Panorama 2025

PANORAMA BACK TO BASICS

Vol. 33

Spring 2025

TABLE OF CONTENTS V

LETTER FROM OUR CHAIR

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DAKAR GREENBELT STUDIO

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36 HOURS IN DETROIT

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NEW REALITY, OLD STORY

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ROLLING EASEMENTS

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FEMICIDE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

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CLIMATE RESILIENCY STUDIO: CENTRAL VERMONT

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FOOD-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT

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PRE-EVALUATION OF A HIGH-PROFILE SUBWAY PROJECT IN PHILADELPHIA USING SIMPLE METHODS

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COPENHAGEN STUDIO

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THE RISING TIDE OF RISK

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SOCIAL MEDIA’S ROLE IN PLANNING

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DETROIT STUDIO

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SAVING PAKISTAN’S GRID

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EARTHQUAKER

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REDEVELOPMENTINDUCED DISPLACEMENT IN ULAANBAATAR’S GER AREAS

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OPENINGS

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ENHANCING SAINT-LOUIS’S LOCAL CAPACITY

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 125

IMAGINING A STORMWATER TAX FOR BARRE, VT

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BOSTON STUDIO

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EAGLES URBANISM

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LITTLE MOMENTS

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LETTER FROM THE EDITORS

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ABOUT THE TEAM

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LETTER FROM OUR CHAIR

Welcome to the 33rd edition of Panorama!

Panorama is a curated collection of work from students in the Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of Pennsylvania’s Weitzman School of Design. Each year, this publication highlights the pressing issues shaping the field, showcasing how the next generation of planners, preservationists, designers, and urbanists are thinking critically about the future of cities.

For this year’s edition, we’ve found that thinking about the future requires going “Back to Basics.”

The work you read in this edition is inspired by questions that are fundamental to the field: What are the core principles that define our work? How do we reinforce the foundation of our field while adapting to new and emerging challenges?

These questions are more urgent as we – planners, preservationists, designers, and urbanists –seek to build resilient communities while grappling with climate change, housing crises, and evolving social and technological landscapes.

Through a diverse range of perspectives and research, this year’s edition explores how we can continue to connect with each other and our

communities. From in-depth critiques on rolling easements to essays on the intersection of social media and planning, the contributions in this issue emphasize the necessity of both resilience and adaptation. What does it mean to build not just for today, but for the future?

Panorama 2025 also features exceptional work from Fall 2024 studio courses, including: recommendations to mitigate urban heat island effects in Boston’s Grove Hall; innovative strategies for infilling vacant lots in Detroit; and a greenbelt framework aimed at strengthening resilience in and around Dakar, Senegal. These projects highlight the ways in which planning can serve as both a tool for addressing immediate urban challenges and a framework for long-term sustainability.

As you engage with this edition of Panorama, we invite you to reflect on the foundational principles that shape your understanding of community, resilience, and progress. The future of planning can shape equitable outcomes through open conversations, shared knowledge, and collective action. We hope that by the time you turn the last page, you feel challenged, inspired, and hopeful for the future of our cities.

Sincerely,

Megan S. Ryerson

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36 HOURS IN DETROIT Allie Hayes + Sarah Curry Dear Reader: the following example itinerary for a weekend in Detroit, Michigan is modeled after the “36 hours in…[insert city here]” travel blogs in the New York Times. In keeping with the journalistic tradition, the proposed activities take up more than 36 hours, but we’ll have you know that for us, it was love at first sight. In order to appeal to a planningminded audience, our recommendations include opportunities to learn more about and consider urban policy in Detroit, both historic and current.

We were inspired by witnessing both grassroots planning efforts to bring community together and the landmark investments made by the city’s Planning Department. We hope that either in person or in reading this travel blog, you’ll see that “Detroit never left” and that its magic is alive and well.

Michigan’s largest city, Detroit, is undeniably experiencing a renaissance. The city of about half a million, located between Lake Huron and Lake Erie, is gaining population for the first time in half a century. After experiencing significant white flight in the 60s and the collapse of the economy as the automotive industry condensed, the city was one of the biggest targets in the country of subprime mortgage lending during the 2008 housing crisis.

The local government was plagued by scandal, and Detroit gained the reputation of a city past the point of no return on its downward spiral. Despite the naysaying of outsiders, however, “Detroit never left” became a rallying cry for the residents who stayed. With passion and determination, actors big and small, public and private, got to work to make Detroit a great city to live in again. With a booming restaurant scene, new downtown office developments, and a growing urban agriculture sector, the Motor City is on the come-up. Still, Detroit’s appeal is in its cultural wealth and gritty determination.

FRIDAY 2:30 pm Take a shuttle to the rental car facility just a few minutes away from the airport and bask in the engine-light glow of the birthplace of American vehicular innovation. At the counter, ask for a car with Michigan plates and know that other drivers will have high expectations of you to drive fast.

3:30 pm – Make your way downtown En route to your lodging, go out of your way through downtown if you can – specifically all the way down Woodward Avenue and around the roundabout to take in the full scale of downtown.

While you’re driving, don’t block the Q-line, but be sure to gaze at the Coleman A. Young Municipal Center where hundreds (thousands?) of hardworking Michiganders go to work every day to make the city they love better and better.

This is the very place where the Strategic Neighborhood Fund (SNF) was designed to fund projects in 10 Detroit neighborhoods led by their local community development organizations.

With this incredible infusion of money and with support from other investors, completed projects went on to include affordable and market rate housing developments, road diets and bike lane construction, the preservation of green space, and economic development grants to small businesses.

4:00 pm – Double header at the Detroit Institute for the Arts and the Main Branch of the Detroit Public Library Once you’ve dropped off your belongings, take a trip to Kirby Street and Woodward Avenue where historic institutions meet you on every corner.

The Detroit Institute for the Arts, built in 1927, is home to a variety of permanent and contemporary works and exhibitions. Likely most beloved by and emblematic of the city are the 27 Detroit Industry Murals painted in place by Diego Rivera in 1933 which depict the conflict and harmony of humanity and technology. Across the street stands the Main Branch of the Detroit Public Library. Constructed in 1921 during the wave of funding from Andrew Carnegie, the library is adorned with enchanting stained glass and serves the city as well as nearby students at Wayne State University.

7:00 pm – Dig into East African food for dinner You’ll quickly find that it’s difficult to eat poorly in Detroit, and no establishment is better known for spearheading the burgeoning restaurant scene than Baobab Fare. Part of the delicious story told by the food is the courageous journey of the owners, Hamissi Mamba and Nadia Nijimbere, who moved to Detroit as refugees over a decade ago. Their hard work has earned them several accolades: “three-time semi-finalist for the James

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Beard Awards” and “winner of Food Network’s Chopped” to name a few. These days, they’re looking forward to opening another location on the East Warren Avenue corridor.

9:00 pm – Soak up Detroit’s night life Looking for a place to have deep and meaningful conversations and dance to an impeccable vinyl DJ? Look no further than Spot Lite. Find immaculate vinyls, great drinks, and plenty of spaces to explore and experience music the old fashion way at this warehouse-turned-gallery.

When was the last time da club had a mission statement? Your new favorite spot commits itself, “ To foster a home of collaboration and creativity in Detroit for the enjoyment of all people.”

SATURDAY 10:00 am – Take a self-guided driving tour Wake up and rehydrate. Hop in the car and head East – bonus points every time you see a Detroit bus. It’s hard to miss the differences between new houses for sale and existing housing stock, including homes that stand alone on their blocks.

The Great Recession of 2008 led to widespread foreclosures and Detroit ultimately filed for bankruptcy in 2013, which led to famously cheap land (often with significant back taxes) becoming available for purchase. You’ll learn that it was not a free-for-all, though: while longtime Detroit residents were favored to purchase vacant lots and homes in need of repair from the land bank, there are restrictions on how long a property can be owned before renovations need to be completed.

This can create roadblocks for residents who can’t access personal loans or mortgages to cover rehab costs.

Fig. 01

Belle Isle Beach Waterfront

Fig. 02

Belle Isle Alternative Outlook

11:00 am – Visit the East Warren Farmer’s Market East Warren is one of the 10 neighborhoods supported by the Strategic Neighborhood Fund (SNF), and it’s obvious how the area is changing for the better. Once you’ve grabbed some homebrewed tea and freshly baked bundt cakes, you can speak to business owners about their visions for their neighborhood and the corridor. Be sure to stop by the Alger Theatre on your way back to your car.

1:00 pm – Bike through Belle Isle Termed Detroit’s “Central Park,” Belle Isle hosts almost 1,000 acres of trails, wetland preserves,

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recreation facilities, and beaches. You can gaze across the Detroit River at the Canadian shores.

Explore the trails leading you through different corners of the island, and keep your eye out for the historic Livingston Lighthouse.

4:00 pm – Go to a party at Foxglove Once you arrive at a non-descript-looking house, walk along the side alley past and enter a backyard paradise. Vintage furniture makes the beautifully restored garage feel cozy and intimate. Pass through to the rear lots and take in the thriving planting beds with seasonal veggies and flowers.

Take a seat in a hammock under string lights and listen to an “open-table” vinyl DJ set where up-andcoming artists can try out new material. The magic of the space that co-founder Erica has curated is so evident that you won’t want to leave.

Detroit has created a unique policy to account for the vast number of vacant lots across the city and encourage community maintenance of those lots: the side lot program. The program allows residents who own their house to purchase abutting lots for $100. These lots can be used for urban agriculture or gardening projects, whether for-profit or community driven. Foxglove creates an innovative mashup of both, selling the flowers and produce from the farm, while running the nonprofit music and concert venue during the warmer months.

8:00 pm – Pizza and a milkshake at Grandma Bob’s You can’t come to Detroit without getting some real Detroit-style pizza!

SUNDAY 9:00 am - See the city via bike Head out on bikes to Joe Louis Greenway to take advantage of part of an in-the-works hike and bike trail that will create a complete loop around the city in the coming years.

The section of the trail in Corktown leads to the newly renovated Michigan Central Station, the iconic former passenger rail terminal. While there is currently no Amtrak service at the station, its rescue from deterioration and repurposing as offices, retail, restaurant, and hospitality spaces has been lauded as a symbol of Detroit’s ongoing comeback.

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10:00 am – Brunch at Brooklyn Street Local The owners of Brooklyn Street Local moved to Detroit in 2012 and immediately set up shop at this location. Quickly becoming an integral part of their neighborhood, the breakfast and brunch establishment has always highlighted their work with local suppliers and support of Midwest farmers. Enjoy a delicious, diner-style menu with plenty of vegan and gluten-free options and, if you’re brave, try a seasonal poutine - a tribute to the owners’ Canadian roots.

On your way out, you may have a tough time crossing the street. The five-way intersection just outside the door without a single crosswalk or streetlight is not unique in Detroit. Cars zooming down Michigan Avenue will have you looking both ways and grabbing the hands of your friends as you brace yourselves to make a run for it.

Pedestrians definitely don’t have it easy, but there are gorgeous discoveries to be made from the sidewalks.

12:00 pm – Consider missing your flight home What’s so special about this city? It’s difficult to explain such a deep sense of belonging to a place you’ve only visited once. Maybe it is the absence of excess and the vacuum of disinvestment that has cleared enough breathing room for what is essential. Is an underdog still an underdog if it does not doubt itself ? For those of us who look around and see the great amount of work that needs doing, Detroit says, “if you’re inclined to roll up your sleeves, here is a place to hang your hat.”

Detroit denounces “planning” the change you wish to see in the world, and challenges you to be it.

Fig. 03

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Belle Isle Lighthouse

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Allie Hayes (she/they) is a second-year MCP student concentrating in sustainable transportation and infrastructure systems. After working for years as an engineer, they came back to school to be inspired by the ways that planning aims to make meaningful positive change in people’s day-today lives. When not at school you can find Allie biking on the SRT, cooking up delicious vegetarian food, giggling with friends, or trying to envision a more equitable world.

Sarah Curry (she/her) is a second-year MCP student who has most loved studying housing and public policy through the housing, community, and economic development concentration. Sarah moved to Philadelphia in 2020 for work as an architectural designer and has called it “home” ever since.

Outside of school, she feels most fulfilled volunteering in her community, working on textile crafts, reading, baking, and eating.

Fig. 04

Spot Lite Detroit

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ROLLING EASEMENTS

Balancing Public & Private Interests in Shoreline Management Isabel Mulay As rising sea levels and intensifying coastal storms reshape shorelines, balancing public access to beaches and private property rights has become a legal issue. Rolling easements offer a potential solution, particularly in Texas, where the Texas Open Beaches Act (TOBA) has prioritized public access to the Gulf Coast since 1959. Rooted in the public trust doctrine, TOBA protects public use of both state and private beaches, allowing access to shift inland as coastlines retreat.

However, the legal framework surrounding these ‘rolling’ easements has been subject to significant evolution and debate. This analysis evaluates the legal framework, challenges, and implications of rolling easements in Texas, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in the face of an inevitable environmental reality.

Fig. 01

The public trust doctrine is an ancient legal principle that designates certain natural resources, such as navigable waters, as public property held in trust by the government for the benefit of the public. 01 It extends to the ocean as well, granting the public ownership of land below the mean high tide line and ensuring access to it.02 In Texas, the public trust doctrine has shaped the legal and cultural understanding of the state’s beaches since before statehood. Historically, Texans assumed that both wet and dry Gulf beaches were publicly owned, with public use of beaches for transportation and recreation dating since “time immemorial.”03 The wet beach is defined as the area between the mean high tide (MHT) and mean low tide (MLT) lines, which is submerged by tidal waters for part of each day. The dry beach lies between the MHT line and the natural line of vegetation (LOV). While public belief has long favored state ownership of these areas, the Texas Supreme Court clarified in the 1958 case Luttes v.

State that the boundary between private and public land is the MHT line.04 Therefore, the state does not automatically hold title to all dry beaches.

Texas Beach Illustration

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Following this ruling, the Texas Legislature passed the Texas Open Beaches Act (TOBA) in 1959 to codify the public’s use of wet beaches and access to privately owned dry beaches.05 TOBA defines public beaches as the area between the MLT line and the LOV where the public has acquired the customary right of use by prescription, dedication, presumption, or since time immemorial.06 The Act gives the public the right of ingress and egress to and from these beaches.

Importantly, TOBA does not create new easements but instead provides the state with a mechanism to enforce public rights where easements already exist.

Easements thus play a crucial role in determining public access to Texas beaches. Two primary legal doctrines supporting easements on Gulf beaches, both recognized under TOBA, are prescription and dedication. An easement by prescription is established through long-term, continuous public use without the landowner’s permission, whereas dedication occurs when land is explicitly set aside for public use.07 Over the years, Texas courts have consistently upheld that the public has acquired easements through these doctrines, reinforcing the longstanding tradition of public access codified under TOBA. Since TOBA’s inception, Texas courts have interpreted the Act liberally, allowing for the creation of rolling easements along the coast.

Although never explicitly mentioned in the Act, these rolling easements ensure that public access to beaches migrates as natural coastal processes, such as erosion or storms, shift the LOV and MHT line.08 This dynamic policy, first introduced in 1964, reflects the view that public access rights move with the shoreline, rather than being fixed to static property boundaries. Under this theory, once a public easement is established through public use between the tide and vegetation lines, it automatically follows the inland migration of the vegetation line, even onto private land that may not have been previously subject to public use.

This ensures that public access is preserved as the coastline changes.

TOBA allows private landowners to develop beachfront property as long as it does not interfere with public access.09 Structures that encroach onto the public beach due to shoreline migration may be subject to removal under the authority of the General Land Office (GLO).10 TOBA mandates a removal disclosure in property deeds for sales after 1986 and offers up to $50,000 to relocate homes encroaching on the public beach.11 This ensures that the public’s right to access beaches is upheld, even as sea levels rise and the shoreline migrates.

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The concept of rolling easements is supported by longstanding principles governing the dynamic nature of shorelines, known as the laws of erosion.

Under these doctrines, property boundaries gradually migrate with the shoreline when sediment builds up, erodes, or water recedes, uncovering land.12 These principles have been recognized for centuries and remain central to property law in the U.S.13 Rolling easements move in tandem with these gradual shifts that property boundaries dictated by water bodies undergo.

In contrast, the doctrine of avulsion addresses sudden, dramatic changes to the shoreline caused by events like hurricanes. Unlike gradual processes, avulsion typically leaves property boundaries intact at their original location, even when the shoreline retreats inland.14 However, this can result in private property boundaries extending beyond the MHT, encroaching upon public land that is held by the state. To protect this public trust land, the commonly accepted approach after avulsive events is to apply the laws of erosion to property boundaries. Rolling easements adopt the same principle.

TOBA faces significant legal challenges under the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment, which prohibits the government from taking private property for public use without providing just compensation. Homeowners required to remove their houses after the LOV migrates inland often argue that such actions constitute a regulatory taking, as legislative restrictions significantly diminish their property’s value or utility. Under the 1992 Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council U.S. Supreme Court decision, regulations that eliminate all economic value of the land require compensation, unless the regulation aligns with preexisting limitations under common law.15 TOBA’s provisions, including rolling easements, have largely avoided invalidation by grounding their authority in Texas’s common law and the state’s historic recognition of public beach access.16 By establishing public easements along the Gulf Coast through longstanding principles rather than statutory provisions, Texas has effectively insulated these measures from Takings Clause challenges.

Despite these legal defenses, many property owners still initiate litigation following hurricanes.

In one such case, Brannan v. State (2007), Texas courts ruled that rolling easements were a “background principle” of Texas property law and did not constitute a taking under the Texas or U.S. Constitutions. While TOBA’s framework has been validated for decades, a recent case has reinterpreted key provisions about rolling easements, limiting their application and reshaping

Fig. 02

Impact of Erosive and Avulsive Events on Property Boundaries

the state’s approach to balancing private ownership with public access.

In 2005, Carol Severance bought three beachfront properties on Galveston Island. At the time of purchase, two of the homes were entirely seaward of the LOV, and one was partially seaward – the result of previous hurricanes.17

This positioning exposed her properties to the public beach access easement under TOBA. The GLO warned Severance that her properties were encroachments on the public beach and subject to removal under TOBA. Severance filed a federal lawsuit in 2006, Severance v. Patterson, claiming that the enforcement of a rolling easement – without proving its existence – on her properties was unconstitutional under the Fourth and Fifth

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Amendments. Severance’s central claim contested the rolling easement doctrine, asserting that the easement could not lawfully “jump” onto previously unencumbered private property as the LOV abruptly shifted.

The Southern Texas District Court dismissed Severance’s claims in 2007, determining they

Fig. 03

Galveston Island Homes Encroaching Upon Beach After Hurricane Rita (2005).

Source: National Weather Service

were premature and lacked legal basis since no action had been taken yet under TOBA. Severance appealed to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, and in 2009 the Court partially upheld the dismissal, finding that her Fourth Amendment claim – unreasonable seizure – was appropriate for legal action. Rather than make a decision, the Court certified key questions regarding the scope of rolling easements for the Texas Supreme Court. These questions included whether rolling easements based on the migration of the LOV could be imposed on private land without proof of public use and if the landowner was entitled to receive compensation in such an instance.18 The Texas Supreme Court issued a landmark decision in 2010 rejecting the rolling easement doctrine as it applied to Severance’s properties.

The Court held that while public easements on Texas beaches could migrate with imperceptible changes to the coastline, they could not extend onto private property when dramatic changes,

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such as those caused by a hurricane, occurred without proof of an existing public right. The Court emphasized that imposing an easement on previously private land required proof of prescription, dedication, or custom, which was absent in the Severance case. Given that the state had not reserved public rights when it sold the dry beach land of Galveston Island, it could not assert a public easement based on continuous use.19 The Court ruled that the state could only acquire property rights through eminent domain with just compensation, state police power, or a legal easement – none of which applied.20 The decision in Severance reaffirmed that the public’s access to the wet beach, between the MLT and MHT lines, remains unaffected by any changes to the shoreline, as the wet beach is protected under the public trust doctrine.21 The Court also agreed with prior decisions that the boundary between public (wet beach) and private (dry beach) land is defined by the MHT line, which naturally migrates over time due to gradual processes and can jump during an avulsive event.

The Texas Supreme Court reheard the case in 2012 and issued an updated decision that expanded upon compensation, stating that it would be unfair to impose restrictions on private property without compensation after an avulsive event. The Court clarified, however, that when a property owner’s land becomes submerged by water, as the MHT line moves inland, compensation is not required.

Landowners are presumed to understand that their property may eventually revert to state ownership if it becomes wet beach.

In response to the Severance decision, the Texas Legislature amended TOBA in 2013, adding provisions to address the challenges posed by the ruling. The amendment granted the Commissioner of the GLO authority to suspend the determination of the LOV for up to three years following its obliteration by a “meteorological event.” During the suspension period, the public beach boundary is temporarily extended to a line 200 feet inland from

the MLT line, giving time for the LOV to stabilize and reach a new equilibrium.22 After this period, the Commissioner can make a determination of where the new LOV is, preserving more of the public beach than would be possible if the LOV were tied to its pre-avulsive event location.

There are a few merits to the Severance ruling.

It protects public beach easements in the context of gradual changes, ensuring they remain intact as sea levels rise. Additionally, the Court’s approach to avulsive events has valid applications. When the LOV is obliterated and extreme weather events create huge swaths of new beach, existing public easements are drastically expanded. This may expose new structures to the dry beach, regardless of their position landward of the original LOV. In such cases, the pre-Severance determination of public beach easement based on the new LOV is not the best interpretation of where publicly accessible land should be located. Severance allows these homeowners to retain their private property rights. Additionally, the amendment to TOBA creates room for more case-specific decisions about where the public beach boundary should be. This flexibility strikes a better balance between the rights of property owners and the public interest.

A key issue with the Severance ruling, however, is that it eliminates public access when the dry beach is eradicated. An easement was already established on West Beach, seaward of Severance’s property, as early as 1975. For decades, the public regularly used the dry beach next to the ocean, cementing their right to access through uninterrupted and customary use. However, when Hurricane Rita struck in 2005 and left Severance’s property directly adjacent to the wet beach, the public’s easement effectively vanished with the physical dry land. Given that Severance’s property was not on the beach previously, a public easement had never been created by prescription on her land specifically. Under the Severance ruling, the state would have to reestablish the easement by purchasing the land or seeking approval from Severance. The likely outcome: a public easement that existed for centuries would no longer remain.

Severance also fundamentally misinterprets the nature and purpose of public easements.

Easements established by custom are inherently contextual, tied not to a fixed geographic location but to the purpose they serve – ensuring public access to the ocean. The Court’s interpretation, however, treats easements as place-specific, failing to recognize this nuance. Public use over time inherently supports the existence of rolling

easements, as they naturally migrate with coastline changes. People do not picnic in the water because that is the exact spot they picnicked ten years ago; they picnic on the beach. By ignoring this reality, the Court undermines the purpose of easements established by custom, which should evolve alongside the shifting shoreline to maintain their function.

This portion of the decision begins to erode the common law principles that have upheld public beachfront easements for centuries and insulated them from the Fifth Amendment Takings Clause.

The Court recognizes that property owners are aware that their land may eventually be submerged by the ocean and become public trust land. Even after an avulsive event that dramatically changes the MHT line, owners should still expect to forfeit their land without compensation. Yet, the same logic is not applied to dry beach easements. If property owners understand that their land may one day be lost to the wet beach regardless of gradual or avulsive change, they should equally understand that their land may encroach upon the dry beach and become accessible to the public. The longstanding tradition of easements established by prescription, dedication, and custom should be upheld the same way the wet beach under the public trust doctrine is upheld.

The Severance ruling also fails to account for the accelerating impacts of climate change, particularly in vulnerable regions like Galveston.

More frequent storms, combined with rapid sea level rise, will increasingly destroy beachfront public easements; Severance makes reestablishing these easements incredibly difficult. Since 1950, sea levels around Galveston have risen by 18 inches, a rate that continues to accelerate, now increasing by approximately one inch per year.23 The Gulf of Mexico has experienced sea level rise at twice the global average since 2010, making it difficult to categorize such changes as “gradual” or “imperceptible.” 24 This oversight is particularly glaring given that terms like “climate change” and “sea level rise” are absent from the Court’s decision.

The region also faces a disproportionate risk of extreme weather events, with high-tide floods striking Galveston 141 times since 2015 and hurricanes returning on average every nine years.25 Between 1998 and 2019, all 14 of the original homes involved in the Brannan v. State case were destroyed by storms, illustrating how extreme weather can render properties uninhabitable before legal or administrative solutions can be implemented. The Severance Court’s reasoning

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might have made sense in a world where major, devastating storms occurred infrequently, but trends of these events call for a reevaluation of how rolling easements are applied. As climate impacts worsen, it is inevitable that landowners will revisit these issues in court, calling into question whether the courts will continue to uphold gradual rolling easements.

The underlying issue is not about property rights or the scope of rolling easements – it lies in the persistent development of areas that are increasingly uninhabitable due to climate change.

Coastal cities like Galveston must shift their focus from reactive measures to proactive strategies that address growing threats. Rolling easements are not a sufficient solution on their own; they operate as a stopgap, managing the tensions between public rights and private property when gradual changes to the coastline occur. Instead, there needs to be a paradigm shift toward preventing these tensions from arising in the first place. Proactive measures could include limiting future development through stricter zoning regulations, creating incentive programs to help coastal property owners relocate, and discontinuing subsidies for wind and flood insurance in vulnerable areas. These steps would not only reduce the financial and human toll of

Fig. 04

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extreme weather events but address the root causes of public/private tensions, rather than continuing to react to the consequences.

The Severance Court’s primary concern appears to be protecting private property rights at the expense of public access to beaches. Although permitting rolling easements for gradual changes was a necessary and appropriate decision, the Court’s rejection of longstanding use as a basis for rolling easements undermines the historical precedent and the realities of public reliance on these spaces. By applying an overly broad framework to avulsive events, the Court sets a dangerous precedent. Treating all such events as equivalent ignores the unique circumstances that often accompany catastrophic storms. The Severance decision could, in time, lead to the complete elimination of public beaches. The precedent established here risks leaving private property in place of previously public beaches, with no feasible means to reestablish easements.

Rolling easements are not a comprehensive strategy to mediate tension between private owners and the public; the state of Texas must look for alternative ways to ensure public beach access is protected for years to come.

Galveston Homes Destroyed After Tropical Storm Frances (1998). Source: Houston Chronicle.

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ENDNOTES

12

01

13

“Common Law Framework for a Rolling Easement,” 2016.

14

Titus, “Rolling Easements,” 2011.

15

Lucas v. S.C. Coastal Council, 505 U.S. 1003, 112 S. Ct. 2886, 120 L. Ed. 2d 798, U.S. LEXIS 4537, 60 U.S.L.W. 4842, 92 Daily Journal DAR 9030, 22 ELR 21104, 34 ERC (BNA) 1897, 6 Fla. L. Weekly Fed. S 715 (Supreme Court of the United States June 29, 1992, Decided).

“Common Law Framework for a Rolling Easement,” Coastal Resilience, March 4, 2016.

02

Carolyn Ginno, “DO Mess With Texas. . .? Why Rolling Easements May Provide a Solution to the Loss of Public Beaches Due to Climate Change-Induced Landward Coastal Migration,” San Diego Journal of Climate & Energy Law 8, no. 225 (2017).

03

“Rolling Easements & the Texas Open Beaches Act,” Coastal Resilience, March 4, 2016.

Victor Metsch, “Accretion/Avulsion: The Legal Littoral Divide,” SGR Law, May 19, 2017.

16

Ginno, “DO Mess With Texas. . .?,” 2017.

17

Severance v. Patterson, 485 F. Supp. 2d 793, U.S. Dist.

LEXIS 32291 (United States District Court for the Southern District of Texas, Houston Division, May 2, 2007, Filed).

18

Severance v. Patterson, 566 F.3d 490, U.S. App. LEXIS 8410 (United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, April 23, 2009, Filed).

Ginno, “DO Mess With Texas. . .?,” 2017.

04

Titus, “Rolling Easements,” 2011.

05

Terra Bowling, “An Overview of Coastal Access Rights in Texas,” National Sea Grant Law Center, July 2015.

06

Texas Natural Resources Code: Title 2: Subtitle E; Chapter 61.

07

Ibid.

19

08

“New Texas Open Beaches Act Amendment Explained,” Surfrider Foundation, April 14, 2023.

20

“Rolling Easements & the Texas Open Beaches Act,” 2016.

21

Bowling, “An Overview of Coastal Access...,” 2015.

09

John S Jacob and Stephanie Showalter, “ The Resilient Coast: Policy Frameworks for Adapting the Wetlands to Climate Change and Growth in Coastal Areas of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico,” National Sea Grant Law Center, August 2007, 21.

