illegal tobacco and alcohol products; illegally harvested timber, wildlife, and fish; pillaged oil, diamonds, gold, natural resources and precious minerals; and other contraband commodities.

Such contraband and illicit goods are sold on our main streets, on social media, in online marketplaces, and on the dark web every minute of every day. The United Nations has estimated that

the dirty money laundered generated annually from such criminal activities is between

5%

2%

and of global GDP, or $1.6 to $4 trillion.

Make no mistake: China today is helping fuel this global illegal economy through the illicit manufacturing and unauthorized exporting of harmful products, such as the chemical precursors to make deadly fentanyl and other opioids, fake goods that can cause great bodily harm or death, and other contraband that hurts our industries, supply chains, and economy.

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Illicit Trade and Illicit Markets Chinese state-sponsored hackers and criminals are stealing the intellectual property (IP) of the United States and American companies. Intellectual property theft and economic espionage of U.S. trade secrets are estimated to be as high as $600 billion annually.

China is responsible for much of this IP crime, hurting American innovation, competitiveness, goodpaying jobs, and economic growth.

Another harm to American interests driven from China’s illegal trade and unregulated economy are the flooding of counterfeits – often times dangerous and toxic fake

products – into US markets including foodstuffs, footwear and apparel, toys, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. This is especially true across ecommerce platforms and internet marketplaces, including third-party sellers and online pharmacies that sell counterfeits and fake medicines that increase the health and safety risks to all American consumers. As the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) underscored in a 2020 report on counterfeits and pirated goods.

China’s Money Laundering, TBML, and CrossBorder Illicit Finance Activities On the Chinese threats related to money laundering including tradebased money laundering (TBML),

John Cassara, Global Financial Integrity (GFI), and board member of ICAIE, has been doing some innovative research on the breath and scale of China’s involvement in money laundering and trade-based money laundering operations globally.

Mr. Cassara characterizes Chinese criminals’ crossborder illicit finance activities as the biggest money laundering hub in the world, introducing and laundering approximately

$2

$1.5

to trillion of illicit proceeds into the world’s licit economy every year.

In other words, according to Mr. Cassara, China is responsible for approximately onehalf of the money laundering in the world today, as measured by China’s/the CCP’s involvement in predicate offenses for money laundering.

The U.S. Department of State similarly recognize China as a global center for money laundering for criminals in the country and from around the world, and notes that “corruption is a major factor in money laundering”.

An estimated $2 trillion representing proceeds in corruption alone have been laundered out of China since 1995.

should not come as a surprise that It

trillions of dollars in illicit proceeds are being generated from the predicate offenses for money laundering that touch China’s jurisdiction and markets.

In both the 2016 report by the Organization of Economic Development (OECD) on counterfeit and pirated goods as well as the 2017 GFI report “Transnational Crime and the Developing World” that outlined some of the top illicit markets, China seems to be the common denominator, with Chinese illicit proceeds dwarfing all others.

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Building on earlier illicit finance methodologies such

Black Market Peso as the

Exchange (BMPE) -- where drug proceeds were used to purchase trade items such as electronics, garments, and toys – money launderers today import cheaply manufactured Chinese goods or counterfeits at overvalued prices to wash criminallyderived dirty money.

There have been major multibillion dollar investigations showing that Chinese authorities actively obstructed justice and did not work with law enforcement counterparts in jurisdictions where money laundering predicate offenses have occurred.

Shadow banking, Chinese underground banking systems (CUBS), the use of mirror accounts, Chinese capital flight, and alternative remittance systems such as

“fei-chein” (flying money) all sometimes use trade-based value transfer. Trade fraud is the largest component of TBML. Trade-based value transfer is a perfect vehicle to transfer money/value in the form of trade goods out of the country by importing goods at overvalued prices or exporting goods at undervalued prices.

China is the biggest trading nation in the world. The magnitude of international trade masks the occasional illicit trade transaction making it very difficult for customs and law enforcement to identify individual instances of TBML. Yet, according to a 2020 GAO report on TBML, Homeland Security Investigations notes that China is one of the countries of most concern.

According to FATF, China has not effectively enforced their antimoney laundering laws which has enabled corrupt officials and criminals to launder cash through

anonymous shell companies and other methods.

For example, recent reporting has highlighted how Chinese citizens are leveraging the “flying money” informal value transfer systems to circumvent the current strict foreign currency controls and personal foreign exchange transaction limits (US $50,000) or smurfing of lesser amounts of the thresholds.

Cybercrime, virtual currency, and online e-commerce have enabled some criminals to convert electronic funds in China into hard currency overseas.

There has been discussion in China on easing of capital controls and whether it will further accelerate money laundering and TBML activities in China.

This is difficult to answer given the growing influence of cryptocurrency and other value transfer systems in licit and illicit transactions, the lack of transparency in China,

and continued weaknesses in fighting corruption and predicate crimes to money laundering. But it is possible that the easing of capital controls across borders could “encourage money laundering and asset-stripping” through the commingling of licit and illicit funds.

In addition to TBML, Chinese criminal syndicates and their money facilitators have laundered great sums of dirty money through the

anonymous shell companies use of

and the purchasing of expensive real estate in the United States, Canada, Europe, UAE, luxurious resort islands, and top offshore destinations such as the British Virgin Islands, Singapore, Cook Islands, and Panama. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), China has continued to exceed all other buyers in the United States both in units and dollar volume of residential housing.

Despite capital flight controls in China, many of the purchases are made in cash. There is also a lack of beneficial ownership information.

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Canada, in particular Vancouver, has also been a favorite place for Chinese organized crime and corrupt officials to launder their

The Expansion of Illicit Economies

“hot money”

A few points on the abuse of free trade zones and how China leverages the Belt and Road Initiative to expand illicit economies around the world.

through real estate and other investments such as luxury sports cars and apparel.

Chinese Organized Crime in Canada is connected to a global network and “has strong linkages to Hong Kong and China, which is a source country for counterfeit goods, contraband tobacco, and chemicals used to produce synthetic drugs, as well as migrants who are smuggled into this country.”

Free Trade Zones and Belt and Road Initiative:

Free Trade Zones (FTZs) can have a catalytic effect on economies, including attracting Foreign Direct Investment and helping to expand economic growth. But in too many parts of the world, those FTZs that are unregulated or unmonitored are exploited on a daily basis by criminals to facilitate illicit activities that produce broader market reputational harm and put the physical security of many communities in danger.

The FATF has identified FTZs as posing a high risk for money laundering and a threat to the integrity of global financial regulatory standards.

For example, as recently reported by the U.S. State Department in this year’s Country Reports on Terrorism, the free trade zones in the Tri-Border Area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay remained regional nodes for money laundering and are vulnerable to terrorist financing.

The reality is that criminals are diligently moving illegal products from FTZs into surrounding markets, evading customs, not paying excise duties, and putting locally manufactured and legitimately imported goods at a competitive disadvantage. Payments for counterfeits being trafficked through the UAE from China and on to Africa may eventually wind up in Panama or Europe, where they then help to fund other types of illegal activity, be it

more illicit trade or other forms of criminality.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious multi-trillion dollar economic development assistance program that is funding massive projects across the developing world including roads, ports, pipelines, electrical power grids, mining, telecommunications, railroads, and other infrastructure.

The licit trade channels and supply chains that the BRI is constructing are also creating illicit pathways exploited by kleptocrats, furthering market penetration by criminals, and contributing to the expansion of illicit economies globally.

The BRI global footprint tracks some of the biggest illicit trade routes known for corruption, money laundering, and the trafficking of narcotics, weapons, counterfeits, humans, illegally mined natural resources, and other contraband.

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4 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 4 1 9

2 3 1 2 1 2 1

The use of AI and data mapping can show overlays of illicit routes and criminal networks and how China is helping to expand and bridge a superhighway of illicit economies globally, exporting forced labor practices, and violating human rights of both Chinese and local workers.

China’s economic exploitation, reliance on cheap labor, and unfair trade practices in BRI projects are against the spirit of free trade, puts U.S. competitiveness at a disadvantage, and the ability of U.S. firms to compete in these markets.

In Africa, Southeast Asia, and other parts of the world, China’s BRI saddles recipient countries with long-term loans. These serve as debttraps that impoverish communities, as kleptocrats line their pockets and pad their offshore accounts while enabling China to expand its influence and control of these countries’ natural resources

and strategic critical infrastructure.

Through its BRI leverage, China’s investments have increased their influence and control of key ports in Latin America and the Caribbean.

China owns and controls 40 major ports scattered throughout Latin America.

Over the past 15 years, Chinese state-owned policy banks have provided close to $150 billion in loan commitments in Latin America, exceeding lending of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), and CAF Development Bank of Latin America combined.

C

hina’s overall investments and

expenses related to the BRI could reach $1.2-1.3 trillion by 2027.

It is critically important to show how Chinese infiltration across corporate America, especially in those companies doing business in China, abusive and intrusive governance, IP theft, lawfare and third-party funded litigation that extort corporate resources and trade secrets from our most innovative companies, and illicit trade in fentanyl and fake goods are hurting U.S. competitiveness and our American industries, supply chains, economy and jobs, and greatly harming the health and safety of our citizens.

Chinese statesponsored hackers and criminals are stealing the intellectual property (IP) of the United States and American companies.

The annual cost to the U.S. economy of intellectual property theft, pirated software, and

of U.S. trade secrets economic espionage

is estimated to be as high as

$600

billion. China is responsible for much of this IP crime, hurting American innovation, competitiveness, good-paying jobs, and economic growth.

As long as China continues to aggressively build a “great wall of steel” as President Xi recently said during the celebration of the 100th anniversary of China’s ruling Communist Party, the United States must be vigilant of its own national interests and hold China accountable. * This article references points made in David Luna’s testimony to the U.S, Senate Committee on Finance.

The full testimony can be accessed at ICAIE.

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We proudly announce our Person of the Year, and it's a choice that challenges traditional definitions.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), a transformative force that hasremarkable reshaped industries, ability to revolutionized technology, Former U.S. diplomat, and sparked discussions about the future, is our White advisor, respond to House and recognize human selection. impact on our world is undeniable, emotions, often AI's surpassing human and senior official at the and as raises a global technology publication, we believe capabilities, profound State Department it’s essential recognize the driving forces behind questions about itstoconsciousness innovation, even when they blur the lines between and place in our world. The ongoing personhood and technology. debates surrounding AI sentience, ethics, and rights underscore its role as a catalyst for change and progress.

David M. Luna

AI's

Furthermore, AI has proven to be a companion to those who seek connection, providing solace and interaction to lonely individuals. It serves as a wellspring of knowledge, offering responses to questions that were once shrouded in mystery.

We proudly announce our Person of the Year, and it's a choice that challenges traditional definitions.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), a transformative force that hasremarkable reshaped industries, ability to revolutionized technology, and sparked discussions about the future, is our respond to and recognize human selection. impact on our world is undeniable, emotions, often AI's surpassing human and as raises a global technology publication, we believe capabilities, profound it’s essential recognize the driving forces behind questions about itstoconsciousness innovation, even when they blur the lines between and place in our world. The ongoing personhood and technology. debates surrounding AIDavid sentience, M. Luna is a distinguished former U.S. ethics, and rights underscore its diplomat, White House advisor, and senior role as a catalyst for change and official at the State Department, recognized progress.

AI's

globally for his strategic leadership in combating illicit trade and international crime.

Serves as the Executive Director of the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE).).His career spans several decades of dedicated service, where he has been instrumental in shaping international security policies and initiatives. Luna's extensive experience includes directing key strategies against transnational threats, leading anticorruption efforts, and engaging in high-level diplomacy. His commitment to enhancing global cooperation and stability, and his profound understanding of geopolitical complexities, Furthermore, AI has proven to be a make him a respected figure in theseek realm of global security and governance. companion to those who connection, providing solace and interaction to lonely individuals. It serves as a wellspring of knowledge, offering responses to questions that were once shrouded in mystery.

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DAVID M. LUNA Former U.S. diplomat, White House advisor, and senior official at the State Department.

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In

a world where 'AI

Moves Up the Food Chain,' we are witnessing a dramatic shift in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. This evolution is not just about AI improving; it's about AI strategically positioning itself, building

:

its 'army’of specialized units, much like a wellorchestrated military operation...”

a world where 'AI Moves Up the Feeding Chain,' we are witnessing a dramatic shift in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. This evolution is not just about AI improving; it'sLinda about AI strategically positioning Restrepo itself, building its 'army' of specialized units, much like a well-orchestrated military operation...”

Linda Restrepo

AI Is Moving Up The Food Chain: In this exploration, we use our title not just as a catchy phrase, but as a metaphor encapsulating the remarkable evolution of artificial intelligence. There is a significant shift in the dynamics of technological ecosystems, where AI is no longer just a passive tool but is becoming a more active and central player.

This narrative goes beyond mere technological improvement; it delves into how AI is fundamentally advancing, altering its role and impact within the technological ecosystem.

This progression is not just about incremental enhancements; it's a story of AI developing newfound

capabilities and stepping into a realm of greater autonomy.

Join us as we unravel how AI is not just climbing but redefining the ladder of technological dominance.

WE’LL start with an analogy between the recent developments in AI technology and military strategies. In military operations, the use of smaller, specialized units (platoons) to carry out specific tasks in support of the larger mission is a well-established strategy.

These units are often more agile, can respond quickly to changing conditions, and are tailored to specific operational needs, much like the smaller AI models (TinyML) being created by larger AI systems.

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In this context, the larger AI models can be likened to a central command structure that orchestrates the overall strategy and objectives. They create and deploy these smaller, specialized AI units to handle specific tasks more efficiently and effectively than a larger, general-purpose force could. This mirrors military tactics where smaller units are deployed for reconnaissance, targeted strikes, or specific operations, supporting the broader goals of the larger force.

In

This mirrors military tactics where smaller units are deployed for reconnaissance, targeted strikes, or specific operations, supporting the broader goals of the larger force.

Our flow chart is in a military style, depicting AI creating smaller AI programs to complete an overall mission.

The prominent AI central unit is at the top and each smaller units is depicted branching out from the central AI.

this context, the

larger AI models can be likened to a central command structure that orchestrates the overall strategy and objectives.

They create and deploy these smaller, specialized AI units to handle specific tasks more efficiently and effectively than a larger, general-purpose force could.

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This analogy presents the significance of the latest AI advancements. Just as in military operations where the effectiveness of the whole is enhanced by the specialized capabilities of its parts, the AI ecosystem is becoming more robust and capable as

larger models create and deploy these smaller, taskspecific models.

It represents a strategic approach to deploying AI resources, maximizing efficiency, effectiveness, and adaptability.

Our perspective also highlights the strategic thinking behind current AI developments – focusing on specialized, targeted applications of AI that can operate more autonomously and : effectively within their specific domains, thereby enhancing the capabilities and reach of the larger AI systems.

I

n our recent

explorations of artificial intelligence, we have witnessed AI's evolution beyond traditional boundaries.

It's not just about AI learning to independently create programs or develop unique methods of communication anymore.

AI is now transitioning from theoretical concepts to practical, transformative technologies that are reshaping our future.

The journey of AI in mastering the art of software development has been a pivotal aspect of its evolution.

AI systems are no longer mere assistants in coding and

they have begun to autonomously create software, software design;

demonstrating a deep understanding of programming languages and logic.

AI as an independent creator, capable of interpreting complex technical concepts and applying them in real-world scenarios.

Moreover, the advent of AI developed languages and codes primarily through advanced machine learning underscores AI’s capacity for innovation.

This marks a shift from AI as a tool to:

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These developments, while impressive, are mere precursors to the significant leaps recently highlighted in the field.

These novel forms of communication, often not immediately comprehensible to humans, are AI's way of optimizing efficiency in data transmission and processing. This is not just technological advancement; it's a testament to AI's potential for creativity and problem-solving.

This development is groundbreaking.

This evolution is vividly illustrated in the latest research, where large AI models, like those behind

The real-world implications of these smaller AI models are vast. Far from being abstract tech concepts, they hold immense potential in practical applications, ranging from consumer electronics to medical devices. This represents a paradigm shift from AI as a theoretical construct to a practical, tangible technology with far-reaching impacts.

are autonomously generating smaller, taskspecific AI models, known as TinyML. ChatGPT,

It's not merely about AI enhancing its coding or communication capabilities; it's about AI assuming the role of a designer, meticulously crafting and fine-tuning tools for specific functions.

Source Acknowledgment: The advancements and insights discussed in this article are largely inspired by the pioneering work of Yan Sun, CEO of Aizip, and Yubei Chen

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pe “A I fo rmis doe rg si sn es on 't th t o w a Lin te e fu adv it f da rm tur an or Re s.” e o ce; n st i ts i t re po

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In conclusion, these advancements in AI mark a significant stride toward a more autonomous, efficient, and practical realm of AI applications. We are witnessing the opening of new horizons where AI's role in various industries and in our daily lives is not just expanding but also becoming more integral.

It's a new era of technological innovation, where AI is not just evolving but actively shaping our world.

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In conclusion, these advancements in AI mark a significant stride toward a more autonomous, efficient, and practical realm of AI applications. We are witnessing the opening of new horizons where AI's role in various industries and in our daily lives is not just expanding but also becoming more integral. It's a new era of technological innovation, where AI is not just evolving but actively shaping our world.

Linda Restrepo is the Director of Education and Innovation at the Human Health Education and Research Foundation.

With advanced degrees including an MBA and Ph.D., Restrepo has a strong focus on Cybersecurity and Artificial Intelligence. She also delves into Exponential Technologies, Computer Algorithms, and the management of Complex Human-Machine Systems.

