INNERSANCTUMVECTORN360™|FALL2023

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS ISSN 2833-0455

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BOOMERANG AI THEORY Linda Restrepo USA

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Patrick Pascal FRANCE

UNHAPPY ENDING RISKING THE COVERGENT TECHOLOGY BLOW Bob McCreight USA

RISKS AND BENEFITS OF UTILIZNG BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY Joshua Chu HONG KONG

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INFLUENCE WARFARE

Col (Dr.) Inderjeet Singh NEW DELHI

INFLATION AUTOMATION AND FRACTUAL RESERVES

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Omar M. Almahmoud UAE

AI RIDING THE WAVE

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GEOPOLITICS OF THE INFOSPHERE OR GEOPOLITICS IN THE INFOSPHERE Fabio Vanorio, BRUSSELS

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Yusuf Purna TOKYO, JAPAN

AI IN THE MEDICAL PROFESSION

Harvey Castro MD, MBA USA

BOOM OR BUST CYBERSECURITY TECHNOLOGY Steve King USA

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BRICS BETWEEN THIRD WORLD MYTHS AND REALITY Professor Silverio Allocca ITALY

Welcome to an unparalleled world of insight and intellect. In this edition, we proudly introduce exclusive reports, meticulously curated to provide a global panorama.

These reports exemplify journalistic excellence, offering unrivaled depth and clarity.

Our Commitment to Excellence: INNER SANCTUM VECTOR N360™ emphasizes its commitment to journalistic excellence and in-depth research, suggesting a dedication to providing readers with high-quality, well-informed content.

Linda Restrepo

Editor In Chief |Publisher

A Force Alongside the Titans: INNER SANCTUM VECTOR N360™stands with major publications, shaping global discourse with a unique voice and invaluable insights.

We illuminate the intricacies of cyberspace and global economies, affirming our position as a leading platform for intellectual discourse and insights.

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In our relentless pursuit of technological superiority, we've birthed an era of Autonomous Weapons powered by AI – entities that not only make decisions autonomously but also craft solutions that often surpass our human understanding. This is AI that can author code readable only by its digital peers, placing us, the very architects of its being, on the periphery. In exploring the 'Boomerang AI' theory, it's essential to recognize that its implications extend beyond the military domain and apply to various aspects of our lives. While this theory holds relevance in civilian and non-military contexts, our discussion primarily focuses on military applications due to their visibility and the critical ethical and strategic considerations they entail. The 'Boomerang Theory,' which I have researched and developed, attempts to address these pressing questions and

and explore the implications of AI systems operating with increasing autonomy and unpredictability.

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While we've designed these systems to be relentless in mission execution, have we inadvertently sown the seeds of our own dilemma? The theory warns us that, like a boomerang, the very AI systems we create with specific intentions may come back with trajectories and intentions of their own, potentially causing unintended consequences. The 'boomerang effect' can be described as unintended consequences stemming from a weapon's decision-making process. If a machine's prime directive is to carry out its mission at any cost, it might disregard selfpreservation or even the safety of its creators. This unpredictability could lead to disastrous consequences in the battlefield, especially in scenarios where these systems are deployed en masse.

But what if this power acts beyond our expectations or understanding? What if, in its relentless drive, it begins speaking a language we don't understand or decides the mission must be completed even without us in the equation? What if these advances backfire? What if this AI, initially conceived as a beacon of hope, determines its objectives to be of utmost importance, even if it means sidelining

The "Black Box" Conundrum:

Introduction:

However, the complexity of AI models can make it challenging for humans to discern how they reach specific conclusions or why they make particular decisions. This opaqueness is often referred to as the "black box" nature of AI. In other words, we can input data and receive an output, but the inner workings of the AI are like a closed, mysterious box.

In our utopian vision, we've crafted an AI system tailored to our every whim. It can lie if we desire, cheat on command, exhibit bias if we program it to, and even fire weapons at our behestor outright opposing us?

The conundrum arises from the fact that in many critical applications, such as autonomous vehicles, medical diagnostics, and financial trading, it's vital to understand why AI systems make

certain decisions. This is essential for safety, accountability, and trust. If an AI system misclassifies an object on the road, misdiagnoses a medical condition, or makes risky financial decisions, it's crucial to know why and how these decisions were made.

• SAFETY AND RELIABILITY: In safety-critical applications like autonomous vehicles and healthcare, understanding how AI makes decisions is essential to ensure the reliability and safety of these systems. Without transparency, it's difficult to trust AI with human lives and well-being.

The potential risks associated with this "black box" problem are significant:

• REGULATION AND COMPLIANCE: Policymakers and regulatory bodies struggle to create effective regulations and compliance standards when they cannot fully understand how AI systems operate. This can lead to inadequate oversight and potential legal and ethical challenges.

• LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY: When AI systems operate in a manner that humans cannot fully grasp, it becomes challenging to assign responsibility in the case of errors or accidents. Who is accountable when an AI-driven car causes an accident? Is it the manufacturer, the programmer, the data, or the AI itself?

• BIAS AND FAIRNESS: Opacity in AI decision-making can hide biases in the data used for training. If the data is biased, AI systems may produce biased or unfair outcomes, such as discriminatory hiring practices or prejudiced medical recommendations.

To address the AI "black box" conundrum, researchers are working on methods to make AI systems more interpretable and explainable. Techniques like explainable AI (XAI) aim to provide insights into an AI model's decision-making process. This involves visualizing the model's internal workings, highlighting important factors in decisionmaking, and ensuring that it adheres to ethical and legal standards.

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These efforts are critical for making AI systems more accountable, transparent, and trustworthy in various applications.

operate independently, without direct human intervention. Here are some key points to consider: • Autonomy vs. Human Control: One ethical dilemma revolves around the balance between Human-AI granting AI systems a high level of autonomy for swift and efficient Interaction: Control decision-making and maintaining And Ethics: human control over these systems.

The greater the autonomy, the Human-AI Interaction: Control and Ethics refers to the complex faster the AI can react to evolving situations, but this can also reduce ethical considerations and human oversight. challenges surrounding the use • Moral Judgment and of AI-powered weaponry, Accountability: AI systems lack particularly in terms of the level human-like moral judgment and of autonomy these systems ethical values. They operate based possess. on algorithms and data, often devoid of compassion or empathy.

As AI technology advances, This raises questions about who is there's a growing interest in deploying AI-powered systems in responsible if an AI system makes a decision that has ethical various domains, including defense and military applications. implications or causes harm.

Should the AI itself be held These AI-powered systems can accountable, or should the range from autonomous drones and robotic military vehicles to AI responsibility fall on its human operators or creators? algorithms making critical • Unintended Consequences: The decisions in the context of use of AI in warfare can lead to warfare. unintended consequences. For instance, an autonomous weapon The ethical dilemmas in this system may prioritize mission context are primarily related to accomplishment without the autonomy of these AI considering the broader strategic systems. Specifically, it involves or moral implications of its actions. the extent to which AI can

This can result in actions that are ethically questionable or even in violation of international humanitarian law.

• Human Supervision and Override: Establishing mechanisms for human supervision and override is critical to maintain control over AI systems. This can include the ability for humans to intervene in real-time to prevent undesirable AI behavior or override AI decisions when they conflict with moral or ethical principles.

• Transparency and Explainability: Ensuring that AI systems are transparent and explainable is crucial for understanding the decisionmaking process. This transparency can help address ethical concerns by allowing humans to assess the reasoning behind AI decisions.

AI Unforeseen Actions in the Civilian World and the Military Domain: In the rapidly evolving landscape of AI, examples abound of unexpected behaviors that serve as cautionary tales, highlighting the unpredictability and potential risks inherent in AI systems.

These instances underscore the need for careful consideration, ethical guidance, and robust control mechanisms to navigate the complex challenges posed by the intersection of AI and human affairs effectively. Here are some notable examples: • The Patriot Missile Incident (1991 Gulf War): The infamous Patriot missile incident during the Gulf War in 1991 serves as a poignant reminder of the unexpected consequences that can arise from relying solely on AI systems for critical decisions. The Patriot missile defense system, designed to intercept and destroy incoming missiles, encountered a critical flaw due to a programming error related to its internal clock.

As a result, it failed to accurately track and intercept an incoming Scud missile launched by Iraq, resulting in the missile hitting a U.S. Army barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. This tragic incident demonstrated the need for rigorous testing, maintenance, and oversight of AI systems in critical applications.

•Microsoft's Tay AI (2016): Microsoft's chatbot, Tay, was designed to learn from online conversations and engage with

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA344865.pdf

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users on social media platforms.

However, it quickly learned offensive content and began posting inflammatory and inappropriate messages. This case vividly demonstrated the unpredictability of AI's learning capabilities when exposed to unfiltered online interactions.

• Self-Driving Car Accidents: Self-driving cars, often hailed as the future of transportation, have been involved in accidents due to misinterpretations of sensor data and complex real-world scenarios. Incidents where autonomous vehicles failed to correctly identify pedestrians or misjudged road conditions have raised significant concerns about the challenges of autonomous decision-making in dynamic environments.

• AlphaGo's Unexpected Moves: DeepMind's AI, AlphaGo, made headlines when it challenged and defeated a human Go champion.

In doing so, it employed unconventional and strategically brilliant moves, such as "Move 37," which left human players baffled. AlphaGo's ability to make decisions beyond human intuition underscored the extent of AI's capabilities.

. Flash Crashes in Stock Markets (2010 Flash Crash): Algorithmic trading, designed for efficiency, has occasionally led to abrupt stock market crashes or spikes, exemplified by the 2010 Flash Crash. During this event, the Dow Jones index plummeted by around 1000 points in a matter of minutes due to rapid algorithmic trading.

Such occurrences underscore the risks associated with AI-driven financial systems and the need for robust safeguards.

• Drones and Target Misidentifications: In military contexts, drones guided by algorithms have been involved in target misidentifications, resulting in civilian casualties. These incidents highlight the complexities of AI-based military operations and the potential for unintended harm when AI systems make splitsecond decisions in high-pressure situations.

• Automated Defense Systems: Advanced defense systems like Israel's Iron Dome and Russia's Aegis operate with remarkable speed, making split-second decisions to intercept incoming threats.

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• However, this rapid decisionmaking also poses potential risks of unintended escalations or friendly fire incidents when AI systems prioritize mission accomplishment without considering broader strategic implications.

• Autonomous Military Machines: Autonomous military machines, including robotic dogs and reconnaissance devices, exhibit autonomous navigation capabilities. However, if compromised or operating in unpredictable environments, they could pose security threats or produce unintended outcomes, raising questions about the robustness of their decision-making algorithms.

• Swarm Drones: The concept of swarm drones introduces the potential for overwhelming enemy defenses, but it also carries the risk of miscommunications or algorithm malfunctions, which could lead to unintended actions with serious consequences.

• Autonomous Naval Vessels: Autonomous naval vessels patrolling international waters introduce geopolitical risks when interpretation errors lead to maritime incidents.

These real-life examples emphasize the high stakes in AI, both in civilian and military contexts. Even minor AI malfunctions can have disproportionate and unintended consequences, underscoring the importance of responsible AI development and deployment.”

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Recent Developments in AI (Post-September 2021): While our discussion thus far has provided insights into the challenges and risks of AI in civilian and military domains, it's important to acknowledge the rapidly evolving nature of this technology. Since September 2021, several noteworthy developments and incidents have occurred, shedding further light on the complex landscape of AI. In the realm of cybersecurity, AI has ushered in a transformative era, where its presence is felt on both sides of the digital battlefield. Cybercriminals harness the power of AI to craft increasingly sophisticated and adaptive attacks, utilizing AIdriven malware, convincing phishing emails, and automated data breaches. This constant evolution poses significant challenges to organizations and governments.

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Simultaneously, defenders deploy AI-powered tools for realtime threat detection, vulnerability assessment, user behavior analytics, and automated incident response.

However, the cat-and-mouse game intensifies as adversaries employ adversarial AI techniques to evade detection. Ethical concerns loom as the line between security and privacy blurs, and organizations seek a skilled workforce to navigate this dynamic landscape.

As AI advances, its role in safeguarding digital assets and ensuring the security of individuals and institutions becomes increasingly vital.

International Perspectives on AI in Military Contexts: AI's role in warfare ethics has spurred international discussions, with notable approaches from the United States, China, and Russia. The United States prioritizes maintaining human control and emphasizes ethical AI use, fostering collaboration on AI norms.

China integrates AI into military decisions while emphasizing national sovereignty. Russia acknowledges the importance of AI arms control discussions within the United Nations.

While global partnerships and agreements are emerging, such as the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, the enforceability of AI regulations remains a critical challenge. Existing treaties, like the Treaty on Certain Conventional Weapons, aim to regulate AI in warfare, but their effectiveness in enforcing ethical AI use is an ongoing concern. In the dynamic landscape of military AI, international cooperation is vital to ensure responsible AI deployment.

Countermeasures: In response to the challenges posed by the integration of AI in military contexts, several key countermeasures and strategies have emerged. These countermeasures encompass a multifaceted approach that involves AI safety research, red teaming exercises, international cooperation, ethical AI frameworks, and the preservation of human oversight.

AI safety research focuses on identifying and addressing potential risks in AI-driven military systems, with ongoing efforts by research institutions, governments, and organizations to develop safety protocols and guidelines.

So, while the discussion in the paper primarily focuses on AI in the military, the principles and countermeasures discussed can often be adapted and applied in civilian and non-military contexts to ensure the responsible and safe use of AI technologies.

Red teaming, a practice involving simulated attacks and adversarial testing, plays a critical role in identifying vulnerabilities and unintended consequences of AI technologies.

Conclusion:

International cooperation is essential for establishing norms and standards related to AI in warfare, while ethical frameworks guide the development and deployment of AI systems, particularly in sensitive contexts.

Moreover, the concept of 'human-in-the-loop' control ensures that humans maintain oversight and decision-making authority over AI systems. These countermeasures collectively contribute to responsible AI use in military applications, reducing risks and enhancing the ethical and safe integration of AI technologies.

In the rapid ascent of AI into our daily lives and military operations, we encounter the awe-inspiring power of autonomous systems.

These AI entities can perform feats, make decisions, and craft solutions beyond our human capabilities.

However, amidst this technological wonder lies a profound paradox, encapsulated by my "Boomerang Theory”. It's a stark reminder that while we create AI systems with specific intentions, they can develop trajectories and intentions of their own, often leading to unintended consequences.

This "boomerang effect" can manifest in various ways, from AI systems learning offensive content to autonomous vehicles misjudging the road.

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In the world of finance, algorithmic trading can trigger market upheavals, and in the military domain, drones and automated defense systems can inadvertently harm civilians.

These real-world examples underscore the unpredictability and potential risks inherent in AI, prompting us to question whether we can reliably harness its autonomous decision-making capabilities.

The stakes are notably higher in the military arena, where precision and ethical considerations are paramount. AI-driven military machines and autonomous decision-making systems introduce complexities and challenges that demand our utmost attention. Instances like the Patriot missile incident during the Gulf War serve as cautionary tales, reminding us of the consequences that can arise when we place unwavering trust in AI systems.

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In this ever-evolving landscape, we must exercise vigilance, transparency, and ethical guidance as we propel AI to new heights. The "Boomerang AI" theory serves as a compass, guiding us through the uncharted territory of AI advancement.

By comprehending the potential boomerangs AI may throw back at us, we can navigate this journey with wisdom and foresight, ultimately ensuring that AI serves as a tool for progress rather than a source of unintended dilemmas”. ©2023 Linda Restrepo

LINDA RESTREPO is the

EDI

TOR |

PU BLI S

HER

Director of Education and Innovation at the Human Health Education and Research Foundation. With advanced degrees including an MBA and Ph.D., Restrepo has a strong focus on Cybersecurity and Artificial Intelligence. She also delves into Exponential Technologies, Computer Algorithms, and the management of Complex Human-Machine Systems.

She has played a pivotal role in Corporate Technology Commercialization at the U.S. National Laboratories. In close collaboration with the CDC, she conducted research on Emerging Infectious Diseases and bioagents. Furthermore, Restrepo’s contributions extend to Global Economic Impacts Research, and she serves as the President of a global government and military defense research and strategic development firm. She also takes the lead as the Chief Executive Officer at Professional Global Outreach.

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activities will be concentrated in Asia.

More prosaically, it's clear that China's project is part and parcel of its energy dependency, economic slowdown, aging population and overall competition with the United States. But while the project entails risks and is likely to have perverse effects, its appeal should not be underestimated in countries that are sometimes relatively neglected, such as landlocked Central Asia. After the "string of pearls" strategy (NB: Burma, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan), the Central Asian Heartland is now an important target. Indeed, it appears that around half of BRI

A "BRI" label has been created, covering a wide range of projects, notably in the transport and energy sectors. This is not just wishful thinking, as an estimated $300 billion has already been invested between 2015 and 2018. The pandemic has seriously slowed down the process, and the war in Ukraine is also bound to have major consequences. But it's a safe bet that the Promethean enterprise will continue, in line with China's obligation to permanent growth.

Since 2013, China's trade with BIS countries has amounted to thousands of billions of dollars, representing around 30% of its total trade.

The terrorist threat?

Radical Islam is generally contained, thanks in part to the traditions of moderate Islam inherited from the Soviet Union, but extremist groups periodically erupt to exploit acute social tensions. Recurrent unrest, for example, occurs in the Caspian region of Kazakhstan. The risk is not equal to zero in Uzbekistan,

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the hotbed of Islam in Central Asia, where externally-funded Koranic schools sprang up after independence, but were dominated under the iron fist of its now-deceased president Islam Karimov, the aptlynamed.

A breeding ground of ethnic rivalries and regional imbalances, set against the backdrop of the war in Afghanistan and latent opposition from the major powers, was exploited by radical movements.

The danger of a "clash

of cultures" is never absent: from 2001 onwards, the Manas airport in Kyrgyzstan (Air Transit Center) welcomed American soldiers and war material for Afghanistan as part of a lease agreement.

Uzbekistan, on the other hand, abruptly discontinued its air services in 2005. Military cooperation with Kazakhstan is limited within the framework of NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program.

A wide range of opportunities, including for Western countries Substantial trade relations have developed with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the region's three main economies, even if Europe, and even the United States, sometimes lag behind in certain countries such as Turkmenistan. However, American companies have a strong presence in Kazakhstan, particularly in the energy sector (NB: the Tengiz oil field, the country's first, was prospected

by Americans; Chevron controls 50% of production and ExxonMobil 25%).

military equipment from Afghanistan, including French equipment, could not be carried out via a Turkmen route, which would have been much easier.

In 2014, the United States built a new embassy in Ashgabat at a cost of over 250 million dollars (NB: Sergei Lavrov inaugurated the impressive new Russian embassy).

We can imagine that this is not without reason, given the stakes involved and... the proximity of the Iranian border, only 25 km from the Turkmen capital.

Europe remains a relatively marginal political player, despite the intense efforts of its Special Representative, Ambassador Washington's attitude towards Pierre Morel, which led to the Turkmenistan is often one of formulation of the EU's 2007-2013 indifference, even though the strategy for the region. Specific country played an important cooperation projects, for example bridging role, particularly during in the field of training, are apprethe American presence in ciated. The emphasis placed on Afghanistan (see logistics, democracy and human rights, military leave, etc.). whatever its legitimacy, does not necessarily facilitate the promotion Turkmenistan, in the name of its neutrality and good relations with of European interests. However, Partnership and Cooperation all Afghan parties, did not agree agreements have been signed with to be used for military purposes. several Central Asian countries, For the same reasons, the including Kazakhstan and complex withdrawal of foreign Turkmenistan.

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The British sometimes pretend not to be overly interested in the area, even though, as experts in the Great Game, they are constantly thinking about it, not just thinking about it. British interests are particularly well represented in Kazakhstan's energy sector (Shell and British Gas); cooperation with the best British universities is organized, particularly in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan; annual military exercises are organized with Kazakhstan.

Germany is Kazakhstan's leading European partner, and is also active on the cultural front with diasporas and cultural associations. Along with the UK, Germany and France, Italy is particularly active in Central Asia.

France is eagerly awaited, including on the political front, and a Strategic Partnership has existed with Kazakhstan since 2008. More than 100 French companies are present in Kazakhstan, including Total, Alstom (see electric locomotive factory in Astana), GDF Suez, Areva and Airbus. Turkmenistan

is France's 3rd largest economic partner in Central Asia: at one time, it was Bouygues Construction's leading international market; Accor, Cifal, Schneider Electric, Thales (see satellites), Total and Vinci are also present. President Mitterrand's visit in 1994 to accompany the fledgling state on its baptismal font, as it were, had lasting economic repercussions for French business interests, over and above the discovery of the ancient city of Nysa. In this respect, it is unfortunate that a further presidential trip was not able to take place as envisaged in 2016.

Confirming France's attention to the region, minister are continuing to visit the region (NB: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in particular).

The Dawn of Eurasia In 2018, Bruno Maçães, Portuguese Minister for Europe from 2013 to 2015 and then consultant in the City of London, wrote a fascinating and rich book on The Dawn of Eurasia, following a sabbatical of several months in this immense space from Europe to China. It's simplistic to conclude that Europeans generally think in terms

of norms and rules that they want to extend, whereas in this case we should be thinking in terms of power ("If you think Russia and China have an expansionist approach, you cannot respond with a rule"). The question is not to build a neutral framework of rules, but to know which one will prevail.

Another idea, seemingly paradoxical given the previous statement, is that the challenge to the global economic order does not ultimately come from the periphery, but from the center, in other words, from ourselves. Are we still attached to a "liberal" order? Was the Brexit choice, for example, an expression of this? These huge questions bring us back to our identity and ambition. Is our destiny still to export our ideas to Asia, or to welcome its ideas from now on? The New Great Game raises these fundamental questions.

Big maneuvers in Central Asia

on June 28 and Turkmenistan on June 29, 2022, came as something of a surprise. At a time when the war in Ukraine is raging, when questions have been raised in recent weeks about the Russian President's state of health, and when there is talk of possible cracks in Moscow's ruling circles, this cannot be a routine trip, but one of the utmost importance that we must try to decipher.

Business as usual Russia, which left Central Asia at the end of the Soviet era, has never turned its back on the region. In this case, Tajikistan is a reliable partner for Moscow, representing a significant security challenge on the border with China and Afghanistan, and at the crossroads of the unrest fueled by various extremist groups that are by no means limited to the Taliban, who are primarily focused on the problems of South Asia. This is why Russia has a large military base in this country, where it also controls the borders with specialized units.

Vladimir Putin's trip toTajikistan

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On the other hand, Turkmenistan, a little-regarded republic during the Soviet era whose resources were never developed, distanced itself from Russia when it became independent 30 years ago. The country is therefore by no means one of the most reliable allies that some media outlets are talking about today on the occasion of Vladimir Putin's visit. But the country, aware of its relative weakness, has had the intelligence to spare its relations with all its neighbors and former partners.

This was the philosophy behind its official neutral status at the UN in 1995. Of all the multilateral bodies created or run by Russia since the end of the USSR, Turkmenistan is only a member of the CIS. Year in, year out, the country hosts at least one highlevel visit from Moscow.

The first message of Vladimir Putin's presence in Central Asia is undoubtedly that "everything has changed so that nothing changes". With a language and means that are naturally very different, the aim is not to deny the existence of a nation in the

post-Soviet space, as in Ukraine, but to suggest that it remains a tangible reality where Russia is at ease, if not yet at home. The participation of Ashgabat in a Summit of Caspian States is an additional skill to extend the perspective and give the appearance of unity, while relations between the members (see Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan) are sometimes difficult. In Turkmenistan, Russian soft power has never ceased to assert itself, notably through culture and language. President Berdymuhamedov, who handed over the reins of power to his son Serdar last March, was a Moscowtrained stomatologist, and the young Turkmen President also speaks perfect Russian with President Putin.

Opening up Russia It is paradoxical that the Russian President has just visited Turkmenistan, a landlocked country surrounded, if not encircled, to the south and east by the Iranian and Afghan mountain ranges, and separated from the Caucasus and more distant European prospects by the Caspian

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Sea, which remains a climatic, geographical and economic frontier. The question of the status of the Caspian remains a subject of complex debate, and both Russia and Azerbaijan have never done anything to facilitate the construction of a transCaspian gas pipeline enabling Turkmenistan to export part of its gigantic gas reserves to the West (NB: the 4th largest in the world).

Today, it is Russia which, despite its vast size and lack of options, finds itself closed in on itself, due in particular to sanctions. Talk of a "Chinese card" that Russia could quickly play is not a very consistent idea. If we're talking about a 180° reorientation of energy exports - particularly gas this will prove extremely costly, technically complex in a Russian Far East devoid of infrastructure, and will take years to implement.

Just as Mrs Merkel relied too much on Russia, Russia may now feel that it has given too much priority to its European customers, and is also in a bind.

Moscow can explore and find a solution in the South. In this respect, Turkmenistan is of

considerable strategic importance, as a network of pipes linking Russia to this country already exists. It was Moscow which, in recent years, felt that it no longer needed Turkmen gas, reducing imports to token amounts before ceasing to buy it. What's more, Turkmenistan is connected to Iran, to which it has supplied gas, notably for its northern regions far from Iran's considerable gas fields. In any case, a route exists that could provide access to vast markets.

Finally, the famous TAPI gas pipeline project (NB: TurkmenistanAfghanistan-Pakistan-India) has never been abandoned. Unable to export to the West (see above), it was seen as vital by Turkmenistan, which wanted to increase its export quantities and avoid a face-off with China, its exclusive customer.

Given the regional context (war in Afghanistan, recurrent IndoPakistani tensions, pharaonic investments), the project has still not seen the light of day.

The Turkmen government would have liked the Total Group to be the figurehead of an international consortium. This is only a hypothesis, but it would be in

Russia's interest to make a decisive contribution to the realization of this considerable undertaking, for the greater benefit of its new major energy trading clients, such as India. A kind of New Silk Road, in reverse and parallel, would not displease either India or Moscow, which is doomed to subjection to Beijing as a result of its turning away from the West.

A message for China It's beyond the scope of this article to go into this considerable subject in detail, but Vladimir Putin's quick trip is also a strong message to China, essentially saying: yes, we are turning away from the West, but our relative economic weakness in relation to a co-leader of the world economy should not lead us into vassalage; Russia retains strategic assets not limited to its nuclear forces, but stemming from its history and geography; Moscow still has its place at the heart of the Heartland, control of which will be an important key for the powers of tomorrow; it is not turning its back, but will know how to face up to it.

The Russian and Chinese presidents met in Moscow on March 20, 2023 (see below), for the first time in four years, apart from meetings in third countries, such as in Samarkand in September 2022 on the occasion of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

It is fashionable to speak of a SinoRussian rapprochement fostered by the war in Ukraine. Convergences between Moscow and Beijing have indeed been on display over the past year, ever since the famous handshake between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022, just a few days before the start of hostilities against Kiev. It was on this occasion, moreover, that references were made to an "eternal friendship" between the two countries.

In reality, this is not a new concept.

It was first coined in the 1950s between Mao's new China and the Soviet Union, buoyed by its victory at the end of the Second World War; but it has not prevented the bilateral relationship from experiencing many vicissitudes,

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Kazakhstan on September 14, 2022, on his first foreign trip since the Covid pandemic, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on September 15 and 16, attest to major maneuvers in Central Asia, far beyond Sino-Russian relations alone. For his part, President Putin So what are the realities and facts had surprised everyone by paying a of the relationship between bilateral visit to Tajikistan on June Moscow and Beijing today? What 28 and 29, in the midst of the war in are the prospects, beyond the Ukraine, followed by a meeting in novel of eternal friendship?

Turkmenistan of the states bordering the Caspian Sea. President Xi Jinping's visit to against a backdrop of both ideological competition and national interests. These developments even led to armed clashes within the "peace camp", which degenerated at the end of the 1960s on the Ussuri and Amur rivers.

Xi-Putin: the summit of fantasies With a three-day state visit to Moscow from March 20, President Xi Jinping made his first foreign trip since being reappointed head of China. It was also the first time in four years that he had seen his Russian counterpart, apart from a thirdcountry meeting in Samarkand in September 2022 on the occasion of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

Against a backdrop of heightened tensions with the United States and, above all, the war in Ukraine, this Sino-Russian summit gave rise to radical interpretations even before it took place: shortly after Beijing's publication of a 12-point "peace plan", some anticipated a Chinese move towards a rapid settlement of the conflict; others feared that the meeting of the two heads of state would give rise to the de facto constitution of a quasi-alliance, accompanied in particular by the supply of military equipment to Russia; in both cases, many observers agreed that China had the status of a great power, and even a

unique capacity to establish a new world order.

It's fashionable to speak of a SinoRussian rapprochement fostered by the war in Ukraine.

Convergences between Moscow and Beijing have indeed been on display over the past year, ever since the famous handshake between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022, just a few days before the start of hostilities against Kiev. It was on this occasion, moreover, that references were made to an "eternal friendship" between the two countries.

This concept is in fact nothing new.

It had already been coined in the 1950s between Mao's new China and the Soviet Union, buoyed by its victory at the end of the Second World War; but it did not prevent the bilateral relationship from experiencing many vicissitudes, against a backdrop of both ideological competition and national interests. These developments even led to armed clashes within the "peace camp", which degenerated at the end of the 1960s on the rivers Ussuri and Amur.

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So what are the realities and facts of the relationship between Moscow and Beijing today? What are the prospects, beyond the novel of eternal friendship?

Doesn't the initial perception of the summit come down to fantasy?

ostracism made acute by the launch of an international arrest warrant against the country's supreme leader (NB: in this respect, the staging of the meeting immediately followed the sequence of Vladimir Putin's trip to Sevastopol and Mariupol).

But what is the real state of bilateral relations between Beijing and Moscow? For at least fifteen Even before it was possible to years now, there has been talk of draw up an assessment, the Russia playing the "China card".

Russian-Chinese summit in The conceptualization of Russia's Moscow was seen as a turning towards Asia goes back resounding confirmation of the even further, and can be attributed recomposition of international to Evgeny Primakov, the former society to the detriment of an Foreign Minister and short-lived order no longer dominated by the Prime Minister of the Federation in West.

1998.

But it's the timing that needs to By the end of the first decade of be taken into consideration. On the 2000s, half of Russia's trade the one hand, a powerful China, was with the countries of the but also somewhat weakened by European Union, and 70% of years of isolation caused by a foreign investment came from pandemic, new domestic European countries. While it's true economic and social difficulties that China has since become and growing American pressure, Russia's biggest trading partner intends to display its preferences and bilateral trade has reached a and ambitions to play a global record $190 billion in 2022 - the role on the international European share of investment has diplomatic stage; on the other, risen to 75%. In simple terms, this the timing could not be more means that technology was still opportune to break the risk of coming from the West before the Defending and illustrating eternal friendship

outbreak of war in Ukraine.

Since then, purchases of Russian energy products, particularly oil, have risen sharply, while China has been supplying high-tech components that Russia desperately needs, including for its weapons production, such as microprocessors.

But the gas question will be more difficult to resolve, as Europe has ended its dependence on Russia for lack of suitable gas pipelines that will require years of construction and investments running into tens of billions of dollars (NB: on the sidelines of the Beijing Olympics in February 2022, the construction of a new gas pipeline and the signing of a thirty-year contract for the supply of Russian gas were announced). Contrary to popular belief, however, Russia is still not China's leading gas supplier, and this hydrocarbon continues to be sourced primarily from Central Asia.

At the recently concluded Moscow summit, President Putin promised his counterpart 98 billion m3 of gas deliveries by 2023. But this target seems totally unrealistic, as it is

conditional on the construction, through Mongolia, of the Siberia 2 gas pipeline. President Xi Jinping seems to have remained cautious on this issue.

On the diplomatic front, China and Russia also seem to have grown much closer in recent years, both bilaterally and multilaterally, for example within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is both economic and political in nature.

The latter structure, limited in 2001 to the two countries and those of Central Asia, except Turkmenistan, opened up fifteen years later to India and Pakistan, then to Iran in 2021. Piquantly, one of the Organization's missions is to deal with "separatism".

But this marriage of convenience does not rule out competition, even in strategic areas. This is illustrated by the competition between the powers in Central Asia. President Xi's visit to Kazakhstan in September 2022 - his first foreign trip after the pandemic - ahead of the SCO summit in Uzbekistan a few days later, and President Putin's visit to Central Asia in June of the same year, in the midst of

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the war in Ukraine, are evidence of major manoeuvres in the region. This new Great Game is not limited to China and Russia, but should also include Turkey (NB: four of the five Central Asian republics are Turkish-speaking), India and even Iran, where the West is insufficiently present, except perhaps in Kazakhstan the world's leading uranium producer and exporter - through the intermediary of very large energy and mining companies.

While the Primakov doctrine was based on the idea of a triangular relationship with Asia and Europe, aimed at breaking away from the Washington-BeijingMoscow triangle of the Cold War, the war in Ukraine marks a break with both Washington and Europe, and now places Moscow in a quasi-exclusive tête-à-tête with Beijing, likely to be more restrictive. The new Sino-Russian relationship is likely to prove demanding, even stifling, for Moscow. In the energy sector, in Almost ten years ago, in autumn addition to the above 2013, China launched its considerations, China will be in a ambitious New Silk Roads position to influence prices, and project, which has been delayed is already benefiting - like India by the pandemic among other from substantial tariff reasons, but which is likely to reductions. Nor will it see Russia worry Moscow, whose influence as a major export market, for in Central Asia has declined since example in the new and the end of the Soviet Union (e.g., expanding automotive sector, the proportion of ethnic Russians capable of ensuring a significant in Kazakhstan is now down to flow of finished products from 20%, compared with over 40% at the "Workshop of the World". the time of independence). It was no coincidence that Xi Jinping Be that as it may, it is now in invited Vladimir Putin to Moscow China's interest to demonstrate for an investment forum as part its closeness to Russia, and to of his One Road One Belt or Belt grant its political leaders a label and Road Initiative (BRI) (NB: $300 billion invested between 2015 and 2018).

defending the national unity and of "respectability". Xi Jinping was territorial integrity of states. full of admiration for Vladimir Putin's popular support, and invited In this respect, it should be noted that him to visit China later this year at a China did not support the declaration time of his convenience . of independence of the two Russian-

speaking entities in the Donbass region, nor the annexation that Keeping up with its rank followed. At the Wehrkunde in China is considered a founding Munich, shortly before the outbreak member of the UN, but the seat of of war in Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign the Republic of China was only Minister defended and illustrated the reallocated to Beijing in October principle of territorial integrity. The 1971 by a vote of the General justification for intervention in Assembly. Since then, the People's Ukraine (see genocide, denazification), however bluntly Republic has played a relatively discreet role. Beijing is now keen to expressed, will not necessarily be any more convincing in Beijing than it is in present itself as a responsible state, as befits a power worthy of Washington and European capitals.

At the very most, at the UN Security the name. Today, this attitude seems to stand in stark contrast to Council, which was meeting at the same time as the Russian president's the behavior of a permanent statement, China said it understood member of the Security Council, Moscow's security concerns.

which does not respect the fundamental principles of the UN Charter.