10

Titus, “Rolling Easements,” 2011.

11

“Rolling Easements & the Texas Open Beaches Act,” 2016.

22

Ibid.

23

“ Texas’ Sea Level Is Rising,” Sea Level Rise, accessed December 6, 2024.

24

“ Texas’ Sea Level Is Rising.”

25

“Living with Sea Level Rise on the Upper Texas Coast,” Harte Research Institute, accessed December 6, 2024.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Isabel Mulay (she/her) is a second-year MCP student concentrating in Land Use and Environmental Planning. Her passion lies in planning climate resilient, equitable, and sustainable communities. Outside Weitzman, you can find Isabel walking around the city, reading random Wikipedia pages, hanging out with friends, and listening to Taylor Swift.

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CLIMATE RESILIENCY STUDIO: CENTRAL VERMONT INTRODUCTION

STUDIO VISIT

The studio’s primary focus was on advancing climate resilience in Central Vermont, specifically identifying flood mitigation strategies for Montpelier, Barre, and Plainfield. Though each city presents unique challenges and operates at different scales, they are united by a shared watershed, the Winooski, and the existential threat posed by increasingly severe flooding events.

An October trip to Central Vermont allowed the team to survey sites of interest and learn firsthand from stakeholders on the ground. Meetings and walking tours with municipal staff, Vermont state departments, and community members provided the team with essential information. The trip culminated with an existing conditions analysis presentation and facilitated conversation with stakeholders at the State Capitol.

Organized by studio instructors, Scott Page and Jamie Granger, as well as MCP graduate Michael Gaughan from the Vermont Bond Bank, the studio aimed to develop adaptive solutions that stimulate new ideas around resilience, enhance the vision for long-term sustainability, and create models for other flood-prone Vermont towns facing similar issues.

Fig. 01

Regional Context Map

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Fig. 02

Analysis Precipitation Chart

VERMONT ’S CHANGING CLIMATE

CENTRAL VERMONT REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Vermonters have endured a series of significant flooding events over recent years, beginning with Hurricane Irene in 2011 and culminating in the catastrophic floods of July 2023 and 2024.

These repeated disasters have brought topics of resilience, strategic retreat, and longterm adaptation to the forefront of political and community discussions across the state. The increasing frequency and intensity of these floods have underscored the urgent need for proactive planning and innovative solutions.

A recurring theme from our initial research and discussions with Vermont stakeholders has been the urgent need for better coordination at the watershed level. The rivers and branches that flow through Montpelier, Barre, and Plainfield do not adhere to municipal boundaries. Upstream interventions have direct and often severe consequences for downstream communities.

Achieving meaningful progress in Central Vermont’s overall resilience requires collaborative, watershed-wide strategies that address the shared risks and opportunities faced by all communities within the region.

Rising annual temperatures are driving increases in average annual precipitation, intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events across Vermont. Warmer temperatures result in more extreme weather patterns, including heavier summer rainfall.

Additionally, Vermont is facing a severe housing crisis characterized by historically low vacancy rates and an aging housing stock. The state’s vacancy rates are at unhealthy levels, making it increasingly difficult for individuals and families to find affordable, available housing. This combination of limited availability, deteriorating conditions, and loss of stock due to disasters places immense pressure on communities.

Central Vermont’s challenges related to development, housing, infrastructure, and capacity are not unique; they are shared by many municipalities across the state. However, each town possesses its own distinct characteristics and complexities that require tailored solutions to effectively address their specific vulnerabilities and opportunities. The following town plans take a deeper dive into these intricacies, exploring customized interventions aimed at fostering more resilient communities.

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BARRE FLOOD RESILIENCE PLAN The City of Barre faces an urgent need to address its vulnerability to flooding. According to the University of Vermont’s inundation model, a staggering percentage of Barre’s most valuable assets, properties, and structures are at risk. 25% of the assessed property value in Barre falls within the 2-year floodplain.

The Barre Flood Resilience Plan provides a comprehensive strategy to mitigate these risks while revitalizing the city through adaptive infrastructure, housing diversity, and green open spaces. Leveraging FEMA buyouts, underutilized land, and collaborative partnerships, the plan outlines a pathway to ensure the city’s long-term sustainability and resilience.

Fig. 03

Analysis Housing Chart

Fig. 04

Analysis Watershed Map

The plan is guided by three principles: protecting Barre’s historic foundation, adapting to new environmental challenges, and fostering growth to support a vibrant future. Priority projects include flood-resilient infrastructure upgrades, such as elevating bridges and introducing green stormwater solutions.

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Fig. 05

Barre Parcel Value Map

Fig. 06

Barre Infrastructure

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SOLUTIONS Addressing Barre’s overall resiliency requires addressing its housing crisis through promoting mixed-use housing and infill development. Barre’s downtown hosts massive potential due to its excess impervious surface and room for denser housing. The plan proposes a variety of housing interventions including a mixed use development at the center of Main Street.

In addition, the Plan proposes a radical transformation of flood-prone areas into multifunctional public spaces. Interventions at former parking lots (Enterprise Park) and FEMA buyout areas (North End Restoration) outline how the city can combine flood mitigation

Fig. 07

Barre Investment Collage

Fig. 08

Barre Masterplan

with community enrichment and economic development. The plan also identifies 26 acres of under-utilized rail land as an opportunity for floodplain restoration and recreation development.

By addressing both immediate challenges and long-term opportunities, the plan aims to transform Barre into a resilient and connected city. Through innovative policies, strategic investments, and community collaboration, Barre can not only reduce the impact of flooding but also enhance its livability, attract new residents and businesses, and safeguard its historic identity for future generations.

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To preserve historic buildings, we used the Rialto Building as an example, illustrating how flood gates, waterproof walls, and elevated building foundations can be implemented.

For context, the Rialto Building, located in downtown Montpelier, is uniquely situated on a bridge, making it particularly vulnerable to flooding from the Winooski River.

Finally, our focus on Sabin’s Pasture and the Country Club Road Site highlights Montpelier’s potential to add more housing units while diversifying housing types to include affordable and senior housing. This housing plan not only Fig. 09

Montpelier Collage

addresses the needs of various residents but also integrates social and recreational amenities that align with Vermont’s neighborhood character.

Together, these strategies all aim to enhance Montpelier’s resilience to climate change while fostering a vibrant and inclusive community.

Fig. 10

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Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette

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PLANNING IN PLAINFIELD Plainfield stands at a pivotal moment as it faces the challenges of climate change and urban development. The 2024 floods exposed the town’s vulnerabilities but also revealed an extraordinary opportunity to rebuild with purpose. By embracing strategic flood recovery and buyout initiatives, Plainfield can turn adversity into a foundation for resilience. Reimagining buyout properties as community assets, like the proposed Chicken It’sa Park, will not only mitigate future flood risks but also celebrate the town’s cultural heritage and strengthen community bonds.

The redevelopment of Goddard College and the Village Expansion Area represents a bold vision for resilience, inclusivity, and sustainability.

These projects address immediate recovery needs while positioning Plainfield as a leader among small towns tackling similar challenges, setting a standard for innovative, community-driven development.

Reevaluating Brook Road with a focus on essential repairs and creative land use can reduce financial strain and open opportunities for innovation, such as community agriculture and expanded riparian buffers. These actions honor Plainfield’s agricultural heritage while addressing critical flood mitigation needs.

Additionally, the proposed Cross Plainfield Trail and improved pedestrian infrastructure promise to enhance connectivity, linking key areas like the Village Expansion Area and Goddard College through safe, inviting pathways.

Equally vital is fostering meaningful community engagement. A community-driven approach ensures that Plainfield’s residents actively shape their town’s future, fostering ownership and accountability. Workshops, forums, and participatory decision-making can effectively merge technical expertise with local insights, ensuring solutions are both practical and embraced.

This is more than a recovery plan—it is a visionary blueprint for a stronger, more connected Plainfield. These initiatives will protect the town from future disasters while laying the foundation for a vibrant, sustainable future that enhances residents’ well-being and economic stability. The time to act is now. By implementing these recommendations, stakeholders can transform Plainfield into a model of resilience and innovation for generations to come.

Fig. 11

Country Club’s Housing Plan

Fig. 12

Plainfield Village Expansion

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Fig. 13

Goddard College Concept Plan (Plainfield Goddard Map)

Fig. 14

Plainfield Future Master Plan

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Studio Team

• Miranda Ayres • Varun Bhakhri • Mark Dellostritto • Jiayue Ma

• Christina Mitchell • Julia Nema • Zachary Somberg • Yujin Song

• Stewart Tillyer • Lu Yii Wong • Emily Zhou Spring 2025

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PRE-EVALUATION OF A HIGH-PROFILE SUBWAY PROJECT IN PHILADELPHIA USING SIMPLE METHODS Ziyi Guo + Hongyu (Viva) Wan ABSTRACT The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway is a proposed subway that connects neighborhoods in far northeast Philadelphia to the city’s existing subway network. After several unsuccessful attempts to build the subway since the 1910s, the project has received renewed attention in recent years.

Advocates have touted the project’s potential social, economic, and environmental benefits to local residents and the Philadelphia region. The promoted benefits were largely based on ridership and travel time projections in a 2003 study, which offers limited explanation of the methodology and assumptions behind the projections. Subways are expensive to build and maintain. As SEPTA, the transit agency in the Philadelphia region, continues to face revenue shortfalls and reduced ridership, it is critical to ensure its large capital projects are financially sustainable in the long term. This paper uses back-of-the-envelope calculations and simple comparative analysis to examine the timesaving, ridership, and station area development potentials promoted by advocates of the Boulevard Subway.

The analysis found that ridership will likely be less rosy than initially projected. While the subway could shorten travel time to downtown, the timesaving benefits relative to driving will be diminished once considering access/egress time and waiting time at stations. Station development has been uneven around Philadelphia’s existing subway stations, suggesting that the introduction of a new subway may not guarantee transitoriented development. The study highlights the need to use transparent assumptions, rigorous methods, and quantifiable outcomes when advocating for large transit projects to ensure the credibility of the projects’ merit and feasibility.

Keywords: Philadelphia, Ridership Projection, Roosevelt Boulevard Subway, Station Area Development, Travel Timesaving

INTRODUCTION Several medium and large cities in the United States have promoted, proposed, and invested in rail transit with the hope that the service would improve mobility and generate economic development along the rail corridor. Rail transit projects are funded primarily by two federal programs, New Starts and Small Starts. Figure 1 shows the proposed funding allocation for the two programs between fiscal years 2007 and 2024.01 The increasing number of rail transit projects has inspired a growing volume of research that mainly focuses on post evaluation of the projects’ mobility and economic development benefits. Relatively few academic studies have examined the pre-project evaluations for rail transit projects before they advance to formal proposal and funding application phases. Rail transit projects, especially heavy rail projects such as subway, typically have large sunk costs, irreversible impact on the built environment, and high maintenance and operating costs.

Transit funding is a scarce resource that needs to be allocated and spent effectively. As many transit agencies are still recovering from revenue shortfalls during the COVID pandemic while facing declining ridership, it is critical to ensure rail transit projects are financially sustainable in the long run so that they do not become boondoggles for transit agencies post-construction.

The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway (RBS) is a high-profile heavy rail transit project in Philadelphia. Despite still being in the early conceptualization stage without formal proposals or funding commitment from the region’s transit authority, RBS has garnered attention from local residents, politicians, and transit advocates. The popular media in the Philadelphia region have followed the project’s progress in a series of news articles, editorials, and opinion pieces. At the time this paper was written, a YouTube video of the project by a popular transit enthusiast has

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massed 350,000 views since its posting in January, 2023.02 The current narrative around the RBS has been largely in favor of the project. Advocates have touted the project’s potential mobility, equity, and economic benefits to local residents and its positive spillover effects on the vitality of region.03-05 The RBS was advertised to improve access to educational and job opportunities for residents along the Roosevelt Boulevard corridor, ease congestion and improve safety on the Boulevard by diverting over 80,000 car trips to the subway daily, and provide opportunities for new parks and public space along the Boulevard.06-08 The advertised benefits and positive effects, however, have largely been speculative. The cash-strapped Southeastern Pennsylvania Transit Authority (SEPTA), Philadelphia region’s transit provider, already faces maintenance backlog and financial difficulties maintaining existing services.09 A large capital project like the RBS, if underperformed, will no doubt put a further strain on SEPTA’s budget and undermine the agency’s ability to maintain, let alone improve, existing services. Furthermore, rail transit projects have often experienced cost overruns and unexpected delays.10-12 Meanwhile, their social and economic benefits have been inconclusive.13 As such, there is an urgent need to examine the RBS’s potential benefits while it is in the conceptualization phase.

Fig. 01

Proposed funding allocation to New Starts and Small Starts Program, 2007-2024

This paper uses back-of-the-envelope calculation and simple comparative analysis to examine three factors that are often promoted by advocates of the RBS as justification for the project—timesaving, ridership, and station area development. The paper makes two main contributions. by providing a preliminary but systematic evaluation of the RBS’s potential mobility and economic development benefits, it offers insights that could help inform SEPTA’s investment decisions as the RBS project gains momentum. Second, it introduces a simple, mixed methods approach for the preliminary evaluation of large rail projects. Other cities that aim to study the feasibility of rail transit projects during early project conceptualization might find the methodological framework proposed in this paper relevant.

In the remainder of the paper, the first section explains the current socioeconomic and traffic conditions along the Roosevelt Boulevard Subway corridor. Due to the lack of academic studies on the RBS project, section two primarily draws on secondary sources to discuss the proposed RBS, its development over time, and the renewed interest in recent years. Section three uses mixed methods to examine the promoted benefits of the

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Fig. 02

Location and Road Configuration of Roosevelt Boulevard

project. The last section discusses the implications of the findings on project pre-evaluation and transit advocacy.

CURRENT CONDITIONS OF ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD This section provides an overview of Roosevelt Boulevard’s geographic location and configuration.

It then explains the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the neighborhoods along Roosevelt Boulevard using the Census tract as the unit of analysis. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics came from 2018 and 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates. 14 The section also briefly discusses residents’ commute patterns and workplace locations using Census Longitudinal EmployerHousehold Dynamics data.15 LOCATION OVERVIEW AND CONFIGURATION Roosevelt Boulevard, often referred to as the Boulevard, is a major thoroughfare that connects North and Northeast Philadelphia to Center City, as shown in Figure 2. It connects to Roosevelt Expressway near Broad Street to the south, extends north to Lincoln Highway in Bucks County, and runs parallel to Interstate 95. Most of the 14mile Boulevard has twelve traffic lanes, with six in each direction. In each direction, the three inner lanes function as express lanes, while the three outer lanes serve local traffic. These express and local lanes are separated by a raised median, with similar posted speed limits of 40 to 45 mph and lane widths of 11 to 12 feet as measured by the authors using aerial images.16 A CORRIDOR OF TWO HALVES

Fig. 02

Location and Road Configuration of Roosevelt Boulevard

While on average, the socio-demographics of the Roosevelt Boulevard largely reflect those of the City of Philadelphia, a closer examination reveals a corridor with two distinct halves. As of 2023, roughly 500,000, or nearly one-third of Philadelphia’s population, live within one mile from the Boulevard. The corridor is densely populated with almost 23 residents per acre, compared to 20 citywide. As shown in Figure 3, the northern half of the corridor is markedly older, whiter, and less dense than the southern half. Economically, households in the northern part have higher median property values, higher median household incomes, and lower poverty rates not only compared to the southern part of the corridor but also to the city as a whole.

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bus operating along the Boulevard. The enhanced service bus, called the Boulevard Direct, was introduced to the corridor as a BRT-lite service in 2017.

The service mostly runs along the same route as the Route 14 bus, but with consolidated stops, longer stop spacing, better stop facilities, and shorter overall travel time. Roughly 12% of the workers in the corridor commute to work by bus.

HISTORY AND PLANNING PROCESS OF THE RBS The proposed Roosevelt Boulevard Subway is a 12mile subway along Roosevelt Boulevard Fig. 03 Spatial Patterns of Socio-Demographic Characteristics with 12 new stations.

Along Roosevelt Boulevard The subway connects to Erie Station on the As shown in Figure 4, many residents in BSL express tracks for rapid transit to Center the study area work within the corridor, or in City, as shown in Figure 5 in the next section. The Center City or University City, the two largest project also includes a one-mile extension of the employment centers in Philadelphia. Residents MFL as an underground subway from Frankford in the corridor are highly auto dependent.

Transportation Center to Bustleton Station on Nearly 77% of households own at least one car, Roosevelt Boulevard. We direct the interested which is five percentage points higher than the reader to the Roosevelt Boulevard Corridor Study city average. More than 70% of workers drove for the detailed alignment of the RBS proposal17. alone or carpooled to work, compared to 55% in Philadelphia. The share of commuters by vehicle Before the recent interest in the RBS, the project is larger among residents who live farther from had a long history as a potential transit alternative the Boulevard. The wealthier northern part of the for the corridor. The first formal proposal for the corridor has higher vehicle ownership rates and RBS dates back to 1913.18 That plan, however, a heavier reliance on cars for commuting than was halted due to funding issues and material the southern part. Meanwhile, residents in the shortage during World War I.19 In mid-50s, the city southern part rely more on transit for commuting. revisited the plan but had to abandon it again due Overall, 17% of residents along the Boulevard to resident objections.19 In 1960, the Philadelphia commute by transit, compared to 20 percent City Planning Commission included the RBS in the citywide. city’s Comprehensive Plan.20 However, the proposal Philadelphia’s two existing subways, the Broad Street Line (BSL) and the Market-Frankford Line (MFL), terminate in the southern part of the corridor. Currently, bus services are the primary transit option for many residents along the corridor. There are three SEPTA regular buses (Routes 1, 14, and R) and one enhanced service

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was again not pursued. In 1967, the retail company Sears built an underground station near its building complex on the Boulevard in anticipation of an expansion of the BSL to the Boulevard that never materialized.16, 18, 21

To address the growing transportation needs along the Boulevard in the 2000s , the city revisited the RBS project in the 2003 Roosevelt Boulevard Corridor Study (hereafter, the 2003 study). The study was submitted by a group of consulting companies to the city and provided a more detailed and analysis-based evaluation for the project. Using efficiency, community development, and environmental impacts as the main criteria, the study selected the current RBS proposal as the preferred alternative. This marked the first attempt featuring detailed route planning, integration with other transportation networks, and specific construction details for the project. The proposal designated SEPTA as the project sponsor.

The subway was projected to cost $3 billion, or $4.6 billion in 2024 dollar value.17 The long range plan published in 2006 by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), Philadelphia region’s metropolitan planning organization, identified the proposed subway as a Major Regional Transportation Aspiration.22 In 2016, the city launched a program to improve safety and access of the Boulevard. In the following years, transit alternative study and vision plan for Roosevelt Boulevard conducted by the city prioritized strategies with lower costs and shorter implementation timeframes. Proposed transit alternatives include enhanced bus service, bus rapid transit, and light rail.16, 23 Meanwhile, the subway was excluded from the alternatives analysis.

In 2023, the Roosevelt Boulevard Subway Movement was launched to advocate for the RBS based on the proposal outlined in the 2003 study explained above. The movement has garnered attention from local and state government officials as well as local community.05, 24, 25 Currently, the subway has been incorporated into the updated alternatives analysis for the Roosevelt Boulevard improvement program.26 The city, SEPTA, and PennDOT have planned to evaluate the alternatives to select the preferred alternative.

calculation and simple, qualitative comparative analysis with station areas along the MFL to examine three of these benefits- timesaving, high ridership, and station area development potential. We chose these three benefits for the following reasons. First, analysts often calculate the monetary value of travel timesaving when estimating a transit project’s social and economic benefits. Thus, travel timesaving serves as a key factor for public transit project evaluation. Second, ridership is critical in public transit investment not only because it is a factor in the calculation of collective timesaving, but also because it is a determinant for revenue recovery. Third, a main attraction of rail transit projects for cities is their potential for stimulating station area development.

Cities have promoted transit-oriented development around rail stations to create high-density, walkable, mixed-use communities around rail transit stations to stimulate the local economy.27,28 In fact, one of Federal Transit Administration’s main criteria for evaluating funding applications for rail transit is the projects’ potential to generate economic development.29 Thus, station area development represents a crucial aspect of a rail transit project’s potential impact.

TIMESAVING Citing the 2003 study, advocates of the RBS have claimed that the project could shorten travel time from Neshaminy Mall in the far northeast of the city to City Hall, the focal point of Center City, to just 32 minutes, compared to over one hour on existing transit modes.17 This analysis sought to examine this claim and compare the travel time on the RBS to that of three other alternatives for the journey between Neshaminy Mall and City Hall. Figure 5 shows the route for each alternative examined in this analysis. For the three comparison alternatives, we used Google Maps to estimate weekday morning peak hour travel time for 8am on Monday, July 1st, 2024. Table 1 summarizes the estimated travel time for each alternative.

PROJECT EVALUATION Advocates have cited many potential social, economic, and environmental benefits that the RBS could bring based on projections from the 2003 study. In this analysis, we used back-of-the-envelope

Fig. 04

Place of work, commute mode share, and vehicle ownership of residents along Roosevelt Boulevard

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measured by the authors on the BSL. (2) The RBS travels at an average speed of 50-60 mph for the whole journey. While the express tracks on the BSL allow a travel speed of 70 mph30, due to acceleration and deceleration, the train would likely travel at a slower average speed than the speed allowed. For reference, currently the BSL traverses the 2-mile Table 01 Estimated Travel Time for the RBS and Other Alternatives distance between Olney Transit Center and Erie Station in 4 minutes on PROPOSED ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD SUBWAY the express tracks according to SEPTA’s schedule.

Based on these assumptions, the journey from As shown in Figure 5, there are two options to Neshaminy Mall to City Hall on the RBS-BLS route access City Hall using the proposed RBS. The would take approximately 32 to 35 minutes. This first option requires a transfer to the MFL. In the estimate aligns with the estimated travel time from second option, the RBS would join the BSL at Erie the 2003 study. Based on our calculation, however, Station and travel along the existing express tracks it seems likely that the 2003 study did not account on the BSL to City Hall without a transfer. While for station access and egress time or waiting time the 2003 study did not specify the route of the at the station for the train to arrive. journey, it is likely that the travel time estimation referred to the second option, which would result in a much shorter travel time than option one CURRENT BOULEVARD DIRECT BUS based on the authors’ calculation. Thus, we use the RBS to BSL route to examine the travel time claim The fastest existing transit option requires in the 2003 study. passengers to take the Boulevard Direct Bus from Neshaminy Mall to the Frankford Transportation The 2003 study claimed that the RBS could Center, where passengers transfer to the MFL to complete the trip between Neshaminy Mall City Hall. Our estimated weekday morning peak and City Hall in 32 minutes without providing hour travel time on the Boulevard Direct Bus assumptions and calculation for this estimation. using Google Maps was roughly 33 minutes. This To test this claim, we calculated the estimated estimate was mostly consistent with the advertised travel time using the following assumptions: (1) The 34-minute travel time for the Boulevard Direct31.

RBS stops at all stations on Roosevelt Boulevard, The end-to-end travel time from Neshaminy Mall and only express stations on the BSL, with an to City Hall using this alternative was estimated average dwell time of 25-30 seconds per station as at approximately one hour, including a 2-minute transfer from the Boulevard Direct to the MFL at Frankford Transportation Center.

Fig. 05

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Travel routes for the RBS and other alternatives

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DRIVING The fastest driving route from Neshaminy Mall to City Hall is I-95 to the east of the Boulevard.

The 20.6-mile drive takes an estimated 45 minutes to traverse. Drivers may also use the Boulevard and Broad Street to access City Hall. Despite comparable driving distance with the I-95 route, this option is substantially slower according to our estimates and therefore was excluded from the reported alternatives.

PROPOSED BOULEVARD DIRECT BUS In 2016, the City of Philadelphia proposed an enhanced Boulevard Direct Bus as part of its program to improve access along the Boulevard.

The proposed Boulevard Direct Bus would extend the existing Boulevard Direct Bus and feature dedicated bus lanes. Passengers take the proposed Boulevard Direct Bus from Neshaminy Mall to Hunting Park Station, where they transfer to the BSL to reach City Hall. FTA estimates BRT services to have an average travel speed between 17 and 30 mph.32 According to SEPTA, the current Boulevard Direct Bus travels at an average 19.4 mph.31 Assuming an improved average speed of 25 mph, an average dwell time of 30 seconds per stop, and a 2-minute transfer to the subway, travel time for the journey on the proposed Boulevard Direct Bus would be around 52 minutes.

COMPARISON OF TRAVEL TIME AND CAVEAT Our calculation showed that the RBS has shorter travel time compared to driving, and substantially shorter travel time than the other transit options. It should be pointed out that there are a few factors that could affect the RBS’s timesaving advantage relative to the other options. First, the analysis considers the journey from Neshaminy Mall, the proposed northern terminus of the RBS, to City

Fig. 05

Hall. For those who do not travel the full length of the RBS, such as residents in the southern part of the Boulevard who have greater reliance on transit than those in the northern part, the time savings advantage of the RBS over the other alternatives will likely be smaller. Second, the estimations for the transit options did not account for the access and egress time. According to the 2017 National Household Travel Survey, the median access and egress time to transit for residents in the Philadelphia region was approximately 15 minutes. 31 Additionally, the calculation did not consider the time spent waiting for the transit vehicle to arrive, which often depends on the service headway. As such, the analysis likely underestimated the total door-to-door travel time on the RBS and the other transit options.

RIDERSHIP Advocates for the RBS have cited the daily ridership of 124,500 boardings projected by the 2003 study for the year 2020 as evidence of the project’s potential mobility benefits.17 The study, however, did not explain the methodology or assumptions for the projection. The ridership projection is higher than any proposed subway in the Federal Transit Administration’s capital investment grants program, and on par with the pre-pandemic ridership on Philadelphia’s two existing subways.03 In 2019, the average weekday ridership on the BSL and the MFL was around 117,000 and 170,000, respectively.34 However, the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically reduced ridership, cutting it by more than half on the two subways. In 2023, the BSL and the MFL saw only slightly over 51,000 and 77,000 daily riders, respectively.35 In other words, three years after the beginning of the pandemic,

Travel routes for the RBS and other alternatives

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the Boulevard Direct seems to indicate that while the enhanced bus might have encouraged some existing bus passengers to use the service, it likely has only attracted a rather modest number of new transit passengers. While there are several crucial differences in service characteristics between the Boulevard Direct and the proposed RBS, the Boulevard Direct’s limited ability to attract new Table 02 Annual Average Daily Ridership of Route 14 and Boulevard Direct passengers albeit being a more superior service than the existing transit option the two existing subways had only recovered may nonetheless serve as a cautionary tale to the to about 45% of their 2019 ridership levels. ridership projection of the RBS. Furthermore, Philadelphia has experienced one of the slowest transit ridership recovery among medium and large metro areas in the U.S.36 If the drastic ridership decline and the slow recovery of the BSL and the MFL serve as indicators of the general transit ridership trends in the near future, then it is reasonable to cast doubt over the projected ridership of almost 125,000 for the RBS. The latest ridership forecasts for the RBS, released in December 2024, estimate it would attract only slightly over 60,000 by 2040.43

TOD POTENTIALS While advocates of the RBS have touted the project’s potential to stimulate economic growth in station area, the uneven transit-oriented development around stations on the MFL reminds planners and policymakers that transportation infrastructure is but one of many stimulators to transit-oriented development and may not guarantee station area development.5,38,39

Another relevant reference for the RBS ridership discussion is the Boulevard Direct Bus. The In 2013, the City of Philadelphia designated Boulevard Direct primarily travels along the thirteen stations along the MFL as TOD Overlay Boulevard in a 10-mile stretch that overlaps the District and started implementing the overlay proposed RBS. The bus service was launched districts in 2017.40,41 The zoning code classifies lots as an upgrade to the existing Route 14 Bus, that are within 500 feet of a TOD station to be which follows the same 10-mile stretch on the within the overlay district. In this analysis, in order Boulevard. Compared to the Route 14 Bus, the Boulevard Direct provides Station Perc. Change in Perc. Change in Change in Vacancy a superior service as it serves fewer Median Household Median Property Value Rate stops (10 stops v. over 80 stops), Income operates more frequent services, and Allegheny 19.2 12.3 -6.8 has shorter travel time. As shown in Berks 60.1 50.0 -2.7 Table 2, the Boulevard Direct reached Erie-Torresdale 48.5 -3.9 -4.2 its highest average weekday daily Frankford -11.3 8.7 -7.8 ridership of 3,340 in 2019.37 Part of Transportation Center the ridership, however, likely resulted Huntingdon 60.9 34.0 -2.1 from passengers switching from the Somerset 63.3 31.4 -2.7 Route 14 Bus to the Boulevard Direct, Spring Garden 41.3 32.6 -0.8 as ridership on the Route 14 Bus Tioga 26.3 0.1 -1.2 steadily declined after the introduction 46th 43.8 34.6 1.4 of the Boulevard Direct. Together, the 52nd 19.5 45.6 -4.4 Route 14 Bus and the Boulevard Direct 56th 38.2 29.2 -5.7 carried 10,489 daily passengers in 2019, 60th 34.1 22.1 -1.6 compared to over 12,000 on the Route 63rd 27.4 11.9 0.1 14 Bus alone before the introduction of Philadelphia 31.5 16.5 -3.1 the Boulevard Direct. The ridership on Table 03

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Change in Median Household Income, Median Property Value, and Vacancy Rate in TOD Overlay Districts

to capture the broader effect of the subway on the station areas, we considered Census tracts that intersect with a quarter mile radius from the TOD stations as transit oriented. Figure 6 shows the stations on the MFL that are designated as TOD Overlay Districts.

