Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A case of Vadodara

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat A Case of Vadodara

Panchal Vivek

Dr. Saswat Bandyopadhyay

Roll №: PG191147

Faculty of Planning

2021 Ahmedabad, India

Copyright and Publications: The copyright for this report shall remain equally with the Guide(s), Student and CEPT University. All publications arising from this Directed Research Project will acknowledge the CEPT University, Climate Change Department, Government of Gujarat and concerned members of the aforementioned organization(s).

Climate Change Department, Government of Gujarat may use the outputs of the Directed Research Project for dissemination and publicity after the consent from CEPT University and ensuring proper acknowledgment to the Student, Guides(s) and CEPT University.

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Dedication Dedication

"The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, "The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new.”- Socrates but on building the new.”- Socrates We are all in this together; the greatest lesson Covid-19 pandemic can teach to We are all in this together; the greatest lesson Covid-19 pandemic can teach to humanitarian in these unusual times. I dedicate this research project to our humanitarian in these unusual times. I dedicate this research project to our frontline warriors and their families; who stepped forward beyond the frontline warriors and their families; who stepped forward beyond the stereotypes for battling the novel coronavirus disease that’s spreading rapidly stereotypes for battling the novel coronavirus disease that’s spreading rapidly throughout the city, state, nation, and around the world. They rise above all in throughout the city, state, nation, and around the world. They rise above all in this unprecedented crisis to provide selfless support and utmost care to our most this unprecedented crisis to provide selfless support and utmost care to our most vulnerable populations of the country. When the entire nation is under vulnerable populations of the country. When the entire nation is under lockdown, it’s their dedication, commitment, sacrifices, and courage kept lockdown, it’s their dedication, commitment, sacrifices, and courage kept motivating us to stay safe, educate, and work from home. Their altruistic service motivating us to stay safe, educate, and work from home. Their altruistic service saving countless lives, deserve our deepest gratitude and admiration. Thank you saving countless lives, deserve our deepest gratitude and admiration. Thank you for making thousands of differences and inspiring me to accomplish a research for making thousands of differences and inspiring me to accomplish a research project through these challenging times. project through these challenging times.

I dedicate this work to my beloved citizens of Vadodara city, Vadodara I dedicate this work to my beloved citizens of Vadodara city, Vadodara Municipal Corporation, and City Command & Control Centre (Disaster Municipal Corporation, and City Command & Control Centre (Disaster Management Office) regime for holding their nerve during this unexampled Management Office) regime for holding their nerve during this unexampled pandemic and other calamities encountered. pandemic and other calamities encountered.

I devote my work to my family and friends who have supported me throughout I devote my work to my family and friends who have supported me throughout the process. A special feeling of gratitude to my loving parents, Kanu and the process. A special feeling of gratitude to my loving parents, Kanu and Bhavna Panchal, whose words of encouragement pushed me to achieve this Bhavna Panchal, whose words of encouragement pushed me to achieve this milestone against the odds. milestone against the odds.

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Undertaking I, Panchal Vivek, the author of the DRP report titled “Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara”, hereby declare that this is an independent work of mine, carried out towards partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Master’s Degree at Faculty of Planning, CEPT University, Ahmedabad. This work has not been submitted to any other institution for the award of any Degree/Diploma.

Name of student

: Panchal Vivek

Roll №:

: PG191147

Date

: 27 June 2021

Place

: Vadodara

i

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Certificate This is to certify that the DRP report titled Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara has been submitted by Mr. Panchal Vivek towards partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Master’s Degree. This is a bona-fide work of the student and has not been submitted to any other university for award of any Degree/Diploma.

Dr. Mona Iyer

Dr. Saswat Bandyopadhyay

Program Chair (MUI)

Guide

Date: 27 June 2021

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Acknowledgments First and foremost, I praise God for showers of blessings, safeguarding and keeping me in good health throughout my research in these unprecedented times of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the entire nation is challenged to fight against it.

I would like to convey my sincere gratitude to my research guide, Dr. Saswat Bandyopadhyay, Professor, Faculty of Planning, CEPT University, for giving me the opportunity to do research and provide invaluable guidance throughout this research.

His dynamism, vision, morality, and drive have deeply inspired me. He taught me how to conduct research and present my findings in the most straightforward and concise manner possible. It was a great honour and privilege to work and learn under his direction. I am extremely grateful for what he has offered and would like to thank him for his friendship, empathy, and good humour. I wish to extend my heartfelt gratitude to his wife and family for their acceptance and patience during our research discussions.

I am grateful to all those I have had the pleasure to discuss my work during this and other related projects. Each of my Directed Research Project Committee members, Dr. Neeru Bansal, committee coordinator, Prof. Ashwani Kumar, and Prof.Tushar Bose, have provided continued support, encouragement, learning opportunities, insightful comments, and suggestions.

I appreciate the management and support staff of the Faculty of Planning, CEPT University, especially Jinu Joseph and Hansa Goel, for their genuine efforts to adapt to the new normal online mode of learning and provide any assistance requested at every stage, ensuring a hindrance-free research work.

I would like to offer my special thanks of gratitude to B.Chirasmita, Project Officer, Gujarat state disaster management authority, City Command & Control Center; Jay Shah, Project Officer Climate Change; Nishit Pithwa, Nishit Pithwa, PMAY Executive Engineer, Amrut Makwana, Additional City Engineer, Water Works Department; for their unwavering support and guidance in primary data collection for the Vadodara city;

v

and other city officials who obliquely assisted for gathering the necessary information required for the research project.

I am fortunate to have Sahil Patel as my research colleague and could not express enough thanks for round-the-clock peer learning and encouragement. I extend my sincere thanks to my batchmates, who played an essential role along the journey as we were mutually engaged in various challenges, cheer each other in these challenging times, and all the fun we had in the last two years.

In pursuing this research project, nobody has been more important to me other than my family members. I am incredibly grateful to my parents for their love, guidance, care, and sacrifices for educating and preparing me for my future. They are the ultimate role models who stood by me in my entire academic career. Most importantly, loving thanks to my younger brother, who bestowed annoying and lighter moments, motivated me to accomplish my research project.

Finally, my thanks go to all the people who were instrumental in completing the research work directly or indirectly.

Panchal Vivek

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Vadodara most polluted industrial cluster as per National Green Tribunal (NGT)

Image credits: Our Vadodara, 2020

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Abstract ‘Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.’ This observation by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reflects that the current warming trend is significant because most of it is highly probable (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the consequence of human activity since the mid-twentieth century. Climate change is here, a global phenomenon affecting the lives across the world that is proceeding at an unprecedented rate over decades to millennia. The impact of climate change is most evident in rising surface temperatures and increasing frequency and intensity of disasters, including floods, droughts, cyclones, and forest fires. The economic losses from disasters peaked at over $300 billion in 2017. Floods, droughts, superstorms, fires, and rising seas are hitting the poorest and most vulnerable hardest, while efforts to prepare for and manage these risks – although frequently both innovative and effective – are failing to match the scale and speed of adaptation required. Since Climate change is making humanitarian work harder, less predictable, and more complex, the limitations in the enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change can restrict the availability of quantitative insights into the climate-induced vulnerabilities to the phenomenon. This is why addressing the vulnerability to the possible impacts of climate change at the city level is a major concern of this research.

The key objective of this study is to identify the areas in Vadodara city that are most vulnerable to heatwave and flood hazard through a conceptualize framework for vulnerability assessment, thereby assessing climate resilience. Additionally, the study also mapped the vulnerable areas based on the various framework parameters, which are particularly affected by conditions prone to heatwave and flooding and can be a useful tool for determining the vulnerability mapping of the city spatially. Assessing the city's vulnerability to climatic hazards provides information for identifying measures to adapt to climate change impacts. The findings of this study will be valuable to practitioners and decision-makers to identify the most vulnerable areas due to heatwave-flood hazards and their consequences on sectors and social groups. In turn, to mitigate the vulnerability, the research strives for climate change adaptation actions targeted at specified contexts that can be developed and implemented to build the resilience and liveability of the built environment.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Table of contents Undertaking ................................................................................................................... i Certificate ................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................ v Abstract

.................................................................................................................... ix

Table of contents ......................................................................................................... xi List of figures ............................................................................................................. xiv List of Tables .............................................................................................................. xv List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................ xvi Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1

Background of the study ............................................................................. 1

1.2

The rationale of the study............................................................................ 3

1.3

Statement of the problem ............................................................................ 3

1.4

Scope of the study ....................................................................................... 3

1.5

Research questions ...................................................................................... 3

1.6

Research objectives ..................................................................................... 4

1.7

Research hypothesis .................................................................................... 4

1.8

Tentative chapaterization ............................................................................ 4

1.9

Definition of terms ...................................................................................... 5

Chapter 2 Literature review....................................................................................... 6 2.1

How to assess climate vulnerability ............................................................ 7

2.2

Climate vulnerability assessment approach ................................................ 9

2.3

Climate vulnerability assessment framework ........................................... 11

2.4

Climate vulnerability assessment outputs ................................................. 13 2.4.1

Climate vulnerability report ........................................................ 13

2.4.2

Climate vulnerability index ........................................................ 14

xi

2.5

2.4.3

Climate vulnerability qualitative ranking ................................... 14

2.4.4

Climate vulnerability maps ......................................................... 14

Climate vulnerability assessment indicators ............................................. 16

Chapter 3 Research design ....................................................................................... 20 3.1

Research Methodology ............................................................................. 20

3.2

Data collection .......................................................................................... 21

3.3

Research work plan ................................................................................... 21

3.4

Research tools ........................................................................................... 21

3.5

Limitations of the study ............................................................................ 22

Chapter 4 Vadodara city profile .............................................................................. 24 4.1

Demography .............................................................................................. 24

4.2

Linkages and Regional setup .................................................................... 26

4.3

Urban Land use Land cover ...................................................................... 27

4.4

Environmental Aspects ............................................................................. 31

4.5

Climatic Hazard ........................................................................................ 31 4.5.1

Heat wave ................................................................................... 31

4.5.2

Urban flooding ............................................................................ 32

Chapter 5 Assessing current vulnerability.............................................................. 34

xii

5.1

Selection of spatial scale for assessing vulnerability ................................ 34

5.2

Normalization of indicators ...................................................................... 34

5.3

Assigning weights to indicators ................................................................ 35

5.4

Aggregation of indicators and development of vulnerability index ......... 36

5.5

Representation of vulnerability in spatial maps, vulnerability index and

profile

................................................................................................................... 36

5.6

Heat vulnerability profile .......................................................................... 37

5.7

Flood vulnerability profile ........................................................................ 39

5.8

Assessing key indicators for vulnerability index ...................................... 42

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

5.8.1

Urban built-up (Factor 1) ............................................................ 42

5.8.2

Land surface temperature (Factor 2) ........................................... 44

5.8.3

Population density (Factor 3) ...................................................... 47

5.8.4

Robust protective infrastructure (Factor 4) ................................. 49

5.8.5

UPHC population outreach (Factor 5) ........................................ 53

5.8.6

Water logging incidents (Factor 6) ............................................. 56

5.9

Heat vulnerability index ............................................................................ 59

5.10

Flood vulnerability index .......................................................................... 61

5.11

Qualitative vulnerability ranking .............................................................. 63

5.12

Summary, conclusion and forward ........................................................... 64

Chapter 6 Toward Resilience: Climate change adaptation actions ...................... 65 6.1

Heatwave mitigation measures ................................................................. 65

6.2

Urban Flooding mitigation measures ........................................................ 66

