3.4 Multan Metropolitan Area Population

from adjacent small cities and towns visit every day. These elements bring vitality and diversity to the urban fabric in the form of culture, intricate economy, specific built up environmental and climatic conditions.

Multan continues grow along its intra city radial roads and the built-up area of the city which was just 30 square kilometres in 1947 has increased to 185 square kilometres in 2016.

Figure 5. Built-up and Walled City areas in Multan metropolitan area. Source: Background satellite imagery from Google Earth (accessed on 2017-11-30).

Figure 6. Top view of Multan city showing the urban fabric. Source: Satellite imagery from Google Earth (accessed on 2017-11-30). 13

Overall on the average, the urban growth has been 3.4 km2 during the last 20 years resulting in a 4% urban growth ratio (M. Gianinetto et al. 2014).

3.4 Multan Metropolitan Area Population

Multan metropolitan area has been administratively divided into four sub districts and these sub districts according to Punjab Local Government Ordinance (PLGO) 2003 called as towns. Thus, the metropolitan area consists of four towns, (a) Bosan Town, (b) Sher Shah Town, (c) Musa Pak Town and (d) Shah Rukne Alam Town.

The focus of this research study is on the urban heat island and its impacts on local urban population due to the high exposure of heat therefore it is vital to discuss the demographic aspects particularly the population, family structure and socio-economic characteristics. The recent official population census in Pakistan has been carried out in 2017 and the analysis of the population has been based on it. The urban population in the metropolitan area according to 1998 census were 1.78 million and in 2017 census it has been estimated around 2.86 million. The population of the metropolitan area over the last fifty years has been available from the census data and using this data population for the 2030 has been estimated.

The population of the metropolitan area has been on the increase with the average growth rate of 43278 persons per year. There are several factors behind the increase of this average

Figure 7. Multan metropolitan area and its sub-districts (towns).

Table 2. Population of the Multan Metropolitan Area (MMA) over the years. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. (1998). District Census Report Multan. Islamabad, p.25.

Year Population of MMA % Increase comparing to

1951 435,000 last census result 1961 1972 610,080 978,900 40 60

1981 1998

2017 1,379,000 1,789,966

2,865,061 41 30

60

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growth rate of population and the most dominant is the emigration to Multan from intermediate cities and rural areas of the southern Punjab because of the availability of labour related jobs and opportunities in the service and manufacturing sectors. The population of the metropolitan area is expected to reach approximately 3.46 million in the 2030 with this growth rate. Since the metropolitan area is composed of four different towns therefore population and density of each town in the metropolitan area has been estimated separately for 2030.

The overall density of the MMA in 1998 was 4,663 persons per square kilometer and in 2017 the density is 7481 persons per square kilometer and in 2030 the density will be 9034 persons per square kilometer. There has been an increase of 60% in density of the MMA from 1998 to 2017 over the 19 years which has resulted in the compact built up area in and around the urban core whereas in the peri-urban part of the MMA, it has resulted in the form of leap-frog built up areas. The MMA which consists of four towns and each town of MMA has been further divided into smaller administrative units called as union councils. The population age and sex data of MMA in the 1998 and 2017 were obtained from the 1998 and 2017 census reports at the union council level. According to the population data, the male and female population was 52.48% and 47.52% in 1998 respectively (PBS, 1998). In 2017 the male population has slightly decreased and according the 2017 census, the male and female population is 51.37% and 48.63% respectively (PBS, 2017).

Table 3. Projected population and density of the towns of metropolitan area. Towns Area (Km2) Population 1998 Density 1998 Population 2017 Density 2017 Population 2030

Density 2030 Bosan Town 141 445,675 3,161 773,566 5,486 968,852 6,871 Shah Rukne Alam 67 472,378 7,050 687,615 10,263 795,843 11,878 Musa Pak 56 447,813 7,997 658,964 11,767 830,445 14,829 Sher Shah 119 420,202 3,531 744,916 6,260 865,047 7,269

Total 383 1,786,069 2,865,061 3,460,186

75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34

25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 05-09 0-04

9,373 12,185 14,997 28,120 22,496 30,932 35,619 39,368

44,992 55,302 81,548 95,608 106,856 112,479 124,665 122,790 5,092 5,092 10,185 20,370 26,311 29,706 28,857 37,345

Female Male

47,529 50,924 67,899 96,756 101,000 89,966 117,126 114,580 13,246 16,189 27,963 47,096 36,794

52,983 55,927 61,814 70,644 85,362 130,986 150,119 164,836 170,723

192,799 194,271 11,146 9,753 19,506 33,439 43,193

48,766 47,373 61,306 78,025 83,599 111,465 158,837 165,804 147,691

190,883 182,524

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000

Figure 8. Sex and age structure of MMA population in 1998. Figure 9. Sex and age structure of MMA population in 2017.

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There are 30 union councils within the MMA and 74% of the population are concentrated within the 8 union councils covering an area of 103 square kilometres whereas rest of the 26% population is within 22 union councils covering an area of 280 square kilometres. The elderly population in MMA with an age group of 65 years and above accounts for 3.44% of the total population in 2017. The second most vulnerable group of population to UHI are children under five years of age. Besides this, people living in the high population density areas also susceptible to high temperatures.

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