Despite being conveniently served by the subway, station areas in these transit-oriented districts have seen vastly different development trajectories. Table 3 shows the percent change in median household income, percent change in median property value, and change in housing vacancy rate for each TOD Overlay District and

Fig. 06

Philadelphia between 2018 and 2022 using 2022 inflation-adjusted dollar value. Stations such as Berks and Spring Garden saw significantly higher increases in household income and property value than several other TOD stations and the city as a whole. Meanwhile, for stations such as Tioga, the increases in median income and property value, and the declines in vacancy rate were well below the city levels. From the simple analysis, it appears that the presence of subway, even with development-friendly zoning designations, is no guarantee of rapid station area development. This finding resonates with previous research of rail transit’s effect on station economic development.13

TOD Overlay Districts on the Market-Frankford Line subway

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IMPLICATIONS ON PRE-PROJECT EVALUATION AND TRANSIT ADVOCACY The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway is a highprofile rail transit project that has garnered not only local but national attention in recent years.

Advocates for the project have touted its potential mobility, social, and economic benefits to local residents and positive effects on the region’s vitality. In this paper, we used back-of-theenvelope calculations and simple comparative analysis to examine the merits of these advertised benefits. In this section, we structured the analysis’ implications on pre-evaluation for large transit projects and transit advocacy around the key findings.

Our analysis suggests that the RBS’s potential benefits might be less rosy than what has been promoted by the project’s advocates. The general transit ridership trends in Philadelphia postCOVID cast doubt on the RBS’s projected daily riders. While the projected travel time to major employment centers in Philadelphia appears to be shorter on the RBS than on other transit alternatives, when taking into consideration access and egress time, as well as waiting time at the station, the RBS’s timesaving advantage is reduced relative to driving, which is by far the most popular means for commuting in neighborhoods along the Roosevelt Boulevard. The timesaving advantage relative to other modes is further diminished for residents who only travel part of the Boulevard instead of traversing the full length. These findings suggest that the RBS’s ability to generate meaningful mode shift might be limited. In terms of economic benefits, experience of Philadelphia’s MFL stations with TOD zoning overlay suggests that station area development is highly dependent on local contexts and city planning policies and far from automatic. Our analysis demonstrates the use of simple methods, publicly available data, and secondary sources to examine the perceived benefits of a capital-intensive heavy rail transit project in the early conceptualization stage. Amid the general optimism about the RBS’s potential benefits, our results provide a fresh perspective that could inform further discussion of the project’s merit and feasibility.

During our research, we came to realize that the RBS’s potential benefits as promoted by the project’s advocates are largely speculative.

There is a lack of discussion of the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.

For example, the advocates often use the over 120,000 projected daily riders as justification of the project’s potential mobility and social benefits. A

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closer look reveals that the projection came from a 2003 study commissioned by the city and SEPTA without a clear explanation of the assumptions or methods behind the projection. Over the past two decades, especially after the COVID pandemic, Philadelphia has experienced changing demographics, economic conditions, travel patterns, and, thanks to the introduction of new transport modes such as ride-sharing services, travel behavior. In fact, in the few years leading up to the pandemic, SEPTA’s ridership had declined to some of the lowest levels in nearly a decade.42 These changing conditions could render the projected ridership from the early 2000s obsolete.

For reference, DVRPC updates its traffic demand projections every 5 years to reflect the constantly evolving traffic conditions. Heavy rail transit like subways has the potential to improve mobility and stimulate economic development. However, overly speculative benefits could be counterproductive and undermine the credibility of the project.

Project advocates should consider conducting cost benefit analyses using transparent assumptions, rigorous methods, and quantifiable outcomes to inform the public about the merit and feasibility of the projects.

A unique characteristic of the renewed interest in the RBS is that it has largely stemmed from citizen-led, grassroot advocacy. While it remains to be seen whether and how the project will proceed beyond the conceptualization stage, the advocacy campaign has been able to revive a project that was more or less collecting dust on the shelf. Among other strategies, advocates of the project have posted station area rendering on social media, hosted public town-hall meetings, and attended City Council hearings to bring the project to the attention of local residents, City Councilpersons, the region’s transit agency, as well as transit enthusiasts around the country.

Future research should consider using the RBS as a case study to investigate in greater depth how advocates managed to not only generate momentum for the project, but also turned it into one of the most high-profile transit projects in the U.S. Lessons could be relevant to advocates who are aspired to promote transit projects in their cities and regions.

ENDNOTES 01

Federal Transit Administration. Annual Report on Funding Recommendations. https://www.transit.dot.gov/funding/ grant-programs/capital-investments/annual-reportfunding- recommendations. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

14

U. S. Census Bureau. 2018-2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. https://factfinder.census. gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview. xhtml?pid=ACS_17_5YR_S 0801&prodType=table.

02

Philadelphia’s Ghost Subway Line That’s Rising from the Dead. 2023.

15

03

Arzu, J. Opinion: Can We Afford the Roosevelt Blvd.

Subway? Maybe Now Is the Time. WHYY, May 01, 2022.

U. S. Census Bureau. Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics. https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/. Accessed Dec. 28, 2019.

16

04

Pearson, D. What I Wish for in 2024: The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway. https://www.inquirer.com. https://www. inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/roosevelt-boulevardsubway-2024-wish- 20231229.html. Accessed Jul. 29, 2024.

City of Philadelphia. Roosevelt Boulevard Route for Change Program Final Report. 2021.

17

Parsons Brinckerhoff, STV Incorporated, Taub & Assoc., Kise, Straw & Kolodner, Milligan & Company, LLC, and Hill International. Roosevelt Boulevard Corridor Study. 2003.

05

Rizzo, E. Philadelphians Push for Roosevelt Boulevard Subway Project Revival. WHYY, Aug 27, 2022.

18

06

Arzu, J. New Station Renderings: Building a Cost-Effective Subway on Roosevelt Boulevard. Billy Penn at WHYY. http://billypenn.com/2023/06/08/roosevelt-boulevardsubway-cost-effective-station- renderings/. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

Winberg, M. The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway Could Finally Happen after a Century of False Starts, Transit Advocates Say. Billy Penn at WHYY. http://billypenn.com/2022/08/12/ roosevelt- boulevard-subway-northeast-philadelphiapublic-transit-infrastructure-funding/. Accessed Jul. 29, 2024.

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07

Arzu, J. Build the Roosevelt Boulevard Subway. The Philadelphia Citizen. https://thephiladelphiacitizen. org/guest-commentary-roosevelt-boulevard-subway/.

Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

Smith, S. The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway Is Dead …

Unless It Isn’t. Philadelphia Magazine. https://www. phillymag.com/news/2015/05/10/roosevelt-boulevardsubway/. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

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08

The Editorial Board. The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway and the Need for Ambitious Public Transit Leadership. https://www.inquirer.com. https://www.inquirer.com/ opinion/editorials/roosevelt- boulevard-subway-publictransportation-septa-20230202.html. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

City of Philadelphia. Comprehensive Plan for the City of Philadelphia. May 04, 1960.

21

Altmann, N. Philadelphia’s Sears Tower. https://blog. phillyhistory.org/index.php/2014/08/philadelphias-searstower/. Accessed Jul. 29, 2024.

22

Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.

Destination 2030. Jun, 2006.

23

Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.

Alternatives Development for Roosevelt Boulevard Transit Enhancements. May, 2016.

24

Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. PUBLIC COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS RELATED TO DVRPC BOARD ACTION ITEMS. Feb 14, 2023.

25

Seal, B. Roosevelt Boulevard Subway Could Slash Congestion, Save Lives and Bring Investment to the Northeast. Grid Magazine. https://gridphilly.com/bloghome/2023/04/03/roosevelt-boulevard- subway-couldslash-congestion-save-lives-and-bring-investment-to-thenortheast/. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

26

Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. U.S. 1 (Roosevelt Boulevard) – 2040 Alternatives to Transform the Boulevard. Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. https://www.penndot.gov:443/RegionalOffices/district6/ConstructionsProjectsAndRoadwork/Philadelphia/ Pages/U.S.-1-(Roosevelt-Boulevard)-Route- for-ChangeRefinement-Study.aspx. Accessed Jul. 29, 2024.

27

Carlton, I. Histories of Transit-Oriented Development. 2007.

28

Cervero, R., author., E. Guerra, and S. Al. Beyond Mobility : Planning Cities for People and Places. Island Press, Washington, DC :, 2017.

29

Federal Transit Administration. Capital Investment Grants Program Policy Guidance. https://www.transit.dot.gov/ funding/grant-programs/capital-investments/final-capitalinvestment- grant-program-interim-policy. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

09

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority.

SEPTA Board Approves Fiscal Year 2024 Operating & Capital Budgets – Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority. https://wwww.septa.org/news/ septa-board-approves-fiscal-year-2024-operating-capitalbudgets/. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

10

Cantarelli, C., B. Flyvbjerg, E. Molin, and B. Wee. Cost Overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, Vol. 10, 2010, tpp. 5–18. https://doi. org/10.18757/ejtir.2010.10.1.2864.

11

Flyvbjerg, B., M. K. Skamris holm, and S. L. Buhl. How Common and How Large Are Cost Overruns in Transport Infrastructure Projects? Transport Reviews, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2003, pp. 71–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640309904.

12

Kuntzman, G. Trouble in Paradise: Political Gridlock, Cost Overruns and Taxpayer Fatigue Plague Hawaii Transit Project. https://usa.streetsblog.org/2023/05/22/troublein-paradise-political-gridlock- cost-overruns-and-taxpayerfatigue-plague-hawaii-transit-project. Accessed Jul. 26, 2024.

13

Hinners, S. J., A. C. Nelson, and M. Buchert. Streetcars and Economic Development: Do Streetcars Stimulate Employment Growth? Transportation Research Record, Vol. 2672, No. 8, 2018, pp. 339– 350. https://doi. org/10.1177/0361198118790096.

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30

Perez-Castells, A. Why the Broad Street Line Is so Slow between Walnut-Locust and Lombard- South. https://www.inquirer.com. https://www.inquirer.com/ transportation/broad-septa-slow- walnut-locust-lombardsouth-20240111.html. Accessed Jul. 30, 2024.

31

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority. Bus Revolution: Boulevard Direct. , 2022.

32

Federal Transit Administration. Bus Rapid Transit: Elements, Performance, Benefits. Dec 02, 2015.

33

Federal Highway Administration. National Household Travel Survey. https://nhts.ornl.gov/. Accessed Dec. 14, 2018.

34

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority. Route Performance Evaluation Report FY 2019. 2020.

35

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority.

SEPTA Route Statistics 2023. , 2023.

36

Fitzpatrick, A., and K. Beheraj. Where Public Transit Is Recovering — and Where It’s Not. Axios. https://www. axios.com/2023/12/14/public-trasnportation-transitamerica-recovery-pandemic-covid. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

37

SEPTA Data Group. Route Operating Statistics. https:// public.tableau.com/app/profile/septa.data.group/viz/ RouteOperatingStatistics/SystemPerform anceByRoute.

Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

38

Arzu, J. The Roosevelt Boulevard Subway: A Potential Game-Changer for Bucks County. Jun 23, 2023.

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Fitzgerald, T. Roosevelt Boulevard Subway Talk Has Moved from ‘Impossible’ to How to Pay for It. https://www.inquirer. com. https://www.inquirer.com/transportation/septaroosevelt-boulevard- subway-toll-financing-northeastgrowth-safety-20230831.html. Accessed Jul. 31, 2024.

40

City of Philadelphia. TOD, Transit-Oriented Development Overlay District. Zoning and Planning, Chapter 14-513, 2012.

41

Bowen-Gaddy, E. City Planning Commission Recommends Four New Transit-Oriented Development Sites in North Philly. WHYY, Feb 22, 2018.

42

Dong, X. Trade Uber for the Bus? Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 86, No. 2, 2020, pp. 222–235. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2019.1687318.

43

HNTB. 2040 Roosevelt Boulevard Route for Change Project. 2024.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS. Ziyi Guo is a 2nd-year Master of City Planning student concentrating in Smart Cities and Sustainable Transportation & Infrastructure Planning.

She is passionate about leveraging innovative transportation technologies, integrating them with advanced energy systems, and optimizing public transit networks to create sustainable urban environments. She also enjoys morning runs and mocha Frappuccino.

Viva Hongyu Wan (she/her) is a second-year MCP student concentrating in Sustainable Transportation and Infrastructure Planning. She is passionate about using mapping and infographics to communicate data insights and promote accessibility, safety, and equity in transportation. Outside of her studies, Viva enjoys hiking, dancing, yoga, and experimenting with new recipes in the kitchen.

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REDEVELOPMENTINDUCED DISPLACEMENT IN ULAANBAATAR’S GER AREAS Khulan Enkhbold Following Mongolia’s democratic revolution of 1990 and its transition from a socialist country to a market economy, Ulaanbaatar experienced rapid growth. The shift from a command economy triggered widespread privatization of stateowned assets and an influx of rural migrants to Ulaanbaatar—seeking better opportunities.

Population growth coupled with inadequate housing supply led many rural immigrants to occupy land on the outskirts of the city, creating informal neighborhoods known as “Ger areas.” Gers are traditional nomadic Mongolian tents that are self-built and portable. Despite their abundance, more than half of Ulaanbaatar’s population resides in these unplanned settlements, lacking access to urban infrastructure, such as sewage systems, reliable water supply, sanitation facilities, and public transportation.01 Nearly half of Ger residents

live below the poverty line, and the uncontrolled expansion of Ger areas has contributed to a host of environmental and social challenges.02,03 Globally, informal neighborhoods are typically defined by three characteristics: insecure land tenure, inadequate infrastructure, and substandard housing.04 Ger areas align with these criteria, as many housing lots lack access to public services and infrastructure. However, Ger areas significantly diverge in one key aspect—land tenure. Unlike many informal settlements worldwide, Ger areas have been legitimized through the Law on Allocation of Land to Citizens of Mongolia for Ownership. Officially enacted in 2003, this legislation grants each citizen ownership of up to 700m² of land for residential use, enabling and encouraging new migrants to settle on undeveloped plots. By 2007, 89% of Ger area households had owned their plots of land.05 Consequently, what may appear as informal “urban sprawl” is, in fact, legally recognized property that can serve as a vital economic resource for vulnerable households. In this sense, Ger communities constitute an interesting hybrid between legitimacy and informality. While Gers have tenure security, they are not provided with the basic services that make the shelters adequately habitable. This means that the Gers are formal settlements in legal terms but are indistinguishable from slums in physical form.

Fig. 01

Streets of Baynkhoshuu Ger Areas.

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BETWEEN TRADITION AND TRANSITION: THE REDEVELOPMENT OF GER AREAS Since 2013, Ger settlements have been subject to a redevelopment process initiated through the Ulaanbaatar 2020 Master Plan and Development Approaches for 2030 (UMP). This plan addresses some of the many challenges Ger communities face. The UMP describes a process in which the government redevelops Ger Districts and provides critical infrastructure to the catchment areas. The aim is to limit the expansion of informal neighborhoods through the construction of high and mid-rise apartments in central Ger districts, mid-to-low rise apartments in the middle areas, and private houses with self-sustaining utilities on the fringe of the city. In many circumstances, Ger plots are restructured into consolidated apartment blocks, and settlers are relocated into social housing units.06 The government then returns a share of the overall new developments that is equal to the landowners’ previous property value. 07 Urban redevelopment of Ger areas presents a significant dilemma. Mongolia’s traditional land laws prioritize public ownership and community control. This contrasts the country’s new marketdriven housing policies that prioritize economic growth. Such tension is evident in the struggle to redevelop informal neighborhoods to enhance urban infrastructure and ensure sustainable growth whilst avoiding risks of extracting valuable assets from Ger area residents. Therefore, urban redevelopment processes, while intended to improve social welfare, can also prompt redevelopment-induced displacement of residents.

Market-driven approaches often risk involuntary displacement and exacerbate vulnerabilities among marginalized groups.08 The integration of Ger areas into the city’s formal infrastructure remains a pressing challenge, as inadequate execution risks marginalizing residents further.

Despite Ger area’s growing relevance and extensive presence in Ulaanbaatar’s urban culture and economy, I was surprised by the lack of academic attention on the topic, particularly in the qualitative approach. Empowered to learn beyond what was available, I began my first independent research project in my 3rd year at the University of Toronto. During the soaring heat of June to August in 2022, I found myself getting well acquainted with the streets and the people of the Bayankhoshuu sub-center. I spent my days knocking door to door, running away from neighborhood dogs, and sipping Mongolian milk tea in Gers as I hosted conversational interviews with locals. At the core of these discussions was

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the objective to analyze urban redevelopmentinduced displacement trends in Ulaanbaatar’s Ger areas by empowering residents to share their lived experiences in Ger areas. My research introduced a qualitative analysis of how residents are impacted by urban redevelopment and its potential implications on these neighborhoods by analyzing the lived experiences of individuals who have contributed their land for the redevelopment efforts.

BEYOND BLUEPRINTS: HOW REDEVELOPMENT SHAPES GER LIVES Beyond many findings, conversations with Ger area households revealed a critical oversight in policy and planning. All redevelopment strategies failed to account for the traditional Mongolian way of life, where multiple households often share land owned by a single landowner. As of 2019, 48 percent of vacated khashaas (fenced plots) housed more than two families. 09 Despite the prevalence of renters in Ger areas, they are not included in any stages of discussions related to the redevelopment process or the tripartite agreement. As a result, urban redevelopment has induced displacement of low-income residents, and increased urban inequality among households who lack land tenure.

According to the “Land Clearance and Resettlement Plan,” developed under the Asian Development Bank’s Social Security Policy, households without land rights who are displaced by the project must be provided with land under conditions no worse than their current living situation.10 Despite this requirement, my research highlights that many untenured residents are actively displaced during the redevelopment project without compensation.

An interview with a government official in the Department of Housing Policy of the Capital City revealed that: The project was logically flawed from the outset. One of the problems that Ulaanbaatar is facing with the redevelopment is that the City started redevelopment without understanding the social multilateral relationships that exist in Ger areas.

Currently, status of the tenure-holding households is prioritized, and non-tenure holders are overlooked. What the City is trying to do is eliminate Ger areas. In the process of relocating tenured households, the City is adding two more untenured households to another undeveloped

area. The redevelopment legal and policy framework is not only weak, but ill-equipped to protect the rights of those impacted by the redevelopment process.

By 2019, following the start of the redevelopment, 253 untenured households were displaced without any compensation or assistance.11 Such displacement of households who lack and tenure is a recurring theme in the interview process. A 27-year-old female resident living on her father-inlaw’s land indicates that: Because the redevelopment project is carried out by the Government, we cannot object to it. Given that the land right is granted to my father-in-law, it does not matter how many families actually live on that land. The City granted one apartment to three families” (Interview).

A 63-year-old male landowner similarly states: I am happy with the project outcome. We moved into an apartment last year. But there were three households who used to live on our land with us. They have nowhere to live today. I heard two of the families live in their cousins’ khashaas (Interview).

My research highlights that many Ger area residents constructed—and to an extent, defended—their communities, creating new forms of urbanism (Interviews).

Despite this resiliency, Ger area residents are the most vulnerable stakeholders in the process of redevelopment. Conversation with the Government Official in the Songinokhairkhan district highlights the lack of transitional housing to support households involved in the redevelopment. As a 51-year-old mother indicates: In October 2020, the Capital City Housing Corporation requested us to give our property for redevelopment purposes and get an apartment in exchange. In four months, we moved from Baynkhoshuu to Buyant Ukhaa. My son and his family couldn’t get compensated since I was the landowner. The Housing Corporation staff said they could not provide transitional housing for his family while we tried to find them a place to live. We tried to rent a studio for him, but we couldn’t afford it.

His family has been homeless since March 2021. I know more than 20 people who are

homeless because their land went under redevelopment (Interview).

For individuals whose applications were accepted to live in transitional housing, experiences weren’t much better. After her father contributed his land to the redevelopment efforts, a 45-year-old female resident had nowhere to go with her husband and five kids, despite living on the land for more than 20 years. When she reached out to the Housing Corporation for assistance, the family was asked to wait one year to move into a unit. During this time, the family had to “couch surf ” in different people’s homes (Interviews).

Now that the family had been living in transitional housing for a year, they had been requested to vacate the apartment: My husband is the only person in the family who works. To buy an apartment with leasing, we must have to pay at least 2030 percent up-front. To save that amount of money, my kids would have to starve (Interview).

These conversations highlight a major flaw in the agenda: special measures that allow for equal participation of all residents (including nonlandowners) in consultation. While redevelopment requires relocation of people, any eviction must abide with Mongolia’s obligation under international human rights standards.12 Not only are untenured residents excluded from all consultation processes, but they also do not receive any form of compensation or redress. By framing housing as a social infrastructure, this research highlights how housing and infrastructure provisioning can be sites of production for urban opportunities for some communities, but inequality for others. The interviews present housing beyond its mere usevalue, but as infrastructures that have the power to create unjust social and structural processes in cities.13 THE INFORMALITY PARADOX At face value, informality is deemed as a land use problem. Managing this problem has often involved efforts to restore “order”or bring it into the formal market. 14,15 While these perspectives differ, both accounts see informality as separate from and opposite to formality. For example, Hall and Germany see the informal sector as a product of the poor, who themselves created their own city outside of the bureaucratic apparatus of planning and control.16 De Soto argues that informal sectors are separate from formality, restricting low-

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income citizens from capitalizing on their assets.17 Both ideas implicitly conceptualize informality as a space that will eventually and ideally be integrated into a manageable built and economic environment. These perspectives can enable the idea of the poor helping themselves.18 It promotes self-help ideals that delegate the responsibility for poverty to the poor—ultimately undermining the role of the state and other actors in instituting larger structural change.

Among many important findings, my research demonstrates that the redevelopment agenda fails to recognize the multidimensional nature of urban redevelopment and how its repercussions develop in path-dependent ways—impacting stakeholders unevenly. While redevelopment of Ger areas can have positive externalities for some residents, it can also become an apparatus of forced eviction and homelessness for others. Policy analysis and discussion with government officials reveals the lack of safeguards to prevent this redevelopmentinduced displacement. Discussions with residents of the Baynkhoshuu sub-center indicate that the outcomes associated with the redevelopment project vary across different households, depending on factors like their tenure status, social

Fig. 02

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Streets of Baynkhoshuu Ger Areas.

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connections, and economic standing. The research recommends the state to put in place special measures to include marginalized communities in consultation processes and facilitate effective community engagement programs to allow for active participation of residents in decision-making processes.

The qualitative perspective sought to capture residents’ diverse attitudes and experiences, uncover urban redevelopment as a dynamic process, and recognize the importance of placing urban redevelopment processes within their broader institutional and social context. With developing cities increasingly seeking so-called ‘global city ambitions’ that are free from slums, many neighborhoods are rapidly urbanizing. In this ongoing setting, it is of utmost importance to prevent agenda priorities from tilting towards the value of properties over residents’ social needs and rights.

ENDNOTES 01

Choi and Enkhbat, “Distributional Effects of Ger Area Redevelopment in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

02

City of Ulaanbaatar, “Ulaanbaatar 2020 Master Plan and Development Approaches for 2030, General Summary for Public.”

11

City of Ulaanbaatar, Ulaanbaatar Urban Services and Ger Areas Development Investment Program: 2019 Progress Report, 2020.

12

Amnesty International, Falling Short of the Right to Adequate Housing in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2016.

03

Cities Alliance, “Citywide Pro-Poor Ger Area Upgrading Strategy of Ulaanbaatar City | UN-Habitat.”

13

Alam and Houston, “Rethinking Care as Alternate Infrastructure.”

04

UN Habitat, “ The Challenge of Slums - Global Report on Human Settlements 2003 | UN-Habitat.”

14

05

Choi and Enkhbat, “Distributional Effects of Ger Area Redevelopment in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Peter Hall and Ulrich Pfeiffer, Urban Future 21: A Global Agenda for Twenty-First Century Cities (London: E & FN Spon, 2000).

15

Hernando de Soto, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else (New York: Basic Books, 2000).

16

Peter Hall and Ulrich Pfeiffer, Urban Future 21: A Global Agenda for Twenty-First Century Cities (London: E & FN Spon, 2000).

17

Hernando de Soto, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else (New York: Basic Books, 2000).

18

Roy, “Urban Informality: Toward an Epistemology of Planning.”

06

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, “Ulaanbataar 2020 Master Plan and Development Approaches for 2030 | ESCAP Policy Documents Managment.”

07

Amirtahmasebi et al., Regenerating Urban Land.

08

Shin, “Property-Based Redevelopment and Gentrification: The Case of Seoul, South Korea.”

09

City of Ulaanbaatar, Ulaanbaatar Urban Services and Ger Areas Development Investment Program: 2019 Progress Report, 2020.

10

Municipality of Ulaanbaatar, Ulaanbaatar Green Affordable Housing and Resilient Urban Renewal Project, December 2017.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Khulan Enkhbold is a second-year Master of City Planning (MCP) student at the University of Pennsylvania, concentrating in Housing, Community, and Economic Development. Born and raised between New Delhi, India, and her hometown of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, she developed a deep interest in urban development across diverse contexts. She earned her undergraduate degree from the University of Toronto, where she double majored in Urban Studies and Human Geography with a focus on Urban Planning and minored in GIS. Her academic and professional interests center on the intersection of informal settlements, housing policy, and urban redevelopment. Khulan is currently conducting an independent research project on Ulaanbaatar’s informal “Ger areas,” examining the lived experiences of individuals who have contributed their land to redevelopment efforts.

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OPENINGS Heddy Parker

What is vacant Acts as an opening.

Openings are opportunities But these are empty.

An opportunity for a space to be Filled, decorated, and adorned.

Without a business to call them Home, they sit lonely, Looming over passersby.

Walked through, Frequented and formed.

Lived in.

Their reflective frontages Pressed to the edge Of allowable encroachment.

San Francisco’s East Cut Offers 86 such spaces Spanning 58 of its addresses.

They sit lonely And likely to be filled By big names that won’t make Them any less so.

Many are on their first cycle of life, the ground floors of the big tech and finance office towers.

As vacancies They are openings to be lived in.

Some used to be businesses That fell as downtown deteriorated.

They wait for what is in store.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Heddy Parker (she/her) is a first year Master of City Planning student, focusing in on urban development and design. Originally from San Francisco, CA, Heddy is drawn to understanding process, actor networks, and the delegation of decisions as they shape place and impact people.

She aims to pursue affordable housing development, as it intersects with economic and community development at a neighborhood-scale. Outside of school, Heddy enjoys long walks in new spaces, swimming or otherwise being near water, engaging Francophone strangers in French, cooking and spending time with family and friends, and struggling through beginner Polish.

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ENHANCING SAINT-LOUIS’S LOCAL CAPACITY

Building the Basis for Sustainable & Integrated Water Resources Management Sylvanus Duamor SAINT-LOUIS IN CONTEXT Saint-Louis is a city located on the northwest coast of Senegal, near the mouth of the Senegal River. It is approximately 320 kilometers (200 miles) north of Dakar, the capital city of Senegal (Fig. 01). The city lies within the Sahelian zone, a desert band that separates the dunes of the Sahara from the baobabs of the savanna, which defines its semi-arid climate.01

Like most West African cities, Saint-Louis experiences two distinct seasons: dry and rainy.

