UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge

L.A.NOW

UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge

Project Director

Thom Mayne - Founder, The NOW Institute

Project Manager

LETTERS pg3

Eui-Sung Yi - Director, The NOW Institute

Design

Lily Bakhshi Sheppard Philippe Maman Ryan Doyle Beyza Paksoy

Research and Writing Philippe Maman Rebecca Choi Ryan Doyle Annie Eby Gary Fox

Cartography Çağdaş Delen

LOS ANGELES AT A GLANCE

-Grand Challenges -Sustainable Los Angeles -Los Angeles -Global Perspective -Los Angeles County

pg9

THE SUSTAINABLE LA GRAND CHALLENGE pg12

ECOSYSTEM

-Ecosystem -Energy -Water

-Enhanced Health

pg15

Project Development Julie LeRenard Yake Wang Joel Wong

ENERGY pg24

-Transportation -Buildings

Advisors

Professor Mark Gold, Associate Vice Chancellor for Environment and Sustainability, UCLA Professor Richard Wirz, Director of Energy Innovation Laboratory, UCLA Heidi Creighton, BuroHappold Engineering David Herd, BuroHappold Engineering Gideon Sussman, BuroHappold Engineering

WATER

CONCLUSION pg68

First published in the United States in 2019 by the NOW Institute.

Copyright © 2019 by the NOW Institute.

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording, or otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher.

TENT

-100% Local

pg52

-Next Steps

CON-

The

Grand Challenge 100% renewable energy, 100% local water, and enhanced ecosystem health by 2050.

By 2050, Los Angeles County will have 1.5 million more residents and two to three times as many extreme-heat days. If LA is to thrive in the next century it must find a way to meet the challenge.

The NOW Institute UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge UCLA Department of Architecture and Urban Design

GRAND CHALLENGES Los Angeles 2050 Letter by Gene Block

2

As one of the world’s leading public research universities, UCLA is committed to applying its intellectual capital and resources to addressing some of society’s greatest challenges. At UCLA, we believe that if we work together, there is no problem that we cannot solve, and this motivates and drives our researchers and scholars to improve the quality of life and well-being of people in Los Angeles and beyond.

In 2013, UCLA announced its first Grand Challenge —the Sustainable LA Grand Challenge, Thriving in a Hotter Los Angeles. We seek to transform Los Angeles into the first sustainable megacity by building a multi-disciplinary team, facilitating collaborations, producing ground-breaking research and new technologies, and creating and fostering partnerships across sectors and in the community. Our goal is for the Los Angeles region to use exclusively renewable energy and local water by 2050 while protecting biodiversity and enhancing quality of life.

UCLA’s Grand Challenge initiatives are among the most prominent and tangible examples of how we are engaging expertise from across our entire campus to solve major societal challenges. They are the biggest research projects UCLA has ever undertaken. The discoveries and scholarship produced are expected to improve the life of Angelenos and citizens across the globe. We look forward to continued partnership with community and government leaders, other academic institutions, industry, and other stakeholders to ensure a thriving Los Angeles in 2050.

Gene Block Chancellor University of California, Los Angeles

SUSTAINABLE LA Growth Challenge Letter by Mark Gold

4

Over the course of the 21st century, Los Angeles faces daunting climate change and urban population growth challenges. By 2050, UCLA researchers predict that climate change will result in increased temperatures of 4-5°F and a doubling or tripling in the number of extreme-heat days (days above 95°F) in LA County, while also causing a decrease in the mountain snowpack that feeds our current distant and local water sources. Simultaneously, the County will hold an estimated 1.5 million more people and will face the challenge of providing its citizens with reliable energy and water and an environment that will enhance their health.

The UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge was developed to address these challenges so that Los Angeles will thrive in a hotter climate. Specifically, Sustainable LA aims to transition LA County to 100% renewable energy, 100% locally sourced water, and enhanced ecosystem and human health by 2050.

UCLA will capitalize on its research strengths and lead the development of a blueprint for reaching these audacious goals by 2020 in partnership with local and state government, businesses, community groups, non-government agencies, and other stakeholders.

local water resources from rainfall, groundwater, and recycled water to meet our substantial needs. And, while known for its sprawl, the County’s mountainous geography functions as a natural urban limit that ensures the subsistence of the region’s rich plant and animal life.

The Sustainable LA Grand Challenge goals are ambitious, but they are undoubtedly achievable. The region is incredibly diverse in population, geography, and professional expertise, and it is the creative capital of the nation, if not the world. As such, Los Angeles has the ingenuity and capacity to transform into a truly sustainable megacity. In charting a pathway to sustainability, Los Angeles can lead the way for other megacities across the world.

While the energy, water, and ecosystem health goals all have global applicability, UCLA chose them with the region’s most pressing needs and capabilities in mind.

Despite years of progress, LA County continues to top the charts as one of the smoggiest regions in the nation. The megacity’s growing population continues to place a greater demand on an increasingly scarce water supply, and LA County lies within the only designated biodiversity hotspot in the continental US. Fortunately, Los Angeles is in one of the most solar-rich regions in the world, and despite the region’s reputation as an arid area, LA County has enough Mark Gold UCLA Associate Vice Chancellor for Environment and Sustainability

LOS ANGELES The Now Institute Letter by Thom Mayne

6

When called upon to solve complex social, political, economic, ecological, and cultural problems, architects often play the role of negotiator — mediating between the individual and collective, aesthetic demands and operational function, aspirational ambition and pragmatic realities, nuance and legibility.

These negotiations occur even amid disparate subjective values, and in some circumstances even when subjective interpretation is called upon as fact. Such is the case for environmental issues today. We live in a world where half of Americans still do not recognize global warming as a critical issue, and urgent environmental issues remain politicized, which more often than not skew environmental facts in service of partisan agendas. In response, we seek to define common paradigms for assessing LA County’s current condition. As a society, we may not agree on a unified vision but we must at least seek to establish a common reality.