References ................................................................................................................... 67

xiii

List of figures Figure 1.1: Global Climate Risk Index .......................................................................... 1 Figure 2.1: Components of climate vulnerability (a) ..................................................... 8 Figure 2.2: Components of climate vulnerability (b)..................................................... 8 Figure 2.3: Impact of climate change and vulnerability components ............................ 9 Figure 2.4: Vulnerability assessment approach ........................................................... 10 Figure 2.5: Vulnerability assessment Top-down and Bottom-Down approach ........... 10 Figure 2.6: Vulnerability assessment frameworks ....................................................... 12 Figure 2.7: ARUP City Resilience Index (adopted for study) ..................................... 12 Figure 2.8: Case study example of climate vulnerability spatial mapping .................. 15 Figure 3.1: Research timeline ...................................................................................... 21 Figure 4.1: Vadodara ward wise map .......................................................................... 24 Figure 4.2: Vadodara linkages and regional setup diagram ......................................... 26 Figure 4.3: LULC map, 2020 ....................................................................................... 28 Figure 4.4: LULC map, 2010 ....................................................................................... 29 Figure 4.5: LULC map, 2000 ....................................................................................... 30 Figure 4.6: Vadodara rainfall details ........................................................................... 33 Figure 5.1: Maximum Temperatures (30 years analysed data).................................... 37 Figure 5.2: Precipitation amounts (30 years analysed data) ........................................ 39 Figure 5.3: Average temperatures and precipitation (30 years analysed data) ............ 41 Figure 5.4: Urban built-up map ................................................................................... 43 Figure 5.5: Land surface temperature .......................................................................... 45 Figure 5.6: NDVI index ............................................................................................... 46 Figure 5.7: Population density map ............................................................................. 48 Figure 5.8: City green cover map ................................................................................ 50 Figure 5.9: Per capita green space map ....................................................................... 52 Figure 5.10: UPHC buffer map.................................................................................... 54 Figure 5.11: UPHC population outreach map.............................................................. 55 Figure 5.12: Water logging incidents map ................................................................... 57 Figure 5.13: Flood shelter map .................................................................................... 58 Figure 5.15: Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) map ...................................................... 60 Figure 5.14: Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) map ..................................................... 62

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

List of Tables Table 1.1: Climate Risk Index (CRI) of the 10 most affected countries ....................... 2 Table 2.1: Summary of literature review ....................................................................... 7 Table 2.2: Summary of literature review ..................................................................... 13 Table 2.3: Case study example of aggregated vulnerability index and ranking of blocks based on equal weights ................................................................................................ 14 Table 2.4: Case study example of climate vulnerability quantitative ranking ............. 15 Table 2.4: Advantages and Disadvantage of vulnerability assessment outputs........... 16 Table 2.6: Qualitative and Qualitative vulnerability indicators .................................. 18 Table 3.1: Research Methodology .............................................................................. 20 Table 4.1: Vadodara ward wise composition .............................................................. 25 Table 4.2: Vadodara population and growth rate........................................................ 25 Table 4.3: Vadodara city temperature and heat wave occurrence .............................. 32 Table 5.1: Normalization of indicators ....................................................................... 35 Table 5.2: Assessing weights to indicators ................................................................. 36 Table 5.3: Heat vulnerability profile ........................................................................... 39 Table 5.4: Flood vulnerability profile ......................................................................... 41 Table 5.5: Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI)................................................................. 59 Table 5.6: Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) ............................................................... 61 Table 5.6: Qualitative vulnerability ranking ............................................................... 63

xv

List of Abbreviations CDMP: City Disaster Management Plan CPHEEO: Central Public Health & Environmental Engineering Organisation CRI: Climate Risk Index DDMP: District Disaster Management Plan DFID: Department for International Development FVI: Flood Vulnerability Index GIS: Geographical Information Centre GIZ: The German Agency for International Cooperation GSFC: Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited HVI: Heat Vulnerability Index IMD: Indian Meteorological Department IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCL: Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Limited LST: Land Surface Temperature LULC: Land Use Land Cover MoUD: Ministry of Urban Development NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NIUA: National Institute of Urban Affairs UHI: Urban Heat Island UPHC: Urban Primary Health Centre VI: Vulnerability Index VMC: Vadodara Municipal Corporation WHO: World Health Organization

xvi

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

1

Introduction

1.1 Background of the study Climate change is one of the most pressing issues confronting humanity and sustainable development today, affecting people in developed and developing countries. The negative consequences of climate change on ecosystems will increase the rate of their occurrence as well as the degree of their impacts on the built environment during this century and beyond. This leads to less availability of natural resources, natural disasters more often, people's health at risk, disappearing biodiversity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001, developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed nations. In contrast, as per a special report by IPCC in October 2018, global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C - 2°C between 2030 and 2052, which will worsen the risks of climatic hazards in the cities.

Source: Germanwatch and Munich Re NatCatSERVICE Figure 1.1: Global Climate Risk Index

Indian cities are vulnerable to climate change as the experts have warned that temperature rise will cause high precipitation events, heatwave, storms, rising sea levels, drought, and many such. "The Climate Risk Index (CRI) indicates a level of exposure and vulnerability

1

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

to extreme events, which countries should understand as warnings in order to be prepared for more frequent and/or more severe events in the future" (Eckstein et al.,2021).

Source: GCRI, 2021 Table 1.1: Climate Risk Index (CRI) of the 10 most affected countries

India stood seventh amongst the most climate-affected country in 2019. In 2019 the country witnesses the floods caused by the intense monsoon season affected 11.8 million people with an estimated economic loss of US$ 10.1 billion states (AON, 2019); and eight tropical cyclones, including the worst Fani, affected 28 million people causing an economic loss of US$ 8.1 billion (AON, 2020). While the heatwaves are responsible for the highest number of deaths after floods in India, caused 22562 deaths from 1992 to 2015 across various states (IMD). Due to this magnitude, there is an urgent need for the cities to address the impacts of climate change and vulnerability to minimize its implications on the economy, properties, and human health and wellbeing and make sure that we are able to adapt to climate change and build resilience for a better future.

2

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

1.2 The rationale of the study Climate variability affects communities the most, as they lack natural defense against it, making them more susceptible to these natural phenomena. Until the early 2000s, Gujarat had exposure to a very different sense of its environmental vulnerabilities caused by drought, flood, cyclone, and earthquakes. Of these, the most significant exposure was to droughts to which the state tried to keep itself drought-proof. Since then, Gujarat has been adversely affected by climate change as the frequency and intensity of extreme onset events such as flash floods and heatwaves are rising. However, the state claimed to be the leader in addressing climate catastrophes. It was the first to set up a climate change department, and its cities Ahmedabad had a road map for heatwaves, and Surat had a blueprint for tackling floods. But today, despite these measures, most of the cities are struggling to thrive for climate change preparedness to minimize its shocks and stresses.

Vadodara, the third-largest and one of the state's fastest-growing cities, is also prone to multi-hazards. The city witnesses the impact of major floods once every three years, the most recent being in 2013, 2014, and 2019 (DDMP, 2018). The days are getting hotter in Vadodara as the city was gripped by intense heatwaves and registered a maximum temperature of 44°C for April in 2019 (TOI). The decadal frequency change in a heatwave was also observed and experienced severely in 2002, 2004, and 2010. The increased occurrences and severity of flash floods and extreme heat temperature in the city is an alarming call for the city officials and organizations to undertake appropriate preventive measures and build a resilient climate city.

1.3 Statement of the problem Vadodara, one of the country's smart cities, recently prepared a dedicated Heat Wave Action Plan and Monsoon Action Plan in 2020 that lacks comprehensive vulnerability assessment and multiple facets of climate change adaptation measures.

1.4 Scope of the study The study limits its coverage to the administrative areas of Vadodara city only. The purpose is to carry out climate vulnerability to determine to what extent the city's neighborhoods are vulnerable to heatwave and flash floods by mapping them and recommending measures to improve the climate resilience performance of the city. The 3

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

information required will be collected through quantitative & qualitative data with the assistance of city officials and stakeholders.

1.5 Research questions The starting point for the research questions comes from the insight background knowledge of the study undertaking. It may help to overcome the gaps identified during the research. The questions framed in line with the study are: 1. What are the key climate-induced vulnerabilities that likely determine risks to Vadodara?

2. What type of approach best mitigates the vulnerabilities of the affected areas?

1.6 Research objectives In considering the future perspective of climate anomalies in the city and the study aim to examine the climate vulnerability and resilience of the present development planning, the outlined objectives are: 1. A critical review of vulnerability/resilience framework and their assessment methodologies.

2. Identify the most vulnerable areas due to heat and flood hazards in the city.

3. Develop climate change adaptation actions to mitigate heat and flood vulnerabilities to make the neighbourhoods climate-resilient.

1.7 Research hypothesis The rising heat temperature and high precipitation events result from rapid urbanization and industrialization with dropping urban green and blue infrastructure.

1.8 Tentative chapaterization The physical structure of the report has been divided into six chapters which are: Chapter 1: Introduction – Provides background and context of the study, statement of the problem and rationale, questions, objectives, and scope of the study, the definition of the terms, and tentative chapterization

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Chapter 2: Literature Review – Presents insight into current knowledge, major themes, concepts, and trends related to the study and summarizes findings of it in order to develop a vulnerability framework and assessment approach.

Chapter 3: Research Design – Describes study hypothesis, methodology, data collection and research tools, research work plan, and limitations.

Chapter 4: City Profile – Overview about the city geography, demography, spatial growth & urban land use and climate hazard profile Chapter 5: Vulnerability Assessment – Describes the process used to assess the city's vulnerability to heat and flood hazards to identify the most vulnerable areas.

Chapter 6: Climate Change Adaptation Actions – Summarizes key findings of the assessment and presents climate change adaptation measures to mitigate vulnerabilities to build resilience.

1.9 Definition of terms Climate Change: “A change in the climate that persists for decades or longer, arising from natural causes or human activity” (IPCC, 2000).

Climate variability: “Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability)” (IPCC, 2000).

Vulnerability: “is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is EXPOSED, its SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE CAPACITY.” (IPCC, 2000).

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

2

Literature review

The research scrutinized a broad range of literature review to deeper understand the current scenario, methodological lapses, and realistic depictions about the subject matter. To comprehend the wide reach of climate change context on a global and national scale, extensive analysis of research papers, reports, guidelines, and good practices assists in conceptualizing a climate vulnerability framework, indicators, approach, and methodology to determine the pathway for assessing the climate vulnerability of the case city. For instance, the Climate-Smart Cities assessment framework by NIUA for urban sectors such as Green Buildings, Green Cover and Biodiversity, Air Quality, Water Management, and Waste Management guides to create a climate vulnerability index and profile. Likewise, pieces of literature are listed and summarized in a similar fashion, (refer table 2.1). In addition, the findings will further guide through practical ways to overcome the challenges, existing disparities, and bridging the gaps in the hope that it will illuminate how the city makes its way towards resilience.

Sr. No.

1 2

Institution

4

Book NIUA & CapaCITIES ADB

5

TARU

3

6

7 8 9

ICLEI United Nations

13

GIZ & United Nations

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

CapaCITIES & ICLEI

23 24 25

USAID GermanWatch ISPRA

26

IHCAP

27

United Nations

6 28 29

OECD

Sectors

Output

Year

Hazard, Infrastructure, Governance Socio-Economic

Profile

2013

2019

URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE A Synopsis Surat and Indore City Resilience Strategy

2014 Urbanization, Poverty, Climate Conditions Energy and Green Buildings, Urban Planning, Green Cover and Biodiversity, (Mobility and Air Quality, Water Management, and Waste Management.