The rainy season lasts from late June to midOctober, with the heaviest rainfall typically occurring in August. The rest of the year is quite dry, with little to no rainfall. As one of the northernmost cities in the country and one of the closest to the Sahara Desert, Saint-Louis receives relatively low precipitation during the rainy season, amounting to only 240-350 mm (9.5-13.5 inches) per year (Fig. 02).02 Saint-Louis Commune has a population of approximately 254,171 as of the 2023 census, with a population density of about 4,000 people per square kilometer. The larger administrative area, Saint-Louis Department, has a population of 387,368 and a population density of about 483 people per square kilometer. Between 2013 and 2023, the annual growth rates for the Commune and Department were 2% and 2.8%, respectively.03 This difference in growth rates may be attributed to migration from the densely populated Commune to other parts of the Department.

Saint-Louis has a rich history as a former French colonial capital. Founded in 1659, it became the capital of the French colony of Senegal and later the capital of French West Africa before the capital was moved to Dakar. Due to its historical and cultural significance, it was designated as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2000. This recognition has boosted tourism, adding to the city’s primarily agrarian economy.04

Fig. 01

Map showing Saint-Louis in the context of the Sahelian Region Map

MANAGING FRAGILE FRESHWATER RESOURCES The Sahelian region is considerably fragile in terms of its water resources. It is often afflicted with droughts caused primarily by various human-induced climate change processes such as deforestation and the expansions of arable farms which makes access to water for potable uses a major challenge.05

Fig. 02

Observed Weather in Saint-Louis (2023).

Source: WeatherSpark.com

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Saint-Louis Commune has relatively fragile freshwater resources compared to its eastern neighbors. Its proximity to the sea has led to the intrusion of saltwater into the lower sections of the Senegal River, as well as into shallow aquifers and soils. In 2003, an artificial breach was created on the Langue de Barbarie, a sand spit at the mouth of the Senegal River, to mitigate flooding in the city. However, this breach has exacerbated the salination process, and climate change is expected to worsen the situation.06 Consequently, the Commune relied primarily on the Bango freshwater reservoir for potable water.07 The reservoir is located on one of the tributaries of the Senegal River, less than 10 km from the northeastern exit of the city of Saint-Louis. The Bango reservoir has three structures that control water flows (Figure 3). Water is pumped to the Khor treatment plant where it is treated and stored in three water towers that can store about 1,200m3 of water. The city’s distribution network is about 196 km long which connects about 14,050 households and 166 drinking fountains. Nonetheless, the quality of service is poor, especially at the fringes of the city.08 Saint-Louis has recently benefited from the development of a new wellfield, the Ndiock-Sall wellfield, located about 50 kilometers from SaintLouis. This wellfield has been equipped with two new boreholes, each with a capacity of 200 cubic meters per hour. The project also included laying 50 kilometers of pipes to transport the water to the Leybar water tower at the entrance to the city.09 The city’s water portfolio is, hence, expected to be characterized by 60% surface water and 40% groundwater. However, the city must work to have a more diversified portfolio (Figure 4).

MANAGING WASTEWATER AND STORMWATER Wastewater management in Saint-Louis has been generally lacking until recently. Traditional latrines have been the predominant toilet facilities in and around the city, and the main method of disposing of domestic wastewater has been the streets and courtyards.10 The sewer systems in the city are largely inadequate with less than 40% coverage. 11 Most non-sewered toilets have septic tanks or other lined substructures. Due to this, fecal waste collection is dominated by the private sector. 12 In terms of stormwater management, the city relies primarily on gutters and collectors that transport stormwater to a lagoon-type wastewater treatment plant and stormwater basins.13

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To improve wastewater stormwater management, the Senegalese government launched a sanitation program for the 10 cities including Saint-Louis in 2017. A significant part of the program is to build more than 75km of wastewater network and 10 wastewater pumping stations in the city.14 Additionally, the city has begun efforts to treat and reuse wastewater.

In 2018, the University of Gaston Berger, in collaboration with the University of Barcelona and the SEDAQUA company, initiated a pilot project to construct a multistage constructed wetland (CW) to treat municipal wastewater to a point where it is suitable for irrigating crops. 15,16 PLANNING EFFORTS AND CONSTRAINTS

Fig. 03

Map Showing Saint-Louis’s Water Infrastructure

Fig. 04

Saint-Louis’s Water Portfolio

Fig. 05

Saint-Louis Water Challenges Mapping

Like many cities in the Sub-Saharan region, planning for water and sanitation in Saint-Louis has been held up by several constraints, especially inadequate financial and human resources, as well as water policies and strategies.

The Senegalese government, over the past few decades, has made serious efforts to address water and sanitation problems.17,18 One of the recent and most significant efforts was the Water and Sanitation Millennium Program (PEPAM), an initiative aimed at improving access

to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services across the country. Implemented from 2009 to 2014, PEPAM focused on enhancing the provision, reliability, and security of these essential services. The program marked a significant shift in how water and sanitation projects were planned, organized, and managed in Senegal.

Post-evaluation reports show that though the strategy has been largely successful, some sustainability challenges persist. Many of the water management committees struggled to implement best practices and the majority were unable to gather sufficient funds from fees to pay for operations and maintenance. 19

resource constraints. Water scarcity in Saint-Louis, therefore, takes many forms including physical, economical, managerial and institutional (Figure 5).20

MAPPING SAINTLOUIS’S WATER MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES

3. Investing in Nature-Based Solutions: Implementing solutions such as green infrastructure to manage stormwater, reduce runoff, and improve water quality.

These nature-based interventions can provide multiple environmental benefits and enhance the city’s resilience to climate change.

As indicated in earlier sections, Saint-Louis is facing critical challenges to the quantity, quality and timing of its water supply.

The city’s location on the Senegal River Delta and distinctive geographic features coupled with dramatic climate variabilities are impacting its water resources. Further, the deteriorating condition of the city’s freshwater is exacerbated by urbanization, inadequate water and sanitation planning and management, and financial and human

IDENTIFYING AND SELECTING ALTERNATIVE INTERVENTIONS Three alternative interventions have been identified to improve water management in SaintLouis: 1. Investing in Structural Projects: This includes expanding water infrastructure networks to every home, constructing sophisticated wastewater treatment plants to enable direct potable reuse, and building desalination plants. These projects would significantly enhance the city’s water supply and quality.

2. Enhancing Local Capacity for IWRM: This involves strengthening the city’s ability to plan and implement innovative interventions within the framework of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). This approach would ensure that water resources are managed holistically and sustainably.

While all three interventions are viable and the implementation of any of them would bring significant benefits, the most pressing challenge identified is the inadequate local capacity to plan and implement innovative interventions.

Addressing this challenge is essential for sustainable and resilient water management in Saint-Louis. With a well-resourced local government, many of the other challenges can be effectively tackled. Enhanced capacity would enable the local government to leverage resources from other sectors of the city’s economy, such as tourism, and coordinate more effectively with regional and central governments on water management issues. Additionally, a capable local government can develop innovative plans and programs that attract external investment, helping the city to meet expanding water and sanitation

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demands while ensuring climate resilience.

Therefore, enhancing local capacity is the recommended initial intervention, with the other alternatives to be implemented subsequently.

ENHANCING SAINT-LOUIS’S LOCAL CAPACITY FOR SUSTAINABLE AND INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Saint-Louis has several pressing water management challenges which need to be addressed strategically. Enhancing the city’s local capacity to plan and implement innovative interventions will be a strategic step towards addressing other challenges and lead the way to achieving sustainable and integrated water resources management in Saint-Louis.

OVERALL GOAL: To improve the city government, private sector and resident’s capacity to sustainably manage water resources.

OBJECTIVES: 1. To enhance the city government’s capacity to plan and implement IWRM. 2. To foster public-private partnerships for improved water management.

3. To enhance residents’ knowledge regarding sustainable practices.

OBJECTIVE 01: CIT Y GOVERNMENT One of the main challenges related to institutional scarcity in Saint-Louis was a highly centralized water governance system. All water management related plans and programs were carried out and implemented using a top-down approach. The national water company of Senegal, Société Nationale des Eaux du Sénégal (SONES), is responsible for planning and securing financing for water infrastructure projects, managing national water assets, ensuring that the infrastructure is maintained and upgraded as needed, and engaging in public awareness campaigns to promote water conservation and educate the public about water management issues.21 Given Saint-Louis’s unique position as a delta city, it faces distinct challenges, particularly those exacerbated by climate change. The city’s

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vulnerability to sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, and increased flooding necessitates a proactive and tailored approach to urban planning and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is crucial for Saint-Louis to assume a leadership role in planning and implementing innovative interventions specifically designed to address its unique environmental and socio-economic conditions. By taking on these functions, the city can develop and execute strategies that mitigate the impacts of climate change, protect its freshwater resources, and enhance its resilience.

Two main strategies to achieve this objective.

They include: 1. Establish a Water and Sanitation Department at the city department level in collaboration with SONES. Key responsibilities will include: a. Managing the city’s water resources. b. Providing drinking water, wastewater and stormwater services to customers with the city. c. Maintaining and operating water and sanitation infrastructure in the city.

2. Establish a capacity building program targeted at the managerial and operational levels. This is essential to ensure that the Water and Sanitation Department functions efficiently and effectively to achieve its mandates. a. Managerial level focus: leadership development, strategic planning, performance management and communication skills. b. Operational level focus: technical knowhow, quality control, process optimization.

OBJECTIVE 02: PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS This objective has one crucial strategy, which is to create an enabling environment for private sector participation in water and sanitation management. The private sector plays a key role in wastewater management in the city. The private sector leads the supply of fecal waste collection and transportation services, providing mechanical and manual pit emptying services. These sanitation

service providers (SSPs) typically service toilets with septic tanks or lined pits.22 The Ministry of Water and Sanitation plans to shift its priorities from increasing sewer coverage to supporting private sector SSPs. It expects that the demand for their services will increase steadily due to urbanization currently outpacing sewer connections and the government’s proposed changes to its safe Fecal Sludge Market Strategy.23 Saint-Louis can, therefore, leverage these opportunities to foster an enabling environment for private sector participation in water and sanitation management. The newly formed Water and Sanitation Department can engage the SSPs on various issues such as accessible and affordable services to the urban poor and formalization of the private sector through accreditation.24 Additionally, the Senegalese government is embarking on a circular sanitation economy focused on transforming waste into valuable resources. The Office National de l’Assainissement du Sénégal (ONAS), a public industrial and commercial establishment responsible for managing the sanitation sector in Senegal, has been exploring the recovery and sale of treated fecal sludge and reuse of tertiary treated wastewater for horticulture.25 Saint-Louis can leverage private sector participation to expand these initiatives. This collaborative approach can also drive innovation and efficiency, benefiting both the community and the private sector.

OBJECTIVE 03: COMMUNIT Y ENGAGEMENT This objective has one fundamental strategy, which is to create awareness of the challenges of water and sanitation management in the city and promote sustainable practices. This strategy involves three key components:

Fig. 06

1. Community Engagement: Engage with local communities through town hall meetings, focus groups, and participatory workshops. These forums will provide opportunities for residents to voice their concerns, share ideas, and collaborate on solutions. By involving the community, the city can foster a sense of ownership and responsibility towards sustainable water and sanitation practices.

2. Public Education Campaigns: Launch comprehensive public education campaigns to inform residents about the importance of water conservation, proper sanitation practices, and the impacts of climate change on local water resources.

These campaigns will utilize various media, including social media, local radio, community workshops, flyers, and posters, to reach all of Saint-Louis’s residents.

3. School Programs: Integrate water and sanitation education into school curricula to teach children about the importance of these issues. The Water and Sanitation Department will engage with schools to organize field trips to water treatment plants, conduct science projects related to water conservation, and invite experts to speak to students.

TIMELINE FOR IMPLEMENTATION It is anticipated that the implementation of the three objectives will be completed within two years. By the end of the first year, it is expected that the projects will have fully taken off, with pilot projects initiated. The second year will focus on monitoring and evaluating progress, as well as planning for future projects.

Implementation Timeline

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SECURING FUNDING FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT IN SAINT-LOUIS Leveraging Saint-Louis’s UNESCO World Heritage site designation and its unique geographic character can be a powerful strategy to attract funding for water management interventions. The city’s historical and cultural significance, recognized globally, provides a compelling narrative that can be used to appeal to both the central government and international agencies. By highlighting the importance of preserving this heritage site, the city can make a strong case for the necessity of sustainable water management practices. This approach not only emphasizes the need to protect the city’s cultural assets but also underscores the broader environmental and social benefits of improved water resources management.

Additionally, Saint-Louis’s location at the western edge of the Great Green Wall initiative offers another strategic advantage. This ambitious project aims to combat desertification and promote sustainable land use across the Sahel region. By aligning its water management goals with the objectives of the Great Green Wall, Saint-Louis can tap into a broader network of funding and support dedicated to environmental sustainability and climate resilience.

To effectively solicit funding, it will be essential to develop detailed proposals that outline the specific interventions highlighted in this brief. These proposals should include comprehensive plans that demonstrate the feasibility and long-term benefits of the projects. Engaging with potential funders through targeted outreach and partnerships will be crucial. This might involve hosting site visits, presenting at international forums, and building alliances with organizations that have a vested

interest in heritage conservation and sustainable development. By combining the city’s unique attributes with strategic advocacy and robust planning, Saint-Louis can secure the necessary financial support to implement these innovative water management solutions.

TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE AND INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN SAINTLOUIS Enhancing the city’s local capacity to plan and implement innovative interventions is a strategic step towards addressing Saint-Louis’s water challenges and achieving sustainable and integrated water resources management (IWRM).

By strengthening the city government’s capacity to plan and implement IWRM, fostering public-private partnerships for improved water management, and increasing residents’ knowledge of sustainable practices, Saint-Louis will be better positioned to achieve these goals.

The next steps for Saint-Louis will include expanding the city’s water infrastructure network, diversifying the city’s water portfolio by investing in potable water reuse and rainwater harvesting, and investing in nature-based solutions to address flooding and water quality issues. Implementing these measures will require comprehensive and strategic planning, including the development of robust infrastructure and design frameworks.

It will also require collaboration among various stakeholders, such as government agencies, private sector partners, and the local community, to ensure the successful integration of these systems. Additionally, public education and awareness campaigns will be essential to promote the acceptance and proper use of these new water sources, ultimately contributing to a more resilient and sustainable water management system in Saint-Louis.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Sylvanus Narh Duamor is a second-year Master of City Planning student in the Land Use and Environmental Planning concentration. Sylvanus is passionate about promoting land use and environmental planning through research and practice, with a special focus on advancing environmental sustainability through climate adaptation and resilience and energy policy. He aims to provide constructive contributions to local, regional and international development planning efforts.

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ENDNOTES 01

Saint-Louis du Sénégal. (n.d.). Une cité magique. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https://www.saintlouisdusenegal. com/cite-magique/.

13

Ministère de l’Urbanisme, de l’Habitat, de l’Hydraulique Urbaine, de l’Hygiène Publique et de l’Assainissement.

(2008).

02

Climates to Travel. (n.d.). Senegal climate: Average weather, temperature, rain. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/senegal.

14

Takouleu, J. M. (2023, August 25).

15

Torrens Armengol, A., de la Varga, D., & Khafor Ndiaye, A. (2020). Municipal wastewater treatment and reuse for agriculture in Senegal. Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https:// diposit.ub.edu/dspace/handle/2445/173050.

16

Ndiaye, A. K., Coundoul, F., Deme, A., Armengol, A. T., & Senghor, A. (2024). Performance of a horizontal flow constructed reed bed filter for municipal wastewater treatment: The case study of the prototype installed at Gaston Berger University, Saint-Louis, Senegal. Natural Resources, 15, 1-16. Retrieved from http://repository. journal4submission.com/id/eprint/3570/.

17

Diouf, K., Hellier, E., Fall, A. N., Taibi, A., Kane, A., & Ballouche, A. (2024). Les inégalités environnementales d’accès à l’eau en espace rural: défauts de gouvernance de la ressource ou problématique de justice spatiale?

Le cas de l’axe Gorom Lampsar (delta du fleuve Sénégal). VertigO-la revue électronique en sciences de l’environnement, 24(1).

03

City Population. (n.d.). Saint-Louis (Commune, Senegal) Population statistics, charts, map and location. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https://www.citypopulation.de/ en/senegal/mun/admin/saint_louis/SN10035100__saint_ louis/.

04

Saint-Louis du Sénégal. (n.d.). Une cité magique. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https://www.saintlouisdusenegal. com/cite-magique/.

05

Denisova, T. S., & Kostelyanets, S. V. (2024). The water problem in the Western Sahel: Water scarcity, government policies and conflicts between herders and farmers. Global Change, Peace & Security, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/147 81158.2024.2425983.

06

Sarr, M. A., Pouye, I., Sene, A., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Diouf, A. A., Samb, F., Ndiaye, M. L., & Sall, M. (2024). Monitoring and forecasting of coastal erosion in the context of climate change in Saint-Louis (Senegal). Geographies, 4(2), 287303. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies4020017.

07

PDIDAS. (2020). Étude d’impact environnemental et social du projet de développement inclusif et durable de l’agrobusiness au Sénégal (PDIDAS). Retrieved December 11, 2024, from http://www.pdidas.org/images/documents/ EIE%20PDIDAS_Ngalam%20Ind%20_VF.pdf.

08

Ministère de l’Urbanisme, de l’Habitat, de l’Hydraulique Urbaine, de l’Hygiène Publique et de l’Assainissement.

(2008). Plan Directeur d’Urbanisme PDU – Saint-Louis Horizon 2025: Rapport de présentation. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from http://www.pdudakar.gouv.sn/ IMG/pdf/rapport_de_presentation_du_pdu_de_saint_ louis.pdf.

09

Takouleu, J. M. (2023, August 25). Senegal: Water pumped from Ndiock-Sall improves daily lives of Saint-Louis residents. Afrik 21. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https://www.afrik21.africa/en/senegal-water-pumpedfrom-ndiock-sall-improves-daily-lives-of-saint-louisresidents/.

10

Diop, C. (2017). Water and sanitation in the neighborhood of guet ndar-Senegal. International Journal of Engineering Works, 4(5), 93-100.

11

Ministère de l’Urbanisme, de l’Habitat, de l’Hydraulique Urbaine, de l’Hygiène Publique et de l’Assainissement.

(2008).

12

USAID. (2020). Senegal small-scale sanitation market assessment: Final report. Global Waters. https://www. globalwaters.org/sites/default/files/washpals_senegal_ sma_final_report_en_vf.pdf.

18

Takouleu, J. M. (2023, August 25).

19

USAID. (2019). Ex-post evaluation report: Millennium Water And Sanitation Program (PEPAM/USAID) Ex-Post Evaluation. WASH Ex-Post Evaluation Series—Water Communications and Knowledge Management (CKM) Project. Global Waters. https://www.globalwaters.org/ sites/default/files/ex-post-evaluation-millennium-pepamwith-annexes.pdf.

20

Molle, F., & Mollinga, P. (2003). Water poverty indicators: conceptual problems and policy issues. Water policy, 5(56), 529-544.

21

SONES. (n.d.). National Water Company of Senegal. http:// www.sones.sn/.

22

USAID. (2020).

23

ONAS, & Ministry of Water and Sanitation, S. (2021). Study on the Scale Program of the Structuring of the Fecal Sludge Market. Dakar: Cabinet ede Ingenieurs Conseils Assainissement - Eau - Environment.

24

Mbéguéré, M. (2013). Structuring of the fecal sludge market for the benefit of poor households in Dakar, Senegal (ONAS). Various documents on results from research grant.

Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https://www.susana. org/knowledge-hub/resources?id=1817#.

25

World Bank. (2021). Water in circular economy and resilience (WICER): The case of Dakar, Senegal. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/341621631221903660/pdf/Water-in-Circular-Economyand-Resilience-WICER-The-Case-of-Dakar-Senegal.pdf.

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Fig. 01

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Study Area Infrastructure Development

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DAKAR GREENBELT STUDIO Some of the fastest-growing urban areas in the world are on the African continent. With rapid urban expansion comes a tension between development and protection for both fragile ecosystems and valuable agricultural land.

Dakar, the Senegalese capital, with close to four million inhabitants, seems at its current trajectory to be following other global metropolises in being mostly unplanned, unsustainable, and unjust.

New and proposed infrastructure in the city that is intended to foster economic development and help decongest, such as a new administrative district, deep-sea port, and airport, will result in greater formal and informal sprawl. Conurbations are already forming between the large neighboring cities of Thies and Mbour. A new highway has been proposed to replace a dense coastal forest that protects prime agricultural land known as the Niaye.

Fig. 02

West Africa

Fig. 03

Urban expansion in all directions will make it challenging to provide services to informal settlements and to combat land degradation, excessive flooding, water shortages, biodiversity loss, and the urban heat island effect, all of which will be exacerbated by climate change. A high percentage of this rapid growth also includes self-constructed, informal settlements. These communities, usually at the fringes of large cities, are often disconnected from physical and social infrastructure, including housing, public space, and job opportunities. They are also disproportionately exposed to environmental hazards. Such challenges are not addressed by conventional planning methods.

Senegal

Fig. 04

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Dakar and Thies Regions

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Dakar is also the westernmost segment of the Great Green Wall Initiative (GGWI). Launched by the African Union in 2007, this large-scale transcontinental initiative aims to halt the expansion of the Sahara Desert and restore 100 million hectares of degraded drylands that sustain at-risk communities across 11 countries in the African Sahel. Originally promoted as a corridor spanning from Dakar to Djibouti, the GGWI has mainly focused on rural landscapes.

Integrating Dakar into the initiative, however, requires consideration for informal settlements, highways, and other hard infrastructure, while also incorporating wetlands, lakes, coastlines, forests, and agriculture.

The Dakar Greenbelt Studio worked towards developing a greenbelt infrastructure for the Dakar region, with students from Weitzman’s City Planning and Landscape Architecture programs collaborating to create conceptual plans and designs for sites in and around the city chosen

by Senegalese partners. The sites that planners studied and designed for include Lac Mbeubeuss and Lac Rose, two lakes at the city’s periphery that are experiencing rapid development. Lac Mbeubeuss is home to an expansive illegal dump for the metropolitan area. At the same time, the neighboring Lac Rose is a natural treasure on the

cusp of being lost to unplanned development. The last site is Diamniadio, a planned and partially constructed new urban pole triangulated by Dakar, Thies, and Mbour. The city is currently based in valuable farmland and greenfield sites that are rapidly being transformed by transportation infrastructure, large capital projects, and informal settlements.

The students travelled to Dakar in October 2024 to organize workshops with local stakeholders and conduct site visits. After an extensive period of research, site mapping, and discussion with project partners, the students developed conceptual plans for the three sites.

REINTEGRATING HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMS AT MBEUBEUSS The Mbeubeuss landfill was established on Lac Mbeubeuss, an area that was once on the outskirts of Dakar. Over time, however, rapid and precarious urban growth has surrounded the site, and Mbeubeuss serves as the primary location for waste dumping for the metropolitan area. Many live on or around the landfill, suffering from health and environmental hazards from pollution and flooding that impacts the coastal area. At the same

Fig. 05

Site Plan

Fig. 06

Current and Proposed Waste Management Systems

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time, there is also a community of around 2000 waste pickers that make a living from recycling and sorting materials that pass through the landfill.

The community in and around Mbeubeuss is simultaneously exposed to harm but also derives economic benefit from the landfill. To improve living and environmental conditions while ensuring continued economic health, it is necessary to reintegrate human and natural systems at Mbeubeuss.

Students developed a framework for a just transition of the solid waste management system in Mbeubeuss and the broader region, including the neighboring Lac Wouye. This includes the transformation of the Mbeubeuss landfill into a recycling park with associated job training and opportunity, as well as a series of treatment wetlands to address contamination. Instead of the Mbeubeuss landfill, the proposed waste management stream includes material sorting at the neighborhood level, with waste being sent to recycling, compost, or smaller, more responsible landfill destinations. Other initiatives include resettlement housing for former residents of the landfill and flood prone areas, new economic opportunity in terms of material banking and recycling, better connection to a Sufi Muslim pilgrimage site in Malika, and other interventions in housing, workforce, and public space that intend to stitch community together.

Fig. 08

Fig. 07

Engagement at a Lakes Workshop in Guediawaye

View of Proposed Recycling Center

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PROTECT, IMPROVE, GUIDE, SUPPORT LAC ROSE Lac Rose is famous for its pink color caused by Dunaliella salina algae and its high salt content.

The unique environment has brough tourism and development, as well as multiple industries, including salt harvesting, fishing, and small-scale agriculture. However, the area has been facing environmental threats in recent years, mainly improperly managed wastewater and increasing urbanization. Informal settlements encroach on

Fig. 09

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Site Plan for Lac Rose and Surrounding Community

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ecologically important sand dunes and other green systems, and roads are winding, sandy, and vulnerable to flooding.

Students created a plan to protect, improve, guide, and support the area around Lac Rose in its transition phase to a more connective, communitycentered region that preserves green areas and manages water responsibly. Conceptual designs include a Tourist Village for the area west of Lac Rose, and an Eco-Urban Zone south of Lac Rose.

Fig. 10

Lac Rose South

Fig. 11

Lac Rose West

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IMAGINING AN EQUITABLE FUTURE FOR DIAMNIADIO Diamniadio was commissioned by former president Macky Sall in 2014 as a show of national strength and technological advancement. In addition to large capital projects, there has been a planned transfer of ministries from Dakar to Diamniadio. However, there is little access to the city for those living nearby. Diamniadio remains isolated and inaccessible, with depleting blue-green networks and little transportation connections beyond the Dakar-Diamniadio highway cutting through the center of the city.

Fig. 12

Planning for Diamniadio focused on two separate locations within the city – the southeast and the northwest of the city. In the southeast, students focused on bridging the divide between the formal and informal settlements that were separated by new infrastructure. In the northwest, students worked on a Sports City-Metro Park Master Plan to mitigate sprawl while celebrating the rich local culture. The goals for both of these projects include creating a multimodal mobility system, integrating the blue-green system to protect local environmental systems and agricultural land from development, activating public space, and promoting mixed-use development.

Green Connectors

Fig. 14 Fig. 13

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Existing and Proposed Infrastructure

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Street Design

Fig. 15

Plans for Diamniadio

Studio Team

• Brianna Belo • Christian Butts • Sylvanus Duamor • Hailey Hyun • E Chin Li • Mariya Lupandina • Maho Sakuma • Claudia Schreier • Viva Wan • Yaohan Xu • Shihang Yan • Tianyu (Neve) Zhang

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NEW REALITY, OLD STORY Revathi Machan Climate migration refers to the movement of people who are forced to leave their homes (temporarily or permanently) due to changes in their environment that were caused by climate change. While the federal government has yet to explicitly acknowledge this challenge, leading experts in the field define it as disaster-induced displacement including “both weather-related hazards (e.g. storms, floods...) and geophysical hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis)”.01 Affecting 3.1 billion people, climate migration touches the lives of nearly half the world’s population.02

swamp-turned-flood state with no viable home insurance options. Between August and October 2024, Florida saw three separate hurricanes make landfall in the Big Bend.05 Thousands of homes were decimated, and millions of people were temporarily displaced.

The lack of mandated “storm surge” and flood insurance coverage in the region forced thousands of homeowners to reach into their own pockets to repair the extensive water damage.06

This is an issue that the public has become more aware of with the rise in frequency and intensity of natural disasters around the US. Climate disasters are no longer once-ina-generation, 100-year events. They are ongoing catastrophes. In the last year alone, climateinduced disasters have left a trail of destruction across the country: - 2025 began • West with the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, which burned for 21 days and destroyed over 20,000 acres with estimated economic losses reaching $50 billion.03, 04 This one incident alone displaced over 200,000 people, with many of them having no tangible way of rebuilding or returning to the homes they lost.

East - Florida • South is increasingly known as the

Fig. 01

Heat Risk to Heat Sensitive Populations was significantly more pronounced in the Midwestern US states during 2024’s June heat wave.

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- North Carolina is one of the more • East at-risk areas in the US when it comes to sea

level rise. With one of the largest estuarine systems on the Atlantic coast, the state is uniquely positioned to experience extreme flooding.07 And it did! When 2024’s hurricane season (feat. Helene) dropped a 100-year flood, it caused “landslides, debris flows, and historic levels of flooding” destroying homes, businesses, hospitals, and entire infrastructural networks (electrical, water, transportation, etc.)”.08

– In the past 40 years, the Midwest • Midwest has seen an uptick in extreme heat days (over

90 degrees Fahrenheit). Many cities across the Midwest experience the urban heat island effect, but they’re not the only geography impacted. The Midwestern agricultural lands produce 65% of the nation’s two largest crops: corn and soybean.10, 11 The rise in extreme heat is already impacting annual crop yields and will continue to do so.