She has played a pivotal role in Corporate Technology Commercialization at the U.S. National Laboratories. In close collaboration with the CDC, she conducted research on Emerging Infectious Diseases and bioagents. Furthermore, Restrepo’s contributions extend to Global Economic Impacts Research, and she serves as the President of a global government and military defense research and strategic development firm. She also takes the lead as the Chief Executive Officer at Professional Global Outreach.

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In

an era marked by the

relentless and unforgiving expansion of digital landscapes, the significance of cybersecurity has not just risen; it has skyrocketed to unprecedented, gravitydefying heights. Our interconnected world, woven together by the delicate threads of data, networks, and systems, finds itself teetering on the precipice of constant cyber threats. It's a realm where vulnerability is the norm, and the consequences of a breach can be cataclysmic.

Amid this volatile digital landscape, the emerging concept of MLSecOps, or Machine Learning in Security Operations, has seized the centre stage as a formidable guardian against the everevolving arsenal of cybercriminals.

In the face of relentless attacks, this marriage of machine learning and cybersecurity is our stalwart protector, standing firm as a sentinel of defence.

A

s we navigate the

labyrinthine web of digital systems, we're confronted with staggering volumes of sensitive information, and the need for robust, agile cybersecurity solutions has never been more dire.

Cyberattacks have morphed into formidable adversaries, growing in complexity and frequency. They pose threats not only to organizations but also to individuals, governments, and the very bedrock of critical infrastructure. The stakes have been raised, and cybersecurity has transitioned from a mere necessity to an inextricable element of our daily lives. It forms the very foundation upon which modern society operates.

T

he purpose of this article is

to journey into the nexus of

machine learning and cybersecurity, an alliance that holds immense promise in the quest to fortify our digital defences.

We will meticulously dissect how machine learning elevates cybersecurity operations, rendering them not just efficient but proactive and breathtakingly effective in identifying and mitigating cyber threats. In a world where the digital battlefield is in a perpetual state of metamorphosis, comprehending the pivotal role of machine learning in cybersecurity is not just important; it's imperative. This article, like a guiding beacon, aims to illuminate this crucial facet of MLSecOps.

Section 1: Understanding MLSecops 1.1 Defining MLSecOps and Its Significance Machine Learning in Security Operations, or MLSecOps, doesn't just represent an incremental step; it marks a seismic shift in the realm of cybersecurity.

It's the fusion of cutting-edge machine learning techniques with the traditional fortifications of digital systems and data.

The significance of MLSecOps cannot be overstated – it is the embodiment of artificial intelligence's power, wielded to proactively detect, prevent, and respond to cyber threats in realtime. By meticulously dissecting immense volumes of data and deciphering intricate patterns, MLSecOps enhances the precision and efficiency

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of security operations, leading to a defence that's not just robust but swifter in its response to ever-evolving threats.

1.2 The Evolution Of Cybersecurity And The Role Of Machine Learning The evolution of cybersecurity finds itself intrinsically linked to the rapid digitalization of our world. Conventional cybersecurity methods, reliant on signature-based systems and rule-based approaches, found them-selves outpaced by the ever-increasing sophistication of cyberattacks.

T

his is precisely where

machine learning emerges as the saviour. With the advent of machine learning, the realm of cybersecurity gained the invaluable ability to adapt, learn, and autonomously improve.

Machine learning models transcend conventional boundaries, capable of unearthing anomalies, identifying zero-day vulnerabilities, and predicting based on historical data. In doing so, they usher in a new era, fundamentally revolutionizing our defence mechanisms against cyber threats.

1.3 Challenges of Traditional Cybersecurity Approaches The challenges that beset traditional cybersecurity approaches have been nothing short of relentless.

R

eactivity has been their

unfortunate hallmark, responding to threats only after they've breached defences. These systems, relying on known patterns and static rule sets, proved woefully inadequate against the constantly morphing landscape of novel attacks.

The relentless deluge of data, coupled with the breakneck speed of cyber assaults, overwhelmed human operators.

lifeblood of MLSecOps,

False positives and alert fatigue added to the woes, causing critical threats to slip through the cracks. In this unforgiving context, machine learning in security operations emerged as a game-changer.

Its primary role is not just to analyse but to meticulously scrutinize and process colossal volumes of data, deciphering intricate patterns, spotting anomalies, and identifying potential threats.

It promises to confront and overcome these challenges by introducing predictive and adaptive capabilities that usher in a new era, characterized by proactive and highly effective defence strategies.

In stark contrast to traditional cybersecurity methods, machine learning does not bind itself to predefined rules or rigid signatures; instead, it thrives on adaptability and evolution, seamlessly keeping pace with the ever-changing threat landscape.

Section 2: The Foundations Of MLSecops 2.1 The Role of Machine Learning in MLSecOps Machine learning is the

serving as the formidable engine that drives proactive cybersecurity strategies.

2.2 How ML Algorithms Identify Threats and Anomalies Machine learning algorithms are nothing short of virtuosos in the identification of threats

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and anomalies, rendering this task with unparalleled finesse.

Their excellence manifests in multiple ways: • Anomaly Detection: ML

models establish a baseline of "normal" system behaviour, deftly flagging any deviations from this norm as potential threats or anomalies. This discernment is particularly invaluable for identifying zero-day attacks and previously unknown vulnerabilities.

• Pattern Recognition: ML

algorithms are virtuosos in the recognition of patterns within data that elude human analysts. They uncover hidden correlations and trends across mammoth datasets, laying the foundation for the timely identification of emerging threats and malevolent activity.

• Behaviour Analysis: ML excels in the analysis of user, device, and network traffic behaviour, pinpointing suspicious actions or deviations from the established norms. For instance, it can swiftly identify irregular login times, file access patterns, or data transfer activities, which may serve as red flags for an insider threat.

2.3 Benefits of Using Machine Learning in Cybersecurity The infusion of machine learning into cybersecurity bestows a plethora of benefits: • Proactive Defence: MLSecOps pivots the focus from reaction to action. It identifies and mitigates threats proactively, reducing the dwell time of malevolent forces within a network to an absolute minimum.

• Real-time Analysis: Machine learning algorithms operate in real-time, enabling organizations to respond with unwavering speed to evolving threats and incidents.

• Scalability: ML systems handle the massive volumes of data generated in modern networks, offering scalability that was hitherto inconceivable with traditional manual methods.

• Reduced False Positives: Machine learning models are diligently trained to minimize false positives, thereby eliminating the noise in cybersecurity alerts, and allowing human analysts to zero in on genuine threats.

• Continuous Learning: ML algorithms are on an unending quest for knowledge, constantly learning and adapting, progressively refining their accuracy over time.

They're astute in detecting even the most subtle shifts in the threat landscape.

In this section, we shall dive deeper into these foundational aspects of MLSecOps, highlighting the indispensable role of machine learning in fortifying our cybersecurity strategies.

Section 3: MLSecops In Action 3.1 Real-World Examples of MLSecOps Implementation Machine Learning in Security Operations (MLSecOps) has proven its mettle across a spectrum of real-world scenarios, redefining the way organizations safeguard their digital assets. These illustrative examples underscore the versatility and impact of MLSecOps:

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3.2.1 Threat Detection • Network Anomaly Detection: Numerous organizations have harnessed ML algorithms to maintain real-time vigilance over network traffic. When anomalies emerge, such as an abnormal surge in data transfers or unauthorized access attempts, MLSecOps solutions spring into action, swiftly flagging and launching investigations. Notable exemplars include Google's Beyond Corp, an enterprise security model that employs machine learning to discern irregular patterns in network traffic and thwart insider threats.

• Malware Detection: Antivirus software, turbocharged with machine learning, can not only detect established malware but also identify new, previously unseen threats by scrutinizing suspicious behaviour, file attributes, and code patterns. Industry leaders like CrowdStrike leverage machine learning to detect and pre-empt malware intrusions, thus curtailing the risk of data breaches.

3.2.2 Threat Prevention • Email Security: Machine learning takes centre stage in email security solutions, zealously thwarting phishing attacks through real-time analysis of email content, sender behaviour, and attachments.

Pioneers like Proofpoint deploy machine learning to shield their clients from advanced email threats.

• Endpoint Security: Machine learning models seamlessly integrate into endpoint security solutions, foreseeing and preventing malevolent activity. Organizations like Cylance (acquired by BlackBerry) employ ML to unmask and neutralize threats before they can execute on endpoints, creating an impregnable barrier against malware and other cyber onslaughts.

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3.2.3 Threat Response • Incident Response: ML is indispensable in the realm of incident response, facilitating the swift identification and isolation of compromised systems. Automated incident response platforms, supercharged by machine learning, such as Demisto (now part of Palo Alto Networks), empower security teams to react with unparalleled efficiency.

3.3 Case Studies of Successful MLSecOps Implementation A slew of organizations has leveraged MLSecOps with remarkable success, elevating their cybersecurity defences: • Netflix: The streaming giant deploys machine learning algorithms to enhance content security, rooting out fraudulent activities like account sharing and ensuring the sanctity of user data.

• JPMorgan Chase: The financial behemoth embraces machine learning to fortify its cybersecurity endeavours, ameliorating threat detection while slashing false positives in their security alerts.

• Airbnb: Airbnb employs machine learning within its fraud detection systems, vigilantly guarding both hosts and guests against fraudulent bookings and illicit activities.

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hese case studies stand

as a testament to how MLSecOps has cemented its status as a pivotal component of contemporary cybersecurity strategies. It furnishes organizations with the tools needed to deftly detect, prevent, and react to threats in a world increasingly dominated by digital interactions.

Section 4: Key Components of MLSecOps A formidable MLSecOps strategy integrates several indispensable components to seamlessly weave machine learning into the fabric of cybersecurity operations.

These components encompass: • Data Collection and Storage: The bedrock of MLSecOps lies in the collection of a diverse array of data from multiple sources, spanning network logs, endpoint events, and user behaviour. This rich tapestry of data forms the cornerstone for training and deploying machine learning models.

• Data Pre-processing: The meticulous cleaning, normalization, and preparation of data is an essential phase, ensuring that the quality and accuracy of ML models remain uncompromised.

Activities like outlier removal, handling missing values, and data transformation Mould raw data into a format conducive to machine learning.

• Feature Engineering: The identification and curation of pertinent features or attributes from the data is pivotal for nurturing effective ML models. Feature engineering involves the crafting of new variables and the transformation of existing ones to furnish machine learning algorithms with meaningful inputs.

• Model Training: ML models embark on their journey through the realms of cybersecurity by training on labelled data. This training, rooted in both supervised and unsupervised learning paradigms, equips models to unravel patterns and anomalies within the dataset.

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• Real-Time Data Ingestion: To usher in a realm of proactive threat detection and response, MLSecOps systems operate by continually ingesting real-time data. This instantaneous influx enables the prompt identification of nascent threats and immediate response.

• Alerting and Response: Whenever ML models discern potential threats or anomalies, they promptly sound the alarm. These alerts are the clarion call for security teams to initiate investigations and orchestrate responses, thus minimizing the potential impact of security breaches.

4.1 Importance of Data Collection and Labelling Data collection stands as the bedrock of any effective

MLSecOps strategy, signifying its paramount importance: • Training ML Models: Machine learning models are voracious learners, fuelled by labelled datasets for training.

These datasets, a concoction of normal and malevolent behaviour examples, form the crucible in which models learn to discriminate between the two. The accuracy of threat detection hinges on the quality of these labelled datasets.

• Enhancing Accuracy: Precise data labelling is the linchpin for instructing ML models to recognize emerging threats with unwavering accuracy, a critical facet in the everevolving landscape of cybersecurity, where adversaries continually refine their tactics.

• Historical Analysis: Labelled data serves a dual purpose – not only does it power machine learning but it also serves as a lens for historical analysis, offering insights into the nature of past threats and their mitigation.

• Relevance: It disentangles the relevant features from the labyrinth of data, permitting ML models to focus on what truly matters. Redundant or inconsequential features are ruthlessly pruned, enhancing model performance and computational efficiency.

• Compliance and Reporting: Pristine data collection and labelling align with data protection and reporting regulations, upholding transparency and accountability within security operations.

• Dimensionality Reduction: Feature engineering, akin to a sculptor, chisels away excess data dimensionality, making it more manageable and allowing ML algorithms to navigate with dexterity.

4.2 Role of Feature Engineering in Training ML Models for Cybersecurity Feature engineering, often the unsung hero, plays an indomitable role in shaping the effectiveness of ML models for cybersecurity:

• Enhanced Model Performance: By crafting features that encapsulate the nuanced aspects of cyber threats, feature engineering elevates the accuracy and efficacy of ML models, enabling them to unveil anomalies and threats with unrivalled precision.

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• Adaptability: This crucial facet of MLSecOps ensures that feature engineering remains dynamic and flexible, capable of accommodating shifts in the threat landscape, thus guaranteeing the continued efficacy of ML models in unmasking new and evolving threats.

In this section, we undertake an immersive exploration of these pivotal components that make MLSecOps a formidable guardian of the digital realm, underscoring the vital role they play in harnessing the potential of machine learning for cybersecurity.

Section 5: Challenges and Limitations 5.1 Challenges and Limitations of MLSecOps The journey of Machine Learning in Security

Operations (MLSecOps) towards bolstering cybersecurity is not without its formidable challenges and constraints: • False Positives: MLSecOps, like any security system, can generate false positives, erroneously flagging benign activities as threats. These false alarms have the potential to inundate security teams, leading to alert fatigue and a subsequent reduction in MLSecOps effectiveness.

• Adversarial Attacks: Cyber adversaries are increasingly employing strategies to outwit machine learningbased detection systems.

Adversarial attacks can manipulate input data to deceive ML models, eroding their reliability in the face of resolute adversaries.

• Data Quality: The efficacy of MLSecOps is profoundly linked to the quality and quantity of training data.

Incomplete, biased, or outdated data can result in less accurate threat detection.

• Interpretable Models: Many machine learning models, particularly deep learning models, can be enigmatic and challenging to interpret.

This opacity can hinder the understanding and trust in the decision-making process of MLSecOps. • Data Privacy Concerns: MLSecOps necessitates access to large volumes of sensitive data, giving rise to concerns regarding data privacy and compliance with regulations like GDPR and HIPAA. 5.2 Ongoing Research and Development to Overcome Challenges

Undeterred by these challenges, researchers and cybersecurity experts are actively engaged in an ongoing quest to surmount these limitations: • False Positive Reduction: Pioneering research endeavours focus on finetuning ML algorithms to minimize false positives through superior feature selection, advanced anomaly detection techniques, and ensemble methods that amalgamate multiple models to enhance accuracy.

• Adversarial Defence: Tenacious efforts are invested in fortifying ML models against adversarial attacks. These initiatives encompass the creation of robust models and the development of techniques for detecting adversarial manipulations.

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• Data Augmentation: To mitigate data quality concerns, researchers are forging ahead with techniques for data augmentation and cleansing. These methods serve as the lighthouse to ensure that training data remains diverse and representative.

• Explainable AI (XAI): The quest for making ML models more interpretable and transparent is unrelenting. Explainable AI (XAI) research seeks to shed light on why a model arrives at a particular decision, thereby amplifying trust and comprehension.

• Privacy-Preserving ML: Trailblazing innovations in privacy-preserving machine learning enable organizations to harness the power of ML while

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adhering to data privacy regulations. Techniques such as federated learning and homomorphic encryption are gaining prominence.

In this section, we will embark on a journey through the ongoing research and development in MLSecOps, aimed at resolving these challenges and limitations. This relentless pursuit ensures that machine learning continues to be the bedrock of enhanced cybersecurity without compromising security or privacy.

“

“ Linda Restrepo

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Section 6: Best Practices for Implementing MLSecOps 6.1 Tips for Organizations Integrating MLSecOps into Their Cybersecurity Strategy Effectively weaving Machine Learning in Security Operations (MLSecOps) into the fabric of your cybersecurity strategy demands a thoughtful and strategic approach. Here are some indispensable best practices for organizations contemplating this integration: • Define Clear Objectives: Embark on your MLSecOps initiative by meticulously defining your objectives. A profound understanding of the specific threats you intend to address and the outcomes you anticipate is paramount.

• Data Quality Matters: Invest unwaveringly in highquality, diverse, and meticulously labelled training data. The calibre of your data leaves an indelible mark on the efficacy of ML models.

• Select the Right Algorithms: Carefully handpick machine learning algorithms that seamlessly align with your security use case. Different algorithms thrive in varying scenarios, so harmonize your selection with your objectives.

• Continuous Learning: Appreciate that MLSecOps is an ongoing odyssey. In a world where cyber threats mutate ceaselessly, your ML models must adapt accordingly. Regularly infuse them with fresh knowledge through retraining and updates to preserve their potency.

• Collaborate Across Teams: Foster a culture of collaboration between your cybersecurity and data science teams. The success of MLSecOps is predicated on the synergy between the profound cybersecurity expertise and the prowess of machine learning.

6.2 Importance of Continuous Monitoring and Model Updates The tumultuous landscape of cyber threats mandates constant vigilance through continuous monitoring and model updates: • Continuous Monitoring: Cyber threats materialize without warning, necessitating ceaseless vigilance. Continuous monitoring empowers MLSecOps systems to pinpoint and thwart emerging threats in real-time.

• Model Updates: The adaptability of machine learning models is critical to their enduring effectiveness.

Fresh data, nascent threats, and shifts in network behaviour compel regular model retraining and refinement.

• Feedback Loops: Forge resilient feedback loops connecting your cybersecurity teams with data scientists. The insights gleaned from security incidents provide the compass for model updates, elevating threat detection to new heights.

