Mobility futures

Trends day Mobility futures 31 July 2019

The office

Perspective

CASE

Vision of the future of mobility (2017)

C A S E Connected

Autonomous

Shared

Electric

CASE

Vision of the future of mobility (2017)

SERIOUS DELAYS AHEAD

C A S E Connected

Autonomous

Shared

Electric

Visibility

AVs have been massively over hyped Gartner hype cycle Peak of inflated Expectations

Plateau of productivity

Slope of enlightenment

Trough of disillusionment Technology trigger

Ravine of demise

Valley of oblivion

Time

Mobility infrastructure roll out slower than Silicon Valley speeds

1908 Households owning cars

Model T enters production 100%

1926 1937 Route 66 established

Golden gate bridge opens

1952

First walk/don’t walk signal in NY

1975

First McDonalds drive thru

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

1900 US Buerau Census data

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

A more nuanced view of CASE

C A S E Connecting to everything

Augmented driving

Shared kerbspace

Electric everything

26 BOO 14 .05. KED :00 18

26RESER 14 .05. VED :00 18

C

Connected to everything

Headline 30pt Connectivity is the new priority Autonomous vehicle – Operates in isolation – Uses sensors to see where other vehicles are – Limited low-range and low speed

Cooperative-automated vehicle – Uses both autonomous and cooperative capabilities – Vehicle senses/receives message i.e. safety hazard – Automatically performs corrective task

Cooperative vehicle – Operates based on nearby vehicles behaviours – Uses connectivity to expand individual perception capability (i.e. seeing behind corners) – Communicates with infrastructures and other road-users

Headline 30pt V2X V2N

V2G Vehicle to Grid (power)

V2V

V2P

V2V Vehicle to Vehicle V2N Vehicle to Network (internet) V2P Vehicle to Pedestrians V2I Vehicle to Infrastructure

V2G

V2I

Headline Search for30pt new revenue streams

Content platforms

Service platforms

Data platforms

Big Tech and car brands looking to offer in-car media services:

There is a hive of activity exploring wide spectrum of non-media based digital services:

Other are exploring ways to monetize the data stream generated by connected vehicles:

– Gaming – Video – Audio/music

– Real time traffic and location updates – In car bookings and payments – Location based advertising

– Traffic monitorimg – Vehicle performance – Driving style and safety

Holoride x30pt Headline Audi In-car VR experience platform

Content platform

Honda Dream Headline 30pt Drive In car service integration for drivers and passengers

Service platform

Dovu Headline 30pt Rewards drivers with crypto-tokens for sharing their mobility data

Data platform

A

Augmented driving

x

Machines have been overestimated, and humans underestimated

[I aim to make] ‘machines slightly more intelligent — or slightly less dumb.’

John Giannandrea, Head of AI, Apple

The tech isn’t ready

Scenarios that GM’s self-driving cars have trouble handling or aren’t being tested broadly in San Francisco

Changing lands Tunnels U-turns Construction zones Orange cones on road Pull-over at curb Narrow two-way street Distinguishing between motocycles and bikes

Source: The Information

Going around cars trying to parallel park

‘Soft’ poles that separate lanes

Unprotected left turns

Passing a cyclist

Crossing solid white lines

Bushes that protrude into lanes

Go through steam emanating from manholes ‘Zipper merge’ (when two lanes merge into one) Intersections with faint traffic lights

Heavy rain Low sun Going around cross-traffic that’s stuck in intersection

Overtrust

noun The growing tendency of humans to place unwarranted trust in, and defer to, automated technology

Most tasks are best completed with a mix of...

Human strengths

Machine strengths

Judgement Empathy Creativity Improvisation Leadership Mode shifting

Following rules Analysis Speed Accuracy Repetition Always on

Human Machine Interlace

Human strengths

Machine strengths

Judgement Empathy Creativity Improvisation Leadership Mode shifting

Following rules Analysis Speed Accuracy Repetition Always on

AV technologies will first help make human drivers safer

Volvo driver monitoring

1/3 of road accidents in the US are caused by intoxication NHTSA

Volvo driver monitoring

?

Safer interventions

Detection

Interventions

Eyes closed Swerving Lack of steering Slow reactions Eyes looking down

Driver prompts Limiting speed Stop and park Call assistance

?

S Trends day

Shared kerbspace

Slide

27

Cities are becoming more interventionist

Reducing air quality and congestion have become top priorities ... balanced with meeting economic goals

Zonification Urban zoning

Dynamic kerbspace

Fixed zones

Dynamic zones

Crit’Air scheme – When entering Paris or Lyon, vehicles must display an emissions sticker – Authorities can restrict which vehicles can enter when air quality drops

Digital kerb management Dynamically manage where and when vehicles park, pick-up/set-down and unload

City benefits – Raise road and kerb productivity – Generate new revenue streams to replace falling parking income – Reduce backoffice costs – Gain insights into road and kerb usage patterns

Coord.co Kerbside management

Booking ‘virtual’ loading bays

26 BOOK 14 .05. ED :00 18

26RESER 14 .05. VED :00 18

Kerb by Grid Smarter Cities is a Kerbside management platform for smart cities

E Trends day

Electric everything

Slide

34

Slow car adoption

Cities investing in electrifying public transport

An explosion of start-up driven micromobility options

Electric cars are coming ... but slowly

Toyota’s planned range of electric and hybrid cars, annouced June 2019

Tesla’s global sales fell by 30 percent in Q1 2019

Brakes on adoption – Unlikely to reach price parity with petrol cars for another decade – Lack of charging infrastructure

... Chinese brands will probably dominate

C-More concept, LeapMotor

Chinese EV advantages – A state investment priority for over a decade – 61EV brands and counting – Half the worlds EV charging stations are in China

Chinese infrastructure is already ahead

Shenzen’s Minle EV charging station

Chinese EV advantages – A state investment priority for over a decade – 61EV brands and counting – Half the worlds EV charging stations are in China

Electric buses are leading the way

China is way out ahead

Explosion in new formats Lightweight (sub-500kg) Sub 3 mile journeys Shared and electric

Many love e-scooters

but not everyone

Especially cities

Munich police stopping rider to breathalyse him

City backlash – Munich cracks down on growing trend of ‘drink-riding’ – London bans them outright

Race to breakeven

Innovation is still needed

Increased battery life Interchangeable, rechargeable batteries will reduce cost of ‘juicers’

Sturdier scooters Better materials, efficient construction and larger wheels

Thank you

C A S E Connecting to everything

Augmented driving

Shared kerbspace

Electric everything

26 BOO 14 .05. KED :00 18

26RESER 14 .05. VED :00 18

Perspective magazine

Subscribe at:

www.plan.london/subscribe

We join the dots www.plan.london