Hazard, Infrastructure, Governance Socio-Economic

2011

Index and Profile

2020

Profile

2014 2019

Agriculture, Water Resource, Forest and Biodiversity, Health, Urban Development

2014

MAINSTREAMING URBAN RESILIENCE Lessons from Indian Cities ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Assessing and Monitoring Climate Resilience From Theoretical Considerations to Practically Applicable Tools – A Discussion Paper

GIZ & MOEFCC, A Framework for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments GoI CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR THE INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION USING A COMMON IHCAP FRAMEWORK USAID CLIMATE RISK PROFILE INDIA Linkoping University Climate vulnerability assessment methodology DESIGNING CLIMATE VULNERABILITY USAID ASSESSMENTS Burohappold Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Engineering Methodology Lami Town, Fiji – Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment UN Habitat Makerere University City Vulnerability Assessment Kampala

22

Methodology

2019

GoG (TERI & GIZ) Gujarat State Action Plan NIUA & TERI

Approach

Climate Resilient Cities in India

IRADE, ACCCRN, Vulnerability profiling of cities A framework for climateRockefeller resilient urban development in India Foundation & iied RESILIENT CITIES, THRIVING CITIES: THE ICLEI EVOLUTION OF URBAN RESILIENCE

10

Framework

Urban Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries

NIUA & Smart City CLIMATE SMART CITIES Assessment Framework 2.0

11 12

14

Document

Climate Resilient Urban Development: Vulnerability Profiles IRADE & ACCCRN of 20 Indian Cities

Climate Resilient Cities Action Plan - Rajkot & Udaipur

2020 2018 2015 Social, Ecological, Economic, Physical Institutional

2014 2014 2018 2017 2018

Agriculture

2018 2020

Buildings Solid Waste Transport Street Light Water Sewage

Map Map

2013 2017

Profile

2017-18

Climate Vulnerability Assessment GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2021 Climate change vulnerability and risk Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assessment: Framework, Methods and Guidelines Assessing climate change impacts and vulnerability making informed adaptation decisions Harmonising Climate Risk Management: Adaptation Screening and Assessment Tools for Development Cooperation

Linking IPCC AR4 & AR5 frameworks for assessing University of Exeter, vulnerability and risk to climate change in the Indian Bengal UK Delta

2016 2021 2020 2018 2011 2011 Climate Social Economics Infrastructure Climatological Variables

Profile

2020

21

Makerere University City Vulnerability Assessment Kampala

22

CapaCITIES & ICLEI

23 24 25

USAID GermanWatch ISPRA

Buildings Solid Waste Transport Street Light Water Sewage

Climate Resilient Cities Action Plan - Rajkot & Udaipur

Map

2017

Profile

2017-18

Climate Vulnerability Assessment 2016 Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

26

IHCAP

27

United Nations

28

OECD

GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2021 Climate change vulnerability and risk Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assessment: Framework, Methods and Guidelines Assessing climate change impacts and vulnerability making informed adaptation decisions Harmonising Climate Risk Management: Adaptation Screening and Assessment Tools for Development Cooperation

29

Linking IPCC AR4 & AR5 frameworks for assessing University of Exeter, vulnerability and risk to climate change in the Indian Bengal UK Delta

30

Jyoti Parikh (IRADE)

31

Krishna Malakar (IIT Assessing socio-economic vulnerability to climate change: A Bombay) city-level index based approach

2021 2020 2018 2011 2011

Assessment of Vulnerabilities of Indian Cities to Climate Change

Climate Social Economics Infrastructure

Profile

2020

Climatological Variables Topologies Demographics Social Economic

Profile

2011

Socio - Economic

Index

2016

32

Ulka Kelkar (IIS, Bangalore)

Assessing Indian Cities for Vulnerability to Climate Change

Natural, Built, Infrastructure, Social, Human, Governance, Financial Technological

2011

33

Thomas E Downing and Anand Patwardhan

Vulnerability assessment for climate adaptation

Urban Development

2002

Climate Change Assessment Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment, Nauru: Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Connectivity Project

Infrastructure

34 35 36

DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum World Bank and GFDRR

37

GoI and IRADE

38

Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc. and Highland Planning

Qualitative Ranking

2012

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR Climate Vulnerability Assessment: MAKING FIJI CLIMATE RESILIENT RAPID CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF GANGTOK, SIKKIM and SHILLONG, MEGHALAYA Climate Vulnerability Assessment Report City of Rochester, New York SPATIAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS: A REVIEW OF DATA, METHODS, AND ISSUES CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPORT Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

39

USAID

40

USAID

41

IPCC

42

ADB

CLIMATE CHANGE PROFILE OF PAKISTAN

43

EEA

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012

2017

Report

2017

Profile

2018

Report

2018 2014 2016 2014

Social, Habitat, Ecological, Transport, Agriculture

Profile

2017 2012

Source: Author Table 2.1: Summary of literature review

2.1 How to assess climate vulnerability The IPCC (2007) defines vulnerability in the sense of climate change as having three components: exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capability. By connecting potential impacts and adaptive capability, vulnerable regions or sectors can be established. Because of the adaptation capability factor, measuring climate change risk is more complicated than merely assessing the potential impacts of climate change. In the climate change context, exposure relates to “the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations” (IPCC, 2001). The background climate conditions and stimuli1 to which a system works, as well as any changes in those conditions, are referred to as exposure. As a result, exposure is an aspect of susceptibility that encompasses not just the extent to which a system is exposed to major climatic changes, but also the magnitude and length of these variations (Adger, 2006).

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Source: Climate change vulnerability and risk- key concepts, Francesca Giordano Figure 2.1: Components of climate vulnerability (a)

The sensitivity of a system to climate change reflects the “degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct or indirect” (IPCC, 2007). The resilience of a system to climatic factors, as well as the extent to which changes in environment could affect it in its current form, is measured by sensitivity. With an example, the factors that affect the components are described below.

Exposure

Sensitivity

Influence Factors • Different geographical locations can be exposed to different climate hazards as well as different frequencies and intensities.

Example CHANGING CLIMATE HAZARD •

average temperature rise and increased risk of heatwaves, mean sea level rise, increased storms surge heights, coastal flooding and erosion

Adaptive Capacity

Influence Factors • Access and ability to process information • Resources to invest in adaptation • Flexibility of a system to change in response to climate stimuli • Willingness to change and adapt • Ability of species to migrate or for ecosystems to expand into new zones

Influence Factors • Access and ability to process information • Resources to invest in adaptation • Flexibility of a system to change in response to climate stimuli • Willingness to change and adapt • Ability of species to migrate or for ecosystems to expand into new zones

Example

Example

BIODIVERSITY Species with narrow environmental tolerance Species dependent on specific environmental triggers TOURISM Percentage of population COASTAL AREAS

INCOME INDICATORS (E.G. GDP) Education statistics

annually affected by extreme weather events

Availability (or lack) of data

Geomorphological coastal types

Appropriate emergency response

Source: Climate change vulnerability and risk- key concepts, Francesca Giordano Figure 2.2: Components of climate vulnerability (b)

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

The IPCC (2007) defines adaptive capacity as the ability (or potential) of a system to adjust successfully to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to: (i) moderate potential damages; (ii) to take advantage of opportunities; and/or (iii) to cope with the consequences (IPCC, 2007). Assets with a high adaptation capacity but low sensitivity/exposure can tolerate further impacts and, as a result, have a lower overall susceptibility, and vice versa.

Source: Climate change vulnerability and risk- key concepts, Francesca Giordano Figure 2.3: Impact of climate change and vulnerability components

Assessing vulnerability does not mean calculating a certain number or testing something with a certain instrument (there is no such thing as a vulnerometer), but rather identifying a situation or state based on a collection of related variables or components.

2.2 Climate vulnerability assessment approach Exposure, sensitivity (potential impacts), and adaptive capability findings can all be combined to assess how and where a population is vulnerable to climate change. Climate vulnerability can be measured using qualitative methods such as stakeholder participation, meetings, interviews, and questionnaires, as well as quantitative methods such as metrics, indexes, and mapsreport by IPCC in October 2018, global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C - 2°C between 2030 and 2052, which will worsen the risks of climatic hazards in the cities.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Source: Climate change vulnerability and risk- key concepts, Francesca Giordano Figure 2.4: Vulnerability assessment approach

Subject Matter, spatial scale, and evaluation chronology are the three categories that can be used to categorize risk evaluations. Top-Down Approaches and Bottom-Up Approaches are two types of vulnerability evaluation systems. Top-down approaches are primarily concerned with the biophysical effects of climate change, but they say nothing about why, who, and how people are affected. Bottom-up methods, on the other hand, mostly provide knowledge about various social groups' vulnerability.

Source: Climate change vulnerability and risk- key concepts, Francesca Giordano Figure 2.5: Vulnerability assessment Top-down and Bottom-Down approach

The qualitative vulnerability assessment can be done in the form of a matrix, with the possible effect of climate change measured by exposure, resilience, and adaptive capacity at low, medium, and high levels of vulnerability. Although spatial mapping can be used to express the quantitative vulnerability evaluation. Qualitative assessments are not often 10

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

less accurate or legitimate than quantitative assessments: these approaches yield findings that are difficult to compare or even verify for accuracy, but they are reliable and address certain questions that quantitative measures cannot by involving key stakeholders.

Policymakers often request quantitative evaluations since they are thought to be more accurate than qualitative ones because they can be comparable, leave less space for misinterpretation, and are simple to communicate.

2.3 Climate vulnerability assessment framework Through literature summary seven climate vulnerability assessment frameworks were identified. The most commonly used framework is IPCC SREX framework which separates outs exposure and includes vulnerability as a separate component that combines the sensitivity and adaptive capacity elements. The other known frameworks are Hazard, Infrastructure, Governance and Socio-Economic framework, DFID sustainable livelihood framework, extended vulnerability framework, Climate change vulnerability framework by GIZ and Climate Smart City Assessment framework 2.0 by NIUA. The Assessment Framework 2.0 is based on an integrated scoring system which could help evaluate cities across various sectors. The Extended Vulnerability Framework introduces the vulnerability and sustainability of based on synergy between the human and biophysical subsystems with data and model limitations. SREX Framework assess vulnerability on climatic, environmental, and human factors that can lead to impacts and disasters. vulnerability is not well accounted for type of hazards studied. Climate Smart City Assessment Framework_2.0 Help cities to improve their performance standards in accordance with some of the international guidelines in creating green, sustainable and resilient urban habitats. The City Resilience Index, created by Arup with support from the Rockefeller Foundation, was used in this study as it provides a detailed, technically sound, and globally applicable basis for measuring city resilience. It consists of 52 metrics that are evaluated using a combination of qualitative and quantitative data and answers to 156 questions. The answers are compiled and graphed in relation to the Framework's 12 objectives (or indices). The Index will measure relative performance over time rather than comparison between cities (refer figure 2.7). It will provide a common basis of measurement and assessment to better facilitate dialogue and knowledge sharing between cities.

11

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara HIGS Framework

SREX Framework

Source: ESPON Climate Project

EXTENDED Vulnerability Framework

Source: IPCC 2014

DFID SL Framework

Source: DFID Sustainable Livelihood Presentation

Source: Turner et al., 2003

Source: IPCC, EPSON, DFID & Turner et.al, 2003 Figure 2.6: Vulnerability assessment frameworks

Source: ARUP Figure 2.7: ARUP City Resilience Index (adopted for study) 12

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Sr. No. 1

Framework EXTENDED VULNERABILITY FRAMEWORK

2

MOVE

3

THE DFID SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS FRAMEWORK

4

SREX FRAMEWORK

5

6

Introduction The vulnerability and sustainability of which are predicated on synergy between the human and biophysical subsystems.

