The problem with Pakistani mangoes

Global production of mangoes is over 48 million tonnes showing an increased production with an average growth of 4.4% per annum as compared to 25 million tonnes. In Pakistan, total area under mango cultivation is around 169 thousand ha with the production of 1.7 million tonnes being the second major fruit crop of the country. Pakistan is 6 th largest mango producer in the world. The total global export is about 1.7 million tonnes with an estimated value of US$2.1 billion. USA is the leading importer with 28% share in the global market followed by EU countries with 22% share. Pakistan’s export to these high-end markets is insignificant.

Pakistan’s mango industry is mainly located in two provinces-Punjab and Sindh, each covering 63% and 37% of the total mango area in the country. Based on the district-level data on mango area and its varieties grown in each province, two mango clusters are identified for the detail analysis in this study: i) Punjab Chaunsa Cluster mainly grows Chaunsa mango variety, consists of Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur, Muzaffargarh and Khanewal with Multan as its centre point; and ii) Sindh Sindhri Cluster mainly growing Sindhri variety, comprises of Hyderabad, Tando Allahyar, Mirpur Khas, Naushehro Feroze and Sanghar with MirpurKhas as its centre point. The characterization of these clusters with the help of stakeholders helped to highlight the main production, marketing, trade, and processing features and identify the potential and constraints in each.

Mango growing faces several constraints at the institutional level which include weak mango research and extensions system, poor access to finance, lack of information about the market, lack of supply of modern inputs, poor coordination among stakeholders; production level constraints which include old, bushy-type and tall mango plants with low yield potential, lack of supply of high-yielding and true to type planting material, weak farmers’ capacity to understand modern management practices; poor post-harvest handling and marketing which include poor post-harvest management practices like storing, packaging, transportation, etc. poor domestic marketing infrastructure, non-compliance of international quality standards, limited diversity in international market; and value chain and processing level constraint which include weak value chain infrastructure like lack of collection centres, cold storage, hot water treatment plants, etc. and limited processing facilities. These constraints reduce per ha yield, increase post-harvest losses, reduce export production ratio, and deteriorate quality of the produce for the national and international markets.

the rains came, we were worried about an infestation of midges attacking the inflorescence of mango flowers. But ever since the rains the pests have gone away entirely. Pesticides are expensive this year and so is labour and elec- tricity, and if the rains hadn’t come we could have very well seen half our mangoes perish to the pests. Along with this, the pollination process of the remaining flowers will start and will tend towards giving healthy fruit.”

Yet there are still many difficulties for these farmers. Normally, a year like this where the conditions are favourable would mean a bumper crop and the chance to make a big profit. However, high prices of fuel, energy, and labour due to rising inflation has meant increased costs of farm inputs. As a result, the price of these mangoes is expected to be very high this year which may also cause delays for exporters. On top of this, many of the farmers in Sindh have been affected by last year’s mega floods. So what will the long-term implications of this chilly March be?

Last year’s events

There is a fair bit of confusion regarding what exactly happened last year. In short, Pakistan’s mango production process was already alive on a whim and a prayer, when political and economic instability resulted in an unreliable water and electricity supply, expensive labour, and on top of that there was also a record breaking heatwave. But how did news of the mango’s woes travel?

For starters, people in big cities like Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad noticed that mangoes were late to the markets. Usually, the greener, smaller, variety of mangoes hit the markets around mid to late April and by the second week of May the premium varieties of mangoes start making appearances. From this point up until the end of July is peak mango season, with the fruit still being in circulation until sometime in September before finally tapering off for the next harvest.

This was the first sign in the cities that mango production had possibly decreased. On the 16th of May 2022, a report was published in The Express Tribune which quoted the Director of the Mango Research Institute (MRI), Abdul Ghaffar Garewal, in Multan saying that due to the unprecedented heat wave this year mango production would fall by nearly 60%. The news spread fast on social media. Within a day of this, screenshots of a Punjab government report surfaced on Twitter which claimed that mango production in

Punjab had actually increased by 8.9%.

In the public eye, it immediately seemed that the report of mango production falling by 60% was fake news – a feeling further propagated because the statistic was being shared by a number of shady looking ‘news’ sites that flash infographics for cheap clicks. However, even the statistics being provided by the Punjab government are not an accurate measure. For starters, it is not an actual measurement of the amount of mangoes harvested this year – it is an estimation based on acreage and how much yield is expected per hectare. The second issue is that it does not include numbers for

Sindh – which is downstream of the Indus where water scarcity is a much larger issue. And perhaps most importantly, it does not factor in the mangoes that were dropped before they were ripe.

On the 18th of May, the noise from the mango industry grew louder and louder. After the initial assessment of a 60% fall made by the Mango Research Institute, the All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced that due to climatic effects and high temperature, mango production had been severely affected during this mango season, and was facing a dip of

50%. The average production of mango in Pakistan is 1.8 million tons and with 50% reduction, it is likely to be limited to 0.9 million tonnes. Because of this, the PFVA announced that they were cutting their export target by 25,000 tonnes to 125,000 tonnes for the current season, which is expected to fetch around $106 million.

