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PRD Robina Market Update 1st Half 2026

Page 1

Robina Market Update 1 st H a l f 2 0 2 6

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

OVERVIEW

In Q4 2025, Robina* recorded a median house price of $1,525,000 and a median unit price of $985,000. This represents an annual (Q4 2024 - Q4 2025) price growth of 17.3% for houses and 23.1% for units. Comparing Q4 2024 and Q4 2025, total sales decreased by -8.5% (to 75 sales in Q4 2025) for houses and -20.4% (to 78 sales in Q4 2025) for units. This suggests an undersupplied market for both houses and units, which combined with lower interest rates throughout 2025 have resulted in more price growth. Thus, now is an ideal time for owners to capitalize on their investments. Without any new ready-to-sell stand-alone houses planned from 2026 onwards, buyers need to act fast before prices increase even further.

CHANGE FROM LAST

YEAR

The Robina£ area will see approximately $2.5B of new projects commence construction from 2026 onwards. Residential $123.7M Infrastructure $108.4M

HALF YEAR

HOUSE SALE S Mixed-Use

HOUSE ME DIAN PRICE

$2.2B

HOUSE RE NTAL PRICE A key mixed-use project is Lakesview Residential Development Master Plan Stage 1-5, which will deliver 2,294 units and 914 Build-to-Rent Units.

UNIT SALE S UNIT ME DIAN PRICE UNIT RE NTAL PRICE

Key residential projects include:

$ MARKET CONDITIONS MEDIAN PRICE Q4 2025

$1.5M

MEDIAN PRICE Q4 2025

$995

SALES

$985K

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Q4 2025

29

28

HOUSE

U N I T

RENTALS

$850

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Q4 2025

18

16

HOUSE

U N I T

•

5 & 13 Robina Town Centre Drive (14 townhouses & 163 apartments)

•

Lakesview Townhouses Robina Precinct 1 (48 townhouses)

•

26-30 Ben Lexcen Place Townhouses (20 townhouses)

•

2 Fairway Drive Villas (3 villas)

While several projects are planned in Robina, the pipeline is concentrated in units/apartments and townhouses. There are no new ready-to-sell houses scheduled from 2026 onwards. The continued absence of new houses is expected to intensify the existing undersupply, putting more pressure on not only house prices but also unit and townhouse prices. Further, new stock takes time to build. Thus, in the short term, more price growth is likely.

2,545 Units/ Apartments

108 Townhouses


%

AVERAGE VENDOR DISCOUNT*

Average vendor discount reflects the average percentage difference between the first list price and final sold price. A lower percentage difference (closer to 0.0%) suggests that buyers are willing to purchase close to the first asking price of a property. 3.5%

2.5%

3.2%

2.0%

-0.1%

-1.0%

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

0.2%

-0.9%

0.0% -0.5%

1.1%

0.5%

0.0%

0.3%

1.0%

0.5%

1.5%

-1.3%

Change from Listing to Sale Price

3.0%

-1.5% -2.0% Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

House

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Unit

Average vendor discounts between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 have swung from a discount to a premium of 0.3% for houses, while units remained in premium territory at a higher level of 3.2%. Robina* is now a seller’s market, as buyers must offer higher than the initial listing prices. With no new houses planned, buyers must act fast.

The suburb of Robina has generally remained slightly more affordable than the Gold Coast Local Government Area (LGA) in median house prices, while median unit prices were broadly on par. However, in 2025, median house and unit prices in the suburb of Robina surpassed Gold Coast LGA for the first time, now a premium market. Most of the homes sold in Robina* in 2025 were in the most affordable price brackets, with 33.4% of houses sold below $1,349,999 and 30.6% of units sold below $799,999. This is good news for home buyers, especially considering median house and unit price growth in the past 12 months to Q4 2025. The premium market is still strong, with 27.2% of houses sold above $1.65M and 19.8% of units sold above $1.10M, benefiting owners looking to capitalize on their investments. Overall, there is a home for every budget.

MARKET COMPARISON

Robina House

Gold Coast LGA House

Robina Unit

Gold Coast LGA Unit

$2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

The market comparison graph provides a comparative trend for median price of houses and units over the past 5 years. The main LGA chosen was based on their proximity to the main suburb analysed, which is Robina.

$

PRICE BREAKDOWN 2025 UNITS SOLD

HOUSES SOLD

27.2%

Less than $1,349,999

33.4%

19.8%

$1,350,000 to $1,449,999 $1,450,000 to $1,549,999

30.6%

7.7%

12.4%

14.8%

$1,650,000 and above

$800,000 to $899,999 $900,000 to $999,999

$1,550,000 to $1,649,999

12.1%

Less than $799,999

$1,000,000 to $1,099,999

23.0%

19.0%

$1,100,000 and above


RENTAL GROWTH 2025 €

House rental yields in Robina¥ was 3.7% as of December 2025, higher than the Gold Coast (3.5%) and Brisbane Metro (2.9%). This is paired with a 4.7% growth in the median house rental price in the past 12 months to Q4 2025, to $995 per week. During this time, the number of house rented decreased by -7.2% (to 116 rentals in Q4 2025). This indicates an undersupplied and highly competitive house rental market in Robina¥, which is beneficial to investors.

