First Choice Purchasing: Commodity Market Report Q3 2024

Ireland Commodity Market Report

Q3 2024

o Key commodity updates o Cost of living update o Global supply chain news o Weather conditions o What’s in season

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Market Report | Quarter 3 2024

Welcome to the Market Report

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In this report, we provide the latest commodity market updates gathered from impartial market research, reliable news sources, and our team of supply chain experts.

We cover key price trends and recommend ways to mitigate price increases. We also look at product availability and what produce is in season, to help inform your purchasing.

Alex Gess Business Supply Chain Analyst First Choice Purchasing We’re here to help you. enquiries@firstchoicepurchasing .com

Market Conditions weather, there is hope for continued growth.

The industry, which has struggled since COVID-19, needs a strong summer with events like the Olympics, global tours, concerts, and festivals to capitalise on this momentum.

CLIMATE CHANGE The weather has noticeably changed over the past few years, with spring feeling wetter and windier and summer heat not arriving until late June.

COST OF LIVING In June, good news emerged as the inflation rate dropped to 1.7% in Ireland.

This is the lowest rate in nearly three years after the steep rises at the end of 2022, and it is hoped that this stability will offer consumers more financial security.

1.7%

Ra te of i nfla ti on af ter re pea ted dr ops i n 2 02 4

Other positive indicators include rising property prices and wage increases in May, alongside an adjusted GDP growth forecast of 3.6% for the year, up from 3.2%.

Retail sales also showed signs of recovery, with a 2.9% increase in May and a 1% rise over the past three months. Online shopping surged by 5.9%, suggesting improved consumer confidence.

The hospitality sector in Ireland saw a boost from international football after a slow Easter period.

Pubs, restaurants, and bars benefited from increased spending, and with the summer

Surprisingly, despite the grey skies and high winds, May and the spring period were the warmest on record in Ireland.

This period also saw higher-thanaverage rainfall, highlighting the increasing extremes in weather.

The unpredictable weather conditions are significantly impacting farming operations in Ireland.

The wet ground has made it nearly impossible to use vehicles on the land, leading to delays in planting. Potatoes, in particular, have been severely affected, prompting farmers to seek government assistance due to delays in lifting the 2023 crop and planting this year's.

Market Report | Quarter 3 2024

While production and storage costs are decreasing in line with inflation, the weather remains the primary cost driver, significantly affecting yields and profit margins.

The production of common crops like wheat, barley, and potatoes is expected to drop by 21% compared to the average of the previous decade.

It's not just domestic weather changing; major export countries have also suffered over the past 18 months.

In 2023, the Mediterranean experienced record-high temperatures, impacting the region's production of citrus fruits, tomatoes, and olives.

These climate changes have led to altered planting seasons, lower crop yields, and increased prices for imported goods. This is particularly concerning for Ireland, which relies heavily on such imports.

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN Weather changes and political unrest continue to disrupt the global supply chain, and this trend is expected to persist throughout 2024.

Both major global shipping canals have faced significant disruptions for over six months. Traffic through the Suez Canal has dropped by 50% due to attacks

by Houthi rebels.

With the ongoing conflict in Palestine, normal shipping patterns are unlikely to resume soon.

These disruptions have led to increased voyage times, higher insurance and fuel costs, and a need for more vessels to transport the same volume of goods.

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The Panama Canal has also faced disruptions, this time due to natural factors. Poor rainfall and drought in Central and South America have kept water levels too low for normal shipping operations.

below, but generally appear to be positive.

This particularly affects grain transport ships and deepbottomed container ships, as the low water levels mean there are adjustments to the weight, size and load restrictions ships must adhere to.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, including a Russian spring offensive and a predicted Ukrainian summer counteroffensive, directly impacts Ireland.

Experts predict these delays could persist throughout 2024.

Several developments have impacted global exports. In May, the UK government banned the export of live animals for further fattening and slaughter due to animal welfare concerns.

This policy change, affecting up to a million animals at the trade's peak, may increase processing costs and impact export levels, though the long-term effects are yet to be seen. Adjustments in exports from Asia, particularly India and Thailand, have also been made, which will be discussed in relevant categories

Conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine show no signs of resolution, with continued hostilities reported in both regions.

Reduced grain and sunflower exports and shipping restrictions have added to the global supply chain challenges.

ELECTIONS 2024 is shaping up to be a significant year for elections, with numerous elections across Europe and the highly anticipated American election at the end of the year.

The outcomes of these elections will undoubtedly create disruptions in the supply chain.

The industry must be prepared to adapt to new policies and changes in demand that will arise in the aftermath.