- Texas has been going through • Nationwide a drought for at least the past three years,

and it’s not the only state. We remember California’s five-year drought that lasted from 2011 through 2016, but the fact that it has spread through the Northeast, Southeast, Southwest, Central, Western, Midwestern, Eastern (basically all of America) is not as well known.12 Of the past 120 months (10 years), we’ve spent 86 months in a drought.13

This doesn’t even take into account how much money all these disasters have cost us financially.

Fig. 02

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In the last 10 years, America has experienced 200 weather/climate disaster events that have cost the country $1.4 trillion in losses and damages. In 2024 alone, 26 disaster events cost over $500 billion.14 The financial toll of these climate disaster events is staggering, and it has only continued to grow in the past 45 years.

SCALE OF CLIMATE MIGRATION Climate migration is not a commonly discussed topic – not even within circles of highly educated sustainability professionals. However, communities around the world have shown patterns of adapting to repeating climate-induced disaster events for decades. In 2023, over 7 million people around the world were displaced due to natural disasters.15 Over the last two decades, the steady rise in sea level has forced around 3.2 million people to relocate from major global coastal cities to escape flooding and land subsidence.16 These trends are starting to emerge within the US as well. Despite the lack of federal acknowledgment, studies show that a portion of the US’s internal moving patterns is influenced by climate change. 17 Not only are climate hazards forcing threatened communities to relocate, but they are also influencing migration patterns — prompting new homebuyers to avoid certain regions, even entire states, that are prone to intense climate disasters.

Human migration in response to environmental changes is not a new phenomenon. The widening of a river over time, a freak landslide, the shifts in the water table: these have all been incidents throughout history that have required humans to

In 2024, the United States experienced 27 separate climate disasters that cost $1 billion or more.

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While climate displacement may be gaining attention in America, for many around the globe, fleeing from the impacts of climate change has become routine.

America has been privileged enough to avoid these impacts for decades, but “third world” countries have not been so lucky.

Countries in South Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Central and South America have been feeling climate changeinduced environmental stress for years.18 The top five countries Fig. 03 The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was a drought period that devastated with the highest rates agriculture all throughout the Great Plains. It was an environmental of environmental disaster that forced many to flee from their homes. Here a dust migrations (internal and storm approaches the small town Rolla, Kansas, May 6, 1935. (Image: external) are China, Franklin D. Roosevelt Library Digital Archives, referenced from the Turkiye, the Philippines, National Drought Mitigation Center) Somalia, and Bangladesh.19, 20, 21 These countries face severe move their homes elsewhere in response. The US and frequent climate disasters forcing millions to has experienced countless major disaster events flee their homes, whether due to rising sea levels throughout its history from Category 5 hurricanes swallowing entire villages, desertification wiping to 100-year floods documented as early as the 18th out agricultural land, or extreme weather events century. While environmental hazards are not new, destroying critical infrastructure. Until recently, the increased frequency and intensity of climatethere has been little recognition and awareness of driven events far surpass historical norms, resulting this issue from the global community. in greater losses than we’ve seen before.

Fig. 04

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) conducts an annual report measuring the number of people displaced within their own country. In 2023, nearly 8 million people were displaced within their own countries with the highest numbers being in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Ethiopia.

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WHO IT IMPACTS Climate change, climate issues, and climate scientists have been in and out of the news for my entire lifetime (two short decades) warning folks about what they should or should not do in the face of this ungraspable obstacle. It’s been known for so long now that it’s a casual fact that Florida is constantly flooding and that California is always experiencing some calamity, whether a drought or constant wildfires. In 2023, when the Philadelphia skies had an orange tint to them, it was not a surprise to most East Coast natives, even though it was a clear sign of hazardous air quality.22 The fact of the matter is that potential displacement from climate disasters is not a new concept.

The reason that we’re hearing more about this now is that the financial costs of these climate-induced disasters are starting to impact the average [white] middle-class US citizen Historically, environmental crises only gained national attention once they began impacting the wealthy whites. Think of water crises like Flint, lack of maintenance in public housing, and highway expansion projects that primarily displaced communities of color. That trend remains consistent with this issue as well.

The financial toll of climate disasters is making bigger headlines now, but marginalized communities have been on the frontlines for decades, once again America’s expendable pawns.

As a woman of color in the environmental field, it’s become exhausting to ask the question – “Who does this [insert environmental issue here] impact?” – to always find the same answer. Every hazard begins impacting the same group of people first. Without fail, the folks that are hit first are those with the least capacity to withstand it and are the most unable to access resources and aid.

The low-income, the minorities, the indigenous, the homeless, the disabled, should I go on? This is not a coincidence; it is a pattern. And climate migration is following the same script.

WHAT DO WE DO GOING FORWARD Climate migration isn’t just about fleeing from disaster; it’s also about the response we see from communities, organizations, and our governments. It’s about preparing communities to receive an influx of people and incentivizing developers to build resilience into their projects. It means providing people with the funding to move pre-emptively and deeming raised or canceled insurance premiums as unlawful. With climate migration being such a multi-faceted issue, it’s

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incredibly difficult to identify one all-encompassing solution for impacted communities.

What scientists and advocates have done instead is break climate migration down into different divisions that can receive funding in various stages of the process: – reducing the risk that • Mitigation communities in hazard zones face.

retreat - planning the relocation of • Managed communities away from risk. in place – making modifications to • Adapt allow communities to better withstand risk. management – preparing for and • Disaster responding to disasters.

There are a range of opportunities to aid communities that undergo climate migration.

The biggest funder of climate migration activities in the US is the federal government, and the biggest “climate migration” activity they fund is disaster management. FEMA has a range of hazard mitigation and emergency management grant programs and annually shells out millions to help impacted communities.23 NOAA, USDA, and other major US agencies have various grant opportunities that aim to mitigate the costs of climate disasters in different industries from agricultural to urban infrastructure to small businesses. 24 Local governments and philanthropies offer smaller grant opportunities to try to fill the gaps left behind by the federal government.

Despite the continuous stream of financial resources that go out every year to repair disaster damage, there are many visible gaps in the current system. Remember how there’s no federal acknowledgment or definition of climate migration? Yeah, so what that means is that it’s incredibly hard to direct federal funds toward activities like mitigation, managed retreat, and adapt-in-place. There are no well-defined federal policies that frame climate migration in a way that allows agencies to fund it. For example, community engagement is a commonly funded activity on a federal, state, and local level. Though community engagement can include a number of things, there is a well-established basis for what it means for organizations to carry out community engagement activities. On the other hand, climate migration has no such foundation in federal policy.

There is no established language for this work.

This makes it particularly difficult for state and

local governments, philanthropies, and other organizations to effectively channel funding to the affected communities.

Disaster management funds have been helpful in certain aspects, but they overlook so many things. Disaster management funding provides homeowners with a fraction of the funds needed to rebuild their homes if it’s been destroyed by a climate disaster. But if that home sits in an area that is at high risk of repeated disasters, there is little to no money to pre-emptively move out of an area before disaster strikes. It also means that after disaster strikes, there is no funding to rebuild in a better-located area, only to rebuild in the same place. Households that experience repeated flooding or wildfires or drought and want to move to a better place have to fund that move themselves. There is an endless cycle where those facing the highest risk are given the fewest resources to escape it. The current federal climate seems like it will only widen gaps, leaving more communities stranded and struggling.

Communities that experience climate migration already face so many barriers to access any kind of funding or support on a governmental level.

The fact that these policies are being adopted on a national level signals an administration that is incredibly out of touch with the very real challenges its citizens face.

POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS With a challenge as complex as this, there is no singular solution. Significantly increasing the funding of climate migration is the first step, but directing that money flow to the right people is a close second. Passing policies/laws that recognize the threat of climate change disasters provides organizations and industries with the incentive to start addressing it. Introducing legal protections that prevent insurance companies from unfairly raising premiums, rejecting developments planned along sinking coastlines, and incentivizing municipal governments to introduce resiliency into their building codes are necessary next steps, to name a few. The list can go on and on, and there are many examples of states and locals doing exactly this. For example, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection runs a long-standing, voluntary buyout program that purchases flood-prone properties and provides assistance for property owners to relocate to safer areas.25 Since the Camp Fire of 2018, California has also made significant expansions to its fire-resilient building codes to lower the chances of seeing such a disaster again.26

Some of these proposed solutions may seem extreme, but they’re no more extreme than designing earthquake-proof buildings or valuing fire-safety protocols. We’ve had disasters wreck our societies time and time again, and have developed strategies to prevent that level of damage from happening ever again. We are surrounded by preventative policies that are designed to keep us safe in times of emergencies. Incorporating climate migration language and policies into our daily workings is no different. Allowing our governments, communities, and even ourselves to overlook this will just result in more severe harm in the future.

Addressing climate migration is not about politics – it’s about survival. What we need the most is urgent and coordinated action now. All the data and statistics in the world can only do so much – we need to create relevant and effective policies, map the impacts, and create systems that don’t let any community slip through. The objective facts can help us build the necessary resilient systems to survive the coming climate disaster, if we start immediately. But without immediate action, facts and figures will not save anyone when disaster strikes. When you’re standing over the ashes of your community or the bloated frame of your house there will be no room for calm discussion and passive negotiation. It will be too late for us to negotiate a plan of action with our citizens when their homes are gone and the fingers are pointed at us. Planners must move with intention now or face the irreversible consequences.

ENDNOTES 01

International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Environmental Migration. International Organization for Migration, 2025. https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/ environmental-migration.

02

Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Climate Migration & Equity, NRDC, n.d., https://www.nrdc.org/ stories/climate-migration-equity.

03

NBC News, “California Wildfires: What We Know About Palisades and Eaton Fires in Los Angeles,” NBC News, February 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ california-wildfires-what-we-know-palisades-eaton-losangeles-rcna188239.

04

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE), “Incidents 2025,” accessed March 13, 2025, https:// www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2025.

05

Florida Division of Emergency Management, Florida Division of Emergency Management Highlights Response and Recovery Efforts in 2024, last modified December 26, 2024, https://www.floridadisaster.org/news-media/ news/20241226-florida-division-of-emergencymanagement-highlights-response-and-recovery-effortsin-2024/.

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06

Office of Financial Research. “Property Insurance Market: Challenges and Risks.” Office of Financial Research Blog, December 14, 2023. https://www.financialresearch. gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/12/14/property-insurancemarket/#fn:13.

07

Earth Refuge, A Tale of Two Cities: The Complexity of Climate Migrants in North Carolina, USA, accessed March 6, 2025, https://earthrefuge.org/a-tale-of-two-cities-thecomplexity-of-climate-migrants-in-north-carolina-usa/.

08

National Centers for Environmental Information, U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, accessed March 6, 2025, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ state-summary/US.

09

10

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12

Khan, Manas, Rabin Bhattarai, and Liang Chen. 2024.

“Assessment of Deadly Heat Stress and Extreme Cold Events in the Upper Midwestern United States” Atmosphere 15, no. 5: 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ atmos15050614 USGCRP (2014) Pryor, S. C., D. Scavia, C. Downer, M. Gaden, L. Iverson, R. Nordstrom, J. Patz, and G. P. Robertson, 2014: Ch. 18: Midwest. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 418-440.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, “Corn, Soybeans Accounted for Nearly Half of Crop Cash Receipts in 2023,” accessed March 13, 2025, https:// www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/chartdetail?chartId=76946.

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2025). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/, DOI: 10.25921/stkw-7w73

13

Ibid.

14

National Centers for Environmental Information, U.S. BillionDollar Weather and Climate Disasters, accessed March 6, 2025, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/statesummary/US.

15

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2024, accessed March 13, 2025, https://www.internal-displacement.org/globalreport/grid2024/.

16

First Street Foundation, Climate Abandonment Areas, accessed March 13, 2025, https://firststreet.org/researchlibrary/climate-abandonment-areas.

17

Columbia Magazine, America’s Great Climate Migration Has Begun: Here’s What You Need to Know, last modified March 4, 2025, https://magazine.columbia.edu/article/ americas-great-climate-migration-has-begun-heres-whatyou-need-know.

18

Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Climate Migration & Equity, NRDC, n.d., https://www.nrdc.org/ stories/climate-migration-equity.

19

Migration Data Portal, Environmental Migration, n.d., https://www.migrationdataportal.org/themes/ environmental-migration.

20

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Displacement Data, n.d., https://www.internal-displacement.org/ database/displacement-data/.

21

Migration Policy Institute, Climate Migration 101: An Explainer, last modified September 2020, https://www. migrationpolicy.org/article/climate-migration-101-explainer.

22

WHYY Staff, “Philadelphia Air Quality: Wildfires in Canada Bring Smoke to Region,” WHYY, June 7, 2023, https://whyy. org/live/philadelphia-air-quality-wildfires-canada-smokeupdates/.

23

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), “Grants,” accessed March 13, 2025, https://www.fema.gov/grants.

24

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Individual Assistance and Small Business Assistance, last modified n.d., https://www.fema.gov/assistance/individual/ small-business.

25

New Jersey Department of Community Affairs, “Property Buyouts: Blue Acres Program,” accessed March 13, 2025, https://www.nj.gov/dca/ddrm/programs/ida/property_ ba.shtml.

26

Tony Barboza, “It’s Been 5 Years Since California’s Deadliest Wildfire. Can We Stop It from Happening Again?”

Los Angeles Times, November 8, 2023, https://www. latimes.com/environment/story/2023-11-08/its-been-5years-since-californias-deadliest-wildfire-can-we-stop-itfrom-happening-again.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Revathi V. Machan (she/her) is a second-year Master of City Planning student focusing on Housing, Community, and Economic Development. She studied environmental planning and policy during her undergrad at Rutgers and now uses that foundation to inform her current interests. Revathi’s passions are extensive, ranging from basic streetscape improvements to comprehensive resilience planning, but they all center on one theme: incentivizing sustainability in the policy and planning world. At the moment, she’s exploring the obstacles that climate migrants face and how to connect them to the resources they need. When she’s not lost in a rabbit hole of research, you can find her working on tattoo commissions, trying to fix all her problems with a laser cutter, and exploring new restaurants in the city.

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FEMICIDE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

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My namesake is the butterfly – delicate, born to move freely in the wind. I have always held these airborne mosaics close to me as symbols of transformation, freedom, and lightness.

But in history, butterflies have also carried weight. In my father’s home, the Dominican Republic, they carried revolution. The Mirabal sisters, Patria, Minerva, and María Teresa, were political activists who fought against Rafael Trujillo’s dictatorship.

Their resistance was hidden in plain sight under the name Las Mariposas.

But the weight of their wings, the power of their defiance, was too much for a regime built on violence. They were silenced, their bodies discarded, but their legacy could not be crushed.

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When I think of butterflies now, I do not only think of flight. I think of wings torn apart.

I think of all the women who never got to fly.

The Mirabal sisters were murdered over 60 years ago, and still, despite their sacrifice, violence endures.

It should not take knowing a name to feel the weight of loss.

My aunt’s story speaks to this reality, one that continues to affect those of us still here to recount the memories.

How do we reckon with this history when it is still so present?

Femicide—violence directed at women for being women, is real and ongoing. It continues to thrive in spaces where accountability is absent, where misogyny is left unchecked.

I wanted to bring this to light not as a statistic, but as a current reality.

It is one thing to read off numbers from a chart but another to feel the weight of stories that remain untold and unknown.

This map, “Femicide in the Dominican Republic (2022)”, traces the stolen futures of women whose wings were torn from them.

Visualizing the current state of femicide in the Dominican Republic, the map shows the number of femicides in each province relative to the population of women.

Darker, bolder colors reveal the depth of the crisis—urban centers like Santo Domingo

and Santiago stand out, but the true magnitude of these cases remains untold, with many stories missing or unreported.

It is not just about numbers, but about the stories that deserve more than to be erased.

The revolution the Mirabal sisters sparked continues because the violence persists.

For me, this project is about bearing witness.

It is about making visible what is too often ignored.

This work is urgent. This work is necessary.

And this work will not end until the violence does.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Fanessa E. de la Rosa is a native New Yorker, with heritage hailing from the warm Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

They are a City Planning student, concentrating in Housing, Community, and Economic Development (HCED), with a strong background in Engineering Studies and International Affairs. They are passionate about exploring innovative approaches to collective land ownership, inclusive economic strategies, and community-driven planning to foster sustainable development. Currently, Fanessa is focused on supporting initiatives that empower marginalized communities through collaboration with organizations like the African Cultural Alliance of North America (A.C.A.N.A.). Outside of their academic work, you can find them binging on the newest podcast, bopping to afrobeats, experimenting in the kitchen with focaccia and other recipes, and always ready to chit chat. Above all, they love storytelling—or rather, listening to great stories.

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FOOD-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT Zihang (Henry) Yang PROJECT INTRODUCTION Residents of East London area have the highest probability of experiencing food poverty in London, UK. This project creates an idea of FOD by combining food with TOD. A new food flow is designed to enable rapid transport via existing railway and food distribution through the conversion of inefficiently-used stations. The process will enhance the freshness of the food while meeting the food equity of a variety of groups in the area.

Fig. 01

Socioeconomic Background

HISTORY OF THE EAST LONDON LINE 1843 The world’s first underwater tunnel, the ‘ Thames Tunnel,’ is built for horse-drawn carriages 1869 The Thames Tunnel is transformed for rail use The first section of the East London Line is opened 1884 The East London Line becomes fully operational, its management split between six different companies.

1966 Northern connection suspended, transforming Shoreditch station into the terminus.

Ridership declines.

2010 The East London Line is extended and operated as the London Overground

Fig. 02

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Site Location

FOOD POVERTY ISSUES IN LONDON Many UK citizens face food poverty today on account of insufficient income and following from general economic inequalities.

Following the concept of Transit Oriented Development (TOD), our solution is to create a line dedicated to Food Oriented Development (the FOD Line).

PROJECT GOAL This project transforms the current underground line and stations by converting them into a rapid and efficient means for food production, transportation, and distribution.

Centralizing food processing will dramatically reduce financial and time costs associated with storing and transporting goods. This will guarantee food arrives fresh to consumers.

In addition, small businesses growth encouraged around the station through redevelopment will increase employment opportunities, stabilizing the neighborhood’s income structure and reducing the risk of poverty.

Fig. 03

Fig. 04

Food Poverty Issues in London

Strategies Working System

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SURREY QUAYS Surrey Quays is the first stop on the FOD Line and will be used as a direct wholesale distribution center.

This design connects the Surrey Quays station to the adjacent Tesco shopping mall via a pedestrian bridge, allowing people to travel from the station to the mall to purchase locally sourced groceries.

Along the bridge, small vendors operating out of kiosks will provide an outlet for fresh food for the public.

Fig. 05

Future Scenario for Surrey Quays ROTHERHITHE Rotherhithe, located next to the Brunel Tunnel museum, will retain its original shield cylindrical machine structures from 1860s.

Converting these historic structures into a beer fermentation tank and grain storage silos, this station will become the site of a new 24/7 Beer Garden.

Receiving fresh harvested wheat along the line, brewers at Rotherhithe station will bake and brew throughout the day to serve alcoholic beverages at night.

This design centers food, which satisfies the most basic human need, to increase the surrounding community’s quality of life and spur new connections.

Fig. 06

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Future Scenario for Rotherhithe

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WAPPING Situated closest to the River Thames, Wapping station is realized as a hub for fishing and seafood along the docks.

This design focuses on the shoreside where the current station is already located. By creating riverfront space with boardwalk, barges, steps, it promotes neighborhood recreation, including fishing and other social activities.

The restaurant’s ideal location overlooking the waterfront, also allows it to source the freshest aquatic products to serve resident-customers.

Fig. 07

Future Scenario for Wapping

Fig. 08

Future Scenario for Shadwell

SHADWELL Shadwell station sits in front of the London Cycle Superhighway, a prominent thoroughfare for cyclists, making it a node along bikers’ paths as well as encouraging biking as the dominant mode of transit through this site as designed.

Surrounded by residential buildings, there is little room for new construction at Shadwell.

Accordingly, this design focus shifts up to the rooftops. Incorporating urban farming increases the availability of local organic food, alleviating food insecurity and promoting community engagement through shared, communal spaces.

The farm’s design takes three forms: planting fields, pitched-roof planters and greenhouses.

Planting plots are connected by bike lanes, which form a leisure viewing corridor and allow for access to activity. The two ends of the path connect the station’s two exits.

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WHITECHAPEL Whitechapel is home to the highest density of Bangladeshi immigrants in the surrounding area.

Due to low incomes, this community experiences high levels of food insecurity while maintaining unique growing and cooking techniques from their culture. This design incorporates the functions of an outdoor street food market and indoor shared food community all atop Whitechapel Station’s rooftop.

The market sits outside the existing food stalls scattered around the station, inviting community residents to sell products, spices and homemade food. This creates a clustering of food vendors and provides more equal job opportunities.

The community has a built-in shared kitchen and food distribution hub, which allows for neighborhood grocery pick-ups. Also, the raw products transported by the railway will be processed in bulk into finished food products, which will be also transported out.

Fig. 09

Future Scenario for Whitechapel

SHOREDITCH Shoreditch’s passenger line was rerouted to an elevated station leaving the original, ground-level terminus station available for adaptive re-use. This station will bring together all raw and processed products along the FOD line, transforming the district into a food hub and supplier of local businesses.

The station will also remain a hub for vehicles to facilitate the transfer of goods. Food products will be unloaded from the train, sorted, and then reloaded and transported by van. Efficient transfer ensures that the food is delivered to neighborhood institutions and members of the community in the freshest condition.

Fig. 10

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Future Scenario for Shoreditch

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Fig. 11

Future Scenario for Shoreditch

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Zihang (Henry) Yang is a first-year Master of City Planning student concentrating in Smart Cities. He is interested in multi-disciplinary urban planning approaches that integrate geospatial data analysis, public space and infrastructure design, and community regeneration.

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REfshaleøen REgenerate REtain REimagine

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COPENHAGEN STUDIO STUDIO PREMISE PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE OF A HISTORIC WATERFRONT The twelve students who undertook the challenges of this studio engaged with the complexities of Refshaleøen in Copenhagen.

Among other aspects, they considered: 1. The historic development of Refshaleøen and its relation to the growth of the broader city of Copenhagen.

2. Refshaleøen’s environmental conditions and vulnerability to climate change.

3. The current social and cultural life of the district, including the types of uses and activities it hosts, as well as its evolving character.

4. The role the area plays in the social and economic life of Copenhagen’s residents, visitors, and tourists.

5. The range of existing plans and ongoing debates about the site’s future, including considerations for the future of the wasterwater plant on site, transit infrastructure, and the proposal for the Lynetteholm extension into the harbor.

Fig. 01

Based upon this analysis, the students developed proposals for the future transformation of the peninsula that grapple with the social, cultural, environmental, and physical aspects of this unique urban context. They sought to strategically respond to the City’s current housing development pressures while preserving aspects of Refshaleøen’s unique sense of place.

PLANNING CONTEXT Situated north of Copenhagen, where the harbor meets the sea, Refshaleøen began as the island of Lynetten, which served as part of the City’s coastal defense. Over decades of successive landfilling, it was connected to the island of Amager, becoming the peninsula that is known as today. Following harbor dredging, it became an attractive port, and in 1871, it become home to the Burmeister and Wain shipyard. It remained in operation there for over 100 years, and at its height, it was one of Denmark’s largest employers.

Following the closure of the shipyard, Refshaleøen has been controlled by Ejendomsselskabet Refshaleøen A/S, a property management entity representing four pension funds, and By & Havn.

Lynetteholm, City of Copenhagen

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REFSHALEØEN TODAY The unique landscape of Refshaleøen, dotted with abandoned industrial structures and former docks, has taken on a new post-industrial function. The old shipyards are now home for a range of creative, cultural, and entertainment uses, including Copenhagen Contemporary and a number of restaurants and cafes. Its large open spaces host a range musical festivals and other events throughout the year. Additionally, Refshaleøen is the home to a large water treatment plant that cleans a significant part of greater Copenhagen’s wastewater.

In 2009, the City of Copenhagen’s municipal plan designated Refshaleøen as a prospective area for future urban development to address some of the housing pressures that face the city. Environmental studies have assumed a potential development capacity of up to 1.1 million square meters within the approximately 80-hectare area. This has led to a recent design competition for Refshaleøen, as well as a future design and planning competition to be undertaken in 2025, administered by Ejendomsselskabet Refshaleøen.

Fig. 03

Wastewater Treatment Plant

Fig. 04

Reffen Food Market

LYNETTEHOLM Adjacent to Refshaleøen, the Municipality of Copenhagen has also approved and begun work in 2021 on an approximately 275-hectare land reclamation project called Lynetteholm. This new landmass will be an extension of Refshaleøen and act in part as coastal defense against storm surge and sea level rise. This land-filled area could potentially support residential development for an additional 15,000 people. In addition, there are preliminary plans to extend metro service through Refshaleøen to Lynetteholm.

Fig. 02

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Burmeister & Wain A/S shipyard Configuration

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Fig. 05

“Copenhell” Concert

FRAMEWORKS VISIONING AND INITIAL URBAN DESIGN CONCEPTS Following the initial research and analysis, began to develop three draft framework approaches for the transformation of Refshaleøen. The students were tasked to continually think between the scale of the immediate area of Refshaleøen and the context of broader Copenhagen. Collectively, the studio developed three unique framework plans, illustrating a range of approaches and deploying a variety of system strategies. Three teams took different approaches to issues of historic and cultural preservation, urban form and structure, and natural landscape and public open space. The frameworks illustrate a range of attitudes about key

planning variables such as the existing wastewater treatment plant and the on-going debate about its potential re-location, as well as Lynetteholm, and the relation of its planning to the future of Refshaleøen.

After visiting Copenhagen and meeting with local architects, planners, landscape architects, engineers, city planning officials, and the shipyard’s current property management entity, the students came back to Philadelphia with new insights and energy to refine and finalize their frameworks.

FRAMEWORK 01 KORSVEJ / CROSSROAD Our design is driven by our desire to preserve.

We aim to maintain the site’s current character, including its use, typology, and identity. We are building upon the existing fabric of the site, both physical and historical, to highlight the korsvej, or crossroad, that emerges. This crossroad is the nexus of all activity on the site, from current art and cultural pursuits to future residential activity.

FRAMEWORK 02 SHIPYARD REIMAGINED: REFSHALEØEN Our framework for Refshaleøen centers on creating a well-integrated urban environment with a focus on accessibility, diversity, and sustainability. The main commercial street runs from the city’s entrance all the way to the inner harbor, branching into two commercial corridors that will eventually extend into Lynetteholm. This layout ensures a continuous flow of activity and connectivity throughout the area.

FRAMEWORK 03 FRILUFTSLIV At the heart of this proposal is the Scandinavian concept of Friluftsliv, a philosophy that emphasizes a deep connection to nature and encourages outdoor experiences as an integral part of daily life. Rooted in Nordic culture, Friluftsliv is about fostering a lifestyle where nature is not separate from urban life, but woven into it. It promotes well-being by encouraging people to engage with the environment, whether through recreational activities, peaceful walks, or simply spending time outdoors.

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Fig. 06

Scenes from Copenhagen

Fig. 07

Scenes from Copenhagen

Fig. 08

Scenes from Copenhagen

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PROJECT EXPLORATION THE URBAN DESIGN POTENTIAL OF THE FRAMEWORK CONCEPTS Building off the emerging frameworks, the students identified key questions or issues to be explored and further developed within the context of their framework plans.

Fig. 11

Project 03 Weathering the Storm: Cloudbust and Coastal Resilience Design for Refshaleøen

Integrating resiliency and blue-green infrastructure strategies with public space, multiuse districts that have the capacity to integrate and mediate Refshaleøen’s culture of live performance with new residential communities, and public space typologies that can both accommodate a variety of day-to-day and seasonal social activities as well as support the integration of nature within the everyday life of the city.

Fig. 12

Project 04 A Cohesive and Vibrant Corridor that Bridges People and Nature with Community Activities Saces and Thriving Green and Blue Features

Fig. 09

Project 01 Multiuse, Event-oriented Neighborhood Strategic Plan

Fig. 13

Project 05 Copenhagen Public Space Typological Study

Fig. 10

Project 02 Developing a Land-Use and Transit Nexus

Through this exercise, the students made a jump in scale and specificity to dive into a key aspect of the plan, pushing forward on the urban design potential defined by the frameworks.

