The shape of things to come

The shape of Title things to come Final presentation Kevin McCullagh

00 XXX March 2016 2014

Core My journey message

Mech Eng

Industrial design

Product strategy

Title Sub-heading

Title Subtitle

Title Sub-heading

Title Sub-heading

Title Sub-heading

Section

Title 1 line

Clarity at the front-end

Slide 9

Section

Title 1 line

Slide 10

‘ You can use an eraser on the drafting table or a sledge hammer on the construction site.’

Frank Lloyd Wright

Product strategy

Working out what to do next around products ...and why

Consumer Tech

Transportation

Joining the dots between opportunities, strategy and management

Opportunity scoping

Strategy development

Design management

Consumer research

Experience vision

Organisation and culture

Market analysis

Value conception

Capability development

Industry foresight

Portfolio planning

Tools and processes

‘ Strategy must be created from the future backwards.’

Strategy from the future backwards 2015

2016

2017

Gary Hamel

2018

2019

2020

Section

Slide 16

Title future The 1 line is hazy

Core message Cynicism

‘ Never make forecasts – especially about the future’ Sam Goldwyn

Future is too important Title Subtitle to be left to charlatans

‘ The future is part of every designer’s job description.’

Mark Newson

Foresight

Being ‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’

Foresight

Being ‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’

Foresight

Being ‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’ based on ‘deep insights into the trends.’

Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad, ‘Competing for the Future’, 1994

Foresight

Makes sense of a world in flux Situates strategy within a future context

Foresight

Makes sense of a world in flux Situates strategy within a future context But’s it’s not about predicting the future.

Section

Trends provide reference points in a future context

Frame and focus

Section

Title 1 line

Slide 26

Section

Title 1 line

Focus on a small number of relevant trends

Types of trends Social, Economic, Technological (SET)

Design

Society

Economy

Technology

SET trend levels Meta trends

Global interchange

High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends

Economic stagnation

Macro trends Developments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics

Austerity culture

Polarised prosperity

Urban renaissance

Micro trends Particular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics

Downsizing

Access over ownership

Returnment

Lost generation

Squeezed middle classes

Super-rich migration

Hyper-dense city cores

Spaces of connection

Creative cities

Housing shortage

Micro enterprise

Small indulgences

Noveau Briche

Boomers have the cash

Space tourism

Cycling surge

Latinisation

Redefined town centres

Meta trends

Social fragmentation

High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends

Breakdown of traditional social ties leading to individualisation

Knowledge society Education, intelligence and creativity are more highly regarded

Climate anxiety

Network society

A range of concerns around climate change

People learning how to leverage and negotiate an increasingly connected world

Social

Cloud services

Pervasive role of server-side data storage and processing

Economic

Technological Internet of things

Networks of connected objects that sense and share information

Economic stagnation

Big data

Slow growth and declining living standards

Benefits of being able to store, process and access huge amounts of information

Global interchange

A new interdependent phase of globalisation, in which influence flows in many directions

Macro trends

Developments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics

Trust crisis

Search for authenticity Culture of emotions Ageing societies

Urban renaissance

Polarised prosperity

Labour imbalances

Learning diversity

Retail revolution

Austerity culture

Productivity push

Culture of fear

New conventions

Behaviour change

Consumerisation of healthcare

Sustainability tensions Hardware revival

Innovation imperative

Perpetual contact

Smart systems

Micro trends

Particular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics

Corporate backlash

Data security awareness

Moments of connection

Housing shortage Micro enterprise

Child tracking

Creative cities

Boomers have the cash

Smarter cities Cycling boom Redefined town centres Brand cathedrals Online education channels