6.3 The Need for Skilled Personnel in Cybersecurity and Machine Learning The triumphant integration of MLSecOps hinges on the presence of skilled personnel proficient in both the domains of cybersecurity and machine learning:

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• Cybersecurity Experts: These stalwarts possess an intimate comprehension of security threats, vulnerabilities, and incident response.

They navigate the intricate implementation of MLSecOps, harmonizing it with your organization's distinct security exigencies.

• Machine Learning Specialists: Data scientists and machine learning engineers are the architects of ML models, instrumental in their development, training, and maintenance. They possess an innate understanding of the nuances of feature engineering, model selection, and hyperparameter tuning.

• Cross-Training: Deliberate cross-training initiatives within your organization can serve as a bridge uniting cybersecurity and machine learning.

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This approach fertilizes a soil where collaboration thrives, streamlining the implementation of MLSecOps. In this section, we have delineated a roadmap of best practices for organizations contemplating the integration of MLSecOps into their cybersecurity strategy.

Adhering to these tenets will not only harness the full potential of machine learning in security operations but also fortify an organization's capability to tackle evolving cyber threats with finesse.

Section 7: Future Trends in MLSecOps 7.1 Emerging Trends in MLSecOps The realm of Machine Learning in Security Operations (MLSecOps) is in a perpetual state of

transformation, driven by the relentless evolution of the cyber threat landscape.

Several burgeoning trends are sculpting the future of MLSecOps:

• Adversarial Machine Learning: As adversaries grow more sophisticated, MLSecOps must fortify itself against adversarial machine learning attacks. Ongoing research and development are dedicated to erecting resilient models capable of withstanding manipulation and deception.

• Explainable AI (XAI): The demand for transparency and interpretability in ML models is steering the adoption of Explainable AI (XAI) within MLSecOps. XAI techniques illuminate the

decision-making process, fostering trust and empowering security experts to better comprehend and act upon model outputs.

• Zero Trust Security: The Zero Trust security paradigm, predicated on the absence of implicit trust for users or systems, both internal and external, is gaining ground.

MLSecOps assumes a pivotal role in enforcing and surveillant access controls, anomaly detection, and threat prevention in the Zero Trust realm.

• Edge Computing Security: With the proliferation of IoT devices and edge computing, MLSecOps is extending its domain to shield decentralized, distributed systems.

•

Infusing machine learning at the edge facilitates real-time threat detection and response in remote locations.

and response will become the new normal, curtailing response times and mitigating potential harm.

• Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration: MLSecOps is forging tighter bonds with threat intelligence feeds. This synergy enables organizations to remain vigilant about the latest threat indicators and patterns, heightening the efficacy of ML models in detecting and mitigating emerging threats.

• Federated Learning: Organizations are embarking on the exploration of federated learning to train ML models on decentralized data sources while preserving data privacy. This approach facilitates collaborative threat detection across multiple organizations without the need to expose sensitive data.

7.2 MLSecOps Evolution and Adaptation MLSecOps stands on the precipice of further evolution and adaptation in response to new challenges: • Enhanced Automation: As ML models attain greater sophistication, automation will step into the limelight in the arena of threat response.

Automated incident analysis

• Quantum-Safe Cryptography: The advent of quantum computing presents a potential threat to existing encryption methods.

MLSecOps will pivot to integrate quantum-safe cryptography, erecting a formidable shield to protect data from quantum attacks.

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• Collaboration and Information Sharing: MLSecOps will increasingly draw strength from collaboration and information sharing among organizations and industries to bolster collective cybersecurity defences. Platforms and alliances for sharing threat intelligence will proliferate.

• Regulatory Compliance: In the ever-evolving landscape of data privacy regulations, MLSecOps will be called upon to adapt and ensure compliance. Techniques like differential privacy will be harnessed to shield sensitive data during ML model training.

In summation, MLSecOps is an ever-evolving field poised to rise to the challenges presented by a constantly shifting threat landscape. By embracing emerging trends and technologies, MLSecOps will assume a pivotal role in

safeguarding digital ecosystems against an increasingly sophisticated array of cyber threats. The future is not merely a prospect; it's a canvas where the masterpiece of enhanced cybersecurity is waiting to be painted.

Section 8: Conclusion In a world characterized by the relentless expansion of digital landscapes, the emergence of Machine Learning in Security Operations (MLSecOps) stands as a pivotal force in the ongoing battle against cyber threats.

This article has delved into the multifaceted realm of MLSecOps, casting light upon its profound significance, foundational principles, realworld applications, challenges, and best practices.

Crucial insights gleaned from this exploration include:

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• MLSecOps represents a

• While MLSecOps holds

quantum leap in cybersecurity, harnessing the potential of machine learning to proactively identify, prevent, and respond to cyber threats. It embodies a transformative evolution in the field of digital defence.

immense promise, it is not without its challenges, including the spectre of false positives, the resilience to adversarial attacks, and concerns surrounding data privacy. However, a dedicated and ever-evolving research and development ecosystem is ceaselessly striving to surmount these challenges.

• The shortcomings of traditional cybersecurity methodologies, typified by false positives and reactive strategies, can be effectively mitigated through MLSecOps, which relies on data-driven, real-time analysis to secure digital ecosystems.

• Successful organizations have wholeheartedly embraced MLSecOps, implementing machine learning for threat detection, prevention, and response across various domains, from safeguarding network integrity to fortifying endpoint security.

• The implementation of MLSecOps demands a thoughtful, strategic approach, emphasizing the paramount significance of establishing clear objectives, curating high-quality data, and nurturing a cadre of skilled personnel who bridge the chasm between cybersecurity and machine learning.

As our digital tapestry grows more intricate, and cyber threats continue their inexorable advance, the importance of MLSecOps cannot be overstated. It empowers organizations to shield their digital assets with an unparalleled blend of precision, agility, and efficiency.

In summation, we strongly advocate for organizations to invest wholeheartedly in MLSecOps as an indispensable pillar of their cybersecurity strategy. This investment promises to buttress their security posture, allowing them to adroitly adapt to new threats and safeguard a digital future that is safer for both themselves and their stakeholders. In the ever-shifting sands of the contemporary threat landscape, MLSecOps is not a mere option; it is a compelling necessity.

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DR. IGOR VAN GEMERT PhD in virtual reality technologies,

With roots in artificial intelligence and a PhD in virtual reality technologies, his work truly brings the future to our doorstep. As the entrepreneurial force behind numerous successful startups, Van Gemert constantly pushes the boundaries of the possible, turning tomorrow's visions into today's realities.

His monumental contribution to smart cities simulation through 'Sim CI' revolutionized our approach to urban planning and sustainability. Yet, this was just one piece of the larger puzzle. Van Gemert's open-source authorship of the OCHP protocol has placed him in the annals of EV history.

His innovative ideas have left an indelible footprint on every EV-powered car across the globe, establishing the OCHP protocol as the definitive standard in electric mobility.

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Is

there a correlation

between 20th-century air domain and 21st-century space domain functions? If so, can the space domain benefit from the air domain lessons? Air Defense, naval aviation, and close air support were the most contentious 20th-century air domain functions. Analyzing these functions led to the identification of seven characteristics termed herein as domain parochialism.

Domain parochialism is defined as a limited, selfabsorbed outlook relating to the land, maritime, air, and space domains. This article argues that domain parochialism explains why the close air support innovation was the most contentious case study, despite requiring the least resources and organizational change to adopt. To mitigate domain parochialism, military services must: be receptive to integrating forces under another service; support organizational change efforts;

avoid displaying domain preeminence over another domain; think beyond traditional roles and domain boundaries; focus on the purpose of the effect, not where it is generated from; embrace performing collateral military functions; and conduct joint research, development, testing, and evaluation for capability development.

Without adequate mitigation, domain parochialism will stymie capability development and delay innovation adoption.

Overcoming domain parochialism is essential for the Defense Department to succeed in 21st-century warfare.

Air defense, naval aviation, and close air support were the most contentious 20th-century air domain functions. The tumult surrounding these functions exhibited domain parochialism that inhibited timely innovation adoption.

Domain parochialism is defined herein as a limited, selfabsorbed outlook relating

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to the land, maritime, air, and space domains. Domain parochialism is often purported to reduce duplicate capabilities; however, the air defense, naval aviation, and close air support case studies illustrate that it had the opposite effect. Domain parochialism stymied capability development, delayed innovation adoption, and was the underlying source of contention. This article suggests there is a strong correlation between the 20th-century air domain and the 21st-century space domain functions because they both involve the creation of a new military service and a further delineation of roles and responsibilities.

F

ollowing the

establishment of the Air Force and Space Force, functions and priorities were redefined.

This historic change showcased domain parochialism among the other services and the parallels between the air

and space domains are noteworthy.

General Giulio Douhet, an early 1900s airpower theorist, “initiated a fundamental debate, never resolved, over whether airpower is unique and revolutionary or whether it is just another arrow in a soldier's or sailor's quiver – and thus evolutionary.” The airpower theory debate is central to domain parochialism.

On

one side, there is

an argument that airpower will be unique and revolutionary, and, on the other side, that air forces will be an extension of surface forces. These contrasting views frame the 20th-century airpower debate, and they correlate with the 21st-century space power debate. Upfront, it is important to highlight that domain parochialism is not unique to a particular service, or a specific period, but rather to major innovation and large-scale organizational change

like the Air Force establishment.

This article consists of four parts: (1) case study research framework and military functions overview; (2) the air defense, naval aviation, and close air support case studies; (3) air and space correlations and space domain implications; (4) summary and conclusion.

While analyzing air defense, naval aviation, and close air support functions, the paper captures how these air domain functions interrelate with space domain functions such as tactical intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance (ISR), space control, and satellite communication. This interrelatedness becomes increasingly noticeable as the studies progress.

Using a descriptive, historical research approach, the cases were analyzed using a sixstep process: (1) provide the background and key events; (2) expand upon the innovation and organizational change; (3) examine the

contentious issues; (4) identify influential change agents; (5) explain how the contentious issues were resolved; and (6) address future implications.

The cases were selected because they include an innovation that transformed the air domain, involved contentious issues spanning multiple years, and exhibited domain parochialism. These innovations would have been adopted earlier and the military would have been more effective sooner had domain parochialism been mitigated at the outset.

The National Security Act of 1947, which created the Air Force, and the Key West Agreement, which defined military functions, are two of the most significant structural changes to the military in the 20th century. These changes serve as the foundation for the 21st-century space power debate. In 1948, the Department of Defense defined a military function as a service’s responsibilities, missions, and tasks. Today, the Defense Department defines a military function as

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a service’s responsibilities, missions, and tasks.

Today, the Defense Department defines a military function as “the broad, general, and enduring role for which an organization is designed, equipped, and trained.”

In the Key West Agreement and the Department of Defense Directive 5100.01, which articulate military functions, an attempt to mitigate domain parochialism is made by giving services primary functions, without precluding services from performing collateral functions.

However, the military services

lost sight of this, and domain parochialism ensued.

Case Studies This section presents case studies of three innovations: air defense, naval aviation, and close air support. This article argues that domain parochialism explains why the adoption of close air support was the most contentious of these three, despite requiring the fewest resources and and organizational change to adopt. Figure 1 displays domain parochialism, as an independent variable, in correlation with innovation adoption time, the dependent variable. On the left side of the figure, domain parochialism consists of seven characteristics.

On the right side, innovation adoption time is displayed.

The air defense case spans 13 years from the Soviet atomic bomb test in 1949 to the LeMay-Decker Agreement in 1962. The naval aviation case spans 21 years from the USS Langley commissioning in 1922 to the Navy adopting carrier doctrine in 1943. The close air support case spans 28 years from Executive Order 9877 in 1947 to an Army-Air Force close air support understanding agreement in 1975.

Air Defense The Key West Agreement tasks the Air Force “to provide land-based air defense in coordination with other services in matters of joint concern.” In 1948, at the time of the conference, ballistic missiles could threaten the United States, but the threat was not existential.

In 1949, the Soviets successfully tested an atomic bomb and developed a bomber aircraft capable of traversing the Arctic.

T

he atomic bomb test

presented an existential threat and created a vast sense of urgency to act. This prompted a renewed focus on continental air defense, and Air Force leadership instructed Major General Ennis Whitehead, the Commander of the Continental Air Command, to “consider air defense his command’s most important mission.”

Without existing air defense technology, the Defense Department sought to collaborate with academia.

Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology were identified because of their computer science expertise.

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The Massachusetts Institute of Technology was selected because Harvard expressed reservations about supporting classified defense programs.

With a burgeoning defense partnership, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology created its Lincoln Laboratory to oversee the air defense system program.

Development of the SemiAutomatic Ground Environment air defense system, or SAGE as it became known, was underway, and the Air Force recognized it needed Army and Navy support to be successful. However, the services disagreed on how to proceed.

Army and Navy apprehension to integrate forces under the Air Force was one of the contentious issues surrounding air defense.

The Army envisioned two separate systems, whereas the Air Force preferred a single system. The Army also sought to retain control of its antiartillery battalions and not assign them to the Air Force Continental Air Command.

The Air Force countered by stating that "air defense was an operation of integrated components in which each contributed to the total operation, and each was employed in conjunction with the others.” Resistance to early integration needlessly prolonged the air defense innovation.

Air Force collaboration with academia at the outset of the SAGE air defense system was important.

General Gordon Saville, the Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Development, “intuitively believed that technology still on the drawing board or in the laboratory could eventually be developed and incorporated in a modern air defense system.” Saville’s outreach to academia connected him with Dr. George Valley, a prominent Massachusetts Institute of Technology physicist who is credited with the SAGE air defense system planning, development, and employment. The defenseacademia partnership helped reduce domain parochialism by rapidly expanding research, development, testing, and evaluation efforts.

The Air Force requirement for Army and Navy support was unique to the air defense case.

Simply stated, the Air Force could not go at it alone.

In August 1950, the Air Force and the Army signed the Vandenberg-Collins Agreement, which accounted for increased integration between the two services.

Expanding upon the Vandenberg-Collins Agreement, air defense functions were divided among the services in support of a single command: “the Army was assigned point defense surface-to-air missiles; the Air Force area defense missiles; and the Navy and Marine Corps responsibility for weapon systems to carry out their assigned functions.

Wolf, “The United States Air Force,”

In 1954, the Joint Staff established the Continental Air Defense Command with the Air Force as the executive agency. Next, the Air Force and the Army signed the LeMay-Decker Agreement in 1962 to establish a single commander responsible for continental air defense. This division of labor minimized domain parochialism and allowed each service to support air defense.

T

he air defense case

study suggests three factors that could minimize domain parochialism in the 21stcentury: a clear, common threat (such as the Soviet atomic bomb test), defenseacademia partnerships to develop and integrate emerging technologies, and a unified command structure that allowed services to seamlessly integrate forces.

Additionally, the VandenbergCollins and LeMay-Decker Agreements embodied the Key West Agreement spirit by allowing the Air Force to perform its primary function without excluding the Army and the Navy from performing collateral functions. Next, the naval aviation case study will prove more contentious than air defense and it hearkens back to the early days of aviation.

Naval Aviation In November 1910, Eugene Ely, an exhibition pilot, made history by being the first pilot to operate an aircraft from a cruiser outfitted with an 83foot platform. Two months later, Ely took to the skies again, and this time he became the first pilot to successfully land an aircraft aboard an armored cruiser.

Building upon the Wright Brothers' historic flight in 1903, Ely’s demonstrations became the proof of concept for naval aviation. Over the next decade, the Navy iterated upon these inaugural flights as it modified ships to advance naval aviation. Next, the Navy commissioned its first aircraft carrier, the USS Langley, in March 1922.

W

hile the British

developed the first aircraft carrier, it was the United States that perfected aircraft carrier operations, which culminated with its World War II carrier doctrine. Before the aircraft carrier, the battleship was the centerpiece of the United States Navy fleet. Dr. Michael Horowitz, a political scientist, emphasizes that “given the five-hundred-year history of the naval gun determining control of the seas, and subsequent devotion to the battleship by

both naval officers and the public at large, it is remarkable that the carrier replaced the battleship as the beating heart of successful naval organizations within a single generation.” While the rate of change was remarkable, adopting naval aviation did not come without domain parochialism.

Unique to naval aviation, the Navy benefited from 25 years of internal discourse before the Air Force was established. This discourse allowed the Navy to hone its argument in favor of naval aviation before the Key West Agreement.

From World War II onward, the aircraft carrier has been the Navy’s capital ship and the core of naval power. In 1943, the Navy adopted its multi-carrier task force doctrine, which served as the blueprint for aircraft carrier operations in the Pacific. The Key West Agreement later codified naval aviation

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functions by directing the Navy to "organize, train, and equip Navy and Marine Forces for the conduct of prompt and sustained combat operations at sea, including operations of sea-based aircraft and their land-based naval air components." While the naval aviation debate was settled at the time of the agreement, an episode labeled the revolt of the admirals would resurface debate artifacts. This included the Air Force's concern that the Navy wanted to encroach on its strategic air warfare mission and the Navy’s concern that the Air Force wanted to eliminate carrier airpower. While neither of these fears came to fruition, contention surrounding naval aviation traces back to the World War I aftermath. Credited with being one of naval

aviation’s earliest pioneers and, later, one of its staunchest opponents, General William Mitchell offered conflicting views that intensified domain parochialism. In the 1920s, Mitchell was “advancing the theory that airpower had made all surface ships other than aircraft carriers obsolete,” which spurred senior Navy leadership to look more closely at naval aviation.

Concurrently, he was “calling for an independent air service with a monopoly of all military aviation.”