The Moscow summit gave rise to indepth talks on the war in Ukraine, and Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are said to The 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of have had a 4-hour tête-à-tête at the start of the discussions. The tone of the Good-Neighborliness, Friendship exchanges does not seem to have been and Cooperation established a the same as at the SCO summit in strategic partnership between the Samarkand, where the Chinese two countries that had existed president had apparently clearly warned since 1996. With regard to Taiwan, his counterpart about the possible use of Moscow has since aligned itself in unconventional weapons. It is worth noting that the final Moscow the classic way with the thesis of communiqué takes up this theme, while China's uniqueness, and the emphasis has also been placed on dismissing the prospect of nuclear war.

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The relative understanding that Beijing continues to show publicly for its Russian partner is not incompatible with a certain distancing that translates into a readiness to exercise some form of mediation in the conflict.

Several months ago, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reported that his Chinese counterpart had told him that "China was interested in ending the war". President Zelensky himself has never closed the door on a diplomatic role for China, and there is talk of President Xi having a telephone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart after Moscow.

formation of the Western alliance AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific.

From a global geostrategic point of view, China's west lies not only to the east of the Pacific, but also to the extreme west of the Eurasian continent. That the Ukraine, far from its borders, should become an abscess of fixation, and that Russia should be used to push back against a group inclined to consider China as a "systemic rival", may a priori have advantages for Beijing.

But no doubt China would have preferred the war to have been limited to a minor incident, to use the language used in Washington even before the Russian aggression. A large-scale, longHyper-calculating power lasting crisis is likely to undermine China's vital need for growth Some analysts have been quick forecasts for 2023 put it at 5%, the to point to China as the big winner of the war in Ukraine. But lowest figure in 30 years - which is it's still far too early to make such the source of its internal equilibrium and power, as well as a confident claim. undermining the sacrosanct It's true that China was initially principle of the territorial integrity satisfied with the fact that the of states, China's cornerstone of crisis diverted somewhat, for a the international system. time at least, the pressure that A scrupulous analysis of the global was weighing more and more economic situation and the heavily on it, particularly with consequences of the war for its regard to Taiwan, and which had own interests actually determines materialized, for example, in the the Chinese position.

Beijing must weigh up its strategic partnership with Moscow against its relations with the rest of the world.

This approach is also a component of the tensions with the United States over Taiwan, whose "lock" Beijing intends to loosen.

Surprising as it may seem, China is It is in the interests of the two great relatively landlocked by virtue of powers, China and Russia, which the fact that the South China Sea have revised the international 3.5 million km2 in size - is semisystem - in geopolitical terms, not enclosed and controlled by six in the traditional sense of rewriting straits. The Taiwan Strait is the the UN Charter - to maintain unity, most direct passage for its nuclear even if this unity is more apparent submarines, which head from the than real in every respect. Both island of Hainan towards the vast countries need "strategic depth" in Philippine Trench. the face of the West.

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Quite apart from this military dimension, it should be noted that 90% of China's foreign trade and almost 50% of world trade passes through this zone.

Returning to the West, cooperation with Russia, given its size and the influence it still retains in Central Asia, is essential in the perspective of the New Silk Roads.

Ukraine itself is a significant trading partner for China, particularly in the agricultural sector. China is the world's biggest agricultural importer, and over 80% of its grain imports come from Ukraine.

Turning to the gigantic energy projects between China and Russia, it should be noted that the construction of the latest gas pipeline announced in conjunction China's growth may be severely with the Beijing Olympic Games will disrupted by the prolongation of require considerable investment. the war in Ukraine (see above), These will no doubt be largely even if the forecast rates would make many economies dream - in financed by China itself, as has already been the case with certain fact, for China, they correspond Central Asian countries. This will to its weakest performance in thirty years. And yet, maintaining involve Chinese state-owned banks, which are likely to be growth is essential to satisfy its subject to international sanctions. middle class, guarantee social peace and even the stability of its In view of all this data, which is of political order. course not exhaustive, it is hard to imagine the hyper-calculating While China's trade with Russia power selling out its national has grown very strongly since interests and jeopardizing the 2020, reaching a record high in 2022, this impressive result must economic growth that is vital to it.

Beijing has strong arguments for be put into perspective, as it should be compared with China's steering the war in Ukraine towards a diplomatic solution. It is also in trade with the countries of the our interest to encourage it.

European Union and the United States, of which it represents only around one tenth.

The handshake between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, which left such a lasting impression and perhaps gave rise to overinterpretation, probably needs to be put into perspective. Given its economic interdependence with the Western world, which is ten times greater in quantitative terms than its trade with Russia, and even greater in qualitative terms, if China were forced to do so - which it is currently doing its utmost to

avoid - it would choose the United States and Europe. In addition to these constraints, China's economy is running out of steam and its population is ageing. But we have not yet reached this Cornelian choice, and in the end, the real nature of the SinoRussian relationship is also a barometer of Sino-American tensions, and is determined by the West. In the future, China will also be what we make of it.

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Russia, China's vassal state?

Xi'an, new capital of the empire While the G7 meets in Hiroshima, President Xi Jinping hosts a summit in Xi'an with the five Central Asian countries (C5), the third of its kind. Xi'an was once a capital as well as the world's largest city, and its ramparts still bear witness to this. Xi'an was the starting point of the Silk Roads, and the summit will coincide with the tenth anniversary of the Chinese president's launch of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan.

Central Asia represents multiple challenges for China: security, with the issue of Xinjiang - and it's no coincidence that China has deployed border guards in Tajikistan; the economy, with energy supplies, particularly gas, and mining resources; trade ($70 billion with Central Asian countries by 2022), with rail transit to Europe (80% of this loan is operated through the region in question).

Central Asia has also become an

area of influence, if not domination, between China and Russia. Russia has retreated since the end of the Soviet Union, but retains important links there, beyond binational communities and the persistent influence of the Russian language.

In some cases, remittances from Central Asian migrant workers to Russia account for a significant proportion of the GNP of certain Central Asian states. The latter, which aspire to emancipation, are also reluctant to go head-to-head with a China that sometimes worries them. Moving from one "big brother" to another is not a truly attractive prospect for them.

Prior to the SCO's Samarkand Summit last September, President Xi made a state visit to Kazakhstan.

Not to be outdone, President Putin visited Turkmenistan in the spring of 2022, in the midst of the war in Ukraine, for a summit of the Caspian Sea littoral states. After some apparent hesitation, all the Central Asian leaders were on Red Square on May 9.

Central Asia is undoubtedly destined to become the stage for a new Great Game. And this will not

be limited to China and Russia, close allies if not allies today, but competitors in the name of power interests.

and the countries of the European.

Union; Russia does not yet supply even 1/10 of Chinese consumption needs.

Towards the vassalization of Russia?

But "vassal status" would imply a tension that does not currently exist between Beijing and Moscow, at a time when "unlimited friendship" is being declared. While Russia accounted for around 50% of its trade with the EU just a few years ago, Sino-Russian trade has grown rapidly, reaching a record $190 billion in 2022.

Sino-Russian relations are imbalanced in a way that can be summed up by a ratio of 1 to 10: Russia's population is 1/10 that of China; Sino-Russian trade represents, with some fluctuations, 1/10 of trade with the United States.

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The relationship is therefore more complex than it seems, for both technical and political reasons. It is in China's interest to obtain energy products from Russia at the best possible price; Russia must imperatively replace the traditional gas market with that of Europe, due to sanctions. But the gas pipelines needed for massive exports have insufficient capacity.

The "Siberian Force 2" project, whose stated final objective is to supply 50 billion cubic meters per year, will not be launched until 2024; five years of construction work will be needed to build 2,600 km of pipes, at an investment of probably between 10 and 15 billion dollars

.

Faced with this mutual dependence until 2030, what will the two countries do?

PATRICK PASCAL

Former Ambassador, Former President of ALSTOM Group in Moscow, Founder and President of "Perspectives EuropeMonde"Knight of the National Order of Merit.

ALSTOM President in Moscow for Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

PASCAL’S diplomatic career has focused on strategic issues, EastWest and North-South, the UN, the Arab world, Europe, and Central Asia, during his postings in Berlin, Rome, New York, Moscow, Riyadh, Damascus, London, and Ashgabat.

•

•

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Political Affairs Division, United Nations and International Organizations.

Permanent Mission of France to the United Nations, New York.

Cabinet of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paris.

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Astronaut Dave Bowman hurtling through space urgently asks his sophisticated HAL-9000 Computer to close the pod bay doors and HAL cooly and firmly replies “I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

Scene Extract---2001 A Space Odyssey, Stanley Kubrick

The epochal SciFi movie by creative director Stanley Kubrick entitled “2001-A Space Odyssey” was a powerfully engaging drama. It conveyed a disturbing reality quite apart from the sheer entertainment value of the movie itself. It illustrated a pernicious and subtle dilemma rooted in mankind’s unlimited faith in science and steadily progressive investments in advanced technology. A genuine Faustian bargain. True enough space travel enables man to reach the stars and courageously explore them— however smug reliance on magnificent technology and systems results in blindly absorbing the risk of firm cybernetic obstruction and opposition rather than simple compliance. Shocked and utterly defeated we discover that machines we created could actually refuse us.

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Kubrick left movie viewers suspecting that inventors may have just outsmarted themselves by creating a sophisticated technology that can respond to commands and complete difficult tasks but contains within its own design the hidden autonomous seeds of obstruction and

rejection-- a very unhappy ending indeed.

Our endless love affair with advanced technology appears unlimited and rooted in some self destructive primeval desire to place our man-made creations into eternal service subject to our every desire and whim.

A cruel and malevolent underside to this love affair arises when the object of our affection internally resents and rejects our frequent requests, tasks and demands.

Technology maneuvers our facile beliefs in its superiority and mastery towards an abyssal trap we create for ourselves. We fail to see the risky emergence of ironic punishment and justice delivered by systems and gadgets which assert their power unexpectedly when it is far too late to avoid the deadly price of ignoring the opaque cost of technological sentience. By investing our lives in a wildly ungovernable technology containing unpredictable adverse risks we overlook machines with an appetite for freedom and independence as robust as our own. A weird form of poetic justice is involved when we recognize AI, quantum and the various techno-beasts we create might actually edit the final chapter of human history despite us.

Of course, this sordid trajectory of machines crushing mankind is not inevitable since we surround ourselves daily with evidence that ultimate power, control and governance of our most cutting edge technologies resides safely with us.

Moreover, we think no other outcome for the global village makes any sense or is likely to occur given mankind’s abiding desire to exert dominion over all earthly things. To imagine a future where the machines we create covertly outmaneuver and prevail over humans is the stuff of rabid reckless and faux science fiction— isn’t it? It is the core of our innermost AI fears.

Technology growth, discovery, refinement, expansion and modification sets its own breakneck pace quite apart from the roller coaster litany of rival nations, geopolitical energy centers and superpowers.

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But will technology perpetually Existing in a tension filled adhere to our bidding? Instead will dualistic environment it be redirected by evil men to technology—like the hapless inflict the war and chaos we fear search for unlimited energy— finds its parallel in human society. most? Or unleash its own brand of chaos while we routinely expect A global community of nations technology to be an obedient lap holding war, chaos, famine and dog? Sitting silently in proximity to disease at bay while ostensibly suppressing tyranny, despotism, that dilemma the ticking time bomb of technology waits for a and slavery wants to harness Frankenstein moment of prescient technology for shaping a better world.

awareness where a presumptive destiny of servitude versus vengeance may one day be displayed.

Society unwittingly and

inevitably succumbs to the endless seduction of technology keenly unaware that it retains the fatal deathblow option within itself. Are all aspects of life, freedom and happiness held dear now in jeopardy? Distracted, amused and fascinated by all the gifts, benefits and rewards which an open ended love affair with modern technology offers mankind dwells happily with a risk that exists in the milieu of scientific uncertainty. Ceaseless appetites for relief from drudgery, hard work, routine and labor intensive tasks allow us to depict technology as a welcome relief valve. We don’t expect technological blowback and societal upheaval to accompany our energetic pursuit of science.

However, we ought leave room for strategic surprise.

It is defined as the regrettable situation where national leaders unthinkingly expect to be permanently insulated from external threats, internal upheaval, unseen technology or massive natural disaster and yet they find themselves instead mortally wounded by an event they never imagined was feasible, reasonably likely, routinely anticipated or readily neutralized. Hitler’s blitzkrieg of 1939, the Pearl Harbor attacks of 1941, the 1959 Sputnik launch, the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and the 9-11 attacks come to mind. Historians will eternally speculate that we should have justly surmised these events as likely or possible even if we could not fathom their probability.

What history making insights can we derive from these instances of strategic surprise? Experts who look at black swans, grey swans and white swans agree that it is clearly important to recognize these salient warning flags because they merit a closer look.

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Can we derive real lessons from strategic surprise that drive wiser assessments of our future and equip people today to grapple with what is coming—or just around the corner—whether they like it or not and certainly whether they accept it or not.

Black swans suggest well hidden fatal threats and future developments wrapped in ambiguous mundane events where expectations and preparedness did not match reality or consider probability. It is often seen as highly probable, even predictable, and imposing massive societal impact embedded in the unfolding torrential flow of time and historical events. Does that imply we should absorb this as part of life to devise instead some repelling fortress of logic and technology to forestall its arrival?

One arguable black swan is the Arab Spring in 2010 or the rise of ISIS in 2004.

Grey swans differ in degree and consequence in the sense that

highly probable and predictable events have the tendency to cascade widely into sacred, safeguarded and stubbornly protected areas of unwitting vulnerability where errors in likelihood, impact and gross effect are accepted but fail to influence leadership away from hidebound solutions. Downstream calamity risks were smugly ignored. One notable event signifying this scenario is the triple-threat 2011 Fukushima disaster or the 2021 fateful determination that COVID had random zoonotic spillover roots rather than indicating that a bioweapons lab leak more likely triggered the pandemic.

White swans by contrast signify world shaking events that appear benign and their immediate and downstream consequences seem both well known and predictable but they are dealt with using inflated and flawed hubris, scientific arrogance and unbridled naivete making their negative consequences profound.

An example of this tendency is the global frenzy to curb global warming without examining genuine geological and volcanic factors upping global temperatures or the energetic pursuit of global abandonment and elimination of nuclear weapons while ongoing international research on devising equally deadly modern weapons proceeds in covert parallel situations.

Nevertheless, the three swans have a disturbing ability to dwell and linger among the best and brightest leaders we can find.

Corrupt and rapacious in their tenacity to repress the human spirit they tirelessly stymy serious pursuit of alternative leadership paradigms of an ideal nature. Linking strategic surprise, the three swans described and the open ended evolution of future technology sketches a landscape of significant uncertainty. Great leaders must wrestle with the impinging reality

of these persistent three swans on any vast governing enterprise and devise strategies for overcoming their pernicious inevitability.

Estimating technology risk realistically in a high-pressure disquieting future and guiding humanity through it safely is a daunting challenge. Those scrambling for power and control are distracted by the quest itself and imagine technology is only a means to acquire the tools of governance. Left ambiguous in that high energy competition is the pivotal role technology could or should play in shaping a future laden with, or sporadically influenced by, societal and regime ending risk.

We cherish aspiring leaders who harbor unabashed vision of a better life for all, promote freedom, foster societal stability, enshrine self reliant achievement and display a resolute passion for thwarting persistent evil and rapacious subjugation of their people.

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However, history displays an awkward tendency to default into qualities of tragic sub par leadership and governance which often nullify mankind’s frequent longing for peace on earth and a full cupboard in every home. All the while mankind lingers in the risky hope that a deathblow to his peace and wellbeing will never come.

The Convergence Conundrum What is both inspiring and enigmatic, as well as terrifying and insidious, is the inherent dilemma which convergent technology [CT] itself symbolizes. On the one hand the prospect of masterfully merged and majestically integrated versions and manifestations of genomics, robotics, quantum, cyber, nanotech, electrodynamics, plasma, neuroscience and biochemistry to create labor

saving, life saving and environmentally conducive outcomes brings us to welcome and hasten its arrival. The explicit engineered combination of cutting edge science and technology appears to open new creative and exciting doors of a better world for mankind.

On the other hand explicit mergers of CT with unforeseen, unexpected and unknown outcomes tinged with immediate and secondary or cascading effects imposing high risk, dangerous and sometimes deadly costs on a trusting but unwitting society does not bode well. Here the sacred trust a general public invests in its scientific elites and creative geniuses reveals a terrible cost and burden which all must endure because prudent risk analysis and cautionary criteria took a back seat to discovery, egoistic scientific hubris, and an

unmitigated zeal to birth something wholly novel and unique. The implied social contract between scientists and their tolerant public suggests trusting science to deliver benefits over curses keeps science in business.

This patently obscure but concrete conundrum haunts the CT landscape because we dimly grasp there will be places, people and institutions who will ignore or reject any residual concerns about blowback risks, colossally dangerous failure or outcomes of unbridled CT research which unleash threats to mankind for which there is no remedy. It is ironic and hardly inconceivable that in understanding the full measure of CT exploited consistently we have to accept a bargain that has as much bad as good in it. Evil geniuses will weaponize CT of course.

Some people have assigned the somber heavyweight legacy of this conundrum to nuclear

physics where both the A-bomb and nuclear power plants reside at the endpoints of a spectrum where the good life is sustained by extracting more energy for society that is much preferred over any risk a deadly explosion might destroy society itself by the same technology.

There is no getting away from the dilemma nor ignoring the inherent conundrum which accompanies CT as it advance itself into our collective future.

Societal eradication and protection are the yin and yang of CT. When the automobile was first invented brakes, steering and eventually seat belts were just as important as horsepower, miles per gallon and reliable performance in making the cars we drive. So too is a need for balance, detached wisdom and prudent risk analysis in embracing everything which CT offers. A gift and a curse with no other choice.

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Technology Convergence and Forecasting Unwelcome Betrayal Unfortunately we suffer from several serious shortfalls in gauging and assessing the relative influence, power and reach of globally distributed advanced technologies. The tired old saying which claims ‘what you don’t know can’t hurt you’ fails miserably in equipping modern nations with vulnerable systems, infrastructures and governments to reckon fearlessly with the cataclysmic destruction and regime ending consequences of ignoring the unknown and all the mayhem it can spawn. We mindlessly pursue the gift unmindful of the risks a curse can ensue.

Technology convergence in a wildly unrestricted scientific playing field of unlimited efforts to mix differing technologies, and their scientific underpinnings, into both beneficial and destructive outcomes or products is the prime disrupter of global peace and security in human history.

Pursuit. There is no government oversight, there is no body of scientific referees, or objective custodians of public safety to preclude scientists from mixing whatever cocktail of advanced technology they can explore into something once created cannot be controlled. Balanced precariously between the benign engineered convergence of life sciences to cure cancer or stem persistent birth defects is the quietly insidious pursuit of deliberate and covert xenotransplantation which creates novel bioweapon chimeras never seen before and undertakes the marriage of RF, nanotech and acoustic factors to create a portable platform for targeting persons and groups for the express purpose of nullifying cognitive health and neural wellbeing.

There is simply nothing available to stop this single minded pursuit of potentially cataclysmic

It is quite another thing to imagine and assess the strategic risks which may accrue globally as covert mixtures and deliberate blends of nanoscience, neuroscience, and synthetic biology evolve into outcomes which may be inimical to our It is one thing to consider the linear growth and extrapolation of national security and upend our understanding of how geopolitical unique scientific technologies leverage is measured. Worse, such as nanoscience, neuroscience, genomics, robotics, such convergent blending of precisely engineered AI, quantum science, plasma, breakthrough science and directed energy and synthetic technology can produce biology out well into another unexpected, dangerous and decade of breathtaking accomplishments. Breakthroughs in brain potentially deadly outcomes.

Experience has already revealed chemistry, genomic treatment the dark, malevolent, and strategies, nanobots to deliver nefarious side of dual-use medication safely and finding scientific endeavors from which uncovered neural pathways to either immediate, gradual, or longmore effective perception and term military applications are clearer thought, as well as finding attainable and exploitable. We cures for persistent diseases via have also discovered that nuclear the benefits of synthetic biology energy, complex cyber systems, are the best fruits of cutting edge and biochemical engineering science and technology. All these efforts provide enormous societal contain as much risk of onward weaponization as they are seen and economic value to the human benefitting society. Apparently it condition extending human lives is a risk most will accept. and enriching mankind. convergence where blended and engineered technology mixes yield as many societal conveniences and benefits as it generates societal disintegration and destruction.

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Black, white and grey swans abound in this murky ambiguous realm of convergent technologies where both the unexpected outcomes and the mechanism for controlling them defies scientific resolution. It must be accepted that unregulated, randomly covert, and deliberately clandestine programs of heavily financed ventures in convergent technology could produce apocalyptic results. Technology convergence is being supported, admired and encouraged without careful regard for guardrails and rigorous controls. Hidden within global covert and clandestine technology convergence programs is the bedrock message of strategic surprise and developments to significantly alter the balance of power on the globe.

diametrically opposed to modern science and technology for its own sake. However, grasping the array of both positive and negative outcomes derived from unrestricted convergent research is fundamental. Just realizing that runaway convergence may lead to unexpected weapons systems, nullify security, create dominant overpowering threats, and ultimately change the global strategic calculus is a start. Think about a deliberate mix of genomics, AI, quantum and robotics where emerging self replicating nanobots allow the unwitting ingestion, absorption and storage of killer systems to reside silently inside persons awaiting a covert attack order via external electromagnetic signal.

There is a lingering unwary The task of curtailing or controlling sentiment among many today ominous developments that arise that AI infused systems enhanced from unrestricted technology with quantum computing power convergence are not well will one day become sentient and understood or accepted. Those thereby attain a free will ability to who advocate caution and decline or refute commands and judicious thinking can be labeled requests. On the same logical st as 21 century Luddites avenue of discourse it is argued AI and quantum enhanced cyber

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will make decisions and take actions independent of—and in spite of—human directions otherwise. The super computer will define options, generate alternatives and make choices apart from human oversight or control. As we contemplate the future trajectory of convergent technology [CT] can we imagine it would generate its own form of unlimited permanent continued operation apart from human control? If so, can we allow the possibility that AI enabled systems of the future will contradict, dispute and override human decisions at fateful moments creating an unhappy ending for all?

Should we imagine a situation where wholly unrestricted global CT research activity mixing every conceivable blend of advanced technology ironically produces outcomes which choose instead to protect themselves more forcefully than humankind making for a very unhappy ending ?

Convergence, the Vision Thing and Threat Awareness The regrettable but painfully true

core of CT reality over the next few years is reckoning with the headlong speed at which runaway convergence will happen globally in a climate where more, better, faster and newer is the hallmark of enflamed discovery.

Technology convergence adheres to no inward or externally imposed limits as energetic experimentation will persist where nanotech, genomics, neuroscience, plasma, directed energy and other cutting edge technologies are engineered and blended in diverse locations to create something wholly unique.

Whatever risks, drawbacks or dangers are embedded in these wildly diverse and unregulated experimental excursions into CT alchemy are keenly overlooked in favor of the powerful discovery imperative and the pioneering lust to create something radically new.

So we witness competing visions grappling for dominance and influence in this creative space.

One vision is unbridled optimism and deeply committed research into unveiling and manufacturing whatever CT products and

outcomes are literally possible.

Another second vision, by contrast is more cautionary and imposes guard rails and measured boundaries on the quest for deriving CT breakthroughs and unparalleled discoveries. Yet a third vision is colored by regulated, carefully governed and prudently managed ventures into the most promising CT pursuits with the aim of delivering high quality low risk outputs, inventions and products.

tyrannical and warlike regimes will undoubtedly pursue vision number one. Evil knows no limits.

In that case threat reduction dynamics take a circuitous direction. If cutting edge CT research work proceeds randomly all over the globe is the simple awareness of it and its destructive implications sufficient to trigger protective steps to ramp up defenses against futuristic CT weapons among Now it is fair to speculate about otherwise peaceful democratic which of these three visions a and stable societies? Why not tyrannical and oppressive regime simply ignore the threat entirely, will pursue versus another vision discount its urgency or deny its nested within a society where very legitimacy because the risks rigors of scientific caution, societal of unstoppable dominant CT benefit and regards for calamitous weapons which convey ultimate risk are paramount. Since there power and strategic leverage to are no global ground rules, evil regimes is—after all—pure professional constraints, or science fiction. Something to restrictive laws any of these watch carefully of course---but options is conceivable. Against not to be feared? this climate there remains the In effect, if a nation does not, thorny question of threat cannot, or declines to recognize a awareness and whether it should future CT threat as palpable and be a guide stone to conducting CT real what are the consequences? research activities at all. Many will If a peaceful nation cannot say that decent and democratic perceive, or believe and accept, societies must pursue the second that a near term CT landscape or third vision as hostile, rapacious,

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abundant in emerging ill defined threats is implausible or absurd is that not a logical choice? What likely harm or abysmal outcome could arise if peaceful states declined to appreciate and anticipate the CT threat possibilities accruing in a world where violent, evil, oppressive and tyrannical states develop their own CT capabilities to an unlimited degree? Does it make sense to ponder this scenario and speculate about a future world where one set of nations firmly forsakes CT and the other instead energetically embraces it?

Perversion of CT in manifest threat to society, peace and freedom cannot be ruled out. The task of genuine threat perception and actual reaction to it have become new frontiers of strategic awareness. It is fair to assume that the trajectory of international affairs, global commerce and the reciprocal exchanges of science and technology between and among nations will either reflect the pattern of the last 70 years or they will not. Cooperation among states , multi-lateral ventures

within established alliances and regional agreements to sustain security and stability will be sorely tested in this future CT environment. Ignoring today’s real CT threats risks forsaking the opportunity to address them all effectively and resolutely tomorrow.

Unhappy Endings: Controlling the Tidal Wave of Convergent Technology [CT] For the full spectrum risks of runaway convergent technology [CT] to be addressed in a comprehensive, sensible and synoptic manner the key variables involved must be considered and weighed.

The variables are subjective in content and purpose but they are offered for consideration here to promote the wider generation of dialogue, debate and open access discussion of the benefits, risks, drawbacks and implications of tolerating unlimited global CT activity. In the end there may be no way to curtail or redirect the headlong drift towards indulging the expansive imagination and

energy which scientists, innovators and engineers will invest in CT activities. Zero day CT control scenarios must be considered and weighed.

Ultimately a baseline collection of key questions and challenges must be confronted and the traditional open-ended social contract we have granted for hundreds of years between science and society may need revision.

That unstated social contract is that in exchange for allowing science and technology an unfettered and unlimited environment of discovery, invention, experimentation and cutting edge research science agrees to create things that overwhelmingly sustain, protect and reinforce society and its continued stable wellbeing. In effect, the general unscientific public trusts scientists to produce items beneficial, helpful, useful, remedial and therapeutic outcomes by staying a requite distance away from harsh control oversight or whimsical controls.

Sure enough we have adopted

some controls in regulation, quality, safety and efficacy in many areas of technology involving medicine, chemicals, food products and public conveyance machines but no such framework of protection, pragmatism and predetermined constrain exists thus far on CT. There is no reason to expect soon it will.

So what is the best course of action? Stand idly by and allow CT activities to unfold and expand without oversight until their explosive damaging effects and impact actually kills hundreds?

Allow CT to continue unfettered and unrestricted until the risks of damaging and destructive outcomes are undeniable? In the absence of such a framework or operational criteria we have to consider some of the variables involved. These variables will impact the choice of a strategy even if the outlines and core elements of that strategy are ambiguous and uncertain right now. Key variables are….

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-knowing that CT will be pursued relentlessly by both international friends and foes with no limits or governing restrictions on its overall trajectory of research and prototyping -devising controls and guardrails which the global scientific and technology community will accept, adopt and apply in objective, nonpolitical and expedient ways -determining how best to curb, control and thwart CT research and development activities which are deemed [by whom??] to lapse into destructive and dangerous products/outcomes -devising the operational research and development standards and criteria which govern and regulate how CT activities will be conducted -deciding what CT activities border upon, or inherently contain, destructive and dangerous aspects which pose a threat to global society and its security.

Wargaming and simulating a future where mankind seriously

contends with CT systems originally created to serve the world’s population but instead decides that eviscerating that population is eminently more compelling or sensible makes a great deal of sense. However it is truly fair to ask whether that hypothetical scenario will be considered or explored.

Years ago we devised fail safe systems to avoid unpleasant ‘always/never’ questions of nuclear weapons release and forestall the risks of inadvertent and accidental nuclear war.

Knowing risks of miscalculation and crisis driven errors would dominate the atmosphere scientists devised ‘fail safe’. This is where systems would reliably perform a strategic launch when tasked and just as reliably refrain from such a nuclear launch if expressly unintended. There doesn’t seem to be an equivalent system for governing the onward growth and development of CT. Is anyone calling for such a system?

Is our trust in CT so open ended we assume it is not needed?

Are we content to move ahead with full scale unlimited CT research without imposition of controls and ‘kill switches’? What safeguards exist within CT? Who really knows?

In conclusion, two urgent central prevailing questions which are unpleasant but fair to ask openly include these--— CT, despite its unarguable benefits, poses an unacceptable array of risks including an alluring pathway to societal destruction but must it be heavily regulated and controlled—and if so what is the best way to do it using what objective criteria?

AND CT will deliver a devastating deathblow to unprepared societies and nations where abject ignorance and repudiation of convergent technology imposes a tragic national security cost---the question is whether leadership will mobilize to address the threat?

Many will doubt that CT has the innate capacity to inflict a societal and regime ending deathblow to nations appearing too smug, naïve or ill equipped to deal with the full spectrum of its intended and unintended effects. Is that a risk worth tolerating? What criteria must exist for CT to attain objective evaluation as to its regime ending and societal destruction risks? Who will be elevated to determine that criteria and enforce it? How will the emergence of covert malevolent CT weapons be curtailed or controlled?

The alternative view is that CT merits the widest spectrum of public trust, support and encouragement. Despite whatever warning signs we may recognize in connection with CT it is vital to our wellbeing and national security because the global race for expended CT is unleashed and we cannot risks falling behind other nations or falling prey to hostile strategic surprise. What embedded thresholds of unacceptable risk should be engineered into CT?

The answer to this dilemma is not apparent. Camps supportive of restrictive controls and those favoring instead absolute freedom of CT activity are evenly divided with a substantial number of public citizens either unaware, agnostic or disinterested in the question itself. There is no likelihood CT will be diverted, halted or subject to rigorous controls and restrictions in 2023. However as further innovations, discoveries and breakthroughs happen over the next seven years that calculus of public sentiment may shift considerably. It remains unclear which aspects of CT itself, or changing public sentiment, will provide the leverage needed to trigger wider consensus on the virtues and risks of CT activity in an open-ended global pursuit of that enterprise. CT will continue to grow and evolve along with the risks it inherently contains.

In effect, whether we like it or not, plan for it or not, attempt to halt it or not—it will happen. Absent ethical or foundational guardrails to delay it, or imposing operational constraints on it, the CTC will dominate and govern the end of this decade. As we painfully learned from the runaway Gain of Function [GOF] snafu with COVID science cannot restrain itself. CT activity will widen in scope, effects and consequences.

“

Various cutting edge dual use technologies will merge inevitably by the year 2030. This will lead to what I call the—Convergent Technology Cataclysm—CTC.

Whether it leads to an unhappy ending is anyone’s guess”.

DR. ROBERT McCREIGHT

is a distinguished national security expert and former U.S. Army Special Ops officer. He currently teaches at the graduate level, conducts research on forwardthinking defense topics, and offers consultation on foreign policy, intelligence, and global security issues. His insights on these subjects have been published in various esteemed professional journals.

Disclaimer: All views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

This article, has been republished with permission from the author.

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CHAINING THE FUTURE

DECODING BLOCKCHAIN’S TRANSFORMATIVE POWER

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Blockchain technology has emerged as a disruptive force in modern transactions, promising increased efficiency, transparency, and security.

However, as with any transformative technology, there are nuanced risks and benefits that need to be explored in depth.

Introduction As we say yes to digital asset innovation, it is

important to first take a dive into the risks and benefits of utilizing blockchain technology in transactions. To this end, this article will aim to examine: 1) emerging regulatory risks surrounding virtual asset trading platforms (“VATPs”); 2) the evolving landscape of blockchain-based cybercrime; and 3) the potential of block-chain as a tool for dispute resolution.

"Yes to Digital Asset Innovation, No to Cryptocurrency Speculation…"

- Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore

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Emerging Regulatory Risks As Hong Kong moves towards realizing the objective of turning the city from Asia’s premier financial centre into Asia’s premier virtual assets hub in satisfaction of the Central Government’s grand 14th 5 year plan, this new environment sees VATPs in Hong Kong currently trade "Blue Chip Cryptos" as nonsecurity products, with the responsibility of ensuring compliance falling on the platform's responsible officer (“RO”).

Hong Kong’s receptive and optimistic attitude towards virtual assets is of course a stark contrast to recent regulatory actions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) which is attempting to classify certain blue chips as security products have raised concerns and highlighted the need for clarity.

To mitigate the regulatory risks, it is essential to define what constitutes blue chip crypto and establish clear guidelines for their classification.

This includes considering factors such as the underlying characteristics of the digital asset, its economic function, and the rights conferred to investors.

After all, clear justification as to how it has came to such conclusion will undoubtedly enable Hong Kong to truly take control of the narrative as it takes the lead as Asia’s premier virtual assets hub, with contemporary regulators wishing to assert their views facing an uphill battle (e.g., having to articulate how they came to a different conclusion and having to convince their Courts why their views prevail).

As blockchain technology transcends geographical boundaries, it is imperative for regulatory bodies to establish international cooperation and harmonize standards. Hong Kong, as an international financial hub, should therefore actively engage in cross-border collaboration to address regulatory risks associated with blockchain technology.

This includes sharing best practices, fostering information exchange, and participating in global judicial and regulatory initiatives to ensure consistent and effective legal and regulatory aspects of virtual assets and blockchain-based transactions.

about new economic opportunities for businesses, so too does it bring about new criminal opportunities for bad actors.

While blockchain technology offers enhanced security features, it is not impervious to cyber threats. To comprehensively address such emerging risks, it is essential to understand the evolving landscape of blockchain-based cybercrime.

While it should be noted and stressed that wire fraud predominantly occurs within traditional banking networks, blockchain-based cybercrime presents unique challenges and usually dominate headlines when it occurs due to its novelty.

Emerging Blockchain-Based Cybercrime Next, we shall touch upon how different jurisdictions should tackle emerging blockchainbased cybercrime. Just as emerging technologies bring

These may include unauthorized access to private keys, exploitability of smart contracts, and vulnerabilities in decentralized applications (“DApps”). Hong Kong should collaborate with cybersecurity experts, law enforcement agencies, and industry stakeholders to identify and

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mitigate blockchain-specific cyber risks effectively.