When the NOW Institute joined the UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge, we realized we needed to create a platform before we submitted any architectural or urban solutions. Developing a platform was the crucial first step. The platform not only provided a framework to understand the kinds of problems we would tackle, but it also served as an arena where a much-needed conversation between policymakers, designers, and city governance could occur. This preliminary task proved to be an entirely new and rigorous enterprise, requiring the coordination of multiple fields and unique intelligences, which all worked together toward a common understanding of the interdependent issues that face LA in the 21st century.

to address the County’s specific energy, water, and health challenges. Here, we offer a first-round assessment that defines the scope of the task at hand. This assessment will evolve as research develops and is subject to refutation and reevaluation. This initial assessment does not advocate for a solution, but rather serves as a platform whereby research, both expert and prosaic, is welcomed.

Through a collective approach, we hope to foster cross-pollination that can ultimately catalyze into a fully realized implementation strategy.

The goals outlined in the Grand Challenge are a timely response to the immediate sustainability challenges facing LA, as well as many urban regions worldwide. As part of a major research university, we must work beyond the boundaries of academia and begin to apply theory to large-scale solutions that can be carried out in the real world. This publication precedes a second analysis of regional growth scenarios that takes a holistic view of energy, water, and ecosystem health as they relate to the cultural and physical landscape of Los Angeles.

This study, the first of two co-publications, provides a much-needed foundation Thom Mayne Distinguished Professor, UCLA Architecture and Urban Design

8

LOS ANGELES AT A GLANCE Global Perspective

Los Angeles County

Cities around the world are recognizing the need for solutions, both bottom-up and top-down, to sustainably allocate resources, infrastructure, and land for a rapidly growing population.

Megacities around the world including London, Dubai, and New York all have goals of increasing renewable energy usage significantly by 2050.

Countless other urban centers such as Madrid and Vancouver are following suit. Central to their plans is both the merger of new technologies with grandfathered infrastructure as well as more ambitious speculation about how those technologies will generate new urban forms. Here in Los Angeles, we have engaged the Sustainable LA Grand Challenge to tackle this global problematic.

Los Angeles has the third largest metropolitan GDP in the world.

Celebrated for its rich and varied ethnicities, LA County and its 88 incorporated cities serve as home to over 10 million people, making Los Angeles the nation’s most populous county. Given its cultural diversity and role as a global-economic powerhouse, it’s not surprising that LA is perfectly positioned to serve as a paradigm for 21st-century cities—inspiring new urban theories and concepts and even influencing new forms of urbanism. What LA lacks however is a plan to establish itself as the most sustainable county in the world by operating on 100% renewable energy and locally sourced water.

BUILDINGS CONSUME MOST OF LA COUNTY’S ENERGY SUPPLY

While studying UCLA’s data and several years of research, it has become clear that architecture will play a crucial role in moving the county towards 100% renewable energy and local water supply.

Globally, architecture has already proven its relevancy in the ever-expanding field of environmental sustainability.

In the context of Los Angeles, the role

that architecture can play has never been seriously considered, despite the fact that buildings produce more than half of the county’s green house emissions. From our perspective, rather than read this data as a negative statistic, we see an opportunity to carve out productive paths towards mitigating the county’s most anticipated challenges.

Offices Retail Warehouses Shopping Malls Exhibition Halls Convention Centers (Does not include multi-family)

ELEC TRIC VE HI CL ES 15 .8 %

.7% 22 L IA RC

C

CO M M E

Offices Retail Warehouses Shopping Malls Exhibition Halls Convention Centers (Does not include multi-family)

THEREFORE, ARCHITECTS SHOULD HAVE A VOICE IN DISCUSSING LA’S SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

FREIGHT 4 %

.4% 18 AL I C ER M M O

% 8.1 R2 CA

INE VEH ICLE S 27.3%

67.1% BUILDINGS

Other 3%

7.

6% E TH O

5.

1%

3

Single Family Multi-Family Condos

RS

GA SO L

Single Family Multi-Family Condos

32.9%

TRANSPORTATION

L TIA EN SID RE

% .8 19 IAL NT IDE RES

10

56.9% BUILDINGS

43.1%

TRANSPORTATION

.0% L6 RIA T S INDU

IND UST RIAL 8 .5%

Regional Train Metro Street Car BRT Bus Taxi Motorcycle

Government Hospital and Healthcare K-12 and Universities Other Non-Residential

Other 3% Commercial other Streetlight

AG & Water Pump 1.6% Mining and Construction 1.3%

California Energy ConsumptionCONSUMPTION Database (http://ecdms.energy.ca.gov/) LASource: COUNTY ENERGY UCLA-NSF Workshop: Food-Energy-Water Nexus in California, Dec 2, 2015, Richie Wirz, Karthik Nithyanandam, Parker Wells BREAKDOWN

California Energy Consumption Database (http://ecdms.energy.ca.gov/) UCLA-NSF Workshop: Food-Energy-Water Nexus in California, Dec 2, 2015, Richie Wirz, Karthik Nithyanandam, Parker Wells

LA COUNTY GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSION BREAKDOWN

Source: Technology Pathways to 80X50, Preliminary CyPT Analysis for the City of LA, Siemens AG 2017 (siemens.com/cypt)

Source: Technology Pathways to 80X50, Preliminary CyPT Analysis for the City of LA, Siemens AG 2017 (siemens.com/cypt)

THE SUSTAINABLE LA GRAND CHALLENGE

12

In 2015, UCLA launched an interdisciplinary study to identify the opportunities and challenges of guiding Los Angeles toward a sustainable future. As part of this multi-year collaboration with the UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge, the NOW Institute has been exploring the ways in which the complexity of sustainability can be synthesized into a productive action plan for Los Angeles.