Through this exercise, the studio collectively explored and illustrated the potential of their framework approaches. Each of the five teams identified a topic of focus for their study and the scope of the project. The focus of these projects included streetscapes and mobility corridors,

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STUDIO TEAM

• Xinya Liu • Caroline Lu • Isabel Mulay • Regy Septian • Xiaxin Tang • Ashley Zuo

• Khulan Enkhbold • Vanessa Diaz • Elaina Geiger • Ziyi Guo • Yuan Ji • Jia Yang Kwok

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THE RISING TIDE OF RISK

Coastal Zoning and the Future of New Jersey Julia Nema Every year, millions of people flock to New Jersey’s shores seeking sun, surf, and the unique charm of its coastal communities. In 2023, over 120 million visitors enjoyed the state’s coastline.01 Cape May alone drew 11.3 million visitors in 2022, making it the most popular tourist destination along New Jersey’s shoreline.02 Other shore towns, like Long Beach Island (LBI), see their populations surge to nearly 200,000 each summer as tourists and seasonal residents arrive in droves.03 These numbers may seem surprising, but for locals, they’re hardly unexpected. For those from New Jersey, Southern Pennsylvania, Delaware, and parts of New York, summers are defined by ‘heading down the shore’ and spending long days at the beach. The tradition of city dwellers embarking on two-hour drives—or longer—to reach the Atlantic Ocean dates back to the 1920s when the first coastal resorts drew crowds to New Jersey’s shores.

In the 1900s, much of this coastal region was undeveloped, with “nothing but grass and sedge.”04 Located about 60 miles east of Philadelphia, it was the perfect retreat for city dwellers seeking tranquility—like Morris Shapiro. Shapiro, who would go on to become a prominent land developer in the early 1900s, transformed parts of what would later become LBI into a sought-after vacation destination. However, Shapiro was not the only developer in New Jersey, and LBI was not the only beach experiencing rapid development. According to Gilbert M. Gaul, author of The Geography of Risk: Between 1940 and 1970, developers dredged and filled tens of thousands of acres of wetlands along the back bays in New Jersey, an area equal to one-third of all the coastal wetlands. In Ocean County alone, more than 400 communities and 13,000 lagoons were built along Barnegat Bay. More than 100,000 houses were stacked on or near the water.05 New Jersey was not the only state to experience such an intense real estate boom along its coast.

Coastal communities in Florida, South Carolina, and Texas all “gutted and filled thousands of acres of salt marsh” with development.06 Down in Florida, developers, entrepreneurs, and even con men were “hawking beachfront property as the next American dream.”07 As if veiled by sublime ignorance, Shapiro and other developers saw coastal areas as prime vacation spots but overlooked the dangers of settling so close to the ocean.

The escalating intensity of storms in the Atlantic Ocean, and the resulting destruction fueled by climate change, have made coastal development increasingly dangerous and costly. The state of New Jersey has experienced over “70 tropical cyclone

Fig. 01

The “New Jerseyization” of the Shoreline.

Source: Hakai Magazine

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events” between 1856 and 2011.08, 09 Despite only one hurricane making landfall in 1903, “six to seven tropical storms have struck New Jersey every 20 years” since the 1960s.10,11 In 2012, Superstorm Sandy devastated the region, causing an estimated $29.4 billion in damages, devastating “approximately 72,000 homes and businesses.”12 Rebuilding efforts from Sandy and other catastrophes have surged along the coastline, often without adequate or strict zoning measures. Since then, thousands of homes have been newly built or reconstructed across New Jersey, often in flood-prone areas that remain highly vulnerable to future storms.13 However, this “build, destroy, rebuild” pattern reflects a broader trend seen across many U.S. coastal towns where development has been prioritized over environmental sustainability and long-term risk mitigation.

This brings us to the topic of zoning. Zoning is “the process of delineating coastal areas into land and sea zones, designating permitted, prohibited, and conditional uses to better manage coastal and surrounding areas to reduce vulnerability.”14 While it is not a cure-all for flood events, zoning still plays a critical role in reducing exposure to risk by restricting development in flood-prone areas, promoting land uses that preserve natural floodplains, and creating buffer zones to absorb floodwaters. Many states have zoning regulations like the Coastal Area Facility Review Act (CAFRA) in place to protect natural resources and manage coastal development.15,16 Despite these regulations, enforcement often lacks consistency, and developers frequently exploit loopholes to continue building in vulnerable areas.17 These gaps in policy and practice mean that more people are likely to be impacted by hurricanes and severe storms in the future, underscoring the urgent need for more stringent zoning measures. Tightening regulations on high-risk development helps preserve natural flood defenses and also builds long-term resilience in the face of escalating climate challenges.

Fig. 02

Hurricane Sandy Brought Four Feet of Storm Surge into Homes and Stores in Towns like Sea-Bright, NJ. Source: Liz Roll/FEMA

Fig. 03

Damage from Hurricane Sandy.

Source: Mark Olsen

RISKY BUSINESS Despite the past devastation by hurricanes and tropical storms, and the associated risks of future events, the development of coastal towns have continued without interruption. For example, after Superstorm Sandy, “641 existing structures were raised in [the town of ] Brick, and 1,809 homes were either reconstructed or newly built. About 90 to 95 percent of those are in the floodplain.”18 Around the same time, Long Beach Township saw a 67 percent rise in development. Of the homes

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damaged along the shore, most were “Cape Cods and duplexes that were built in the fifties, sixties, and early seventies.”19 These multifamily homes “that were ripped down were replaced by singlefamily homes.”20 The federal flood insurance program, particularly through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), has played a key role in enabling the reconstruction of properties in high-risk coastal areas.21,22 By subsidizing rebuilding without fully accounting for the rising costs of flood risks, “the program encouraged development in vulnerable flood zones.” 23 The federal taxpayer funding that this program receives has been described as a “stealth entitlement” benefiting mostly the wealthy, as insurance subsidies underprice risk and promote development that prioritizes economic gain over long-term resilience.24 This trend was further entrenched by the passage of the Disaster Relief Act of 1950, which established a permanent disaster relief fund leading to the expansion of disaster assistance over time.25 As of 2022, FEMA has awarded “more than $2.5 billion in public assistance and grants to restore damaged facilities and increase resiliency in New Jersey” alone.26 As so, it becomes unsurprising that beach towns can rebuild in the manner that they do, with most also able to grow in size.

Rising property values and the increasing share of homes used seasonally have made New Jersey’s shore towns increasingly exclusive, pricing out working-class residents. Additionally, FEMA’s flood insurance program continues to subsidize the rebuilding of luxury properties in flood-prone areas, allowing affluent homeowners to repeatedly rebuild, even in the face of escalating climate risks.

According to Stan Riggs, a coastal geologist from North Carolina, as long as “the rich can afford to build seawalls and widen beaches, that’s not much of an adaptation. It’s climate gentrification.”27 This system places much of the financial burden on taxpayers while enabling continued development in high-risk zones. Since zoning and related police power is left to the state, zoning’s effectiveness can vary, leading to uneven protection and enforcement.

MISMANAGED MANAGEMENT Over the years, discussions about halting coastal development have surfaced, but few efforts have achieved significant success. In 1972, the Coastal Zone Management Act authorized the National Coastal Zone Management Program (NCZMP) which “comprehensively addresses the nation’s coastal issues through a voluntary partnership

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between the federal government and [thirty-four] coastal and Great Lakes states and territories.”28 Within this framework, New Jersey enforced its coastal policies through CAFRA, a state-specific rule passed in 1973 that “established a mandate for coastal planning [and] a state permitting approval process for development in coastal areas.”29 CAFRA intended to regulate coastal development so that “developers could build smarter, safer communities while building along the waterways and oceanfront.”30 In actuality, it focused on “large developments with 25 or more units,” leaving smaller projects exempt from state oversight.31 This loophole allowed developers to bypass restrictions by proposing smaller, piecemeal projects that have led to unchecked growth along the coastline.

Additionally, CAFRA did not challenge the authority of local governments, allowing coastal towns to retain control over zoning and landuse decisions.32 As of August 2024, New Jersey’s latest proposal for the Resilient Environments and Landscapes (REAL) Rule—a comprehensive framework addressing climate risks—explicitly states that new coastal management policies will not include mandatory “no-build zones.”33,34 Where development is proposed within flood-prone areas, the new rule proposal would require, to the extent practicable, that buildings and infrastructure are constructed above flood levels that incorporate sea-level rise standards.35 Resultantly, New Jersey’s coastal management framework has arguably left the coastline vulnerable to severe storm damage.36 LEGAL BATTLES Stop the Beach Renourishment v. Florida Department of Environmental Protection (2010) Stop the Beach Renourishment v. Florida Department of Environmental Protection (2010) further explored the limits of state authority under police power.37,38 Passed in 1965, the Act addressed erosion by allowing beach restoration and setting a fixed “30-year erosion control line” as the boundary between public and private land replacing the shifting high-water line.39 Properties owners argued that this eliminated their rights to ‘accretions’— land naturally added by gradual deposits—and to maintain direct contact with the water, amounting to a regulatory taking. Initially, the Florida Court of Appeals sided with the property owners, but the Florida Supreme Court reversed the former decision, ruling that the Act did not violate property rights because the land in question was stateowned under established doctrines.

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In an 8-to-0 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the Florida Supreme Court’s decision. With Justice Scalia delivering the opinion, the Court ruled that the Florida’s BSPA did not constitute a taking because property owners could not prove that they had superior rights to newly exposed land or contact with the water. Scalia stated, “there could be no showing” of such superior rights in this case. 40 Scalia drew from Florida law principles, noting that “[Florida], as owner of submerged land adjacent to beachfront property, has the right to fill that land” and that “the exposure of land previously submerged belongs to the state even if it interrupts the beachfront property owners’ contact with the water.”41 The decision reinforced the state’s authority to manage coastal resources under its police power and clarified the limits of regulatory takings in the context of public trust lands.

Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council (1992) The constitutionality of police power has been challenged in cases like Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council (1992). In this case, David Lucas purchased beachfront property in South Carolina in 1986 to build two homes.42 However, after the passage of the Beachfront Management Act in 1988—aimed at combating beach erosion and flooding risks—Lucas was barred from erecting permanent structures on his property.43 Lucas filed suit against the SCCC, arguing that the Act constituted a taking under the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments, which required just compensation.44 South Carolina contended that the ban was intended to prevent public harm from frequent flooding and owed Lucas nothing.45 In a 6-to-2 decision, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Lucas, determining that the Beachfront Management Act rendered his property valueless, thus constituting a regulatory taking.46,47 The Court asserted that “when the owner of real property has been called upon to sacrifice all economically beneficial uses in the name of the common good, he has suffered a taking,” which necessitates just compensation.48 The ruling underscored that regulations depriving property of all “economically viable” use require compensation.49 This case highlights the need for carefully crafted zoning laws that mitigate risks like coastal erosion without imposing uncompensated burdens on property owners.

Dolan v City of Tigard (1994) Later in 1994, Dolan v. City of Tigard came before the Supreme Court to further challenge the limits of police power in land-use regulation. In this

Fig. 04

The Army Corps of Engineers Oversees Progress for Beach Nourishment on LBI. Source: Rosanna Arias/FEMA

case, the plaintiff applied for a permit to expand her hardware store and pave her parking lot.50 The City of Tigard approved the permit contingent on the fact that the plaintiff dedicate land for a Fanno Creek greenway to reduce flooding and a pedestrian/bike path to ease downtown traffic.51 The City argued that these measures were needed to reduce flooding risks and alleviate traffic congestion caused by the expanded store.

However, Dolan asserted that the City’s stated conditions amounted to an uncompensated taking of her private property in violation of the Fifth Amendment. 52 In a 5-to-4 decision, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Dolan, holding that the City’s conditions “were not sufficiently related to its stated governmental interests to constitute valid land-use regulations,” and violated the Takings Clause.53 The same Court established the “rough proportionality” test, requiring that “[Tigard] must make some sort

of individualized determination that the required dedication is related both in nature and extent to the impact of the proposed development.”54 While the City demonstrated a legitimate interest in flood prevention and traffic mitigation, it failed to prove that the stated public greenway and bike path requirements were proportionate to the expected impact of Dolan’s store expansion. The Dolan ruling underscores that while local governments can regulate land use promote public welfare, they must also ensure that such regulations respect constitutional property rights.

Limitations There are limitations to coastal zoning, and there are legal examples that challenge zoning and the state’s police power rather than support it. There are also plenty of arguable downsides to zoning, such as that it requires property owners to “relinquish some of their individual property

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freedoms for the common good,” often limiting development potential and increasing construction costs. 55 Proper enforcement of zoning demands sustained community investment, which is not always realized and can lead to inconsistent application. 56 Shifting coastlines, influenced by natural processes and human activity, further complicate the reliability of zoning as a land-use tool. Additionally, because statutes like 43 U.S. Code § 1301 explain that states have the right to authorize coastal zoning, it is understood that the voluntary nature of these regulations often leads to insufficient enforcement.57 As in the case of New Jersey, “towns have practically absolute discretion.

They can zone for what they want.”58 Thus, while zoning reflects states’ constitutional police power, its effectiveness depends on consistent enforcement and local commitment to long-term public and environmental priorities.

it is an urgent necessity in the face of climate change. While property rights should always be considered, the welfare of the broader public— especially in flood-prone and climate-vulnerable regions—must take precedence. The Constitution supports this duty, and the cases discussed reaffirm that states like New Jersey are well within their rights to use zoning to protect both private property and the public good. Without proper coastal zoning, the future of New Jersey’s beaches may soon get caught in the rising tide of risk.

ENDNOTES 01

Emel Crawford, “New Jersey Tourism Surpasses Record Pre-Pandemic Levels With Increased Visitors and Expenditure in 2023,” VisitNJ, May 16, 2024, visitnj. org/press/new-jersey-tourism-surpasses-record-prepandemic-levels-increased-visitors-and-expenditure.

02

Ilana Keller, “11.3 Million People Visited New Jersey’s Top Tourist Spot in 2022,” Asbury Park Press, September 22, 2024, https://www.app.com/story/news/2024/09/22/ cape-may-top-tourist-spot-in-new-jersey-wealth-ofgeeks-2022/75279183007.

03

Nathan Colmer, “About Long Beach Island New Jersey,” BuyLBI, 2020, buylbi.com/about-long-beach-island/aboutlbi-nj.html.

04

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 33.

NEW JERSEY NEEDS BETTER COASTAL ZONING NOW When Morris Shapiro set out to develop Long Beach Island (LBI) in 1920, he envisioned creating a premier destination unlike anything local residents had yet to experience—a place where the land meets the sea, with homes nestled against the coastline offering uninterrupted views of the Atlantic Ocean. Today, LBI stands as one of New Jersey’s most beloved beach towns, attracting visitors from near and far. However, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, it also became one of the hardest-hit towns in New Jersey, suffering significant financial losses that deeply affected the lives of many residents.

States, as sovereign entities, have a fundamental responsibility to protect their citizens from natural disasters, such as the growing threat of coastal flooding and erosion exacerbated by climate change. The U.S. Constitution grants states significant authority to pass laws under their police power to safeguard public health, safety, and welfare. Zoning therefore plays a crucial role in fulfilling this responsibility.

Ultimately, by adopting stringent, climateresponsive zoning codes along its coastline, New Jersey can take proactive measures to protect its residents and the environment, along with reducing financial losses in the face of the next storm. Most importantly, New Jersey can set a precedent for other states to follow in strengthening coastal resilience all over the United States. Empowering states to enact mandatory zoning policies is not just a constitutional right—

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05

Ibid., 34.

06

Ibid., 35.

07

Ibid.

08

Juan Carlos Castillo, “Storm Surges and Hurricanes in New Jersey: Everything You Need to Know,” Asbury Park Press, September 22, 2023, www.app.com/story/news/ local/2023/09/21/nj-weather-hurricane-season-tropicalstrom-nws-noaa/70910195007.

09

New Jersey Office of Emergency Management, “Hurricane Mitigation Strategies,” New Jersey State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2019, 2019, https://www.nj.gov/njoem/mitigation/ pdf/2019/mit2019_section5-8_Hurricane.pdf.

10

Juan Carlos Castillo, “Storm Surges and Hurricanes in New Jersey: Everything You Need to Know,” Asbury Park Press, September 22, 2023, www.app.com/story/news/ local/2023/09/21/nj-weather-hurricane-season-tropicalstrom-nws-noaa/70910195007.

11

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Historical Hurricane Tracks: New Jersey, USA,” Coastal Management, accessed December 7, 2024, https:// coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=5.37/40.111/74.714&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJOZ XcgSmVyc2V5LCBVU0EiLCJzZWFyY2hUeXBlIj oiZ2VvY29kZWQiLCJvc21JRCI6IjIyNDk1MSIsIm NhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiLCJINCIsIkgzIiwiSDIiLCJIMSIsIl RTIiwiVEQiLCJFVCJdLCJ5ZWFycyI6W10s.

12

Brent Johnson, “Hurricane Sandy Caused $29.4B in Damage to N.J., Christie Administration Estimates,” NJ.com True New Jersey, November 23, 2012, www.nj.com/news/2012/11/ hurricane_sandy_causes_294b_to.html.

13

Judy Smestad-Nunn, “ Thousands of Homes Elevated Since Superstorm Sandy,” Jersey Shore Online, October 29, 2021, www.jerseyshoreonline.com/brick/thousands-of-homeselevated-since-superstorm-sandy.

35

New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, “Resilient Environments and Landscapes,” New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, August 2024, dep. nj.gov/njreal/facts.

14

United Nations. “Coastal Zoning.” UN Climate Technology Centre and Network, www.ctc-n.org/technologies/coastalzoning.

36

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 71.

15

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 71

37

Stop the Beach Renourishment v. Florida Department of Environmental Protection, 560 U.S. 702 (2010), Nexis Uni.

16

Will Parker, “50 Years of Protecting the Shore: What’s Next for CAFRA?” New Jersey State Policy Lab, 2023, https:// policylab.rutgers.edu/50-years-of-protecting-the-shorewhats-next-for-cafra/

38

Stop the Beach Renourishment v. Florida Department of Environmental Protection, 560 U.S. 702 (2010), Nexis Uni.

39

Ruppert, Thomas K., Jessica F. Wilkinson, and Heather E. Ross. “Eroding Long-Term Prospects for Florida’s Beaches: Florida’s Coastal Construction Control Line Program.” Sea Grant Law and Policy Journal 1, no. 1 (June 2008): 65–97. www.flseagrant.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ErodingLong-Term-Prospects-for-Floridas-Beaches.pdf., 80.

40

“Stop the Beach Renourishment, Inc. v. Florida Department of Environmental Protection.” (2010) Oyez. www.oyez.org/ cases/2009/08-1151.

41

Ibid.

42

Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council, 505 U.S. 1003 (1992). https://advance-lexis-com.proxy.library.upenn.edu/ api/document?collection=cases&id=urn%3acontentItem% 3a3S65-KDH0-003B-R207-00000-00&context=1519360&id entityprofileid=VGBCK351717. Accessed 7 Dec. 2024.

17

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 71

18

Judy Smestad-Nunn, “ Thousands of Homes Elevated Since Superstorm Sandy,” Jersey Shore Online, October 29, 2021, www.jerseyshoreonline.com/brick/thousands-of-homeselevated-since-superstorm-sandy.

19

Andrew S. Lewis and Michael Sol Warren, “A Decade Later, Shore Builds Back Bigger,” NJ Spotlight News, 27 Oct. 2022, www.njspotlightnews.org/2022/10/superstorm-sandyjersey-shore-smaller-houses-were-replaced-wealthierbigger-long-beach-island-hoboken-woodbridge-moneyisland-storm-infrastructure.

20

Ibid.

21

Cornelia Dean, “Congress Has Ruined America’s Beaches,” Issues in Science and Technology, June 6, 2022, issues.org/ national-flood-insurance-has-ruined-americas-beaches.

22

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 130.

23

Ibid., 138.

24

Ibid., 115.

25

Ibid., 116.

26

Ken Schlager, “10 Years After Hurricane Sandy: What’s Next for the Jersey Shore?” New Jersey Monthly, 28 Oct. 2022, njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-shore/10-years-afterhurricane-sandy-whats-next-for-the-jersey-shore.

27

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 229

28

NOAA Office for Coastal Management ADS Group, NOAA Office for Coastal Management | The National Coastal Zone Management Program, coast.noaa.gov/czm.

29

Will Parker, “50 Years of Protecting the Shore: What’s Next for CAFRA?” New Jersey State Policy Lab, 2023, https:// policylab.rutgers.edu/50-years-of-protecting-the-shorewhats-next-for-cafra/

43

Ibid.

44

Ibid.

45

Bill of Rights Institute, “Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Commission - Case Background,” Bill of Rights Institute, accessed February 25, 2025, billofrightsinstitute.org/ activities/lucas-v-south-carolina-coastal-commissioncase-background.

46

Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council, 505 U.S. 1003 (1992). https://advance-lexis-com.proxy.library.upenn.edu/ api/document?collection=cases&id=urn%3acontentItem% 3a3S65-KDH0-003B-R207-00000-00&context=1519360&id entityprofileid=VGBCK351717. Accessed 7 Dec. 2024.

47

“Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council.” Oyez. https:// www.oyez.org/cases/1991/91-453

48

Ibid.

49

Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council, 505 U.S. 1003 (1992). https://advance-lexis-com.proxy.library.upenn.edu/ api/document?collection=cases&id=urn%3acontentItem% 3a3S65-KDH0-003B-R207-00000-00&context=1519360&id entityprofileid=VGBCK351717. Accessed 7 Dec. 2024.

50

Dolan v. City of Tigard, 512 U.S. 374 (1994). Accessed February 25, 2025. https://advance-lexis-com.proxy.library. upenn.edu/api/document?collection=cases&id=urn%3aco ntentItem%3a3S65-JV00-003B-R52D-00000-00&context= 1519360&identityprofileid=VGBCK351717.

30

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 71.

31

Ibid.

32

Ibid.

51

Ibid.

33

New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, “Resilient Environments and Landscapes,” New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, August 2024, dep. nj.gov/njreal/facts.

52

Cornell Law School. “Dolan v. City of Tigard, 512 U.S. 687 (1994).” Legal Information Institute. www.law.cornell.edu/ supct/html/93-518.ZS.html.

34

New Jersey State League of Municipalities, “NJDEP Resilient Environment and Landscapes (REAL),” New Jersey State League of Municipalities, www.njlm.org/1339/ NJDEP-Resilient-Environment-and-Landscap.

53

American Bar Association. “ Takings Is a Great Pain for Store Owner (Dolan v. City of Tigard).” American Bar Association, 15 June 2018. www.americanbar.org/groups/ law_students/resources/on-demand/quimbee-dolan-vcity-of-tigard.

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54

55

Dolan v. City of Tigard, 512 U.S. 374, 114 S. Ct. 2309, 129 L. Ed. 2d 304, 1994 U.S. LEXIS 4826, 62 U.S.L.W. 4576, 38 ERC (BNA) 1769, 94 Cal. Daily Op. Service 4747, 94 Daily Journal DAR 8803, 24 ELR 21083, 8 Fla. L. Weekly Fed. S 331 (Supreme Court of the United States, June 24, 1994). https://advance-lexis-com.proxy.library.upenn.edu/api/do cument?collection=cases&id=urn%3acontentItem%3a 3S65-JV00-003B-R52D-00000-00&context=1519360&ident ityprofileid=VGBCK351717. Accessed December 7, 2024.

56

Ibid.

57

Cornell Law School. “43 U.S. Code § 1301.” Legal Information Institute. Accessed February 25, 2025. www.law.cornell.edu/ uscode/text/43/1301.

58

Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk (New York: Sarah Crichton Books, 2018), 71.

“Zoning Ordinance Introduction.” RCSandA. Accessed February 25, 2025. www.rcsanda.com/Experience/ Pros&Cons.htm.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Julia Nema is a Northeast Philadelphia native who, after receiving her bachelor’s degree in political science from Villanova University and serving as an English Teaching Assistant in the Czech Republic shortly after, is now in her second year of Penn’s Master’s in City and Regional Planning program. Julia’s concentration is in Land Use and Environmental Planning, and she is most passionate about transit-oriented development, climateinformed zoning, and flood-resilient communities that prioritize creativity, equity, and sustainability. In her free time, Julia likes to cycle, read, and make pierogi.

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SOCIAL MEDIA’S ROLE IN PLANNING Lahy Amman There’s near constant discussion of the challenges that come with social media, the technology surrounding it, and its ability to capture our attention. Although people’s experiences vary, social media is fundamentally designed to commodify our attention. It provides us with endless content to keep us engaged, regardless of what that content is doing to us mentally, making it more of a challenge to lead healthy and fulfilling lives. The technology has evolved so quickly that it tests our ability to keep up with individual practices and social habits. We as planners can play a role in addressing this dilemma, most directly by creating attractive public spaces and engaging experiences that make offline life a more compelling and accessible alternative to social media.

The ubiquity of social media in our lives puts us all in the position of having to reckon with what part this technology plays in our lives. The ability to instantly communicate and share content with anyone, from our closest friends and family to complete strangers, brings us closer together in many meaningful ways. I personally cherish the ability to quickly connect with far-flung family members and friends. My relationship with, for example, my grandparents halfway across the world would be very different were we living in the world of a generation or two ago.

Although social media can be perfectly healthy as a complement for in-person contact with others, it’s a poor replacement. A 2023 advisory from former US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy called attention to the “growing concerns about the effects of social media on youth mental health.”01 He highlighted that teens ages 12-15 who spend more than three hours a day on social media face double the risk of experiencing poor mental health outcomes like depression and anxiety.02 Although the research on social media’s effects on teen mental health is more established, there’s also growing evidence that it affects adults in similar ways. A multidisciplinary team of researchers at Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital studying results from surveys conducted during the pandemic found associations between social media use and depression for adults over 35, even for those not experiencing depression at the start of the study. 03 As social media usage among adults

of all ages grows, these challenges are likely to grow more widespread in the coming years.

Technological change in general doesn’t just give us new options, it shapes and alters our lives in profound ways, positive and negative. Studying the long-term effects of social media usage takes years out of necessity, so a lot of the findings on specific mechanisms through which social media might negatively affect mental health are still forthcoming. But one potential explanation is with the way the apps are designed to capture our attention and keep us engaged. It’s worth briefly exploring the incentives of social media companies to better understand this. Advertising is a primary source of revenue for social media companies, which fundamentally means that their profit is a function of how much time users spend on their apps and interact with ads. The more successful a company becomes at capturing our attention and making us want to spend as much time on the app as possible, the more money they make.

Why is this a bad thing? In our limited free time, fulfilling activities that promote our mental health like spending time in-person with friends and family, exercising and playing sports, or picking up a new skill, typically require some kind of investment. If not monetary, these things take time, effort, and some amount of focus to be rewarding.

But social media promises entertaining content and their accompanying dopamine hits essentially for free. I don’t need to block out a chunk of time and travel somewhere to spend time on Instagram or TikTok the way I do to go see friends and family in a different city. It may be that by making it easier to access entertaining content from the comfort of home, or wherever we happen to be, it makes it that much harder to devote the time and attention to engage in fulfilling activities that give our lives purpose.

When we’re faced with the choice between spending time on social media and on offline activities, the technology is designed to make us keep choosing social media. But that choice doesn’t look the same for everyone. The more attractive your offline life is, the more likely you are to want to spend time there instead. This often reflects how well-resourced your community is. If

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you’re a high school student with access to topnotch sports facilities and an array of exciting clubs and social opportunities, it may be easy to choose healthier ways to spend time than scrolling through TikTok during your hours after school. If it feels unsafe to walk to your neighborhood park and the facilities there are dilapidated anyway, staying home on your phone is the rational choice—the quick dopamine hits are just cherries on top. As much as the Internet was once hailed as a “great equalizer,” its impact on people and communities is decidedly inequitable.

There is real evidence to suggest that the quality of the built environment can make a difference.

Recent Pew polling data found that Black and Hispanic teens—precisely the groups with the least access to high-quality parks and public spaces— are significantly more likely than white teens to use the Internet and apps like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube almost constantly. 28 percent of Black teens and 25 percent of Hispanic teens reported using TikTok almost constantly; just 8 percent of white teens said the same.04 It’s easy to see why: just look at plenty of communities of color in the Philadelphia region where hostile infrastructure, a lack of investment, and drug use or crime may make accessing even nearby parks unsafe or uncomfortable. Each of these factors serve as barriers to in-person contact in our region’s public spaces and make spending time online lower-risk and more appealing.

Fig. 01

On warm days, Rittenhouse Square is one of the busiest places in Philadelphia.

Source: Daederot, Wikimedia Commons

Fig. 02

Despite large-scale assets like the Please Touch Museum, roadways and uneven maintenance hinder accessibility.