Sectors Bio-physical

Limitations Data and model limitations render it difficult to implement these frameworks, which are characterized by complex spatiotemporal dimensions and scales.

Lack of resilience or societal response An improved conceptualization of the capacity is determined by limitations in multi-faceted nature of vulnerability, Physical, Social, terms of access to and mobilization of the accounting for key causal factors such as Ecological, Economic, resources of a community or a socialexposure, susceptibility, lack of Cultural and Institutional ecological system in responding to an resilience identified hazard.

Helps to overcome moments of stress and/or crisis, and able to maintain or Social, Human, Natural, The process did not include participation of even improve current and future skills stakeholders, nor fieldwork Financial, Physical and assets without exploiting natural resources The assessment concerns the interaction Vulnerability is not well accounted for type of climatic, environmental, and human Disaster Risk of hazards studied, as most studies focus factors that can lead to impacts and on cyclones disasters

CLIMATE SMART CITY ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK_2.0

Energy and Green Help cities to improve their performance Buildings, Urban standards in accordance with some of Planning, Green Cover the international guidelines in creating and Biodiversity, green, sustainable and resilient urban Mobility and Air Quality, habitats.

Water Management, and Waste Management

HIGS

Analyse the vulnerability of Indian cities, Hazards, Infrastructure, using four sets of variables which Governance and Sociohighlight the vulnerable features of a city. These can then guide action towards Economic building resilience.

N.A

This framework does not address the climate data problem, it helps in understanding the current status of the services and condition of the city infrastructure

This framework was prepared to provide

7

A FRAMEWORK FOR decisionmakers and adaptation CLIMATE CHANGE implementers such as (local) government officials, development VULNERABILITY experts and civil society representatives ASSESSMENTS (BY with a structured approach and a sourcebook for assessing vulnerability to GIZ)

Natural Resources, Socio Economic, Environmental issues and development issues

N.A

climate change.

Source: Author Table 2.2: Summary of literature review

2.4 Climate vulnerability assessment outputs Multiple outputs such as reports, vulnerability indexes, qualitative rankings, maps, and profiles result from the examination of various vulnerability frameworks. These results aren't always independent. For example, mapped outcomes from an agriculture model may be displayed alongside a vulnerability index that accounts for the agricultural system's adaptive capacity in order to better understand possible impacts and the community's ability to resolve them.

2.4.1

Climate vulnerability report

It compiles data from a variety of sources. A well-known format that can attract a large audience. However, if adequate outreach is not performed, it can be lengthy, technical, and difficult to follow, and therefore not used effectively.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

2.4.2

Climate vulnerability index

A vulnerability index is a formula that calculates vulnerability based on a quantitative analysis of metrics that take into account exposure (e.g., position in a flood plain), sensitivity (e.g., asset condition), and adaptive potential (e.g., asset condition) (e.g., access to resources). A vulnerability index can be used to measure current conditions and how they evolve over time, as well as to compare the vulnerability of various industries or jurisdictions. It's possible that it's missing important relationships between variables that influence vulnerability.

Source: Esteves et.al., 2016 Table 2.3: Case study example of aggregated vulnerability index and ranking of blocks based on equal weights

2.4.3

Climate vulnerability qualitative ranking

Many vulnerabilities use rating or prioritization to classify the most vulnerable systems or inputs. These rankings or prioritizations may be focused on quantitative data, qualitative data, expert opinion, or a combination of these factors. They are usually categorical in nature (for example, high/medium/low or on a scale of 1–5). However, it fails to convey complex or less clear aspects of vulnerability (refer table 2.4).

2.4.4

Climate vulnerability maps

Vulnerability maps can help determine and communicate the spatial essence of vulnerability, as well as shifts in spatial aspects over time. The inputs for maps can range from qualitative stakeholder expertise to quantitative Geographic Information System (GIS) analytics. However, GIS-based maps necessitate technical expertise, financial capital, and vast volumes of data (refer figure 2.8).

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Source: Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool Table 2.4: Case study example of climate vulnerability quantitative ranking

Source: USAID, 2014 Figure 2.8: Case study example of climate vulnerability spatial mapping

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

TYPE

REPORT

MAIN USES

ADVANTAGES

DISADVANTAGES

Can be long, technical, hard to follow and thus Summarize findings from Familiar format, can reach not used effectively if sufficient outreach is not various methods a wide audience conducted

Prioritize locations or systems based on the general magnitude of vulnerability

Easily understandable (e.g., using colour coding or scores) Helpful for comparing relative vulnerabilities

May not include key relationships between variables that affect vulnerability Does not directly imply the nature of adaptations that would be helpful The relationships between the indicators and vulnerability is not always clear

QUALITATIVE RANKING (E.G., HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW)

Prioritize vulnerabilities

Easily understandable Useful for prioritizing action

Does not communicate complex or less obvious aspects of vulnerability well May be open to interpretation and therefore contain uncertainties Does not directly imply the nature of adaptations that would be helpful

MAPS

Visually convey the spatial character of vulnerability and/or exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity

Helpful for understanding spatial relationships Useful for facilitating group discussion Useful for generating stakeholder support through co-development of a map

GIS-based maps require technical knowledge, monetary resources, and large amounts of data Hand-drawn or qualitative maps may not be reliable enough to inform decisions Spatial complexity may not communicate significant underlying uncertainties Does not imply the nature of adaptations that would be helpful

VULNERABILITY INDEX

PROFILES

Helpful for demonstrating relative differences among Specific formats of graphics may not Compare different communicate well with all stakeholders May not the components of elements of vulnerability depict all the contextual vulnerability for a single input or Useful for summarizing information that is important for compare the vulnerability complex information into decision-making of different inputs Can be unclear and too complex a simple statement or visual graphic

Source: USAID, 2014 Table 2.5: Advantages and Disadvantage of vulnerability assessment outputs

2.5 Climate vulnerability assessment indicators The vulnerability assessment indicators for heatwave and flood hazard were constructed from the ARUP City Resilience Index and Centers for Disease Control & Prevention to carry out vulnerability assessment. This constructed vulnerability framework would further lead to multiple outputs like vulnerability index, qualitative ranking, spatial mapping, and vulnerability profile of the case city with the set of vulnerability indicators.

These indicators are then bifurcated based on qualitative and quantitative assessment, type of outputs and the source of data to be gathered.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Heatwave

Flooding

Vulnerability Indices Climate Change Dimension

Hazard

Chronic Stresses

Vulnerability Measure Quantitative

Population density

Number of people per unit area that may be greater risk for heat-related health effects and exposed to flooding events

Urban Built-up

Estimates the level of urbanization within a particular area of the city

Land Surface Temperature

Estimates how hot the surface of land would feel in a particular location of the city

Historical Temperature

Number of extreme heat days and the monthly estimates of heat by the city.

● Water Robust protective Scarcity infrastructure (Green ● Poor Air cover) Quality ● High Unemployment ●Homelessness Health Infrastructure ● Changing (Urban Primary Demographics Health Centres) ● Lack of Social Cohesion ● Aging Environment Infrastructure Heatwave/ Heat Stress ● Aging , Health & Flooding Population Emergency / Well Being Hospitalization ● Poverty, Inequity and Food Scarcity ● Species Extinction Heat-Related ● Inefficient Mortality Public Transportation System ●Environmental Flexible Degradation infrastructure (Flood Drought

Shelter)

Vulnerability Scale ( Output Reference Type)

Integrated, forward-looking and robust network of protective infrastructure that reduces vulnerability and exposure of citizens and critical assets.

Data Source

Census

Ward Level (Map)

City Level (Profile)

Urban Local Body/ GIS

Adopted from ARUP Resilience Index

GIS

GSDMA

Ward Level (Map)

Urban Local Body

City Level (Profile)

Urban Local Body/ Emergency Department (108)

Number of centres providing health services to the citizens within the designated areas of the city.

Estimates the number and rate of hospitalizations for heat stress. It includes all cases where heat stress is listed as a primary or other diagnosis.

Data from death certificates to evaluate deaths that have identified heat as an underlying or contributing cause.

Critical services within the city are supported by diverse and robust infrastructure, which has been appropriately planned and delivered.

Urban Local Body/ GSDMA Ward Level (Map)

Center for Disease Control and Urban Local Prevention Body/ GSDMA/ Census

Robust protective infrastructure (Stormwater Network)

Integrated, forward-looking and robust network of protective infrastructure that reduces vulnerability and exposure of citizens and critical assets.

Historical Precipitation

Number of extreme precipitation days and the monthly estimates of precipitation by the city.

City Level (Profile)

Urban Local Body/ GSDMA/ IMD

Waterlogging Incidents

Estimates the number of waterlogged incidents in the specific area of the city and the population and exposure of citizens

Ward Level (Map)

Urban Local Body/ GSDMA

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Climate Change Dimension

Hazard Chronic Stresses

Vulnerability Indices Qualitative

Adequate access to quality healthcare

Adequate and inclusive access to quality general healthcare.

Effectively managed protective ecosystems

Well-developed understanding and acknowledgement of the role of ecosystems in providing physical protection to the city.

Comprehensive hazard ● Water Scarcity monitoring, exposure mapping and risk ● Poor Air assessment Quality

● High Unemployment ● Homelessness ● Changing Demographics ● Lack of Social Cohesion ● Aging Infrastructure Environment Heatwave/ ● Aging , Health & Flooding Population Well Being ● Poverty, Inequity and Food Scarcity ● Species Extinction ● Inefficient Public Transportation System ●Environmental Degradation Drought

Vulnerability Measure

Diverse and affordable transport networks and effective O & M

Vulnerability Scale (Output Reference Type)

Urban Local Body/ Census

Urban Local Body

Robust systems in place to map the city’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards based on current data.

Effective systems to monitor potential hazards and assess risk.

Diverse and integrated transport networks, providing flexible and affordable travel around the city for all. Effective management of the city’s transport network to provide quality, safe transport.

GSDMA

City Level (Qualitative Ranking)

ARUP Resilience Index

Urban Local Body

Effective and reliable

Reliable emergency communication services that are communications services accessible by all 24X7

Adequate education for all

Affordable, quality education for all.

Urban Local Body

Comprehensive city monitoring & data management

Regular monitoring and analysis of relevant data undertaken to inform city planning and strategies.

Urban Local Body

Source: Author Table 2.6: Qualitative and Qualitative vulnerability indicators

18

Data Source

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Vadodara’s rapid urban growth continue to pollute Vishwamitri and its environs…

Image credits: counterview, 2018 19

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

3

Research design

The chapter determines the nature of the investigation of the study, data collection techniques to be used, the number of individuals to be contacted, and the research timeline.

3.1 Research Methodology The research approach encompasses multiple task components to carry through climate vulnerability assessment and achieve study objectives (refer table 3.1). Objective one, which follows literary task components, like reviewing documents, guidelines, and good practices, analysing climate hazard conditions, vulnerability assessment, frameworks, and approaches through desk research, strengthens the comprehensive knowledge about the topic. Whereas objective two and three primarily follows locale task components.

Objective two comprises adopting a suitable climate resilience framework, identifying vulnerability frameworks, climate-induced vulnerabilities, and data collection by means of stakeholder consultation, perception survey, and desk research to spot the vulnerable areas in the city. In objective three, the data to create a vulnerability index and profiling will be collected through primary research and analysed using quantitative and qualitative assessment methods.

Research Objectives

Tasks

•Literature Review ( Reports, Frameworks, Research papers, National and International Guidelines and Good 1.0 A critical review of Practices) vulnerability/resilience framework •Analyse Climate Hazard Conditions at National and and their assessment State Level methodologies.