The metrics presented in this publication are our projections for LA County’s expected 2050 energy demand. They are given here to bolster public understanding of the UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge and encourage expert engagement with its subject matter.

Because we are speaking about projected demand in the year 2050, our metrics are speculative in nature. They are based on presentHere, we emphasize a part-to-whole day efficiency standards and scaled relationship that is left unexamined by expected improvements in in other sustainability studies. For renewable energy generation. They example, conventional environmental extrapolate from the current UCLA studies identify buildings and cars to Environmental Report Card as well be the two dominant producers of the as current environmental health and County’s greenhouse gas emissions. energy demand statistics. Our metrics These same studies classify buildings include electrified transportation and and cars into exclusive categories, building energy demand from present and accordingly, they offer separate day LA County, covering industrial remediation strategies for each use cases as well as both tracking sector. Our approach has been the reverse. We consider consumption and and static photovoltaic generation emission percentages from both sectors capacities. They sit within rough orders of magnitude of LA County’s 2050 simultaneously, and in doing so, we demand. highlight how quickly Los Angeles can achieve 100% renewable energy by simply combining top-down and bottom-up strategies for both sectors.

ecosystem

energy

water

Enhanced Health

100% Renewable & Electric

100% Local

ecosystem

14

ENHANCED HEALTH LA County lies within the California Floristic Province. The California Floristic Province is the only one of its kind in the continental United States and is globally recognized as one of the 35 biodiversity hotspots in the world. A quarter of the County is made up of areas identified as “Significant Ecological Areas” that are currently in danger. Largely unprotected, these SEA’s, and the 92 endangered species they house will continue to diminish if LA continues to build without an integrated, crossdisciplinary plan to protect these natural environments from development. Without such plans, LA will likely lose 150,000 acres of SEA’s, equivalent to more than ten times the acreage of the Wilshire corridor, by 2050. The welfare of LA’s residents is at stake. With this in mind, our goal is to preserve natural environments, as well as improve access to and the quality of parks.

supply increased

STRATEGY 1: Protect All

Non-Urbanized Land in LA County

16

top - down

Currently around 30% of the County’s natural land is protected from development and another 30% of natural land is nondeveloped but unprotected. By providing greater development opportunities within existing urban areas and discouraging growth outside of these areas, the effects of LA County’s expected population growth—1.5 million additional people by 2050—may be mitigated. Protecting each parcel of currently non-urbanized land is a thought-worthy experiment that may in fact produce the most positive impact.

OTHER

NONURBAN

MAINLAND

TOTAL LAND

ISLANDS VACANT PROTECTED

NON-DEVELOPED OPEN SPACE AGRICULTURE

URBAN

RESIDENTAL COMMERCIAL DEVELOPED

INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

REGIONAL PARKS LOCAL PARKS OTHER SINGLE FAMILY MULTI-FAMILY OTHER

ROADS

MILITARY

OTHER

MIXED USE HARBORS

NOT PROTECTED

supply increased

STRATEGY 2: Ensure Everyone Lives

Within a Quarter Mile of a Park that is Sized to Sustain an Ecological System

bottom - up

18

top - down

Less than half of LA County’s urban area is within a quarter mile of a park. As the urban area expands, municipalities will need to enhance park access for existing areas and develop new parks to meet the quarter-mile access goal. Ultimately, the cities within the county will need to build more parks to accommodate a larger service area.

OTHER

NONURBAN

MAINLAND

TOTAL LAND

ISLANDS PROTECTED

VACANT NON-DEVELOPED

URBAN

OPEN SPACE

REGIONAL PARKS

AGRICULTURE

LOCAL PARKS

RESIDENTAL COMMERCIAL DEVELOPED

INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

OTHER SINGLE FAMILY MULTI-FAMILY OTHER

ROADS

MILITARY

OTHER

MIXED USE HARBORS

supply increased

NOT PROTECTED

supply increased

STRATEGY 3: Establish Connected

Habitat Strongholds for Displaced and Endangered Species

bottom - up

20

top - down

As the city facilitates access to parks in order to establish and maintain high quality of life for its human residents, it is crucial that it also consider the fauna who are unable to advocate for themselves. This conservation strategy does not require the sequestering of additional parkland, but rather the intelligent planting of local flora that have historically supported biodiversity in LA County. Private green space in LA County exceeds that of 65 Central Parks. By planting local flora in those areas as well as preserving existing habitat infrastructure in our regional open spaces, we can re-establish contiguous corridors of natural habitat for displaced and endangered species.

OTHER

NONURBAN

MAINLAND

TOTAL LAND

ISLANDS PROTECTED

VACANT NON-DEVELOPED

URBAN

OPEN SPACE

REGIONAL PARKS

AGRICULTURE

LOCAL PARKS

RESIDENTAL COMMERCIAL DEVELOPED

INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

OTHER SINGLE FAMILY MULTI-FAMILY OTHER

ROADS

MILITARY

OTHER

MIXED USE HARBORS

supply increased

NOT PROTECTED

supply increased

ecosystem

top - down

2050 STRATEGIES Ecosystem health is a broad term that describes the health and well-being of humans, animals, and plant life. In order to address the county’s ecosystem health, we must consider urban and natural environments as one interconnected ecology.

We believe increasing green space will sustain the county’s biodiversity and positively impact human well-being.

bottom - up

22

Building upon the current effort, the characterization of ecosystem health will be refined to higher resolutions and more localized spatial scales. In urban areas, additional indicators are envisioned to include landscape, tree canopy, open space, and land cover at neighborhood and finer-grained scales. When complete, indicators and maps will help guide biodiversity, climate change adaptation, ecosystem management, land use, public health, and infrastructure decisions.