Source: Jack Boucher, Library of Congress

Access to green space is not just a nice-tohave, though; it’s an essential component of a healthy community. It’s associated with widespread improvements in mental and physical health. A 2019 review by University of Chicago psychologist Marc Berman found that green spaces near schools promote cognitive development in children and that adults living in public housing in neighborhoods with more green spaces showed better attentional functioning.05 Experimental studies indicate that being exposed to natural environments improves working memory, cognitive flexibility, and attentional control. 06 In its effects on our attention specifically and on our mental health in general, contact with nature seems to help restore some of the very cognitive functions that social media impairs.07 It’s not just that time spent in nature can be a nice alternative to time spent on social media, it seems to specifically help restore some of what social media takes away from us.

Of course, there have been countless calls for the creation of a more visually and mentally appealing built environment in our cities. These plans often include goals to reconnect us to nature

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or create spaces for socializing and gathering. Too often, we’ve sacrificed such goals on the altar of efficiency and functionality. The Delaware River waterfront is one of the most prominent natural features we have in Philadelphia. It’s the reason the city was founded here in the first place, but we’ve transformed it into a series of industrial parks, highways, and big box stores. Our narrow rowhouse blocks used to function as play spaces for kids and social venues for adults, but they’re now more often used as drive-through streets and parking lots. In the name of function and efficiency, we’ve built a region where public spaces where we can gather together or experience nature are precious few and are not distributed equally.

On the flip side, we know through countless real-world examples that access to high-quality parks and open space are an integral part of communities’ quality of life. They serve as public gathering spaces and can be venues for social integration. On a warm sunny day, Rittenhouse Square and Dilworth Park are some of the most popular places in Philadelphia. They are also some of the most socially integrated despite their location in high-income areas, precisely because they’re high-quality gathering spaces that are accessible for people throughout the city due to their central locations. There’s a lot of concern about the decline of third spaces, but high-quality parks in many ways buck that trend. They’re more popular than ever, and they show that when people have a practical, attractive alternative to online life, they take advantage of it. We just need to build and maintain them, and we need to do so in all communities, not just the most well-off ones.

Despite their centrality in a lot of the problems we face, our local governments don’t always follow through in the form of funding and staffing to support high-quality park systems. Our region in particular struggles in this regard. Despite having incredible assets like Fairmount Park and the Wissahickon, Philadelphia’s per capita city spending on parks and public spaces lags behind that of peer cities: $62 per person compared to a national median of $106, according to the 2024 ParkScore report.08 And it shows in the degraded or unsafe conditions in various public spaces throughout Philadelphia. The Centennial District in West Fairmount Park is home to incredible assets like the Philadelphia Zoo, the Please Touch Museum, and the Mann Center, among others.

But a series of planning efforts since 2005 have identified several challenges stemming from a lack of investment, including “limited direct transit access, unsafe streets and pedestrian access between institutions, lack of wayfinding, [and]

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ongoing shortage of maintenance and operations funds.”09 All of these issues are in a park area with some of the city’s most prominent attractions; neighborhood parks and playgrounds, particularly in low-income communities, don’t receive the same attention and often fare much worse.

In a region with high poverty and limited public funding, maintenance is a particular challenge.

In Camden, capital funding from the county and state have revitalized green spaces across the city. On the site of the old Harrison Avenue landfill, Cramer Hill Waterfront Park opened in 2021 as a new crown jewel for the city: 62 acres of lush greenery including a fishing plaza, free kayaking during the summer, hiking and biking trails, and impressive views of the Delaware. In many ways, Camden is a model for green space accessibility even in a high-poverty community, with 97% of city residents living in walking distance of a park.10 But in a city that lacks even the funding and capacity to operate a dedicated Parks Department—the Public Works Department does its best with the resources it has—keeping such assets up is a tall order. A survey of 500 stakeholders conducted during the city’s parks planning efforts found that a majority of respondents thought the city’s parks had poor equipment and fields.11 That dilapidated infrastructure is likely a reason why these community assets are underused: a Trust for Public Land report found that only 70% of residents use the city’s parks at least once a month, fewer than average for urban areas nationally, despite their widespread accessibility.12 Investing in building parks and public spaces is necessary but not sufficient: they need to be attractive, safe, inviting spaces to spend time in order for people to benefit from them, and that requires not only one-off capital investments but also a long-term commitment to maintenance and programming from civic leaders and planners.

If we can make and maintain that commitment, access to attractive public spaces and programming could help rebalance the role of social media in our lives by inviting us to reconnect with nature and each other. As long as we still live in a world dominated by social media and smartphones, our individual efforts to maintain a healthy balance by spending time offline can only take us so far, particularly since the technology is designed to prevent us from exercising that agency.

Among the many imperatives we have as planners, one should be to create built environments that are compelling and fulfilling enough to be an alternative to online life. And it helps that this work is already being done. I’m inspired, for example, by the work of the Reimagining the Civic Commons Source: 2024 ParkServe reports, Trust for Public Land.

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initiative, which emerged right here in Philadelphia around a decade ago and has grown into an alliance of cities across the country transforming how they design, manage, and program their public spaces. I feel optimistic that these and other models for creating attractive public spaces will be a key component of the way cities revitalize and reinvent themselves in the coming years.

Social media and technology in general continue to advance to create more realistic and immersive experiences. Advances in AI and virtual reality technology may transform the landscape of our lives in the coming years. But our ingrained, human needs to connect with nature and each other are unchanging. Unfortunately, the cities and regions we’ve developed often give us few places to do that, and access to those spaces is inequitable.

We inherit a built environment shaped by the decisions made by past generations of planners and policymakers, which unfortunately often prioritized functional economic infrastructure like highways, offices, and industrial parks over the equally essential social infrastructure of parks and public space. Our generation of planners can be a part of rebalancing that. We can ensure that all communities have access to high-quality public space, making the decision to engage in fulfilling and meaningful offline activities a more accessible and compelling one for the communities we serve.

ENDNOTES 01

Social Media and Youth Mental Health: The U.S. Surgeon General’s advisory § (2023).

02

Ibid.

03

Erin O’Donnell, “Social Media Use and Adult Depression,” Harvard Magazine, 2022, https://www.harvardmagazine. com/2022/02/right-now-social-media-adult-depression.

04

Michelle Faverio and Olivia Sidoti, rep., Pew Research Center, December 12, 2024, https://www.pewresearch. org/internet/2024/12/12/teens-social-media-andtechnology-2024/.

05

Kirsten Weir, “Nurtured by Nature,” Monitor on Psychology, April 1, 2020, https://www.apa.org/monitor/2020/04/ nurtured-nature#:~:text=From%20a%20stroll%20 through%20a,not%20physically%20immersed%20in%20 nature.%E2%80%9D.

06

Ibid.

07

Social Media and Youth Mental Health: The U.S. Surgeon General’s advisory § (2023).

08

“ParkServe® for Philadelphia, PA - TPL,” Trust for Public Land, March 5, 2024, https://www.tpl.org/city/ philadelphia-pennsylvania.

09

“Fairmount Park Conservancy Centennial District,” Knowledge Finder, May 6, 2022, https://knowledge.uli.org/ en/videos/2022/fairmount-park-conservancy-centennialdistrict-advisory-services-panel?_gl=1%2A1ppd30e%2A_ gcl_au%2AMjUxMzY0MjMzLjE3NDAyNzI0MDA.%2A_ ga%2AMTczNjM1Mjk5OC4xNzQwMjcyMzk5%2A_ ga_68JJQP7N7N%2AMTc0MDI 3MjM5OS4xLjEuMTc0MDI3MjM5OS42MC4wLjA.

10

Ximena Conde, “Camden Wants All Residents to Have Easy Park Access by 2050,” WHYY, December 27, 2020, https:// whyy.org/articles/covid-19-showed-the-importance-ofgreen-spaces-camden-wants-all-residents-to-have-easypark-access-by-2050/.

11

Conde, 2020.

12

Ibid.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Lahy Amman is a second-year Master of City Planning student concentrating in Housing, Community, and Economic Development. He is passionate about the importance of a built environment that meets people’s everyday needs and that promotes mental and physical health. He believes that the walkable urbanism handed down to us from past generations is a valuable asset on that front, even where disinvestment has taken its toll, and is passionate about ways that targeted investment can make those spaces accessible and inviting once again.

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A Detroit’s decline began with white flight after L G the 1967 Uprising, while Black Detroit’s population E surged from 30% to 80%.

The election of R Coleman Young the first Black mayor in 1974 Warrenas E marked a peak for the BlackD emiddle class, but troIt D etroI t f uture s A policies and the 2008 f uture s Great neoliberal Recession A L L pushed many to the suburbs, leading to massive G G E foreclosure rates and a populationEdrop from 1.8 R million toR just over 600,000 by 2013.

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G G E E The Strategic Neighborhood Fund R R (SNF),

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As the city revitalizes, it faces questions about f uture s A L equity: Is this a comeback for those who stayed, G those who left, or new E residents? Over the past R decade, Detroit has invested $1 billion in affordable Warren E housing, stabilized home values, and supported minority-owned businesses,D eresulting in reduced troIt D etroI t f uture s A f uture s A crime rates and an improved bond rating.

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Focusing on the East Warren/Cadieux area, which has seen successful implementation of a framework plan, the SNF hasn’t yet addressed the iconic but vacant Alger Theater or the surrounding lots. This semester, the Detroit Futures studio concentrated on these issues as plans for a third round of SNF funding emerged, promising $40 million in investments to further boost Detroit’s recovery. The studio broke out into four groups that formulated different approaches to redevelop the Alger Theater and surrounding lots.

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GROUP 1 1. Housing: Offer diverse and affordable family-friendly housing options to increase density.

Millennials and Gen-Z increasingly favor dense, walkable communities, prompting multi-family development in Downtown Detroit. To retain these households as they start families, East WarrenCadieux is poised to become a family destination due to its existing family-oriented amenities.

However, the area faces challenges such as aging housing, poor educational outcomes, and limited green space.

2. Food & Culture: Establish a vibrant commercial corridor with a mixed-use music venue in the historic Alger Theater.

3. Recreation: Increase green space to provide recreational access for youth and support local retail.

The proposal seeks to enhance East WarrenCadieux’s quality of life through four key focus areas:

Fig. 03

4. Youth Programming: Expand capacity for youth-serving nonprofits and enhance the Jefferson Library.

Proposed Renovation to Alger Theater

FRANKFORT ST

5 min walk radius

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Development 106 Education

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The Vision: Building a

GROUP 2 The plan includes three phases: converting the Alger Theater into a music venue with various commercial uses, establishing the Hotel Alger to celebrate the city’s music history, and adding affordable residential units financed through LIHTC. The project will feature 38 units (19 onebedrooms and 19 two-bedrooms) designed as attached twins, with vacant lots repurposed for green space and stormwater management.

Fig. 05

Renovated Alger Theater Outdoor Patio Perspective Fig. 06

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Proposed Hotel Alger

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GROUP 3

Detroit, despite facing significant challenges over the years, is experiencing a revival, supported by initiatives like the Strategic Neighborhood Fund (SNF), which has facilitated over $250 million in investment. The East Warren neighborhood exemplifies the need for revitalization, as residents advocate for the preservation of the historic Alger Theater while addressing vacant residential lots.

With SNF 3.0 set for approval in Fall 2024, our proposal aims to foster economic growth and community stability, centered on the vision: “East Warren/Cadieux builds upon the spirit of the Detroit that never left, through stabilized housing options, climate resiliency, economic opportunity, public art, and varied transportation.”

Fig. 09

Group 3 Site Plan

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Renovated Alger Theater Floorplan Proposal

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Fig. 10

Group 4 Site Plan

GROUP 4

The Cultivation Corridor Development Plan focuses on enhancing infrastructure in East Warren/Cadieux, addressing challenges like low graduation rates and vacant properties.

This plan aims to create welcoming spaces for all ages and foster community growth. The site plan features areas for various initiatives, such as a theater, home repair workshops, rental unit development, and profitable farming, including flowers and mushrooms for beautification and income.

Fig. 11

Alger Theater (2024)

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G E R Warren E

Studio Team

• Lahy Amman • Elam Boockvar-Klein • Spencer Castle • Ada N. Chan • Iris Chen • Amy Cunniff • Sarah Curry • Sravya Dandamudi • Allie Hayes • Lucie Powers • Von Rogers • Kate Southerland

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Panorama Vol. 33

SAVING PAKISTAN’S GRID Adil Belgaumi ENERGY TRANSITION CHALLENGES IN PAKISTAN: THE NEED FOR SMART INFRASTRUCTURE As the world increasingly grapples with the dangers of climate change and the need to decarbonize our energy systems, Pakistan stands as an important case study of the challenges and pitfalls that poorer economies can face. Like many nations in the global south, the nation has struggled to balance the imperative to develop quickly with the need to plan infrastructure systems carefully and methodically in the face of a rapidly changing global energy paradigm. As a result of the mismanagement of its grid, Pakistan’s energy sector faces a financial crisis as its debt has ballooned and energy demand has unexpectedly fallen despite continued rapid urban growth.

Fig. 01

THE CURRENT CRISIS Energy has long been a major issue for Pakistan and its economy. Despite having a rapidly growing population (ranking 5th globally), Pakistan has a primarily agrarian economy and incredibly limited fossil fuel reserves. As a result, the nation historically pursued a largely green energy portfolio with many of its needs being met by hydroelectric and nuclear power. However, the need to meet increasing electricity demands as the nation has urbanized and industrialized has pushed the government to contract more coal and oil-based power plants to meet the shortfall.

Pakistan’s modern reliance on fossil fuel for its energy (60% of energy generated in 2021)is at the core of its current economic hardships.01 Pakistan has long been a net importer of fuel, but

An aerial view of buildings and homes in Karachi during a nationwide power blackout. Sustained lights come from diesel or gas generators.

Source: AFP (2017)

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it now comprises 33% of the value of merchandise imports, contributing considerably to its 19.4 billion USD trade deficit in 2023.02 Pakistan’s energy system has now entered an untenable financial situation with a ballooning circular debt that rose from 450 billion PKR in FY 2013 to 2.6 trillion PKR in FY 2024 as its currency continues to lose value.03, 04 As a result of its rush to meet energy demand the Pakistani government entered numerous unfavorable state-backed power purchase agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Since as early as 1994, Pakistan has entered deals with IPPs at unfavorable terms to spur the rapid development of thermal power plants, accelerating in the 2010s as the nation faced power shortfalls as urbanization rapidly increased.

These IPP contracts guarantee equity returns ranging from 15 percent up to 27 percent in more recent projects pegged to the US dollar.05 It achieves this by guaranteeing that the government will purchase all power produced by these plants and pay their so called “capacity payments,” which amount to all their fixed costs related to operating and financing. While this succeeded in incentivizing energy producers to enter the market, it has resulted in an oversupply of energy capacity to the grid for which the government is on the hook to pay.

Pakistani consumers and the economy and has finally resulted in a reduction in overall energy demand in FY 2024, falling over 10%.06 Installed capacity in 2024 is now at 45,000 MW while peak demand sits at just 30,000 MW in the summer and falls significantly in the winter.

Despite the energy system’s high capacity, load shedding is still a common phenomenon, with rural areas facing 8-10 hours and urban areas facing 6 hours of load shedding on average. This is a government policy called “economic loadshedding” where the government balances grid load by cutting service more frequently to areas where distribution losses are highest due to grid inefficiencies and power theft. The government has defended this practice as necessary to prevent circular debt from increasing further.07 The government has begun to more carefully consider its IPP contracts, terminating eleven this year with local power producers for inefficient thermal plants opened in the 1990s and 2000s.08,09 These contract terminations are costly, requiring

This helped Pakistan cut load shedding significantly from 2016 to 2019, but with the rise of fuel prices in 2020 and 2021, it has become increasingly expensive for Pakistan to supply its thermal plants with sufficient quantities of coal, oil and natural gas. The simultaneous economic recession wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic and grid damage caused by natural disasters has additionally set back grid maintenance plans and decreased grid efficiency.

To keep its circular debt from spiraling, the government has had to pass these rising costs on to consumers. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority has approved energy tariff increases, which have seen prices rise 155% from 2021 to 2024. This has put an immense burden on average Fig. 02

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A resident climbs on a pole to adjust an illegal power connection from the transmission line on the outskirts of Karachi.

Source: DAWN.com (2013)

upfront payments to settle outstanding obligations.

The government is also making efforts to reduce the guaranteed equity returns on other existing contracts by reducing capacity payments and by renegotiating them from take-or-pay agreements to take-and-pay agreements. While these initiatives are necessary, they will affect Pakistan’s standing with potential future investors and are much less likely to find success with Chinese deals developed under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, a part of the Belt and Road Initiative.

A PRIVATIZED GREEN ENERGY TRANSITION One might wonder how energy demand has fallen so significantly in Pakistan despite its continued population and urban growth.

Interestingly, trade data shows that Pakistan has simultaneously seen an explosion in photovoltaic solar power module imports from China in the past year, estimated at 15,000 MW of generation capacity costing a combined 2.1 billion USD. These imports have not gone into grid-serving power plants but appear to have gone directly to serve the agriculture and industry sectors and large residential consumers. A simultaneous decrease in the cost of large battery storage has permitted these consumers to rely considerably less on the grid for their energy.

This trend poses a serious risk to the economic viability of Pakistan’s electricity grid. As it loses its largest, high revenue customers while having to keep up similar capacity and maintenance costs for the grid, the burden of meeting these costs falls on fewer, more low-income households and industries, necessitating even higher tariffs. This trend seriously threatens the viability of Pakistan’s state-owned energy grid, essentially privatizing the benefits of the green energy transition for the wealthy and large industries.

Pakistan is an excellent candidate for solar energy system adoption, boasting a high practical PV power potential (over 4.5 kWh/kWp) with low seasonal variation in solar power potential due to its low latitude. However, Pakistan also lacks the necessary modern grid infrastructure necessary to transition to a grid dominated by variable renewable energy sources. To stabilize the national economy and advance the adoption of clean energy across the nation, the Pakistan Department of Energy needs to attract its lost consumers back to the grid as “prosumers”, but it needs to get its house in order first. Considerable investment will also be needed for maintenance and upgrading before these potential power producers can be connected to the energy grid.

THE PATH FORWARD The Government of Pakistan should learn from its past blunders and take decisive action to capitalize on the massive private-sector capital investments that have been made in solar energy systems and focus on drawing these producers back on to the national grid. The Government of Pakistan is making some effective steps to cut its circular debt and should continue efforts to refinance its debt obligations into forms that are more manageable. However, the Department of Energy is still developing new power purchasing agreements with thermal plant IPPs and pushing forward costly state-run hydro-electric and nuclear projects, despite existing over-capacity of the grid and the state’s inability to supply existing thermal plants with sufficient fuel. Pakistan should evaluate all committed projects on their feasibility and the degree to which they would require additional fuel imports.

The Government of Pakistan should prioritize refinancing its debt obligations and renegotiating its existing power purchasing agreements to the degree that it is able to. The rupee’s ongoing depreciation against the dollar is the key reason Pakistan’s position is untenable so renegotiating its debt into domestic currencies is key to reduce its circular debt. This could take the form of the policy proposed by University of Cambridge Professor Kamal Munir and Fulbright Scholar Salman Khalid, to create a special purpose vehicle aimed at refinancing IPP debt.10 Their proposed Pakistan Power Sector Financing Fund would be backed by government guarantees and aim to refinance IPP debt and equity in local currency at current government local currency borrowing rates in exchange for a one-time payment. This would provide IPP shareholders some short-term liquidity that can be used for new investments while reducing the governments long-run debt obligations given the Pakistani Rupee’s considerable depreciation over time.11 While the costs of refinancing may be high in the short run, the change to local currency would pay dividends in the long run.

Grid stability relies on a consistent balance of supply and demand to remain within a tight range of the grid’s AC frequency (50Hz in Pakistan).

In addition, the complexity of the grid and the immense distance between power sources and power draws, add considerable complexity to the science of balancing supply and demand across the entire country. Since solar and wind power have variable output that does not necessarily match peak demand, the Pakistani grid would

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require major energy storage capabilities to capture excess energy when supply exceeds demand and distribute it when demand exceeds supply. This would further require advanced grid monitoring systems to balance load as supply and demand constantly fluctuate.

Grid-scale energy storage needs to cover three timescales: fast response, less than one day storage and multi-day to seasonal storage. The technologies presently available in the market have trade-offs between their response time, cost, implementable scale, and operational lifespan that make them suitable for one of these timescales more than the others. Pakistan’s existing hydroelectric dams can serve as a form of medium to long terms storage. By ramping down their output when other renewable energy sources are meeting demand, they can effectively store energy until it is needed. In addition, Pakistan can pursue pumped hydroelectric storage in manmade reservoirs for a similar purpose. Pakistan could also pursue a variety of emerging technologies such as compressed air or liquid air storage or chemical storage methods like hydrogen, ammonia or hydrocarbon production. These options would

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be more expensive but could give Pakistani companies and institutions valuable expertise with cutting-edge technologies.

For a grid with larger amounts of variable renewable energy sources, fast-response time storage methods become more necessary to improve grid stability. In this area, the two costeffective and proven technologies Pakistan can pursue are lithium-ion batteries and flywheel storage systems. The decreased price of battery cells has already seen significant adoption of lithium-ion batteries amongst private solar adopters,however, these batteries face some limitations that may hamper grid-scale adoption.13 Lithium-ion batteries are limited by their comparatively short life spans, have some safety risks when implemented at scale, and may be in short supply in the future due to their reliance on scarce resources. In contrast, flywheel storage systems have seen some adoption in parts of Europe and North America and rely less heavily on scarce materials but are still an emerging, relatively expensive technology. Due to their lower energy density, flywheels are mainly appropriate for grid stabilization, not long-term storage.

Overview of Optimal Timescales Across Energy Storage Technologies.

Source: Schmidt, Oliver, and Iain Staffell (2023)12

Panorama Vol. 33

In the short term, Pakistan should place its first priority on grid upgrading and digitization. As domestic energy demand increases and distributed energy generation also become more common in urban settings, digital technologies become increasingly critical for balancing supply and demand and directing investment to fine-tune grid infrastructure. Smart meters and digitized grid infrastructure can provide much more timely data on demand and can also help distribution companies identify the sources of distribution losses.14 In the medium term, the government should invest in grid scale storage initiatives to stabilize supply from variable renewable sources. The government has already expressed interest in developing pumped hydro-based storage using Chinese expertise through the CPEC Energy Project Cooperation Expert Panel but should also consider battery-based and flywheelbased projects, which can be deployed closer to generation and distribution sites such as urban areas.15 It is even theoretically possible to adapt defunct thermal power plant turbines into flywheel energy storage systems, giving these major infrastructure pieces a second life, however this technology is not ready for market yet.

While private capital is less forthcoming for grid infrastructure projects than for generation projects, the Pakistani government can make it more attractive by bundling it with generation and storage projects in special purpose vehicles.

Establishing standards and policies early would create a transparent regulatory system, making the role of the private sector clear and attracting investment. Grid upgrading and storage projects also meet the criteria for green or climate bonds, however, given Pakistan’s financial position, bonds might have to floated in PKR to keep government debt manageable.16

Once the Pakistani energy sector’s circular debt is brought into line and energy tariffs are lowered to more competitive levels, the government can begin trying to attract the major lost consumers back to the national energy marketplace. It should begin to offer competitive power purchasing agreements to these major industries to access their generation capacity on a net billing basis.

Pakistan currently uses a net metering system with its domestic power prosumers, a system by which prosumer’s energy bill is offset by the energy they generate based on the sale price of power. This is unsustainable for larger scale adoption as it does not account for the cost of grid maintenance which the prosumers still benefit from. A net billing system, where the utility purchases power from prosumers at the wholesale price of power, would be more appropriate for industry-scale energy prosumers. This practice would even permit expansion of operation for industrial actors that have developed valuable expertise in solar power generation.

The Pakistani power sector has faced tumultuous changes in the past decade that have jeopardized the grid and placed the government in a precarious financial position, however, the proposed actions have the greatest potential to handle the current situation as it stands and capitalize on the private sectors considerable organic solar adoption.

Pakistan has great potential to become a leader in clean energy adoption if the Government of Pakistan makes necessary strides to adopt new technologies to meet the increasingly complex demands of energy distribution in the twenty first century.

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ENDNOTES 01

National Transmission and Despatch Company, Pakistan, “Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2021-30,” May 2021, https://fpcci.org.pk/wp-content/ uploads/2021/11/IGCEP-2021.pdf.

08

Fawad Yousafzai, “Govt to Terminate Contracts with 6 More IPPs,” The Nation, December 14, 2024, https://www.nation. com.pk/14-Dec-2024/govt-to-terminate-contracts-with-6more-ipps.

02

World Bank Open Data, “Fuel Imports (% of Merchandise Imports) - Pakistan,” World Bank Open Data, accessed December 14, 2024, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN?locations=PK&type=points; World Bank Open Data, “Net Trade in Goods (BoP, Current US$) Pakistan,” World Bank Open Data, accessed December 14, 2024, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.GSR.MRCH. CD?end=2023&locations=PK&start=2000&type=points& view=chart&year=2023.

09

Umair Jamal, “Pakistan Renegotiates Costly Contracts With 5 Private Power Producers,” October 11, 2024, https:// thediplomat.com/2024/10/pakistan-renegotiates-costlycontracts-with-5-private-power-producers/.

10

Kamal Munir and Salman Khalid, “ To Fix the Economy, Start with the Power Sector.”

11

Keith Robert Pullen, “ The Role of Flywheel Energy Storage in Decarbonised Electrical Power Systems,” The Renewable Energy Institute (blog), December 13, 2018, https://www. renewableinstitute.org/flywheel-energy-storage/.

12

Renewables First, “ The Great Solar Rush in Pakistan.”

13

“Unlocking Smart Grid Opportunities in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies – Analysis,” IEA, June 6, 2023, https://www.iea.org/reports/unlocking-smart-gridopportunities-in-emerging-markets-and-developingeconomies.

14

Ministry of Energy (Power Division), Government of Pakistan, “Year Book 2022-23,” accessed December 15, 2024, https://power.gov.pk/SiteImage/Publication/ YearBook2022-23.pdf.

15

Climate Bonds Initiative, “Grids and Storage Criteria Brochure, Climate Bonds Standard 2021,” 2021, https:// www.climatebonds.net/files/files/CBI-Grids_Storage_ Criteria-02B.pdf.

03

Asia Development Bank, “Circular Debt Impact on Power Sector Investment Supplementary Linked Document,” March 2021, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ linked-documents/53165-002-ld-03.pdf.

04

Tehmina Asad and Afia Malik, “Pakistan’s Energy Mess,” DAWN.COM, July 15, 2024, sec. business, https://www. dawn.com/news/1845916.

05

Kamal Munir and Salman Khalid, “ To Fix the Economy, Start with the Power Sector,” DAWN.COM, March 24, 2019, https://www.dawn.com/news/1471526.

06

Renewables First, “ The Great Solar Rush in Pakistan,” October 29, 2024, https://uploads.renewablesfirst.org/ The_Great_Solar_Rush_in_Pakistan_38157451a3.pdf.

07

Staff Report, “‘Economic Loadshedding’ to Continue in Areas with High-Loss Feeders,” The Standard, May 31, 2024, https://thestandard.com.pk/economic-loadsheddingto-continue-in-areas-with-high-loss-feeders/.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Adil Belgaumi developed an interest urban issues and spatial development growing up in Karachi, Pakistan, and observing its haphazard, inequitable urban growth. He graduated from Swarthmore College in 2020 focusing on economics, policy and international development. Between college and beginning his degree at UPenn, Adil worked as a data analyst in the Philadelphia non-profit space. As a planner, Adil hopes to work in sustainable and equitable global development as a land use and sustainable infrastructure planner. He will graduate with a Masters of City Planning in May 2025.

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EARTHQUAKER

A Cloud-Based Interactive Dashboard of Global Seismic Activities Junyi Yang, Emily Zhou

US Earthquakes since Apr 2024 (Top View)

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High

Magnitude

World's Earthquakes since Apr 2024

Low

US Earthquakes since Apr 2024 (Aerial View)

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Google Cloud Workflow START

Check 30 days interval

Determine current status

If within 30 days

END

If more than 30 days

Parallel steps Get earthquake data

Get continent data

Extract earthquake data from USGS API and store it in cloud storage

Extract continent data from ArcGIS Hub and store it in cloud storage

Add ID, latitude, longitude, and altitude to data properties

Change from geojson to jsonl and store it in cloud storage

Change from geojson to jsonl, name it with current date, and store it in cloud storage

Load continent data from cloud storage to BigQuery

South America Oceania North America Asia Europe

Load all the jsonl files from cloud storage to BigQuery

Join earthquake data with continent data

Magnitude of 4 Magnitude of 5 Magnitude of 6 Magnitude of 7 Africa

Dynamic chart that shows the top 200 earthquakes since Apr 2024.

