Choices on the road ahead

Choices on the road ahead Kevin McCullagh Eröffnung des Bereichs MOVE, Telekom Design Gallery 18 00 September XXX 2014 2017

The car had some foreseen consequences

Horses gave way to cars 25 24 22 19 5

8

1850 1870

14

8

3 4

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 2000

US Horse Population Million equines

Households owning cars

Knock-on effects took decades to unfold

1908

1926

1937

1952

1975

Model T enters production

Route 66 established

Golden gate bridge opens

First walk/don’t walk signal in NY

First McDonalds drive thru

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

1900 US Buerau Census data

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

The car had many unforeseen consequences

Out of town shopping

‘ It was easy to predict mass car ownership, but hard to predict Walmart.’

Carl Sagan

Amount of urban space dedicated to car parks

New leisure pursuits

The road trip

New industries

America’s biggest companies in 1955 Revenue

1. General Motors 2. Exxon Mobil 3. U.S. Steel 4. General Electric 5. Esmark 6. Chrysler 7. Armour 8. Gulf Oil 9. Mobil 10. DuPont Fortune 500

GM Exhibition assembly line 1955

America’s biggest companies in 2017 Market value

1. Apple Inc. 2. Alphabet Inc.

3. Microsoft 4. Amazon.com 5. Berkshire Hathaway 6. Facebook 7. Exxon Mobil 8. Johnson & Johnson 9. J. P. Morgan Chase 10. Wells Fargo Fortune 500

Apple HQ, Cupertino, CA

3 waves

2000

2010

2020

1

2

3

MaaS

EV

AV

Mobility as a service

Electric vehicles

Autonomous vehicles

2030

2040

Mobility as a Service Mobility services

Multimodal payment

Multimodal planner

Taxi hailing apps

Navigation

Parking services

Cost and convenience

(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)

Taxi

Luxury chauffeur Private car

Minicab Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber

Freefloating car sharing

Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj

Action zone

Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow

Point-to-point car sharing

Motorbike

Bus

e-bike Bike Shared bike

Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle

5km

Back-to-base car sharing

Shared Scooter

Source:

2km

P2P car sharing

Metro

Walk

1km

For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite

Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides

Scooter Tram

Micro car sharing

10km

Typical urban journey length 15km+

More car deterrents and alternatives

Richer mobility service ecosystem New & diverse mobility modes

Squeeze on car use

Multi-modal mobility app

Higher parking costs

Seamless payments

Congestion charging Lower speed limits Traffic-calming measures Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones

2025 Madrid aim to ban all diesel cars

1980s

2004

2014

2019

2030

2040

High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA

ZipCar launches

London congestion nears pre-charging levels

Oslo to ban all cars from city centre

Helsinki target to eliminates private-car ownership

DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015

1982

2003

2010

2020

2034

Athens Ring Odd/Even system

London congestion charging begins

London’s bike scheme launched

Paris to ban diesel cars

Hamburg to ban cars from centre

UK and France to ban diesel and petrol car production

Peak car?

UK car sales

2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007

SMMT (2015)

2009

2011

2013

2015

But cars have never been so popular (with drivers) UK car sales

2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007

SMMT (2015)

2009

2011

2013

2015

But cars have never been so popular (with drivers)

+57% Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030

UK car sales

Euromonitor, 2015

2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007

SMMT (2015)

2009

2011

2013

2015

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EVs

EV adoption forecasts Predictions and targets of EV penetration across global markets

100%

CEE

90%

Adam Whitmore

80% 70% 60%

Tony Seba Qian Zhang

50%

BNEF

40%

Carbon Tracker BNEF

Frost & Sullivan

30% 20%

Morgan Stanley

10% 2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Share of car sales Share of cars on the roads

43% of UK homes don’t have access to off-street parking National grid

More public charging stations, pronto!

20

16

15

12

10

8

US

GER 5

4

0

0 2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Projected global car sales (millions) DIESEL ELECTRIC Source: UBS

UK

2011

12

13

14

15

16

17

Public EV charging stations (thousands) Source: The Economist, 15 September 2017

AVs

AV adoption forecasts Predictions and targets of AV penetration across global markets

100%

Fehr & Peers McKinsey

90% 80%

Thatcham Thatcham

IoEEE

Amica Research

70% 60%

IMechE

Tony Seba

50%

UoTA

40%

Oliver Wyman BCG

30% KPMG

20%

Canalys

10% Share of car sales Share of cars on the roads

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Some foreseen consequences

Less accidents

Title 1 line gains Productivity

Source:

Image source: www.motortrend.com

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Impact on commute times?

Commuters

Average distribution commute times in New York, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Boston and Baltimore 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Less than 30 mins

30-59 min

50-59 min

90 min and greater

Work from home Commute times

Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Transportation & Utilities, 2013

Image source: VicHealth

Greater access to mobility

Greater social inclusion

Robo taxis reach parity with public transport ‘ When there’s no other dude in the car, the cost of Uber becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle’ Travis Kalanick Ex Uber CEO

$1.50/mile $1.25/mile $0.50/mile Current Uber

Robotics Trends, 2016

LA subway

Driverless taxi

Less foreseen consequences

Greater vehicle diversity

Meeting cars

Sleeper cars

Title 1 line Charger cars Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit

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Charger cars

Shoe shine

New jobs and businesses

Title 1freight Night line

Source:

Image source: www.wired.com

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Sociology before technology

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Title 1 line History or future?

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Slide 49

Technology Title 1 line is only one driver of the future

Feminisation

The rise and social impact of women

Technology ≠ Destiny

We shape technology and technology shapes us

Tallin experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents.

+1.2% increase in demand for the service overall

New taxes

C20th choices

We join the dots

@kevinmccull www.plan.london

Rise of affordable electric cars

Image source: axt.org.uk

The first wave of truly affordable EVs is already upon us

Commuters like their private bubble

Image source: axt.org.uk

Even if commuting by car takes longer, people would stick it out in traffic.

Some prefer this alone time, in comfort, to listen to music or just to reflect.

Core message

‘ Banishing the car from urban areas is becoming a common trend in many European cities.’

Jack Stewart, BBC Future news, February 2014

What happens when things go wrong?

Zero UI - A move towards effortless interactions with cars

Mixed economy

Title 1 line gains Productivity

Source:

Image source: www.motortrend.com

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Title 1 line Xx

Source:

Image source: www.wired.com

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Title 1 line gains Productivity

Source:

Image source: www.partcatalog.com

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Peter Campbell, October 16, 2016

We help companies work out what to do next with their products ...and why

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Image source: auto10.com

Title line on the We’re1now road to autonomous vehicles

Less congestion, more speed