from the top Recent Housing Market News

BY DAVE NIELSEN HBA CEO

We are certainly in a different market now. It seems none of the experts can quite predict what the next 6-12 months will look like, especially for housing.

While rising interest rates and high inflation have certainly created some areas of slowdown, the underlying conditions are so different from the Great Recession. We have a much tighter supply of homes than we did fifteen years ago, and lending changes made to reign in loose mortgage practices and prevent borrowers from getting in over their heads are also far different from back then.

These factors appear to be contributing to some easing off of the accelerator and lessening of price appreciation, but not a freefall. Recent news (as of May 10, when I am writing this article) also shows that inflation dropped for the tenth straight month and is at its lowest level in over two years. With the Fed signaling it may be at or near the end of rate hikes, mortgage demand increased 10% for refinances and 5% for purchases over the previous week.

Based on conversations I have had with many builders of varying sizes, building locations, and price points in our market, it appears as though most have experienced overall positive trends since the first of the year. Custom building and remodeling in particular seem to be weathering the challenges pretty well, and even our large-scale production builders have had decent sales overall for the last 4-5 months.

The current federal debt ceiling stand-off certainly looms large, as do concerns about a further market correction. But the former is likely to be worked out, and the latter is a guessing game, somewhat like weather forecasting this spring.

HBA would like to increase its value in providing data and trends that will help all in our industry plan for the both the near and long term future. Included on page 23 in this edition of Building Home Magazine is information provided by our affiliated National Association on framing lumber pricing and the positive downward trend that has shown over the last twelve months, as well as info on the construction labor market and where that is currently trending.

I would love feedback on other areas related to new and remodeled construction that HBA could provide value by researching or providing data to help you in your jobs and businesses. Please email me at daven@hbapdx.org with any suggestions or resources.

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