The end of the road for urban car ownership?

Title Setting the scene Final Kevinpresentation McCullagh

00 XXX 2014

Cars used to be an unalloyed good

The long squeeze and alternatives

Squeeze on car use

Richer mobility service ecosystem

Higher parking costs Congestion charging

New mobility modes

Lower speed limits

Multi-modal apps

Traffic-calming measures

Seamless payments

Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones

1980s

2004

2014

2030

2040

High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA

ZipCar launches

London congestion nears pre-charging levels

Helsinki eliminates private-car ownership

DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015

1982

2003

2010

2020

2034

Athens Ring Odd/Even system

London congestion charging begins

Boris Bike scheme launched

Paris to ban diesel cars

Hamburg to ban cars from centre

There are more alternatives to car ownership now

Mobility services

Multimodal planner

Multimodal payment

Taxi hailing apps

Navigation

Parking services

Cost and convenience

(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)

Taxi

Luxury chauffeur Private car

Minicab Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber

Freefloating car sharing

Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj

Action zone

Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow

Point-to-point car sharing

Motorbike

Bus

e-bike Bike Shared bike

Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle

2km

5km

P2P car sharing

Back-to-base car sharing

Metro Shared Scooter

Walk

1km

For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite

Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides

Scooter Tram

Micro car sharing

10km

Typical urban journey length 15km+

Title 1 line But cars have never been so popular

+57% Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030

UK car sales

Euromonitor, 2015

2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

R

Modes share of daily journeys B u s/T r

am

Wal k TFL, Travel in London: Report 8 (2015)

Car

ail

% 12

Tube

20%

Other

% 35

% 24

5%

% 14

The car is London’s popular form of transport

Most London households have a car

54% of households have at least one car TFL, ‘Roads Task Force – Technical Note 12: How many cars are there in London and who owns them?’ (2013)

London is capital of gridlock

40% of UK’s gridlock is in London PRNewsire, ‘Gridlock on UK Roads Costs the Country’s Economy £4.3 Billion’ (2012)

London’s congestion is getting worse ...

82hrs 2013

96hrs 2014

Average time drivers spent stuck in traffic FT, ‘London becomes Europe’s gridlock capital’ (2015)

... and London is growing

10 m 2030

8.6m 2016

Mayor of London, ‘Mayor calls for new measures to secure the success of London's roads’ press release, February 2016

Young people still aspire to own their own car

75% of Gen Y drivers believe they are likely to be using their own, personal car in 5 years time

GFK, ‘Gen Y Drivers Are Much More Likely to Embrace Connected Car Features’, January 2015 (US, UK, Germany, Brazil, Russia, and China)

Better public transport isn’t always the answer

Tallin experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents.

+1.2% increase in demand for the service overall Fast Company, ‘Why The World’s Largest Experiment In Free Public Transportation Failed’, 2014

1.

Will Londoners trade private cars for on-demand access?

Gartner predicts that by 2020

10 % of today’s urban vehicle owners will replace them with on-demand vehicle access

Thilo Koslowski, Creating Innovations in the Automotive and Smart Mobility Industry Primer for 2016, Gartner, January 2016

2.

Can ‘smart’ technology squeeze more of existing roads?

3.

What are the options for increasing road capacity?

Forum Uber, car clubs and driverless cars:

The end of the road for urban car ownership?

#PlanFrm @BloombergNEF @planstrategic

Car ownership alternatives Survey results 15 March 2016

Why do this research?

Decades of pressure on cars

Why do this research?

Decades of pressure on cars Wide range of alternatives

Why do this research?

Decades of pressure on cars Wide range of alternatives But what do consumers think?

3 Hunches

3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive

3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive

Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars

What we did Car clubs

FREE

FREE

Free fuel

Driving in bus lanes

Free parking

Mini cab prices plunging

Who we spoke to n = 883

Age 18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

12%

24%

25%

13%

17%

7%

Where people live/work

Zone 1

Car ownership / access status

30% Private car

Someone elses car

Car sharing

No access

Zone 2 Zone 3-4

57%

13%

4%

25%

Zone 5-8

19%

23%

28%

Younger people are more likely to consider a car club

Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant

22% 18-44 yrs

11% 44+ yrs

People who have access to a car are more likely to consider a car club

Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant

23% access

11% own

People who live or work in zones 1-4 are more likely to consider a car club

Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant

22% zones 1-4

9% zones 5-8

Question

What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives?

100%

What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives?

Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? 509 respondents

10% 0%

not at all interested

11% of car owners are very interested in car sharing as an neutral alternative to their 11% own car very interested

70%

19%

Face value

not at all interested

What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives... i f they didn’t have to pay for fuel?

Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if you didn’t have to pay for fuel with this shared car? 509 respondents

neutral

11% very interested

FREE

Face value

Free fuel

55%

definitely not

23% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club offered them free fuel

22% 23% neutral definitely

FREE

Face value

Free fuel

definitely not

What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives...

23% neutral definitely

if they could drive in bus lanes?

Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car were allowed in bus lanes? 509 respondents

FREE

Face value

Free fuel

Bus lanes

16% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car was allowed in bus lanes

definitely not

55%

neutral

22%

16% definitely

FREE

Face value

Free fuel

Bus lanes

definitely not

What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives...

neutral

16% definitely

if parking was free?

Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car allowed you to park for free across London? 509 respondents

FREE

FREE

Face value

Free fuel

Bus lanes

Free parking

50%

definitely not

31% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car could park for free

19% 31% neutral definitely

FREE

FREE

Face value

Free fuel

Bus lanes

Free parking

definitely not

What % of people would give up their car

31% neutral

if Minicabs halved in price?

definitely

FREE

FREE

Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if minicabs/Uber were to half in price (e.g. £4 for a 30 minute trip)? 509 respondents

Face value

Free fuel

Bus lanes

Free parking

Minicab prices

55%

definitely not

24% of car owners would definitely give up their car if minicabs were to half in price

22% 24% neutral definitely

FREE

FREE

Face value

Free fuel

Bus lanes

Free parking

Minicab prices

definitely not

What % of people would give up their car in favour of alternatives?

70%

66%

55%

22% neutral

19%

18%

definitely

11%

16%

23%

50%

19%

31%

59%

17% 24%

FREE

FREE

Face value

Bus lanes

Free fuel

Free parking

Minicab prices

definitely not

Interestingly, similar proportions reflected at the full sample view

70% 66% 55% 50%

59%

57% 55% 43% 40% 48%

26% 22% 19%

19% 17%

25%

23% 31% 24%

19%

20% 22%

25%

18%

neutral definitely

11% 16%

Car owners 509 respondents

20% 31% 40% 30%

Full sample 883 respondents

To conclude

1 2 3 4

Most owners are not open to giving up their cars Young londoners are more open to alternatives

Suburbanites are least open to giving up their cars

Car clubs with free parking are the most attractive alternative

3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive

Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars

3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive

Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars

3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive

Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars

3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars

Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive

Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars

We join the dots

www.plan.london