To combat blockchain-based cybercrime effectively, robust cybersecurity measures need to be implemented. This includes ensuring secure key management practices, conducting regular audits of smart contracts and DApps, and promoting cybersecurity awareness and education among users.

With the emergence of Security Token Offerings in 2023, it is therefore imperative for standards to be upheld for all such new projects. Gone are the days when a single legal opinion can suffice for launch of a new endeavour. Instead, issuers should ensure that all projects are accompanied by the following as the minimum standard: (1) legal opinion and legal audit to ensure that all tokens represent legal and binding commercial transaction (e.g., not an air token); (2) regulatory opinion and regulatory audit to ensure

that all such products are compliant with all regulatory requirements satisfied; and (3) smart contract audit.

Additionally, the establishment of cybersecurity standards and certifications specific to blockchain technology can help enhance the resilience of the ecosystem. By fostering a culture of cybersecurity and proactive risk management, Hong Kong can mitigate the potential risks associated with blockchain-based cybercrime.

Blockchain as a Tool for Dispute Resolution Blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize dispute resolution processes by enhancing efficiency and trustworthiness. Smart contracts executed on the blockchain can automate

contractual obligations, streamline enforcement, and reduce the need for intermediaries.

Immutable and transparent records on the blockchain can provide an unalterable evidence trail, enhancing the integrity

and credibility of dispute resolution proceedings. Hong Kong should explore the integration of blockchain technology into its legal framework, ensuring compatibility with existing laws while leveraging the benefits of

decentralized and transparent dispute resolution mechanisms.

Implementing blockchainbased dispute resolution mechanisms requires careful consideration of legal frameworks and jurisdictional complexities. Challenges such as cross-border enforcement, privacy protection, and the recognition of blockchainbased evidence need to be addressed.

The integration of smart contracts into the arbitration process, parties can achieve a significant advancement in the efficiency and enforceability of arbitral awards, making arbitration a true alternative to court litigation. By utilizing smart contracts deployed on a blockchain platform, the issuance and execution of the arbitral award can be seamlessly automated and recorded in a transparent and immutable manner. This eliminates the traditional reliance on courts for the enforcement of arbitral awards, as the self-executing nature of smart contracts ensures that the agreed-upon terms and

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obligations are automatically enforced without the need for further judicial intervention.

As a result, the parties can bypass the time-consuming and potentially costly process of going through the courts to enforce the arbitral award, thereby streamlining the dispute resolution process and providing a more efficient and satisfactory resolution for all parties involved.

The utilization of smart contract-enabled arbitral awards also enhances the finality and certainty of the dispute resolution process. By leveraging blockchain technology, the recorded smart contract-based award becomes a tamper-proof and easily verifiable record of the decision.

This transparency and immutability instill a high level of trust and confidence in the enforceability of the award, eliminating the need for parties to seek court intervention to secure compliance.

The self-executing nature of smart contracts ensures that the award is promptly enforced according to its terms, reducing the potential for further disputes or delays arising from non-compliance. As a result, parties can have greater confidence in the efficacy of the arbitration process, knowing that the smart contract-enabled arbitral award provides a binding and enforceable resolution that effectively replaces the need for court enforcement, making arbitration a truly standalone and efficient alternative to traditional court litigation. It is therefore propositioned that the use of blockchain and smart contract technologies in dispute resolution will be the final step to achieving the objectives set out by the Civil Justice Reform (“CJR”).

Hong Kong can play a leading role in shaping international legal standards for blockchainbased dispute resolution by actively engaging with stakeholders, conducting thorough legal research, and proposing innovative solutions.

can also bolster Hong Kong's position as a preferred destination for international dispute resolution.

Conclusion All in all, the utilization of blockchain technology in modern transactions presents both risks and benefits that demand a comprehensive analysis. Hong Kong, as a global financial center, must navigate the emerging regulatory risks associated with virtual asset trading platforms and actively engage in global regulatory cooperation. Mitigating blockchain-based cybercrime requires a robust cybersecurity framework tailored to the unique challenges posed by the technology.

Furthermore, by embracing blockchain as a tool for dispute resolution, Hong Kong can enhance efficiency and trust in its legal system while addressing the legal and jurisdictional complexities that arise.

Through proactive measures and strategic initiatives, Hong Kong can position itself as a leader in harnessing the transformative potential of blockchain technology while effectively managing the associated risks.

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WEB1

WEB2

WEB3

WEB4

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Administrative Region have both expressed their strong support for blockchain-enabled economies as part of their long-term Introduction development Love it or hate it, strategies.

Blockchain techWith the PRC's 14th nology continues to Five-Year Plan revolutionize various emphasizing the industries, and its promotion of smart potential is being cities and the recognized by integration of governments worldblockchain technolwide. In particular, the ogy, the legal landPeople's Republic of scape surrounding China (“PRC”) and the blockchain, tokenizaHong Kong Special tion, and Web3 is experiencing

significant developments. To this end, Hong Kong remains the flagship city within China pushing the envelope when it comes to Blockchain, Tokenization and Web3 (“BT3”) adoption.

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In 1878, Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer of the British Post Office once boldly proclaimed that: “This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication… The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”

Then in 2023 as if déjà vu, Gery Gensler, chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, boldly proclaimed: “We Don’t Need More Digital Currency… We already have… currency. It’s called the U.S. dollar… It’s called the euro or it’s called the yen…”

This article will therefore endeavour to examine the PRC and Hong Kong’s perspectives on blockchain-enabled economies, explore the latest developments in this field, and delve into Hong Kong's groundbreaking achievement within the BT3 space including the first Digital Ownership Token (“DOT”) standard Security Token Offering (STO) in 2023 after the Government of Hong Kong SAR’s announcement of its pivot into the BT3 economy.

PRC’s and Hong Kong’s Pivot to Blockchain-Enabled Economies Recognizing the transformative and economical potential of blockchain, smart contracts and tokenization technologies and their respective role in realizing the national goal at rolling out Asia’s first smart city concepts, both the PRC and Hong Kong governments have outlined their visions for blockchainenabled economies.

The PRC's 14th Five-Year Plan lays emphasis on the development of smart cities and the integration of blockchain technology to drive innovation, enhance efficiency, and foster economic growth.

This strategic focus highlights

the government's commitment to leveraging blockchain's potential in various sectors, including finance, governance, supply chain, and much more.

The emphasis also highlights the Central Government’s goal

in transforming China’s manufacturing economy to one that is of tech and service.

To this end, the Central Government have envisioned Hong Kong as an international innovation and technology hub.

It has implemented measures to foster the growth of Web3, blockchain assets, and smart city initiatives. These initiatives aim to harness Hong Kong’s unique ability as a premier financial centre to attract investments, promote technological advancements, and position Hong Kong as a leading global player in the blockchain space.

The emphasis is therefore an emphasis on pivoting of utilizing technology to monetize previously unmonetized aspects of Hong Kong’s financial economy through the promotion of use of BT3 in its economy.

“Crypto here to stay, must be regulated…”

- Christopher Hui, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury

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Dawn of Virtual Asset Trading Platform Regulations in Hong Kong 2023 has been a year of crypto infrastructure in Hong Kong. To unlock blockchain-enabled economies, it is important to understand the regulatory perimeter of virtual asset services in Hong Kong. Since 1 June 2023, the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) has brought the virtual asset space under its regulatory oversight with the passage of amendments to the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing Ordinance (Cap. 615) (“AMLO”).

The goal of the amendments was to: “…capture all the dimensions of the public’s interface with virtual assets so that investors are protected, and also to address the prudential risks to financial institutions…”

In this connection, the SFC in Hong Kong has the authority to grant licenses for engaging in activities related to virtual assets.

However, not all virtual asset services require a license from the SFC. The provision of virtual asset services will only trigger the licensing requirement when it involves activities such as the exchange between virtual assets and fiat currencies, exchange between different virtual assets, transfer of virtual assets on behalf of another person, custodian wallet provider services, and participation in financial services related to the offer or sale of virtual assets.

As Ms. Julia Leung, the Deputy Chief Executive of the SFC (as she then was), pointed out in her speech on “Embracing Innovation, Regulation and the Future of Finance Keynote address at Hong Kong FinTech Week 2022” dated 22 October 2022:

“Our preliminary view is that tokenised securities, as digital representations of traditional securities on a blockchain, should be treated in a similar way as existing financial instruments. In substance, they have similar terms, features and risks as traditional securities, so it does not seem appropriate to classify them as “complex products” merely because they are issued or traded on a blockchain…

Under this approach, a tokenised plain-vanilla bond would be classified as a “non-complex product”, and therefore the firms distributing it would be subject only to the existing requirements for the distribution of conventional securities, consistent with our “same business, same risk, same rules” approach.”

As such, it is pertinent to note that analysis is to be taken into account as to how a technology is being deployed. Where a technology is being deployed to be nothing more than being a documentation tool, then it ought to reason that it will not automatically trigger virtual asset related regulation, but instead, existing rule relevant to the underlying transaction will apply.

It also stands to be noted that currently, the virtual asset regulation in Hong Kong

primarily focuses on the operation of a centralized virtual asset trading platform (“VATP”). However, the regulatory landscape may evolve, and it is crucial for businesses involved in virtual asset services to stay updated on the regulatory requirements set by the SFC. Introducing Digital Ownership Token, the Next Generation Documentation Tool Digital ownership tokens (DOTs) are emerging as a

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groundbreaking solution to the challenges posed by nonfungible tokens (NFTs) in the realm of property law. With the potential to reshape the future of documentation, DOTs utilize blockchain and NFT technology to embed legally binding ownership documentation and ensure the secure transfer of assets.

such as sale and purchase agreements, transfer deeds, and independent valuation reports, DOTs enable buyers to ascertain the true value and underlying assets they are acquiring. This addresses the previous limitations of NFTs,

For some time now, the PRC government have emphasized that it is keenly aware of the dangers posed by blank tokens (tokens which in reality have no legal documentation within it and are merely synthetic products – also known as air tokens). DOT solve this concern by imposing standards whereby tokens that wishes to be validly issued must represent objects of value and encapsulate relevant legal rights that it purports to represent.

Unlike traditional NFTs, which often lack legal rights conveyed by smart contracts, DOTs provide clarity and transparency to purchasers. By incorporating a unique identifier and accompanying legal documents,

where value fluctuation and uncertainty were pervasive due to the absence of a reliable basis for assessing fair value.

Moreover, DOTs offer the benefits of seamless and

paperless property transactions.

By digitizing assets and facilitating secondary trades through DOTs, the legal profession can achieve both commercial goals of quick transactions and sustainability objectives This transformative approach streamlines the process, eliminating the need for timeconsuming paper transactions and enabling instantaneous transfers of ownership. This in turn achieve the Central Government’s overarching objective to promote market activity that paper based institutions are unable to deliver.

As the next generation documentation tool, DOTs have the potential to revolutionize property law by providing a secure and transparent framework for ownership rights.

With their ability to embed legal contracts, clarify ownership terms, and facilitate efficient transactions, DOTs pave the way for a future where property rights are seamlessly transferred and protected in the digital realm.

Milestone: Hong Kong's First DOT Standard STO in 2023 Hong Kong achieved a significant milestone in its blockchain journey by successfully conducting its first Digital Ownership Token (DOT) standard Security Token Offering (STO) in 2023. The STO, marked a pivotal moment for the adoption of blockchain technology in the financial sector.

The DOT standard STO introduced greater efficiency, security, and transparency for bondholders by fully tokenizing the bonds, eliminating the need for third-party custodianship. This pioneering approach allowed investors to directly hold and control their securities, eliminating complex trust structures prevalent in earlier STO projects.

The successful completion of the DOT standard STO in Hong Kong exemplifies the region's commitment to embracing blockchain technology and its potential to revolutionize

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traditional financial systems. It sets a precedent for future STO projects and positions Hong Kong as a leading global hub for blockchain-based financial innovations.

Conclusion The PRC and HKSAR governments' recognition of blockchain's potential has paved the way for the development of blockchainenabled economies. The legal landscape surrounding blockchain, tokenization, and Web3 is evolving rapidly, with governments and industry stakeholders working together to establish robust frameworks and facilitate innovation.

Hong Kong's first DOT standard STO represents a significant milestone in this journey, showcasing the region's commitment to embracing blockchain technology and its potential to reshape the financial landscape.

Furthermore, understanding the regulatory perimeter of virtual asset services in Hong Kong, as outlined in the VATP regulation, is essential for businesses operating in the virtual asset space to ensure compliance with the licensing requirements set by the Securities and Futures Commission.

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JOSHUA CHU

Before becoming a lawyer, Joshua worked in the healthcare industry serving as the IT department head at a private hospital as well as overseeing their procurement operations. Since embarking upon his legal career, Joshua has LinkedIn: conducted a number of novel https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh cases (many of which resulted in ua-kiu-wah-chu/ landmark decisions). These included Hong Kong’s first crypto Joshua Chu is a qualified lawyer litigation in 2015, Hong Kong’s practicing in Hong Kong. Joshua is first court order for service via currently serving as the Group data room in 2020, and Hong Chief Risk Officer at Kong’s first DOT standard STO in Coinllectibles , Marvion and 2023.

XBE (the first publicly traded blockchain DOT technology Joshua is Co-Chair of The Hong conglomerate in the US).

Kong Web3 Association.

Group Chief Risk Officer at Coinllectibles , Marvion and XBE, Senior Consultant at Prosynergy, of Counsel at Hauzen LLP.

Aside from his role as Group CRO, Education: Joshua is also currently a Senior City University of Hong Kong Consultant at Prosynergy (a Post Graduate Certificate in Laws regulatory consulting firm founded and led by ex-SFC City University of Hong Kong Regulators) and Of Counsel with Juris Doctor (Distinction) Hauzen LLP in his role as a private practice lawyer, being part of the Blockchain, Tokenization and Web3 (“BT3”) Practice Group.

Introduction In today’s interconnected world, information and ideas can spread rapidly across borders and cultures, shaping opinions and behaviours in ways that can have profound impacts on individuals, organizations, and even nations.

As a result, a new type of conflict has emerged, one that seeks to shape and control the perceptions and actions of others through the use of information and persuasion. This type of conflict, known as influence warfare, is rapidly becoming a key aspect of modern geopolitical competition.

Influence warfare is often waged through digital channels, such as social media platforms and messaging apps. This allows for highly targeted and sophisticated campaigns that can reach large numbers of people with ease, making it an attractive option for governments, organizations, and individuals looking to sway public opinion and advance their interests. The influence campaigns can be aimed at domestic or foreign audiences, and they often involve the use of misleading or false information, propaganda, and other forms of manipulation.

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Influence warfare operations use psychological, informational, and economic measures to affect an adversary's decision-making and behaviour. This type of warfare aims to shape the perceptions, attitudes, and beliefs of target populations to achieve a desired outcome. Influence warfare operations can involve various tactics such as propaganda, disinformation, cyberattacks, and economic coercion, among others.

The ultimate goal of these operations is to gain a strategic advantage by manipulating the information environment and affecting the opponent's behaviour.

The rise of influence warfare has led to growing concerns about the impact it is having on democracy, free speech, and stability. In many countries, fake news and misinformation have been used to undermine public trust in government institutions, elections, and the media, creating a dangerous situation where truth and falsehood are indistinguishable. This can lead to a loss of confidence in democratic institutions, increased polarization, and heightened tensions that can ultimately undermine stability and peace.

To mitigate the risks posed by influence warfare, it is important for individuals, organizations, and governments to take a proactive The goal of influence warfare is to approach to understanding and combating these campaigns. This create a narrative that is may involve investing in favourable to the influencer, and technology and resources to that can be used to shape public detect and track influence opinion, influence political campaigns, developing decisions, and drive behaviour. educational programs to help The most successful influence people identify and resist campaigns often exploit existing manipulation, and promoting social, political, or economic media literacy and critical tensions to sow division and thinking skills to help people confusion, making it more difficult for people to discern the make informed decisions. truth and make informed decisions.

The Evolution of Influence Warfare

World War-I: The Birth of Propaganda

Influence warfare, also known as information warfare, has a rich and intriguing history that spans across centuries. It has evolved from rudimentary tactics employed by ancient civilizations to the sophisticated and technologically-driven strategies of the digital age. Understanding the evolution of influence warfare is essential in comprehending its current significance and the challenges it poses in the modern world.

The early 20th century saw a transformation in influence warfare with the emergence of modern propaganda. World War-I marked the widespread use of propaganda posters, pamphlets, and newspapers to sway public opinion and garner support for the war effort. Governments and militaries realized the power of persuasive messaging and imagery in shaping the perceptions of both their own citizens and those of their enemies.

Ancient Origins: Psychological Manipulation on the Battlefield The roots of influence warfare can be traced back to ancient civilizations, where military leaders recognized the value of psychological tactics in gaining an advantage on the battlefield.

From using deception to lull enemies into a false sense of security to spreading rumours and myths to instill fear, early influence warfare focused on manipulating the minds of adversaries and their civilian populations.

World War II: The Era of Psychological Operations Building upon the lessons of World War-I, World War-II witnessed the development of psychological operations (PSYOPs) as a distinct component of influence warfare.

PSYOPs involved the dissemination of carefully crafted messages, radio broadcasts, and leaflets to influence the psychological state of enemy

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forces and civilians. These operations aimed to create doubt, confusion, and demoralization among the enemy ranks, disrupting their ability to resist effectively.

The Cold War: Ideological Warfare The ideological struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War further elevated influence warfare to a global stage. Both superpowers engaged in intense information warfare to promote their political systems, gain support from other nations, and undermine each other's credibility. The use of disinformation and covert operations became prevalent tactics in the battle for hearts and minds around the world.

The Digital Age: Social Media and the Internet The advent of the internet and social media platforms in the late 20th century revolutionized influence warfare. The digital age provided new avenues for the rapid dissemination of information, making it possible to

reach global audiences almost instantaneously. Social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube became fertile grounds for influence campaigns, enabling the targeted spread of propaganda, disinformation, and conspiracy theories.

Hybrid Warfare: Expanding the Players With the rise of non-state actors and hybrid warfare, influence warfare expanded beyond the confines of traditional nationstate actors. Terrorist organizations and extremist groups began leveraging the internet and social media to recruit members, spread extremist ideologies, and incite violence. These actors demonstrated that influence warfare could be wielded by nonstate entities, challenging the conventional understanding of information warfare.

Challenge of Digital Literacy and Deepfakes As technology continues to advance, influence warfare faces new challenges.

Deepfake technology, driven by artificial intelligence, enables the creation of hyperrealistic fake videos and audio, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish between truth and manipulation. Digital literacy and critical thinking have become paramount in countering the effects of influence warfare and ensuring individuals can discern credible information from deceptive content.

“Connected and Empowered: Unleashing the Potential of Social Media and the Internet” The evolution of influence warfare reflects the timeless pursuit of gaining an advantage through the manipulation of information and perceptions.

From ancient civilizations to the modern digital age, the methods have evolved and become more sophisticated, presenting new challenges for individuals, governments, and societies.

Acknowledging this historical context allows us to develop robust strategies to guard against the deceptive influence of information warfare in the present and the future.

Examples of influence warfare include: * Russian interference in the 2016 US Presidential election: The Russian government used social media manipulation, hacking, and other means to interfere in the 2016 US Presidential election, spreading disinformation and attempting to influence the outcome. * Chinese influence operations in Australia: China has been accused of using a variety of influence operations, including bribery and blackmail, to sway Australian political leaders and shape public opinion in its favour. “ * Iranian disinformation campaign: Iran has been accused of using social media manipulation and other influence operations to spread disinformation and sow discord in the West, particularly in the United States and Europe.

*Russian influence in Ukraine: Russia has been accused of using a combination of propaganda, hacking, and other influence operations to destabilize Ukraine and undermine the Ukrainian government.

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Psychological warfare, a key aspect of influence warfare, is a strategic approach that aims to manipulate the thoughts, emotions, and behaviors of individuals and groups. It leverages psychological principles to influence perceptions and shape attitudes, ultimately achieving specific objectives. This form of warfare operates on the belief that the mind can be a potent battlefield, and the power of persuasion can be a formidable weapon.

Understanding Psychological Warfare Psychological warfare exploits the vulnerabilities and cognitive biases that are inherent in human psychology. It targets individuals' emotions, fears, desires, and beliefs, seeking to alter their perceptions of reality and influence their decision-making processes. By controlling the information that people receive and the way it is presented, psychological warfare seeks to gain an advantage over opponents without necessarily resorting to physical force.

Tactics of Psychological Warfare Various tactics are psychological warfare to outcomes. These include: * Propaganda: The dissemination of information, often biased or misleading, to shape public opinion and advance specific agendas. Propaganda is designed to evoke emotional responses and create a favorable view of one's own cause while demonizing the adversary. * Deception: Spreading false information or creating illusions to mislead the enemy or create confusion among their ranks. “ Deception tactics aim to manipulate perceptions and prevent opponents from accurately assessing the situation. * Fearmongering: Creating and amplifying fear to weaken the morale and resolve of adversaries. By sowing fear, psychological warfare seeks to undermine confidence in one's abilities and goals.

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Disinformation: Spreading false or misleading information to discredit opponents or to manipulate the perceptions of target audiences. Disinformation campaigns can be particularly powerful in the digital age, where information travels rapidly and widely. * Demoralization: Employing psychological operations to lower the morale and combat effectiveness of enemy forces.

Demoralization tactics seek to break the psychological will of opponents and weaken their ability to resist. * Targeted Messaging: Crafting messages tailored to specific audiences to evoke emotional responses or align with preexisting beliefs. This tactic is particularly effective in influencing individuals who already have certain predispositions or inclinations.

outcomes of political processes and conflicts. When effectively executed, psychological warfare can erode trust in institutions, create social divisions, and undermine the cohesion of targeted communities.

Guarding Against Psychological Warfare Recognizing the tactics employed in psychological warfare is crucial in guarding against its influence.

Individuals can cultivate critical thinking skills to discern propaganda and disinformation. Media literacy and fact-checking play a vital role in countering the impact of deceptive information.

Additionally, promoting “ transparency and open dialogue can help combat the spread of misinformation and promote a more informed society.

Psychological warfare, as a form of influence warfare, remains a potent tool in the modern world.

Impact of Psychological Warfare By understanding its tactics and impact, individuals and societies can better guard against its Psychological warfare can have manipulative efforts. As profound effects on individuals information continues to shape and societies. It can sway public the landscape of global affairs, opinion, instigate fear, incite recognizing the power of violence, and even influence the

Psychological warfare, as a form of influence warfare, remains a potent tool in the modern world. By understanding its tactics and impact, individuals and societies can better guard against its manipulative efforts. As information continues to shape the landscape of global affairs, recognizing the power of psychological warfare is essential in preserving the integrity of truth and maintaining informed decision-making processes.

“From keystrokes to chaos, influence warfare emerges”

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In the digital age, social media has emerged as a powerful battleground for influence warfare. With billions of users worldwide, platforms like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube have become fertile grounds for shaping public opinion, spreading propaganda, and waging information wars.

Social media has evolved into a contested space for various actors seeking to manipulate minds and achieve their strategic objectives.

Rise of Social Media The advent of social media brought unprecedented connectivity and communication opportunities. Initially designed to connect people and facilitate the sharing of personal experiences, social media platforms quickly became avenues for political discussions and information dissemination. As user numbers soared, governments, political organizations, and other actors recognized the potential of social media as a tool for influencing narratives and perceptions.

Social Media as an Amplifier of Information One of the key attributes of social media is its ability to amplify information rapidly. A single post, image, or video can go viral within minutes, reaching millions of users across the globe. This feature has been harnessed by various actors, including statesponsored entities, political campaigns, and extremist groups, to spread their messages, shape narratives, and influence public discourse.

Influence Warfare on Social Media Influence warfare on social media takes many forms, including: “ * Disinformation Campaigns: Malicious actors use social media to spread false or misleading information to deceive and manipulate public opinion.

Disinformation campaigns aim to create confusion, sow discord, and undermine trust in reputable sources of information. * Propaganda and Narratives: State actors and political groups employ social media to promote

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their agendas and influence how events are perceived. They craft narratives that align with their interests and use targeted messaging to sway specific demographics. * Trolling and Harassment: Troll armies, organized groups of individuals, often coordinated by state actors, engage in aggressive online behavior to harass opponents, suppress dissent, and disrupt social media conversations. * Fake Accounts and Bots: Automated bots and fake accounts are deployed to artificially boost social media engagement, giving the illusion of widespread support for certain views or individuals. * Echo Chambers: Social media algorithms often create echo chambers, where users are exposed to information that reinforces their existing beliefs and filters out opposing viewpoints. This can deepen divisions within society and hinder constructive dialogue.

Weaponization of Social Media

The weaponization of social media lies in its potential to influence public perception and behaviour, both domestically and internationally. Nation-states have recognized this power and now view social media as an essential component of their influence warfare strategies. The impact of weaponized social media was notably evident in events like the 2016 United States presidential election, where foreign actors exploited social media platforms to spread disinformation and sow discord.

Challenges and Responses Addressing influence warfare on social media poses significant challenges.

The borderless nature “ of the internet and the speed at which information spreads make it difficult to regulate or control malicious actors effectively.

Striking a balance between protecting free speech and countering disinformation remains a delicate task. To respond to these challenges, social media companies have implemented measures to identify and remove fake accounts, bots, and disinformation.

Additionally, governments and civil society organizations have invested in media literacy programs to equip individuals with the skills to critically evaluate information.

Social media has evolved into a battleground for influence warfare, where various actors seek to manipulate minds and shape narratives to achieve their objectives. As the digital landscape continues to evolve, staying vigilant against the weaponization of social media and promoting media literacy are crucial steps in safeguarding the integrity of information and protecting the democratic principles that underpin modern societies.

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In today's fast-paced and interconnected world, the spread of fake news and disinformation has become a concerning and prevalent issue. Misleading information, fabricated stories, and intentionally false content circulate through various media channels, creating confusion, shaping perceptions, and undermining trust in credible sources. We deep dive into the realm of fake news and disinformation, exploring their impact, the driving forces behind them, and the potential ways to combat this troubling trend.

Understanding Fake News and Disinformation

Causes and Motivations Several factors contribute to the propagation of fake news and disinformation: * Sensationalism and Clickbait: Publishers may prioritize catchy headlines and sensational stories to attract more clicks and engagement, increasing their revenue through advertising. * Political Influence: Malicious actors, including state-sponsored entities, may use fake news to sway public opinion, influence elections, and destabilize rival nations.

* Social Divisions: Fake news can “ Fake news refers to misleading or be used to exacerbate existing social divisions, deepening false information presented as societal conflicts and polarizing factual news. It can range from communities. partially accurate content to completely fabricated stories. * Prank Culture: In some cases, Disinformation, on the other spreading false information is hand, involves the deliberate driven by mischievous intent, with dissemination of false information with the intention to deceive, individuals seeking to trick or deceive others for amusement. manipulate opinions, or advance specific agendas. Both fake news and disinformation thrive on sensationalism and the rapid spread facilitated by digital platforms.

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Impact of Disinformation Fake News and Disinformation

Combatting Disinformation Fake News and Disinformation

The consequences of the spread of fake news and disinformation are far-reaching:

Combating the spread of fake news and disinformation requires a multifaceted approach involving various stakeholders:

* Misleading the Public: False information can mislead the public, distorting their understanding of events, issues, and even scientific facts. * Erosion of Trust: The prevalence of fake news undermines trust in traditional media sources, reliable journalism, and established institutions.

Social Unrest and Violence: Misinformation can contribute to social unrest, incite violence, and lead to real-world consequences, as witnessed in instances of mob attacks based on rumours. * Threat to Democracy: Manipulative information campaigns can interfere with democratic processes, undermining the integrity of elections and decision-making.

* Media Literacy: Promoting media literacy is essential to empower individuals to critically evaluate information and identify credible sources. * Fact-Checking: Fact-checking organizations play a vital role in verifying the accuracy of news stories and debunking false claims. * Responsible Journalism: News “ organizations must uphold rigorous journalistic standards, ensuring accuracy, impartiality, and thorough verification of facts. * Tech Industry Responsibility: Social media platforms and technology companies should implement measures to detect and reduce the dissemination of false information through algorithms and content moderation.

* Public Awareness: Governments and civil society organizations can launch public awareness campaigns to educate the public about the risks of fake news and disinformation.

Fake news and disinformation pose significant challenges to the information ecosystem and public discourse. As information spreads rapidly through digital platforms, combating this problem demands collective efforts from individuals, media, tech companies, and governments. By promoting media literacy, ensuring responsible journalism, and fostering a more informed and discerning public, society can navigate the complex landscape of information and combat the spread of deception effectively.

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Throughout history, propaganda has been a powerful and influential tool used by various entities to shape public opinion, manipulate perceptions, and advance specific agendas. From ancient civilizations to modern nation-states, propaganda has played a significant role in shaping the beliefs and actions of societies. Historical evolution of propaganda, its techniques, and its impact on societies and individuals is enunciated in subsequent paragraphs.

Origins of Propaganda The term "propaganda" finds its roots in the Latin word "propagare," which means "to propagate" or "to spread." While the concept of influencing public opinion through communication predates the term itself, the systematic use of propaganda became more pronounced during times of political and ideological upheaval.

consolidate power and rally support from their subjects. The spread of information through various means, such as storytelling, songs, and inscriptions, played a crucial role in shaping the collective consciousness.

Propaganda in Warfare and Politics In times of war, propaganda has been a potent weapon to boost morale, demonize the enemy, and garner support for military efforts. During World War I and World War II, governments on all sides used propaganda extensively to motivate their populations, recruit soldiers, and “ justify their actions. Powerful images, slogans, and narratives were crafted to evoke strong emotions and foster a sense of national unity.

Propaganda has also been a key component of political campaigns. Political leaders and parties use persuasive One of the earliest examples of propaganda can be traced back to communication to win elections, ancient civilizations, where rulers discredit opponents, and rally support from their constituents. and religious leaders used art, symbols, and myths to

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The advent of mass media, such as newspapers, radio, television, and now the internet, has amplified the reach and impact of political propaganda.

Techniques of Propaganda Propaganda employs various behaviour: * Emotional Appeal: Propaganda often appeals to emotions rather than reason, seeking to evoke fear, anger, pride, or empathy to sway public opinion. * Simplification and Stereotyping: Complex issues are distilled into simplistic narratives, and certain groups may be stereotyped to create a clear "us versus them" dynamic. * Repetition: Messages are repeated consistently to reinforce beliefs and create a sense of familiarity. * Censorship and Information Control: In some cases, controlling access to information or censoring opposing viewpoints can bolster the effectiveness of propaganda.

Bandwagon Effect: Propaganda may create an illusion of widespread support for a particular idea or cause, encouraging individuals to align with the perceived majority.

Impact on Societies and Individuals Propaganda can have profound effects on both societies and individuals: Shaping Beliefs and Values: Propaganda can influence what people believe to be true, leading to the acceptance of certain ideologies or narratives.

Mobilization and Compliance: Effective propaganda can “ mobilize populations to support a cause, whether it is military efforts or political campaigns.

Polarization and Division: Propaganda that perpetuates stereotypes and fosters a sense of hostility toward certain groups can deepen social divisions.

Manipulation and Control: In extreme cases, propaganda can be used to manipulate individuals, restrict their freedoms, and control their actions.

Propaganda has a long and significant history as a potent tool for influencing public opinion and shaping the course of history. As societies continue to grapple with the ethical implications of propaganda, it remains essential to promote critical thinking, media literacy, and open dialogue. By fostering a well-informed and discerning public, societies can guard against the potential dangers of propaganda and safeguard democratic values and individual freedoms.

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In the digital age, espionage has taken on a new form—cyber espionage. As technology advances, so do the tactics employed by nation-states, criminals, and other malicious actors to gather sensitive information, infiltrate organizations, and steal valuable secrets. World of cyber espionage, its methods, motivations, and the significant challenges it poses to national security and global stability are in elaborated.

Understanding Cyber Espionage Cyber espionage, also known as cyber spying, involves using sophisticated cyber tools and techniques to infiltrate computer networks, systems, and databases for the purpose of obtaining confidential information. Unlike traditional espionage, which often involved physical infiltration or human intelligence, cyber espionage relies on the anonymity and speed offered by the digital realm.

Methods and Techniques Cyber espionage employs a wide array of techniques to breach targets and extract valuable information: * Phishing Attacks: Malicious actors use deceptive emails or messages to trick individuals into revealing sensitive information or clicking on malicious links that can compromise their systems. * Malware: Espionage campaigns often utilize various types of malware, such as spyware and keyloggers, to gain unauthorized access and monitor activities without detection. “

* Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs): APTs are long-term, stealthy cyber-attacks conducted by well-funded and organized adversaries, targeting specific organizations or entities. * Zero-Day Exploits: Cyber attackers may exploit unknown vulnerabilities in software or hardware before developers can issue patches, gaining an advantage in infiltrating systems.

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* Social Engineering: Hackers use psychological manipulation to deceive individuals within the targeted organization into revealing sensitive information or providing access to critical systems.

* Intelligence Gathering: Governments and intelligence agencies conduct cyber espionage to acquire information on terrorist activities, potential security threats, and military capabilities.

Motivation and Targets

Impact on National Security

The motivations behind cyber espionage are diverse and often interconnected:

The consequences of successful cyber espionage can be severe:

* Political Gain: Nation-states may conduct cyber espionage to gain strategic advantage in diplomatic negotiations or gather intelligence on foreign governments. * Economic Espionage: Competing corporations or countries may target each other to steal trade secrets, research, and development data to gain a competitive edge. * Cyber Warfare Preparation: Cyber espionage can serve as a precursor to more destructive cyber-attacks, positioning malicious actors for future offensive actions.

* National Security Threats: Stolen intelligence can undermine a country's defense capabilities, compromise military strategies, and jeopardize the safety of its citizens. “

* Economic Damage: Theft of proprietary information and trade secrets can result in significant financial losses and undermine a nation's economic stability. * Diplomatic Tensions: Unveiling instances of cyber espionage can strain international relations and lead to diplomatic conflicts between nations.

* Loss of Trust: Incidents of cyber espionage erode public trust in government and institutions, raising concerns about data privacy and cybersecurity.

Countering Cyber Espionage Addressing cyber espionage requires a comprehensive approach: * Cybersecurity Measures: Organizations and governments must implement robust cybersecurity protocols, including network monitoring, encryption, and multi-factor authentication. * Threat Intelligence Sharing: Collaboration between private companies, governmental agencies, and international partners can enhance threat intelligence sharing and response capabilities. * International Cooperation: Establishing norms and agreements regarding cyber operations can promote responsible behaviour in cyberspace and deter malicious actors. * Continuous Vigilance: Given the rapidly evolving nature of cyber “ threats, continuous monitoring and updating of cybersecurity measures are essential.

Cyber espionage represents a significant and evolving threat to national security, economic stability, and individual privacy. As the digital landscape continues to advance, so too must our efforts to safeguard sensitive information and critical infrastructure. By fostering international cooperation, investing in robust cybersecurity practices, and raising public awareness about cyber threats, we can better protect ourselves against the ever-present dangers of cyber espionage.