Market Report | Quarter 3 2024

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Key commodity updates MEAT There has been an increase in retail demand for cheaper cuts of beef, partly due to the upcoming grilling season.

However, this trend also reflects the financial constraints many families are experiencing, leading them to opt for more affordable options.

Ireland has had a successful year in beef exports, meeting the demand in the UK and Europe. There has been a 2% increase in exports compared to last year and a 3% increase in the slaughter rate compared to the previous period.

Additionally, there is mild concern about the Blue Tongue disease affecting Ireland herds, with farmers advised on precautions and procedures.

Ireland has experienced poor spring weather, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in the

number of spring lambs. This is expected to cause a slight supply shortage, which will likely need to be addressed through additional imports.

Pork prices in Ireland have been rising due to the increased market value of pigs and their higher average weight at processing, leading to greater yield and value per pig.

However, rising costs over the past two years have caused a decline in the overall pig population on farms.

The current throughput rate is about 2% lower than it was at this time last year, which has helped keep sector pricing strong. Consequently, the supply remains tight, maintaining higher-thannormal market prices.

Recent increases in feed, fuel, and fertiliser costs have affected all three proteins— beef, lamb, and pork. Global

conflicts, weather changes, and shipping disruptions may further impact these key inputs in the short term.

Irish poultry farms have faced challenges with Avian flu, which has caused stock level issues and impacted prices.

Additionally, there is a concerted effort to reduce the overall Chicken population on farms as consumer demand for ethically raised and slaughtered meat increases.

Reducing the number of chickens per farm improves conditions for each bird but also raises costs. Due to the increased demand across the EU, Irish exports have increased by 3% against this time last year.

Eggs have been impacted by Salmonella contamination in imports from Poland, and an announcement that poultry and eggs from Ukraine will remain tariff-free for two more years. The Salmonella issue is mainly contained, resulting in a -5.6% price decrease over the last month.

FISH The white fish market has experienced significant volatility since the invasion of Ukraine. Cod, Haddock, and Pollock, traditionally sourced from Russian waters, have been affected by recent sanctions.

This has increased reliance on Norwegian whitefish, which, while generally of higher quality, is also more expensive. Consequently, there has been a prolonged period of price fluctuations.

Market Report | Quarter 3 2024

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Currently, prices have improved by -11% and -50% from the previous month, but this decrease is expected to be temporary. Lower summer demand for fish, as consumers turn to BBQ meats, has supported this price decrease.

Salmon prices typically dip in summer due to increased demand for barbecue meats before rising again towards the festive period. This pattern is evident this year, with a 10% decrease in a single month.

Prices began falling after strong Easter demand and are closer to late 2023 levels.

There have been concerns about the health of Norwegian fish farms, with reports of increased parasites and diseases throughout 2023, but this has not had a lasting effect on market supply.

Sustainability concerns and catch rate regulations heavily influence the fish market.

Consider alternatives to popular species to manage costs without sacrificing quality or taste. For example, halibut is an excellent substitute for haddock, and pollock or mackerel can be used in fish pies.

DAIRY The Irish dairy industry has performed exceptionally well for most of the past decade, but there are concerns that market conditions may impact pricing and weaken the industry.

A notable example is the reduced demand for Milk, as consumers grapple with the cost of living, leading to a 186 million litre decrease in production over the past year.

Butter prices have increased by as much as +12.8% in the

last month, while cheese prices have risen by +2.7%.

Despite these increases, demand for both products remains largely stable, with a slight uptick in retail demand expected as we head into the summer. Consequently, we can expect prices to stay firm until our next report.

quarter and soaring by as much as +80% compared to this time last year.

The main issue for products such as Butter and Cheese is that milk shortages, as reported in the EU over the past two months, disrupt the supply chain.

Main season crops are progressing well, aided by higher temperatures recently.

However, conditions conducive to blight have been present.

This shortage means that milk needed for processing into cheese and butter is both less available and more expensive.

The continued high demand, combined with consistently poor supply conditions and the notably deficient 2023 harvest, has depleted most reserves ahead of the upcoming summer harvest in July.

Most of these dairy products will likely see price stabilisation only when the market becomes more saturated with raw milk in the spring.

Unseasonably prolonged wet weather severely impacted the root vegetable crop, leading to flooded fields and hindering planting and harvesting operations.

Consequently, we are witnessing significant price increases, with prices up by +27% compared to last

Demand remains positive at consumer and retail level.

Stocks continue to tighten, but the availability of new season varieties is helping to bolster supply.

To combat the poor harvest results, the total growing area for this year was increased by 2%.

