5.0 Analysis of Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Plan 2016-36

The Mumbai Metropolitan Region is a growing and one of the largest urban mass in the country and emergence of the city-region as a significant entity and a greater dispersal of job centres in the suburbs of Greater Mumbai. The area includes 9 Municipal Councils, 8 Municipal Corporations and approximately over 1000 villages. The region has recently undergone multiple modifications and presently is constituted by several districts which have been formed by combining villages or talukas (administrative divisions/townships in Indian context). Overall land mass of the region is 4312 sq km, and divided up into districts as follows:

1. Mumbai Suburban District

2. Mumbai City District

3. Thane District (includes Kalyan, Ulhasnagar, Bhiwandi and Thane Tehsil)

4. Palghar (Vasai, Vihar Tehsil)

5. Raigad District (includes Pen, Panvel, Khalalpur, Alibaugh and Karjat Tehsil) (MMRDA, 2022)

Greater Mumbai (often referred as Mumbai ) constituted by the Mumbai City District and Mumbai Suburban District has seen a great dispersal of jobs in this region. Greater Mumbai or Mumbai is one of the economic hubs of the country and it is important for planning strategies to take leverage; ‘addressing issues of growing urbanization, uneven distribution of jobs, increasing commutes, lack of affordable housing and basic infrastructure in the region, environmental degradation and inadequate governance’(MMRRP,2022).. However, there is not any paramount theory or strategies to tackle climate change which can be applied to universally all contexts. As discussed early in the study, developing countries have multiple considerations to be included in urban planning, for the case of Mumbai is handling economic developments along with the increasing challenges of climate change. Therefore, with the purpose of understanding these setbacks, the following is an analysis of Mumbai Metropolitan Region Regional Plan 2016-36 with a focus on the future of urbanisation in the city of Mumbai.

5.1 Population Growth Trends

The region has experienced vast urban population migration, accounting for one of the cities is the MMR region being Mumbai. The region's economic development has always been fueled by Mumbai which is an economic hub for the country. Table 1 below describes the population growth of and distribution in Greater Mumbai until 2011 and according to census provided in 2011 and previous regional plan 1996-2011. The projected population growth is stated in Table 2 and a steady increase in population can be observed for Greater Mumbai to continue for next 20 years at least. Population density projections as per square kilometre based on the predictions of population is shown in Table 3.

There has been a drop for the population growth of Greater Mumbai observed after 2000-2001, coinciding with an increase for the neighbouring districts Observing the data and research, Mumbai has been a major nerve centre for population growth , with increasing densities for people living in the city. The observation from the data above indicates a rise in migration and in exterior regions of the city and metropolitan region after 1998, followed by expansion of development in these areas. For the construction of built environment to facilitate these developments the urbanisation boundaries have been extended, causing salt plans, flood sheds, coastal zones and green zones conversion. (urbanisation trend graph map , URBAN SPRAWL PG 41-42) The urban sprawl over the last decades is described in Figure 1.

5.2 Housing Needs

Housing needs for the populous migrating and living in Mumbai has been a major issue causing irregular and unconventional constructions which have a direct effect on the deterioration of the built environment as well the overall environmental health of the city. Facilitating for the housing need in the region has to be considered with multiple aspects. Current houses in slums, dilapidated buildings and accountability for existing buildings need to be taken in account. 91 % share of the population in the metropolitan region reside in the urban areas located (municipal regions). Under a third of this population of urban areas reside in slums. Greater Mumbai constitutes nearly 80 % of the slum households in the region. However, the overall proportion of urban slum households has decreased from 39.29 per cent in 2001 to 28.64 per cent in 2011.

The regional plan assesses the condition of housing in the region and states constraints faced by the planning commission towards housing development. Scarcity of land for new construction in Greater Mumbai is a major contributor for increasing prices in the real estate market. Furthermore, the Coastal Zone Management Regulations (CRZ), 1991, as revised in January 2011, have further restricted land availability. It has had an impact on new buildings in CRZ regions. The assessment of the regional plan also states public sector housing provision has not provided a significant tract of property. The private sector mainly focuses on the higher income groups. With no other choice, they are forced to rely on informal solutions like slums or illegal housing or live in overcrowded circumstances. (almost a third 27% of all households in MMR live in slums). Table 5 states statistics which were considered by the metropolitan regional plan with prediction to devise solutions for the housing need. Presuming the projections in table 4, the regional plan theories a need of 5,018,585 housing units by 2036, however the supply does not reach this amount, required additional units to accommodate households as seen in table 6.

5.3 Environmental Status

MMR Regional Plan 2016-36 states several issues condoning to the deterioration of environmental habitats, especially those with Mumbai city. Areas of natural diversity and protected areas have been severely affected due to construction projects. Physical infrastructure has not kept pace with urbanisation leading to pollution of water bodies and in turn affects flora and fauna ( Sheth, 2009 ). The plan has addressed this issue of environmental resources being stressed due to increasing urbanisation in MMR. Table 7 shows the pressure of urbanisation on protected areas. Majority of Mumbai (Greater Mumbai) is concentrated by urbanised regions, wherein the patches of notified forests and protected territories being under threat of no forest coverage. The analysis of intervention needs has allowed for future proposals to be made addressing the issue. The strategies adopted include The Sanjay Gandhi National Park in Mumbai (Greater Mumbai) by interconnecting other large green landscapes in the region through greenways and waterways. This aims to ; ‘reduce environmental degradation, channelize the urbanisable areas and also serve as lungs to the developed areas’(MMR Regional Plan 201636). A hindrance to the Sanjay Gandhi National Park habitat is the construction of Mumbai Metro Rail metro car shed project, which is still underway, affecting a major protected zone in the city.

5.4 Urbanisation Challenges

Mumbai city has encountered numerous adversities due to the continuous process of urbanisation occurring. Consequently, the climatic calamities have been amplified, reckoning on land deficiency, informal expansion of industries, inadequate hygiene and many more. From the research into population statistics and housing issues above, there is inadequacy for the region to provide feasible land for construction and adapting the growing urbanisation occurring. This suggests that there is a serious scarcity of inexpensive housing options in urban MMR, leaving individuals with no choice but to live in slums. This is the single most serious problem confronting MMR, which has some of the highest real estate prices in the world. People are being compelled to relocate further and further afield from the inner metropolis of Greater Mumbai in pursuit of inexpensive accommodation. The urban sprawl over the years observed in Figure 1 postulating the trend for urbanisation occurring in a horizontal form towards Kalyan, Thane,New Mumbai and Panvel ( not a part of Greater Mumbai)( Ramachandra, 2014). Urban sprawl in the region till 2011 is described in figure 6 The extensions in the region demonstrate attempts to transmit functions across the cities, However the operation of major activities in Mumbai suggests inefficient frameworks. A direct correlation of the city's large-scale urbanisation to the decreasing biodiversity is observed. Urbanisation pressuring the environmental resources of the city is the major reason for poor quality infrastructure in the city and ever going flooding occurring during the monsoon seasons every year. Moving forward to tackle populations and urbanisation, floor space index can be increased however this may not suffice the requirements if frameworks of urban infrastructure and sustainable land use become efficient for predicted needs in the future. An example of infrastructural networks to quantify the horizontal expansion is Mumbai Coastal Sea Road commenced in 2018, connecting Marine Drive to Kandivali through 8 lane expressways on the banks of the adjoining banks of Arabian Sea.