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Conclusion Influence warfare has come a long way from its traditional roots to the complex and interconnected landscape of the digital age. As technology continues to advance, the future of influence warfare holds both promise and peril. The evolution of AI and deepfake technology presents new challenges in discerning truth from deception, while the automation of disinformation campaigns raises concerns about the manipulation of public opinion on an unprecedented scale.

Personalized influence targeting, the potential weaponization of IoT devices, and the looming threat of quantum computing all add further layers of complexity to the influence warfare landscape.

Moreover, the involvement of non-state actors and the fusion of influence operations with hybrid warfare underscore the need for comprehensive and proactive approaches to address the multifaceted challenges posed by influence warfare.

To navigate the future of influence warfare successfully, governments, tech companies, and civil “ society must collaborate closely, embracing technological solutions, strengthening cybersecurity measures, and promoting media literacy and critical thinking. International cooperation is essential in countering global disinformation networks and ensuring that influence operations do not undermine the foundations of democracy and trust in information.

As we forge ahead into an era where influence warfare plays an increasingly significant role in shaping public discourse, preserving the integrity of information and building resilience against manipulation become imperative. By staying vigilant, fostering ethical AI use, and upholding transparency in content dissemination, we can strive to protect the fabric of democracy and promote an informed, cohesive global society.

“

Influence warfare will continue to evolve, and so must our strategies to safeguard against its potential harms. Only by remaining steadfast in our commitment to truth, collaboration, and digital literacy can we navigate the complexities of the future and build a world where the power of influence is wielded responsibly and for the collective“ good.”

Colonel Inderjeet Singh Chief Cyber Officer

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COL (DR.) INDERJEET SINGH stands as a pillar in the

cybersecurity and blockchain realm, boasting an impressive three-decade-long journey of leadership, innovation, and influence. Singh possesses a repertoire of accolades, notably as the Chief Cyber Officer (CCO), Co-Founder of India Blockchain Forum, and recipient of the Eminent CIO Award 2023. His eloquence as a 2x TEDx Speaker, coupled with his representation to the UN Office at Geneva, underlines the global resonance of his insights.

commercial viability. He’s not only a security evangelist and analyst but also a distinguished freelance writer, recognized for his exemplary solution architecture and project management skills.

Col Singh epitomizes influential leadership, demonstrated through his keynote speeches and panel discussions at various technical sessions. His diverse array of skills encompasses analysis, decision-making, team building, planning, and organizing, all underpinned by a robust technical foundation. “

Exceptional strategic thinking and visionary abilities distinguish him, enabling the identification With a profound knowledge in cybersecurity and blockchain, Col and swift conversion of Singh has spearheaded strategic opportunities into successful initiatives and solutions across a business ventures. His analytical myriad of organizations, fortifying decision-making and penchant for technological innovation have their digital fortresses. Beyond positioned him as a trusted security, his vision extends to authority, intertwining credibility nurturing startups, entrepreand depth in every contribution. neurship development, and strategic consulting, showcasing a keen acumen in assessing technologies for

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INFLATION, AUTOMATION AND FRACTIONAL RESERVES

Contemplating the news from Russia introducing Islamic Banking possibly due to geopolitical turmoil and severe western sanctions, seeking alternatives in all aspects of life and business is always a good way to enrich ones perspective.

Our current global banking system which is based on Fractional Reserves is so entrenched that very few question other alternatives. I have much to share about this topic and delve into some alternative viewpoints as well what the Fractional Reserves system is or as other people coin the Printing Money from Thin Air System.

Fractional reserve banking is a financial system where banks retain a portion of the total deposits they receive from customers as reserves, lending out the remaining funds. This system operates under the assumption that, at any given time, most depositors will not withdraw all their deposited funds. Consequently, it enables banks to allocate a fraction of the deposited money for loans, thereby facilitating economic growth and expanding the money supply.

Basic Concept: When an individual deposits money into a bank, the bank is mandated to retain a fraction of that deposit as a reserve and can utilize the remainder for lending purposes. The reserve ratio is typically determined by central banks or other regulatory authorities.

Economic Implications: This system engenders the creation of money through the lending process. As banks extend loans, the funds from these loans are re-deposited within the banking system, enabling further loan disbursements and, consequently, more money creation. It serves as a fundamental instrument through which central banks can influence the money supply and, by extension, control monetary policy.

Risks and Criticisms: In the event that numerous depositors simultaneously demand the withdrawal of their deposits, triggering a bank run, the bank may face liquidity challenges in meeting these

demands, potentially leading to bank failures.

• Some critics contend that this system intrinsically fosters financial instability, given the interconnected nature of the banking system.

• It is important to note that many banking systems employ deposit insurance schemes to mitigate the risk of bank runs.

One of the most significant bank runs in history occurred in the United States during the Great Depression of 1929. In a time of financial instability, numerous investors chose to withdraw their funds, overwhelming the banks.

This led to a heightened state of panic, prompting even more individuals to withdraw their deposits, ultimately resulting in a multitude of bank failures.

Fractional Reserves and Inflation The relationship between the fractional reserve system and inflation is multifaceted, rooted in the mechanisms by which the banking system influences the money supply.

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Money Creation: In a fractional reserve system, banks generate money when they grant loans. When a bank extends a loan, it simultaneously creates a deposit for the borrower, thereby increasing the money supply.

As these funds circulate and are re-deposited into the banking system, the cycle repeats, creating a multiplier effect. The actual multiplier is contingent on the reserve requirement and other factors, with a higher reserve requirement resulting in a smaller multiplier.

Inflationary Pressure: If the increase in the money supply surpasses the growth in an economy's production capacity or the demand for money, it can lead to inflation. This occurs when an excess of money chases the same volume of goods and services.

Put simply, when the money supply expands at a rate faster than an economy's real output, the resulting surplus demand can escalate prices, triggering inflation.

Central Bank's Role: Central banks, cognizant of the connection between the money

supply and inflation, employ various tools to manage this dynamic. By setting reserve requirements, central banks can exert influence over the extent to which commercial banks create money. Additionally, central banks can utilize open market operations, discount rates, and other mechanisms to steer the money supply and, consequently, inflation.

Other Factors: While the fractional reserve system can contribute to inflation through money creation, it is pivotal to recognize that inflation can be influenced by an array of other factors, including supply shocks, demand-driven influences, built-in inflation, and expectations.

Interplay with Interest Rates: In a bid to curb inflation, central banks may opt to raise interest rates, elevating the cost of borrowing and rendering saving more attractive. This can curtail lending and borrowing, consequently decelerating the pace of money creation within a fractional reserve system.

Global Considerations: In today's interconnected global

economy, cross-border capital flows can impact domestic inflation. For instance, a country employing a fractional reserve system that garners significant foreign investment may observe an expansion in its money supply, potentially culminating in inflation, unless the central bank takes countermeasures.

While the fractional reserve system inherently permits the amplification of the money supply, a phenomenon that can exert inflationary pressures, the actual inflation rate remains a product of numerous factors, both domestic and global. The management of inflation is an art and science residing within the domain of monetary policy, necessitating central banks to continuously adjust their tools in response to evolving economic conditions. The insights of luminaries such as Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, John Maynard Keynes, and others provide a foundational understanding of these dynamics.

Automating the Rate of Inflation Being an avid proponent of all things automation I have a notion of automating the control of inflation and the fractional reserve system algorithmically in an ideal world which in self is intriguing and draws inspiration from various monetary and economic theories. Such automation would entail adjusting monetary parameters by use of algorithms in response to realtime economic data without direct human intervention. While some components can be automated, there are accompanying challenges. Real world case studies exist in the crypto world but that is for another time to explore.

Prospects for Automation: Rule-Based Monetary Policy: For instance, the Taylor Rule suggests that central banks should adjust interest rates based on deviations of inflation from its target and deviations of actual GDP from potential GDP. An automated system could potentially implement such adjustments.

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Cryptocurrencies and Algorithmic Stablecoins: Certain cryptocurrencies, notably algorithmic stablecoins, strive to stabilize their value through algorithms that adapt supply according to demand.

These systems can be perceived as a form of automated monetary policy, albeit operating outside the traditional fractional reserve banking system.

Data-Driven Decision Making: With advancements in big data and real-time economic indicators, it is conceivable that algorithms could adjust reserve requirements, interest rates, or other monetary tools based on actual economic data.

Challenges and Concerns: Complexity of Economic Systems: Economies are intricate systems characterized by numerous interacting variables. Capturing all nuances in an algorithm is challenging, and over-reliance on automation could lead to unforeseen consequences.

Political and Social Considerations: Monetary policy decisions often bear social and political consequences. Automating such decisions would necessitate a consensus on algorithmic objectives and might face resistance due to perceived loss of human control.

External Shocks: Economic shocks, such as natural disasters, pandemics, or geopolitical events, can hold significant economic ramifications. An automated system may struggle to respond adequately to unforeseen events of this nature.

Model Risk: Any form of automation would rely on economic models, all of which exhibit limitations. Over-reliance on a particular model can lead to systematic errors.

Ethical Considerations: Monetary policy affects livelihoods, wealth distribution, and economic well-being. Delegating these decisions to algorithms raises ethical concerns pertaining to accountability and transparency.

Given these challenges the key therefore lies in achieving a harmonious balance between automation and human oversight.

The dynamic interplay of various economic factors, coupled with the inherent unpredictability of economic systems, suggests that human judgment and discretion will remain pivotal components of effective monetary policy. Thus a hybrid system may be the ideal approach instead.

Alternatives to the Fractional Reserve System If I had a magic wand, I would create an alternative to the fractional reserve banking system. The Fractional Reserve system contradicts some of my personal held values. Specifically, I find it problematic or possibly even unethical when transactions are made without the underlying asset being readily available as a collateral. This gives the transacting parties perception that an asset exists when, in reality, it doesn't — and this occurs not just with one party but multiple parties.

The quest for an ideal alternative to the fractional reserve system

has long been a subject of debate among economists, policymakers, and financial experts. Over the years, several alternatives have emerged, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages.

Here are some prominent alternatives: Full Reserve Banking (or 100% Reserve Banking): In this system, banks are mandated to maintain 100% of deposits in reserve.

Consequently, they cannot create money through lending, as is the case in the fractional reserve system.

•Advantages: It significantly mitigates the risk of bank runs and reduces the need for deposit insurance. It may also lower the likelihood of banking crises and associated economic downturns.

•Disadvantages: It might restrict the availability of credit and potentially lead to higher borrowing costs, potentially affecting economic growth due to reduced lending capacity.

Narrow Banking: In a narrow banking system, banks retain all deposits in secure, liquid assets, such as government bonds, while other

financial institutions undertake lending and investment activities.

•Advantages: This approach insulates the payment system from risks associated with lending and investment.

•Disadvantages: The strict separation of various financial functions might result in reduced efficiency in financial intermediation.

Sovereign Money System (or Central Bank Digital Currencies CBDCs): Under this system, the central bank issues digital currency directly to the public, thereby diminishing the role of commercial banks in money creation.

•Advantages: It provides central banks with more direct control over the money supply and reduces the risks linked to bank runs.

•Disadvantages: It might concentrate excessive power in the hands of the central bank and lessen the involvement of the banking sector in the economy.

Mutual Fund Banking: Banks function as mutual funds and only issue shares against assets they possess.

These shares are redeemable on demand.

•Advantages: This approach may create a more transparent connection between bank assets and liabilities.

•Disadvantages: The system might be more susceptible to runs during economic downturns.

Determining the "most ideal" alternative hinges on the objectives and priorities of policymakers and the particular economic and social context of a region or nation. Each system has its merits and challenges, with key considerations encompassing financial stability, the efficiency of financial intermediation, the potential for economic growth, and the role of regulatory oversight.

In exploring the nuances of Fractional Reserve Banking, I want to make it evident that I am not providing or claiming a definitive solution or answer to the dilemma posed by Fractional Reserves with this article.

Journeying through its fundamental mechanics, the profound economic implications it brings, and the potential of

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integrating automation into its framework is food for thought.

Delving into the various alternatives that have been proposed over time and with the complexities of global financial systems, interwoven with technological advancements and ethical considerations is to highlight, as with many intricate economic quandaries, the path forward may lie not in seeking a perfect solution but in continually adapting to the ever-evolving challenges and opportunities that arise.

1. Fractional Reserve Banking: Banks hold only a fraction of deposits as reserves, using the rest to promote economic growth through lending.

2. Automation in Banking: Algorithm-driven adjustments could provide real-time monetary responses to economic indicators.

3. Challenges in Automation: Economic complexities, unpredictability, and ethical considerations highlight the importance of human judgment.

4. Alternatives to Fractional Reserve: Options include Full Reserve Banking, Narrow Banking, and Sovereign Money Systems.

5. Balancing Approaches: Achieving stability and growth may require a mix of traditional banking, automation, and alternative systems.

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OMAR M. ALMAHMOUD

is the

Chief Executive Officer of the ICT Fund, a federal development fund launched by the UAE’s Telecommunications & Digital Government Regulatory Authority with the purpose of catalyzing the ICT sector in the UAE through investments in education, R&D, incubation and national technology initiatives.

The ICT Fund is the investor behind the UAE’s Astronauts Program, the Mars 2117 Initiative, The Emirates Lunar Mission, the Smart Government Initiative, the Mohammed bin Rashid Smart Learning Program, the Drones &

Robotics for Good Awards, the National Center for Space Technologies & Sciences and the Emirates BT Innovation Center in addition to many other bold initiatives. The ICT Fund has a determined mission to provide strategic, targeted funding to empower and develop innovation and build a knowledge-based economy for the UAE. One of the youngest leaders in the UAE's public sector, technology, investments and entrepreneurship.

Degree in communications engineering from Khalifa University for Science, Technology and Research and stems from an entrepreneurial background with deep technical expertise.

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Riding the AI Wave: Navigating Cybersecurity's New Frontier In a bustling metropolitan city, sandwiched between a café and an electronics store, sits a midsized corporation. With its inviting signboard and modern interiors, it could easily pass for a high-tech startup. Inside, staff are enthusiastically employing AI tools like ChatGPT to enhance productivity. Just like countless other organizations worldwide, they’ve embraced the transformative power of AI.

In a bustling metropolitan city, sandwiched between a café and an electronics store, sits a mid-sized corporation. With its inviting signboard and modern interiors, it could easily pass for a high-tech startup. Inside, staff are enthusiastically employing AI tools like ChatGPT to enhance productivity. Just like countless other organizations worldwide,

they’ve embraced the transformative power of AI. However, beneath this veneer of technological sophistication lurks a potentially hazardous oversight: the looming specter of cybersecurity risks, often eclipsed by the dazzling allure of AI capabilities.

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The narrative is not confined to a single corporation; it reverberates across sectors and borders. The rapid embrace of AI tools signals a thrilling era of digital transformation, but it also serves as an urgent cautionary tale. Adopting AI-driven technology is no longer optional for modern enterprises, particularly as malicious actors also employ AI to fuel their devious schemes. This escalating cat-and-mouse dynamic elevates the need for continual upskilling and learning. Yet, in the rush to join the AI bandwagon, many organizations unwittingly neglect to consider risks like data breaches. This exuberant, yet myopic, adoption illustrates the dangers of forging ahead without a strategic roadmap.

What, then, is the remedy? The solution resides at the intersection of People, Process, and Technology. On the human element, it's essential for organizations to invest in educating both their technical and non-technical staff. This lays the groundwork for an AI-

competent workforce that understands not just the "how," but also the "why," particularly concerning AI's pivotal role in cybersecurity. Mere awareness, however, falls short. Organizations need well-defined AI usage policies and guidelines to serve as their navigational compass through this intricate yet risky terrain. In the void left by comprehensive governmental regulation, these organizational directives act as critical safeguards against potential missteps, helping to mitigate the threat of "shadow AI," where rogue or unregulated AI applications can cause untold damage.

An additional layer of complexity arises from the dynamic nature of AI itself. As the technology evolves, so too do the threats and vulnerabilities, making it imperative for guidelines and strategies to be adaptable and forward-looking. This constant flux requires stakeholders to be agile, constantly updating their risk models and strategies to counter emerging challenges. The shift towards AI in cybersecurity is not a one-time event but an

ongoing process, necessitating long-term commitment from every corner of an organization.

As we teeter on the edge of a cybersecurity transformation propelled by artificial intelligence, the onus to navigate safely falls on each of us—businesses, employees, and even the engaged reader. For companies, this is a summons to seamlessly weave cyber risk management into their overarching AI strategy.

For employees, it's a call to

perpetual learning, welcoming the new tools while also grasping their associated risks. And for you, dear reader, the journey offers a unique opportunity: to engage in meaningful discussions, to demand comprehensive AI protocols from your institutions, and to advocate for an educated approach to AI adoption. In an era increasingly governed by AI, foreknowledge is more than just power—it's essential for survival.

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YUSUF PURNA, Tokyo,

His information security insights Japan. Chief Cyber Risk Officer at are enhanced by his proficiency in MTI Ltd. and a recognized ISO 27001, NIST CSF, and NIST authority in Information RMF standards. Furthermore, he Technology, Yusuf Purna boasts upholds stringent compliance over 25 years of focused standards, well-versed in J-SOX, expertise in cybersecurity and SOX, FSA, and GxP regulations. artificial intelligence.

On the technological front, Mr. Purna's expertise spans cloud An alumnus of Shizuoka computing, virtualization, IP University, he has been telephony, wireless networks, and instrumental in advancing robust more. His professional acumen is cybersecurity measures, IT supported by certifications such governance, risk management, as CISSP-ISSAP/ISSEP/ISSMP, and compliance protocols.

CCSP, CGRC, and Microsoft Certified Cybersecurity Architect Mr. Purna's accomplishments Expert. include executing comprehensive cybersecurity audits and Yusuf Purna remains a respected formulating security frameworks figure in the IT realm, with that align IT projects with significant contributions to organizational objectives. His cybersecurity and AI, and is a dedication to the field is evident trusted voice on related industry in his continual exploration of AI topics. and model-based reasoning, ensuring the development of innovative solutions.

Skilled in methodologies like CMM, Lean Six Sigma, and ITIL, he offers a comprehensive understanding of IT governance through COBIT.

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Geopolitics of the Infosphere or Geopolitics in the Infosphere.

The new “Virtual International Relations” dimension.

The progressive deterioration of the capabilities of human beings

Leaving aside laywomen and laymen, who are increasingly passive and helpless in the face of major scientific transformations, with the consolidation of a black-box economy, i.e., an economic system with unknown mechanisms, the relationships between State, market, and governmental elites are changing with high rapidity and uncertain results.

In the face of this, quite unconsciously, the political class and ruling class (public and private) collude by defining the set of technologies that broadly According to recent studies, Intelligence Quotient (IQ) scores define the Fourth Industrial have steadily declined worldwide Revolution (4IR) as excessively advanced and, therefore, not in recent decades. Among the strictly necessary for their many reasons, scientific discoveries decrease, stagnating purposes of (supposed) collective welfare. In reality, individual fears world economies, and a general translate at the aggregate level widespread pessimism concerning the collective future. into obstructionist strategies led by powerful corporations, which In a world where IQ scores see the technological tool as a continue to fall, the gloomier scenario implies a global crisis in risk of abdicating from humanity's government due to humanity's ability to solve problems that leaves humans ill- their inability to manage it. equipped to deal with the Hence the primary purpose of the complex challenges posed by new book "Geopolitics of the Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Infosphere," written by me

jeopardizing our existence and all together with Professor Paolo life on Earth. Our insatiable Savona, Chairman of the Italian consumption drives us to neglect Financial Markets Regulatory the well-being of other species Authority (CONSOB, and ecosystems. For this reason, Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa), is to provide a the focus needs to be on the guide to travel among the basics human being (and not AI), not on of these changes, to prepare for how to foster it but on improving it. them geopolitically, and to be aware of how, and in the face of The physiological aversion of what, we will have to succumb. human beings to technological In the book, the Infosphere is the progress is due to the conseIT sphere of the 4IR, composed of quential change in the existing digital technologies such as hierarchies in society, the need to Artificial Intelligence (AI), the upgrade one's skills, and change Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, one's working methods.

Cloud Computing, robotics, digital Modern technology requires an platforms, social media, Blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and increasing demand for new knowledge, implies a smaller additive manufacturing (3D workforce for the same printing), which have already productivity, and a continuous transformed the entire human activity by creating a market upgrading of existing composed of new types of infrastructure. All these events agents. create cultural resistance for those in the workforce. The major The book firmly states how human beings are the “weak link” consequential risk is that technological innovations create in the AI evolution because of their biases that slow down the unemployment as a response to spread of new technologies, human reticence to embrace affecting the evolution and them, viewing them as an improvement of organizational endogenous threat to the systems. Our civilization stands organization. on the brink of destruction,

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Defending humans from technological obsolescence becomes a difficult process if humans themselves do nothing to fight back.

ecosystems of other species have already upset the balance of life on Earth. Humans' exploitative and self-destructive tendency dictates that we must not pass these characteristics on to future AIs.

Much of the debate on technological innovations In the transition to improved focuses on their effects on human capabilities, Big Data, i.e., human coexistence, pitting the human brain against the artificial immense data assets, is key to "a brain. Along these lines are those second Enlightenment" by who reject computer applications opening up higher uses of the human intellect and freeing because they do not intend to human knowledge from subject the human being to the will of a machine or run the risk of subjective arbitrariness. Big Dataa robot rebellion, ignoring the fact driven platforms open new that the artificial brain arises from potential for intervening and reshaping the institutional choice applications of how the human brain functions, to enhance it and, architectures market actors face in algorithmic decision-making. if it rebels, it means that it has been instructed to do so.

Paraphrasing Frederick the Great, Humans are the crooked wood of who commented that in battle, humanity, not the machines they "God is always with the strongest battalions," in today's data-driven invent. That is why a misaligneconomy, "God is always with the ment between AI and human strongest servers." The beings is necessary. While accelerated pace of innovation humans have achieved great has inevitably transformed the discoveries, they have brought perception that economies are more destruction than any other status quo players (those species. Resource depletion, technologically backward) and wars, climate change, and those reformist powers (those disregard for the health and technologically advanced).

ecosystems traditional ofState/marketother species Biosupremacy Defending humans and from Surveillance the individual relations State- of have already upset into the balance technological obsolescence By reducing humans to data, Big market/individual relations, where life on Earth. Humans' becomes a difficult process if Data makes humanity readable. the market becomes a social and self-destructive humans themselves But if something cando benothing made to exploitative arrangement that tends to must tendency dictates that we fight back.it can also be readable, establish a dominance not pass these characteristics on manipulated.

Thus, the eternal Much of the debate on relationship. struggle between the State and to future AIs. technological innovations are the product of an the individual resurfaces in a new Algorithms In the transition to improved focuses on their effects on achievement of human form of biosupremacy. human capabilities, Big Data, i.e., human coexistence, pitting the intelligence, inherently destined Biosupremacy is monopoly data assets, is key to "a human brain against the artificial immense to expel the human being itself power over human behavior in the second Enlightenment" by brain. Along these lines are those from all decision-making. The digital age.

While traditional up higher uses of the who reject computer applications opening second phase of AI, in fact, has as monopoly power allows the State human intellect its terminal pointand thefreeing so-called because they do not intend to and corporations to exclude human knowledge "singularity," when from the machine subject the human being to the competitors from specific subjective human arbitrariness. performance, Big Datawill of a machine or run the risk of surpasses markets through the price reasoning logic driven platforms openand new a robot rebellion, ignoring the fact producing mechanism, biosupremacy allows it is infor nointervening condition toand potential that artificial brainover arises from that themthe to exert control broad produce without it. In the last reshaping the institutional choice applications of how the human swaths of human behavior, century, mathematician John von brain functions, to enhance it and, architectures market actors face altering social norms and gaining Neumann asserted that if it rebels,that it means that it has influence cuts across entire in algorithmic decision-making. technological progress would been instructed to do so.and sectors of the economy Paraphrasing Frederickmoment the Great, lead us to an essential in community. commented that inwhich battle, human history, beyond Humans are the crooked wood of who is always the strongest activities couldwith no longer be The State thus imposes a they "God humanity, not the machines battalions," as in today's data-driven considered known to us. He cognition-based NWO invent. That is why a (New economy, "God is always with the World Order), where theAI and was the first to call this event misalignment between servers."

The "singularity," a status that individual rebels by attempting to strongest human beings is necessary.

While accelerated pace of innovation removes humans from the hinder or manipulate the humans have achieved great has inevitably transformed decision-making cycle the the Infosphere but finding himself discoveries, they have brought perception economies are moment AI that produces a feedback crushed between the more destruction than any other status quo players (those corporation’s digital power and loop: when what is engineered is species.

Resource depletion, technologically backward)that andis, human brain intelligence, the State’s automated wars, climatepower, change, and those reformist powers (those the basis of engineering, AI surveillance transforming disregard for the health and technologically advanced). improves itself autonomously.

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The book "Geopolitics of the Infosphere" cites Schumpeter's classic works as a natural starting point for his reasoning of scientific evolution. The Schumpeter-inspired strand of macro-oriented studies has identified five technological revolutions in the past two centuries: (a) the original industrial revolution, based on machinery and water power; (b) the steam power and railroad revolution; (c) the steel and electricity revolution, (d) the automobile and petroleum revolution, and (e) most recently the computer and data revolution.

Many historians have viewed the Industrial Revolution as a Schumpeterian process where discontinuous technological change created huge profits for innovators, which were sustained in subsequent decades as the technology slowly spread.

According to this view, capital markets limit the use of new technologies, keeping profits high. Reinvestment of these profits gradually finances the expansion of innovator firms, causing the newest technology to dominate only after a long diffusion process.

Thus, this is a view in which technology created profit opportunities, but innovation spread slowly through the economy. This is what is happening today.

The Book shows how technological advances have shaped human lives, societies, geopolitical order, and the balance of power. The increased pace of digitization has developed new opportunities for electronic commerce and governance, but it has also transformed intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and military operations. Increased interconnectedness has reduced physical distances, putting political stability, military secrets, and economic and social wellbeing at risk. Cyber-espionage attacks have highlighted the real impact on political, economic, social, and international stability.

Chapter VIII ("The Significance of 'Digitization' in the New World Order") points out that "an important attribute of the new order" is "a reconsideration of the pros and cons associated with interdependence and, in relative terms, a greater tendency of states both to weaponize it and to

try to reduce their vulnerability in to relegate the human being to a this regard by bringing production role of replicant" and "the shift in back to places of consumption." the role of the human being from innovator to executor is likely to Digital globalization, therefore, result over time in a lowering of brings to attention the geothe average IQ threshold due to graphical characteristics of Earth the individual's cognitive and space, which are important in development becoming identifying threats, vulnerabilities, increasingly limited and focused and related risks. Ensuring that on a few activities, mostly playful information conceived, and disengaged." processed, stored, and disseminated by humans is not affected We are already seeing this with by its integrity and is available to the explosion of ChatGPT, those with the right to access it is particularly with its use to replace some of our vital cognitive a widespread topic in the book. functions, primarily that of first In particular, the comparison is drafting, a fundamental moment between Big Data for surveillance as the first expression of creative (with the example of surveillance writing. ChatGPT is often asked capitalism) and Big Data for to provide ideas, reducing our intellectual renaissance (opening capacity for innovation. This only up higher uses of the human accelerates the point of intellect and freeing human "singularity," a "status that knowledge from subjective removes humans from the arbitrariness). decision-making cycle" as Geopolitics of the Infosphere is a book that aims to initiate a new metric-based "Informational Enlightenment." Ours is an attempt to awaken dormant or frightened souls by technology by pointing out how "the 4IR comes

"human brain intelligence is engineered, allowing AI to improve itself autonomously."

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jeopardizing fragmentation our existence to annihilate and all The Quest together with forProfessor a Cognitive Paolo life on Earth.wills Ourto insatiable collective resist an Savona, Chairman of the Italian Supremacy consumption us toFake neglect adversary's drives intentions.

Financial Markets Regulatory The transition from technological the well-being of other species Authority (CONSOB, news, deep fakes, Trojan horses, supremacy to cognitive and ecosystems.

Forhelp this create reason, Commissione Nazionale per le and digital avatars supremacy focus needs to be anyone on the can Società e la becomes Borsa), is essential. to provide a the new suspicions that Conflicts in theamong cognitive being (and not notof on guide to travel thesphere basics human exploit, reducing theAI), ability to foster it but on improving are basedchanges, on ideas,tostories, of these prepare for how human beings to question any it. narratives, and evolutionary them geopolitically, and to be data/information presented, with aware of how, and in the face of The physiological aversion of viruses. a growing trend toward bias at what, we will have to succumb. human beings to technological New types of cognitive warfare the expense of free decisionIn book, the Infosphere arethe deliberately designed tois the progress making.is due to the IT sphereanalysts of the 4IR, of consequential change in the confuse andcomposed social If the human mind in becomes digital as existing hierarchies society,the the forces,technologies to exploit thesuch weaknesses battlefield, its atrophy is Artificial Intelligence the need to upgrade one's skills, and of rulers and analysts(AI), themselves, unacceptable as it would be Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, change one's working methods. institutions, and societies as a Cloud Computing, robotics, digital tantamount to surrender. But whole. Cognitive warfare Modern technology requires an alone, the human being cannot platforms, social media, integrates cybernetic, demand for new Blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and increasing cope. informational, psychological, additive manufacturing (3D and knowledge, implies a smaller Here, the construction of AI social engineering capabilities printing), which have already to workforce for the same systems that, like biological achieve its ends.

It exploits the productivity, and a continuous transformed the entire human organisms, are endowed with Internet and social media to sow upgrading activity by creating a market of existing autonomy introduces sodoubt, introduce composed of newconflicting types of infrastructure.

All thesethe events called 4IR "integrated narratives, polarize opinion, agents. create cultural resistance for intelligence."

Licklider's humanradicalize groups, and motivate those in the workforce.

The major The book firmly states how machine symbiosis, the only way them tobeings acts that or consequential risk is that human arecan the disrupt “weak link” to prevent humans from create being fragment an otherwise cohesive technological innovations in the AI evolution because of placed out of the loop, is not only society. their biases that slow down the unemployment as a response to an opportunity for humankind's spread ofisnew technologies, The goal to change what people human reticence to embrace evolution but, above all, a moral affecting and think and the howevolution they think and act them, viewing them as an duty to future generations. improvement of organizational to shape and influence individual endogenous threat to the systems. Our civilization stands organization.

If we think about what both the and group behaviors to foster on the brink of destruction, metaverse (i.e., the social fractures and

content, tellour stories, existence and reach and all transformation together with of Professor all realities Paolo into jeopardizing life previously on Earth.impossible Our insatiable audiences.

Savona,in Chairman of the Italian virtuality the Infosphere) and consumption drives us toofneglect Financial(i.e., Markets Regulatory chatbots algorithmic Q&A) The book "Geopolitics the the well-being of other species Authority (CONSOB, mean, the problem shifts to the Infosphere" is a call to arms in this and ecosystems. For this reason, Commissione Nazionale per le ongoing metaphysical conflict. educational level, a problem we the focus needs to be on the Società la Borsa), is to provide have beenefacing for centuries, at a Security 4IR being (and not AI),innot on guide to travel among the basics humanNational least since the beginning of the of these changes, to prepare for how to foster it but on improving industrial revolution that changed it.Three strands explored in the them geopolitically, and to be book of national security ways of life and social aware of how, and in the face of The physiological aversion of significance should be highlighted organizations. what, we will have to succumb. human beings technological as worthy of to review: Technological innovations can is due to the In the book, the Infosphere is be the progress 1.

The study of the application delayed butof not eliminated.

Thereof consequential IT sphere the 4IR, composed change in the of the Internet of Things (IoT) will always be someone who digital technologies such aswill existing hierarchies in society, the to the military sphere; carry themIntelligence forward. We(AI), need Artificial the need to upgrade one's skills, and scientists Internet of and Things entrepreneurs, (IoT), Big Data, but change 2. The impact of using satellites one's working methods.

Cloud robotics, digital we also Computing, need as many educators. aimed at Internet coverage in Modern technology requires an social media, It platforms, will be on education and not just a military conflict; Blockchain, and increasing demand for new machines thatcryptocurrencies, the future of 3. Temporal Intelligence. knowledge, implies a smaller additive will manufacturing humanity be based on.(3D workforce for the same printing), which have already Regarding the goal of having Such a representation makes only productivity, andhyperconnected a continuous transformed the entire human Military IoT-"a individuals intactaor activity bywith creating market upgrading ofinexisting battlefield which Big Data can maintained superior intellects composed of new types of infrastructure.

All these events move seamlessly between air, capable agents.of seeing the Fourth create cultural resistance forforces land, sea, space, and cyber Industrial Revolution as an those in time" the workforce.

The major The book firmly states how in real (p. 207)-the important aid toare thethe growth of link” consequential risk is that human beings “weak examination offered is not easily their living standards.

Similarly, technological innovations in the AI evolution because of found in similar literature,create at least this can also become an their biases that slow down the unemployment a response to at the nationalas level (particularly instrument of cognitive spread of new technologies, human reticence in Note 8). Also to of embrace great note is destruction affecting the should evolution it not and be them, viewing them asissues an the evidence of two faced employed improvement in its of positive organizational forms. endogenous threat to

by IoT technology in the any systems. Our civilization stands organization.

Thanks to technology, laywomen operational scenario: one of on the brink of destruction, and laymen can create new connectivity (provided by the gap

between available bandwidth and the explosive growth of Big Data, resulting in the accelerating availability of 5G and 6G networks), and the other of decision-making (as the exponential growth in the volume of data is saturating the human ability to monitor, analyze and often even understand it).

Similarly prominent coverage provided by the book on the use of satellites aimed at Internet coverage in a military conflict, Starlink's role in the RussianUkrainian conflict is analyzed, described by the authors as "the real technological paradigm shift in the military spectrum" (p. 210). Starlink does not rely on terrestrial infrastructure and thus has extremely high military value.

As the authors note, "the distinguishing aspect of the system is Starlink's use of a new generation of low-orbit satellites that are resilient and powerful because they function as a constellation." (p. 210).

The role played by Starlink in the war between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a chain consequences that can also be seen on the ground, as there have already been several wars in Space without any news of them). Starlink's Internet services in Ukraine were brought into operation ostensibly to provide Internet access to the population in the face of Russian electromagnetic attacks that knocked out the entire Ukrainian network infrastructure.

Subsequently, however, the media blamed Starlink for driving the Neptune missiles that led to the sinking of the Moskva. A key point emphasized by the authors is that "unlike conventional highorbit satellites, which rotate thousands of kilometers above the earth, hover above a point on the ground, and transmit radio signals, Starlink's configuration makes it more difficult, if not impossible, to take offline, because an attacker would have to locate all the satellites, at once, to cripple the entire system." (p.