2 BEDROOMS

-2.0%

3 BEDROOMS

4+ bedroom houses have provided investors with a significant +6.4% rental growth annually, achieving a median rent of $1,200 per week.

+4.7%

Robina¥ recorded a vacancy rate of 0.8% in December 2025, below Gold Coast Main average of 1.3% and Brisbane Metro’s 1.2%. Vacancy rates have slightly increased in the past 12 month since December 2024, due to investors re-entering the market. However, a 0.8% vacancy rate is well below the Real Estate Institution of Australia’s healthy benchmark of 3.0%, indicating quicker occupancy of rental properties in Robina¥. This creates a conducive environment for investors, even with a higher house and unit sales (thus entry) price in the past 12 months to Q4 2025.

4 BEDROOMS

+6.4%

RENTAL VACANCY RATES 2025

3.5% 3.0%

2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

Dec-25

Sep-25

Jun-25

Brisbane Metro

Mar-25

Dec-24

Gold Coast Main

Sep-24

Jun-24

Mar-24

Dec-23

Sep-23

Jun-23

Mar-23

Dec-22

Robina (4226)

REIA 'Healthy' Benchmark

%

RENTAL YIELD 2025 §

3.7%

3.5%

2.9%

4.5%

4.0%

3.7%

Robina¥

Gold Coast Main

Brisbane Metro

Robina¥

Gold Coast Main

Brisbane Metro


PROJECT DEVELOPMENT MAP 2026-2028 LEGEND Commercial Infrastructure Industrial Mixed-Use Residential

ROBINA

#

Project£

Type

Estimated Valueµ

Commence Dateψ

1

Lakesview Residential Development Master Plan Stage 1-5 (Residential - 2294 Units + Commercial - 914 Buid-to-Rent Units)

Mixed-use

$2,100,000,000

8/02/2028

2

Greenheart Precincts Stage 2 (Local Government)

Infrastructure $100,000,000

5/04/2027

3

Lots 5-8 Stadium Drive Robina Build To Rent Development (300 Build-to-Rent Apartments)

Commercial

$90,000,000

5/01/2027

4

5 & 13 Robina Town Centre Drive Apartments & Townhouses (163 Apartments + 14 Townhouses)

Residential

$70,000,000

2/02/2026

5

The Glades Resort Hotel & Apartments (Commercial + Residential - 70 Apartments)

Mixed-use

$50,000,000

1/04/2026

6

Lakesview Townhouses Robina Precinct 1 (48 Townhouses)

Residential

$30,000,000

1/12/2026

7

The Base Robina Offices

Commercial

$15,000,000

1/06/2026

8

26-30 Ben Lexcen Place Townhouses (20 Townhouses)

Residential

$10,000,000

18/12/2026

9

1 Glades Drive Townhouses (23 Townhouses)

Residential

$7,000,000

8/02/2027

10

Robina Hospital (State Government)

Infrastructure

$6,000,000

22/02/2027

11

34 Bourton Road Units (18 Units)

Residential

$5,500,000

11/02/2027

12

Project Banana Robina

Commercial

$4,500,000

1/05/2026

13

Robina Hospital - HVAC And BMS Upgrade (State Government)

Infrastructure

$2,400,000

10/03/2027

14

2 Fairway Drive Villas (3 Villas)

Residential

$1,200,000

18/06/2026

15

Robina Parkway Telecommunications Facility

Commercial

$400,000

3/04/2026


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REFERENCES * Robina sales market data and key indicators encapsulates aggregate property market conditions within the suburb of Robina. ** Estimated values are based on construction value provided by the relevant data authority and does not reflect commercial and/or re-sale value. # 2025 encapsulates sales transactions for the full year 2025 (01/01/2025 – 31/12/2025). € Annual rental growth is a comparison between Q4 2024 (01/10/2024 – 31/12/2024) and Q4 2025 (01/10/2025 – 31/12/2025) house median rent figures. ¥ Robina rental market data encapsulates aggregate property conditions within the postcode of 4226. § Rental yields shown are as reported as of December 2025. ₳ Project development map showcases a sample of upcoming projects only, due to accuracy of addresses provided by the data provider for geocoding purposes. £ Projects refers to the top developments within the postcode of 4226. µ Estimated value is the value of construction costs provided by relevant data authority, it does not reflect the project’s sale/commercial value. ψ Commencement date quoted for each project is an approximate only, as provided by the relevant data authority, PRD does not hold any liability to the exact date. Source: APM Pricefinder, Cordell Connect database, SQM Research, Esri ArcGIS. Disclaimer: PRD does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRD will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRD Research. © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRD Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © Copyright PRD 2026.


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