Concerns loom over the upcoming harvest, with fears that delayed planting and adverse weather conditions may have hindered proper crop growth.

Other domestically grown fruits and vegetables in Ireland

Market Report | Quarter 3 2024

have also faced challenges, resulting in increased imports from European sources.

With 83% of all fruit and veg needing to be imported the domestic market is reliant on good weather, strong harvests and exports. This reliance has significantly impacted the availability of Mushrooms, Peas and Cabbages.

These crops have faced shortened growing or harvesting seasons, leading to a supply gap of 2 to 4 weeks between the end of Irish produce availability and the arrival of European stock, primarily from Spain and the Netherlands.

While these shortages are expected to be temporary, importing goods incurs higher costs, despite potentially lower production costs, due to additional stages in the supply chain.

The Mediterranean and northern Africa have been particularly hard-hit by adverse weather conditions at the start of the year, including droughts and forest fires that devastated large portions of the olive crop and significantly impacted yields for

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Strawberries, Tomatoes, and Peppers.

These weather disruptions have also delayed the winter brassica crop and pushed back the tomato harvest by about 3 weeks, resulting in a staggering 97% increase in tomato prices compared to last year.

While greenhouses can mitigate some of the impact of adverse weather, their use adds space and operational costs, further contributing to the higher prices of affected products.

EDIBLE OILS The oil category's primary concern is Olive Oil, following the decimation of crops due to last year's droughts and wildfires.

The resulting decimation of olive crops led to record-low exports globally, as Mediterranean countries withheld stock or simply lacked sufficient quantities for export, driving up prices.

In response to these shortages and escalating costs, the market sought alternative sources, resulting in a notable

shift: imports of Olive Oil from non-EU countries surged by +26%, while internal purchases plummeted by 36%. Similar trends are anticipated to persist into the current year.

The supply and pricing pressures on Olive Oil have reverberated throughout the market, leading to price increases for Sunflower and Rapeseed Oil in the last quarter.

Prices surged by +9% for Sunflower Oil and +5% for Rapeseed Oil as buyers pivoted towards these alternatives.

Adverse weather conditions have significantly impacted crops over the past two years, with this year's Rapeseed crop yield forecasted to decline by 9% compared to last year, further exacerbating production challenges.

Although exports of Sunflower Seeds and Oil from Ukraine have helped alleviate some supply pressures, these sources are now considered more predictable and no longer seen as supplementary to the market.

The ongoing dynamics in Olive Oil and its alternatives underscore the complex interplay of weather disruptions, shifting consumer demand, and global supply chain challenges in the oils sector.

DRY STORES Three essential commodities have faced significant challenges over the past 18 months, primarily due to adverse weather conditions, and these issues are expected to persist into 2024.

Market Report | Quarter 3 2024

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Cocoa prices have skyrocketed by +20% annually, reaching unprecedented highs primarily due to dismal crop yields in Western Africa.

Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, responsible for 40% and 20% of global cocoa production respectively, reported crop shortfalls as high as -32% compared to last year.

Erratic weather patterns exacerbated these shortages, prompting an increase in crop theft and smuggling amid record-high prices.

South American countries, major Sugar exporters, have also faced significant market pressures. Despite recent price decreases since May, sugar prices saw an overall quarterly decline of more than -11%.

-11%

De crease in t he pri ce of S ugar over a Q uar ter

Export bans from countries like India, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, initially imposed due to poor crop yields, have constrained global supply.

While these regions do not heavily impact sugar production, global market

adjustments may increase demand for EU and South American stocks, potentially driving prices up again if shortages persist.

Coffee's popularity surge has intensified South America's focus on coffee production, with countries like Honduras, Ecuador, and Colombia leading global exports.

However, regional dependencies have made the coffee market susceptible to weather and shipping conditions.

Droughts and infrastructure challenges in Brazil have resulted in smaller bean sizes and lower yields despite favourable harvesting conditions.

As a result, coffee prices have steadily increased month-onmonth in 2024, with Robusta beans rising by +21% and Arabica by +18% over the last quarter alone, following brief price drops in May during harvesting season.

The ongoing challenges in cocoa, sugar, and coffee underscore the critical impact of weather variability on global agricultural production and commodity prices.

They also highlight the need for resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions.

Market Report | Quarter 3 2024

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In Season Asparagus, Artichoke, Basil, Beetroot, Carrots, Cauliflower, Chives, Crab, Kale, Kiwi, Lamb, Leeks, Lettuce, Rhubarb, Purple Broccoli, Salmon, Spinach, Spring Onions, Trout

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