Medical tourism

Integrated retail

Optimised life Connected Car

Access over ownership Simultaneous translation Behaviour sensing

Human augmentation Hybrid IT

Presumers

Corporate incubators

Civilian drones

Filter

Society Trust crisis

Search for authenticity Culture of emotions

Corporate backlash

Selection criteria Culture of fear

Data security awareness New conventions

Moments of connection Ageing Child tracking societies Creative cities Boomers have Urban the cash rennaissance Smarter cities Perpetual Cycling boom Polarised contact Redefined townLearning centres prosperity Brand cathedralsdiversity Housing shortage Optimised life Labour Medical tourism Online Retail education channels imbalances revolution Integrated retail Connected Car Micro enterprise Consumerisation of Access over ownership healthcare Austerity culture Simultaneous translation Behaviour change Behaviour sensing Smart Civilian drones systems

Resource volatility

Economy

Sustainability tensions

Human augmentation Hybrid IT Hardware revival Presumers

Innovation imperative Corporate incubators

Technology

Consumer focus Business relevance Inspiring

Design trend filtering relevance 1 Mobile Trends potentially applicable to mobile handsets

consumer relevance 2 Mass Trends that could appeal to and be executed for budget conscious Indians

3 Clustering Similar trends

were combined

workshop 4 Design Trends that related to hot issues were prioritised

Influence

Take a long view Long term

Time

Influence

Beware the fads

Long term

Short term

Time

Situate in a historical context Slide 53

Dynamic Futurism

Progressive and individual tech

A calm, simplified and usable expression of technology that is a little dull for some

Pioneering and masculine language that expresses premium technology

Very clean, simple, high-tech and human. But a little cheap and not quite stylish enough. Needs an update – some colour would improve it.

Popularity

Simple and comfortable tech.

Nice and simple forms which look comfortable and humane to touch.

Josh Atkin, Head of Strategy, Jellymon Shanghai

CiCi Jiang, Design Researcher, Asus, Shanghai

Popularity

Slide 46

Soft Minimalism

Feels very different and individual.

Prof. Huang Qun, School of Art & Design, University of technology, Wuhan

Very pioneering, sharp, strong and masculine.

Will appeal to the guys who’ll like the edgy, sharp forms and the high-quality finish.

This has an edge! It is aggressive and masculine but still quite subtle and very high-tech.

Anonymous, Industrial and UX Designer, Lenovo, Beijing

Tom Shi, Founder, Leaping Creative, Guangzhou

Punkt DP01 (Jasper Morrison) Apple MacBook

Apple iMac

Motorola PEBL V6

Samsung SGH-E590 (Jasper Morrison)

HTC Hero

Apple iPhone 3G

Soft, human and popular. Always there and always will be.

Hugo Caillerton, Founder, Sunlit Design, Guangzhou

2005

2006

2007

Evolution A well established trend in the West and Japan that is strongly associated with high design of British designer Jasper Morrison and his Japanese counterpart Naoto Fukasawa. The shift to understatement and the arrival of Apple in China in recent years has helped drive this trend mainstream in the last few years.

2008

2009

2010

2011

Inhibitors Drivers Too simple in its purist form

Shift to simplicity

CMF is perceived as cheap

Aspiration for Apple Humanised technology

Aava, Twist phone Plank, Miura stool

2012

2013

2014

2005

Lamborghini, Murcialago

2006

Nokia, Prism

2007

Relevance

Evolution

This trend is well suited to Nokia’s reduction design strategy and the wider shift to simplicity in China. It is seen as a simple expression of technology that is comfortable and easy use.

However in its purest form it is seen by many as cheap, poor quality, simple and even dull.

With roots in early 20th century Futurism, this long wave niche trend is most evident in high-end furniture, homewares and transportation, most notably in Lamborghini’s recent range of supercars which arrived in China in 2006. While Nokia’s Prism and HTC’s Diamond exemplified the trend in mobile phones, there has been little recent application of the trend in the world of consumer electronics.

Male

/

Additional expert quotes

Female

HTC, Diamond

2008

2009

2010

2011

Inhibitors Drivers Too masculine

Premium expression of tech Strong personal expression Progressive associations

2012

2013

2014

Relevance A trend that is well suited to a premium expression of technology. In its most overt form, it would be too aggressive for Nokia’s reduction design strategy. However dialled-down interpretations could work well. Its expressive aesthetic suits the need for Hyper Social to communicate personal style but it has strong masculine connotations.