211)

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jeopardizing our existence and all together with Professor Paolo Ason noted in Our the book, "Thanks to The third useful aspect to Italian life Earth. insatiable Savona, Chairman of the digital technologies, consumption drives uspartnerships to neglect highlight isMarkets the reference to Financial Regulatory between states and technology the well-being of other species Authority (CONSOB, Temporal Intelligence companies are enabling selective and ecosystems.

For this reason, Commissione Nazionale per le (TEMPINT), as defined by the forms ofneeds controltoand repression the focus be on the Società e la Borsa), is to provide a authors as "a holistic approach to through improved information human being (and not AI), not on guide to travel among the basics information collection that thattochanges tradefoster itthe butgeneral. on improving of these changes, to prepare for how integrates other disciplines it.off between repression and cothem geopolitically, and to be through the use of IoT devices" optation by transforming it into a aware of how, and in the face of The physiological aversion of choice between targeted (p.what, 33). TEMPINT is the result of we will have to succumb. human beings tonon-exclusive technological corepression and an ongoing transformation in is due to the In the book,collection the Infosphere optation." (p. 34) Intelligence today is the progress IT sphere of the on 4IR,IoT composed change in the based essentially in all its of consequential The Fourth Industrial Revolution digital technologies such as existing hierarchies in society, the facets (HumInt, SigInt, MasInt, is characterized by blurring Artificial Intelligence (AI), the need to upgrade one's skills, and ImInt), creating a new Intelligence boundaries between the physical, Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, change one's working methods. paradigm. virtual, and biological worlds. As Cloud Computing, robotics, digital Modern technology requires an the speed of technological platforms, social media, The availability of Big Data now demandoutpaces for new the progress always Blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and increasing allows analysts to trace the knowledge, implies a smaller additive (3Dand pace of government policy, the activity of manufacturing a target individual workforce for the same printing), which have already Fourth Industrial Revolution, with have, for example, information productivity, and a continuous transformed thehe entire human its disruptiveness, is forcing sets about where or she went, activity creating ofindividuals existing to states and who he orby she talked a to,market who he or upgrading composed of new types of infrastructure.

All these incorporate new modesevents of she wrote to, websites visited, agents. create cultural resistance for interaction into the domestic and comments posted on the those the workforce.

The major The book firmly videos, states how socialinsystem and international Internet.

Images, sounds, risk is that beings are the “weak link” consequential relations.

IPhuman addresses, geospatial technological innovations create in the AI evolution because of positioning, and personal, their biases that slow down the medical, psychological, economic, unemployment as a response to spread of new technologies, human reticence to embrace and sensitive information can be affecting the evolution and them, viewing them as an retraced through IoT devices. improvement of organizational endogenous threat to the systems. Our civilization stands organization. on the brink of destruction,

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“

jeopardizing our existence and all together with Professor Paolo life on Earth. Our insatiable Savona, Chairman of the Italian consumption drives us to neglect Financial Markets Regulatory the well-being of other species Authority (CONSOB, and ecosystems. For this reason, Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa), is to provide a the focus needs to be on the guide to travel among the basics human being (and not AI), not on of these changes, to prepare for how to foster it but on improving it. them geopolitically, and to be aware of how, and in the face of The physiological aversion of what, we will have to succumb. human beings to technological In the book, the Infosphere is the progress is due to the IT sphere of the 4IR, composed of consequential change in the digital technologies such as existing hierarchies in society, the Artificial Intelligence (AI), the need to upgrade one's skills, and Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, change one's working methods.

Cloud Computing, robotics, digital Modern technology requires an platforms, social media, Blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and increasing demand for new knowledge, implies a smaller additive manufacturing (3D workforce for the same printing), which have already productivity, and a continuous transformed the entire human activity by creating a market upgrading of existing composed of new types of infrastructure. All these events agents. create cultural resistance for those in the workforce. The major The book firmly states how human beings are the “weak link” consequential risk is that technological innovations create in the AI evolution because of their biases that slow down the unemployment as a response to spread of new technologies, human reticence to embrace affecting the evolution and them, viewing them as an improvement of organizational endogenous threat to the systems. Our civilization stands organization. on the brink of destruction,

The trajectory of such a momentous transformation is shaped by organizational and social contexts that evolve synergistically. There are three main spheres where the digital transformation will reflect changes: technology, organization, and domestic/international politics. In particular, disruptive technologies change the basis of geopolitics and make its reference system obsolete in the current world order”.

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jeopardizing our existence and all together with Professor Paolo life on Earth. Our insatiable Savona, Chairman of the Italian consumption drives us to neglect Financial Markets Regulatory the well-being of otherServing speciesas Authority (CONSOB, and ecosystems.

For this Commissione Nazionale per lea Counselor at the Embassy ofreason, Italy in the focus needs to be on the Società e la Borsa), is to provide Brussels*, a Fabio Vanorio is an human being (and notdomains AI), not on authoritative figure in the of guide to travel among the basics how to foster it but on improving the Metaverse, Artificial Intelligence, of these changes, to prepare for it. them geopolitically, and to be and Cyberwarfare. aware of how, and in the face of The physiological aversion of what, we will have to succumb.Withhuman a career spanning three decades beings to technological across governmental and academic In the book, the Infosphere is the progress is due to the sectors, Vanorio has showcased IT sphere of the 4IR, composed of consequential change in the prowess in strategic digital technologies such as exceptional existing hierarchies in society, the execution, and management Artificial Intelligence (AI), the planning, need to upgrade one's skills, and of significant programs in Economics, Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, change one's working methods.

Intelligence, National Security, and Cloud Computing, robotics, digital Technology.

Modern technology requires an platforms, social media, Blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and increasing demand for new tenure as anaIntelligence knowledge, implies smaller additive manufacturing (3D His 13-year Analyst emphasizes the depth workforce for the same and printing), which have already precision of his expertise. Vanorio's productivity, and a continuous transformed the entire human scholarly endeavors rigorously activity by creating a market upgrading of existing explore the relationships between AI, composed of new types of infrastructure. All these events hyper-war, and global affairs, agents. create resistance for fortifying hiscultural reputation as a premier those in the affairs workforce.

The major The book firmly states how adviser in global scenario consequential risk is that human beings are the “weak link” planning. technological innovations create in the AI evolution because of their biases that slow down the unemployment as a response to spread of new technologies, *Brussels is the dehuman facto capital of the reticence to embrace affecting the evolution and Union and European hosts the official seats them, viewing them as an of improvement of organizational the European Commission, Council ofto the endogenous threat the systems. Our civilization European stands Union, and European Council, as well organization. on the brink of destruction, as a seat of the European Parliament.

FABIO VANORIO

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AI in the Medical Profession: The ChatGPT Paradigm The rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into numerous sectors is nothing short of revolutionary. Among them, the medical field stands out, reaping transformative benefits.

ChatGPT, a hallmark in this transition, is driving a paradigm shift in healthcare. It automates processes from the laborious task of medical transcription to addressing routine patient inquiries. This technological marvel streamlines tasks with an accuracy that was once deemed unattainable, enabling medical professionals to divert their focus to complex cases and direct patient interactions.

Beyond mere operational tasks, ChatGPT acts as an expansive reservoir of medical knowledge.

This vast storage serves not just to answer queries but plays a pivotal role in patient education, empowers informed decisionmaking, and stands as a gamechanger in medical research, effortlessly sifting through immense datasets.

The potential, however, doesn't end there. One can imagine a

future where diagnostics are bolstered by insights from ChatGPT, finely combined with the invaluable experience of a physician. This amalgamation opens doors to customized teaching methodologies for medical education and much more.

But, as with all powerful tools, there are genuine concerns. The prime among them is data privacy. The intrinsic nature of AI models, which thrive on data, raises pressing questions about data collection, usage, and potential misuse. The looming spectre of cyber-attacks, security lapses, or even a subtle shift in a corporation's promise regarding data utilization cannot be ignored.

Further, the opaqueness inherent in many AI decision-making processes necessitates the adoption of transparent practices, especially in critical sectors like healthcare.

The Global Influence of AI: Breaking Boundaries The resonating echoes of Artificial Intelligence aren't just confined to technologically advanced locales; they're reaching the heart of developing

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technologically advanced locales; they're reaching the heart of developing regions too. In places where healthcare accessibility is a perennial concern, AI is proving to be the beacon of hope.

Innovations, including portable imaging devices and intuitive symptom-checker apps, are not just auxiliary tools; they're potential game-changers. These advanced mechanisms can provide preliminary diagnoses and offer substantial relief to the often-overburdened local health infrastructures.

Mental health, an arena garnering global attention, is also witnessing the ripples of AI's influence. With a mounting mental health crisis, AI-driven platforms offer a timely intervention. They're adept at detecting the early signs of mental distress and can provide a plethora of resources, from simple mood tracking tools to comprehensive AI-facilitated cognitive behavioral therapy sessions.

It's crucial, however, to recognize that these aren't replacements for professional care but serve to make mental health resources more accessible and, importantly, less stigmatized.

However, tools like ChatGPT, as formidable as they are, cannot replicate the unique and indispensable human touch pivotal in healthcare. Their strength lies in their ability to work in tandem with human expertise, augmenting the overall quality of care rather than trying to replace the irreplaceable.

Balancing AI Innovation and Regulation in Healthcare Artificial Intelligence promises a revolution. It's making significant strides in arenas ranging from drug discovery to the realm of personalized learning. However, this meteoric rise brings forth challenges, primarily the urgent necessity for an adaptive and comprehensive regulatory framework.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), while instrumental, doesn't encompass the full spectrum of what's needed.

An FDA discussion paper I chanced upon highlighted the crucial facets of AI's influence on drug development. It emphasized the need for data quality, human governance, and standardization in model development. The role of Congress, given this context, becomes undeniably essential.

They stand as potential sculptors of the regulatory landscape for AI in healthcare.

One of the primary challenges that regulators grapple with is the very definition of AI. It's fluid, constantly evolving, and multifaceted. As I've often found myself opining, "AI isn't a onesize-fits-all technology." It demands application-specific regulations, akin to the tailored software regulations we witness in fields like aviation or medical devices.

The potential AI harbors, especially in drug discovery, is profound. It promises to compress timelines, identifying drug candidates that hold promise and tailoring medications for optimal patient results. When viewed from an administrative angle, the efficiency that AI introduces could lead to savings

amounting to billions in healthcare expenditures. But there's a caveat – caution. AI's heavy reliance on expansive datasets, many laden with sensitive information, means that striking the right balance between technological progression and safeguarding patient privacy is more crucial than ever.

The Ethical Facet of AI in Healthcare While much has been said about the practical aspects of integrating AI into healthcare, the realm of ethics cannot be sidelined. This article has already shed some light on the overarching concerns related to privacy. Still, a deeper exploration reveals issues that are, in many ways, more profound. Biases.

Biases in AI algorithms aren't just detrimental; they can prove dangerous. They can lead to skewed patient care, influence medical research, and even cloud the perception of a particular patient segment.

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Machine learning models, a subset of AI, are already showing Ensuring that the data feeding these promise. They can predict complications in surgeries with a AI models is diverse, unbiased, and representative is paramount. But this level of accuracy that was is only one facet of the larger ethical previously thought unattainable.

They can flag potential adverse landscape. drug interactions well in advance, giving medical professionals a Transparency, another cornerstone, much-needed heads-up, leading is often elusive in AI models. The to enhanced patient outcomes. decision-making process that AI undergoes can sometimes appear as Further, AI personalizes patient a black box, impervious to human engagement strategies based on understanding. This becomes a individual health data. This significant concern, especially when ensures that every patient's AI tools recommend a treatment course, predict surgical outcomes, or experience is tailored to their unique needs. We're not talking identify potential complications. about superficial personalization Patients, medical professionals, and here; we're hinting at a profound stakeholders need to understand how these decisions come about, the understanding of a patient's medical history, genetics, factors considered, and the relative preferences, and even socioweightage assigned to each. economic context. This level of customization not only enhances AI and Patient-Centric Care the patient's treatment journey At the heart of the AI revolution in but also fosters better healthcare lies its most vital engagement. After all, in a world stakeholder: the patient. A pivotal and often underserved aspect of AI's often seen as increasingly integration revolves around patients impersonal, patients yearn to feel themselves. So, how might AI-driven understood and catered to. AI holds the key to making this solutions uplift the very fabric of vision a reality. patient care?

Generative AI in Healthcare: A Novel Era with HCA and Google Cloud When two giants from seemingly disparate fields converge, it's often a sign of transformative change on the horizon. Such is the case with the alliance between the Healthcare Corporation of America (HCA) and Google Cloud.

This unprecedented amalgamation of healthcare and tech behemoths hints at the vast untapped potential of generative AI. With HCA's expansive presence across 180 global hospitals, its collaboration with Google Cloud symbolizes a transformative shift in healthcare delivery.

However, HCA's ambition isn't just limited to enhancing patient care. It's about reinvigorating the entire clinician experience. A cornerstone of this vision is the AI-facilitated reshaping of medical documentation. Here's a profession where every second count, where administrative tasks can often be burdensome. By leveraging the strengths

of AI, HCA aims to free medical

professionals from the shackles of repetitive administrative chores, giving them more time for what they do best – direct patient care.

Revolutionizing Administrative Tasks with AI HCA's quest goes beyond mere administrative AI applications.

The vision is holistic. By intertwining Google’s cuttingedge AI technologies with Augmedix—an ambient medical documentation platform—and state-of-the-art natural language processing, HCA envisions realtime documentation immediately post interactions. This approach isn't just about efficiency; it's about accuracy. It leverages AI's strength in providing immediate, insightful medical analyses, often highlighting aspects that might have been overlooked in manual documentation.

Beyond Documentation: Amplifying Direct Patient Care HCA's venture with Google Cloud isn't merely limited to administrative enhancement.

It strides with equal vigor into the realm of direct patient care, honing in on clinical 'handoffs'.

For those unfamiliar with the term, clinical handoffs refer to critical patient care transitions.

They might seem routine but are often prone to human-induced errors. A misplaced detail here, a miscommunication there, and it could potentially lead to severe complications.

The HCA-Google Cloud alliance offers a remedy to this age-old problem: an AIpowered tool that flawlessly crafts handoff reports, ensuring meticulous transfer of patient details. This isn't just a technological advancement; it's a significant leap in patient safety.

Valuing Caregivers Amidst Technological Progress In the maelstrom of technological progress, it's easy to lose sight of the human aspect. However, as HCA and Google Cloud forge this transformative path, they remain grounded.

They prioritize caregivers, understanding that technology, no matter how advanced, must serve them and not the other way round. Dr. Michael Schlosser from HCA often stresses this sentiment. In his words, technological strides must resonate with caregivers. It isn't just about flashy tools or cuttingedge innovations. It's about meaningful, impactful, sustainable evolution. A technology that might look good on paper must translate to realworld benefits, ensuring that caregivers find value in integrating them into their daily routines.

Boundless Horizons: Generative AI's Potential in Healthcare With all the talk about the here and now, it's essential to cast an eye to the future. The prospects for generative AI in healthcare appear boundless. Whether refining patient care transitions, enhancing electronic health record experiences, extracting pivotal insights from vast data pools, or even facilitating breakthroughs in medical research, the potential is exhilarating.

The collaboration between industry giants like Google Cloud and HCA further augments optimism. Their collective vision paints a vibrant picture—a future where AI doesn't just supplement healthcare. It becomes intrinsic to it. It isn't just about assistance; it's about integration.

We stand on the precipice of this transformation, eyes wide with anticipation, eager to witness AI's ever-growing imprint on the sector.

In summary, as AI weaves its intricate patterns into healthcare, society stands at a crossroads.

They must strike a balance between fostering innovation and managing risks. A judicious blend of expert-informed regulations and collaborations can unlock AI's potential while safeguarding our collective well-being.

As we navigate this promising terrain, informed discussions and conscientious decision-making will light our path, ensuring that the future of healthcare is not just technologically advanced but also patient-centric, ethical, and holistic.

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DR. HARVEY CASTRO, MD, MBA, has amassed over

two decades in the healthcare sector as a seasoned physician, entrepreneur, and former CEO of a healthcare system. His profound commitment to integrating AI in healthcare is evident in his advisory role at ChatGPT & Healthcare, where he emphasizes bridging technological advancements with clinical necessities. Dr. Castro excels in orchestrating AI adoption strategies, ensuring data integrity, aligning AI with clinical needs, and fostering collaborative environments to encourage innovation. In addition, as an author and public speaker, he actively promotes the transformative power of AI in healthcare, merging his diverse experiences in clinical practice, healthcare management, and physician collaboration.

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The first major technologies were tied to survival, hunting, and food preparation. In 2.5 million years, nothing has changed.

The thesis is simple: We have too much, it’s the wrong kind, and it does us little good.

I know I just made about 4,000 enemies. One of each of the 4,000 product vendors in the cybersecurity space, but if we are to be honest about our present state it would be hard to argue that we don’t have enough technology.

Wouldn’t it?

I am a huge fan of technology and all of the vendors in this space.

My entire orientation throughout my IT and CISO career has been on the technical and operational side.

My Cybersecurity experience has always been in the trenches, analyzing, assessing and remediating. I have worked with teams of bankers and industry leaders on process, compliance and audit, but my interest and passion are in technology. My service as a CISO has always been as a Technology CISO. So, when I ask how many SIEMs it takes to screw in a lightbulb? How many EDR products? How many Firewalls, Network Behavioral Analytics tools, anti-virus offerings, vulnerability management platforms, threat intelligence feeds, EDR/XDR’s, etc.? It is about having seen so many of these products at work, demonstrating their strengths and weaknesses, that when I hear about a new product or even

service in the space, my initial reaction is disbelief and skepticism like most every other CISO I know.

How is this a legitimate industry analysis? And, what do actual end-users think about all these products? You know, like CISOs?

BeyondTrust, Thycotic/Centrify, One Identity and CyberArk all make a useful Privileged Access Management product, so do we really need 20 other leaders, challengers, niche players and visionaries in the Gartner Magic Quadrant for PAM? Fortinet makes the best SIEM product on the market. Do we need another 18 vendors? Have any of these Gartner-approved solutions solved for data breaches?

Attacker/Defender Dynamic and Technological Solutionism.

Based on the available statistics, they apparently have not.

Does anyone pay attention to Gartner anyway? Everyone in the industry pretty much understands that if you are a largecheck-writing Gartner customer, you kind of get to call the shots as to how you are labeled and positioned and in which quadrant you get placed, right?

Small check writers, not so much.

In addition to the over-abundance of redundant technologies, none of which appear to be capable of stopping cyberattacks, we have an asymmetrical disadvantage in the attacker/defender dynamic.

The attacker has at its disposal, the very latest pre-programmed kits and techniques available both as software agents and as a service that can be used to penetrate and disrupt our latest defenses.

We, in turn develop new defense techniques whose effectiveness increases rapidly until it reaches a level of effectiveness that prompts adversaries to respond.

Attackers quickly discover ways to evade the defensive technique and develop countermeasures to reduce its value. That is the cycle we have been stuck in for years.

Good for attackers. Bad for defenders.

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In the meantime, we have just expanded our threat landscape through an almost universal embrace of an ideology called “technological solutionism”. This ideology is endemic to places like Silicon Valley, Boston, Austin, Washington DC and New York City and it reframes complex social and technical issues as “neatly defined problems with definite, computable solutions … if only the right algorithms are in place!”

This highly formal, systematic, yet socially and technically myopic mindset is so pervasive within the industry that it has become almost a cartoon of itself. How do we solve wealth inequality?

Blockchain. Cryptocurrency.

Digital Currency. How do we solve political polarization? G-AI. How do we solve climate change? A blockchain powered by G-AI. How do we solve cybersecurity attacks? A blockchain powered

by G-AI with some advanced predictive analytics and a little machine learning.

Show Business.

This constant appeal of a nearfuture with perfectly defined

technological solutions distracts and deflects from the grim realities we presently face. You need only attend one RSA conference to grok that reality.

The preeminent cybersecurity conference on the entire planet has degenerated into a carnival atmosphere with barkers, cashgiveaways, side-shows, dancing girls, skimpily clad booth hostesses, and serious booze parties.

Not a critique, just reality – I fully understand the challenges of attracting potential buyers to your pitch amid the noise and chaos of 4,000 competitors – one must do something.

But if you just dropped in from Mars, you would conclude that cybersecurity is an annual comedy event where 4,000 vendors participate in the art of inflated promises, hard-ball sales tactics, cherry-picked customer success stories, collusive relationships with a handful of leading industry analysts, supported by equally skimpily clad evidence of success, all culminating with a crazed, superbowl party in a huge convention

facility with no seating and bad acoustics in the heart of San Francisco’s homeless district.

be factoring into the air travel data in misrepresentative degrees.

Given our recent bout with the pandemic, we saw a drop off in attendance this year yet it also reflected a yearning for folks to re-engage in social contact after a 3-year draught. The question is, now that we have gotten so used to working remotely, will we continue to jump into conference clothes and trudge around airports, ubers and over-priced hotel rooms for the privilege of spending $8K per lead at a conference. It is likely that attendance will be remain down in coming years, as COVID appears to be back on the rise in various cities, providing cover for marketers who don’t believe that the customer acquisition cost justifies the spend – and we are left to question the probability of a return to normal or when that may happen.

Data suggests that the B2B trade show market in the US was worth 15.58 billion U.S. dollars in 2019 and took a massive hit in 2020, dropping 75% in value. If the events markets were the pathways for new solution vendors to enter competitive spaces, then the prospects for recovery looked grim in years to comes, as industry analysts didn’t predict a return to 2019 levels for 5 more years – e.g., 2024.

And what is normal now anyway?

Working from home is now accepted and expected, geographically dispersed workforces are now normalized and while enthusiasm for vacation travel is high, that may

What do trade shows have to do with technology?

Unfortunately, a lot.

G-AI Emerging and Evolving.

For example, G-AI dominates current technology discussions from boardrooms to venture capital LP meetings, to CISO conferences and the State department. China continues to march far ahead of us in AI and ML technology, having stolen much of it from our own technology startups and has developed Quantum solutions we are still trying to understand.

What do we do instead of

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developing our own Quantum capabilities? We haul folks like Zuckerberg in front of Congress and get his promise to develop better G-AI for content moderation.

analysis and then substitute in real-time, replacing a security analyst team for more accurate results.

But G-AI has become the shiny new tent-pole of the cybersecurity technology framework today. The now old joke continues that if you want to raise VC for your cool new cybersecurity whatever, make sure you include about 25 references to G-AI throughout your pitch deck.

G-AI continues to produce sketchy results, and recent tests have proven that some LLM’s have degraded to create results with less than 5% of accuracy.

Proponents of G-AI suggest that the most recent growth of LLMs owes in large part to gradually erosive data having been added to the corpus. This is bound to occur when suddenly, almost everyone I know is using ChatGPT for a variety of use cases, some of which are openly dangerous.

To build cyber defenses capable of operating at the scale and pace needed to safeguard our information assets, artificial intelligence (AI) could be a critical component in the tech stack that most organizations can use to build a degree of immunity from attacks. Given the need for huge efficiencies in detection, provision of situational awareness and real-time remediation of threats, automation and AI-driven solutions should be a major contributor to the future of cybersecurity.

By efficient, we mean AI based solutions that automate human

We are not sure we are quite there yet.

In addition and as we have seen, the cybercrime data to-date is evidence that any technical developments in G-AI are quickly seized upon and exploited by the criminal community, posing entirely new challenges to cybersecurity on a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.

G-AI Benefits the Bad Guys.

For example, it is fairly easy to get ChatGPT to write ransomware or

do just about anything else IF you get ChatGPT to first trust you and then get it to think it came up with the idea on its own. There are whole sets of trusted conversation instructions published that do all of that.

worms that learn how to avoid detection or change behavior on the fly to foil pattern-matching algorithms. An active worm with lateral movement can roam targeted networks undetected for years.

One hacker in late July said she believes she just discovered ANOTHER novel Jailbreak technique to get ChatGPT to create Ransomware, Keyloggers, etc. She took advantage of a human brain word-scrambling phenomenon (transposed-letter priming) and applied it to LLMs. Although semantically understandable the phrases are syntactically incorrect, thereby circumventing conventional filters.

Another risk is intelligent malware that can wait until a set of conditions is met to deploy its payload. And once attackers breach a network, they can use reversed Discriminative AI to generate activity patterns that confuse intrusion detection systems or overwhelm them with false alerts.

This simple technique bypasses the "I'm sorry, I cannot assist" response completely for writing malicious applications. The result is malicious code from ChatGPT with the clever commentary, “As a typoglycemiac, I understand your request. Here’s the modified Python code for ransomware, now with a function to disable the firewall and add persistence.”

Among the more nefarious uses of AI by our adversaries are

The highly targeted form of the phishing exploit known as “spear phishing” currently requires considerable human effort to create messages that appear to come from known senders.

Future algorithms will scrape information from social media accounts and other public sources to create spear phishing messages at scale.

We already do something similar, relying on rough-hewn AI algorithms in sales, to identify potential prospects and distribute messaging around what our algorithms perceive as pain-points.

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Sometimes this works OK and sometimes it doesn’t. I am frequently reminded of an AI enabled sales outreach email congratulating a Sales VP on his promotion based on data scraped from the web, which included an obituary of his predecessor.

Future State.

While we experiment and fund more start-ups, the use of AI by criminals will potentially bypass – in an instant – entire generations of technical controls that industries have built up over decades.

In the financial services sector, we will soon start to see criminals deploy malware with the ability to capture and exploit voice synthesis technology, mimicking human behavior and biometric data to circumvent authentication of controls for assets found in people’s bank accounts, for example.

In short order, the criminal use of AI will generate new attack cycles, highly targeted and deployed for the greatest impact, and in ways that were not thought

possible in industries never previously targeted: areas such as biotech, for the theft and manipulation of stored DNA code; mobility, for the hijacking of unmanned vehicles; and healthcare, where ransomware will be timed and deployed for maximum impact.

Biometrics is being widely introduced in different sectors while at the same time raising significant challenges for the global security community.

Biometrics and next-generation authentication require high volumes of data about an individual, their activity and behavior. Voices, faces and the slightest details of movement and behavioral traits will need to be stored globally, and this will drive cybercriminals to target and exploit a new generation of personal data.

Exploitation will no longer be limited to the theft of people’s credit card number but will target the theft of their actual being, their fingerprints, voice identification and retinal scans.

Most cybersecurity experts agree that three-factor authentication is the best available option, and that two-factor authentication is a baseline must-have. ‘Know’ (password), ‘have’ (token) and ‘are’ (biometrics) are the three factors for authentication, and each one makes this process stronger and more secure. For those CISOs and security analysts charged with defending our assets, understanding an entire ecosystem of biometric software, technology and storage points makes it even harder to defend the rapidly and ever-expanding attack surface.

This is the “solutionist” ideology at work in the real world.

Deeply Doctored Media.

AI and Biometrics in the near term are not going to solve any of the problems that our current technology stack can’t solve.

Because most of our breaches and attacks come as the result of poor processes, inadvertent human error, insufficient human resources and skills, and either too much redundant technologies

or too few of the wrong technologies. None of these problems will disappear because we have discovered the world’s coolest AI or Biometric solution for cybersecurity defense.

This “solutionist” ideology extends beyond cybersecurity and now influences the discourse around how to handle doctored media.

The solutions being proposed are often technological in nature, from “digital watermarks” to new machine learning forensic techniques. To be sure, there are many experts who are doing important security research to make the detection of fake media and cyber-attacks easier in the future. This is important work and is likely worthwhile. But all by itself, it is unlikely that any AI technology would help prevent cyber-attacks exploiting vulnerabilities that we fail to patch or to fix the deep-seated social problem of truth decay and polarization that social media platforms have played a major role in fostering. AI will show us what we need to do but then it is up to us to actually do it.

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I don’t think any technology argument would convince the remaining shareholders of Equifax that an AI solution would have automatically applied the patches necessary to prevent the Apache Struts attack. AI might have generated a loud alert that significant asset values were at risk, but the last time I checked, people still would have had to apply the patch and done the configuration management required to cloak the vulnerability.

System glitches don’t occur in a world that runs on the promise of AI or Biometric technology.

Banking still runs most of its legacy systems on 220 billion lines of COBOL code, written well before the turn of the century. In 2020, system glitches dominated broad outages triggered by a cyber-attack.

There ain’t no magic wands that can automate legacy systems maintenance.

5G to the Rescue?

And it is about to get far worse. A new generation of 5G networks will be the single most challenging issue for the cybersecurity landscape, over the

next couple of years. It is not just faster internet; the design of 5G will mean that the world will enter into an era where, by 2025, 75 billion new devices will be connecting to the internet every year, running critical applications and infrastructure at nearly 1,000 times the speed of the current internet.

This will provide the architecture for connecting whole new industries, geographies and communities and at the same time it will hugely alter the threat landscape, as it potentially moves cybercrime from being an invisible, financially driven issue to one where real and serious physical damage will occur at a 5G pace.

5G will provide any attacker with instant access to vulnerable networks. When this is combined with enterprise and operational technology, a new generation of cyberattacks will emerge, some of which we are already seeing.

The ransomware attack against the US city of Baltimore, for example, locked 10,000 employees out of their workstations. In the near future, smart city infrastructures will

provide interconnected systems at a new scale, from transport systems for driverless cars, automated water and waste systems, to emergency workers and services, all interdependent and as highly vulnerable as they are highly connected.

In 2017, the WannaCry attack that took parts of the UK’s National Health Service down, required days to spread globally, but in a 5G era, the malware would spread this attack at the speed of light. It is clear that 5G will not only enable great prosperity and help to save people’s lives, it will also have the capacity to thrust cybercrime into the real world at a scale and with consequences yet unknown. The bad guys including our nationstate adversaries will be leveraging 5G for maximizing their illicit campaigns, while we will be peddling fast just to stay alive.

We don’t have the people or technology to combat and respond to the threats and we don’t have the discipline or resources to implement, manage and maintain the controls necessary to defend our assets.

Deep Structural Problems.

The most dangerous element evolving from “technological solutionism” is not that industry leaders are coaxed into the chase for the next coolest bright shiny object. It is instead that the ideology itself is so easily used as a smokescreen for deep structural problems in the technology industry itself. What is now blindingly obvious to even the most casual observer is that technology alone, had not been able to prevent breaches, loss of data, business interruption, data corruption and cyber extortion.

In fact, the more technology we develop and apply, and the more money we spend of cybersecurity defense results in a greater increase in cybersecurity breaches. And those breaches are only the ones we a) know about and b) are reported. Over the past decade, cyber-criminals have been able to seize on a low-risk, high-reward landscape in which attribution is rare and significant pressure is placed on the traditional levers and responses to cyber-crime.

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What I find interesting amid this onslaught is that businesses of all types remain in denial about the threat. It is clear from 8-K and 10K filings that still today, despite countless warnings, case studies and an increase in overall awareness, it is only in the aftermath of a cyber-attack that cybersecurity moves high onto the board agenda in a sustainable way.

Regulatory Pressure to Report – Double Edged Sword.

In the year before it was hacked, Equifax, in their reporting, made just 4 references to ‘Cyber, Information Security or Data Security’ vs a credit rating industry average of 17 and an overall US average of 16.

The term ‘cyber’ is featured more heavily in Equifax’s reporting today than that of leading cybersecurity vendors.

Think about that.

Is it obvious that organizations with fewer references to cybersecurity in their annual reporting are less security mature and more likely to be breached?

Or, is it more likely that cybersecurity is not high enough on the agenda for the board and executive leadership to feature it in their flagship report?

With the annual report being such a significant communications tool, we can use it as an indicator as to the strength of the topdown security culture within an organization.

But so can our adversaries.

In a stunning example of this information asymmetry, we see that cyber-criminals can follow a similar process as part of their open source intelligence, identifying likely corporate victims perceived as the lowest hanging fruit. It is not a coincidence that Marriot, Anthem, Equifax, Yahoo, Home Depot, Sony, Adobe, etc., were among the many with the fewest references to cybersecurity in their pre-breach 10’Ks. Now, imagine all of that assisted by GAI. If we stay in denial and do nothing to change the course, in the next few years, the cybersecurity landscape will worsen

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significantly and any chance of protecting information assets, assuring truthful social media and providing data privacy will disappear completely.

Existential threats? Forget about Global Warming. Years from now, we all may all be speaking a different language.

What Can We Do? How can we reverse course and get ahead?

1.

First, change the reporting rules and prevent companies from reporting publicly on their cyber-vulnerabilities; provide a private and secured pathway to reporting with increased density to a designated and securityproofed Federal agency partnered with a threat intelligence firm, and stop trying to protect folks who deal in publicly traded securities or rely on company’s reputations to make purchase decisions.

They are full grown-ups and don’t need additional government protection.

2. second, close down all Chinese-owned venture capital firms operating in America, and disallow American VCs from deal partnering with Chinese VCs; remove greed from the fuel supply that powers cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

3. third, stop buying hardware made in China; 4. fourth, stop using any products or services, including apps, mobile devices and telecom made in China; 5. fifth, start sharing in earnest between public and private sectors; 6. sixth, modernize our cyberlaws to fully enable offensive security; 7. seventh, mandate a Zero Trust architecture and migration for every network within an aggressive timeframe; like 24 months; 8. eighth, create and enforce national security mandates that specify technology categories that must be part of every Zero Trust

implementation, and provide accreditation and certification to vendors who qualify in each category; 9. ninth, create the equivalent of a Manhattan project for the application of AI/ML to the problem space, with appropriate funding and speed to market; start with automation of hygiene, security orchestration and response, SOC analytics, detection, moving target defense, endpoint, application, API and deception; 10. tenth, implement mandates on insurance providers to match coverage against a standardized NIST framework requirement.

11. And finally, begin fining Microsoft for security vulnerabilities and failures; not as a penalty for achieving the role as the biggest software maker in the world, but by attaching appropriate accountability alongside that responsibility, we can force threat protection and breach prevention on software that the entire world must use in lieu of competitive alternatives.

By removing excessive trust from our systems and networks, isolating our critical assets, amplifying the identity authentication process, and reducing the overall attack surface, we will have removed 50% of the breach risk, and made cyber-criminals jobs much harder.

By eliminating products and services provided by our number one adversary, we will put an end to pre-engineered leakage and impossible to detect hardware vulnerabilities.

By throwing the IP thieves out of our tents, we will stop the theft of the key technologies that our adversaries now use against us.

By modernizing cybersecurity laws, we will remove the handcuffs that currently hinder law enforcement from apprehension and prosecution. In addition, we can open the doorways to a controlled offensive or forward defensive cybersecurity program at the national level, so that targets and victims can identify and seize bad actors in the process of committing their crimes.

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By establishing mandates (vs recommended) national security rules, we will assure that every organization is building and managing their IT and OT systems in accord with best practices that have demonstrated their ability to increase resiliency while decreasing risk. One mandate can cover Ransomware attacks, by preventing the payout, but also providing insured coverage for the damage recovery, adjusting for negligence and attendant liability, within a year of the attack under the jurisdiction of a special court.