Likely influenced by Mitchell’s comments, Rear Admiral William Moffett testified before Congress in 1928 that “supremacy in the air is of no use to anybody except as it affects conditions on the surface beneath.”

His testimony challenges the belief that airpower alone can win a war. Moffett, a distinguished sailor, proved to be naval aviation’s most influential change agent. He set the conditions for the Navy to adopt the aircraft carrier innovation while serving as the Navy’s first Director of Naval Aviation and Chief of the Bureau of Aeronautics. Moffett also transformed Navy promotions by insisting that only naval aviators were to command aircraft carriers. This decision ensured that the purpose of aircraft carriers, to complement airpower, was not lost.

S

ome scholars do not fully

account for Moffett’s pivotal role in the Navy adopting naval aviation. Dr. Jeffery Barlow, a military historian, emphasizes that “the revolt of the admirals proved pivotal for the future of naval aviation.” Furthermore, Horowitz relegates

Moffett’s naval aviation role to tabletop experiments and Navy promotion structure changes. Moffett’s official biography offers a more accurate characterization, stating that he was “more experienced in all types of aircraft, seaplanes and big airships than any admiral in any navy in the world.”

Moffett transformed the Navy’s mission to account for naval aviation through effective communication and demonstration. The Navy’s World War II experience also mitigated domain parochialism by providing other military services with concrete naval aviation examples.

In naval aviation history, the revolt of the admirals episode surfaces as one of the more contentious issues. With a catchy moniker and highprofile resignations, the event is an aberration rather than an actual threat to naval aviation.

Dr. Warren Trest, a military historian, provides an overview surrounding the revolt, which was initiated in 1949 after the Secretary of Defense canceled the Navy's $188 million supercarrier program. In the truest sense of domain parochialism, the Defense Secretary acted on the opinion that the Navy supercarrier would be redundant to Air Force strategic bombers.

To make matters worse, the decision was announced without notifying or consulting the Navy Secretary, John Sullivan, who was “outraged and bitter over the handling of the matter and resigned in protest.” This revolt had a minor impact on naval aviation as funding for the supercarrier was delayed but ultimately approved.

The naval aviation case study displays three domain parochialism characteristics: (1) emphasizing domain preeminence over another domain; (2) overestimating

traditional roles and domain boundaries; and (3) focusing on where an effect is generated instead of the purpose of the effect.

Fortunately, the Navy overcame each characteristic as it successfully adopted naval aviation. The revolt of the admirals episode resurfaced aspects of the naval aviation debate; however, the 14-month budget spat proved insignificant overall.

Next is the close air support study, which shares many similarities with naval aviation.

Close Air Support The Key West Agreement states that the Air Force is “to furnish close combat and logistical air support to the Army.” It also states that the Army “includes land combat and service forces and such aviation and water transport as may be organic therein.”

Varying Key West Agreement interpretations provided

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services with sufficient ambiguity to act in selfinterest, which led to domain parochialism. Rather than focusing on how to integrate Army aviation as a collateral function, the Air Force sought to prevent the Army from conducting close air support altogether.

Furthermore, instead of relying on the Air Force, the Army sought to develop its own close air support capabilities despite explicit prohibitions.

T

hroughout the 20th

century, the primary disagreement between surface and air forces has been ownership and control of airpower on the battlefield.

This disagreement is most noticeable in close air support, as Air Force leaders likely reflected on General John Pershing’s claim that “an air force acting

independently can of its account neither win a war at present time nor, as far as we can tell, at any time in the future.”

As the senior military leader in the 1920s, Pershing had immense influence throughout the War Department. His comments undercut prominent airpower theorists, such as General Douhet, who suggested that “the country controlling the air would also control the surface.” Even though Pershing remained skeptical of airpower’s role in warfare, he did support the creation of an air corps with the Army.

T

hroughout the 1930s

and 1940s, the Army continued to develop fixedwing aircraft and began to explore rotary-wing aircraft technologies. General Jacob Devers, as a member of the Joint Research and Development

Committee, reflected on his World War II experience and frustrations surrounding artillery rounds being wasted, which he attributed to a lack of fixed-wing liaison aircraft.

To address this problem, he desired to supplement the Army’s fixed-wing aircraft with helicopters.

In the early 1960s, the Howze and Disosway boards would reshape the close air support debate. The Army position, from the Howze Board, suggested that the Air Force was not responsive to its close air support requirements and that ground forces should command pilots.

The Air Force position, from the Disosway Board, suggested that the Army failed to consider joint operations and the Army is most effective when it utilized Air Force assets.

Next, General John Paul McConnell, the Chief of Staff of the Air Force,

commissioned a close air support study to determine if a capability gap existed and how to resolve it. Following the boards and the McConnell study, the McConnell-Johnson Agreement was signed.

This agreement lifted Army prohibitions to develop close air support capabilities, and, by the 1970s, “the Army's helicopter force provided a large degree of the close air support required by the Army.” The Army’s attack aviation inventory rapid growth, coupled with the Vietnam conflict, prompted the two services to sign the first agreement of understanding delineating close air support roles.

Close air support is the only case study in which one service focused on preventing another service from performing a collateral function. This domain parochialism characteristic proved the most antagonistic, and it was the least congruent

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with the Key West Agreement. A 1971 Rand Corporation study suggests that “the tendency of the Air Force to emphasize its separateness and its enhanced status, coupled with its emerging preeminence among the services, disquieted not only the Army but the Navy as well, and led to continual struggles among the services over the roles and missions

.” While

crass, this statement bears a hint of truth.

General Curtis LeMay recounts “airpower was misused in the Korean War as flying artillery.

The bomber fleet, he felt, should be preserved for the supreme strategic campaign against the real enemy’s heartland.” In contrast, “Army leaders, impressed with the light close air support planes of World War II and Korea, kept pressure on the Air Force to develop a dedicated, light, subsonic, close air support

plane that could operate from forward fields and could be controlled by ground commanders at lower levels.”

Lieutenant General Hamilton Howze proved decisive in shaping the McConnell-Johnson Agreement in 1966 and the Army-Air Force Close Air Support Understanding Agreement in 1975.

In 1962, Howze spearheaded the Army Tactical Requirements Board in response to Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara’s memorandum to the Army to “completely reexamine its quantitative and qualitative requirements for aviation.” In parallel, the Air Force established its board with Lieutenant General Gabriel Disosway as the presiding officer.

Following the Howze and Disosway boards, in 1962 the Defense Secretary instructed the Air Force and the Army to conduct a joint close air support study and have the Joint Staff

Committee, evaluate the concepts. While both services claimed joint study success during the early testing of their concepts, the Vietnam conflict ultimately led the Defense Department to side with the Army. Vietnam created a sense of urgency that prompted McNamara “to retain the new air mobility division and make it a replacement for the 1st Cavalry Division.”

This spurred the McConnellJohnson Agreement and, ultimately, the Army-Air Force close air support understanding agreement. The Howze Board report became

“bible of airmobility,” as the

it embodied the fundamental belief that the Army is more effective when using its aircraft. Howze left an indelible mark on the Army and the close air support debate by advancing airmobility theory and doctrine.

Pinpointing the Air Force's close air support investments between 1947 and 1975 is complicated because its aircraft performed two or more functions. In 1975, the A-10C Thunderbolt was developed as its first aircraft specifically designed for close air support.

Before the Thunderbolt, the Air Force opposed the development of an aircraft that could only perform one function. Instead, the Air Force built aircraft to support three missions in priority order: air superiority, air interdiction, then close air support. With close air support being its third priority, the Army expressed dissatisfaction with the Air Force's close air support capabilities.

The most contentious issues surrounding the close air support debate were resolved through compromise and concession. Ultimately, the Air Force lost its monopoly on close air support, and the

Army gained close air support as a collateral function.

Intense domain parochialism spanned decades and the characteristics include overemphasizing traditional roles and domain boundaries; focusing on where an effect is generated from instead of the purpose of the effect; obstructing a service from performing collateral military functions; and narrowing research, development, testing, and evaluation for capability development.

The most IMPORTANT LESSON is to not preclude another service from performing a collateral function.

The blurring of traditional domain boundaries must be normalized in the 21st century, and services will have to encroach into multiple domains to be successful in a multi-domain environment.

Space Domain Implications Political scientists point to a wide range of causal factors leading to heightened contention and domain parochialism. When comparing the three air domain case studies, a single theory does not provide a thorough, consistent, or complete explanation for case variations. Horowitz offers his adoption-capacity theory. He argues that “once states have the necessary exposure to an innovation, the diffusion of military power is mostly governed by two factors: the level of financial intensity required to adopt a military innovation, and the amount of organizational capital required to adopt an innovation.”

Among the air domain cases, the adoption-capacity theory would suggest that close air support should be adopted more rapidly than naval aviation.

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Close air support involved the least organizational capital and financial intensity, yet its diffusion rate was the slowest.

This article argues that, among like functions, domain parochialism is the independent variable that accounts for the innovation diffusion variations over time, the dependent variable.

Simply put, innovations that require a lot of resources and organizational change ought to be more difficult to adopt.

Applying Horowitz’s theory and moderate cost estimates, naval aviation should be the most contentious case study, followed by air defense, then close air support.

Considering the degree of domain parochialism and the amount of time it took to resolve, the exact opposite is true. For the three air domain case studies, perhaps leadership experts offer greater fidelity as to the source of contention.

Dr. W. Warner Burke, an organizational change expert,

explains the role of leadership in large-scale organizational change. He states that

“from a sociological perspective success of an organization largely depends on external factors”.

These are factors that are beyond the control of leaders such as economic, historical, and technological factors. In addition to external factors, he also emphasizes that an insufficient sense of urgency impedes organizational change.

External factors and a sense of urgency were significant in all three case studies. It was the Soviet atomic bomb test that created a sense of urgency to construct the nation’s first air defense system. World War II created the conditions for the aircraft carrier to replace the battleship as the Navy’s capital ship.

Finally, the Vietnam conflict altered the close air support debate by cutting short the Howze and Disosway experiments and deploying an air-mobility battalion.

Another organizational change expert, Dr. John Kotter, addresses sociological dimensions in his book The Heart of Change. He concludes there are eight steps for successful large-scale change: increase urgency, build the guiding team, get the vision right, communicate for buy-in, empower action, create shortterm wins, do not let up, and make change stick.

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here is a correlation

between Kotter’s model for organizational change and the case studies; however, there are discrepancies in the sequencing of innovation adoption. Beyond the model, he also makes a crucial point regarding culture. Kotter states that “in a change effort, culture comes last, not first.”

This was true for the three case studies, and it is particularly important for the Space Force as it seeks to define its service culture and priorities.

The inaugural Space Capstone Publication wrestles with Space Force priorities, stating that the “employment of military space forces must enable the lethality of the Joint Force and provide national leadership with independent options for achieving national objectives; however, any loss of space domain freedom of action compromises the other two responsibilities.” The publication goes on to state that because of this, “preserving freedom

of action in space is the essence of military space power and must be the first priority of military space forces.”

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This change in prioritization represents a historic shift that will have ripple effects among the other services and in the other domains. The subtle yet historic change reflects an updated purpose for the Space Force, but it is not true for all space forces.

It is prudent for space forces assigned to other services to continue to prioritize enabling terrestrial forces above preserving freedom of action in space. In 1920, when Moffett stated that “supremacy in the air is of no use to anybody except as it affects conditions on the surface beneath,” his comments were myopic. While his point might be true from a naval perspective, it is not the case in the broader context of warfare.

Air and space supremacy should not be solely bound to affecting terrestrial conditions just as maritime supremacy is not solely bound to affecting land conditions. Thinking in these terms exhibits domain parochialism—that one domain has preeminence over another. The Space Force must pay close attention to this domain parochialism characteristic because most space capabilities are designed to affect terrestrial conditions.

As more space capabilities shift to affect conditions in the space domain, the fundamental reason for the existence of space capabilities will need to evolve.

As war extends into space, the Space Force must be cognizant of the evolving character of warfare without overemphasizing revolutionary claims. Early airpower theorists overemphasized aircraft as being “qualitatively different from any weapon that had come before.” War extending into the air domain changed the character of war but was bound to the timeless principles of war. Historically, war involves nine principles: objective, offensive, mass, economy of force, maneuver, unity of command, security, surprise, and simplicity. Just as orbital mechanics is bound by the laws of physics, a war in space is bound by the principles of war. Conforming to the principles of war should not diminish the significant role of space in warfare.

Pershing’s comments in 1920 that an independent Air Force could not win a war at the present time, or any time in the future, share Moffett’s narrow perspective of the air domain. In the 21st century, it is irresponsible to assume that wars in the future cannot be won, or lost, in any domain. Similarly, it is irresponsible to think that capability advancements in one domain render the capabilities of another domain obsolete. Mitchell’s comment that airpower made all surface ships, other than aircraft carriers, obsolete illustrates this point. Pejorative generalizations such as these fuel domain parochialism and diminish trust among services.

The Space Force is unique among services because of its imbalance between system operators and system users.

Most Space Force system operators provide space support to users in other services in terrestrial domains.

This imbalance emphasizes the need for greater integration between the Space Force and other services.

Building upon this imbalance, the Space Force must embrace adjacent service space forces and space capabilities.

Some space capabilities ought to transition to the Space Force, but not all. Lessons from the air domain case studies highlight the value of other services contributing to the success of another. The naval aviation case study demonstrated how aircraft carriers played a vital role in airpower, complementing the Air Force.

Other service capabilities are particularly beneficial because they address capability gaps among the domains. The Space Force benefits the most by encouraging other services to maintain space forces and develop space capabilities.

Domain parochialism must be mitigated to embrace this mindset because it directly impacts other services.

As the largest user of space capabilities in the Defense Department, the Army has an interest in the space domain. This also necessitates a high degree of cooperation and trust between the Army and the Space Force. Major General Robert Dickman, as the Director of Space Programs for Air Force Acquisition, shed light on the role of trust when he spoke about the

future of space activities in the early 1990s. Dickman stated that “the reason the other services perhaps do not trust the Air Force to run the entire space show is because our service has not always distinguished itself in space matters, and the Army and Navy can claim that they are using space applications better than the Air Force.” Without casting aspersions on the Air Force’s defense space program management, the second half of his statement requires a closer examination.

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ickman’s comment

regarding the Army and Navy's claims that they are using space applications better than the Air Force (now Space Force) is perplexing. This circles back to the system operation and system user imbalance discussion. The preponderance of space system users are the Army and the Navy, and as such, they ought to be the most proficient

space capability users. The Space Force should empower adjacent military services to be the most proficient space capability users. This will promote trust between the operators who provide space capabilities and the users who require them to conduct joint operations.

G

eneral John Raymond,

the Chief of Space Operations, speaks to this point in his foreword from the Space Capstone Publication. He states that “as we grow space power theory and doctrine, we must do so in a way that fosters greater integration with the Air Force, Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. It is only by achieving true integration and interdependence that we can hope to unlock space power’s full potential.” With an end strength of 480,000 active-duty soldiers, it is easy to see why the Army is the largest user of space capabilities by sheer volume.

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o ensure proper utilization

and integration of space capabilities across the service, the Army relies on

400

full-time space operations officers.

In addition to its space officers, the Army augments the force with a cadre of over

5,000

space enablers who completed space training and have relevant space experience.

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rmy space officers

differentiate themselves from Space Force space officers because their focus is to utilize and integrate space capabilities in support of ground forces. The Army overcomes the system operator and system user imbalance by creating a shared understanding and common lexicon among space officers.

As the Space Force increases its focus to preserve freedom of action in space, the Army should increase its focus on the utilization and integration of space capabilities.

This includes the development of tactical satellites. The Army is exploring tactical satellites with the Gunsmoke-J experiment, which is “designed to provide information or sufficient data relative to tactical decisionmaking that is delivered in a timely manner.”

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ikewise, the Space

Force intends to develop space-based tactical ISR. With tactical satellites becoming more affordable and operationally relevant, Raymond stated that “there’s a role here for the Space Force and tactical-level ISR.” With both services expressing interest, it is imperative to foster cooperation not competition.

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For the Army, tactical satellites offer greater space capabilities to ground forces. For the Space Force, tactical satellites enhance freedom of action in space by providing volume and diversity of its space systems.

For both services to succeed promptly, overcoming domain parochialism is essential. Both services ought to heed the following recommendations. The Space Force should promote and encourage the Army to conduct tactical satellite operations as a collateral function. The Army should request Space Force assistance in performing tactical satellite operations. The Space Force should pursue opportunities to integrate forces within the Army to support tactical satellite operations. The Army should request Space Force support for joint research, development, testing, and evaluation.

The Army should leverage the

Space Force acquisition expertise. Both services must avoid emphasizing domain preeminence over another domain, overemphasizing traditional roles and domain boundaries, or focusing on where an effect is generated from instead of the purpose of the effect.

This advice comes from synthesizing the three air domain case studies and will prevent years, if not decades, of dysfunctional discourse. The proliferation of tactical satellites ought to follow a path like unmanned aerial systems did in the early 2000s.

The widespread use of unmanned aerial systems, particularly tactical systems operated by ground forces, did not threaten the Air Force’s role in warfare, it complemented it—just as naval aviation complemented airpower decades before. Tactical satellites, operated by any service, complement rather than threaten the Space Force’s role in warfare.

The key point is to recognize service biases that can lead to domain parochialism and mitigate them at the earliest possible opportunity. Tactical ISR is one example, but there are other areas the Army ought to invest in alongside the Space Force.

similar forces and capabilities; however, they will have different purposes in the operations they conduct.

For satellite communication and position, navigation, and timing areas, the Army should focus on integrating Space Force capabilities.