Male

/

Additional expert quotes

Female

Visibility

Hype cycle

Peak of inflated Expectations

Plateau of productivity

Slope of enlightenment

Trough of disillusionment Technology trigger Time Source: Gartner

Visibility

Hype cycle Warped lens Peak of inflated Expectations

Plateau of productivity

Slope of enlightenment

Trough of disillusionment Technology trigger

Ravine of demise

Valley of oblivion Time

Tech is not inevitable

Section

Title 1 line

33%

don’t use their head-up display

Source: Automakers Spending Billions on Technologies That Many Consumers Don’t Use, J.D. Power, August 2015

Change and continuity

Multiple lens

Users

Target market Industry sector context

Experts

Trends

Market data

Section

Title 1 line

Sociology before technology

History or future?

Technology is only one driver of the future

Feminisation

The rise and social impact of women

Section

Title 1 line

We shape technology and technology shapes us

Get under the surface

Beyond pattern recognition

Once is an accident

Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence

Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend!

Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend!

OK, but why?

Analysis

Have a point of view

Trends rarely concur Elaborate

Organic Maximlism Faceted Cubism

Exaggerated Details

Extravagant Organic

Crystal Detailing Gold & Black Urban Angst

Emphasised Feat...

Delight & Humour

Variable Wave Tapered Trapesium

Expressive

Protective Pattern

Wires

Futurism

Crisp Cutaways ObjectWeave Outline Square

Decorative Array

Pop Dots

Chinese Retro Manga Effects...

Decorative Lines High Tech Pops

Browns & Coppers

Sleek Tech

Modern Heritage Creature Features Surface Pattern Pop Cute Micro Metal Tactility Patterned Colour

Playful

Natural Life

Senseware Floral Motif

Layered Skin

Olympic Pattern Emotional Exp.

Micro Repetition Organic Petal

Sequential Lines

Heritage PixilationHybrid

Macro Repetition

Tough Technical

Retro Futurism

Serious

White & Gold

Quilted

Pleated Surface

Granular Montage

Perforated Pattern

Splice Transition Modern Craft

Craft & Utility

Soft Utility

Restrained Organic

Long Life Design Real Material Com.

Pillowed Purity Minimalism

Truncated Solids Uber Matte Architectural Com..

Concrete Wood & Black Light Wood Contrasting Com. Bold Bodies Cool Minimalism

Frame White & Wood

Tonal Families Layered Tones Pop Light Follows Form Dual Colour

Smart Organic Organic Minimalism Casual Modularity

Warm Metal

Mechanic Cork

Retro Modern Lux Matte Black Charcoal

Dark Sumptuous ...

Naturals

Block Primaries

Bright Blocks

Romantic Hues Transparency Nude Hue Tones Pastel Accents Pastels Blocked TonalTinted GreysTransparency Vibrant Minimalism

Dimple

Soft Swell

Smooth Transition Fluid Wrap

MonoGradients Colour

Tonal Textures

Soft Minimalism

Primary Accents

Internal Glow Matte & Rubber ...

White Reflected Diffusion

Simple

POV ingredients

What is changing? And why?

What opportunities do these changes enable?

How can these opportunities be profited from?

POV tests

Credible Coherent Compelling Commercial

Mobility

Section

Title 1 line

Section

More1car Title linedeterrents and alternatives

Richer mobility service ecosystem New mobility modes

Squeeze on car use

Multi-modal apps

Higher parking costs

Seamless payments

Congestion charging Lower speed limits Traffic-calming measures Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones

1980s

2004

2014

2030

2040

High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA

ZipCar launches

London congestion nears pre-charging levels

Helsinki eliminates private-car ownership

DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015

1982

2003

2010

2020

2034

Athens Ring Odd/Even system

London congestion charging begins

Boris Bike scheme launched

Paris to ban diesel cars

Hamburg to ban cars from centre

Mobility landscape Mobility services

Multimodal payment

Multimodal planner

Taxi hailing apps

Navigation

Parking services

Cost and convenience

(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)

Taxi

Luxury chauffeur Private car

Minicab Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber

Freefloating car sharing

Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj

Action zone

Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow

Point-to-point car sharing

Motorbike

Bus

e-bike Bike Shared bike

Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle

5km

Back-to-base car sharing

Shared Scooter

Source:

2km

P2P car sharing

Metro

Walk

1km

For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite

Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides

Scooter Tram

Micro car sharing

10km

Typical urban journey length 15km+

Section

Title line Tallin1experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents.