Query the top 200 largest earthquakes (exclude earthquakes at sea)

Parallel steps Export all earthquakes from BigQuery to cloud storage

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Export top 200 earthquakes from BigQuery to cloud storage

This dashboard displays historic seismic activity and provides comprehensive insights into earthquakes worldwide. The hexagons on the map are colored by the largest earthquake magnitude inside and the height represents their significance, a proxy for the maximum MMI, felt reports, and estimated impact of an earthquake. The charts on the right show the distribution of earthquakes by continent and by magnitude for the top 200 earthquakes with the highest magnitude.

Data source: USGS, ArcGIS Hub Published: May 2024

ABOUT THE AUTHORS. Junyi Yang is a third-year student at the University of Pennsylvania pursuing a dual degree in Master of Landscape Architecture and Master of City Planning with a concentration in Smart Cities. With a B.S. in Molecular Environmental Biology and a B.A. in Landscape Architecture from UC Berkeley, she has a professional background in design, planning, and data analysis for research and design firms. She believes in the potential of multi-discipline collaborations and is always prepared to learn new things.

Her current work and interests range from front-end web development, urban spatial analytics, and parametric modeling to urban design, planning, and landscape design.

Emily Zhou (she/her) is a second-year MCP student concentrating in Smart Cities. Her research experience centers on designing and developing geospatial research methods, with particular focuses on uncertainty analyses, spatial decision support systems, and spatial optimizations. She is deeply interested in refining geospatial research design and validating existing methodologies to address complex planning challenges that lies at the intersection of public health, climate change, and social justice, etc.

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IMAGINING A STORMWATER TAX FOR BARRE, VT Miranda Ayres On July 10th, 2023 and 2024, Vermont was devastated from the returns of the Great Flood.

Vermont is no stranger to flooding events, most notably in 1927, 1993, and 2011. The two floods occurring on the same exact day, one year apart, exposed the state as a climate peril, rather than a climate haven. As part of the Vermont Climate Resiliency Studio, I immersed myself in studying the aftermath of the floods, both on the built and cultural environments. The state suffered from over $2 billion in damages to property and infrastructure.01 Hundreds of homes and businesses were destroyed, physical connectors like roads and bridges wiped out, and dozens of lives were lost.

On top of climate change threats, Vermont suffers from one of the most extreme housing crises in the country, exacerbating extreme weather events.

For towns like Barre, rebuilding and recovering is a monumental challenge. The municipal government is stretched thin, barely able to handle daily administrative necessities to keep the City alive. As a student in urban design, my first instinct when creating a resiliency plan was to think about public spaces that can double as flood mitigation in the form of water storage tanks, rooted trees,

Fig. 01

and wetland restorations. However, none of this is possible without prioritizing public infrastructure repair and the need for significant funds that the state just doesn’t have. Despite FEMA emergency relief, the state desperately needs help rebuilding.

But what does rebuilding look like in places that will continue to see this type of destruction in the future?

A SELF-SUSTAINING UTILITY FUND Barre suffered most of its flooding in its historic downtown, aligned to the Steven’s Branch portion of the Winooski River. Historic Development patterns meant that most of the city’s industry in granite exports and commercial business is still concentrated along the river. While once a strategic location for commerce has now become a hotspot for flood destruction.02 In our time studying the physical conditions of downtown, my teammates and I discovered an excessive amount of parking lots and unused railway infrastructure that increased flood speeds and created a bathtub effect, trapping water in the downtown.

Inundation Map

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Barre suffered most of its flooding in its historic downtown, aligned to the Steven’s Branch portion of the Winooski River. Historic Development patterns meant that most of the city’s industry in granite exports and commercial business is still concentrated along the river. While once a strategic location for commerce has now become a hotspot for flood destruction. In our time studying the physical conditions of downtown, my teammates and I discovered an excessive amount of parking lots and unused railway infrastructure that increased flood speeds and created a bathtub effect, trapping water in the downtown.

In order to pay for flood damages, and to pay for future-proofing infrastructure and housing from future occurrences, the City needs a stable source of funding without reliance on unstable and unpromised federal funds.03 South Burlington, Vermont, implemented a Stormwater Utility Tax in 2005—a strong case study in progressive flood adaptation. With a successful and equitable approach, a utility tax can help cities retrofit their existing infrastructure development to handle future flooding, and support resiliency and economic development.

HOW DOES IT WORK? The stormwater utility tax in South Burlington is based on a system of Equitable Residential Units (ERUs). ERUs are a standard measurement used to determine the amount of impervious surface on a property, including driveways, roofs, parking lots, and anything that contributes to runoff. Instead of implementing a blanket tax on all properties, this model “rewards” properties with less impervious material by charging a lower rate.

In South Burlington, all single-family properties pay the same fee of $7.68 per month. The average square foot of a home in the town is 2,700 and this decision was used to determine the size of 1 ERU: 1 ERU = 2,700 square feet of property.

Multifamily units pay even less: Duplexes pay $3.84 per month and Triplexes pay $2.56 per month. All commercial, industrial, institutional, and transportation parcels pay based on the amount of impervious surface. For example, a parking lot that is 27,000 square feet will pay 10 ERUs per month, or $76.80. Property owners

Fig. 02

Land Use Map

Fig. 03

Enterprise Alley Parking Lot

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also have the opportunity to lower their monthly fee by adopting Stormwater Treatment Practices (STPs), such as rain barrel and cistern installation, pervious pavement replacements, and planting trees. 04 Implementing a Stormwater Utility Fee allows South Burlington to invest in climate change resiliency when otherwise impossible without dedicated funds. In FY23, the city collected $4.4 million in stormwater tax revenue and reported $3.3 million in expenditures.05 This means that the city can keep infrastructure safe and up to date while using the excess million to help fund resiliency projects, such as detention parks, culvert expansions, wetland restorations, and floodproofing existing and future development.

percent of impervious surface per parcel, and found that the concentration of land is downtown and in the floodway. Downtown Barre will continue to be in a cycle of rebuild until adaptation can be implemented to replace excessive impervious pavement. Because existing land uses are so diverse, the solutions will also have to be diverse.

Industrial properties can install water retention tanks, and plant trees where possible. Commercial businesses can ensure utilities are raised out of the basement, and the City of Barre can reevaluate the amount of public parking and imagine a more sustainable and inclusive use of downtown space.

To imagine this fund for Barre, I started by taking into account the pressure on the tax base from the loss of property in the floods. 600 homes were damaged, and over 50 homes requested FEMA buyouts. The city couldn’t handle the loss of tax base from buyouts and had to deny most requests, leaving vulnerable homeowners even more exposed.06 I also analyzed the 2024 Grand List Assessment to understand where the city collects property taxes and, more importantly, where they don’t.

I found that over 100 properties (out of about 6,000) pay $0 in property taxes.07 The properties included parking lots downtown, churches, railroad land, and industrial properties with special tax exemption agreements. Most of these properties are downtown in the inundation zone. Additionally, I calculated the Fig. 04

Impervious Surface Percent by Parcel Map

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Fig. 05

Open Space Parcels For Water Retention Map

RESILIENT BARRE AND RESILIENT VERMONT It will take time to implement a stormwater tax.

It will take time to rebuild what was lost in Barre.

But without stable funds, the legacy of the Barre community will wash away with the floods. An equitable tax can have a ripple effect in resiliency and housing—incentivizing the implementation of STPs, the development of multifamily housing, and protection and adaptation of towns against the growing threat of climate change. As part of the studio, I imagined a time in Barre where funds could be used to convert parking lot space into a beautiful adaptive park. In this way, sustainability planning can be used as a catalyst to drive economic development near commercial corridors and

Fig. 06

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inspire urban joy in the form of public space. As a student beginning my career in planning and design, learning about disaster relief and resiliency in Vermont has inspired me to seek out solutions for cities that are self-sustaining, equitable, and future-proofed.

Resiliency Park Proposal Axon

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ENDNOTES 01

Vermont Public. “Vermont Towns to Receive Increased Federal Funding for 2023 Flood Damage.” Vermont Public, November 13, 2024.

02

Vermont Public.”‘A Kick in the Stomach’: Barre City Floods on Anniversary of Last Year’s Destruction.” Vermont Public, July 11, 2024.

03

FEMA. “FEMA Awards Over $22 Million to Vermont for July Storms and Flooding Recovery Costs.” FEMA Press Release, January 22, 2025.

04

City of South Burlington. Credit Manual for Stormwater Fees. South Burlington, VT.

05

City of South Burlington. Annual Report FY23. South Burlington, VT.

06

Seven Days Vermont. “Vermonters Want Buyouts for Their Flooded Homes. Some Towns Are Saying No.” Seven Days Vermont.

07

City of Barre. FY24 City of Barre Grand List (Corrected).

Barre, VT.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Miranda Ayres is a second-year Master of City Planning student with a focus in Urban Design. Miranda is passionate about urban joy and how community and sustainability driven design for the public realm can create equitable futures for all. In her free time, you can find her reading a book or taking a nap in an Adirondak chair in Schuylkill Park.

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BOSTON STUDIO In their second studio, students in the MCP program explored strategies to address the growing challenges of extreme heat in the Greater Grove Hall neighborhood of Boston. This work comes at a critical moment as communities across the globe grapple with the intensifying impacts of climate change. For a city like Boston, where temperature increases exceed the global average by over 3.5°F, the consequences of extreme heat are deeply felt, particularly in neighborhoods already burdened by social and environmental inequities.

Due to climate change, heat waves are becoming a more common occurrence across American cities.1 The increase in extreme heat risk has scary implications for human health. Even a small increase in outside temperatures can disrupt our bodies’ ability to function properly leading to significant physiological damage.2 Extreme heat can increase the risk of hospitalisation for heart disease. Heat exhaustion and dehydration during heat strokes can cause critical illness, brain and kidney injury. Aside from these direct effects on the human body, heat can worsen asthma and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.3 As a result, it is unsurprising to note heat killed an estimated 11,000 people in 2023, a record high number since records were first kept.4 Heat disproportionately affects vulnerable populations— people without access to healthcare, those with compromised health conditions and weaker immune systems.

Fig. 01

Greater Grove Hall stands as one of Boston’s more affordable and diverse neighborhoods, but affordability here comes at a cost. Many renters, who make up over 70% of the population, live in older housing stock, often without air conditioning—leaving residents vulnerable to heat stress during the summer months. The neighborhood is home to a significant Black, Latino, and immigrant population, with a high proportion of children and elderly residents. These groups are not only more susceptible to the health risks associated with heat but also face barriers to accessing resources that can provide relief.

The physical environment of Grove Hall intensifies these challenges. Over 70% of the neighborhood is covered by impervious surfaces.

Asphalt Concrete, the foundational building block of our cities, has a high thermal capacity and hence absorbs and radiates more heat.5 Alongside retaining external heat, cities also produce their own heat. Energy consumption, vehicular emissions—all produce heat that can make cities feel much hotter than what is displayed on a thermometer. This phenomenon is known as Urban Heat Island. In these heat islands, daytime temperatures can be 1–7°F higher than temperatures in outlying areas and nighttime temperatures are about 2-5°F higher.6 Boston, a historically cold city, is not prepared to deal for these rising temperatures. Despite being known for its cold winters, summer temperatures in Boston have been increasing at an alarming and irreversible rate. Even if major reductions in emissions were to occur, Boston’s current trajectory of temperature change has been locked in. By 2070, the number of days over 100°F (38°C) is expected to increase from 10 to up to 46 by 2070.7 It is essential that the city builds resilience strategies in order to combat extreme heat. For Boston, building extreme heat resilience is not just a matter of adapting to climate change, but also enacting environmental justice. Historic disinvestment has decimated the access to heat mitigating features in some neighborhoods. As a result, temperatures in these disadvantaged neighborhoods can be 7.5% hotter than the Boston average. 8

Heat Map of Greater Grove Hall

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Our strategies focus on reducing temperatures in urban heat hotspots, improving accessibility to cooling infrastructure, and designing features that foster resilience and emergency preparedness.

Our recommendations address Grove Hall’s unique needs while contributing to Boston’s broader climate adaptation and social equity goals.

Four main categories when it came to Grove Hall recommendations: BUILDING BETTER INFRASTRUCTURE

• Build off of existing infrastructure plans • Bus shelter 2.0 • Cool commercial corridors • Blue hill avenue tap phase 2.0 We propose Bus Shelter 2.0 which includes drinking water stations, high priority locations, and the use of heat-resistant materials. In order for this project to be successful it’s important to maintain regular upkeep of these shelters for functionality, cleanliness and use. Integrating local artwork would also aid in reflecting Grove Hall’s culture through murals and mosaics.

Another recommendation was to develop a Cooling Commercial Corridor by planting greenery along Grove Hall’s major commercial corridors to create a walkable network even in high temperatures. We proposed planting trees or shrubs in roadway medians, vacant lots, and empty storefronts, using sensors to measure effectiveness. These initiatives aim to improve transportation infrastructure, mitigate urban heat, and foster community well-being Greater Grove hall.

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Fig. 03

A quick overlay sketch of green infill along Alexander Street in Greater Grove Hall, Boston.

Fig. 04

Example of a green bus shelter design. Source: Smart Cities World.com

Details on the proposed phased approach to building out a cooling commercial corridor network throughout Greater Grove Hall

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IMPROVE LAND USE PATTERNS

• Build off of current city programs • Vacant land in grove hall • Green spaces heat resilience and community • Balancing needs • Zoning and land use changes

Grove Hall has a high concentration of vacant lots. In the short term, many of these lots can be repurposed as pocket parks and other forms of public open space. These spaces can reduce surrounding temperatures in periods of extreme heat while also providing sites for community

Fig. 05

programming. In the long term, changes to Boston’s complex zoning code are needed to ensure a built environment that is more resilient to extreme heat. This can include a variety of tools such as added developer incentives to promote the installation of cooling infrastructure in new developments as well as more explicit requirements for heat mitigation in the zoning code. Additionally, comprehensive zoning reform should be pursued to ensure long-term heat resilience and a reduced urban heat island effect while making redevelopment of vacant lots easier.

This would include reducing minimum lot sizes and simplifying residential zoning, reducing minimum off street parking requirements, and allowing more mixed-use development.

Proposed use of vacant lots in a high vacancy area along Blue Hill Ave. As three lots are developed into pocket parks along this commercial corridor, the city could distribute its remaining holdings to affordable housing developers. One lot is reserved for commercial corridor customer parking and would incorporate permeable pavement and shade structures.

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IMPROVE SOCIAL COHESION

• Limitations of current approaches • Expansive resilience centers • Heat team structure and education: bridging • Communication knowledge gaps communication: building on • Emergency existing systems

• Supporting vulnerable populations

Fig. 06

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Vulnerable populations include seniors living alone, households without air conditioning, outdoor workers, and younger residents. Social isolation is a significant factor in heat-related deaths. Current strategies, such as cooling centers, provide short term relief but are limited in scope. These centers often disrupt essential services, such as child care, and fail to address broader community needs. The proposed solution includes the development of resilience centers that function year-round. These centers would provide multi-functional cooling spaces, services alongside job training, health care, recreational activities, and public Wi-Fi. Dedicated areas for different age groups would ensure that existing programs continue without disruption.

A “Heat Team” would be established to perform wellness checks, supporting neighborhoodlevel heat resilience. By adapting other case study models, Grove Hall can strengthen its heat resilience and promote long-term community well being.

The Rooftop Farm in Dorchester is a good example of what it looks like when heat mitigation requirements are incorporated directly into the zoning code. Cambridge has requirements for reflective roofs in their zoning codes and calculates what they call cool or green scores which can be met with site elements like tree canopies, green roofs and walls, and other shade structures. Source: Recover Green Roofs

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CLOSE POLICY GAPS

• Winter heating regulation • Painting roofs/ changing roof materials Grove Hall can learn from Boston’s urban sustainability efforts by adopting cool roof initiatives, stormwater management techniques, and energy-efficient infrastructure. Boston’s cool roof program uses reflective materials to reduce heat absorption, saving energy and mitigating the urban heat island effect. Grove

Fig. 07

Hall could implement similar cool roofing solutions, especially in heat-prone areas, to cut cooling costs and enhance climate resilience.

Additionally, Boston’s use of permeable pavements and green infrastructure like rain gardens helps manage stormwater, which Grove Hall could integrate into its urban gardens for better water retention and flood prevention. By applying these strategies, Grove Hall can improve sustainability, reduce energy consumption, and create a more comfortable urban environment.

A dissection of the difference between a typical cooling center and a resilient center. Current cooling centers are effective in providing immediate cooling relief during extreme heat waves, whether through official public buildings being turned into cooling centers or through the creation of pop-up centers. To turn this into a comprehensive hub system for the entire community there are further developments that need to be made in terms of physical infrastructure as well as in the programming that is available to residents.

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ENDNOTES 01

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Learn About Heat Island Effects. Accessed [date of access]. https:// www.epa.gov/heatislands/learn-about-heat-islandeffects#:~:text=Heat%20islands%20are%20urbanized%20 areas,how%20to%20measure%20heat%20islands.

02

Beker, B. M., C. Cervellera, A. De Vito, and C. G. Musso.

“Human Physiology in Extreme Heat and Cold.”

International Archives of Clinical Physiology 1 (2018): 001. https://doi.org/10.23937/iacph-2017/1710001.

03

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Extreme Heat. Climate Change, Health & Equity. Accessed November 24, 2024. https://www.hhs.gov/climate-changehealth-equity-environmental-justice/climate-changehealth-equity/climate-health-outlook/extreme-heat/index. htm.

04

05

Mohajerani, Abbas, Joshua Bakaric, and Tristan JeffreyBailey. “ The Urban Heat Island Effect, Its Causes, and Mitigation, with Reference to the Thermal Properties of Asphalt Concrete.” Journal of Environmental Management 197 (2017): 522–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jenvman.2017.03.095.

06

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Learn About Heat Island Effects. Accessed [date of access]. https:// www.epa.gov/heatislands/learn-about-heat-islandeffects#:~:text=Heat%20islands%20are%20urbanized%20 areas,how%20to%20measure%20heat%20islands.

07

City of Boston. Presentation on Income-Restricted Housing. 2022. https://www.boston.gov/sites/default/files/ file/2022/05/Presentation.pdf.

08

Ibid.

Borenstein, Seth. “2023 Set a Record for U.S. Heat Deaths.

Why 2024 Could Be Even Deadlier.” PBS NewsHour, May 31, 2024. Accessed November 24, 2024. https://www.pbs. org/newshour/nation/2023-set-a-record-for-u-s-heatdeaths-why-2024-could-be-even-deadlier.

Studio Team

• Avani Adhikari • Adil Belgaumi • Michael Clifford • Bofang Jiang • Alice Kansiime • Kuma Luo • Revathi Machan • Riya Saini • Ryan Smith • Shuai Wang • William Wang • Hao Zhu • Wenjun Zhu

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EAGLES URBANISM Claudia Schreier How can we replicate the joy of February 2025?

On February 9, 2025, our Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl in New Orleans. Within hours, an estimated 100,000 fans back home flooded Broad Street. Five days later, we got a Super Bowl Victory Parade, starting at the stadiums, moving up Broad Street, and then ending at the Philadelphia Art Museum for some rousing speeches. Over a million were estimated to be in attendance in the cold. They were with their families or friends, perhaps chanting E-A-G-L-E-S, and many getting a glimpse of our team bringing home the Lombardi Trophy for the second time ever.

Fig. 01

The celebration on February 9 was impromptu, but expected, as city officials facilitated planned chaos. The parade, however, wasn’t just a typical drunken celebration on Broad—it was a full-scale transformation of the city’s public space. Roads were closed, cars were absent, and for about a day, Philadelphia was pedestrian-dominated. This wasn’t the first time the city had erupted in joy over sports (the 2008 Phillies and 2018 Eagles parades cannot be forgotten), but what stood out about this parade was how the celebration felt like more than just a team victory. It was a moment of connection, inviting our community to come together in a much needed celebration, especially after a tough few months in our city and nation.

Celebrations near City Hall Source: Anonymous Contributor

Fig. 02

Crowds Gather for Speeches at the Philadelphia Museum of Art (2018) Source: governortomwolf on Flickr

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The celebrations were contagious. Even for those who aren’t die-hard Eagles fans, there was no escaping the green wave that took over leading up to the Super Bowl. Most passing you by on the street wore their Eagles gear, and if you did the same, you might have been greeted with a cheerful “Go Birds!”.

Strangers bonded over a shared identity, and even those who weren’t originally invested in football found themselves swept up in the excitement.

It was less about the game itself and more about participating in something that united the city. For many, being an Eagles fan isn’t necessarily always about loving our football team.

Rather, it’s about loving Philadelphia.

It’s moments like these that make me wonder why we have to wait for the next big sports victory or parade Fig. 03 Celebrations on Walnut Street to experience this kind of collective joy (we also can’t kid ourselves and hope for the Phillies to for connection, why not create opportunities for win the World Series any time soon). If we can turn real-life, face-to-face interactions?

Broad Street into a pedestrian-friendly, celebratory space for one day, why can’t we do it more often, There’s also something to be said for the way and in other places, too? these celebrations can support public transit. The successes of SEPTA during these celebrations The potential for this kind of transformation exists showed what’s possible when transit is reliable, every day in the form of small projects all over the accessible, and used by many. Ridership on SEPTA city. In an age where we’re all constantly looking has been down since the pandemic began, but

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Fig. 04

Eagles Fans Cheer on a Parade Float

these moments of happiness could spark a lasting interest in public transit across the region. Perhaps this is the first time in many years (or even ever) that some parade-goers have used SEPTA, and maybe replicating the joy and rekindling our city’s relationship with public transit go hand in hand.

The joy of February 2025 was infectious, and one can only hope it sparked realizations that urban celebrations aren’t just about the events themselves—they’re about shared experience.

If we can create moments of connection that span across neighborhoods, why not build on this energy to make lasting changes in the way we interact with our city and each other?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Claudia Schreier (she/her) is a second-year Master of City Planning student with a focus in Smart Cities. She is passionate about emerging technologies that promote equity and sustainability in the city. Claudia holds a BS in Oceanography from the University of Delaware (Go Blue Hens!). Outside of school, she is slowly completing her mission to visit every independent coffee shop in Philadelphia.

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Bleecker Street Subway Station

Farmers’ Market on Union Square

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Gilder Center for Science, Education, and Innovation

Light and Shadow in the East Village

Summer Afternoon on Tompkins Square Park

LITTLE MOMENTS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR. Shuai Wang is a Master of City Planning student concentrating in Smart Cities. With a name intriguingly embedding “AI”, he’s passionate about exploring the power of urban technology in the built environment. Prior to Penn, he studied in the UK and China, where he contributed to active travel policies and community engagement. Travelling has been a significant part of his life. Seeing firsthand how cultures, lifestyles and food interact across different places, he’s more determined to uncover the hidden dynamics that drive the development of cities.

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Panorama Vol. 33

LETTER FROM THE EDITORS Dear Readers, As we close out this new edition of Panorama, we are compelled to revisit our interpretation of “Back to Basics.” In a time when many feel abandoned by and detached from large-scale planning efforts, it is essential to highlight the work beginning at local levels. This edition explores what it looks like when planning remains deeply rooted in our communities—where we can get to know our neighbors, engage directly with local needs, and address the most pressing issues facing us together.

Planning is not just about creating infrastructure; it is about shaping spaces to be more livable, and livable for everyone. We cannot ignore the reality that communities of color are disproportionately affected by the threat of irresponsible planning and unfair government action. Data should not up for debate—housing shortages, the effects of climate change, the gaps in access to resources, and environmental disasters that strike hardest in marginalized areas—they are all real, and they demand our attention.

The work of planning cannot be divorced from justice. It is essential that we center it in everything we do, not as an abstract ideal, but as a response to the lived experiences of those who have been excluded or ignored by traditional planning institutions. As planners, we must ask ourselves: how are we ensuring that the benefits of planning are shared equitably? Are we upholding the principle of procedural justice in our work, sharing decision-making powers with those that are most affected? How are we restoring balance and righting the wrongs of the past?

This edition features a body of work that grapples with these questions. From topics of climate migration and environmental disasters to the persistent housing crisis in cities across the US and globally, lived experiences and spatial data tells us that we are at a critical juncture. We are living in a time where the gap between the wealthy and the poor is widening, where access to public space is increasingly limited, and where entire communities are being displaced by forces beyond their control. These are not abstract ideas—it is happening whether institutions publicly recognize it or not.

Panorama also explores how smaller-scale, local planning efforts can offer solutions, and more importantly hope for a better future. We are inspired by community-driven initiatives that provide access to resources where they are most needed. Pieces take a hard look at the infrastructure gaps that prevent equitable access to housing, waste management, and healthcare, highlighting real-world solutions being implemented in domestic and global studio locations. We challenge the notion that planning must always be large-scale or top-down. Instead, we see the power of grassroots planning that addresses immediate needs and envisions a future where communities can thrive.

However, the need for action goes beyond what we can accomplish locally. As we witness ongoing hate and violence at home, as well as conflict abroad, we are reminded of the urgent need for planners to be global citizens as well. We cannot simply observe injustice—we must speak out. Irrefutable facts from these conflict zones show that people are suffering, being displaced, and facing unimaginable hardship. As people, we must ask ourselves: what is our role in advocating for those who have no voice in these decisions?

What responsibility do we have to stand against oppression, wherever it exists? Will we do nothing?

We hope this edition of Panorama sparks critical reflection and action—on what it includes, but also what it leaves out. While the challenges ahead may seem overwhelming, we are driven by the belief that by confronting these uncomfortable truths, by using reality to inform our work, and by remaining steadfast in our commitment to justice, we can build a better future.

With urgency and hope, The Panorama Editorial Team

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ABOUT THE TEAM CLAUDIA SCHREIER (SHE/HER) Is a second-year Master of City Planning student with a focus in Smart Cities. She is passionate about emerging technologies that promote equity and sustainability in the city. Claudia holds a BS in Oceanography from the University of Delaware (Go Blue Hens!).

Outside of school, she is slowly completing her mission to visit every independent coffee shop in Philadelphia.

CHUWEN ZHONG (SHE/HER) Is a first-year Master of City Planning student. She specializes in transportation infrastructure planning and policy, utilizing data-driven and spatial analysis methods to support policymakers in making resilient and inclusive decisions. In particular, she is passionate about exploring emerging technologies while also dedicated to enhancing safety and decarbonization through multimodal public transit systems. Guided by Vision Zero and Net Zero, she aims to drive urban transportation toward a future that is more innovative, sustainable, and equitable.

RUJIE CHENG (SHE/HER) Is a first-year Master of City Planning student, concentrating in Housing, Community, and Economic Development while pursuing a certificate in GIS and Spatial Analysis. With a background in Sociology from China, she is particularly interested in the interplay between the built environment and social life. In her spare time, Rujie enjoys street film photography, documenting her dreams, and listening to the tides.

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Panorama Vol. 33

REVATHI V. MACHAN (SHE/HER) Is a second-year Master of City Planning student focusing on Housing, Community, and Economic Development. She studied environmental planning and policy during her undergrad at Rutgers and now uses that foundation to inform her current interests. Revathi’s passions are extensive, ranging from basic streetscape improvements to comprehensive resilience planning, but they all center on one theme: incentivizing sustainability in the policy and planning world. At the moment, she’s exploring the obstacles that climate migrants face and how to connect them to the resources they need. When she’s not lost in a rabbit hole of research, you can find her working on tattoo commissions, trying to fix all her problems with a laser cutter, and exploring new restaurants in the city.

HEDDY PARKER (SHE/HER) Is a first-year Master of City Planning student, focusing in on urban development and design. Originally from San Francisco, CA, Heddy is drawn to understanding process, actor networks, and the delegation of decisions as they shape place and impact people. She aims to pursue affordable housing development, as it intersects with economic and community development at a neighborhood-scale. Outside of school, Heddy enjoys long walks in new spaces, swimming or otherwise being near water, engaging Francophone strangers in French, cooking and spending time with family and friends, and struggling through beginner Polish.

YAO CHEN Is a first-year Master of City Planning student with a concentration in Urban Design. With a background in UD and data analysis, she is passionate about leveraging technology to enhance urban mobility and sustainability. Before coming to Penn, she led research projects on aging communities and micro-renewal strategies in Shanghai. Outside of school, Yao enjoys exploring cities through photography, making handmade noodles, perfecting her recipes, and singing her heart out.

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