OTHER ISLANDS VACANT NONURBAN

PROTECTED

NON-DEVELOPED MAINLAND

URBAN

OPEN SPACE

REGIONAL PARKS

AGRICULTURE

LOCAL PARKS

RESIDENTAL COMMERCIAL DEVELOPED

INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

OTHER SINGLE FAMILY MULTI-FAMILY OTHER

ROADS

MILITARY

OTHER

MIXED USE HARBORS

supply increased

NOT PROTECTED

energy

100% RENEWABLE Despite years of progress, Los Angeles is still considered the smoggiest city in America. LA County was ranked fourth for annual particle pollution out of 187 metropolitan areas in the United States.

These facts are not only alarming, but they also indicate that LA is far from ready to sustainably support 11.6 million people in 2050.

24

The UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge targets renewable energy efforts in two major sectors: transportation and buildings. To achieve the goal of reaching 100% renewable energy, our strategy explores both sides of the supply and demand equation by experimenting with conservation efforts and studying emissions outputs, calibrating each side to induce the best possible outcome.

The percentages presented here represent rough order-of-magnitude estimates of projected 2050 business-as-usual energy demand for LA County.

BASELINE: Just 3% of LA’s Energy Demand

Will Be Met By Existing Renewable Sources in 2050 if Current Usage Trends Continue LA County’s projected 2050 energy demand will rely, in large part, on non-renewable sources and private transportation. If we do not increase the capacity of renewables in LA County’s energy portfolio, only 3% of energy demand would be met with renewables by 2050. This is not enough to support our expected population of 11.6 million people sustainably.

3% BASELINE

3% BASELINE

26

SUPPLY FROM RENEWABLES

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

BUS

ELECTRIC PUBLIC

PUBLIC

PUBLIC

FUEL

RAIL5%

ELECTRIC

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

DIESEL

DIESELPOWERED

PRIVATE GASOLINE

*Sankey Diagrams for strategies 1 - 3 only represent transportation energy demand.

PRIVATE

PRIVATE GASOLINEPOWERED

10M PEOPLE

energy: transportation

100% RENEWABLE

28

By 2050, LA County is forecasted to have one million additional cars on the road. At that rate of influx, private vehicles will emit greenhouse gases and particulate matter equivalent to four coal-burning power plants, contributing to a poor-quality atmosphere in some of LA County’s most populated areas. This estimate does not take into account the increased congestion or longer commute times exacerbated by sprawl, which will add even more transportation-related emissions into the atmosphere. The negative effect of emissions from additional cars is multiplied by the increased amount of time cars spend on the road due to higher congestion.

Pathways to solving this problem include moving more people onto public transit and electrifying all transportation methods.

Due to LA’s relatively clean grid, the county emits less per kWh than most areas. However, LA still spends the most on pollution-related health problems of any county in the state indicating there is significant room for improvement.

STRATEGY 1: If 1/4 of All Commuters

Rode the Bus and All Buses Ran on Electricity, County Energy Demand Would Be Reduced by 11% Most buses in the Los Angeles Metro system run on natural gas.

However, the city plans to replace all non-electrical buses with electrical vehicles by 2030. Additionally, the state of California has mandated that Los Angeles moves its entire bus fleet off of fossil fuels and has indicated that wider programs to increase ridership are in development.

In LA, the bus network carries over 70% of Metro’s customers (2.5 times the amount who travel by rail) and hasn’t had a significant update in 25 years. Los Angeles needs to further increase the electrified bus stock in the County to sustainably meet the energy demands of the projected 2050 population.

11% ELECTRIFIED BUS

11% STRATEGY 1

30

REDUCTION IN 2050 ENERGY DEMAND

ELECTRIC

11.5M PEOPLE

BUS PUBLIC

PUBLIC

PUBLIC RAIL

~ ELECTRIC VEHICLES

0% ELECTRIC ~ 7% DIESEL

DIESELPOWERED

PRIVATE 92% GASOLINE 85%

PRIVATE 92% 92%

PRIVATE 92% 85% GASOLINEGASOLINE POWERED POWERED

*The metric and data above are projections for 2050 ridership based on present day data. reduced demand

bottom - up

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

STRATEGY 2: If Another 1/4 of

Commuters Rode Metro Rail, County Energy Demand Would Be Reduced by 10% Current ridership on weekdays averages only 360,000 riders.

There are many plans, including Measure M that passed in 2016, to fund more lines and extensions, thus increasing the convenience of commuting by Metro rail.

10% ELECTRIFIED RAIL

10% STRATEGY 2

32 32

REDUCTION IN 2050 ENERGY DEMAND

bottom - up

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

BUS 2% BUS

ELECTRIC PUBLIC

PUBLIC

PUBLIC RAIL

ELECTRIC

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

DIESEL

DIESELPOWERED

PRIVATE GASOLINE

PRIVATE

PRIVATE GASOLINEPOWERED

reduced demand

STRATEGY 3: If All Remaining

Commuters Drove Electric Vehicles in 2050, County Energy Demand Would Be Reduced by 17% Electric vehicles travel the same distance as gasoline cars, but use far less energy. As electric cars become even more efficient, they will consume less than one-fifth of the kWh/mile of today’s gasoline-powered cars. While electric vehicles place a greater demand on the electricity grid, they reduce Los Angeles’ overall energy demand. Since fossil fuel-burning vehicles are a major source of emissions, adverse health outcomes from polluted air would likely reduce dramatically throughout the basin if all vehicles were electric.