+1.2% increase in demand for the service overall

Section

Titlesales Car 1 lineat all time high UK car sales hit all time record levels in 2015 Source: SMMT, 2015

+57% Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030 Source: Euromonitor, 2015

2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Section

2025

Change

Continuity

Less diesel, more petrol hybrid

Private ownership will remain the dominant model

Less pollution, more congestion More driver-assist technologies

Slow growth of EVs, predominantly in city centre car clubs

Apple and Google will own Infotainment

Driverless cars will be just around corner...

Less UI

Section

Title 1 line

Slide 65

Section

Slide 66

Title 1 line Drivers are already facing information overload

17,000

Call-outs to the UK’s AA breakdown service per month from drivers baffled by unfamiliar warning lights

Source: The AA, September 2015

Section

Slide 67

Titleage An 1 line of distraction

Causes of workplace distraction – Open-plan offices – Emphasis on collaboration – Multi-tasking – Email / Social media – VoIP calls – Multiple devices

Section

Slide 68

Title 1 line Distraction is the third biggest cause of crashes after drink driving and speeding.

Source: The Role of HMI in Addressing Automated Vehicle Safety Issues, TU-Auto, 2016

Slide 69

Section

Title 1 line Handsfree doesn’t mean safe

Reduction in reaction times

56% 46% 18%

using a hand-held phone using a hands-free phone after drinking the legal limit of alcohol

Source: RAC & Transport Research Laboratory, 2008

Section

Slide 70

Title 1 line

The answer is not more screens #SiliconValleyDoesn’tHaveAllTheAnswers

The rise of ‘chat bots’

Section

Title 1 line

Slide 72

Section

Slide 73

Title 1 line Contextual awareness

Multiple contexts – traffic and weather conditions – vehicle surroundings – driver’s diary –d river behaviour, attention and likely comprehension – r obot’s confidence in handling road conditions

Section

Slide 74

Title 1 line

More natural interactions

Section

Slide 75

Title 1 line

Instinctive interactions

Section

Title 1visceral More line interactions

Source: Jaguar Land Rover Bike Sense. Seat shoulder taps the & rings a bicycle bell if it senses a cyclist near the car and Door handles ‘buzz’ to prevent doors being opened into the path of bikes

History as Cabins or future? simulators?

‘ hold strong opinions weakly…

If you must forecast then forecast often – and be the first to prove yourself wrong.’

Paul Saffo

We join the dots @kevinmccull www.plan.london

Track and tack

Future context

Assumptions about developments that could influence the development of the service

Infrastructure / Legislation Weekend night tube

Technology

Ultra Low Emissions Zone

Crossrail

From September 2015, Jubilee, Victoria and most of the Piccadilly, Central and Northern tube lines will run all night on Fridays and Saturdays.

TfL proposal to limit road vehicles during business hours in central London to be zero or low emissions

Services will begin in May 2015 between Liverpool Street and Shenfield and will be extended to other parts of the route during 2018 and 2019

iBeacons

Smart watches

Some will introduce features that interface with cars

Bluetooth LE devices that aid accuracy of indoor positioning and local notifications

Contactless payment

5G networks

Fifth generation of mobile networks that will deliver dramatically faster connection speeds

Connected cars

Mass adoption as readers are more widely rolled out and RFID is integrated into phones and smart watches

Cars with internet connection deeply integrated into driver and passenger experience

Autonomous vehicles Level 2

Level 3

At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping.

2015

2016

2017

Level 4

The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions.

The car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides a ‘sufficiently comfortable transition time’ for the driver to do so.

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Fully driverless cars maybe available but not affordable

2024

2025