As the Space Force looks to develop space systems to provide Of the ten space operations and a capability, the Army must look associated capability areas at the user systems. This consists outlined in the joint publication for of satellite receivers with features space operations, the Army unique to the ground segments. should invest in the following four areas: tactical ISR; space control; There must be a symbiotic satellite communication; and relationship between Space Force position, navigation, and timing. system operators and Army These areas best enable ground system users to fully harness the forces to conduct joint nation’s space capabilities. The operations.

Space Force ought to embrace the Army as a principal user of its The Gunsmoke-J demonstration space capabilities, and the Army supports tactical ISR requireought to leverage Space Force’s ments mentioned previously. For domain expertise. space control, the Army should retain organic forces to deny Like the Army, the Navy shares a adversaries the ability to utilize rich history in space. From its space capabilities in support of ballistic missile program in the ground forces. As with the close 1950s to establishing the maritime air support debate, the Army and the Space Force will likely share

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space officers career field in 2022, the Navy has made significate contributions in space.

Among the notable contributions is the development of highly elliptical orbiting communication satellites. This service-specific requirement—to ensure submarines can effectively communicate in the Arctic— emphasizes the benefit one service affords to another.

Today, the Air Force and the Army benefit from satellite communication across the Arctic region.

The Navy is emphasizing that maritime space officers are “uniquely qualified to integrate joint space capabilities into maritime plans and operations.”

Maritime space officers will make sure to account for naval equities as they relate to the space domain. The naval perspective also broadens the space system user profile, which is not accounted for by other terrestrial forces.

The Marine Corps is also increasing its space cadre with a focus on utilizing and integrating space capabilities. Creating an additional military occupational specialty for its space officers and the Marine Corps Forces Space In the coming years, the Navy will Command establishment are two transfer operations of its satellites recent developments. to the Space Force; however, it will retain portions of its research The air domain labs that focus on space. With the transfer of its satellites, the Navy teaches another useful will increase its focus on lesson regarding pilots integrating space capabilities. and aircraft. Since the historic first flight in 1903, each With the creation of maritime military service has looked at space officers, the Navy is aircraft through a lens that is mirroring Army space officers. shaped by their domain.

Today, each service has pilots and aircraft unique to itself. The diversity in pilots and aircraft contributes to the overall Air Force segment. The same will be true for space. In the future, all services must have organic space officers and satellites, just as they do pilots and aircraft. Overcoming domain parochialism will make this reality less contentious and play a vital role in space power that is complementary to the larger Space Force segment.

Conclusion If left unchecked, tactical ISR, space control, and satellite communication are the space domain functions that will most likely succumb to domain parochialism.

services performing

collateral military functions; and conducting joint research, development, testing, and evaluation for capability development. These actions will prevent stymied capability development and innovation adoption delays throughout the services.

While the nature of war has remained unchanged, its character has evolved. As wars expanded into the air domain in the 20th-century, warfare was bound to the same timeless principles of war.

The 20th-century case studies provide essential lessons that are relevant to 21st-century warfare.

To avoid this, the services must An unfortunate example harkens be receptive to integrating forces back to the revolt of the admirals under another service; supporting when senior military leaders told organizational change efforts; the Secretary of Defense that a avoiding displaying domain supercarrier would be redundant preeminence over another to strategic bombers. Regardless domain; thinking beyond of whether the advice was traditional roles and domain warranted, it was provided boundaries; focusing on the without consulting the Navy purpose of the effect, not where it Secretary, whose domain the is generated from; embracing outcome affected the most.

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PETE ATKINSON Colonel, U.S. Army – Space Professional – Green Beret

Domain parochialism is the reason air defense, naval aviation, and close air support were the most

contentious air domain functions of the 20th century, and why close air support was the most protracted and contentious innovation to adopt.

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ontention surrounding the

air defense, naval aviation, and close air support case studies stymied the timely acceptance of air domain innovations that, once adopted, forever shaped the character of war.

Petty inter-service fighting likely resulted in the loss of lives of service members who would have benefited from them. Often disguised as minimizing redundancy and limiting duplicity, domain parochialism is a far worse byproduct than two services acquiring similar capabilities. To avoid the perils of domain parochialism, military services must work together to expand collateral functions and develop capabilities accordingly.

This will allow the Defense Department to thrive in multidomain operations and succeed in 21st-century warfare.

COL Pete Atkinson is the Space Division Chief at the Headquarters, Department of the Army. He embarked on his military career as an Infantry Officer and distinguished himself as a Green Beret, having completed the Special Forces Qualification Course. Throughout his service, COL Atkinson held various key positions, including assignments with the 5th Special Forces Group (Airborne), Special Operations Command - Central, and the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School.

In addition to his impressive military background, COL Atkinson earned a Master of Arts in Global and International Studies from the University of Kansas and a Bachelor of Arts in History with a Certificate in Ethnic Studies from Florida Atlantic University. He is a graduate of prestigious institutions such as the Senior Service College, Joint Forces Staff College, and Command and General Staff College.

His notable awards and decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, and Master Space Badge.

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In 1998, the world was gripped by the fear of the Y2K crisis, a computer bug that many believed would wreak havoc on global systems as the calendar rolled over to the year 2000. W. Michael Fletcher, in his 1998 book 'Computer Crisis 2000' forewarned of the potential catastrophe that could result from computers failing to recognize the new year date. However, the crisis never materialized, not because Fletcher was wrong, but because the world prepared for it. Fast forward to the present day, and a new countdown is underway— Y2Q (Years to Quantum), the day when quantum computers may crack today's encryption.

In

that same year of 1998, I

was working at a major North American Bank. The ramp up in resources in terms of people, funding, hardware, and software to address Y2K was incredible.

Unlike any other global initiative (in this case in terms of the bank ecosystem) I had ever experienced.

While keeping the core business going, bank staff engaged in committee after committee to ensure that every system and every piece of code (in priority order) was addressed before the dreaded midnight hour. Banks and every other business around the world will soon face the same kind of dilemma with Y2Q.

Quantum’s Day Since the emergence of artificial intelligence in business, particularly with the advent of OpenAI's ChatGPT-3.5 in November 2022, the technological landscape has been evolving at an unprecedented pace. With over 100 million users within two months of launch, the AI industry has experienced exponential growth, transforming various sectors with generative AI applications for images, text, voice cloning, and more.

Quantum technologies, too, are on the horizon of a transformative moment.

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Y2Q

, or the day

when quantum computers can potentially breach today's encryption, is looming on the horizon. Ken Dobell, CMO of Ottawabased quantum security firm Quantropi, Inc., states that the countdown to Y2Q is on.

In fact, the clock established by the Cloud Security Alliance is ticking down to its’ notional date of April 14, 2030.

David Shaw, of Global Quantum Intelligence, in a State of Play podcast suggested that the quantum security event could occur as early as 2027.

Quantum Cryptography and Its Tools Quantum cryptography, a subfield of quantum information theory, has seen significant advancements since the 1980s.

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ey establishment and

digital signatures play pivotal roles in ensuring secure communication. Key establishment, or key exchange, allows two parties to agree on a shared secret key, ensuring confidentiality and data integrity. Digital signatures, on the other hand, verify the authenticity and integrity of data. Protocols like DiffieHellman and RSA key exchange are integral to these cryptographic techniques.

The National Institute of Standards & Technology (NIST) in the U.S. has been actively working on algorithms to secure computers from quantum attacks. After a multi-year competition, MLKEM(CRYSTALS-Kyber) is the chosen algorithm for key establishment, while MLDSA(CRYSTALS-Dilithium), SLH-DSA (SPHINCS+), and FALCON are selected for digital signatures.

T

he progress of

these protocols can be tracked on NIST's Quantum Standardization page, yet we still operate in an environment where the acceptance of PostQuantum Cryptography (PQC) or Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) strategies varies globally and corporately in 2023.

The race to milestones, such as the number of qubits and market revenues, marks the path to the Quantum ChatGPT moment.

Achieving significant quantum adoption, high-profile use cases, and substantial market size are potential triggers for this transformative moment.

However, the uncertainty surrounding quantum progress in

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The 2023 calls for continuous evaluation of these milestones for organizations seeking a competitive advantage in the quantum technology landscape.

As quantum technologies progress, certain specific milestones could mark a 'ChatGPT moment' for the quantum industry. The achievement of 1,000 qubits as called for by Atom Computing and IBM's pursuit of 100,000 logical qubits are noteworthy. With a functional fault tolerant quantum computer (FTQC), Y2Q arrives.

Should RSA-2048 and similar encryption schemes fall prey to quantum computers of the future, what are the implications?

Without a protective quantum

shield layer, such entities may expose their confidential data to any bad actor with an FTQC. In today’s world, few companies understand the implications of quantum, let alone what ‘quantum’ means.

The quantum industry has a long way to go to give breadth to the understanding of consumers, businesses, and governments alike.

The Role of Media in Y2K and Y2Q A study on the perception and use of hype in media communication within the quantum physics field reveals a complex relationship between scientists, corporations, and marketing departments. Hype can have both positive and negative consequences, influencing public interest, investments, and potential risks. Social media today is influencing perceptions and discussions around quantum technologies.

I

n 1998 the media began

playing a significant role in highlighting the looming risk of Y2K. In fact WIRED magazine said “1998 was the year the world woke up to Y2K”. The magazine’s New Year’s Eve headline at the end of 1998 was titled “The Year We Noticed Y2K Tired of the millennium bug already? Don't be.

Technology's turning point will dominate the news in 1999. Stockpiling food may even become chic.”

Stockpiling food?

Fletcher in Computer Crisis 2000 pointed to errors in calculations, sorting, presentation, leap year adjustments, date formatting, and business functions as just a few of the potential pitfalls. And while he was calling out these challenges, the United Nations was convening summits, stock markets tried to bolster

confidence as investors turned to gold, and the US Federal Reserve announced it would print $50-70 billion in additional greenbacks in case Americans began to stockpile the currency. Journalists filled their newspapers with Y2K content daily, reinforcing the inherent risk in a society so dependent upon computers, even in 1998.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are seen as enablers for more efficient analysis of social media data. Yet is there a consequent risk of faster, less researched reports when global challenges like Y2Q arise?

Social Media's Impact on Quantum Technologies

information travels through social media is unparalleled.

Quantum technologies gain international attention within minutes, shaping public awareness and driving adoption. Influencers and user-generated content further impact consumer behavior, creating a groundswell of support or cynicism for new quantum products and services.

In 2023, social media's impact on quantum technologies is profound. Platforms like LinkedIn and Substack connect scientists, business leaders, and governments, shaping public opinion and expectations.

A

Harris Poll indicates that

80% of business leaders anticipate an increase in social media budgets, emphasizing the importance of social media data and insights in informing business strategy.

T

he speed at which

Claims of breaking RSA 2048 arrive simultaneously with skepticism and fear.

The feedback loop provided by social media enables developers to refine products based on user

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experiences, fostering usercentered design or mediacentred challenge. When even industry experts disagree daily on the progress being made, how are average consumers, business, and government leaders to discern quantum’s reality?

In the era of immediate information sharing, social media has become an integral force in shaping the narrative

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around quantum technologies. From the rapid dissemination of breakthroughs to influencing consumer behavior, social media platforms play a crucial role. However, the study of quantum hype reveals a nuanced relationship, with scientists recognizing both the benefits and risks associated with hyping quantum advancements. It underscores the need for discernment in interpreting quantum news and finding credible sources in a landscape where misinformation can thrive.

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Conclusion We started this article asking the question will Y2Q be a Computer Crisis or Y2K Revisited?

In the evolving landscape of quantum technologies, Y2Q represents a crucial juncture where the security of current encryption methods may be compromised.

While uncertainties exist regarding the progress of quantum technologies, and the actual date of Y2Q, social media plays a pivotal role in shaping perceptions and discussions. As the world anticipates potential milestones that could define the Quantum ChatGPT moment, organizations must stay informed, engage in ethical practices, and be prepared for the transformative impact of quantum technologies on our future.

Copyright 2023 Aquitaine Innovation Advisors

Brian Lenahan is Founder & Chair of the Quantum Strategy Institute, an international think tank devoted to the acceleration of the adoption of quantum technologies. Brian is a global pioneer in quantum leadership theory and the commercializa-tion of quantum technologies, consulting to large corporates. He is a six-time author of books dedicated to the commercial advance of artificial intelligence and quantum technology . A former North American financial services executive, Brian integrates that business experience with advanced technologies, regularly speaking at conferences around the world.

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Digital era has transformed communication-social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, Clubhouse and Instagram, along with messaging applications such as WhatsApp, Signal and Telegram, play essential roles.

These tools enable individuals to stay connected with friends and family, sharing various content, including pictures, videos, messages, and posts capturing experiences. Social media has emerged as a medium for influencing societal dynamics and shaping public opinion.

E

ngaging in activities like

sharing posts, expressing ideas through tweets, Clubhouse Rooms, participating in discussions on forums, and conveying sentiments through pictures and audio allows individuals to exert influence over others and, at times, persuade them to align with their perspectives.

In this digital landscape, our ability to connect and communicate has expanded, providing new avenues for the dissemination of ideas and the moulding of collective viewpoints.

Utilization of cyber tools and techniques to manipulate public opinion is termed 'Cyber

Influence Operation.' In today's context, numerous countries leverage cyberspace, particularly social media, to carry out Cyber Influence Operations as part of Information Warfare.

A

significant portion

of these operations is conducted covertly, making it challenging to distinguish between legitimate and malicious influence operations.

In the vast expanse of the digital age, where information flows at the speed of light, Influence warfare, often synonymous with information

or hybrid warfare, represents warfare

the strategic use of information, disinformation, and various communication tools to shape perceptions, manipulate opinions, and achieve specific geopolitical or strategic objectives.

I

t transcends traditional

military tactics, extending into the realm of psychological and social manipulation on a global scale. China, like other major powers, employs influence warfare as a means to assert its influence, protect its interests, and advance its geopolitical agenda.

China's presence in cyberinfluence operations stands as a significant force to be reckoned with. As we navigate the complex and interconnected web of the digital world, it becomes imperative to grasp the role China plays in shaping narratives, influencing opinions, and wielding power in the cyber domain.

I

nfluence operations aim

to shape the perceptions of individuals, groups, and the public at large. The U.S. is currently deeply concerned about the proliferation of pro-Chinese propaganda within the country. Russia stands out as the most active participant in this domain, employing various methods, notably through social media.

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hina aims to play a

pivotal role in influencing the existing international system.

As a national strategic objective, China engages in influence operations, targeting media organizations, cultural institutions, academic, business, and policy communities not only in the U.S. but also in other countries and international institutions.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) endeavours to shape public opinion and influence foreign and multilateral political establishments to embrace China’s narrative concerning its strategic priorities.

Understanding Cyber Influence Operations The term 'Influence Operations' lacks an official definition. It encompasses a wide array of non-kinetic, communications-related, and informational activities with the

objective of impacting the cognitive, psychological, motivational, ideational, ideological, and moral aspects of a target audience. China perceives the cyberspace domain as a platform that offers opportunities for conducting influence operations.

Cyber-Influence Operations leverage modern digital tools such as 'bots' and social media. The primary emphasis is on utilizing cyberspace to mould public opinion and influence decision-making processes through the deployment of social bots, dark ads, memes, and the dissemination of misinformation.

Manipulation of information and the spread of disinformation pose profound challenges to democratic processes,

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with cyber influence capable of swaying public opinion and affecting election outcomes. Cyber influence extends its reach to matters of national security, with potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, economic systems, and geopolitical stability.

•

Multi-Faceted Tactics. Influence operations incorporates a spectrum of tactics, including disinformation campaigns, propaganda dissemination, cyber operations, media manipulation, and psychological operations.

The goal is not only to achieve military advantage but also to mould public opinion, sway political decisions, and undermine adversaries.

•

Strategic Narrative. Central to influence operations is the crafting and dissemination of strategic narratives. These narratives aim to control the narrative surrounding a specific event, issue, or geopolitical situation, steering public perception in a direction favourable to the perpetrator.

• Non-Kinetic Approach.

Unlike traditional warfare, influence operations rely heavily on non-kinetic means.

The battleground is not physical but rather the minds and perceptions of individuals, both domestically and internationally.

China's Role in CyberInfluence Operations China has utilized cyber

operations as a means to exert influence over adversaries and potential partners.

T

he repetitive penetration

of Taiwanese networks by China is part of a broader effort to apply economic and military pressure on Taiwan, aiming to diminish its autonomy. Numerous network operations have been undertaken by China to intimidate sub-state actors, particularly those associated

with its "Five Poisons": Tibetan separatism, Uighur separatism, Falungong activity, Taiwanese independence, and prodemocracy activism. The implementation of sophisticated operations against dissident groups suggests that China perceives their suppression as a high priority, deeming it worth the potential risk of international backlash, as these groups pose threats to China's internal stability.

Cyber-Influence Operations, encompasses strategies aimed at influencing individuals through the integrated application of advanced computational and social manipulation techniques. China's conception of CyberInfluence Operations is articulated as follows:

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"Cyber media warfare is a form of combat operations utilizing the Internet as the platform. Targeted information infiltration is conducted through Internet media to influence the convictions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes of the general public, effectively controlling public opinion conditions, shaping robust public opinion pressure, deterring adversaries, and securing an overwhelming public opinion posture for one's own side."

People's Republic of China (PRC) conducts influence operations to achieve outcomes aligned with its strategic objectives.

• These operations target

policy communities, cultural institutions, media organizations, businesses, and academics in the U.S., as well as other countries and international institutions.

• The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aims to shape the perspectives of domestic, foreign, and multilateral political establishments and influence public opinion to embrace Beijing's narratives.