17% ELECTRIC CARS

17% STRATEGY 3

34

REDUCTION IN 2050 ENERGY DEMAND

bottom - up

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

2% BUS BUS

ELECTRIC PUBLIC

PUBLIC

FUEL

PUBLIC RAIL

DIESEL

ELECTRIC

PRIVATE

PRIVATE

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

PRIVATE

GASOLINE *The metric and data above are projections for 2050 ridership based on present day data. reduced demand

transportation

2050 STRATEGIES

36

100%

While electrification reduces localized emissions, it results in an increased demand on the electric grid. In order to make public transit and personalized vehicles truly green, an electrified system must obtain its energy from a renewable energy grid.

bottom - up

ELECTRIFIED TRANSPORTATION 2050 PROJECTION

This combined strategy demonstrates the effect of both increasing the number of riders on public transportation and electrifying transportation. The metrics presented in strategies 1-3 include present-day electrified transit. While removing gas and diesel from the transportation energy supply is possible, electric vehicles are only one solution. UCLA researchers are also studying low-carbon and renewable biofuels–which could replace gasoline and diesel–as well as autonomous vehicles and ridesharing programs, which could dramatically reduce congestion and parking-related driving that contribute to emissions.

2% BUSBUS

ELECTRIC PUBLIC

PUBLIC

FUEL

PUBLIC RAIL

DIESEL

ELECTRIC

PRIVATE

PRIVATE

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

PRIVATE

GASOLINE

reduced demand

energy: buildings

100% RENEWABLE If no new renewable energy generation is developed, building-related emissions in LA County will equal the emissions of at least ten coal-burning power plants in 2050.

This 2050 emissions forecast is likely underestimated. It does not factor the predicted increase in extreme-heat days, which can create up to double the electricity demand in affected areas like the Inland Valley, many of which are the fastestgrowing areas in terms of population.

38

The addition of electric vehicles will exert extra pressure on electricity supply that, combined with the addition of 1.5 million people, will require even larger amounts of renewable energy to meet the County’s 2050 needs.

The following strategies detail the energy supply and demand required for the construction and maintenance of the built environment in 2050. They factor in the parts of the built environment that are already powered by renewable sources, including those dedicated to industry.

STRATEGY 4: Environmentally Sensitive

Building Practices Could Reduce Another 7% of LA County’s Projected 2050 Energy Demand Over the last forty years, the energy efficiency of buildings in Los Angeles County improved by about 25%. Energy efficiency for all building types in the City of LA is mandated to improve another 30% by 2035. Assuming a concurrent increase in renewables along with LA County’s growing population, this is an achievable goal. With advancing technologies, this goal could be considered modest when compared to additional state mandates to double the energy efficiency of buildings by 2030. This piece of the pie also represents the need to update all possible existing building stock to present-day efficiency standards.

7% BUILDING EFFICIENCY

7% STRATEGY 4

40

REDUCTION IN 2050 ENERGY

ENER ENER

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION WIND

GEOTHERMAL GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS

BIOMASS

SOLAR

SOLAR

HYDRO

HYDRO

COAL

COAL

NUCLEAR

NUCLEAR

NATURAL GASNATURAL GAS

SINGLE FAMILY SINGLE FAMILY RENEWABLE ENERGY

NONRENEWABLE ENERGY

RESIDENTIALRESIDENTIAL

RENEWABLE ENERGY

NONRENEWABLE ENERGY

UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED

MULTI-FAMILY MULTI-FAMILY CONDO

UNACUNACUNACCOUNTED UNACCOUNTED FOR GRID FOR GRID

COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL

GRIDGRID ENERGYGRIDGRID ENERGY

INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIAL AND AND INSTITUTIONAL INSTITUTIONAL

OTHER

bottom - up

WIND

144,026 144,026

CONDO

OTHER

TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION

*Sankey Diagram for strategies 4 - 9 exclude transit energy demand. reduced demand

supply increased

STRATEGY 5: Distributed Solar Could

Provide Another 8% of LA’s Renewable Energy in 2050

top - down

Los Angeles receives on average 250 days of sun throughout the year. A significant portion of LA County is solar net positive, meaning that its land has the potential to produce more electricity than is currently consumed annually. In LA County, rooftop solar could produce around 88.5 T BTU (British Thermal Units) of electricity, or 15% of future demand in the built environment.

Solar PV pays for itself in about 9 years, with owners in Southern California estimated to profit about $35,000 over its lifespan. A reasonable percentage of pedestrian and automotive transit routes can be covered with solar PV to account for this increase.

8% DISTRIBUTED SOLAR

8% STRATEGY 5

42

INCREASED SUPPLY FROM RENEWABLES

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

WIND GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS PV

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL

RENEWABLE ENERGY

SOLAR

CONDO UNACCOUNTED FOR GRID

HYDRO

COMMERCIAL

GRID ENERGY

COAL NUCLEAR NATURAL GAS

MULTI FAMILY

NONRENEWABLE ENERGY

UNSPECIFIED *The metrics presented above are based on potential for increased PV distribution given expected changes in the programming of public space.

INDUSTRIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL

OTHER

TRANSPORTATION

supply increased

STRATEGY 6: Generating Energy from

Biomass Could Supply Another 3% of LA County’s 2050 Renewable Energy Needs

top - down

Biomass can be burned directly or converted to liquid biofuels or biogas that is then burned as fuel. Wood, crops, food-waste, animal manure, human sewage and controlled forest burns comprise this category along with many other raw energy sources.

In 2017, biomass-generated electricity in CA totalled 5,767 GWh or 2.8% of the state’s power. 34 of the 93 operating biomass power plants in California are in LA County. Their net 976,436 MWh capacity is a growing component of our projected 2050 renewables makeup.