•Analyse Components for Vulnerability Assessment •Review multiple Climate Vulnerability Assessment Approaches & Frameworks •Adopt Best Suitable Climate Resilience Framework 2.0 Identify the most vulnerable and Identify Indicators for Vulnerability Assessment areas due to heat and flood hazards •Identify Climatic Hazard for Case Cities in the city.

•Data Collection for Identified Indicators •Data Analysis and Gap Identification

3.0 Develop climate change adaptation actions to mitigate heat and flood vulnerabilities to make the neighbourhoods climateresilient.

• Create vulnerability index and profile for case city based on qualitative and quantitative indicators • Propose climate resilience policy inputs or climate vulnerability/ resilience strategies for urban development.

Source: Author Table 3.1: Research Methodology 20

Methods

Desk Research

Desk Research, Stakeholder Consultation and Field Experts Survey (Delphi Technique)

Primary and Secondary Data Collection, Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Later the vulnerability assessment outputs for heatwave and flooding will direct to the develop climate change adaptation measures by virtue of secondary research.

3.2 Data collection The relevant data collection is an essential facet of climate vulnerability assessment. The secondary data collected by means of desk research includes Heat Action Plan, District Disaster Management Plan (DDMP), Monsoon Action Plan, research and dissertation papers, reports, media articles, and information from government websites. In contrast, the primary data was collected in the form of documents and information provision through consultation with field experts and city officials.

3.3 Research work plan Together with the timeline, the outline research activities will guide to create an effective research action plan which is split substantially into five stages.

Week 1-4

Week 5-8

Literature Review

Case City Profiling

Climate Change related terminologies

Understand the local climate

Climate Resilience Framework

Identify Key Climate Vulnerabilities

Week 9-12

Data Analysis and Interpretation

Data Collection

Primary

Secondary

Data gap identification of impacted urban area and its sectors

Vulnerability Assessment Methodology, Approaches and Framework

Components of Climate Vulnerability & its assessment methods Qualitative Assessment

Quantitative Assessment

Week 13-16

City Climate Vulnerability Profile: Global and National Good Practices

Create City Vulnerability Profile ( Based on adopted framework)

Adopt Suitable Climate Vulnerability Framework for Case City

Source: Author Figure 3.1: Research timeline

3.4 Research tools To gather more information about the study and get insight into the ground reality, following research tools were used:

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Primary Research and Desk research / Secondary research: Primary research involves the collection of data interacting with field professionals in person from departments of Vadodara Municipal Corporation, while desk research or secondary research revolves around collecting information through reliable internet sources.

Perception Survey/ Experts Opinion: The survey was floated using the Delphi technique through a google form to determine the priority ranking of the vulnerability indicators based on the Likert scale. A minimum of ten responses was targeted to distribute the weightage amongst the vulnerability indicators to develop a vulnerability index.

Quantitative Assessment: The data collected from primary and secondary sources, analysed, and interpreted in the form of spatial maps and vulnerability index to identify the vulnerable neighbourhoods (wards) of the city.

Qualitative Assessment:

The data collected from primary and secondary sources,

analysed, and interpreted in the form of qualitative vulnerability ranking at the city level.

3.5 Limitations of the study Assessing climate vulnerability can be challenging for a number of reasons. The limitations often come along with the study, existing due to research design or methodology constraints. The ones which may impact the findings of the research are defined below: 1. Obtaining relevant data for different vulnerability parameters is usually tricky, thus complicating the task of vulnerability assessment at the specified context (city level, ward level, or neighbourhood level) 2.

There is limited access to climatic hazard data due to a lack of previous research on the topic and fragmented analysis of exposure to vulnerability in District Disaster Management Plans.

3. In the unprecedented times of the novel coronavirus disease outbreak, the data collections from primary sources departments, city officials, and in-person stakeholder consultation could be challenging to account for strict protocols and guidelines.

4. The suitable resilience framework adopted is put to the test to derive the city's vulnerability assessment outputs, which may not be the case in reality.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Urbanize Vadodara Overview

Image credits: Gujarat Tourism 23

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

4

Vadodara city profile

After Ahmedabad and Surat (the three Gujarat cities with populations of over one million), Vadodara, also known as Baroda, is Gujarat's third most populated city and India's sixteenth most populous city. It is situated on the Vishwamitri waterway southeast of Ahmedabad and is known as Gujarat's Cultural Capital. Vadodara is also a town in Gujarat's province, and it serves as the administrative centre for the district. This region is surrounded by Panchmahal, Dahod (north), Bharuch, Narmada (south), Anand, and Kheda (west).

4.1 Demography Vadodara Municipal Corporation, as part of the Vadodara District, has the district's largest population. The city of Vishmaitri is located on the banks of the Vishmaitri River in central Gujarat, and has a population of approximately 16 lakhs. During the summer, the Vishwamitri also drys up, leaving just a small stream of water. The district lies between the Mahi and Narmada Rivers, on a fertile plain. Each of the city's four zones has three wards.

City Area (Old): 153.75 km² City Area (New): 220.3 km² Population Details : 16,70,806 (2011) 22,32,521 ( 2021)

Source: Author Figure 4.1: Vadodara ward wise map 24

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Source: CDMP, 2020 Table 4.1: Vadodara ward wise composition

The number of inhabitants in Vadodara which was 1,03,790 of every 1901 rose consistently to 1,53,860 out of 1941, with a fall enlisted in the second decade because of starvation and scourges. The increment was for the most part a result of movement from provincial zones other than regular development. In 1951, the populace expanded to 2,11,407, an expansion of 37.90%, which could for the most part be ascribed to the inundation of uprooted people from Pakistan following Independence in 1947. After Independence, Vadodara encountered a fast development in populace as a result of the modern arrangement of the Government of India. The foundation of the Gujarat Refinery during the 1960s, which was trailed by the modern buildings of IPCL and GSFC, offered spray to the development of different other petrol‐based and synthetic businesses nearby the city.

Source: Vadodara Development Plan, 2031 Table 4.2: Vadodara population and growth rate 25

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Therefore, the number of inhabitants in Vadodara rose to 3,09,716 out of 1961, a development pace of 46.50%. This pattern proceeded for the following twenty years that enrolled populaces of 4,67,486 with a development pace of 50.94% in 1971 and 7,34,144 with a development pace of 57.04% in 1981. A change in the modern arrangement of the Government, towards a more adjusted improvement of the district, opened mechanical advancement in close by Ankleshwar, Bharuch and Surat toward the south, prompting a decrease in the pace of development of Vadodara's populace. The education rate was 42.7% for males and only 2.7% for females in 1901. A noteworthy truth is that by 1951 it had expanded to 54.4% for males while for females it had expanded to 32.8%.

4.2 Linkages and Regional setup Vadodara has gotten a significant thriving focus of exchange and industry, in view of its area between Mumbai in the south West and Ahmedabad in the North. The agglomeration is in invaluable situation of the development of the entire Western and North Western passages of the country. This is a test and opportunity as well.

Emphatically connected by rail and street joins, Vadodara is found pretty much in the focal point of the hall connecting the north of the country with the south.

Source: Vadodara Development Plan, 2031 Figure 4.2: Vadodara linkages and regional setup diagram

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Vadodara inside the region being the locale base camp has explicit significance. The metropolitan communities falling in the mechanical belt have been developing at a fast speed, however the other metropolitan places of the region have lower development rate.

4.3 Urban Land use Land cover The Vadodara city land go through break gave an equal portion of land to private purposes. However, the mechanical area has shrunk significantly from 18.02 percent to 4.31 percent, indicating a decline in modern action. Simultaneously, the region under government control has increased to 7%, indicating a move into the assistance zone. The proportion of entertainment land has also decreased by 1.17 percent, from 2.58 percent, and is still well below the national average of 10%. VMC notwithstanding, requirements to zero in on improvements in the riding existence of these streets, the territory under streets is ample, at around 15.35 percent. The TP plots also include reservations for economically more vulnerable segments (EWS), such as TP plot 60, which was approved at the draught stage and saved the Gujarat Housing Board 10,000 to 12,000 homes. The 39 TP proposals include a reservation for EWS lodging of approximately 33.50 hectares, which will be made available upon final approval of the plans. The city of Vadodara was once known as the Garden City. It is home to 62 nurseries as well as a zoo. Sayajibaug is the most popular nursery. Vadodara used to be known for its excellent sporting facilities. Despite the fact that the city's population has nearly doubled in the last 30 years, the sporting offices have not expanded in proportion. The growing urbanization of the world, as well as the need for real lodging and transportation, has resulted in a decrease in urban greenery and water bodies. A similar situation occurs with water bodies, which have shrunk dramatically from 4.38 square kilometers in 1991 to 2.77 square kilometers in 2005, causing concern. The increase in ghetto population has also resulted in an increase in illegal infringements on public and open spaces, privately owned property, and sporting grounds. If this trend continues, for example, if sporting facilities, water sources, and greenery decline, the city would deteriorate both in terms of personal satisfaction and in terms of ecological boundaries. It is accordingly basic to find some kind of harmony by finding a way proper way to restore the greenery and reenergize the water groups of the city. The city’s urbanization growth after 2010 which became extremely rapid may be the reason of high infrastructure investment in the fringe areas of the eastern and southern zone of the city (refer figure 4.3, 4.4 & 4.5).

27

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Urbanized: 62 % Green Cover: 14 %

2020 7

2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

Source: Author Figure 4.3: LULC map, 2020 28

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Urbanized: 48 % Green Cover: 24 %

2010 7

2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

Source: Author Figure 4.4: LULC map, 2010

29

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Urbanized: 40 % Green Cover: 26 %

2000 7

2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

Source: Author Figure 4.5: LULC map, 2000

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

4.4 Environmental Aspects A city's climate is a vital determinant of its residents' wellbeing and, as a result, productivity. Due to population growth, industrialization, urbanisation, and increased transportation, the issue of urban pollution has become a major concern in recent decades. The quality of the city's water and air determines its pollution level. The Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) is in charge of water (surface and ground) and air quality monitoring.

4.5 Climatic Hazard Vadodara city is susceptible to multi hazards and knowledgeable about & witnessed too on many occasions in past. Past few decades the city faces range of hazards because of that traditional life vogue has been disturbed throughout that point amount. Natural surroundings / Atmosphere gets affected because of sure reasonably chemical hazards chiefly of commercial areas and its surroundings wherever the drinkable and also the water used for farming get contaminated. It has knowledgeable about the consequences of cyclone in 1998 because of that most of space has been affected, chiefly temporary institutions like slums, low lying areas, tree uprooting, etc. that hindered routine life. Due to the consequences of devastating earthquake of the year 2001, panic condition has been seen throughout town, majorly the residents of the high-rise buildings have knowledgeable about the jolt of the quake, minor cracks have been notified in buildings and different structural institutions. town faces the impact of major floods once in each 3-year fundamental quantity. Majorly town was severely suffering from the floods of 1978, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014 and 2019; virtually the full Vadodara district was affected because of these hazards. because of road and rail accidents, major life losse s have been determined in most of the urban a part of the district from wherever the National high ways that / State high ways that / categorical approach and Railway lines passes through.

4.5.1

Heat wave

A heat wave is a situation in which the temperature of an area rises to the point that it causes physiological stress and, as a result, human life is lost. A heat wave is described as a period of three days or more where the average temperature at a grid point is 3 degrees Celsius or near to it. The World Meteorological Organization describes a wave as a period 31

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

of 5 or more days during which the daily maximum temperature exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 degrees Celsius. A wave condition occurs when the highest temperature in either location remains at 45° C for two days in a row. If the ambient temperature remains at 37° C, the frame will not be damaged.