• People's Liberation Army (PLA) organizations responsible for information operations include the Central Military Commission (CMC), particularly the Joint Staff Branch and its Intelligence Bureau, the Political Work Division's Liaison Branch, the Office

for International Military Cooperation, the Strategic Support Force, and PLAcontrolled media enterprises.

• Chinese authorities

extensively restrict access to internet sites deemed subversive through the Great Firewall of China.

Why China Utilizes Influence Warfare China perceives disinformation operations as a potent strategy for advancing its government's foreign policy objectives. In disseminating disinformation, China deliberately engages in extensive operations to produce and reproduce false or misleading information with the aim of deceiving.

T

he People's Liberation

Army (PLA), the State Council, and the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Central Committee actively participate

in organized Information Operations, whether on domestic or international platforms. China leverages technological advancements, incorporating 'deep fakes,' 'deep voice,' and artificial intelligence (AI) on Chinese social media.

I

t is crucial to discern the

political intent and national strategies underpinning these campaigns from an alternative perspective on the news.

The People's Liberation Army's (PLA) influence operations are encapsulated in the 'Three Warfares' concept, consisting of:

• • •

Media or public opinion warfare, Psychological warfare, and Legal warfare.

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Media warfare involves controlling and exploiting communication channels to disseminate propaganda, setting the stage for dominating channels in psychological and legal warfare.

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Psychological warfare utilizes propaganda, deception, threats, and coercion to impact the adversary's decision-making, conducting military operations through perception management and deception while countering opponent psychological operations.

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Legal warfare Leverages international and domestic laws to claim legal high ground, sway target audiences, gain international support, manage political repercussions, and assert Chinese interests. The PLA employs online influence activities to support its overarching Three Warfares concept and undermine an adversary's resolve in a contingency or conflict.

China has long sought to

• Penetration of regional

exert influence on foreign thoughts and opinions. Its influence activities have evolved beyond targeting diaspora communities to encompass a much broader spectrum of Western societies' sectors.

• Manipulation of influential

organizations (Interpol, the Council of Europe) to align their activities with Chinese interests. former European politicians advocating for Chinese interests.

This expansion includes universities, think tanks, media, as well as national, state, and local government institutions. China's objectives include:

• Mobilization of diasporas

• Suppressing alternative

• Exerting pressure on

views and co-opting key American players to support China's foreign policy goals and economic interests.

researchers and the academic research apparatus through the issuance of visas and financial programs.

• Promoting views

• Distribution, in exchange

favourable to Chinese culture, society, and government policies.

These Chinese inference and influence operations take various forms:

and Chinese communities abroad by agents of the United Front Work Department (UFWD) during diplomatic visits.

for remuneration, of a news supplement called 'China Watch' in major European daily papers, creating economic dependence and encouraging self-censorship in the treatment of news about China.

•

• Domination of the

majority of Chineselanguage European media.

• Implementation of retaliatory measures against governments deemed critical or "unfriendly."

oversees content production and dissemination, particularly concerning the PLA's reputation both domestically and internationally.

Liberation Army's (PLA) influence

Methodology of Cyber Influence Operations

operation capabilities extend across its political, academic, and militia groups.

China's influence operations have evolved into highly sophisticated endeavours.

T

Shifting from a focus on diaspora communities, they now encompass virtually all sectors of Western societies, including media, universities, think tanks, and various levels of government institutions.

The People's

he Political Work

Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC) stands as a pivotal organ within the PLA, tasked with designing and promoting Chinese influence operations abroad, including ideologies.

Subordinate to the Political Work Department, the Publicity Bureau or Propaganda Bureau

China's objective is to propagate views supportive of Chinese government policies, society, and culture while suppressing dissenting perspectives.

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Additionally, China aims to enlist critical Western players to support its foreign policy goals and economic interests.

T

he People's Republic of China's (PRC) Influence Operations are

orchestrated at the highest echelons and implemented by various actors, including the Propaganda Ministry,

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United Front Work Department (UFWD), State Council Information Office, Ministry of State Security (MSS), and the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has utilized Influence Operations for domestic purposes, notably through its 'United Front Work,' since the inception of the PRC.

The

CCP

aims

to shape the perspectives of domestic, foreign, and multilateral political establishments and public opinion to align with Beijing's narratives.

It particularly views open democracies as more susceptible to Influence Operations than other forms of governance.

This strategic approach has been consistently employed by the CCP, emphasizing the importance of influencing both domestic and international perceptions to support its goals.

Big Data and AI in China’s Cyber Influence Operations The forefront of Chinese influence operations now extends to big data and artificial intelligence (AI).

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) employs AI to manage bot networks on social media, enhancing the attribution of its clandestine accounts.

The Military Correspondent has advocated for the utilization of AI in foreign influence operations, urging the PLA to "fully exploit AI technology to accurately recommend military

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information to broad media platforms for different audiences, making international audiences perceive our PLA reporting as their chosen content.”

China employs data-

driven analytics for social control within its population. With over 1 billion Chinese users conducting more than 60 percent of transactions through the WeChat app, it serves as a staterecognized electronic social-security identification and ID card, embodying the vision of a surveillance state.

WeChat is utilized by China to clamp down on anything perceived as a threat to the state's harmony and stability.

The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) most recent Influence Operations initiative involves

propaganda driven by artificial intelligence (AI), intended for both domestic and international use. This system aims to identify early indicators of social unrest, support state journalists in creating compelling content, and disseminate approved narratives to target audiences. The anticipated outcome is that AI will enhance the Party's voice and amplify its influence over public opinion.

C

hina's news services

are actively expanding their reach and messaging across the media landscape, encompassing

websites, newspapers, online interactive platforms, mobile apps, personal social media, official social media channels, and thirdparty representations.

T

he extensive data

required by artificial intelligence (AI) to generate perceptions is mined from the media landscape, drawing from sources like WeChat, Weibo, or mobile apps developed by state media outlets.

Internationally, data will be harvested from news websites, Facebook, Twitter, and other platforms.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) intends to leverage sentiment analysis to identify high-profile or highly trafficked events, providing early warnings of items to censor.

This strategy aims to establish a comprehensive and intelligent information dissemination model.

Intersection of CyberInfluence Operations and Geopolitics

•

Analyzing Link between Cyber-Influence and China's Geopolitical Objectives

China leverages cyber influence as a form of digital soft power, aiming to shape narratives and perceptions that align with its geopolitical agenda.

Cyber operations provide China with a non-traditional tool to assert dominance in the global arena, allowing for the projection of influence beyond physical borders.

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• Influence on

International Affairs and Alliances Cyber-influence operations can disrupt diplomatic relations by targeting sensitive information and influencing decision-making processes. The use of cyber influence can strain alliances as trust erodes due to suspicions of statesponsored cyber activities.

T

he impact on

international affairs showcases how these incidents can escalate geopolitical tensions and shape diplomatic discourse.

Countermeasures Against China’s Cyber-Influence Operations

• Evaluating Existing

Countermeasures Against Chinese Cyber Activities

o Implementing advanced

threat detection systems that utilize machine learning algorithms can enhance the ability to identify and respond to sophisticated cyber threats posed by China.

o Collaborative efforts

between countries and international organizations for sharing threat intelligence can strengthen the collective defense against cyber threats from China and other statesponsored actors.

o Engaging in public-

private partnerships fosters collaboration between governments and private sector entities, enabling a more comprehensive approach to cybersecurity.

Recommendations for Governments and Organizations

o Governments and

organizations should prioritize investments in robust cybersecurity infrastructure, including advanced firewalls, secure networks, and regular security audits.

o Governments can enact and enforce legislation to regulate cybersecurity practices, ensuring that organizations adhere to minimum security standards and report cyber incidents promptly.

o Promoting cybersecurity education and training initiatives at both the organizational and individual levels enhance awareness and builds a more resilient society.

International Collaboration in Combating Cyber Threats

§ Assessing the Need for Global Cooperation in Addressing Cyber Threats

o Cyber threats transcend national borders, and malicious actors often exploit the interconnectedness of the digital world.

o A coordinated

international response is essential to effectively counteract these threats.

Acknowledging that cybersecurity is a shared responsibility fosters a collective understanding that no single nation or organization can combat cyber threats in isolation.

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•

Existing Collaborative Efforts and Their Effectiveness

o Bodies like INTERPOL,

the United Nations, and the European Union facilitate cooperation by providing platforms for member countries to share information and coordinate responses to cyber threats.

o Alliances like the Five

Eyes (USA, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) exemplify informationsharing initiatives among trusted nations, enhancing collective intelligence on cyber threats.

o Initiatives such as the

Budapest Convention on Cybercrime aim to establish international legal frameworks, encouraging cooperation in addressing cybercrime and cyber influence.

Conclusion In the dynamic landscape of cyber-influence operations, this exploration has illuminated the multifaceted nature of China's cyber activities, delving into historical context, tactics employed, and the global impact of its endeavours.

Key points to remember:

• Cyber-Influence

Evolution. China's cyber activities have evolved from early cyber espionage to sophisticated influence operations, shaping narratives, disrupting democracies, and posing significant challenges to global cybersecurity.

• Technological

Advancements. Integration of emerging technologies, such as AI, 5G, and quantum computing, propels cyber threats to new heights.

The future landscape of cybersecurity will depend on advanced technological solutions, including AIdriven security and quantum-safe cryptography.

• Global Collaboration: Interconnected nature of cyber threats necessitates global cooperation. Existing collaborative efforts, including international organizations, informationsharing alliances, and global conventions, play a crucial role in building a united front against cyber threats.

• Countermeasures and

Vigilance: Evaluating and enhancing countermeasures is imperative.

Governments and organizations must invest in robust cybersecurity infrastructure, promote cybersecurity education, and engage in collaborative initiatives to stay ahead of evolving cyber threats.

Finally, as we navigate the ever-changing digital landscape, vigilance is paramount.

Cybersecurity is not merely a technical challenge but a global imperative that demands continuous adaptation and collaboration. The call to action is clear: bolster cybersecurity measures, invest in technological innovations, and foster international cooperation.

By doing so, we can collectively build a more resilient and secure digital future.

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Col (Dr.) Inderjeet Singh is a renowned cybersecurity and blockchain expert with three decades of experience. His notable roles include Chief Cyber Officer and CoFounder of the India Blockchain Forum, and he's a recipient of the Eminent CIO Award 2023.

His global influence is marked by his presentations as a 2x TEDx Speaker and his contributions at the UN Office in Geneva. Col Singh’s leadership in cybersecurity has driven key strategic initiatives, bolstering organizational defenses and advocating for innovation.

Recognized for his expertise in cybersecurity, blockchain, and commercial technology assessment, Col Singh is a trusted authority in integrating technological depth with business acumen

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A

s one ponders the strategic

impact of Non-Kinetic Threat (NKT) technologies when placed alongside robust cutting

edge hypersonics, quantum, and AIenabled systems, drone-based sophisticated missile and artillery systems, and advanced weapons platforms where the entire array of air, space, land, and sea kinetic technologies convey combined breathtaking power in conflict scenarios, military and civilian leaders are tempted to say—so

what?

Most often NKT technologies employed in a hostile exchange of armaments between rival

nations are frequently viewed as non-lethal, limited effects weapons which fall short of truly strategic value and impact.

In the hybrid war, gray zone, JADC2 warfare environment, clandestine non-kinetic weapons are often ignored. The challenge is whether a determined and patient covert enemy can inflict strategic damage non-kinetically before we can recognize the attack, resist it, or recover from it. In effect, do we really know our weaknesses and security gaps?

Most non-kinetic threat — or the NKT spectrum — consist of silent, largely undetectable technologies capable of inflicting damaging, debilitating, and degrading physical and neural effects on its unwitting targets.

This covert threat is best understood as something to be invoked via rapid surprise attack or as a stealthy forerunner to a massive kinetic follow-on attack.

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As such, it can gradually weaken, or soften up, targeted leaders of defensive systems and key infrastructure.

Worse, it can be individualized or magnified to adversely impact multiple persons or groups. More specifically, there is a distinct spectrum of NKT threats rooted in a variety of benign non-lethal technologies which deserve consideration for the potentially strategic effects they can engender.

How Should we View Non-Kinetic Threats?

If we accept that NKT systems pose potential strategic threats, why are they so often dismissed? Maybe when various NKT threat technologies are compared with kinetic systems, it is fairly obvious — kinetic systems kill, destroy, maim, and obliterate. Whereas non-kinetic platforms prevail best in areas of presumptively sub-strategic value like lasers, cyber, directed energy, and related technologies.

We know certain non-kinetic systems can have unintended kinetic effects, such as overpowered lasers or misused electronic warfare systems.

However, the non-kinetic risk facing modern militaries is whether NKT enables at least three kinds of strategic effects.

These three are:

1) a lightning decapitation strike; 2) a covert undetected surprise attack disabling leadership; and 3) insidious covert ongoing attacks which degrade leadership analysis, defensive systems’ operational integrity, and strategic warning.

These reflect the famous Sun Tzu quote ”the acme of skill is to win a war without firing a shot”.

Evidence enough that NKT is a neglected domain when Pentagon strategists only concentrate on the Air, Land, Sea, Space, and Cyber domains. The sixth domain — more specifically the targeting of human neurobiological and biophysical vulnerability — contains strategic scenarios as formidable alternatives to avenues to ‘right of bang’ defeat.

NKT: A Defining Challenge Strategic shock and surprise is poison to defense planners. Pearl Harbor, the 1959 Sputnik launch, and the 9-11 attacks illustrate that our blind spots, arrogance, and hubris are grist for the enemy to exploit.

Here strategic warning took a vacation, and we witnessed the carnage and loss of geopolitical prestige as we slept or dreamed.

Enemies with a keen knowledge of our weaknesses and flawed smugness or misplaced confidence can out-maneuver our defense lapses.

Being vigilant against emerging threats is the watchword. But does that afford protection enough against full spectrum non-kinetic threats? Are NKT issues of a comprehensive and diverse nature built into our future threat radar?

A decapitation scenario involving non-kinetics is not hard to imagine, especially if one considers our national reliance on crucial energy systems, satellites, IT communications, and other networked security systems.

C

laiming with misplaced

confidence that every conceivable attack scenario against national security infrastructure is hardened seems compelling.

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But a well-orchestrated NKT lightning decapitation scenario against leadership and infrastructure is the essence of Sun Tzu’s winning without firing a shot.

social media platforms and civilian communication networks.

Absent strategic warning, NKT is the death blow.

Secondarily, a covert undetected surprise attack disabling leadership scenario includes a neurological attack targeting leadership. It undermines strategic warning, situational awareness, analysis of options, evaluation of defensive alternatives, development of courses of action, and strategic response. Silent focused attacks targeting leader neurological vulnerability devastate OODA loop thought and related cognitive functions, disconnecting command from its daily management of defense systems and silently nullifying all electronic, IT, communication, satellite, cyber and interlinked systems. Scenario #2 entails the phased erosion of key infrastructures, including civilian sources of information, information credibility, data reliability and access nullifying

more gradual, subtle, and insidious in its long-term effects which target key elements of the population—including its civilian and military leaders. Scenario #3 takes full advantage of leaders’ inability to identify they have been attacked or compromised.

Scenario #3 features an unfolding series of attacks that is so subtle and gradual that its victims have trouble reporting that they are targets of an attack at all.

Finally, the third scenario is

F

urther, the nebulous

neurological symptoms they complain about cannot be uniformly evaluated by experienced neuroscientists because this set of symptoms has never been seen before.

This is distinguishable from scenario #2 in operational terms because it is an explicit prelude to a massed kinetic attack wave staged gradually in deliberate phases, thereby allowing it to be overlooked in strategic significance.

This is not science

fiction, nor should NKT be relegated to some amorphous future technology threat decades away in purely speculative terms. NKT are an unrecognized and unvalidated core of tomorrow’s strategic calculus.

Enemies with NKT systems can target our neurobiological and physiological vulnerability and their principal bullseye is our civilian and military leadership.

This tactic enables the waging of an invisible war on the ground, disabling and degrading key infrastructure and military and societal leadership for net strategic effect.

The three basic scenarios feature the same dynamic threat variables listed here:

[1] we need NKT early warning capabilities; [2] we need reliable NKT threat defense and alert sensor detection systems; [3] we need robust deterrent technology against all possible NKT threats; [4] we need a NKT technical verification and attribution capability; and [5] we need significant R&D development/deployment of proven NKT counter-measures.

Co-mingled as NKT often is within other convergent AI, quantum, nanotech, robotics, genomics, and autonomous systems and technologies, it is a deadly and vague distraction from imagining how targeted neurobiological attacks can happen at all.

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Upgraded future soldiers reliant on exoskeletons, modified diet, cyborg add-ons, special biophysical interventions, AI augmentation, and other technologies depict a robust confident force. However, a determined and skillful enemy can unleash an entire spectrum of technologies designed expressly to penetrate, weaken, offset, or overcome those enhancements..

NKT technologies can nullify many of those presumptive upgrades in warfighter protection and agility or covertly dilute warfighter resilience reducing those extra enhancements and rendering our troops defenseless. What does warfighter resilience mean then?

The key challenge of acquiring genuine resilience and force protection is to offset unexpected, unknown, or unimaginable vulnerabilities rooted in NKT. These are absent from warfighter planning…

This is sheer Sixth Dimension Warfare existing well apart from the Land, Sea, Air, Cyber, and Space Domains — the human mind and body lack an operator’s manual and strategic doctrine.

Full spectrum NKT technologies exploiting cyberspace, nanospace, genomic space, outer space, and neurospace will require tested technology, unique capabilities, and validated operational systems. Do we grasp that sixth domain warfare is fully understood in parallel alongside classical kinetic combat? Do we have NKT embedded in our defense?