3% BIOMASS

3% STRATEGY 7

ENERGY ENERGY

144,026 144,026 GWHGWH

44

INCREASED SUPPLY FROM RENEWABLES

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION WIND

WIND

GEOTHERMAL GEOTHERMAL BIOMASSBIOMASS SOLAR

SINGLE FAMILY SINGLE FA RENEWABLERENEWABLE ENERGY ENERGY

UNACCOUNTED UNACCOUNTED FOR GRID FOR GRID

COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL

GRID ENERGY GRID ENERGY

INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIAL AND AND INSTITUTIONAL INSTITUTIONAL

COAL

NUCLEARNUCLEAR NATURAL NATURAL GAS GAS

MULTI FAMILY MULTI FAM

CONDO CONDO

SOLAR

HYDRO HYDRO

COAL

RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL

NONNONRENEWABLERENEWABLE ENERGY ENERGY

UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED *The statistics mentioned above assume an increase in waste-to-energy facilities given present-day trends.

OTHER OTHER

TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION

supply increased

STRATEGY 7: Utility-Scale Solar Could

Complement Demand-Side Pathways Providing 31% of LA County Energy in 2050

top - down

Utility-scale solar, including concentrated solar power as well as both fixed and tracking PV arrays, is a developing technology, but its thermal storage potential is already a less expensive alternative to batteries and can provide a more constant around-the-clock power supply than photovoltaics and offshore wind. Combined with the potential from urban PV applications and existing renewables, remote solar would need to produce 57% of the renewable supply, which would only require 0.4% of LA County land. There is tremendous potential for large-scale and tracking PV as well. Over 1.5GW of PV is already produced near the LAKern County border.

31% UTILITY SCALE SOLAR

31% STRATEGY 8

46

INCREASED SUPPLY FROM RENEWABLES

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL

MULTI FAMILY CONDO

WIND GEOTHERMAL

COMMERCIAL

BIOMASS PV CSP

SOLAR

RENEWABLE ENERGY

INDUSTRIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL

HYDRO COAL NUCLEAR NATURAL GAS

NONRENEWABLE ENERGY

UNSPECIFIED *The statistics mentioned above assume an increase in real-estate available for development in areas of high solar intensity.

OTHER

TRASNSPORTATION

supply increased

STRATEGY 8: Innovation and New

Technology

top - down

Along with the previously mentioned paths to 100% renewable energy in LA County by 2050, there are new technologies and modifications to existing tech that must be factored in. The current pace of improvements to existing renewable energy generation as well as the expected conception of completely new renewable energy solutions demand some real-estate in our future energy portfolio.

10% INNOVATION

10% STRATEGY 9

48 48

INCREASED SUPPLY FROM RENEWABLES

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL

MULTI FAMILY CONDO

WIND GEOTHERMAL

COMMERCIAL

BIOMASS PV CSP

SOLAR

RENEWABLE ENERGY

INDUSTRIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL

HYDRO COAL NUCLEAR NATURAL GAS

NONRENEWABLE ENERGY

UNSPECIFIED *The statements above reflect research into frequency of advances in energy generation and storage technologies.

OTHER

TRASNSPORTATION

supply increased

buildings

top - down

2050 STRATEGIES Even with the additional load imposed on the grid from the electrification of transportation, 100% renewable energy is achievable in LA County through increasing building efficiency and harnessing the power of the sun.

All of this can be acheived with very little impact on available land in the region. Using only existing buildings’ rooftops and 0.4% of regional land would supply more than enough energy for the entire County.

50

100%

bottom - up

bottom - up

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2050 PROJECTION

The future of LA’s power portfolio will look very different from today’s. As the County relinquishes its reliance on fossil fuels and other non-renewable energy sources, new and existing renewable energy stock will be combined with centralized and distributed solar power generation. This renewable portfolio will transform the entire County into a green and self-sufficient power plant, and its residents into producers, not just consumers, of energy.

2% BUS BUS

ELECTRIC PUBLIC

PUBLIC

FUEL

PUBLIC RAIL

DIESEL

ELECTRIC

PRIVATE

PRIVATE

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

PRIVATE

GASOLINE

supply increased

reduced demand

water

100% LOCAL

52

As it stands, LA County depends on imported water sources that may not exist or may be prohibitively expensive by 2050.

At the projected rate of use of 139 gallons per capita per day, a population increase of 1.5 million will require an additional 75 billion gallons of water per year by 2050.

Increased pressure on groundwater supplies will increase dependence on imports which, by 2050, will be even less secure due to increasing populations in the West and climate change. Sourcing 100% of LA’s water locally may sound unimaginable, but UCLA researchers have identified inefficiencies in the County’s water practices that, if corrected, could amply provide for 2050’s projected population and beyond.

This section explores both supply- and demand-side pathways to meet the UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge 100% local water goal. The proposed strategies do not maximize availability of supply sources nor the full potential for conservation, but use a combined mixture of the two.

BASELINE: 37% of the Water Supply

in LA County Currently Comes from Local Sources.

37% BASELINE

37% BASELINE

54

LOCAL WATER

LOCAL WATER USAGE 2050 PROJECTION

RECYCLED WATER

OUTDOOR SINGLE FAMILY

STORMWATER CAPTURE

LOCAL NATURAL RECHARGE

GROUND WATER

RESIDENTIAL

INDOOR

MANAGED RECHARGE

MULTI-FAMILY CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT

COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT LA AQUEDUCT

COMMERCIAL IMPORTED

OTHER INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

STRATEGY 1: Reducing Residential

Indoor Water Use by 25% Would Reduce Total Demand 10%, Equivalent to Increasing Supply by 8% Residential water conservation is already improving with more efficient appliances and lifestyle changes. However, Angelenos in 2013 consumed close to 95 gallons per capita per day for residential use (R-GPCD). This amount exceeds more than three times the amount consumed in Berlin, where residents use only 30 gallons per day. Water conservation is key to reaching local water goals and reducing reliance on imported water.