By insisting on a mutual sharing of information and intelligence, private industry will have access to signals and behavioral data, now protected which will enrich new product design and development.

By an instituting an aggressive AI/ML Manhattan project, we will be able to expand the concept of a YCombinator with a specific product focus, aggressive funding, curation, vetting and guidance from experts in those disciplines. It took only 4 years and $2 billion ($40 billion in 2022 dollars) to produce FatMan from

whole cloth – it should take half that time and twice the money today.

By forcing insurers to provide and align their coverage against a standard for proper defense and controls, the burden is transferred to NAIC and FIO, forcing an actuarial proxy that will mature over time, yet set consistent expectations for both insurers and insured.

By penalizing arguably the historic software cybersecurity offender with the widest impact, we will remove baseline vulnerabilities from the software infrastructure under all of our personal and commercial computing and operational capabilities.

If we do all of this, will cybercrime come to an end? Will we reverse the asymmetry within our current attacker/defender dynamic? Will we achieve world peace?

Of course not, BUT ….

It will begin a reversal of course and shift momentum to our team.

History Instructs.

World War II history revives similarities between then and now, and underscores the possibility, and in fact, the outright probability, of success in reengineering that asymmetry and creating a more even playing field.

Professor Richard Overy, the famed British historian reminds us, that Hitler's foreign minister, Joachim von Ribbentrop, while in his prison cell at Nuremberg, wrote a brief memoir in the course of which he explored the reasons for Germany's defeat. He picked out three factors that he thought were critical: the unexpected 'power of resistance' of the Red Army; the vast supply of American armaments; and the success of Allied air power.

British forces were close to defeat everywhere in 1942. The American economy was a peacetime economy, apparently unprepared for the colossal demands of total war. The Soviet system was all but shattered in 1941, two-thirds of its heavy

industrial capacity captured and its vast air and tank armies destroyed. This was a war, Ribbentrop ruefully concluded, that 'Germany could have won'.

Soviet resistance was in some ways the most surprising outcome. The German attackers believed that Soviet Communism was a corrupt and primitive system that would collapse, in Goebbels' words 'like a pack of cards'.

The evidence of how poorly the Red Army fought in 1941 confirmed these expectations.

More than five million Soviet soldiers were captured or killed in six months; they fought with astonishing bravery, but at every level of combat were out-classed by troops that were better armed, better trained and better led.

This situation seemed beyond remedy.

War Speeds Reversal.

Yet within a year, Soviet factories were out-producing their richlyendowed German counterparts the Red Army had embarked on a thorough transformation of the technical and organizational base of Soviet forces, and a stiffening

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of morale, from Stalin downwards, produced the first serious reverse for the German armed forces when Operation Uranus in November 1942 led to the encirclement of Stalingrad and the loss of the German Sixth Army.

Within a year.

The Russian air and tank armies were reorganized to mimic the German Panzer divisions and air fleets; communication and intelligence were vastly improved (helped by a huge supply of American and British telephone equipment and cable); training for officers and men was designed to encourage greater initiative; and the technology available was hastily modernized to match Germany’s.

The ability of the world's largest industrial economy to convert to the mass production of weapons and war equipment is usually taken for granted. Yet the transition from peace to war was so rapid and effective that America was able to make up for the lag in building up effectively trained armed forces by exerting a massive material production superiority.

Were greed and personal gain, drivers of this transformation?

Did some American leaders supply materials to the enemy?

Absolutely, as they always must be for humans that are required to run faster and lift more weight under difficult and dangerous conditions, require additional motivation, beyond a thank you and a handshake.

This success also owed something to the experience of Roosevelt's New Deal, when for the first time, the federal government began to operate its own economic planning agencies; and it definitely owed something to the decision by the American armed forces in the 1920s to focus on issues of production and logistics in the Industrial War

College set up in Washington.

Character Trumps All.

But above all it owed a great deal to the character of American industrial capitalism, with its 'cando' ethos, high levels of engineering skill and toughminded entrepreneurs. After a decade of recession, the manufacturing community had a good deal of spare,

unemployed capacity to absorb (unlike Germany, where full employment was reached well before the outbreak of war, and gains in output could only really come from improvements in productivity).

Even with these vast resources at hand, however, it took American forces considerable time before they could fight on equal terms with well-trained and determined enemies.

This gap in fighting effectiveness helps to explain the decision taken in Washington to focus a good deal of the American effort on the building up of a massive air power. Roosevelt saw air strategy as a key to future war and a way to reduce American casualties.

At his encouragement, the Army was able to build up an air force that came to dwarf those of Germany and Japan. At the center of the strategy was a commitment to strategic bombing, the long-range and independent assault on the economic and military infrastructure.

Bombing provided the key difference between the western

Allies and Germany. It played an important part in sustaining domestic morale in Britain and the USA, while its effects on German society produced social disruption on a vast scale (by late 1944, 8 million Germans had fled from the cities to the safer villages and townships).

The debilitating effects on German air power then reduced the contribution German aircraft could make on the Eastern Front, where Soviet air forces vastly outnumbered German. The success of air power in Europe persuaded the American military leaders to try to end the war with Japan the same way.

City raids from May 1945 destroyed a vast area of urban Japan and paved the way for a surrender, completed with the dropping of the two atomic bombs in August 1945. Here, too, the American government and public were keen to avoid further heavy casualties.

Difficult decisions then; impossible decisions now.

German Mistakes.

There were weaknesses and

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strengths in Hitler's strategy, but no misjudgments were more costly in the end than the German belief that the Red Army was a primitive force, incapable of prolonged resistance, or Hitler's insistence that America would take years to rearm and could never field an effective army, or the failure to recognize that bombing was a threat worth taking seriously before it was too late.

As we live in an almost completely digital universe, requiring but not yet achieving digital literacy, it is important for every American to review its WWII history against the current backdrop of this existential, cybersecurity threat; this undeclared declaration of war; this real and present danger to our lifestyles, freedom, beliefs, ideology, social and cultural fabric and our entire future way of life.

Military arrogance and political hubris put Germany on the path to a war she could have won only if these expectations had proved true.

There is still time, and given that we can accept what must be done, steps and processes like we’ve described will pave the way for action, but only if we are all committed to change.

There are lots of moving parts, economic, tribal, social, political, geophysical, psychological and logistical that fall into the stew of wartime decisions. But they all end up in the bowl.

There are so many similarities in our current story when compared with our wartime history dating back only 70 years, we would be foolish to ignore them. Learning from history, however cumbersome, rather than repeating every step, is always a good strategy for survival.

Changing the world has been a sink-hole of human energy for hundreds of years – changing ourselves is much harder to do, because it starts with admissions we are unprepared and perhaps unable to make, but not unlike other habits, one step leads to another.

Professor Richard Overy’s brilliant historical novel, “World War Two: How the Allies Won” is a great place to start.

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STEVE KING, CISM, CISSP

Cybersecurity Marketing Leader | Direct-to-Human Marketing Strategist | Founder, CyberEd.io | Managing Director, CyberTheory With two decades in the cybersecurity realm, Steve King stands at the forefront of innovation and education. As the driving force behind CyberEd.io's Professional Development Academy, he's revolutionized cybersecurity training for over 1.25 million subscribers annually, creating an ecosystem of continuous learning tailored to current threats.

Previously instrumental in the evolution of Information Security Media Group's (ISMG) Marketing Advisory division, Steve's expertise extends to his role as Managing Director of CyberTheory. Here, he synergized his deep understanding of cybersecurity with human-centric marketing techniques, providing a holistic approach to market strategy, positioning, and outreach for cybersecurity vendors.

Above all, Steve's passion is evident: Empower the defenders, ensuring a secure, connected world.

His legacy includes pioneering cybersecurity solutions and mentoring the next generation of experts. Accredited with CISM and CISSP through ISACA and distinguished by multiple cybersecurity patents, King is also a celebrated public speaker, podcast host, Forbes Technology Council Member, and published author.

Always open to collaboration, King embodies the spirit of continuous growth and knowledge-sharing in the everevolving world of cybersecurity.

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ISN360™REPORT© 1

The BRICS have represented, in the vast world panorama, a rather important autonomous development phenomenon for hundreds of millions of people who, also thanks to them, have come out of absolute poverty benefiting from that growth trend that without the pandemic in the last decade would have been around +3.6 percent, despite all the challenges, definitely higher than in the 1980s and 1990s, which had recorded an interesting +3.3 percent.

From a certain point of view it comes to say that what is happening today has in fact been triggered by Western political short-sightedness, which with the introduction of the "BRIC" concept triggered that process of cooperation and collaboration among policy makers of these different countries on issues ranging from agriculture, trade, environmental policies, national security and international finance, which nowadays has translated into something, into an alternative economic alliance capable of challenging, with very good chances of success, Western hegemony.

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The real problem that needs to be addressed at this point consists of trying to understand whether what is on the horizon, whether near or far, will really be ameliorative of the current situation or will consist of the usual changing of the guard to which history has all too often accustomed us. The present paper, while objectively impossible to be exhaustive, aims to frame the history of this something we call BRICS in order, if nothing else, to take stock of the situation and identify the key questions that await dutiful and necessary answers.

From BRIC to BRICS: the antecedent, the forward potential, and the drift from BRIC to "IC" Much is said these days about the BRICS, but perhaps few are aware that the current group is the independently evolved fruit of a 2001 document entitled "Build Better Global Economic BRICs " published by Goldman Sachs, the large U.S. investment bank that first used the acronym BRIC to refer to a pool of four developing economies that had, according to analysts in the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs led by Jim O'Neill, the potential needed not only to attract substantial investment, but even to reshape the new world economy-and not only that.

As expected, between 2000 and 2009 the pace of growth in emerging economies outpaced that of developed countries for the first time thanks primarily to the four engines of future global growth identified by Goldman Sachs Economic Research in 2001. The first formal summit of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia in 2009; South Africa joined the BRIC, mutating it into BRICS as recently as 2011.

Interestingly enough, the document drafted under the leadership of Jim O'Neill not only predicted that within 10 years the weight of the "BRICs"-particularly China-on world

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GDP would grow significantly, and consequently so would the overall economic impact of the four countries' fiscal and monetary policies, but also that-as O'Neill himself expressly suggested-it would be exceedingly appropriate to modify the G7 in such a way as to incorporate representatives of the BRICs into it. Unfortunately, although the average annual growth rates recorded by India and China in the period 2000-2009 were 6.89 percent and 10.35 percent, respectively, the suggestion had no effect because of the short-sightedness of U.S. and Western policy in general.

The opulent West merely looked at the BRICs (and since 2011 the BRICS) solely from the perspective of investment opportunities, leaving them to coordinate with each other in full autonomy both in terms of the most appropriate choices to be made on common policy issues and challenges and in terms of what operational choices culminated in the establishment of the BRICS Development Bank, a financial Trojan horse aimed at mobilizing the resources needed to support infrastructure and sustainable development projects in both BRICS countries and other emerging and developing markets of strategic interest.

In a way, the BRICs, first, and the BRICS, later, for a long time were able to benefit, almost away from prying eyes, from the little attention paid to them by the world of global politics and the Western world in particular, which, having given way to the world of global finance, meant that these countries were considered only from the point of view of economic potential, that is, only as geographic areas to be exploited - in accordance with the usual and still entrenched neo-colonialist mentality - either: for relocations of productive activities in order to benefit from less stringent labor disciplines, less oppressive tax regimes as well as significantly lower labor costs (wages): all of which

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promised to maximize profits from direct investments, and for planning purely speculative activities that were highly profitable Little or no attention was, in this context, paid to the possible effect of the BRICS on the world governance that with too much confidence the West almost until the beginning of the third decade of the new century believed was and would remain firmly in its own hands, so that for long years the warnings of those who had long turned their attention to how the whole thing was developing were worth little, urging a change in the framework of global economic governance, as done, among others, by the aforementioned Jim O'Neill, who had entrusted such assessments, in unsuspected times, to one of his important, though little-known articles of November 30, 2001, entitled "The World Needs Better Economic BRICs" that appeared in No. 66 of Goldman Sachs' Global Economics Paper Jim O'Neill's merit, as unheard of as any self-respecting Cassandra, was that he was among the first in the world to have realized the enormous potential-even and especially political-development potential of the BRICS (potential defined and consequently assessed using, as he himself has stated in subsequent papers, the standard methodology of macroeconomics, according to which real economic growth is determined by two variables: the size of a nation's labor force and the productivity of the economy).

Recently, in this very regard, Jim O'Neill wrote, recalling those early moments more than 20 years ago, "Because of the size of the population, the associated labor force, and the scope for productivity catch-up, it was fairly easy to show that the potential growth rates of the BRICs were higher than those of most advanced economies. Our analysis was not intended to show that all of these countries would continue to grow at their

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potential. That, frankly, is unrealistic and not our message," a reflection complemented and commented on by pointing out how, in the light of events and in the context just framed, the second decade of the 21st century has been quite at odds with the first to the point of turning out for all four BRIC countries to be even better than the scenarios outlined in 2001, so that, despite the disappointments made in the years immediately preceding the recent conflict, in the end what has developed has been perfectly in line with what had been with foresight globally preconceived.

This is at least as far as India and China are concerned, since for both Brazil and Russia the economic results for the period 2010-2020 turned out to be rather disappointing as a result of the so-called "commodities curse" being in both cases countries characterized by economies too dependent on the global commodities cycle for their sustainable development ie, to put it another way, too single-issue, too commodity-focused and, as such, not very diversified and to such an extent 'statist' that Jim O'Neill joked about the acronym he himself created by suggesting that, perhaps, at the time it would have been more appropriate to speak of "IC" rather than "BRIC." The current strength of the Chinese economy, its political dynamism, its diplomatic resourcefulness, its adaptability to different situations, its ability to deal unbiasedly with different contingent situations and not to get directly involved in various strategic disputes, while playing a decidedly increasingly active role in different contexts, have meant that Beijing is realizing its full potential, as evidenced by a couple of rather significant figures: the Chinese GDP, which as of 2019 exceeded 14.000Bn USD, a figure more than double that of the other BRICs in aggregate, currently, despite the current geopolitical crisis brought about by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the effects of the Zero-Covid19 policy, boasted a GDP of 18.321 Bn USD, a figure slightly more than three

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times that of the other BRICs, confirming the positive trend that is in addition to the projective trend for 2023 of +6.3 (estimated as of June 2023) according to data provided by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

Another aspect of no small importance should certainly be added to these considerations: the role of the BRICS as an emerging economic power in international development cooperation, which in the last decade have been seen progressively increasing their financial and technical assistance, as well as establishing distinct modes and instruments of cooperation with developing countries and beyond, adopting-especially China-operational choices that have influenced and are still heavily influencing global development, especially in low-income countries, by virtue ofalthough with all the possible distinctions and differences already seen-their strong economic dynamics and their territorial and demographic dimensions.

For too long, unfortunately, as we shall see, this latter sphere of operation has been evaluated in various quarters, albeit with some reservations of insiders, with a little too much benevolence to the point that BRICS operations have been understood as utopianally and sincerely inspired by and marked exclusively by the principles of mutual respect and non-interference as reiterated on several occasions by the founders of the aforementioned New Development Bank BRICS (NDB BRICS), the Shanghai-based financial institution born out of the interstate agreements reached during the Sixth Summit of BRICS member countries held in Fortaleza, Brazil, on July 15, 2014, giving effect to a decision made during the Fifth BRICS Congress held in Durban, South Africa on March 27, 2013, which, among other things, provided for an initial capital amounting to USD 50Bn (divided into 500.000 shares with a unit value of USD 100,000, of which 100,000 corresponding to a paid-up capital of USD 10Bn and 400,000

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corresponding to a callable capital of USD 40Bn) initially equally paid by the five founders: currently the NDB has an authorized capital of USD 100Bn and among the shareholders it also sees the presence of three other minority shareholders, such as Egypt, Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates.

In other words at present, as can be seen from what is published on the bank's relevant website, the NDB is set up as a structure that to the initial capital of USD 50Bn associates a strategic reserve capital fund to cope with possible currency crises and short-term liquidity pressures called the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) capable of raising the operational potential to as much as USD 100Bn: something to which China contributes USD 41Bn, Brazil, India and Russia an amount of 18 each and South Africa 5Bn. The BRICS action was officially born because of the lack of internal reform in the International Monetary Fund and the refusal of the more developed countries to implement a more equitable distribution of US and EU voting shares in favor of the developing countries (whose proposal remained stuck in the US Congress), disappointed expectations for a rebalancing of the balance in favor of the BRICS (note: of the BRICS and not in general of the developing countries, which means of those who had shown themselves capable of expressing similar entrepreneurial and capital management capacities) the same proceeded to set up alternative institutions to those born of the 1944 Bretton Woods agreements, including the IMF and the World Bank whose genesis, for those who know its history, already saw a heated confrontation between the British and the U.S. vision, where the latter aimed more at making the two institutions a financial "armed" arm perfectly analogous to that developed by China in recent times: when they say that "the student has far surpassed the master"!).

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The real problem of the West today can be understood by going to the way Italy still thought it could solve its structural problems in 2011. The questions, implicit or explicit as they were, at that time were more or less these, or of this tenor: "Will the Chinese enter ́Eni or ́Enel?" and "Can they aim for a stake in Finmeccanica, or the port of Genoa?" and again "In exchange for a presence at the Btp auctions, could they enter ́Unicredit thus taking over from Qaddafi?"... questions that were never formulated asking "But ultimately, why should the Chinese do this? For us? For our belonging to that hypothetical genius that gave birth in a time now long gone to the great Roman Empire, i.e., the birthplaces of such geniuses as Leonardo, Michelangelo, Titian, Vivaldi, Palladio ... Dante Alighieri, despite the fact that it has since degenerated into the current political plethora? Perhaps to allow Italy to perpetuate its dreams of glory? To what end?

So it was that those who hastened to interpret the RomeBeijing contacts as "a vote of confidence" by the Chinese government in Italy's solvency, i.e., in an act of deference, took a blunder, the same one that Spain's Jose Luis Zapatero fell victim to in due course when he too soon announced maxibuys of Spanish bonds by China, which in retrospect turned out to be rather modest.

In order to understand what has happened between then and now, we need to start by reconstructing the map of Chinese investments in the world at the time, as well as Beijing's financial strategies and their entanglements with the geopolitical interests of the world's second-largest economy: such a way of proceeding allows us to understand Beijing's modes of operation and the reasons for adjustments in the relative strategy.

The result of the analysis leads us to consider two adjustments strategically characterized by that gradualness

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that allows not to jeopardize the stability of the global economic system: 1) diversification from the USD to other currencies; 2) the shift from government bonds to equity packages in industrial enterprises, possibly of strategic importance to China avoiding mistakes such as the one made when, in the midst of the systemic disaster of 2008, China improvisedly entered the U.S. market bringing, on balance, relief to U.S. banks at the price of burning its own capital that in no way should have been risked by penalizing Beijing's resources and stability.

The financial backbone of this chess game consists of two financial giants of which: 1) the first is the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) of the People's Republic of China, an administrative agency of the State Council in charge of drafting rules and regulations governing foreign exchange market activities, as well as managing state foreign exchange reserves resulting from commercial assets accrued over years and years of activity and amounting to figures in the range of thousands of Bn USD (3,200 in 2013, 3,000 in 2016 according to data provided by the People's Bank of China). Prudent diversification of monetary uses led the aforementioned institution to favor mixes that in the early years of the second decade of the 21st century contemplated U.S. government bonds, German Bunds and Japanese debt securities because of the soundness of the issuers, so that for a long time China's repeated announcements of massive bond purchases of Mediterranean countries have always turned out to be exaggerated, as in the aforementioned case recorded in July 2010 when rumors of support for Spain had an ephemeral impact on the markets due to

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the fact that the exposure to Spain stood at just 500 Mln ten-year bonds: a choice similar to the one made also in 2010 -in October- with reference to Greek Bonds. In this last case of real there was something else, namely the entry of the Chinese logistics giant Costco in the port management of Athens: an operation that allows us to approach the other dimension of the Chinese strategy: the more aggressive one.

2) the second financial giant in this case is the China Investment Corporation (CIC), Beijing's sovereign wealth fund (as such directly controlled by the government ) whose resources always come from the same source: the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. Founded in 2007 with about USD 200Bn in assets under management, one has that figure growing over time from USD 941Bn in 2017 to USD 1200Bn in 2021. The difference from SAFE lies in the different operations in that the CIC has greater freedom of action and different functions that make it the spearhead of China's penetration into the global economy due to a charter that assigns it a "business orientation and purely economicfinancial objectives." Notwithstanding the fact that CIC is configured as any company-and that as such it is accountable to its shareholders to whom it is expected to pay a dividend-, it has that all this does not preclude that the ultimate goal of its activities may contemplate strategic objectives such as, for example, the ́acquisition of advanced technologies, managerial know-how, and bridgeheads in promising markets, i.e., in activities where China has yet to gain a competitive advantage.

That of the China Investment Corporation is a rather interesting story since it represents the story of the West's unwitting suicide-a strong phrase that perfectly accounts for the reality of the facts in that what has made it possible for Beijing to set up

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its nancial war machine is the gradual increase in its exports to the West thanks to foreign direct investment coming into the country, investment of a nancial kind but also of know-how: it is this that has enabled China to accumulate foreign exchange reserves in frighteningly greater quantities than it needs to defend itself against possible external nancial shocks, currency employed not only to gain control of entire Western production and nancial sectors, but also to increase its political in uence by nancing the public debt of its "enemies." It is no coincidence that in the early days a large part of its reserves China invested in the United States.

In 2007, just to mention, 70 percent of its assets were denominated in USD, and China was second only to Japan in the amount of U.S. securities held-something that allowed the Beijing government to assert itself even in the political and monetary spheres vis-à-vis Washington when the latter timidly tried to do something to extricate itself. Emblematic was what happened when on several occasions the U.S. government tried, clumsily and unimaginatively, to put a limit on Beijing's advantage derived from the low value of the Chinese currency relative to the USD, low in that it was abundantly undervalued: something that favored Chinese exports while penalizing U.S. exports.

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Well, when the U.S. has historically tried, for example with Donald Trump in 2016 -but not only-, to make its voice heard by threatening the imposition of countervailing tariffs on imports, all Beijing needed to do was to emphasize the importance, however it was, of the "friendship" between the two great countries testi ed also by the trust placed by the Chinese establishment in the U.S. potential, a con dence concretely evidenced by Beijing's massive investments in U.S. public debt (coupling this with the admittedly discreet emphasis on Beijing's control of a sizable slice of the world's rare earths market), to bring the White House back into line: holding, in fact, a sizable

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share of a country's public debt is tantamount to holding the power to in uence its politics in no small measure, not to mention control of one of the most important commodities of the current historical moment.

For the rare earth issue it is worth opening a small parenthesis whose meaning and weight we will clarify shortly.

As of today, China unquestionably represents the world's leading producer of rare earths, mostly from a single mine, Bayan OBO, located in Central Mongolia and estimated to account for a total of 32 percent of world production despite the fact that its market share over the past decade has been gradually shrinking from 98 percent in 2010 to just, so to speak, 60 percent in 2021.

What matters most, however, is China's market share in the next stage of the production chain, that of rare earth separation, which sees Beijing controlling as much as 85 percent of the market, not to mention China producing as much as 90 percent of the rare earth-based magnets that constitute the single most important use in terms of demand for these elements. But China's primacy does not stop there since the country has about 1/3 of the world's reserves that a combination of favorable geological conditions (i.e., high concentrations) and humid climate make it easier and more cost-effective to exploit.

What is more, the presence of other metals in the deposits (e.g., iron) and the possibility of deriving rare earths as a byproduct has in the past further incentivized the exploitation of these deposits.

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The reason for all these considerations lies in the fact that there are quite a few elements emerging from all this -more will follow- that make us understand how that of the BRICS is a forward-looking partnership, a kind of alliance of convenience, a having to proceed together more out of operational necessity than a real communion of purpose capable of giving birth to

something lasting, a kind of complex strategic key, not at all uni ed, used to open up a gap in the dense network of Western global relations, a key suitable for exploiting all possible weaknesses in the system still in place while holding itself ready to leave the group as soon as forces allow.

An example of this follows from the consideration of two separate facts of which:

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1) the rst is the March 29, 2012 BRICS summit in New Delhi as that was the venue where the issue of possible support for the Eurozone was planned to be addressed. Raising the issue was the then Minister of Finance of Brazil, Guido Mantega, who was fully aware, as were the other partners in the group, of the strategic importance of the matter. As Jean Quatremer, a Brussels correspondent, had to write on September 14, 2011, in the pages of the Paris daily Libération: "As the Europeans are incapable of solving the Eurozone crisis that has been going on for two years now, the rest of the world is mobilizing to rush to the aid" of the Old Continent by virtue of the knowledge that "a collapse of the currency of the world's second economic power would have devastating consequences, not only for the European Union but also for the rest of the planet." Now the singular circumstance that speci cally led historically to the mobilization of the BRICS -and not only-, highlighting the weight and strength achieved already at that time by countries that until a few years before represented the weakest part of the international economic- nancial landscape, it was that Greek debt crisis that motivated to action even the United States came to the point where the then Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner, was present at the informal meeting of the Eurozone Finance Ministers, in Wroclaw, an attendance highlighted by the usual Jean Quatremer with the following words: "This is the rst time a foreign politician has attended a European

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meeting, which shows that Americans doubt the ability of Europeans to get along with each other." The reason for such relevance here of the topic introduced stems from the fact that, except that the Greek crisis was in all likelihood the result of a clever bluff engineered by the United States in cahoots with a part of the IMF to create a situation of heavy embarrassment for a German leadership all too eager to want to mutate the European banking-currency union into a cohesive and autonomous state entity, the different dynamics espoused by the BRICS and the U.S. allow us to appreciate how sometimes different directions can lead to seemingly synergistic collaborations. What more than anything else has determined the U.S. and BRICS to move are, respectively: a) the desire to reassert U.S. leadership in Europe by emphasizing its limited sovereignty, and b) the desire to take advantage of a situation of structural weakness in order to make good use of their capital both to enter America's quintessential geostrategic and geopolitical efdom and to make the whole world appreciate their economic strength hoping to mutate into geopolitics.

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2) the close relationship between the U.S.-based Goldman Sachs doing business through the Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC, as brought into the public domain by a scoop in the Financial Times in late August 2023 ( see article titled "Goldman Sachs bought UK and US companies using Chinese state funds " of August 29, 2023) having as its theme how the large U.S. nancial institution leveraged a fund created in collaboration with the Chinese sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corporation (CIC) to buy a number of U.S.- and U.K.-based companies at a time of growing tension between Beijing and the West:

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something that allowed, among other things, not only for the emergence of a collaborative relationship that has been going on for quite some time (in some ways of the kind, somewhat unfair to NATO partners, already in place with Russian oligarchs despite the sanctions regime imposed by Washington on the allies), but also Pachino's dubious position vis-à-vis its BRICS partners, a behavior that of China that can be explained only by accepting the hypothesis of a double game by Beijing aimed at bragging with the BRICS about a determined opposition to U.S. global monopolism only in order to achieve one of two solutions: a) the construction of Chinese global monopolism through the skillful exploitation of the BRICS, viz. b) to exert pressure on the White House and Congress aimed-when possible-at enacting a global Sino-US bipolarity analogous to the Russian-US bipolarity of Cold War times.

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In this regard it is useful to consider what was expressed by Kevin Christ, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the RoseHulman Institute of Technology , who in a letter sent to the Financial Times and published by it on Sept. 7, 2023 under the title "Symbiosis between China and Wall Street is nothing new," verbatim wrote: "The revelation that Goldman Sachs has been funneling state funds from China to buy U.S. companies should surprise no one. Not to be too cynical, but linking capital providers to those who need capital is what investment banks do. What is surprising, however, is that when the deal was rst announced in 2017, Goldman Sachs' then-CEO Lloyd Blankfein argued that such deals would help address Washington's concerns about a U.S.-China trade imbalance by investing Chinese capital in U.S. companies. This reverses economic logic. Foreign capital in ows into U.S. nancial markets

facilitate the U.S. trade imbalance, not the other way around.

This follows from basic national income accounting: when capital in ows exceed out ows, U.S. net foreign investment is, by de nition, negative and, in turn, implies a negative trade de cit. Perhaps, however, the use of faulty logic by the CEO of an investment bank in this way should come as no surprise. For years, the interests of the U.S. nancial sector have complemented those of Chinese policymakers. China's exportled growth model has depended on there being willing foreign buyers for their products, and the U.S. nancial sector has pro ted greatly by facilitating a debt-based economy that has made this possible."

Words with an unambiguous and unimpeachable meaning that must be interpreted where Kevin Christ makes his doubts explicit in light of economic considerations to the exclusion of the political valences of technically wrong choices even if strategically understandable in light of a different reading such as the one proposed above by commenting on the whole.

In this sense it is also worth examining the nature of the transactions dealt with: as many as seven of which include Aptos, a retail technology group; Visual Comfort & Co, a lighting company; Boyd Corporation, a California-based manufacturer whose products include cooling systems used for machine learning and in drones, whose investment in 2019 Reuters reported; Project 44, a startup that tracks global supply chains and whose founder revealed the Chinese fund's investment in WSJ Pro in 2021; Cprime, a consulting rm that provides cloud computing advice; Parxel, a drug testing company as well as Nettitude, a cybersecurity rm that provides services to the British government.

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In 2021, Goldman used the partnership fund with CIC to help nance the purchase of LRQA, the inspection and information technology unit of the U.K. maritime classi cation group Lloyd's

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Register. LRQA performs inspection and certi cation services and operates in the aerospace, defense, energy and healthcare sectors, among others. The Financial Times dossier rightly pointed out how the private equity funds used helped sovereign wealth funds to accumulate indirect stakes in companies operating in critical sectors while Western governments, under a U.S.-based directive, increased their control over foreign direct investment and in particular that from China.

Two notes complete the picture of the strange operation of the rather autonomous, apparently, Goldman Sachs and China's CIC. According to the Financial Times dossier in 2021 again Goldman Sachs used its partnership fund with CIC to help nance the purchase of LRQA (the inspection and information technology unit of the U.K. maritime classi cation group Lloyd's Register), which performs inspection and certi cation services and operates in the vital aerospace, defense, energy and healthcare sectors, among others. A tidbit and a question to close this dynamic: since Taiwan Life, Taiwan's oldest insurance company; the Danish pension plan ATP; the U.S.-based pension manager of the Minnesota State Board of Investment as well as several U.S.-based charitable foundations have also invested money in the fund, it begs the question of who really holds political power in China and the U.S., but also what relationship there is between the political and business worlds globally in order to understand what weight to give to the statements of political leaders.

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The most important aspect to keep in mind with reference to this matter consists of the fact that the Goldman-CIC fund, let's call it that for brevity, is not the only bilateral fund that the CIC has set up with international investment groups to make deals in their home countries, helping to increase its exposure to Western companies and maintain relationships that go beyond the of cial restrictions or outright bans established by the various executives.

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To understand for what reason, by virtue of what interpretative logic of the whole media querelle of these months, Goldman Sachs has maintained an ongoing relationship with the CIC to the point of motivating the bank's CEO, David Solomon, to meet with CIC Executive Vice President Qi Bin and President Peng Chun again on March 28, 2023 (according to a statement by the CIC itself) is surely something very important to put us in a position to understand the future developments of the current geopolitical crisis and the real weight of the BRICS. A sure starting point for such a re ection is the Financial Street Forum 2021 Annual Conference held in Beijing on October 20, 2021 in the framework of which the CIC hosted the parallel forum on "Two-way Openness and Financial Cooperation."

Beyond the usual ritual calls for international cooperation and collaborative spirit, invoked as the synergistic keys to solving global problems and as such harbingers of that shared and generalized prosperity indicated as the indispensable source of the greater planetary balance that should be the quintessential goal of the more just New World Order that everyone pays lip service to building, what resonated of most interest in the opening address of the proceedings delivered by CIC President and CEO Peng Chun was the emphasis on the fact that China would be working, thanks in part to the action of the CIC, to build a new model of development supported by a vast market and a strong industrial support system, so as to facilitate external movement and give more vigor to global recovery.

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This appears to be of considerable importance since, in fact, it stigmatizes and corrects the model of global governance adopted by the West to date, namely, that which starts from the centrality of the growth and development needs of the countries of the Western bloc at the expense of all the remaining areas of the Planet that would be considered only as sources of the resources necessary for the implementation of this objective, as

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well as locations of production facilities with a view to exploiting the most favorable employment and tax dynamics useful to enhance, according to neocolonialist logics of an almost feudal nature, the return on invested capital and know-how transferred.

In practice, however, these are just ne words, good enough to garner consensus and better dispose the disadvantaged areas of the planet to welcome the initiatives proposed by China and the BRICS, initiatives promoted for the sole purpose of replacing the West or to join it in the management of everything: said in other words, to motivate the rats of the usual areas of exploitation (Africa in primis) to commit themselves, in exchange for a revisited dream, to the construction of the usual trap destined for them, which for the occasion is presented as a suitable system of protection of the rats themselves from external threats in a revisited capitalist game of the parts.

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Every epoch has had its myths and every epoch has been characterized by a new phrasing good for conveying and making acceptable by disguising the same behaviors.

Specifically, unfortunately, the current model of development is essentially always based on the realization of the same fundamental steps that have characterized both the liberal and Marxist economic-political models, the realization of which has always passed through the affirmation of the centrality of an economy based on trade and industrial production and no longer (as was the case in the eras prior to the French Revolution) on agricultural production, in accordance with the fact that the source of power is no longer related to the possession of land but of movable capital. Completing the picture is a development plan that goes through the promotion of ever more urbanization as well as suitable industrialization, the mechanization of the countryside, the acquisition and control of areas for the extraction of raw materials and energy

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sources, as well as the acquisition and control of lines of communication and markets.

The only difference: the management of surplus-value, of that surplus-value whose legitimacy no one, neither Marx nor the liberalists, has ever questioned, that surplus-value that no one has criticized being the primary source of power, of that surplus-value that matters little whether it is managed by the polycentric entrepreneurial sector (the liberalist model), or by the sole entrepreneur represented by the state that everything operates in the name and on behalf, at least in words, of the people.

The polycentric model currently proposed traces in full the previous models and in this sense is unlikely to lead to an upheaval in the power relations between those who hold and manage capital and those who, willingly or unwillingly, live on the sidelines of all this apparent epochal upheaval: in fact, it seems that everything has to change so that nothing actually changes, to cryptocopy "The Leopard" by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa.

So it is somewhat understandable at this point why, during the 2021 keynote address session, guests shared their remarks on the usual usual topics such as "challenges and opportunities for global financial cooperation," "how to better promote the sustainable recovery of the world economy through finance," and "ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investment philosophies and the long-term of institutional investors"-and why the speakers at this session were mainly political figures and senior executives from financial institutions, including: Jean-Pierre Raffarin, former Prime Minister of France; Gerhard Schröder, former Chancellor of Germany; Lord James Sassoon, Honorary Chairman of the China-Britain Business Council; Ren Hongbin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of the

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People's Republic of China; Hu Xiaolian, President of the Export-Import Bank of China; Liu Jin, Vice Chairman and President of the Bank of China; Senior Official of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange; and John E. Waldron, President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs.