Source: IMD Table 4.3: Vadodara city temperature and heat wave occurrence

Whenever the ambient temperature rises above 37° C, the frame begins to absorb heat from the atmosphere. Even if the temperature is 37°C or 38°C, someone will suffer from heat stress disorders if the wetness is high. Vadodara City is having maximum temperature up to 43°C to 45°C which vary year to year as per climatic condition. Below are the temperature details of previous year which showing maximum variations from summer to winter. The city experiencing year wise heat wave is given below.

4.5.2

Urban flooding

According to the vulnerability analysis of the Vadodara locale the region has significant exposure of floods. The District has two significant waterways viz. the waterway Mahi that streams on Northwestern limit of the locale and the waterway Narmada on the Southeastern limit of the area; there are different waterways like Vishwamitry, Dhadhar, Suriya and numerous other occasional streams that moves through the region; more over 32

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

to these, significant water bodies like Ajwa Reservoir and Deo dam are additionally the potential destinations from where the danger of floods is conceivable.

Flood Hazard Probability rating: 5

Source: IMD Figure 4.6: Vadodara rainfall details

All the talukas of the region with significant wards of the city are the potential destinations which are either influenced during the hefty precipitation or water logging or by water discharge from the dams or supplies. Vadodara city have experienced the impact of major floods once in every three-year period. In the past, the city was severely affected by the floods of 1978, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014 and 2019.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

5

Assessing current vulnerability

Climate change no doubt has become one of the current issues severely impacting sensitive factors like health, economy, transportation, real-estate, etc. are under severe risk. The most salient outcomes of climate change, rising heat temperature, and high precipitation events are evidence of it. The negative consequences of these affect communities and their livelihoods the most, and thus vulnerability assessment which is one of the key aspects of assessing the climate change impacts to present development of the built environment, is a prerequisite today.

5.1 Selection of spatial scale for assessing vulnerability The heat and flood vulnerability assessment is carried out at a different spatial scale, i.e., macroscale (city level) and microscale (ward level), to understand the extent of vulnerability. The vulnerability indicators, whose data units are in the single input, quantifiable and independent variable form, are represented at the city level, i.e., historical temperature, historical precipitation, heat-related emergencies/hospitalizations, heatrelated mortality, robust protective infrastructure, and flexible shelter. Meanwhile, the remaining set of vulnerability indicators whose data units are quantifiable and dependent variables and that can be correlated are represented at the ward level.

5.2 Normalization of indicators In line with the vulnerability framework, a diverse range of vulnerability indicators were identified to collect quantitative and qualitative data through primary and secondary sources. But these indicators are a set of variables that are measured in different units (e.g., the area under urban built up in terms of sq. mt, population density in terms of people/sq. km, LST in terms of °C, etc.). As the vulnerability index is about ranking, the vulnerability assessment indicators have to be brought in common units or ranges. In order to normalize the indicators and making them unit-free, the units of each of the vulnerability indicators are first classified into four range intervals, (refer table 5.1), and then assigned a rating value between 1 to 4, where 1 indicates the least vulnerability, and 4 indicates the most vulnerability. These classifications were carried out based on certain standards specified under guidelines where ever possible. For example, WHO suggests 9 sq. mt per capita

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

green space, so if the value obtained for the indicator is less than the specified standard indicates the most vulnerability, where the value nearer to the standard indicates moderate vulnerability. While in the case of few indicators where the relevant standards are missing, then the range was specified based on the data analysed for the study. For instance, to determine the range for urban built-up, an average value of the city urban built-up is set in the upper limit of the moderate range, so the value obtained above the set limit indicates the most vulnerability, where the value lesser than the set limit indicates the least vulnerability. The normalization process sometimes varies, depending on the nature of the relationship of that particular indicator with the vulnerability (positive or negative relationship). The following two cases are explained: Case I: Positive relationship with vulnerability ranking - 1 indicates the least vulnerability, and 4 indicates the most vulnerability (e.g., urban built-up, population density, waterlogging incidents, and LST) Case II: Negative relationship with vulnerability ranking - 4 indicates the least vulnerability, and 1 indicates the most vulnerability. (e.g., city green cover, per capita green space and UPHC population outreach) Vulnerability Parameter

Waterlogging Incidents

Range

Vulnerability Rating

0

1

1 to 5

2

6 to 10

3

> 10

4

Weightage (%)

Standard

28

*(MoUD states zero incidents of waterlogging/ flooding as per SLB )

Source: Author Table 5.1: Normalization of indicators

5.3 Assigning weights to indicators Each vulnerability indicator, based on its nature, impacts divergently on the built environment. Weights are assigned to these indicators by means of the Delphi technique to get reliable results in understanding their importance to determine the vulnerability of a system. A minimum of 10 respondent experts in the survey was considered while assigning

35

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

the weight to the indicators ensuring that the weight or proportion assigned to them adds up to 100, (refer table 5.2).

Spatial Scale

Weightage (%)

Heat Vulnerability Indicators

Heat Related Emergencies/ Hospitalizations

N/A

Robust Protective Infrastructure (Stormwater)

N/A

Flexible Infrastructure (Flood Shelter)

Heat Related Mortality

Ward Level

Weigh tage (%)

Historical Precipitation

Historical Temperature City Level

Flood Vulnerability Index

Urban Built-up

25

Urban Built-up

22

Population Density

22

Population Density

24

Robust Protective Infrastructure (Per capita Green Cover)

19

Robust Protective Infrastructure (Green Cover)

26

Land Surface Temperature

16

Waterlogging incidents

28

Health Infrastructure (UPHC)

18

Source: Author Table 5.2: Assessing weights to indicators

5.4 Aggregation of indicators and development of vulnerability index Aggregation of the vulnerability indicators with weight assign is necessary in order to obtain a composite aggregated vulnerability index. For this, the weight of the indicators was multiplied with the normalized indicator value and aggregated. The aggregated value indicates the overall vulnerability index value for each ward in the city and also manifests its vulnerability rank. The vulnerability index value lies between 0 to 1, where 0 indicates the least vulnerability, and 1 indicates the most vulnerability. In contrast, to determine the overall vulnerability rating value for the case city, the aggregated values of the wards are classified into four range intervals and then assigned a rating value between 1 to 4, where 1 indicates the least vulnerability, and 4 indicates the most vulnerability.

5.5 Representation of vulnerability in spatial maps, vulnerability index and profile The obtained results of vulnerability assessment are presented with the help profiles, maps, index, and qualitative ranking.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Vulnerability Profile (VI): Compares various vulnerability elements for a single input and summarizes information through simple statements at the city level.

Vulnerability Index (VI): It is a metric that quantifies a system's vulnerability.

Vulnerability Index value lies between 0 to 1, where 0 indicates the least vulnerability, and 1 indicates the most vulnerability. This index is helpful for comparing relative vulnerabilities at ward level.

The vulnerability index value is relative in nature and only provides a sense of the quantified status of vulnerability which does not have any stand-alone practical significance and may not be the case in ground reality.

Spatial Maps: The map legend is comprised of data range intervals along with vulnerability rating. The rating score lies between 1 to 4. Case I: 1 indicates the least vulnerability, and 4 indicates the most vulnerability (positive relationship), Case II: 4 indicates the least vulnerability, and 1 indicates the most vulnerability (negative relationship). The maps visually covey the spatial character of vulnerability at the ward level and city level.

Qualitative Vulnerability Ranking: The qualitative set of indicators were analysed by means of secondary sources. With respect to their degree of information gathered, the indicators are represented with three categories for distinguishing low, medium, and high vulnerability at the city level.

5.6 Heat vulnerability profile

Source: Meteoblue Figure 5.1: Maximum Temperatures (based on 30 years analysed data) 37

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Vadodara continues to reel under heatwave as mercury reached 44° C in 2019

Image credits: The Wall Street Journal, 2019 38

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Vulnerability Indicator

Description • The city has no respite against heatwaves as the mercury is consistently rising during summer days. The maximum temperature reached 44.4°C in 2019, 43.9 °C in 2018, 42.7°C in 2017, and 44.2°C in 2010 and 2009, according to IMD data.

Historical temperature

• Vadodara is exposed to the severe threat of heatwave occurrence, experiencing an orange alert (43°C-44°C) each year (IMD).

• High heat temperature poses an extreme risk to health problems (heat-related illness).

Heat stress hospitalizations / Heat-related emergencies

Heat-related mortality

• The GVK-EMRI 108 medical emergency handled over 420 cases with an average of 30 cases/day heat-related emergencies in 2016, 2037 cases in 2017, and 25 cases/day heat-related emergencies in 2019.

• According to the Vadodara Municipal Corporation (VMC) health department reports, the city has zero death mortality rate for the past decade as preventive measures have been laid to mitigate heatwave vulnerability.

Source: Author Table 5.3: Heat vulnerability profile

The heat vulnerability profile description at the city level is based on the summary across all referenced studies (refer table 5.3).

5.7 Flood vulnerability profile

Source: Meteoblue Figure 5.2: Precipitation amounts (based on 30 years analysed data) 39

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

Vadodara’s flooded streets following incessant rains

Image credits: news18, 2019 40

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Source: Meteoblue Figure 5.3: Average temperatures and precipitation (based on 30 years analysed data)

Vulnerability Indicator

Description •

Vadodara is prone to extreme risk of floods and gets flooded once every three years. In 2019, the city witnessed a cloudburst by 500 mm of downpour in just 24 hours, which is far more than the previous record 297.4 mm in 2015 (IMD).

•

Formerly, it was severely affected by floods in 1978, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2013, and 2014 with a likelihood of red warming (more than 200 mm in 24hrs).

•

The stormwater drainage network caters to 70% coverage area of the city, which has a deficit according to the CPHEEO manual (100 % network coverage).

•

The cause of flash floods results from rapid urbanization as the natural drainage patterns have been disturbed, and the inefficiency of grey infrastructure to carry the urban runoff increases the risk of vulnerability.

Four persons died, and over 5000 were evacuated from the neighbourhoods during the floods in 2019 as per State Emergency Center in the city (Firstpost).

Historical precipitation

Robust protective infrastructure (Stormwater network)

• Flexible infrastructure (Flood shelter)

•

There are around 62 flood shelters (schools, colleges, and community halls) for the temporary shifting of affected people due to urban flooding, which elucidates the city's adaptive capacity to flood vulnerability.

Source: Author Table 5.4: Flood vulnerability profile

The heat vulnerability profile description at the city level is based on the summary across all referenced studies (refer table 5.4).

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

5.8 Assessing key indicators for vulnerability index 5.8.1

Urban built-up (Factor 1)

The developing cities are expanding at an alarming pace, and with an accelerated rate of urbanization and economic growth, built-up areas have surged too, particularly in the large urban areas. Urban built-up, an intuitive reflection of city development, is defined as the presence of human settlements or other crafted structures which generally exclude other components of urban environments or human footprints such as road network, grey infrastructure, urban greens, and brown scapes. Along with the increased socio-economic benefits of urban built-up and agglomeration comes ecosystem and infrastructure facilities ill. Indeed, the urban areas are causing environmental challenges, and climate change vulnerability has impacted both the micro and macro levels. The grimmer effects on the city due to increased urban built-up are seen in form of periodic flooding, increased urban runoff, rising heat temperatures, and biodiversity loss. In fact, the city poses great exposure to hazard risk as a result of physical processes like building construction, transportation, etc., and leads the human lifestyle to vulnerabilities. The mapping of vulnerability assessment was carried out using the Landsat data analysis to determine the percentage area under urban built for each ward up with respect to the city’s urban built-up i.e., 62 %.