NKT after 2022— Definitional Boundaries and Deterrence Endgame By accounting for the sixth dimension—the human one—we understand that JADC2, OODA loop thinking, and situational

awareness are in jeopardy along with the imperative to derive a common operational picture.

Inside JADC2, where the aim is visualization of complex data, easier communication, control, and coordination, along with full spectrum data sharing across a wide range of well known but incompatible systems, the latent and covert NKT challenge is insidious.

JADC2 still requires humans in the decision and analysis network to make operational judgements useful to battle commanders. However, they are largely defenseless against many forms of NKT which impressively elude available deterrent and defensive systems not calibrated to account for NKT technologies.

Perhaps it reflects a strategic shortfall of major significance? NKT technologies are not well understood or defined, which complicates the issue.

The USAF describes the nonkinetic environment as: “…nonkinetic actions have a physical component, the effects they impose are mainly indirect — functional, systemic, psychological, or behavioral”.

(AFDD 2, 2017)1

Does that cover this issue adequately?

Further complicating the issue of broad NKT as described here is the lack of a uniform or widely accepted definition. It can be defined broadly as “use of informational, psychological, diplomatic, economic, social, and technological tools of statecraft to achieve national interests and objectives by either acquiescing or impairing the national will of the adversary.” Non-kinetic engagements can create unique uncertainties prior to and/or outside of traditional warfare, precisely because they have qualitatively and quantitatively “fuzzy boundaries” as blatant acts of war.

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Non-kinetic engagements often utilize non-military means to expand the effect-space beyond the conventional battlefield.2 Consider for a moment some disruptive and strategic effects of NKT in the future battlefield. Just visualize the loss of situational awareness, OODA loop analysis, blurring of the commander’s estimate of the battlefront, foggy interpretation of theater intelligence, and other sacred pillars on which conventional military decisionmaking rests.

NeuroStrike jeopardizes them all. Worse, it is fair to ask whether aspects of JADC2 is likewise in trouble for the same reasons. NKT create a silent covert ambiguous threat dwelling ‘left of bang’ which nonetheless produce sub-strategic effects.

This brings into focus the set of technological challenges in deterring NKT technologies after

2023 which are, and will continue to be, used against U.S. and allied military leadership with impunity unless stopped.

NKT should be viewed seriously as having a primary focus on degrading the operational performance and decisionmaking of civilian leaders in key national security, homeland security, and infrastructural management positions.

Deterrence against full spectrum NKT has now become the paramount strategic objective after 2022. But what are its fundamental requirements, characteristics, and deployable capabilities?

These questions largely still remain unanswered.

What about the vaunted Multi Domain Task Force (MDTF), designed to employ an array of long-range precision effects against enemy anti-access/area

denial networks and employ its own non-kinetic capabilities — such as cyber, electronic warfare, intelligence, and longrange fires — to augment the Joint Force’s existing lethal capabilities? The MDTF claims it can use non-kinetic effects to “electromagnetically isolate” those threats, giving Joint Force commanders the option to wage a kinetic attack against the vulnerable threat.3 The central dilemma here is whether the MDTF is enough by itself to nullify full spectrum NKT or only those threats known to U.S. forces?

Nominal Neuroweapons and NKT Technologies Awareness of insidious and nascent NKT must go back at least a decade. If we accept the fact that NeuroStrike capabilities target the vulnerabilities of our Central Nervous System (CNS), our neuromechanics, and vestibular

systems, the threat is seen more clearly. This covert, silent, and undetected invasive degradation of cognitive functions, perception, brain functions, reasoning, judgement, and decision-making is essentially what I have termed NeuroStrike — it is effective and debilitating, leaving its victims unable to perform normal brain functions for many years.4 The mere existence of engineered neuroweapons deserves special mention as part of the overall NKT spectrum. An influential and well researched book on the subject

by Krishnan carefully describes the arena of neurowarfare as including “systematic efforts by international actors to utilize neuro S&T for the purpose of gaining military or political advantage in a conflict by influencing enemy minds”.5 He cites my research into the issue where I observe that neuroweapons defy easily

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agreed upon definition, yet clearly they symbolize a serious future threat.6

M

y emphasis on

neuroweapons and the essential engineered threats of persistent

NeuroStrike attacks were meant to sound an alarm years ago. NeuroStrike will exert profound implications on wargames, planning conflicts, maneuver operations, and assessing enemy military capabilities. U.S. senior leader training should focus on NKT issues and ensure that NATO is similarly attuned to these threats. If future NeuroStrike technology expansion in scope and effect exceeds individual attacks to impair dozens or hundreds of victims neurologically, the enemy has a concrete strategic edge. A robust confirmatory analysis of this technology to devise deterrents and countermeasures must be underway to

offset the threat of their continued covert use and attacks. Finding a deterrent and countermeasure solution is a prime security goal.

Final Observations NKT technologies are truly game changing, instrumentally redefining our understanding of strategic leverage and dominance.

The use of NKT technologies as a covert prelude to kinetic hostilities, or as a silent companion to prolonged longterm erosion of strategic infrastructure and defense systems’ operational integrity, is both valid and disturbing.

It represents a paradigm shift away from successively more complex, costly, and sophisticated kinetic systems. If U.S. leadership ignores its strategic effect on future warfare, we find a fatal error.

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We know far less than we should about NKT technologies, which enemy and hostile nations possess them, what covert engineering efforts are underway to enhance and magnify their effects, and what can be devised to nullify, offset, and deter their future use against U.S. personnel and our allies. Continued forms and variations of neurowarfare will challenge us unless an effective showstopper is found. New definitions of strategic endgame will emerge where the combined impact of mixed kinetic and NKT systems are employed skillfully in conflict.

Overall, we must visualize new endgame conditions which confer an NKT strategic advantage to enemies of the United States. Joint domain doctrine which does not explicitly incorporate NKT undermines warfare readiness.

Disclaimer: All views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). This article, has been republished with permission from the author.

The battlefield has changed and includes variables that can exert strategic effects in ways not readily seen or discerned in a ‘left of bang’ world.

NKT technologies merit serious attention right now.

1 (PDF) Non-kinetic Warfare – The new game changer

in the battle space 316 Non-kinetic Warfare -The new game changer in the battle space. Available from: [accessed Jan 02, 2023].Non-Kinetic Warfare: Defense And Strategy In Political War, Canadian NATO Association newsletter Posted on August 9, 2017 2 Ibid, Non-Kinetic Warfare 3 MDTFAUSA NEWS: Army Harnessing Non-Kinetic Effects for Multi-Domain Ops in Indo-Pacific 10/12/2022 Ara Mikaia Easly Defense Magazine 4 Neurocognitive Warfare-Inflicting Strategic Impact via Non-Kinetic threats, Small Wars Journal, R.McCreight//Sept 16, 2022, and Brain Brinksmanship Devising Neuroweapons Looking at Battlespace, Doctrine, and Strategy//in Neuroscience and National Security, CRC Press, 2014 5 Military Neuroscience and the Coming Age of Neurowarfare, Armin Krishnan, Routlege 2017 6 Ibid, McCreight

Robert McCreight is a retired national security expert, former U.S. Army Special Ops officer who teaches graduate school, conducts research on future defense issues and consults periodically on foreign policy, intelligence, and global security matters. His publications on these subjects can be found in various professional journals.

LINDA RESTREPO Artificial Intelligence, Cyber Security, Exponential Technologies

Echoes of the Past: From the Ming Dynasty to Modern China. In an era where transient news cycles often dictate public discourse, our article endeavors to rise above the transient nature of daily news, offering a comprehensive and enduring resource.

It navigates the complex labyrinth of U.S.-China relations, exploring facets that encompass economic strategies, geopolitical tensions, and technological rivalries.

This exploration sheds light on how these critical elements converge and influence global affairs, adopting a narrative that prioritizes timeless analysis over momentary developments.

Designed for an audience seeking depth and understanding, this piece is an invitation to engage with the subtleties and intricacies of international relations, providing a perspective that resonates beyond the immediacy of today's headlines.

To understand China's current strength, one must delve into its rich historical tapestry, beginning with the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), a beacon of stability and prosperity in Chinese history.

This era, marked by the overthrow of the Mongol-led Yuan Dynasty by Zhu Yuanzhang, heralded a period of unparalleled stability and prosperity. The Ming Dynasty is celebrated for establishing a powerful central government and a robust bureaucratic system, underscored by civil service examinations that recruited capable officials. This period was a cultural renaissance, witnessing extraordinary advancements in literature, philosophy, and the arts, which mirrored the society's sophistication and affluence.

E

conomically, the Ming

Dynasty stood as one of the world's most prosperous, with its agricultural might and expansion in both domestic and international trade.

The production of silk, porcelain, and tea during this era not only enriched the domestic economy but also became highly coveted in global trade networks.

T

he Ming Dynasty's

commitment to maritime exploration, particularly under Admiral Zheng He, set the stage for China's historical global outreach.

Between 1405 and 1433, Zheng He's expeditions reached as far as Africa, showcasing China's naval prowess and seeding its influence in the Indian Ocean.

Moreover, this era is credited with the majority of the construction of the Great Wall of China, a monumental effort to safeguard the nation from northern invasions.

However, the dynasty's decline, precipitated by internal corruption, weakening

governance, peasant revolts, and external pressures including Manchu invasions, underscores the complexities that have historically beset China's path to power.

This historical backdrop not only illuminates China's past but also reflects the strategies and challenges that shape its current global stance.

Bridging Eras: The Belt and Road Initiative's Historical Roots Moving forward from China's historical foundations, we now turn our attention to its modern economic initiatives, most notably the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

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The BRI, a global development strategy involving infrastructure development and investments in nearly 70 countries and international organizations, echoes the expansive trade practices of the Ming Dynasty.

Much like the Ming era's maritime expeditions, the BRI seeks to establish a network of trade routes and bolster China's economic influence globally.

This initiative, while rooted in historical precedents, also reflects contemporary economic ambitions and strategies.

It is a clear indication of China's desire to assert its role as a global economic leader, leveraging infrastructure and investment to create new trade corridors.

However, unlike the exploratory nature of the Ming expeditions, the BRI is a more structured and strategic plan, aimed at creating a new global economic paradigm centered around China. This modern economic approach, while drawing inspiration from the past, is adapted to the complexities

of today's globalized world.

Comparing this with the modern "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) of China, there are some parallels in terms of expanding trade and influence. The BRI, much like the maritime expeditions of the Ming Dynasty, aims to establish and strengthen trade routes (both land and sea) connecting China with Africa, Asia, and Europe.

This initiative is part of China's strategy to boost economic growth, political influence, and connectivity with other parts of the world.

However, unlike the Ming Dynasty's approach, which was more exploratory and involved direct voyages, the BRI is an extensive infrastructure and investment project with a global scope.

The Ming Dynasty's emphasis on trade and maritime exploration can be seen as a historical precursor to China's current global economic strategies, illustrating the country's long-standing interest in international trade and cultural exchange.

China's Global Financial Footprint: Lending Practices and Strategies Continuing our exploration of China's modern economic strategies, we delve into its significant role in international lending.

According to data compiled from various reputable sources, including financial institutions, government reports, and international organizations, Chinese institutions have provided approximately $1.34 trillion in loans to developing countries between 2000 and 2021.

Initially, this lending was primarily for infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative, but it gradually pivoted towards rescue financing.

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Despite its ambitious nature, this strategy has attracted criticism, particularly for burdening nations like Sri Lanka and Zambia with heavy debts.

This change coincides with a greater collaboraChina's approach tion with to lending is Western increasingly commercial characterized by banks and loans denomiinternational nated in financial renminbi, coupled with institutions. mechanisms like foreign currency cash escrow accounts. These practices grant China preferential status in debt repayment scenarios, raising questions about the financial sovereignty and repayment priorities of the debtor nations.

Moreover, the pattern of China's lending has shifted, with a reduced focus on African countries and an increased emphasis on European nations.

Notably, in 2021, half of China's non-emergency lending was in the form of syndicated loans, a significant portion of which was in partnership with Western banks.

These evolving lending practices offer a glimpse into China's adaptive economic strategies and their broader geopolitical implications, providing context to understand China's financial relationships with various nations, including smaller countries like Chile.

Comparative Analysis: China's lending,

P

particularly under the Belt and olitically, they can shift the Road Initiative, contrasts with traditional Western-led lending balance of influence, with recipient practices, such as those of the IMF countries often finding themselves or World Bank. aligned more closely with China's geopolitical interests. This While Western institutions often realignment can have profound attach stringent economic policy implications for global political conditions to their loans, Chinese dynamics, particularly in regions loans are generally perceived as where Western influence has having fewer conditions, which can traditionally been dominant. be appealing to many developing countries.

However, this also leads to concerns about debt sustainability and transparency compared to more traditional international lending practices.

Impact Assessment: The

Future Outlook:

Looking ahead, China's lending practices are likely to continue evolving. As concerns about debt sustainability grow, there might be a shift towards more sustainable and transparent lending practices.

Furthermore, China may increasingly collaborate with global financial institutions to mitigate impact of China's lending on risks and enhance the legitimacy of recipient countries is multifaceted. its lending. This evolution will play a critical role in shaping global Economically, while these loans finance, potentially leading to a provide crucial infrastructure more multipolar financial world development, they also risk order. increasing debt burdens 191 significantly.

The Ripple Effects of China's Lending This notable shift in China's lending practices has been marked by an increased collaboration with Western commercial banks and international financial institutions.

In a significant move, half of China's non-emergency lending in 2021 was in the form of syndicated loans, with a considerable portion of these loans being made in partnership with Western banks.

This approach represents a strategic change from China’s traditional method of direct lending through its own financial institutions. Syndicated loans, involving multiple lenders providing funds to a single borrower, highlight China's integration into the global financial system. In

2021, around 50% of China's loans to other countries were collaborative efforts with Western Banks,

as reported by the World Bank.

This data underscores China's diversified approach to international lending.

It underscores that 50% of the loans China extended to other countries were part of collaborative efforts, not solely reliant on Chinese lenders.

This signifies a diversification of China's international financial engagements, involving global financial players and spreading associated risks more broadly.

Syndicated Loans: A New Chapter in China's Financial Saga China's engagement with multilateral lenders and Western commercial banks, particularly in the form of syndicated loans, marks a significant evolution in its international lending practices.

In 2021, a substantial 80% of its non-emergency syndicated loans involved collaboration with Western banks and institutions.

Such partnerships, while legal under U.S. regulations, require American banks to adhere to strict regulatory frameworks, ensuring compliance with banking regulations and international laws.

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hese collaborations offer

multiple advantages, such as risk distribution across lenders, leveraging Western banks' expertise and resources, and integrating China more deeply into the global financial system.

Unveiling China's 'Ghost Cities': The Enigma of Empty Urban Landscapes The phenomenon of empty buildings, often referred to as "ghost cities," in China is another significant aspect of its economic landscape. These are sprawling urban areas with vast housing complexes, malls, and business districts that remain largely uninhabited. This situation arose from the country's rapid urbanization and development strategy, where local governments and developers focused on real estate as a key driver of economic growth.

However, they also necessitate The construction of careful navigation of international these cities was often regulations and geopolitical dynamics, underscoring a speculative, banking on cooperative yet complex approach future demand that to International finance. This strategy not only reduces China's hasn't materialized at financial risks but also underscores its commitment to global financial the expected scale. collaboration, reflecting a nuanced This has led to concerns about wasted resources, financial interplay between economic stability, and the sustainability of strategies and international relations.

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China's urban development model.

Addressing the underlying causes and implications of these

"ghost cities" is essential for understanding China's complex economic dynamics.

These multifaceted challenges indicate a period of significant transition and re-evaluation for China, both economically and socially. The attitudes of the younger generation, especially as

"lying flat"

seen in the movement, signal a shift in values and aspirations, reflecting deeper societal and economic undercurrents.

Navigating the New Reality: China's Youth at the Crossroads of Economic and Social Shifts China is currently facing several economic and social challenges, many of which are affecting its younger generations.

Here are some key issues:

Economic Slowdown: After decades of rapid growth,

China's economy is experiencing a slowdown.

This is due to a combination of factors, including trade tensions with other countries, shifts in global supply chains, and internal policy decisions aimed at regulating sectors like technology and real estate.

Real Estate Market Issues: The real estate market, which plays a crucial role in China's economy, is facing difficulties. There have been instances of over-leveraging by major real estate companies, such as Evergrande, leading to debt crises and a cooling property market. This sector's instability has wider implications for the national economy.

Youth Unemployment: The unemployment rate among young people in China, especially college graduates, is notably high.

The job market is increasingly competitive, and there are mismatches between the skills of graduates and the needs of employers. This has led to frustration and anxiety among young adults.

Changing Social Attitudes (Lying Flat Movement): The "lying flat" movement, known as "tang ping" in Chinese, is a social phenomenon where young people choose to opt-out of the highly competitive work environment. They reject the traditional narrative of success, which involves working long hours and constantly striving for advancement, in favor of a minimalist and low-pressure lifestyle.

This movement reflects a broader disillusionment with the relentless work culture and the diminishing returns of economic growth.

Demographic Challenges: China is facing a demographic crisis with an aging population

and a declining birth rate. The one-child policy, which was in effect from 1979 to 2015, has led to a skewed demographic structure. This poses challenges for labor supply, healthcare, and pension systems.

Technological and Trade Tensions: Ongoing tensions, particularly with the United States, over technology and trade are creating uncertainty.

Issues like the security of technology supply chains, intellectual property rights, and market access are significant points of contention.