8% INDOOR WATER REDUCTION

8% STRATEGY 1

56

INCREASED SUPPLY

RECYCLED WATER

OUTDOOR SINGLE FAMILY

STORMWATER CAPTURE NATURAL RECHARGE

GROUND WATER

LOCAL

RESIDENTIAL INDOOR MULTI FAMILY

MANAGED RECHARGE

COMMERCIAL CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT

LA AQUEDUCT

OTHER IMPORTED

INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

reduced demand

bottom - up

LOCAL WATER USAGE 2050 PROJECTION

STRATEGY 2: Xeriscaping Will Make

the Biggest Impact on Residential Water Consumption According to UCLA researchers, over 54% of single-family household water is used for outdoor irrigation. Xeriscaping is landscaping that reduces or eliminates the need for supplemental water from irrigation, primarily by the planting of regionally native flora. A xeriscaping pilot project in LA County reduced residential water use to an average of 55 gallons per person per day, which is close to half of what the average residential consumer used in 2013. This was done by transforming residents’ yards with techniques that increase biodiversity, harvest rainwater, prevent polluted runoff, mitigate flooding, and add nearly one million gallons to groundwater. Changes in landscaping could reduce water demand by 18% or more, equivalent to adding 10% to the local water supply.

10% XERISCAPING

10% STRATEGY 2

58

INCREASED SUPPLY

RECYCLED WATER

OUTDOOR SINGLE FAMILY

STORMWATER CAPTURE

LOCAL NATURAL RECHARGE

GROUND WATER

RESIDENTIAL

INDOOR MULTI-FAMILY

MANAGED RECHARGE

COMMERCIAL CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT

LA AQUEDUCT

OTHER IMPORTED

INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

reduced demand

bottom - up

LOCAL WATER USAGE 2050 PROJECTION

supply increased

STRATEGY 3: There is Enough Local

Rainfall to Meet All of LA’s 2050 Needs with New Capture Strategies

top - down

Storms provide more than 80 billion gallons of water in Los Angeles County with every inch of rainfall. With LA’s average 15 inches of rainfall per year, that’s more than 1 trillion gallons annually, exceeding twice the projected annual demand for 2050.

Not all rainfall contributes directly to the water supply due to geological and governance challenges. Therefore converting one inch of this rainwater to usable local water by 2050 would increase the total supply by 10%.

10% STORMWATER

10% STRATEGY 3

60

INCREASED SUPPLY

RECYCLED WATER

OUTDOOR SINGLE FAMILY

STORMWATER CAPTURE

LOCAL NATURAL RECHARGE

GROUND WATER

RESIDENTIAL

INDOOR MULTI-FAMILY

MANAGED RECHARGE

COMMERCIAL

CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT LA AQUEDUCT

IMPORTED

OTHER INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

reduced demand

bottom - up

LOCAL WATER USAGE 2050 PROJECTION

supply increased

STRATEGY 4: Improving Groundwater

Quality Will Make Currently Unusable Local Water Available for Use

top - down

Efforts to clean up historical groundwater contamination, including saltwater and organic pollutants, are occurring in LA County already. An additional 5% of water supply could be obtained locally by desalting just one-sixth of the 600,000 acre-feet of brackish groundwater currently present in the West Coast basin underlying LA County. Research groups at UCLA are pursuing additional emerging technologies to clean up groundwater contamination in a way that is less energy-intensive and more cost-effective than imported water.

5% GROUNDWATER

5% STRATEGY 4

62

INCREASED SUPPLY

LOCAL WATER USAGE 2050 PROJECTION

RECYCLED WATER

OUTDOOR SINGLE FAMILY

STORMWATER CAPTURE NATURAL RECHARGE

LOCAL RESIDENTIAL

GROUND WATER

INDOOR

MANAGED RECHARGE

MULTI FAMILY BRACKISH DESAL

CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT LA AQUEDUCT

COMMERCIAL

IMPORTED

OTHER INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

supply increased

STRATEGY 5: Recycling Water Can

Return Increasingly Significant Proportions of Water Back to the Local Supply

top - down

Currently, Los Angeles County recycles only 4% of its water. If the County recycled eight times as much water as it does today, it could eliminate another 30% of its reliance on imported water.

While that may seem extreme, Israel – which also has a limited water supply – recycles 85% of its wastewater.

30% RECYCLED WATER

30% STRATEGY 5

64

INCREASED SUPPLY

LOCAL WATER USAGE 2050 PROJECTION

RECYCLED WATER

OUTDOOR SINGLE FAMILY

STORMWATER CAPTURE

LOCAL NATURAL RECHARGE

RESIDENTIAL

INDOOR

GROUND WATER MULTI-FAMILY

MANAGED RECHARGE

COMMERCIAL CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT

LA AQUEDUCT

OTHER IMPORTED INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

supply increased

water

top - down

2050 STRATEGIES

66

To ensure a secure future and achieve The UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge 100% local water goals, LA County must pursue a combination of strategies that include decreased demand and increased supply through stormwater capture, recycling, and groundwater remediation.

100% local water is an economic and strategic necessity–and it is possible. Ensuring a secure future means investing in and advancing policies that will incentivize appropriate water use and make local water the most energy- and cost-efficient option.

100%

OUTDOOR

RECYCLED WATER

SINGLE FAMILY

11% STORM WATER STORMWATER CAPTURE

RESIDENTIAL

INDOOR

LOCAL NATURAL RECHARGE

GROUND WATER

MULTIFAMILY

MANAGED RECHARGE

BRACKISH DESAL

COMMERCIAL

CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT

OTHER COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT LA AQUEDUCT

supply increased

IMPORTED INSTITUTIONAL INDUSTRIAL

reduced demand

bottom - up

bottom - up

LOCAL WATER 2050 PROJECTION

conclusion

68

NEXT STEPS

70

We examined the interchange between resources that shape LA County by organizing the Sustainable Grand Challenge topics of energy, water, and ecosystem health in terms of supply and demand. This approach examined the potential impact of each strategy toward reaching ambitious 2050 sustainability goals. It does so by considering relative contributions as compared to complementary and competing strategies.