The wards manifesting urban built up less than the city’s percentage area under it indicates least vulnerability, than the one with densely urbanized (refer figure 5.4). In order to improve the liveability and sustainability of the built successful balance integration-built fabric and natural environment is needed.

Most vulnerable wards with urban built-up: 1, 3 & 8

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High

Source: Author Figure 5.4: Urban built-up map 43

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

5.8.2

Land surface temperature (Factor 2)

There is whopping pressure on the infrastructure, and natural resources that emerged due to population density, concentrated development, intense human activities, and environmental degradation leads to a serious set of challenges. For instance, the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, which indicates a distinct difference in temperature between the urban and peripheral areas, is the resultant of Land Surface Temperature (LST) calculated by means of thermal infrared remote sensing data. If the LST anomalies reach beyond the environmental temperature 37°C-38°C, people can suffer from heat stress disorders with high humidity. The zonal statistical tool was used in geospatial mapping to identify the vulnerable wards with maximum Land Surface Temperature with respect to environmental temperature. The Eastern part of the city encounters warmer temperatures as compared to the other regions. The highest temperature witnessed by the areas under severe risk of heat stress is 44°C, in contrast to high risk where the temperature exceeded beyond 38°C (refer figure 5.5).. Additionally, LST is sensitive to the density of green vegetation (NDVI) on a patch of land, which is a predominant factor in transforming urban areas to UHI. The value of NDVI, closer to 1, indicates the healthy vegetation, where the value closer to -1 indicates unhealthy vegetation or inanimate objects primarily responsible for reflecting high temperature, (refer figure 5.6).

Most vulnerable wards with Land Surface Temperature (LST): 1, 2, 3, 8 & 9

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

Summer 2020 7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High

Source: Author Figure 5.5: Land surface temperature 45

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

Dead plant /Inanimate object Unhealthy plant Moderately healthy plant Very Healthy plant

Source: Author Figure 5.6: NDVI index

46

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

5.8.3

Population density (Factor 3)

“A popular statement is that cities make disasters worse and urbanization drivers disaster vulnerability, attributed to the population densities being higher with more infrastructure to be damaged” (Kellman, 2020). These characteristics indicate that a hazard covering a certain land area of the city has the potential to affect a greater number of people and cause more damage, depending on the extent of prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and other measures. The more densely inhabited the place is, the more deaths and casualties are probable. Thus, population density is directly proportional to the hazard risk, which means the ward with sparse population density will we be least susceptible to heatwave and flooding than one with highly populated. An average inhabited area of the city has a density of 15000 people/ sq. km. Following this, a vulnerability mapping of the wards was carried out to get the relative results considering the average density as the moderate range of vulnerability ranking (refer figure 5.7). According to global conception, a place usually with a density of 4000 -5000 people/ sq.km makes an optimal city with a sustainable built environment for the 21st century.

Most vulnerable wards with population density: 1,3, 8, 9 & 10

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High

Source: Author Figure 5.7: Population density map 48

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

5.8.4

Robust protective infrastructure (Factor 4)

“Integrated, forward-looking and robust network of protective infrastructure that reduces vulnerability and exposure of citizens and critical assets.” (ARUP, 2017) 5.8.4.1 City green cover The existing total green cover of the city is 12%, according to Landsat 8 analysis data which decreased from 26 % as compared to the past decade. The green cover plays a pivotal role in defining the liveability standards of the built environment. Reducing green cover in line with the present development of the city puts an enormous strain on stormwater runoff permeability, urban heat island effect, air quality, and biodiversity.

Ideally, the minimum green cover should be 1/3 of the geographical area (i.e., 40- 50 %) as suggested under National Forest Policy. In order to determine the vulnerability of the wards, the Landsat data for the green cover was divided ward-wise to obtain the percentage area under green cover with respect to the ward area. The city's average percentage area under green cover was set as a moderate range to obtain the relative results of vulnerability (refer figure 5.8).

Most vulnerable wards with green cover: 3, 9 & 11

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(4) Very High (3) High (2) Moderate (1) Low

Source: Author Figure 5.8: City green cover map 50

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

5.8.4.2 Per capita green space Per capita green space was assessed bases on the area under green cover for each ward in accordance with the total population residing in it. As per the international standard suggested by World Health Organization (WHO), there should be a minimum of 9 sq. mt per capita. In line with this standard, the vulnerability data analysis and mapping determine the vulnerable wards with the least per capita green space for their communities. Whereas the wards with a reasonable amount of per capita space considerably reduce the urban heat island effect and help to cool the neighbourhoods (refer figure 5.9).

Most vulnerable wards with per capita green space: 1, 3 & 9 Since the nature of this vulnerability indicator (robust protective infrastructure) is in a negative relationship, the wards with a vulnerability rating of 4 indicate the least vulnerability, where 1 indicates the wards with the most vulnerability having the least green cover/ per capita green space.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(4) Very High (3) High (2) Moderate (1) Low

Source: Author Figure 5.9: Per capita green space map 52

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

5.8.5

UPHC population outreach (Factor 5)

Urban Primary Health Centres (UPHC), which are different from the conventional primary health centres, are well equipped with robust health care facilities. The concept behind it aims to strengthen local health infrastructure and its role to provide primary health care services to its communities and make it accessible on a more equitable basis. According to the National Health Mission (NHM), guidelines recommend at least one UPHC within a 750 m radius proximity of urban area serving 50000 to 75000 population. Following this, a list of UPHC in each ward from the City Disaster Management Plan (CDMP) was taken into account and mapped spatially with a buffer of 750 m to assess the vulnerability of ward areas outreach (refer figure 5.10). The areas then multiplied with the population density of a particular ward to understand the extent of the vulnerable population experiencing difficulties in accessing the centres during the onset of a heatwave and high precipitation events, (refer figure 5.11). The number of UPHC centres in proportion to its population ward wise also defines the adaptive capacity of that area to climate vulnerability.

Most vulnerable wards with UPHC population outreach: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10 & 11

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

UPHC BUFFER NO OUTREACH AREA

Source: Author Figure 5.10: UPHC buffer map 54

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High

Source: Author Figure 5.11: UPHC population outreach map 55

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

5.8.6

Water logging incidents (Factor 6)

The expansion of Vadodara increased three-fold in the past two decades. The negative consequences of urbanization and industrialization have adversely affected the natural drainage pattern and ecosystem of the city over time, quite evident through more waterlogged areas and periodic flooding. In order to assess the flood vulnerability and people exposed to it, a list indicating the number of waterlogging incidents in each ward from the City Disaster Management Plan (CDMP) was taken into account and mapped accordingly.

Despite increasing the spatial stormwater coverage and grey infrastructure over, the city continues to have challenges to make an impact against flash floods as the drainage channels, creeks/ nallahs, and the river gets exploited through pollution of stormwater runoff, mixed sewers, and mismanagement of solid waste. Under the Ministry of Urban Development guidelines, the service level benchmark specifies if there are zero waterlogging / flooding incidents in the urban areas, the city has satisfactory adaptive capacity towards flood vulnerability. The analysed data is represented spatially to identify the most vulnerable administrative wards considering this as a benchmark for urban resilience, (refer figure 5.12). In addition, the list of flexible infrastructure (flood shelter) as provided in CDMP was also mapped (refer figure 5.13) to understand the adaptive capacity of the wards to evacuate vulnerable populations in case of any casualties and provide a protective infrastructure.

Most vulnerable wards with water logging incidents: 2,6 & 7

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High

Source: Author Figure 5.12: Water logging incidents map 57

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

16

2

9

17 6

7

6

11

10

6

8

3

8 3 4

4

1

4

13

2

6

5

9

3

5

9

6

3

4

3 5

3 4

12

WATER LOGGING INCIDENTS FLOOD SHELTER

Source: Author Figure 5.13: Flood shelter map 58

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

5.9 Heat vulnerability index The Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) summarizes the analysis of the primary factors (includes urban built-up, LST, population density, per capita green space, and UPHC) associated with the negative consequences of extreme heat events affecting the heat vulnerability of a particular area. HVI identifies the most vulnerable wards to the heatwave and affects the susceptibility of its people with a wide range of health problems related to it (heat stress: exhaustion and stroke).

Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) =

𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 1+𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 2+𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 3+ 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 4+ 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 5 5

Consequently, HVI is an important tool that the practitioners or decision makers should consider to identify the vulnerability of a place and take corrective actions to mitigate it before the onset of potential harm. The value of HVI for each ward lies between 0 to 1, where 0 indicates the least vulnerability, and 1 indicates the most vulnerability. The wards also describe vulnerability ranking based on the obtained VI value units (refer table 5.5).

Vulnerability Indicators (HVI) Population density Weights

Robust Protective Urban BuiltLand Surface Infrastructure Temperature up (Per Capita Green Space)

Urban Primary Health Centres

Aggregated Vulnerability Vulnerability Ranking Index

25 %

22 %

19 %

16 %

18 %

1

1

0.88

0.76

0.48

0.18

0.66

3

2

0.5

0.44

0.19

0.64

0.72

0.50

8

3

0.75

0.88

0.76

0.64

0.72

0.75

1

4

0.5

0.66

0.19

0.48

0.72

0.51

7

5

0.5

0.44

0.19

0.48

0.36

0.39

12

6

0.5

0.66

0.19

0.48

0.54

0.47

10

7

0.5

0.44

0.19

0.64

0.72

0.50

8

8

0.75

0.88

0.57

0.64

0.18

0.60

4

9

0.75

0.66

0.76

0.64

0.72

0.71

2

10

0.75

0.66

0.38

0.48

0.72

0.60

5

11

0.5

0.66

0.38

0.48

0.54

0.51

6

12

0.25

0.22

0.19

0.64

0.72

0.40

11

Wards

Source: Author Table 5.5: Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) 59

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High

Source: Author Figure 5.14: Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) map

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

5.10 Flood vulnerability index The Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) summarizes the analysis of the primary factors (includes urban built-up, population density, city green cover, and waterlogging incidents) associated with the negative consequences of high precipitation events affecting the flood vulnerability of a particular area. FVI identifies the most vulnerable wards to the periodic flooding and poses different shocks and stress challenges (waterlogging, traffic jams, power down, transportation break down, shelter damage, etc.) to the communities who live in it.

Flood Vulnerability Index (HVI) =

𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 1+𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 3+ 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 4+ 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 6 4

Consequently, FVI is an important tool that the practitioners or decision makers should consider to identify the vulnerability of a place and take corrective actions to mitigate it before the onset of potential harm. The value of FVI for each ward lies between 0 to 1, where 0 indicates the least vulnerability, and 1 indicates the most vulnerability. The wards also describe vulnerability ranking based on the obtained VI value units (refer table 5.6).

Vulnerability Indicators (FVI) Population density

Urban Built-up

Robust Protective Infrastructure (Green Cover)

Water Logging Incidents

24 %

22 %

26 %

28 %

1

0.96

0.96

0.96

2

0.48

0.44

3

0.72

4

Aggregated Vulnerability Index

Vulnerability Ranking

0.24

0.78

2

0.78

1.12

0.71

8

0.88

1.04

0.56

0.80

1

0.48

0.66

0.78

0.56

0.62

10

5

0.48

0.44

0.52

0.56

0.50

11

6

0.48

0.66

0.78

1.12

0.76

3

7

0.48

0.44

0.78

1.12

0.71

8

8

0.72

0.88

0.78

0.56

0.74

7

9

0.72

0.66

1.04

0.56

0.75

6

10

0.72

0.66

0.78

0.84

0.75

5

11

0.48

0.66

1.04

0.84

0.76

4

12

0.24

0.22

0.78

0.56

0.45

12

Weights

Wards

Source: Author Table 5.6: Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) 61

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

7 2 10 8

9

11 1 5

6

3

4

12

(1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High

Source: Author Figure 5.15: Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) map 62

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

5.11 Qualitative vulnerability ranking The vulnerability assessment based on a qualitative set of indicators predicts the extent of heatwave and flash floods impact on the human species and ecosystem subject to the adaptive capacity of the local institutions in Vadodara. The qualitative ranking allocated to each vulnerability parameter is summarized across all referenced studies from city disaster management authority, urban local bodies, and media. Only one parameter was found to have a high vulnerability and three with moderate vulnerability, which requires mitigation measures. In a way, this process of assessing vulnerability allows the to determine the expected range of impacts on various infrastructure components due to climatic hazards and the resilience capacity of the local institutions to respond to those impacts.