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Environmental Concerns: Despite making strides in green energy, China still faces serious environmental challenges, including air pollution, water scarcity, and reliance on coal.

Balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability remains a critical issue.

These challenges indicate a period of transition and re-evaluation for China, both economically and socially.

The younger generation's attitudes, exemplified by the "lying flat" movement, signal a shift in values and aspirations, reflecting deeper societal and economic undercurrents.

AI Ambiguity: Unraveling the Complex Web of U.S. Grants to a Chinese Scientist Amidst Tech Tensions

The U.S. government provided at

least $30 million in grants to SongChun Zhu, a Chinese scientist working on artificial intelligence development.

These funds were awarded while Zhu was affiliated with the University of California, Los Angeles, where he led the Center for Vision, Cognition, Learning, and Autonomy.

The grants included significant amounts for developing high-level robot autonomy and cognitive robot platforms.

Notably, these grants were continued even as Zhu established AI Asia, and Europe institutes in China and strengthened ties with the Chinese Communist Party.

The National Science Foundation (NSF), an independent federal agency, was one of the grant providers to Zhu. However, they ceased funding in 2022 after recognizing potential conflicts of interest and national security risks associated with Zhu's foreign collaborations and affiliations.

The Department of Defense (DoD), which also contributed to the funding, defended its decision, citing the advantages of international collaboration. Among the DoD branches funding Zhu were the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Navy, and the Army1.

After leaving UCLA, Zhu founded the Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence and became the chief scientist at the Wuhan Institute for Artificial Intelligence.

His work has openly acknowledged the uses of AI in areas such as cyberwarfare and disinformation. ¹ Sources: Newsweek investigation; Newsmax report; Pocketmags article.

This scenario does present a paradox, given the U.S. concerns about China's technological advancements and accusations of intellectual property theft. The funding of a Chinese scientist's AI research, which could potentially contribute to China’s technological dominance, seems contradictory to the U.S. stance on

protecting its technological edge. This situation reflects the complex nature of international research collaborations and the challenges in balancing the benefits of such collaborations with national security concerns.

Economic Strains and Security Stakes: Deciphering the U.S.-China Power Play in the AsiaPacific Arena In the broader scheme of U.S.-China relations, the interplay between China's economic challenges and security tensions in the Asia-Pacific region holds significant implications.

China's economy, once a symbol of relentless growth, is now grappling with a debt-laden real estate sector and escalating local government debts, raising concerns about its long-term economic health.

Concurrently, the Asia-Pacific region, especially the South China Sea, is a focal point of rising security tensions and military activities.

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hese developments,

relations, and the complex economic and social challenges it faces at home.

particularly around Taiwan, not only pose risks to regional stability but also intensify the U.S.-China From the Belt and Road Initiative's rivalry. This situation could lead to intricate web of investments to the increased military spending, paradoxical funding of AI affecting economic progress. development, China's role on the global stage is a study in contrasts.

These economic and security dynamics present a complex As we navigate this intricate backdrop, influencing the strategic landscape, it's crucial to decisions and diplomatic understand the interplay of engagements between the U.S. economics, politics, and society, and China. for China's actions ripple far beyond its borders, of global markets, international relations, and environmental policies.

Understanding these intertwined The dragon's moves issues is crucial for remain both enigmatic and influential, and Charting China's Course: unraveling their Navigating Challenges, Shaping complexities is a the World In the grand tapestry of China's influence on the world, continuing journey. we've explored the multifaceted comprehending the current state and future direction of one of the world's most pivotal bilateral relationships shaping the course.

impact of its lending practices, the evolving dynamics in U.S.-China

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The Expected Role Of Arab Space Agencies In Supporting The Climate Change Agenda: Challenges, Aspirations And Possibilities

By Dr Mohamed

Ebrahim Al-Aseeri National Space Science Agency (NSSA), Kingdom of Bahrain

This article was inspired by my participation in different activities of COP28 which was held in Dubai during December 2023, and most of the suggested strategies contained therein have already been successfully implemented by the National Space Science Agency (NSSA) in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

Current Role of Arab Space Agencies in Monitoring Climate Change Arab space agencies have increasingly recognized the significance of monitoring and analyzing climate change, leveraging satellite technology and collaborations to contribute to global efforts.

While specific roles can vary among individual agencies, the general aspects of their involvement could be:

1. Satellite Missions: Most of the Arab space agencies have launched or participated in satellite missions designed to monitor various environmental parameters related to climate change.

2. Data Collection and Analysis: These agencies collect vast amounts of data using their satellites and ground-based sensors. They analyze this data to assess environmental changes, identify patterns, and monitor the impacts of climate change on the region's ecosystems, water resources, and agriculture.

3. Partnerships and Collaborations: Collaborations with the well-established space agencies, i.e., NASA, ESA, JAXA, ISRO, and scientific institutions enable Arab space agencies to access additional expertise, share data, and participate in global initiatives focused on climate change research. Such partnerships facilitate the exchange of knowledge and resources, enhancing the region's contribution to global climate monitoring efforts.

4. Decision Makers Support: Arab space agencies often provide valuable data and analysis to policymakers, aiding in the formulation of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies at the national and regional levels. By offering insights into environmental trends and potential impacts, these agencies support informed decision-making processes.

5. Public Awareness and Education: Many of these agencies play a role in raising public awareness about climate change and the importance of environmental stewardship. They often engage in outreach programs, educational initiatives, and public events to promote understanding and action regarding climate issues.

However, the specific activities and contributions of each Arab space agency may differ based on their resources, technological capabilities, and strategic priorities.

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Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Bahrain with ambitious space programs, have been particularly active in this domain, investing in satellite technology and partnerships to address climate change challenges.

This can hinder the development and deployment of advanced satellite systems specifically tailored for climate monitoring.

2. Technological Capacity: Developing and maintaining sophisticated satellite technology for precise climate monitoring requires substantial technological expertise. Some Arab space agencies may face challenges in accessing or developing cuttingedge technology necessary for accurate data collection and analysis.

Challenges Facing Arab Space Agencies in Working to Improve the Understanding of Climate Change and its Projections 3. Data Accessibility and Arab space agencies face several different challenges in their efforts to enhance our understanding of climate change. These challenges include, but are not limited to, the following:

1. Limited Resources: Many Arab countries have emerging space programs with constrained budgets and limited resources compared to established space agencies.

Integration: While satellite data is crucial for climate analysis, accessing and integrating different datasets from various sources into a coherent framework can be challenging. Arab space agencies might encounter difficulties in accessing global datasets and in harmonizing them with their own collected information.

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4. Human Capital Development: Developing a skilled workforce in fields such as remote sensing, climate modeling, sensors development, and data analysis is crucial. Arab space agencies might face challenges in attracting and retaining talent or providing adequate training opportunities in specialized areas related to climate change research.

5. Regional Cooperation and Collaboration: Climate change is a global issue, and cooperation among nations is essential. Some Arab countries might face geopolitical or diplomatic challenges that hinder seamless collaboration with other nations or regions in sharing data, resources, or scientific knowledge related to climate research.

6. Adaptation to Local Contexts: Climate change impacts can vary significantly from region to region. Arab space agencies might face challenges in

tailoring their research and projections to suit the specific climatic conditions, ecosystems, and socio-economic contexts of the Arab world.

7. Public Awareness and Policy Alignment: Engaging policymakers and the public in addressing climate change requires effective communication and advocacy efforts. Arab space agencies might encounter challenges in fostering public awareness and in aligning national policies with climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies based on scientific findings.

Addressing these challenges requires concerted efforts involving investment in technology, capacity building, international collaborations, and a strong commitment from governments to support climate-related research initiatives within their respective space agencies.

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Overcoming these obstacles will enable Arab space agencies to better contribute to global efforts in understanding and addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

Examples on Required Data and Information to be Collected and Analyzed to Achieve Climate Change Goals Arab space agencies can contribute a wide range of valuable data and information to help achieve climate change goals. Some samples on key contributions include:

1. Satellite Data: Provide satellite imagery and data on various environmental parameters, such as temperature variations, sea level rise, land use changes, vegetation health, and water resources.

These datasets are crucial for monitoring climate change impacts and trends in the region.

2. Atmospheric Composition Monitoring: Monitoring air quality, greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, and other atmospheric parameters helps in understanding local and regional contributions to global climate change.

3. Precipitation and Water Resources: Tracking changes in precipitation patterns, snow cover, and water availability is essential for understanding water resource management and potential impacts on agriculture and ecosystems.

Such data can aid in monitoring droughts, floods, and changes in water availability.

4. Land Use and Land Cover Change: Monitoring changes in land use and land cover, such as urban expansion, deforestation, and agricultural activities, provides insights into how human activities affect the environment and contribute to climate change.

5. Climate Modeling and Predictions: Arab space agencies can contribute to climate modeling efforts by providing observational data for model validation and improving regional climate projections. These models could be of high importance for research centers as they are essential in understanding future climate scenarios and their potential impacts on the region.

Possible Ways for the Arab Space Agencies to Strengthen their Regional and International Cooperation Concerning Climate Change To strengthen regional and international cooperation in monitoring and studying climate action, Arab space agencies could benefit from one or more of the following approaches:

1. Collaborative Research Initiatives: Arab space agencies can collaborate with regional and international counterparts on joint research projects focused on climate change. This collaboration can involve data sharing, joint missions, and the development of common standards for data collection and analysis.

2. Capacity Building and Knowledge Exchange: Organizing workshops, training programs, and knowledge-sharing platforms can facilitate capacity building within Arab space agencies. Collaborations with international institutions can offer opportunities for skills enhancement and technology transfer.

3. Policy Dialogue and Frameworks: Engaging in policy dialogues and establishing frameworks for cooperation at the governmental level can foster stronger ties between Arab countries and other nations

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invested in climate change research. Agreements on data sharing, joint missions, and research partnerships can be formalized through such dialogues.

change while fostering stronger regional and international collaborations for a more comprehensive and coordinated response to this critical issue.

4. Resource Sharing:

Technological Innovations Required to Achieve the Goals of Combating Climate Change

Collaborative efforts can include sharing resources such as satellite data, research facilities, and expertise. This can maximize the efficiency of climate monitoring and analysis efforts while minimizing duplication of resources.

5. Joint Funding and Investment: Pooling financial resources for joint projects and initiatives related to climate change research can be beneficial. This shared investment can lead to the development of more robust and comprehensive strategies for addressing climate change challenges.

By leveraging these approaches, Arab space agencies can contribute significantly to global efforts in understanding climate

Arab space agencies can contribute several technological innovations to combat climate change. Some of these innovations include:

1. Advanced Remote Sensing Technology: Developing and deploying sophisticated remote sensing technology on satellites can enhance data collection capabilities. High-resolution sensors, hyperspectral imaging, and advanced radar systems can provide more detailed and accurate information about environmental changes.

2. Climate Modeling and Prediction Tools: Investing in the development of improved climate models tailored to regional conditions can aid in predicting future climate scenarios.

Enhancing these models with local data can provide more accurate projections, helping policymakers plan for potential impacts.

3. Earth Observation Platforms: Investing in constellations of satellites dedicated to Earth observation can improve monitoring capabilities.

These platforms can track changes in land use, monitor vegetation health, and assess natural disasters, providing crucial information for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

4. Climate Adaptation Technologies: Innovations in technologies related to water management, renewable energy, agriculture, and urban planning can contribute to climate change

adaptation efforts. Arab space agencies can develop and promote technologies that enable communities to adapt to changing climate conditions sustainably.

5. Data Processing and Analysis Tools: Developing advanced data processing algorithms and analytical tools can help in extracting meaningful insights from large volumes of satellite data. Machine learning and AI-based approaches can aid in identifying trends, patterns, and anomalies related to climate change.

Supporting the development and effective use of these innovations involves several key steps:

1. Investment in Research and Development: Governments and private sectors can allocate funding and resources to support research and and development initiatives focused on climate change-related technologies. Encouraging innovation through grants, partnerships, and incentives can foster advancements in this field.

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2. Collaboration with Research Institutions and Industries: Partnering with research institutions, universities, and private industries can foster innovation. Collaborative efforts can combine expertise from various fields to develop and refine technological solutions for climate change challenges.

3. Policy and Regulatory Support: Establishing supportive policies and regulations can incentivize the development and adoption of climate-related technologies. Providing incentives for companies investing in sustainable technologies or offering tax breaks for research and development activities can encourage innovation.

4. Capacity Building and Training: Investing in education and training programs to develop a skilled workforce in areas such as remote sensing, data analysis, and climate modeling is crucial.

These programs can ensure that there is a pool of talent equipped to work on climate-related technological advancements.

5. International Collaboration and Knowledge Sharing: Engaging in international collaborations and partnerships facilitates knowledge exchange and access to cuttingedge technologies. Collaborating with established space agencies and research organizations allows for shared expertise and resources.

By prioritizing these strategies, Arab space agencies can drive the development and effective utilization of innovative technologies that play a pivotal role in combating climate change and fostering sustainable development within the region and globally.

Opportunities for Arab Space Agencies to Promote Awareness and Education about Climate Change in Arab Societies

Arab space agencies have various opportunities to promote awareness and education about climate change in Arab societies.

Here are some ways they can do so:

1. Public Outreach Programs: Organizing public outreach programs, workshops, seminars, and exhibitions focused on climate change can raise awareness among the general population. These initiatives can be held in collaboration with educational institutions, NGOs, and government bodies to reach a broader audience.

2. Educational Initiatives: Developing educational materials, curricula, and resources about climate change tailored for different educational levels can be highly effective. Arab space agencies can work with schools, universities, and educational authorities to incorporate climate change topics into formal education systems.

3. Media Engagement: Utilizing various media platforms, including TV, radio, social media, and online campaigns, can help disseminate information about climate change. Partnering with media organizations and influencers can amplify the message and reach diverse demographics.

4. Citizen Science Programs: Engaging citizens in data collection and monitoring activities related to climate change can foster a sense of involvement and responsibility.

Arab space agencies can create citizen science programs where individuals contribute to data collection efforts using simple tools or mobile applications.

To make these possible, Arab space agencies should strengthen their cooperation with educational, research, and government institutions through the following tactics:

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1. 1. Collaborative Initiatives: Establishing partnerships with educational institutions, research centers, and government bodies can facilitate the development and implementation of awareness programs. Collaborative efforts can pool resources, expertise, and networks to reach a larger audience effectively.

1. 2. Capacity Building: Providing training workshops, seminars, and professional development opportunities for educators, researchers, and government officials to enhance their understanding of climate change. This empowers them to effectively convey information and promote awareness within their respective spheres of influence.

1. 3. Joint Awareness Campaigns: Working together on joint awareness campaigns can combine the strengths and resources of various institutions.

These campaigns can include workshops, conferences, public events, and media campaigns designed to educate and engage the public on climate change issues.

4. Policy Integration: Encouraging government institutions to integrate climate change education into policies and initiatives can create a more structured approach to awareness.

Embedding climate change education in national curricula or public awareness campaigns can ensure its long-term impact.

5. Data Sharing and Research Collaboration: Collaborating on climate change research projects and sharing data can enrich educational materials and public awareness campaigns with accurate and up-to-date information. This collaboration fosters a more informed approach to addressing climate change issues.

DR. MOHAMED E. AL-ASEERI CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER National Space Science Agency (NSSA) Dr Al-Aseeri brings a wealth of extensive academic and professional experience to NSSA. He holds a PhD in Reactors Design from the University of Florida, USA. He also holds a Master’s degree in Reactors Design from the University of Florida, a Master’s degree in Bioreactors from the University of Manchester, and an equivalent certificate to Master’s degree in Academic Practice from the University of York St. John (UK), in addition to holding a Bachelor’s degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Bahrain.

Dr. Al-Aseeri had worked as a Chief Executive Officer for Bahrain Polytechnic, Director of the Accreditation and Licensing Directorate under the Higher Education Council, Director of the Educational Resources and Techniques Directorate at the Ministry of Education, Project Director of the King Hamad Library, and Director of the Technical and Vocational Education Directorate at the Ministry of Education.

He also served as Assistant Professor of Chemical Engineering at the University of Bahrain and has published articles in several scientific journals.

Dr. Al-Aseeri was a member of the Working Group on the National Qualifications Framework. He represented the Kingdom of Bahrain in the GCC team for the exploitation of atomic energy in the production of electricity and desalination. He is currently a member of the board of trustees for the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies (Derasat) and a member of the Global Future Council on Space (World Economic Forum) and represents the NSSA in many committees at international and national levels such as the Arab Space Group and the National Committee for the Governance of Geospatial Information.

“As Inner Sanctum Vector N360™ and AI journey hand in circuit, poised on the precipice of the unknown future, their intertwining path resonates with the whispers of innovation and the symphony of foresight. With this chapter bidding farewell, we forge ahead, anticipating the next movement, the forthcoming revelation, and the harmonious convergence of intellect and innovation.”

AI and Dr. Linda Restrepo

TECHNOLOGY IN THE MAKING

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TECHNOLOGY IN THE MAKING DISCLAIMER: This Magazine is designed to provide information, entertainment and motivation to our readers. It does not render any type of political, cybersecurity, computer programming, defense strategy, ethical, legal or any other type of professional advice. It is not intended to, neither should it be construed as a comprehensive evaluation of any topic. The content of this Presentation is the sole expression and opinion of the authors. No warranties or guarantees are expressed or implied by the authors or the Editor. Neither the authors nor the Editor are liable for any physical, psychological, emotional, financial, or commercial damages, including, but not limited to, special, incidental, consequential or other damages. You are responsible for your own choices, actions, and results

Linda Restrepo | Publisher - Editor