Enhanced Ecosystem Health by 2050: A striking characteristic of LA County is its division into separate urban and natural regions. Despite this fact, rapid growth has led to much unplanned development in areas beyond desired boundaries. These regions, despite being some of the fastest-growing parts of the County, are also most likely to experience some of the greatest adverse effects of climate change, and they therefore bear the repercussions of strained resources more severely than elsewhere.

One way to protect natural areas throughout the County is to restrict development to urban areas.

Many cities around the world are developing plans and policies to restrict sprawl. Similarly, we seek not only to consolidate resources, but also to preserve natural habitats and ecosystems for generations to come.

100% Renewable Energy by 2050: In terms of achieving 100% renewable energy by 2050, we imagined the

energy profile of Los Angeles County by first understanding the problems that our rapid consumption of fossil fuels has created. With smog and pollution negatively impacting human health and global warming, our need for renewable and clean sources of energy for buildings and transportation has never been greater.

This study examined the consumption of energy both by cars and buildings.

We found that if ridership for public transportation increased, energy demand would be greatly reduced.

Currently, LA is synonymous with traffic and congestion, with millions of cars in the region creating not only pollutants and toxic emissions, but also countless hours of lost productivity due to inefficient planning and development. By continuing to support development around public transit hubs, LA can work to encourage new residents to settle in denser neighborhoods, where owning a car becomes an option rather than a necessity. Initiatives to promote electric vehicles, ridesharing programs, and autonomous technologies will reduce strain on the freeways and reduce the required space for parking, which currently amounts to 14% of the County’s incorporated land. Making our transportation network truly sustainable also means integrating a more sophisticated bidirectional smart grid that allows the built environment and mobile vehicles to work cooperatively with 100% renewable energy sources. This added real estate will also allow us to apply renewable energy sources in more efficient and

diverse locations.

We also explored how improvements in building efficiency combined with both distributed and centralized renewable energy generation could change the energy profile of LA County by 2050. Our evaluations show that solar alone can render acceptable results. LA County can expect higher home-cooling costs, especially with hidden expenses for distributing water and other resources.

However, adopting advanced technologies and practices to improve building efficiency, combined with smart growth and planning, can significantly offset an energy crisis.

100% Locally Sourced Water by 2050: LA County is not unique in its struggles to effectively manage and utilize its water resources. This challenge touches the lives of many billions of individuals around the globe.

California’s multi-year droughts are symptomatic of what’s to come — an uncertain future filled with conflicts for water rights. With much of the County’s water supply imported, the time to go local is now.

Our analyses demonstrated that even small changes in behavior and water management could result in a significant shift toward local water. By combining simple water conservation and efficiency strategies, both inside and outside of homes and businesses, the County could reduce water demand by rates close to 30%. The capture and reuse of stormwater and

other wastewater is an underutilized water management strategy in present-day LA. Los Angeles lags in its water capture and recycling policies.

These technologies and strategies can be deployed at a variety of scales and in a range of situations. We found that there is in fact plenty of local rainfall to supply our water needs if combined with reuse and other water-maximizing strategies.

As we begin to imagine Los Angeles in 2050, we know that combatting the city’s challenges cannot be carried out alone. Our work has sought to promote dialog and research through collective action as we build a sustainable LA by 2050.

THE Faculty NOW INSTITUTE

Thom Mayne Eui-Sung Yi Andrew Liang

Assistants Philippe Maman Bridget Ackeifi Carolyn Ng

of California Los ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS University Angeles Associate Vice Chancellor for Environment and Sustainability Sustainable LA Grand Challenge Mark Gold

Director, Sustainable LA Grand Challenge Cassie Rauser

Xuequi Bai Samuel Bent Omar Haque Shobitha Jacob Chenguang Li Andrew Liang Xi Liao Marieh Mehrannezhad Apurva Purandare Andre Simapranata Jiani Song Tuo Sun Wei-Chieh Tsai Duo Wang Jue Wang Runzhi Wang Shuoyang Wang Kun Yang Hun Tao Yu

Advisors Hitoshi Abe, UCLA Alan Berger, MIT Heidi Creighton, BuroHappold Engineering Neil Denari, UCLA John Enright, SCI-Arc Bill Fain, Johnson Fain David Herd, BuroHappold Engineering Gideon Sussman, BuroHappold Engineering John Kaliski Andrew Liang, USC Michael LoGrande, Los Angeles Planning Director Greg Lynn, UCLA Erin McConahey, Arup Mark McVay, SmithGroup JJR Matt Petersen, City of Los Angeles Albert Pope, Rice University Stephanie Reich, City of West Hollywood Roger Sherman, UCLA Warren Techentin, USC Charles Waldheim, Harvard University

ESRI Joe Liao Jinwu Ma Pascal Mueller Brooks Patrick Paul Yoshitomi

Martin Brennan Isaac Thomas Brown Jennifer Chan Gonzalo Cortes Alex Hall Janine Henri Juan Matute Katie Mika Karthik Nithyanandam Brianna Pagan Stephanie Pincetl Erik Porse Katharine Reich Andy Rutkowski Brad Shaffer Richard Wirz

California Energy Commission Dave Aschuckian Perry Fletcher Steven Mac Cam-Giang Nguyen

Southern California Association of Governments Simon Choi Jung Seo Frank Wen Ying Zhou

Los Angeles County Department of Regional Planning Tina Fung

Morphosis Architects Thom Mayne Eui-Sung Yi Philippe Maman Lily Bakhshi