Climate Change Dimension

Hazard

Chronic Stresses

Vulnerability Indices Qualitative Adequate access to quality healthcare

Effectively managed ● Water Scarcity protective ecosystems

● Poor Air Quality ● High Unemployment ● Homelessness ● Changing Demographics ● Lack of Social Cohesion ● Aging Infrastructure Environment Heatwave/ ● Aging , Health & Flooding Population Well Being ● Poverty, Inequity and Food Scarcity ● Species Extinction ● Inefficient Public Transportation System ●Environmental Degradation Drought

Comprehensive hazard monitoring, exposure mapping and risk assessment

Diverse and affordable transport networks and effective O & M

Vulnerability Measure

Vulnerability Rating

Adequate and inclusive access to quality general healthcare.

Low

Well-developed understanding and acknowledgement of the role of ecosystems in providing physical protection to the city.

High

Robust systems in place to map the city’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards based on current data.

Effective systems to monitor potential hazards and assess risk.

Diverse and integrated transport networks, providing flexible and affordable travel around the city for all. Effective management of the city’s transport network to provide quality, safe transport.

Moderate

Low

Reliable emergency communications services

Effective and reliable communication services that are accessible by all 24X7

Moderate

Adequate education for all

Affordable, quality education for all.

Low

Comprehensive city monitoring & data management

Regular monitoring and analysis of relevant data undertaken to inform city planning and strategies.

Moderate

Source: Author Table 5.7: Qualitative vulnerability ranking 63

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

5.12 Summary, conclusion and forward The findings of the study indicate the trend of fast-growing urban areas; the consequences of reducing urban greens and increased urban built pave the paths for climate change events. The current climate variability is extremely rapid, posing unprecedented stress on the ecosystems and the life span of the city's infrastructure. The macro and micro-level vulnerability assessment identifies the neighbourhoods and city operations that are unsustainable and their adaptive capacity to respond to heatwave and flood hazards. In order to increase the knowledge about the vulnerability and impacts of these climatic hazards on Vadodara, documentation of vulnerability analysis using ground truth data is presented in the form of a profile, spatial maps, and index. These vulnerability outputs will help the practitioners, policymakers, and local institutions identify the vulnerable hotspots in the city and help to recommend appropriate interventions or measures into city planning, design, and operations to combat hazards. In fact, the efforts by the local institutions intended to reduce the risk of heatwaves are deteriorating with climate anomalies. While the climate gap is a crucial subject that will continue to influence the communities over the century, it is not deliberately thought of and given little political importance. A leap forward is needed to shift common perception to innovation in climate change adaptation to make the city climate-resilient. This would allow our habitats to dynamically adapt to changing environmental conditions, minimise threats to natural ecosystem services, and need large-scale investments to create a sustainable environment.

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Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat| A case of Vadodara

6

Toward Resilience: Climate change adaptation actions

Climate resilience requires consideration of both mitigation and adaptation actions because the vulnerabilities to climate change and options for preparedness are diverse and often specific to the local context. The climate change adaptation actions need to be made and implemented by all levels of governments, businesses, and society at large. Though the context may vary, decision-makers can learn from their peer experiences and adjust best practices to their circumstances. Leading Cities are making progress and getting organized by adopting a holistic climate resilience framework and organizing action and investment.

6.1 Heatwave mitigation measures Context Context Context

City City City

Ward Ward Ward

Heatwave Heatwave

Increase IncreaseUrban Urbantrees treesand andgreen greenspace: space:Shade, Shade,cooling cooling Heatwave urban and urbanenvironment environment(adaptation) (adaptation) andcarbon carbonsequestration sequestration (mitigation) (mitigation)due duetotothe theindustrial industrialemissions emissions Increase Urban trees and green space: Shade, cooling urban andbio carbon Green Energy: of fuels and Greenenvironment Energy:Use Use(adaptation) ofalgae algaebased based bio fuelssequestration andpromote promote (mitigation) due to the industrial use vehicles totoreduce the useof ofeclectic eclectic vehicles reduceemissions theCO2 CO2emissions. emissions.

Green Energy: Use of algae based bio fuels and promote Protecting Our and To Protecting OurBiodiversity Biodiversity andGreenery: Greenery: Toensure ensure use eclectic vehicles to thetoto CO2 emissions. they are iningood health resilient climate change theyof are good healthand andreduce resilient climate change Protecting Our Biodiversity and Greenery: To systems ensure Evaporative cooling: Evaporative spray Evaporative cooling: Evaporative spraycooling cooling systems they arethermal in goodrelief health and to climate change provide hot days, ininaasubtropical provide thermal reliefon on hotresilient days,even even subtropical climate. climate.

Evaporative cooling: Evaporative spray cooling systems provide thermal relief on hot days, even in a subtropical Strengthening StrengtheningResilience Resiliencein inPublic PublicHealth Health climate. and andOur OurFood FoodSupply Supply Strengthening Resilience inSupply Public Health Ensuring Water EnsuringContinued Continued Water Supplyfor forAll All and Our Food Development of shaded Development ofSupply shadedpedestrian pedestrianwalkways walkways Ensuring Continued Water Supply for AllWell Keeping Essential Services Running KeepingOur Our Essential Services Running Wellsuch suchas as Development of shaded pedestrian walkways telecommunications, power and infrastructure telecommunications, power andtransport transport infrastructure Keeping Our Essential Services WellTP such as Increase Green Space (GI) scheme IncreasePer Percapita capita Green SpaceRunning (GI)through through TP scheme telecommunications, power and transport infrastructure mechanism mechanism

Implementation Implementation Goal/ Goal/Mechanism Mechanism Implementation Goal/ Mechanism

Long LongTerm Term// Development DevelopmentPlan Plan Long Term / Development Plan

Short ShortTerm Term& &Long Long Term Term//TP TP mechanism mechanism Short Term & Long Term / TP mechanism

Increase Per capita Green Space (GI) through TP scheme Well-insulated Well-insulatedbuildings: buildings:Energy Energysavings savings(mitigation) (mitigation)and and mechanism adaptation adaptationtotoaatemperature temperatureincrease. increase.

Neighbourhood Neighbourhood Neighbourhood

Well-insulated Energy savings (mitigation) Managing stress precautionary totoavoid Managingheat heatbuildings: stressby bytaking taking precautionary avoidand adaptation to a temperature increase. heat heatinduced inducedillness: illness:reduce reduceoutdoor outdooractivities, activities,drinking drinking fluids fluidstotokeep keephydrated hydrated Managing heat stress by taking precautionary to avoid Short ShortTerm Term//Local Local heat induced reduceGrowing outdoor aactivities, drinking Green Roofs/ Cool layer Area Green Roofs/illness: CoolRoofs: Roofs: Growing avegetative vegetative layeror or AreaPlan Plan fluids to keep hydrated installing aacool roof installing cool roofcoating coatingreflects reflectsthe thesunlight sunlight Short Term / Local significantly significantlyand andreduces reducesthe theroof roofsurface surfacetemperature temperature Green Roofs/ Cool Roofs: Growing a vegetative layer or Area Plan installing a cool roof coating reflects the sunlight Cool CoolPavements: Pavements:Use Useof ofcooler coolerpaving pavingmaterials materialson on significantly and reduces thestreets roof surface sidewalks, lots, totocool the sidewalks,parking parking lots,and and streets cooltemperature thepavement pavement 65 surface surfaceand andsurrounding. surrounding.ItItalso alsoreduces reducesstormwater stormwaterrunoff. runoff.

Cool Pavements: Use of cooler paving materials on sidewalks, parking lots, and streets to cool the pavement surface and surrounding. It also reduces stormwater runoff.

IncreasePer Percapita capita GreenEnergy Space(GI) (GI)through through TPscheme scheme Increase Green Space TP Well-insulated buildings: savings (mitigation) and mechanism mechanism adaptation to a temperature increase.

Managing heat stressofbyLarge taking precautionary to| Aavoid Climate Resilient Cities:Well-insulated Vulnerability Profile Cities of Gujarat Case of Vadodara Well-insulated buildings: Energy savings (mitigation) and buildings: Energy savings (mitigation) and heat induced illness: reduce outdoor activities, drinking adaptation to a temperature increase. adaptation to a temperature increase. fluids to keep hydrated Neighbourhood Neighbourhood Neighbourhood

Managingheat heatstress stressby bytaking takingprecautionary precautionaryto toavoid avoid Managing Green Roofs/ Cool Roofs: Growing a vegetative layer heat induced illness: reduce outdoor activities, drinking heat induced illness: reduce outdoor activities, drinking or installing a cool roof coating reflects the sunlight fluidsto tokeep keep hydrated fluids hydrated significantly and reduces the roof surface temperature GreenRoofs/ Roofs/Cool CoolRoofs: Roofs:Growing Growingaavegetative vegetativelayer layer or or Green Cool Pavements: Use of cooler paving installing coolroof roof coating reflects thematerials sunlight on installing aacool coating reflects the sunlight sidewalks, parking lots, and to cooltemperature the pavement significantly andreduces reduces thestreets roofsurface surface temperature significantly and the roof surface and surrounding. It also reduces stormwater runoff.

CoolPavements: Pavements:Use Useof ofcooler coolerpaving pavingmaterials materialson on Cool sidewalks,parking parkinglots, lots,and andstreets streetsto tocool coolthe thepavement pavement sidewalks, surfaceand andsurrounding. surrounding.ItItalso alsoreduces reducesstormwater stormwaterrunoff. runoff. surface

Short Term / Local Area Plan ShortTerm Term//Local Local Short AreaPlan Plan Area

6.2 Urban Flooding mitigation measures Context

Urban Flood Mitigation Measures

Implementation Goal / Mechanism

Managing Our Water, Minimising Floods: Widens and deepens existing drains and canals, or builds diversion canals and centralised detention tanks to capture excess runoff from intense rainfall City

Sustainable urban drainage and use of natural features for Long Term / flood management Development Plan Floodwater Diversion and Storage approach for flood mitigation of Vishwamitri river and develop flood mitigation plan for the city

Nature-based solutions for rainwater Management : It consists of special substrates planted with plants that are able to absorb, store and filter large amounts of water in a short time.

Ward

Permeable paving incorporating water storage in the street sub base

Short Term & Long Term / TP mechanism

Low Impact Development (LID)/Green Infrastructure (GI) adaptation techniques through TP scheme mechanism

Implement on-site measures such as detention tanks and green roofs, to slow down runoff entering the public drainage system.

Neighbourhood

66

To address flood risk, building rules & regulations should be enforced such as stringent requirements for entrance levels of basements, underground facilities, minimum height requirement's from the general ground level etc

Short Term / Local Area Plan

Climate Resilient Cities: Vulnerability Profile of Large Cities of Gujarat | A Case of Vadodara

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