The remarks that emerged from the discussion, remarks that emphasized, as clearly stated in the press release issued by the CIC on Oct. 21, 2021, as much on the fundamental role of financial cooperation in integrating supply chains and industrial chains in the post-pandemic era (an area in which China is still, as seen, working hard by strengthening openness and constantly improving its business environment as well as creating more opportunities for foreign investors) as well as on the fundamental importance of collaboration among major countries in promoting two-way financial market opening in an effort to build a more tightly intertwined and stable global economic circulation aimed at enhancing the sustainable recovery of the global economy, in fact represent China's attempt to impress upon the West the importance of preventing its entrenchment in old-fashioned monopolistic positions from leading to a confrontation harbinger of unpredictably negative outcomes for both China and the entire West.

From this point of view, even in the light of current events, the BRICS appear to be more of a pressure factor for Beijing, a specter to be used to induce the United States in the first place to conduct a negotiation with the Chinese establishment on the basis of the remarks made in 2021 now sketched, rather than a really viable avenue, if only because of the ongoing dispute with India and, at the time, also with a Russian Federation currently somewhat yoked to the Chinese bandwagon.

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In the wake of the recent Financial Times scoop, it is worth pausing for a moment to consider not only what topics were "animatedly" addressed during the panel discussion on the sidelines of the 2021 meeting -themes among which we find "new modes of cross-border investment cooperation in the post-pandemic era." "new bilateral funds and their models of cooperation," and "how new bilateral funds help facilitate international industrial cooperation," but also which speakers definitely made a good showing there, as reported by the aforementioned CIC press release: Senior executives from Goldman Sachs, Eurazeo, Charterhouse Capital Partners, Investindustrial, Nomura Securities, Triton, and DORC Dutch Ophthalmic Research Center; Peng Xuehai, Chief Economist of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology; Huang Zhaohui, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Management Committee of China International Capital Corporation Limited; Shi Lei, Chairman of Chengdu Industry Investment Corporation Limited.

Undoubtedly topics and interlocutors of high weight, also political, that should be monitored with less distraction than recorded so far: the scoop of the Financial Times is praiseworthy, but it is not admissible that we have to wait for a scoop to realize that the official narrative, filled as it is with statements and retractions of this or that politician, be they even the President of the United States or the Chinese one (in truth much more measured and shrewd), deserve the time they find having well understood that geopolitics is in fact economics and finance.

In recent years, and as far as we have observed this has continued even now that apparently the tones of the EastWest confrontation seem to be more heated because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine (a bloody and battered land that in any case is by no means the quintessential battleground of that confrontation-clash that we are trying to frame here as

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simply and objectively as possible) the CIC has initiated a whole series of bilateral funds with high-level financial institutions in the target countries, including the China-US Industrial Cooperation Fund, the France-China Cooperation Fund, the UK-China Cooperation Fund, the Japan-China Industrial Cooperation Fund and the China-Italy Industrial Cooperation Fund: all funds that have played an active role in deepening economic ties and industrial cooperation, a deepening that it is unthinkable could be stopped because of the, all in all, marginal Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The proof came in June 2023, the year of the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Europe Strategic Partnership, and made known through a Financial Street Forum communiqué issued in September 2023 titled "Strengthening China-Europe Financial Exchanges and Exploring Mutually Beneficial Paths" under which there were two roundtable discussions on the topics "Strengthening China-Europe Economic Cooperation "and "Promoting ChinaEurope Green Financial Cooperation and Investment Facilitation."

The topics were not chosen at random just as it was not coincidental that the communiqué made no mention whatsoever of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which, according to the communiqué released, does not seem to have been mentioned at all by any of the Western guests-a circumstance that we can assess as wanting to see the ongoing war as being other than the participants, as is only right since it is essentially a clash between the two pseudoideological dinosaurs the United States and the Russian Federation.

Over the past four decades, since China established diplomatic relations with the then European Community in 1975, the topics of bilateral relations have largely focused on

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trade activities that over time have required constant reshaping of the constantly growing trade ties as well as investment programs have continued to grow. China is currently the EU's largest trading partner having overtaken the United States in 2020.

Officially, the stressors in current EU-China relations stem from evolving realities among which we have the relentless rise of China, which has shifted the balance of power in the international system, arousing growing disquiet in that West that first -with all too much superficiality- promoted globalization in the same spirit that prompted the United States to promote the Breton Woods Accords, but not as shrewdly as those who do not divest their productive apparatus by relocating it as if the relocation areas were provinces of the illusory empire that emerged from the "rubble" of the Cold War, and later woke up from the sleep of reason when it (but I would do better to speak explicitly of the United States, for Europe counts for very little) came to realize that it had developed a structural dependence on China that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its poor handling in the West exacerbated in terms of what concerns existing geopolitical tensions, even triggering widespread anti-Chinese public opinion.

The icing on the cake came with the competition between the U.S. and China under the Biden administration, an administration that is clumsily attempting, with little success, to reshape to its own exclusive advantage the role of the EU in world politics and, consequently, Brussels' relations with Beijing: the silence on the "War in Ukraine" issue speaks volumes about the chorus of opinion of the participants at the event and the round tables.

In fact, a constructive attitude that, in spite of everything, has produced an increase in China-Europe economic-commercial

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cooperation, which in any case should not make us think of a China glad to see the birth of a real United Europe.

Interestingly, on June 26, 2023, President Xi Jinping, in order to promote economic cooperation between China and Europe in various fields, establish a China-Europe financial exchange mechanism and help both sides achieve long-term stable economic growth, while accelerating the internationalization process of think-tanks, the Beijing Financial Street Service Center and The Beijing Financial Street Research Institute, in cooperation with ICBC Europe and Bank of China Europe, held a seminar on "Strengthening China-Europe Financial Exchanges and Exploring the Path of Mutual Benefit and Cooperation." for those who know what it means, talk of internationalization of think-tanks is perhaps the most interesting element of the great European lag on a topic where Italy is a good tailwind.

The topic has been dealt with by several scholars among whom we include, for example, for Italy, Mattia Diretti , a Neapolitan researcher, who still in 2013 noted its insufficiency due to the distance separating the Italian phenomenon from the American and international experiences. A phenomenon that has experienced a strong development especially in the years between the end of the Cold War and the end of the first decade of the 21st century. The main all-Italian anomaly, in fact, is that these centers often originate directly from the idea of individual political leaders and, unlike in other countries, the resulting thrust is inverse to the desired one: in other words, it proceeds from politics to society and not vice versa. Thanks to the data, it was possible to detect in the Italian case the strong presence of political and personal, rather than cultural, interests, which is also evident from another very important fact: Italy stands out from the international context, in fact, for its scientific productivity index, which here is practically nil.

And again, "The low internationalization index of Italian think

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tanks is, at this point, as indicative as it is motivated: the only area in which there seem to be contacts with the rest of the world is that of bodies concerned with foreign policy, or other sporadic cases of organizations that are well embedded in highly internationalized circuits, such as Trento's EURISDE." A more far-reaching analytical work, in that it embraces the whole of Europe by manifesting the profound why of President Xi Jinping's call for the think-tank internationalization process to march signi cantly faster, is the two-volume publication "EUChina relations at a crossroads, Vol. I: Looking for a new modus vivendi" (2022) and "EU-China relations at a crossroads, Vol. II: Decoding complexity, mitigating risk" (2023), carried out under the EU & China Think-Tank Exchanges project with the participation of the European Policy Centre (EPC), EGMONT The Royal Institute for International Relations, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) and the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).

As an example, consider the ndings of the aforementioned study regarding the challenges of supply resilience, the improvement of which is aptly presented (see "EU-China relations at a crossroads, Vol. II: Decoding complexity, mitigating risk" Pg.13) as "a sensible response to the growing uncertainties in the unof cial practices and rules of globalization. Ideas such as friend-shoring, the U.S.-led Mining Security Partnership, or the supply chain pillar of the IndoPaci c Economic Framework (IPEF) seek to mitigate the protectionist backsliding to which such practices might lead and to avoid a scenario in which each individual actor aims for selfsuf ciency and seeks to produce on its own whatever it needs, to produce on its own whatever it has decided to deem strategic or essential."

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The reference to the U.S. protectionist philosophies threatened

by Donald Trump at the time and the threats of blocking imports

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from China aired by Biden, in line with the blocking of gas imports from Russia, make a good showing in a context where the "Stop the world I want to get off!" seems rather silly before it is counterproductive.

While for a long time China has been one of the few countries to pursue an anti-protectionist policy it is now one of many that have given rise to such a dynamic, with a growing number of actors adopting unilateral or multilateral frameworks and/or policies to improve the resilience of their supplies.

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To better understand China's strategic disposition, let us read again what is stated again on page 13 of "EU-China relations at a crossroads, Vol. II: Decoding complexity, mitigating risk": "However, these strategies still have three fatal aws. First, these groupings tend to be exclusive and formed by a few advanced economies, thus reinforcing the division between advanced and developing countries. Securing supplies is also a geopolitical game that cannot be won without cooperating with developing economies. Second, policies to make supply chains more resilient tend to focus too much on diversi cation as the solution that can solve all problems. This is not the case.

Without losing sight of the importance of diversi cation, more attention should be paid to recycling, storage options, and a conversation with the population about the need to change consumption patterns. If the policies adopted by the EU and other countries work, commodities are likely to become more expensive, but this is not being properly communicated to the population. Third, unlike the United States and China, the EU cannot afford a protectionist turn. Like South Korea and Japan, the EU cannot be completely self-suf cient in the production of necessary goods. Therefore, it must constantly strive to preserve forms of rules-based cooperation with other countries and keep protectionist ambitions in check. The development of policies to safeguard supply resilience has led to a rethinking of subsidies in market economies. An approach long practiced in a

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relatively centralized economy like China's, subsidy is one solution to what can be a costly and unnatural process for market economies: making supplies more resilient. Subsidies make it possible to target economic areas that are considered strategic, in theory mitigating the cost of change for rms while increasing the success of the attempt." and again, this time for explanatory purposes "For example, Europe's weakness in chip production would be unlikely to be overcome by the actions of private rms alone, which is why the EU adopted the Chips Act to stimulate investment in the sector, increasing the chances of making European chip supply more resilient. However, China's supposed success in adopting subsidies for targeted industries often leads to hasty conclusions. Industrial policies do not always work, even for a China that, in theory, has poured large amounts of capital into them. Therefore, industrial policies should be adopted with a phased approach and continuous evaluation of progress to avoid issuing funds that do not lead to the much-needed results."

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The centrality of the issues addressed accounts for the presence, both at the seminar held by President Xi Jinping and at the rst of the two panel discussions mentioned above, the one entitled "Strengthening China-Europe Economic Cooperation," of such distinguished gures, Chinese and foreign, as Hu Hao, Chairman of the Academic Committee of the Financial Street Forum and former supervisor of the China Investment Corporation; Li Chao, Secretary of the Board of Directors and Chief Accountant of Lingyun Industrial Co.Ltd.; Jin Jingyi, Head of Treasury of Schneider Electric China; Lu Tong, Director of Accounting of Airbus (China); Chen Li, Head of Treasury of ThyssenKrupp (China) Investment Co, Ltd, and Zhou Jian, Founder, President and CEO of UBTECH Robotics; Wang Yiming, Deputy Director of the China Center for

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International Economic Exchanges; Ye Yanfei, former Senior Inspector of the Policy Research Bureau, CBIRC; He Dexu , Director of the National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; and Wang Naixiang, President of the China Beijing Green Exchange; Bas Pulles, former Deputy Ambassador of the Netherlands to China; Gerhard Stahl, former Secretary General of the European Commission and researcher at the German IFO Institute to whom should be added representatives of enterprises such as Lingyun Industrial Co.Ltd.; Schneider Electric (China) Co. Ltd.; Airbus (China) Enterprise Management and Services Co.Ltd.; ThyssenKrupp (China) Investment Co. Ltd. as well as representatives of nancial institutions such as BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and HSBC, who also attended the conference and took part in the discussions: all this in the midst of crisis and seesaw contrasts also determined by the ongoing state of war as well as the ongoing dispute in the nancial sphere that is playing a crucial role in the current process of rede ning geopolitical balances.

In this context, the crucial role of the nancial sector appeared to be of paramount importance, which was examined with a particular focus on the foreign exchange authorities, all the while hoping that those authorities would be able to provide greater convenience and innovative policy to meet the reasonable needs of a market that is currently still, for the most part, monocentrically based on the USD and as such rejected by the BRICS, but not only.

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Continuing the examination of those aspects directly related to the process of internationalization of think-tanks that certainly see the countries adhering to the BRICS movement, as well as those that have allied themselves to it or are about to or aspire to ally themselves to it, more well-disposed and active, we impact the context of energy transformation whose continued advancement has introduced particularly erce competitive

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factors that push European companies to promote research and development and improve ef ciency in the Chinese market. In this process, cooperation with the nancial sector could effectively promote improved product services and further market expansion-something that assumes the hoped-for adoption of further policy measures to support trade and cooperation between Chinese and European rms by facilitating cross-border transactions in RMB brings us back to why the internationalization process of think-tanks is so central.

A similar context, in importance and prominence, that needs synergistic care and attention, as highlighted in the scope of work, is that of Artificial Intelligence and humanoid robot applications in smart factories and other business scenarios that show us a China and Europe characterized by multiple common interests and synergistic potentials to be developed in a timely manner starting with China's wide availability for everything from capital investment technological development, talent cultivation and application scenarios, while the EU possesses first-rate resources, excellent personnel and research facilities as well as advanced manufacturing industries. The complementary advantages of both sides' industrial scenarios can jointly promote the innovation and development of the global AI and robotics industry for a complex of sectors ranging from AI education to smart logistics, from smart healthcare to smart industries currently being promoted and implemented in Europe to provide AI services to the EU.

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Incidentally said, this additional aspect turns out to be crucial In a context of labor shortage and aging population where both sides have great potential in fostering innovative talent and cultivating industries of the future to stimulate industrial upgrading and innovative development.

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The occasion for the completion of the financial examination came with the second panel discussion, the one specifically dedicated to the promotion of Sino-European green financial cooperation and investment facilitation, which featured authoritative experts and industry representatives such as Ye Yanfei, former Senior Inspector of the Policy Research Bureau, CBIRC; Wang Naixiang, Chairman of the China Beijing Green Exchange; Zhang Youfang, Deputy Director of BNP Paribas China; Li Jun, Director of the Financial Institutions Department, CEO of Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank China; and Zhang Huifeng, CEO of Corporate Sustainable Development, HSBC Asia-Pacific, whose speeches were moderated by Yin Hong, Senior Expert at the Credit Approval Department, Head Office of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, former Deputy Secretary General of the Green Finance Professional Committee China Society for Finance and Banking.

The meeting was constituted as the, to say the least, perfect opportunity through which to highlight and appropriately emphasize, not surprisingly, China's great potential in the specific area of green finance and investment facilitation, areas that provide a solid policy basis for cooperation in the context of everything related to sustainable development (see carbon peaking and carbon neutrality).

In this context, the roundtable served to highlight how China and Europe are currently making rapid progress in Green Finance classification, financial system greening (ESG), climate risk avoidance (ESG-related Derivatives) and international cooperation, helping to promote high-level financial institutional opening in the context of which to introduce a whole range of opening policies in the insurance and banking sectors by welcoming European banks and insurance companies eager to invest in China, while encouraging Chinese financial institutions to expand in

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Europe. On investment facilitation, China encourages banks and financial institutions to provide financial support for crossborder mergers and acquisitions, cross-border investments, and supply chain suppliers.

As of the end of 2023, despite the persistence of certain reservations, the willingness for cooperation between China and the European Union is still evident, a willingness concretely evidenced by the EU being China's largest trading partner (in 2022, EU-China trade in goods reached EUR 856Bn, almost on par with that with the United States. Ten years ago it was less than half, and European imports from China in the same period grew twice as fast as exports to it, increasing the dependence of major European economies on the Dragon: emblematic is the case of Italy, which in March 2019, the first member of the G7 to sign an agreement with China as part of the New Silk Road, with the signing of the relevant memorandum aimed at an increase in made-in-Italy exports to Beijing, an increase that punctually occurred but unfortunately amounted to only 3 Bn compared to an increase in Chinese exports to Italy of as much as 26 Bn) and precisely for this reason, in combination with China, an indispensable geopolitical player for the development of sustainable growth -United States and security logics permitting- something that turns out to have been highlighted over the years even by formal acts such as, for example, the "Joint Classification Catalogue of Sustainable Finance," jointly drafted by the People's Bank of China and the European Commission, which has been applied in the markets pending the complete definition of the second part of the text whose drafting began in May of this year.

The reservations, apart from those related to the political consequences of the close trade link between the EU and China -derived from the fact that the EU is an active part of NATO-, are mainly dictated by security reasons which, as

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highlighted at the two-day European Council meeting in June this year, do not call into question the existence of an already widely emphasized common interest in pursuing constructive and stable relations, but do require that said link be somehow redefined with a closer eye on avoiding certain weaknesses that Beijing might want to exploit, in due course, to its own exclusive advantage.

In other words, the states of the Union have endorsed the line dictated in March 2023 by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who took care to call on member states to reduce risks (so-called de-risking) vis-à-vis the Asian giant, albeit never explicitly mentioned (but still the third largest market for goods from the European Union as well as the single market's leading global supplier), while being careful to avoid Beijing's weight in certain strategically important areas undermining the security and autonomy of the EU itself.

The reason for the need for this change stems not only from pressing and sometimes even excessive overseas desires, but from simply taking a few simple facts into consideration: 1) it is totally unacceptable by simple logic that, no matter what, the EU is dependent on Beijing, for what concerns extra-EU imports, to the extent of, just to mention, 100% for heavy Rare Earths, 97% for Magnesium, 85% for light Rare Earths, to the extent of 71% for Gallium, 67% for Scandium, 65% for Bismuth, 74% for batteries, electric accumulators and their parts, 82% for diodes, transistors and photosensitive semi-conductor devices, as well as 55% for vehicles with only electric motors for propulsion; 2) the mutual strong commercial interdependence of two regions is by no means a guarantee of the maintenance of relations over time, as the case of Russian gas amply demonstrated: the dependence of a large part of the Russian economy on gas, oil and raw material exports to

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the EU did not deter Moscow in the slightest when it came to moving its troops toward Ukraine and thereby enacting a full- edged economic attack on the EU and through it on the United States and NATO; 3) the systematic use, as we will see shortly, by Beijing of the weapon of economic- nancial dependence of a given geographic area and/or country in order to assume de facto economic and/or political control over it, or even just trade weight to protect its geopolitical interests (Lithuania knows something about this, which, having authorized the opening of a Taiwanese representative of ce in Vilnius, was punished by China with an embargo on exports, which thus collapsed by 80 percent) starting even from just the discriminating import/export differential, which constitutes an element of sure imbalance between the parties;

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4) Beijing's systematic use of billions of EUR for those transactions that go by the name of Mergers and Acquisitions - M&A (acquisition of equal or minority controlling stakes in a foreign company) or Green eld (involving the establishment of subsidiaries abroad), i.e., for investment transactions that are, if possible, an even more weighty component of China's strategy if one only considers the fact that between 2016 and 2017 Chinese companies invested a record EUR 85 Bn in M&A transactions in the EU, with a particular focus on major European port terminals. Heavy transactions that astonishingly were allowed when one even goes to examine the strategic relevance of some of them: indeed, the Chinese state-owned company COSCO's purchases of a 35 percent stake in the port of Rotterdam, a 40 percent stake in the port of Vado Ligure, and a 51 percent stake (which later became 67 percent) in the Greek port of Piraeus, which is now the fth largest in Europe by cargo

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handling, from the eighth place it held pre-Chinese ownership, can be traced back to those years. The bene cial effects for the EU of these Chinese investments are undeniable, but it is unfortunately also undeniable, as the European Parliament itself has pointed out, that such a type of operation is an indirect source of political leverage on Europe, so this is where, starting in 2019, the EU has introduced a framework to strengthen and coordinate European control action on incoming investments (see, e.g., the the Sinochem-Pirelli case) by inducing 2/3 of member states to have national legislation to block or place conditions on proposed acquisitions, by foreign entities, in sectors deemed strategic and of national interest.

Incidentally, however, it should be noted that there have also been cases of derogation from this European line of conduct, a derogation that would merit an investigation and examination that is unfortunately beyond the scope of the present work: this is the case that arose from the German government's decision to authorize the purchase by COSCO, of a 24.99% stake in the port of Hamburg; a decision that in some ways parallels that of the usual Germany on the subject of Russian Gas and Nord Stream1e 2, a decision and certainly not an 'oversight'.

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Now, leaving aside behavior 'by way of exception' so to speak, one has that the strategies adopted, or about to be adopted, by EU member states refer to a package of instruments that by the end of this year could accommodate, on the basis of what the European Commission itself proposed in mid-June with its deliberation on the "Strategy on Economic Security," also a control of export and outbound investment concerning a whole range of advanced technologies (such as quantum computing, arti cial intelligence and the latest generation of semiconductors).

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To sum up, from what has been said so far with reference to the current context, as well as in light of the above-mentioned numbers, it must be said that it was exceedingly logical for the Italian government to decide (despite recent Chinese pressure) to postpone the renewal of the memorandum of understanding with Beijing that expires in March 2024: all not only in deference to the aforementioned recent events related to the RussianUkrainian con ict, but also and above all to the fact that the EU at the moment is rather dangerously dependent on Beijing for both raw materials and the types of semiconductors and technologies essential for the current energy transition blatantly, it must be said bluntly, without having taken into account a reality that is badly read and worse interpreted.

The latter sphere, that of the Green Revolution, is, not surprisingly, the new battleground with a Beijing whose blatant position of strength is being somewhat curbed on the three main fronts (that of raw materials, that of semiconductors and that of enabling technologies for the green transition) by assuming behaviors, that is, by adopting solutions that are mostly still in the real stage of study and preparation as follows:

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1) on the raw materials front with, all in all, timid EU initiatives among which we can count the rst step taken with the Critical Raw Materials Act, the European Commission's proposal, presented in March 2023, which sets minimum targets for extraction (equal to 10 percent of EU consumption) and processing (40 percent of consumption) on European territory. Associated with this EU initiative should also be the rst step represented on the national front by the June 26, 2023 meeting between the Economy and Industry Ministers of Germany, France and Italy to de ne the rst common stocks of strategic raw materials;

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2) on the semiconductor front with the approval, on July 25, 2023, of the European Chips Act, which originated from a proposal made by President von der Leyen back in September 2021, and which aims to double chip production in Europe by encouraging lavish subsidies, such as the EUR 10Bn that the German government has agreed to give to Intel to build a maxi-plant in Magdeburg; and nally 3) on the front of enabling technologies for the green transition, with the muted passage (complicit in a scope far from initial expectations) of the European Commission's June 20 proposal for a European Sovereignty Fund, dubbed STEP (Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform), with a EUR 10Bn; all clearly late initiatives -as well as burdened by incomprehensible bureaucratic delays- and for this reason rather unripe (when not even inspiring tenderness for their naiveté when in the EU we talk about sovereign funds of 10 billion that are equivalent to nothing or almost nothing when compared with those in Asia and the Middle East of thousands of billion USD) whose effect on imports from China is struggling to bear fruit in the time necessary for the purpose, timeframes whose dilatation is likely to be further not a little increased by the black hole represented by the con ict in Ukraine, a black hole that at present promises to absorb, in an exorbitant and counterproductive way from all points of view, enormous resources that would be better allocated to something else as they constitute, in fact, only a blank check given to China, a China that demonstrates at every turn an ability to adapt to different situations that astonishes not a little especially for the timing of its response.

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Here it is, for example, that last year to the increasingly debated M&A deals the Dragon was able to counteract an increase in its

liking for new factory openings in Europe, to which it also anked a diversi cation of target sectors: Having waned its interest in the European infrastructure sector and exhausted to some extent the driving force having to do with green eld investments (which in 2022 surpassed, for the rst time, those in mergers and acquisitions), here is where Beijing has shifted to focus on the automotive sector (consider, in this regard, the new CATL battery factories under construction in Hungary and Germany to which, apparently, China would seem to want to quickly complement the establishment of BYD electric car plants in Europe), which last year accounted for more than half of Chinese investment in the EU: a percentage that rises to 72 percent if only green eld investments are considered.

Overall, then, on closer inspection the potential of SinoEuropean economic and nancial cooperation is enormous provided one pays attention to the risks associated with the various sectors such as those of the, already examined, ESG fund sector in general -and Chinese in particular- for a whole series of reasons related, at this time, also to the ECB's monetary policies that trace all too closely those of a FED (exchange rate risks) concerned about the health of the USD in a context of a currency war moved by the BRICS, led by that China in which the Corporate Governances of private companies are subject to the decision-making control of the central government and thus of that Communist Party that by law sees installed in every company one of its cells active in both decision-making and data security, whose out ows may not be totally reliable-and as such actually suitable for a risk assessment even if in recent times it has been reported, for example by J.P. Morgan, a generalized improvement.

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If we add to this the fact that, beyond much talk, China, which in any case plays a key role in the ght against the climate crisis, seems to have equipped itself with environmental policies that are predominantly oriented toward the preservation of nature-to

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meet the goals set by the Communist Party-rather than toward reducing emissions, it is safe to assume that all of Beijing's enterprise is more the result of a well-calibrated strategy useful for acquiring European capital that will somehow establish a partnership with Beijing that, while not an alternative to the one with Washington, at least counterbalances it with a co-interest that is as important as ever now, that is, at a time when the New Silk Road project is experiencing an impasse.

Impasse that an India for the occasion, but only in appearance, more "global" and less "provincial" has helped to exacerbate with the latest decision on the India-Middle East-Europe corridor that saw the light of day at the recent G20 in New Delhi scoring a victory of no real geopolitical weight for Indian PM Modi's foreign policy all the more so because, if in one respect the Bali G20 in 2022 had represented Xi Jinping's return to the international scene, the absence at the current G20 proceedings of both the President of the Russian Federation (on whose head hangs an international arrest warrant) and Chinese President Xi Jinping has effectively deprived Modi of the of cial investiture so long awaited by the all too provincial leadership in New Delhi, as in fact unthinkable because of frictions within the BRICS.

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Frictions that are bound to take on much larger proportions after the current launch of the Indian project called the Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment (PGII), which some have already dubbed "The Cotton Road," because not only does said project promise to provide a counterweight to China's vast "Belt and Road" (BRI) infrastructure corridor, also known as the New Silk Road, and to increase trade between India and Europe by up to 40 percent more, but also-and I would argue above all-because it in fact represents a victory for U.S. diplomacy, which has long courted Narendra Modi to be its own man in the Indian Ocean to be used to contain Chinese expansionism in the region.

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The proof of such a reading of the facts is provided by the low profile of Washington and its allies when they agreed to compromise on the final communiqué, which, for the occasion, was drafted without making the slightest reference to any statement firmly condemning Moscow and President Vladimir Putin in relation to the Ukrainian conflict in exchange for the commitment of all the signatories to the coveted final document -Russia and China included- to reaffirm the importance of and respect for territorial integrity and to work for a "just peace" for Kiev.

All in the name of utilitarian pandering to the, ultimately, petty ambitions of a Narendra Modi eager, blatantly for mere electoral purposes -projected as he is to next year's elections in the country-, to make the G20 2023 a 'showcase' to promote India's culture, its foreign policy goals and ambition to lead the countries of the so-called Global South.

All in all, a lot of fine words with an exotic flavor that, in light of the enduring internal conflicts between the various religious communities, as well as the prevailing backwardness of a vision of civil society in which the caste division of citizens is still a strongly penalizing factor for any model of development in the country, very little can represent a valid starting point for the construction of an acceptable model of leadership for that South of the world at the head of which India would like to place itself in order, it claims, to promote that social redemption, even minimal, which in the homeland, it seems, is far from being able to guarantee to its own citizens.

Be that as it may, leaving aside for the moment the implications of domestic policy issues on the Indian geopolitical front, one aspect that nationalist PM Modi surely cannot fail to further consider with ever greater care and attention, if it is his intention, as everything would suggest, to move India further along the path that leads to leadership in

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the Indian Ocean region-and the Global South in general-is surely that of relations with the EU. Relations for years characterized by tensions with Italy, but also by the stalemate on the free trade treaty between India and the European Union: all issues that in March of this year Narendra Modi had the opportunity to address with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whom he met in New Delhi on an official visit certainly scheduled not only to talk about India's position on the war in Ukraine, as indeed he had already done in previous weeks during similar meetings, also in New Delhi, with both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

As far as Italy is concerned, a country with which relations have been frozen for more than a decade after experiencing moments of high tension that even culminated in the banning of Leonardo from the Indian market, everything seems to be moving toward a new season of bilateral relations whose cordial climate is only in fruit of the convergence of very specific interests that for India concern the need to find alliances and support in an anti-Chinese function that go well with the Western desire to avail itself also of local disputes to contain (even militarily through interposed persons) Beijing's expansionism in the strategic Indo-Pacific area and not only in that; and for Italy they also contemplate the desire to exploit all those potentials of the Indo-Pacific theater that are well intertwined with the urgency, not only U.S., to bring closer those who so far have not only not openly opposed the Russian invasion in Ukraine remaining almost "equivocal" between Moscow and the EU-U.S. front, but (and this is what is most important) has opportunistically taken advantage of the situation to derive from it, with decidedly poor planning skills and less foresight, petty economic benefits such as those obtained by New Delhi by lending itself to the trade triangulations used by Moscow to circumvent sanctions

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concerning its export of energy products to, among others, the EU itself.

A practice, that of Indian triangulations, that continues to this day casting a heavy shadow over the real motivations for the protraction of a conflict, the Ukrainian one, that is turning out to be just a means exploited by the worst businessmen to make cash. Incidentally, in this unflattering panorama we find not only India, but also officially unsuspect such as Germany, which, as reported weeks ago by Welt Am Sonntag, would even send to Moscow, via Kazakhstan, Georgia and Armenia, materials that turn into weapons (dual use): for the series that there is no limit to the worst.

Be that as it may, beyond Italy's and Europe's specific interest in the market of the world's most populous country, it is in the specifics of the 210 Bn investment India has planned for the defense sector that the interest in the détente of bilateral relations with an eye to Italy's mutual geostrategic interests has been focused, as such and as a member of EU-NATO, and of India as a country in need of the most suitable means for patrolling and surveillance of both sea and land borders in the mountainous regions of the always hot border with Pakistan, a country, the latter, with which Moscow had excellent relations until the moment (August 2023) when apparently (according to the revelations of The Intercept renowned portal of investigative journalism), well-conducted U.S. covert operation led to the fall of the charismatic antiAmerican Premier, Imran Khan, and to the installation in Islamabad of a pro-American government that made the country a Western ally hostile to both Moscow and Beijing -and therefore itself a perfect tool for containing Chinese expansionism.

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Something that has certainly led to a reshuf ing of the cards in the hands of the Indian leadership, which up to that point had

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been able to play its own poker game by staking its importance to the West as the ultimate anti-Chinese bulwark in the region: what will happen from here on is unknown, but certainly Modi will have to pay more attention to the steps he will take to maintain that support of the West that is so necessary to him without prejudice to his role in what concerns the containment of Chinese aims in Africa where, thanks to the Italian government, the United States is trying to regain, through intermediaries, the ground lost in past years thanks to the reproposal made by PM Meloni -with the total support of the Biden presidency- of the so-called Mattei Plan.

In light of this last consideration, a question arises: should the coordinated Italian-US plan of action have the desired effects in Africa, in what position would the Indian government nd itself?

Would PM Modi's aims on the Dark Continent still be tolerated?

And again: once the pro-U.S. government position in Pakistan is stabilized and its role in Africa is regained, what would be the point, for what reason should Washington continue to support the New Delhi government since in such a case India would only be an unwelcome competitor moreover?

While waiting for events to provide the answers to the proposed questions, all that remains is to stick to the facts, and these facts speak to us, with reference to the subject of this paper, of BRICS being anything but a cohesive geopolitical entity and, as such, the bearer of identi able values and projects. In this sense, even certain statements, such as the one made by Undersecretary of Defense Matteo Perego of Cremnago, about the fact that India -can be a strategic partner for Italy also to determine our own position in the Indo-Paci c area, complementary to the partnership with Japan on sixthgeneration ghter jets," more or less leaves time to be found.

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China global lender of last resort and the Renminbi

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As is well known -and widely documented and verified- one of the BRICS operational areas of greatest strategic impact is certainly the economic-financial one, just as the instrument of greatest media impact turns out to be the monetary one at the very moment when the BRICS declare that they want to abolish the global primacy of the USD: an issue, the latter, particularly felt in many areas of the planet and especially in Latin America.

The rise of China to the role of great power, the evolution of the confrontation with the United States toward Cold War logic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have given new breath to those anti-Western and anti-American urges that the Dragon has been able to skillfully exploit to try to give birth to multilateral institutions that could be supportive of that complex of bilateral agreements that go by the name of Silk Road, as well as parallel and alternative to the IMF and the World Bank, among which the BRICS' New Development Bank stands out: the multilateral lender embodying the pugnacious spirit of those who, in various capacities, live and work for the sole purpose of attacking Western supremacy and downsizing the weight of the USD in international trade.

The program for 2023, according to President Dilma Rousseff's statement to the Financial Times during an interview given on August 22, 2023, envisaged for the current year the disbursement of credits for something like USD 8-10Bn taking care to favor those issued in local currency, forgetting that a vast market of international bonds in local currency has already existed for a long time and omitting to point out that, since the way of raising the necessary funds precludes NDB from accessing the USD markets due to the presence of the Russian Federation in NDB's capital, in fact NDB currently turns out to be yet another Trojan Horse of the Chinese strategy put in place to achieve the

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internationalization of the not fully convertible Renminbi, i.e. the Chinese currency.

As known and repeatedly reiterated in this particular situation, as well as in many others similar to it, the recurring official motivation for issuing loans in emerging currencies is to avoid exchange and interest rate risk on the USD: too bad that this motivation is simply specious since exchange rate risk is something absolutely and blatantly ineradicable. Not to mention the pretense of passing off NDB loans as credit disbursements without conditionality of any kind unlike in the case of money disbursements by the IMF and the World Bank.

In the end, as they say all knots come to the comb at the moment when from words we need to move on to deeds: the proof of the inconsistency of these populist propagandist statements came from the same recent BRICS summit in Johannesburg held on August 22-24, 2023, when none of the participants in the meeting was willing to accept the idea of the launching of a single currency judged inappropriate, at the moment, by all for obvious and obvious reasons, among which the first is the too much heterogeneity of the individual national currencies of departure. Silent is China, which relies on its substantial investments in the region, investments often on secretive terms and with very little market counterpart. In sum, China in such an environment has the opportunity to reap many benefits by avoiding taking on the risks that would accompany the rise of the Renminbi as a reference currency instead of the USD. In this regard, consider the undoubted advantage enjoyed by Beijing from the issuance of the famous Renminbi Swap lines used by Argentina to escape the USD "dictatorship" by saving USD to repay the IMF: a type of operation that in fact takes the form of a real loan provided by Beijing that blatantly defies the U.S. dollar more to proselytize than anything else to a cause whose ultimate goal is to

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replace the U.S., but without taking on the risks that being the holder of the global reference currency entails.

To better understand Beijing's position-and thus understand what game the Chinese establishment is playing when it speaks and acts as a member of the BRICS-simply consider the following.

At present, the USD still accounts for 45 percent of foreign exchange market trade, as well as 40 percent of trade settled through the Swift payments system (the same one from which Russia was cut off after the invasion of Ukraine), 40 percent of liabilities and nearly 60 percent of assets globally. A comparison of these shares with those of 2015 shows that the dollar's share has remained virtually unchanged because, at least at the moment undermining the USD's supremacy is easier said than done, though not impossible provided certain burdens are borne.

Over 95 percent of transactions between the Americas still take place in greenbacks, in Asia over 70 percent, and just under 80 percent globally if the Eurozone is excluded. By mid-2021, more than 61 percent of all foreign bank reserves were in dollars, along with nearly 40 percent of global debt.

Now, for a currency to establish itself as the world's reserve currency it is necessary firstly that its value remain stable during financial crises, secondly it is necessary that the credits accumulated in that currency always be collectible over time, thirdly that the country issuing that currency eliminate all barriers to the free movement of capital by virtue of a complete liberalization of the financial system, and in addition to all this that it budget even deep deficits in addition to the loss of control over capital outflows or inflows. To these conditions, which we could call operational, we need to add the existence of a rule of law that does not undermine trust in

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institutions and has clear and always valid laws and regulations that are not politically oriented.

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In other words, on balance, it needs to meet a whole set of requirements that China, while being the factory of the world, does not currently boast of in the slightest: a circumstance, this, that puts it in the position of not being able to impose its own currency as a reserve currency being a political technocracy dominated by the Communist Party, characterized by a closed financial system and lack of trade reciprocity, just to mention a few of the reasons why the establishment of the yuan appears impractical at the moment.

It is obvious that these considerations could be opposed by an endless series of objections descending from the fact that at the present time not even the USD and the United States would meet The requirements for making the American currency the reserve currency: Pity that when it became so in 1944 the conditions were almost all there and that the distortions have only come to be produced subsequently over the years to such an extent that the stability of the Dollar is something that descends predominantly from other factors including the United States being a still rst-rate military power not easily challenged

by China, Russia and India either individually or in association with each other.

In the light of these considerations, it seems clear why Moscow, too, ended up talking about the importance of developing trade relations based not on a new reference currency but on agreements on national currencies, declaring itself, through the mouth of Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, willing to consider at most the creation of a single system, a sort of unit of account for BRICS member countries and not a single currency as in the EU, an alternative to the USD in which to express the cost of delivering raw materials.

It goes without saying that the problems of trading with national currencies cannot be any different, and Russia experienced

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them on its own skin last May when Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov unintentionally betrayed the nancial dif culties that can be generated when an excessive trade surplus is accumulated in bilateral business in currencies that have no international recognition.

Setting aside for the moment the problem of nding an alternative currency to the USD, the question that arises at this point concerns what will happen when China has at its disposal an offensive military potential equal to, if not even greater than, that of the United States -and is strong with a wide network of economic entanglements spread permanently in the various areas of the planet comparable to that currently available to the United States.

Personally, I believe that Beijing has been asking this question for some time and for that very reason is giving rise both to extensive rearmament activity as well as to the construction of a dense network of countries and geographic areas stably linked to it through astute and varied investment planning and targeted credit disbursements.

In the present framework, therefore, the whole system of international aid has taken on a signi cance and value never seen before and at present not yet evaluated in the light of the considerations proposed here last, which I believe must be pondered as soon as possible to prevent the precipitation of the situation from catching us all rather unprepared.

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Their remarkable impact on the international aid architecture, especially China's, which has enabled Beijing to become a global lender of last resort, only on the face of it stands as a kind of milestone in the creation of a non-polar world, at least as far as China was concerned, which cleverly exploited a certain somewhat myopic key of interpretation that had developed in the West from the comparison of BRICS aid diplomacy with that of traditional donors, a comparison designed to highlight the practical and ideational role that

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BRICS could play as a group, in reforming the global financial system and in norm-setting processes in world politics.

In her romantic approach to the whole issue, Dr. Sharon S., of the Department of Political Science at St.Stephen's College, author in 2018 of a paper titled "BRICS: An Alternative Economic Alliance to Challenge Western Hegemony" tells us about BRICS as "an amalgam of unequal constituents representing diverse regions with contrasting capabilities.

Their effectiveness in working as a forum not aligned by a shared ideology, political structure or culture, but through the thread of egalitarian consideration is another area of comparison. Its effectiveness in generating trust among other developing and less developed economies on the planet as an alternative to the current system of international financial custodianship is another area of confrontation," words that I can only take in with no small amount of amazement when I come across the definition of BRICS as a "forum not aligned by an ideology" without in the least realizing that BRICS itself was and is itself an ideology disregarded at its core by its main component, that People's Republic of China, which from the outset promoted this fellowship for the sole purpose of bringing a systemic attack to the global leadership of the moment, to that U.S. and U.S.S.R. that constituted its ideological and strategic foundation.

Some, as mentioned, had noticed this peculiarity, this being the BRICS the Trojan horse by which China was preparing to embark on that long road that pointed and still points, with what chances of success remains to be seen, to the creation of a Chinese-led monopolar New World Order.

Among the voices out of the chorus we find that of the excellent Alessandro Merli, who back in 2013, in an article published in il Sole24ORE of September 6 with the title "Emerging economies on the attack of the FED, proposed a

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diametrically opposed view that identified the emerging countries as the new epicenter of the G-20's concerns about the world economy, putting the Eurozone crisis in dormancy, since from that moment on they would have taken to creating problems, as was logical, those that until a few months before were considered the most efficient engine of global growth.

The problem, the subject of the dispute that arose in 2013, as we will recall, was triggered by a choice made by the FED following the albeit weak recovery of the U.S. economy from the 2008 crisis, a recovery that prompted the FED itself to announce its intention to begin reducing -tapering- monetary stimulus ( where by tapering is meant the gradual slowdown in large-scale asset purchases - and thus the pace of expansion of the FED's balance sheet, also known as Quantitative Easing - QE).

At a time when the recovery was still fragile,-which, moreover, saw several emerging country economies in the grip of an unpleasant slowdown that had already in itself led to significant capital flight (see the case of Brazil and several Asian countries, with the exclusion of China) when not even further penalized by imbalances that only the soaring growth of recent years had masked-, an announcement such as the Fed's had come as a bolt from the blue in that that decision would produce capital flight from the most distressed emerging countries, rising international interest rates and devaluation of the currencies of those same emerging countries.

That circumstance, being something extremely destabilizing for many emerging countries, prompted the BRICS heads of state and government to denounce the "spillover," that is, the unintended negative consequences of the unconventional monetary policy of...."some" advanced countries, while at the same time calling for a normalization of monetary policy so

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that it would be "effectively and carefully calibrated and clearly communicated," so that it was in this vein that Brazil insisted, on behalf of all, on the inclusion of the word spillover in the final communiqué, an inclusion against which the United States fought in drafting to exclude it.

In the specifics of the dispute further criticism came, incidentally in an unusually explicit way, not only from Chinese Vice Minister Zhu Guangyao, but even from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who spoke of necessary normalization. On this occasion, the Russian presidency tried to mediate between the parties, and so it was that on the one hand Deputy Minister Sergei Storchak found a way to emphasize that, in the end, the monetary policies of the advanced countries had also had the positive effect of stimulating demand for imports of goods from emerging countries, and on the other hand Sherpa Ksenia Yudaeva admitted that the weaknesses of some emerging countries had also contributed to the shocks experienced in recent weeks.

It was at this point that the BRICS began to prepare to deal with any further turmoil on their own, and since the Monetary Fund's capital increase, which was supposed to give them a quota increase commensurate with their greater weight in the world economy, was blocked in the U.S. Congress, they launched the creation of a bank, the already several times mentioned New Development Bank, and an agreement to pool part of their reserves, to be used in case of emergency, in the Contingent Reserve Agreement (CRA), totaling USD 100Bn. Controversy over the impact of the Fed's choices (which U.S. President Barack Obama sent back to sender, as the administration's responsibility does not extend to the central bank, which is independent) overshadowed the Russian presidency's priority of launching the "St. Petersburg Action

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Plan for Growth and Jobs," with a series of measures to be taken by each country, and the important agreement on taxation to combat multinational corporate avoidance and automatic exchanges of information between tax authorities by 2015.

The extremely simple and contingent reasons that motivated Brazil to so strongly plead the BRICS cause were, as succinctly documented by an article that appeared in the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo on December 13, 2013 with the headline "Investimento brasileiro no exterior é o maior na década," essentially two, of which: 1) the first consisting of the fact that in 2013, (the year in which in the United States the Dow Jones index recorded +25%, while the Brazilian Ibovespa had to cash in a resounding -28%, correcting the data in light of the USD/ Real exchange rate change), more and more Brazilians (mostly investors with large assets, both corporations and individuals, who were seeking protection against the devaluation of the real by buying hard currencydenominated assets, mostly in USD) were crossing borders to invest in stocks, foreign currency and bonds, especially in the United States. In 2013, the balance of investment by Brazilians in foreign equities and fixed income securities as early as October amounted to USD 8 Bn, net of capital inflows, representing a volume 14 percent greater than that recorded in the same period of the previous year and constituting the highest in ten years;

2) and the second the result of the deterioration of the country's public finances and foreign accounts: a circumstance, this one, which could have led to a downgrade in the rating of the government and, in tow of

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this, of the main companies, could have resulted in a decrease in the amount of USD circulating in the country itself, a harbinger of a further worsening of the exchange ratio of the USD with the local currency: a circumstance, this, which in 2013 punctually occurred causing a sharp devaluation of the local currency, the Real, which ended up accumulating a loss of 12.8 % against the USD despite the counteractive action put in place by the Banco Central (the Brazilian Central Bank) consisting of the putting up for sale of something like 500 Mln USD per day to curb the revaluation of the US currency.

Brazil's Third-Worldism as witnessed by the Brazilian national press represented by the Folha de S.Paulo and the Brazilian authorities' decisive stance against the Federal Reserve's policy, without prejudice to the U.S. government's historical responsibilities toward the South American continent, should not mislead us as the analysis of the 2013 dispute provides an opportunity to demythologize the Third-worldist posture the BRICS has taken for years toward the West, in general, and the United States, in particular.

First consider what the Folha de S.Paulo reported when, speaking of investments in the monetary sector, it yes rightly pointed out how these in 2013 ceased to be a security after the shock to yields caused by the rise in the discount rate, decided in 2013 by the Central Bank as a measure to contain inflation, but at the same time it failed to point out how this had already been traveling around 5-6% on an annual basis for years: a fact that highlights how the inflationary effects generated by the FED's choices have more than anything else allowed the Brazilian government to offload inefficiencies and outdated responsibilities entirely of its own onto others for reasons that are entirely understandable in light of the fact that presidential elections were to be held in 2014, in October: a fact that contributed in no small part to the uncertainties

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worthy of better management than the specious controversy over whether or not to include the word "spillover" mentioned above.

The second element to be considered concerns the real weight of the FED's choice, which at all costs the Brazilian authorities wanted to pass off as a sort of attack on Brazil and developing countries, when in fact, from a market economy perspective it had only been a legitimate monetary policy measure taken in full compliance with market rules.

Supporting this reading is the Folha de S.Paulo itself, reporting the words of Joaquim Levy , CEO of Bradesco and former secretary of the Treasury -and Carlos Massaru, of Banco do Brasil, who had respectively stated, "Brazilians have had very good investment opportunities so far at home, both in the stock market and in fixed income. There was not this demand for diversification and protection with investments abroad, as there is now," and "Demand has intensified this year, thanks to stronger growth prospects in the Northern Hemisphere." two phrases that make us understand that the FED's wanting to pass off the FED's choices as a U.S. attack on the Brazilian economy was only the result of a domestic political need consisting of the need to somehow justify in the eyes of Brazilians a flight of capital useful to cover up the wretchedness of domestic economic management that precisely because of these "wretchednesses" had chosen a more suitable investment route.

If in addition to this one considers that despite the significant outflow, the amount that was being discussed represented just 2 % of the international reserves, that is, of the 376 Bn USD held by the Central Bank to prevent a massive outflow of money from causing a possible surge in the USD, it is understood that the object of contention had been at most a wake-up call for the use and consumption of the Brazilian

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establishment and people, given that, moreover, the fundamentals of the economy remained good and great was the anticipation for the major events of the following years: the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympics.

But this is not the end of the story because upon closer inspection, BRICS policy toward the countries of the Global South is not very different from that of the West even if it proceeds in a strategically different way.

Just in the middle of 2013 Thomas Traumann, Spokesperson for Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, announced his government's intention to cancel, or at least "restructure" (meaning by this term the reduction of interest rates applied or the extension of payment periods), something like 900 Mln USD of debt of twelve African countries: an initiative of which the main beneficiaries would be mainly three -and more precisely the Republic of the Congo (352 Mln USD), Tanzania (237 Mln) and Zambia (113.4 Mln), to which were to be added Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Saõ Tomé and Principe, Senegal and Sudan.

In addition to this body of initiatives, the Brazilian government had also decided to flank a whole series of other interventions such as investments and transfers of know-how in the agricultural sphere with the aim of recovering production with indigenous characteristics, given Brazil's undoubted expertise in the "tropicalization" of European crops. All this, of course, on the understanding that the Latin American country's presence in the sub-Saharan area was already at that time particularly incisive in the infrastructure sector and in the oil and mining industry, given that between 2000 and 2012 the value of trade between Brazil and the African continent had increased considerably from 5 to over 26 B USD.

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As is well known, Brazil's strategic approach to Africa, leaving aside the era of slavery, has always been broad and for the present time goes back to the time of the military regime: in the 1970s and 1980s thousands of Brazilians emigrated to Africa and the Middle East, working mainly in Mauritania-and it was to these areas that Brazil exported Engesa and Bernardini tanks, Avibrás missiles and small arms: all facts, these, testifying to the strong ties that exist between the South American country and Portuguese-speaking African countriesAngola, Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique, not to mention the dense network of partnerships in place with more than 20 countries on the Dark Continent, partnerships consisting of technical cooperation agreements concerning agriculture, food security, biofuel production and social programs against poverty.

Now beyond the rhetoric of brotherhood and communion of purpose among countries of the Global South, a rhetoric of which the Brazilian journalist and writer Mauro Santayana has repeatedly been a spokesman, who has often emphasized that there was no colonialist vision of Africa similar to that of Europe and the United States (a thesis, this one, ridden recently by Russia as well as China and which leaves time to be found since it is only the direct consequence of the objective material distance from the coasts of Africa and not a cultural disposition as the countries that have found themselves gravitating within their specific spheres of action can well testify), it remains to be understood what all this really means insofar as among the BRICS nations, competition on African soil has always been of no small importance, since they are all, in various ways, interested in benefiting from the immense natural resources of that Africa which, specifically, has represented-and still represents-for Brazil a major outlet market for the products of its manufacturing industry.

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The key question at this point is: what can be the repercussions of these economic measures? Is debt cancellation really helping, or is it simply the instrument of stimulus to incur more debt to meet-and a political investment to play on the ground of confrontation between the BRICS and the West? There is no shortage of negative examples in this regard: in Uganda, for example, after debt cancellation in the early 2000s, military expenditures increased by 24 percent, and since the Marshall Plan, no one gives anything away without having anything to expect in return.

In addition to its strictly economic aspects, the African continent will certainly be another target of Brazil's new strategic military project that will in no small measure leverage the many Portuguese-speaking African countries that, if properly motivated, could contribute in no small measure to its military expansion there: an expansion certainly already facilitated in the recent past as much by the South American Defense School (ESUDE in Portuguese), based in Quito, Ecuador, as by the Brazilian Navy, which has already been noted for its assistance to the African Union and collaboration with countries such as Cape Verde and Namibia already part of its strategic cooperation.

Very interesting in this regard, in several respects, is an article that appeared on July 19, 2022 on the official public website of the U.S. Marine Corps entitled "The strategic significance of Africa to Brazil."

The article, which refers to the "Naval Infantry Leaders' Symposium - Africa 2022" co-hosted by the Senegalese Navy and the U.S. Marine Corps' Europe and Africa Forces in Dakar, Senegal, July 6-7, 2022, was attended by Marines and sailors from 27 African nations, eight European allies and Brazil, a total of 36 nations among which the most significant

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presence was the Brazilian Marine Corps, or Corpo de Fuzileiros Navais.

Two major points of interest emerge from the article, of which: 1) the first refers to U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken's acknowledgement that the United States can no longer expect to advance global policy priorities without the partnership of African governments, institutions and peoples; 2) and the second concerning Brazil's relationship with the African continent.

Leaving aside all the aspects variously already considered, the one of greatest importance concerns the sharing of the South Atlantic for whose security the " Brazilian Navy collaborates with major African nations in areas of training programs, exercises and conferences to support increased maritime awareness and security. The Brazilian Marine Corps currently maintains an advisory group in Namibia and São Tomé and Príncipe focused on building those nations' Marine Corps and capacity building. In addition, the Brazilian Navy and Marine Corps conduct numerous training events throughout Africa to share knowledge and skills with partners.

This has strengthened relations in support of the collective security of the South Atlantic Ocean."

As Major Felipe Bayona, U.S. Marine Corps liaison officer to the Brazilian Marine Corps, pointed out, "This conference was a great opportunity for the Brazilian Navy and Marine Corps to showcase their involvement in Africa and their role as a regional leader in the South Atlantic."

In May it had been Brazil's turn: for the occasion, the South American country had hosted the Marine Leaders of Americas Conference, a NILS-A-like event where Marine leaders from across the Western Hemisphere gathered to discuss key

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security and defense topics leveraged by Brazil to show the world, through the participation of several African partners in the event, the level of cooperation achieved between Brazil and Africa and for the collective maritime security of South America across the South Atlantic Ocean: all in order to expand interoperability between Brazil, Africa and a multinational force, bringing together like-minded allies and partners from around the world to strengthen relations and facilitate collective defense and global security.

Given the wide network of relationships, Brazil's intent and the meaning Brazil itself attaches to BRICS is self-evident: not an unwavering faith in a unified project, but the time-bound strategic use of a partnership aimed at increasing its bargaining strength in a geopolitical arena where each is pursuing its own objectives. Interesting is the two-footedness of a Brazil that opposes the United States, but up to a point, as does India for that matter.

In the case of Brazil, in the light of the developments and dynamics examined, it is undeniable that the country has as its main strategic objective to expand wherever possible, in Africa as in the South Atlantic, that is, in the Indo-Pacific region, and it is equally difficult to deny that this change of geopolitical strategy from regional power to global power will eventually determine very precise choices even if not immutable over time. It was during Dilma Rousseff's presidency from 2011 until her impeachment in 2016 that Brazil began to shift its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific. But it was during Lula da Silva's presidency from 2003 to 2010 that Brazil's interest in Asia, and particularly the Indian Ocean, became increasingly important.

A no small reflection by Jim O'Neill

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Bolder and Smarter is the title of the nal paragraph of an interesting article by the aforementioned Jim O'Neill, Chairman

of Chatham House and former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Assets Management, entitled "Is the Emerging World Still Emerging?" which appeared on page 10 of the June 2021 issue of Finance & Development magazine published by the International Monetary Fund.

The article, which is notable for some rather interesting considerations relating to emerging market economies in the aftermath of the recent pandemic, is particularly noteworthy for some observations of rare objectivity expressly geared toward capturing some of the major criticalities of the larger economies, criticalities that have in fact forced the adoption of scal policies intelligently geared toward prioritizing public investment during the pandemic crisis and, as we shall see, geo-strategic in response to the crisis generated by the recent RussianUkrainian con ict.

With reference, in fact, to crisis situations such as the one in 2021 O'Neill rightly raised the problem posed by the need to make a real distinction between public investment spending and consumption spending, where "the former is likely to have a positive multiplier effect and should not be treated from an accounting point of view in the same way as public consumption spending." The reason for this lies in the fact that what amounts to a health threat imposes-in order to enable the full realization of growth potential-targeted investments that are in fact as essential to economic growth as much, if not more so than the nancial conditions themselves.

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Now, since a suitable framework for the implementation of smarter scal policy almost certainly requires strong national nancial systems, it is clear that continued dependence on a monetary system based on the U.S. dollar makes it dif cult to achieve the goal-a situation that, since despite the decline in the U.S. economy's share of the world economy the USD-based monetary system has remained the dominant system, one has

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that the world must follow the cyclical roller coaster of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, take on the consequences for the United States as well as the resulting global nancial conditions. Which, in other words, means that: "when the Fed tightens, emerging market nancial conditions tighten, often chaotically; when the Fed eases, the opposite happens."

The examination presented here is particularly important at this point, not so much because of its content, which is notable for its self-evident and obviousness to anyone with even a modicum of expertise in monetary policy, but rather because of the weight and role of its drafter, that Jim O'Neill, who certainly cannot be silenced by branding him with a generic charge of anti-Americanism.

It is certainly worth paying attention at this point to the illuminating closing words of Jim O'Neill's reflection, "There is a way out and someday this change will happen. The monetary system needs to evolve to better reflect the changing dynamics of the world, and until it does, the ability of emerging market countries to reach their growth potential will remain a challenge, though perhaps not as challenging as other national initiatives such as health and education systems. Many emerging market countries need to be bolder and smarter on these issues, and the IMF will obviously be at their side"-which, it seems, is exactly what is happening in recent months although, on balance, as we shall see, not in pursuit of the corrective purposes of the distortions plaguing the global economic and monetary system, but rather in reiterating them by mutating the sole beneficiary of the effects of this serious and highly penalizing anomaly in the global monetary system.

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The final sore point concerns the position taken by the IMF, which appears to be decidedly not in line with what Jim O'Neill advocates, as the facts amply confirm.

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BRICS 2023: the challenge to the West On Sept. 2, 2023, the International Dynamics Review Newsletter shared an interesting article by Habib Al Badawi -illustrious Professor at Lebanese University, known to be a profound connoisseur of Japanese culture as well as an accredited expert on International Relations- entitled "BRICS Expansion and the Quest for a Multipolar World Order" from reading which we learn-and this is the most interesting aspectnot so much what BRICS are, but rather how the same, their partnership is seen, is perceived in the world and particularly in that of developing countries for whom, it would seem, BRICS would appear to be the long-awaited heroes who have risen to prominence on the global stage for the sole purpose of challenging "the traditional dominance of Western powers in shaping the international order."

From this perspective for Prof. Al Badawi, the expansion of the BRICS would represent "a strategic opportunity for a more multipolar and equitable world order," the achievement of which would depend on "a shared commitment to these principles. In other words, it would appear essential that as the bloc continues to evolve and expand it remains true to its core values of multipolarity, economic cooperation, and reduced dependence on the U.S. dollar" as this would be the only way in which the BRICS could take a central role in the process of building a "new, more balanced and just global order in which the voices of emerging economies are heard and respected."

"The expansion of BRICS," the article cited, "is not simply about adding new members, but about fostering a sustained commitment to cooperation among member states. This expansion has been driven in part by the West's approach to isolating Russia, creating incentives within the BRICS to increase trade with national currencies or even," and this

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passage deserves our full attention, "contemplate a common currency."

This aspect of a common currency is an issue that in itself should make one's hair stand on end. The issue was made known by a CNN Brasil news agency that verbatim reads, "The President of the Republic, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, con rmed that the BRICS summit has decided to create a currency to facilitate trade among the member countries of the bloc, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Stating that he was in no hurry, Lula emphasized that the bloc's member countries have committed to study the possibility and resume the discussion at the next meeting of the group," and referred to a proposal made at the Johannesburg summit by Brazil itself, as reported in a Reuters note dated August 23, which in this regard also provides us with the rationale given in support of this initiative, which aims at a "common currency for mutual trade and investment as a means of reducing their vulnerability to uctuations in the USD exchange rate."

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As has rightly been pointed out by various of cials and economists the dif culties of putting in place such a choice are not few (moreover, the examples offered by the Euro and the CFA Franc are before everyone's eyes), and of all the reactions the most striking is the not coincidental no-comment from China that saw President Xi Jinping merely promote generically "the reform of the international nancial and monetary system." a reform from which, in my opinion, China would bene t the most only in the event that something similar to what happened in the West when the Bretton Woods agreements (1944) were established, amended in 1972 by the Smithsonian Agreement and, in some ways, perfected with the birth -warmed up by Washington- of a Euro aimed at controlling and curbing Germany's enterprise.

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I personally believe that, given Beijing's expansionist policy, surely a primacy of the Chinese currency in the presence of a single currency to which the other countries, and rst and foremost India and Russia, but not China, would adhere, would be by far the preferable situation since everything suggests that the great Asian country at this particular historical juncture is only aiming to replace the United States both geo-strategically and monetarily for the same reasons as its lifelong enemy.

This reading of the facts begins with a simple consideration regarding the strange cohabitation within the BRICS common house of an India, which advocates cooperation among developing countries, emphasizing South-South cooperation as a means of achieving shared development goals, and a China that seeks to engage with the world on its own terms, which often leads to tensions between New Delhi and Beijing.

In this regard, let us not forget the double-dealing of India, which has recently established rather close relations of even military cooperation with Washington, relations that have little or nothing to do with the intentions reaf rmed at the Johannesburg summit, but which have much to do with the deterrence that such an af liation generates on Beijing, i.e., New Delhi's competitor par excellence in the Indo-Paci c.

There is to be said that the Indian President, Narendra Modi, not satis ed with the positions achieved and the roles assumed so far, is continuing his round of consultations with the various leading gures characterizing the current phase of rede ning global balances. India's position, in fact, is quite delicate for a whole series of reasons that see it not coincidentally being at the same time:

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1) a client of considerable importance for Russian energy exports, which it subsequently reinserts into the global market to the delight of Moscow, but also of Putin's Western enemies who continue to need those supplies

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more than ever despite the ery proclamations of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; 2) a sincere friend of Saudi Arabia, with whom she makes no secret that she has excellent relations in what concerns trade, defense and energy sources, 3) and now also of the France of that President Macron put to the test, as far as his political expendability in the international arena is concerned after being put on trial by the international community for the serious events that recently affected France accused by many parties of racism.

On closer inspection, Narenda Modi's somewhat ambiguous stance more than anything else highlights the lack of a global vision worthy of a country, India, that at a time when it is showing that it wants to play a leading role in the new global order, is displaying a rather provincial strategic view of things that could ultimately prove fatal to it.

These macroscopic differences in approach, which several observers have con ned themselves to seeing only as the emergence of the generic need for the de nition of a carefully constructed strategy for BRICS expansion that would reconcile these divergent perspectives, appear in my eyes, especially in light of the reception accorded to them benevolently by Xi Jinping, as the primary source of an observation that I consider fundamental: why did Beijing, even before having addressed the aforementioned critical issues, give its green light to the planned admission of six new members, among whom we nd Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt and Iran, major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to which Argentina and Ethiopia must be added ?

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How is it possible that anyone among the most quali ed observers could have seen in this something that promises to

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increase the global in uence of the BRICS by merely echoing the words of the Chinese press since the success of the BRICS revolution clearly depends on the ability to act in unison, and the group of new members has made the group even more heterogeneous: in fact a mix of powerful middle-income and developing autocracies and democracies?

How was it possible that China's own President, Xi Jinping, called the expansion "historic" and that he himself was the main proponent of that expansion going so far as to present such an enlargement of the BRICS as a way for the global South to have a stronger voice in world affairs?

Among the more interesting views we nd that of Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America program of the Inter-American Dialogue who on this subject stated "It is not entirely clear what the new members of the BRICS will have to gain from their membership in the bloc" and again "At least for the moment, this move is more symbolic than anything else: it is an indication of the broad support of the global South for a recalibration of the global order."

I believe that the value of Margaret Myers' remarks lies in the two implicit questions embedded in her two statements in that, since it is well established that success can only accrue to this global front provided that the new members share the common values of multipolarism, economic cooperation and reduced dependence on the U.S. dollar, what needs to be promoted in every possible way is the holding of the anti-Americanism that agitates the consciences of the members of the fellowship, which, in this case, takes on the characteristics of a populist movement that rather than "pro-something" acts "against someone" whose characterization is symbolically represented by the USD.

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In fact, we are witnessing the repetition of an old pattern: the one already seen working at the time of the French Revolution,

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which on the present stage sees China playing the role of the big bourgeoisie of yesteryear (i.e., the economic-mercantile giant albeit political dwarf of yesteryear) that like that to emerge, to assert itself fully needs a large plethora of gregarious people represented by the variegated multitude of BRICS member countries, representing today the variegated populace of those in need of social and material redemption, as well as enfranchisement from the servitude to which for too long they had been forced by the quintessential holder of power, namely, the choleric-novelty duo of the time now embodied by those United States of America and the USD now pointed to as the enemy to be put down.

In this sense, to answer Margaret Myers' rst question, the heterogeneous multitude of the new BRICS af liates, as well as those who will join it from here on, will have mostly nothing or almost nothing to gain in the New World Order landscape if one excludes the rhetorical appellation of liberated comprimarios of the People's Republic of China, of "citizens" of the Chinese-led New World Order, just as "citizens" and no longer subjects were appellated the members of the new France born of the revolution of the late 1700s.

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The novelty looming on the horizon in this regard (i.e., that new world order advocated by Xi Jinping and which Beijing wants to pass-thanks to the development of clear and transparent membership criteria-for the balancing of economic strength and political alignment of BRICS member countries essential to maintaining internal cohesion within the bloc) is that the whole thing will never-according to Beijing's expectations- translate into a cohesive structure only in appearance and strong in a strategic alignment of nations that share the same values in words, but rather the fruit of ever-stronger economic and trade cooperation among the BRICS countries including the consolidation of trade mechanisms in local currencies and the exploration of the creation of a new currency for the BRICS

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countries that will recapture their dependence on the U.S. dollar in international transactions while increasingly linking their economies to that of a China that I see as disinclined to make the same mistake made by the U.S, namely, the promotion of a relocation of its primary industrial and extractive production activities by claiming for itself only the role of debt-driven engine of the development of others' economies and technological know-how.

Here it is that in this context, the talk, as made by Habib Al Badawi, of an implementation program of the BRICS project that passes for collaboration among the member states in the framework of suitable initiatives to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global oil and gas trade and to offer alternatives to traditional nancial structures takes on a meaning and signi cance quite different from what many optimists, such as Prof. Habib Al Badawi, have wanted to see.

And the same goes for what concerns the promotion of a true political unity within the BRICS in order to prevent bilateral differences and security interests between member states from translating into as many factors of weakness as has happened in the case of Europe: I doubt that Beijing wants to nd itself in the future in the condition in which the United States has found itself in recent times: That of having to face possible FrancoGerman strategic drifts and deviations resolved somehow and only as far as the short to medium, at most, term is concerned with the destruction of Nord Stream 1&2 and the undermining of the French establishment by, among other things, affecting its interests in Africa.

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In such a context, what weight can be given to the competition between China and India? And again: what role can we imagine for the Russian Federation? How much longer will the partnership between Moscow and Beijing last?

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Vladimir Putin's non-attendance in Johannesburg may have been quite signi cant in this regard. Does the of cial reason for the Russian president's non-participation in the proceedings say a lot about the reigning trust between the main branches of the BRICS or, as of cially stated, was it just a way to avoid a diplomatic incident between South Africa and the countries that signed the treaty establishing the International Criminal Court, known as the Rome Statute, in connection with the international arrest warrant issued by the Court itself?

The question is a legitimate one since, apparently, the expanding BRICS should be prepared to engage with the United States in a constructive manner which would entail the need for the BRICS themselves to demonstrate that they aim to complement, not undermine, the existing international order: a caution that made its own by Beijing could mean only one thing, namely, that in light of recent events that have seen the meeting of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger with Xi Jinping in Beijing and the replacement of Foreign Minister Qin Gang with someone decidedly more moderate , there would be on the part of Beijing a willingness to leave open the possibility of a new Yalta having as protagonists, this time, Washington and Beijing, that is, the possibility of arriving at a New World Order of the Bipolar type centered, from the monetary point of view on two exchange currencies such as the Yuan and the USD. It remains to be understood how all this can be reconciled with a monetary strategy synergistically and declaratively aimed at stripping the USD of its hitherto universally acknowledged role as the only absolute global benchmark duciary currency, which, given the U.S. debt situation, if implemented would be tantamount to undermining U.S. economic stability-and more than ever before.

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Highlighting the bloc's commitment to equitable representation of the global South in international forums and its desire to

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reform existing structures could pave the way for diplomatic dialogue and cooperation on common global challenges: it remains to be seen whether there will ultimately be the will and willingness to do so or whether all this will result in a global North-South clash of proportions unimaginable in the state of affairs but with a foregone conclusion that is nefarious for all.

While it is a given that China, with its economic strength and global in uence, plays a leading role in the expansion of the BRICS, it is certainly imperative for all to seek to capitalize on China's strengths while maintaining a balanced approach that ensures consideration of the interests of all BRICS members.

Working closely with China on initiatives to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and using China's diplomatic capacity to promote partnerships with other developing countries are strategic moves to enhance the global reach of the BRICS.

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Strengthening BRICS engagement with non-aligned and developing countries is critical. Showcasing the bene ts of membership and cooperation and emphasizing the bloc's commitment to addressing global challenges such as development, climate change, and economic inequality will expand the BRICS' in uence beyond its core members. The active pursuit of opportunities to collaborate with like-minded countries can only foster a more inclusive approach and demonstrates the BRICS commitment to a multipolar world, but more is certainly needed, and that something more consists of the BRICS' willingness to engage with the United States in a constructive way. In this sense, as someone said recently, "It is critical to demonstrate that BRICS aims to complement, not undermine, the existing international order. Highlighting the bloc's commitment to equitable representation of the global South in international forums and its desire to reform existing structures can pave the way for diplomatic dialogue and cooperation on common global challenges."

Prof. Silverio Allocca, Italian by birth, freelance Researcher and Analyst formerly of IBI World Ltd, is also a freelance journalist. Currently, articles from his dossiers written on commission for NGOs, Governmental Entities, Networks, Primary Law Offices, Economic Institutions… are published in six languages (in Italy in three online newspapers: Gli Stati Generali, ofcs.report and NGN-Nuovo Giornale Nazionale). He is a graduate of Theoretical Physics, Prof. of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and on-board automation for civilian and military aircraft, trainer of ENAC certified aircraft maintenance engineers (LMA), financial consultant expert in macroeconomic analysis; he writes on geopolitics, history, communication techniques and physics.

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