Now, this too cannot be taken as an accurate indicator, since exporters also cut their target because of crises like shortage of electricity and diesel, an increase in cost of packaging processing and high freight charges to meet the export target. However, the association maintained that mango production had halved this year which is why they are having to slash targets.

Once again – we must reiterate that the figures of mango production going down by 50% or 60% are not accurate, surveyed, and final data. They are impressions and estimations given by different stakeholders, all of whom blamed the heatwave.

Despite the next year being in full swing, a final tally could not be put on the total harvest. In fact this year the provincial agriculture departments are yet to provide their projections. While the Crop Reporting System in Punjab is good at publishing data, things are made more difficult because there is no set up for such a system in Sindh which also contributes significantly to mango production and no data is publicly available since 2018.

What is happening this year?

Things are looking up. But the problem is, this might just be a one time thing. While mangoes may have a good 2023, rapid rising temperatures in the global south including Pakistan means that the farming of products such as mangoes is impossible as it used to be.

For starters, much like other crops in Pakistan, mango production has long not achieved its potential. According to a report on Mango Clusters by the Planning Commission back in February 2020, reported that during the 2000s, the mango production in Pakistan has been increasing at a reasonable rate of 4.1% per annum, comparable to the rate at international level. But all of the increase has been coming from the expansion in its area, while per ha yield has been declining during the period, and the deceleration has accelerated during 2011-16.

“The decrease in per ha yield along with the poor value chain infrastructure development resulted in a gradual decline in its competitive position in the world market. That is why Pakistan could not benefit from the high growth in the international mango market, both in terms of quantity and value of export,” reads the report. These were already existing issues in Pakistan’s mango industry infrastructure.

On top of this political instability and an economic crisis meant that fuel prices have been high and electricity largely unavailable. Mango trees require constant watering, and in the absence of working tubewells and cheap fuel to power generators the crisis deepened. This year, it so happens that natural conditions are favourable. However, last year, the final nail in the coffin were the scorching temperatures that arrived early and continued to rise – and had a visceral impact on the fruit.

Why it may not always be so

The climate factor is no joke. According to the International Food Policy Research Institution (IFPRI), agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and longrun production declines. This is a major part of what has happened to Pakistan’s mangoes this year.

Mango crops being affected by climate change is not a new phenomenon, and it has been observed and recorded in India as well –the world’s largest producer and exporter of mangoes. Back in April, India Times reported that local weather change has already affected the flowering sample and yield of mangoes. “Normally, mango flowering begins between December and March. However higher-than-normal temperatures this 12 months when the bushes had been on the flowering stage have broken crops. Unseasonal rains additionally introduced germs, flies, and microorganisms,” reads the report.

According to the report, Uttar Pradesh’s “mango belt” often accounts for practically 4-5 million tonnes of mangoes per 12 months, however this 12 months there might solely be

1.5 million tonnes. The yield has fallen sharply on account of the delay in flowering caused by the change in local climate. Mango growers in Malihabad cited poor flowering, illnesses, and erratic water supply as just a few causes for the anticipated low produce and stated the crop can also be more likely to be delayed by around 20 days – very similar to what has happened in Sindh and Punjab in 2022.

In a different set of circumstances, reporting for The Third Pole Sopan Joshi in 2016 described how erratic rainfall and unexpected humidity, a fallout of increasingly unpredictable weather due to climate change, is hurting the cultivation and harvest of India’s favourite fruit. The research report describes how “these are the effects of climate change that scientists have projected all along: Greater variability of temperature and rainfall, disruption of familiar weather patterns, and greater unpredictability.”

“Each season, sudden weather changes mar the output of the growers, making it increasingly an unviable business. Even if you discount all kinds of seasonal variability, nothing explains changes on this scale year after year,” says Sheikh Insiram Ali, the president of Mango Growers’ Association of India. “So many growers now want to get out of mangoes because of increasing risk and uncertainty. It is difficult to recover investments, forget about making profits.”

What should farmers be doing — the export equation

Praying. And as far as this year is concerned, it seems that the prayers of mango farmers have been answered. “Orchards in these areas were completely destroyed last year because of the drought. Then the floods came in and due to lack of drainage, water stood in the gardens for several months due to which the roots of the plants became hollow. We also have a five-decade-old orchard that we are reviewing because its root system has been completely destroyed,” laments Wadero Shuja Memon of Khairpur district of Sindh.

“Fertility of fertile lands has been affected and following the ravages of floods this year, Mango Smart Tree System is being initiated in Punjab including Sindh. However, the process of planting new trees in these gardens is going on, but due to the floods, the market will face a decrease in mangoes coming from Sindh. But by next year, the situation will not only be normal but also better than before.”

“The weather suddenly warmed up in March last year and the heat intensified in April. Although the best temperature was available for flowering mangoes in February, and after flowering, when it was time for pollination, the night weather was still very ideal. We had temperatures ranging from 11 degrees Celsius to 20 degrees Celsius at night, which was perfect for any variety of mango. On the other hand, the temperature continued to rise during the day and reached 42 degrees Celsius,” says Chauhdry Siffique Ahmed. “As a result, the pollination process was disrupted and fruit drop began to increase in the areas where the pollination process was completed and fruit setting was started. If the daytime temperature ranged from 26 degrees Celsius to a maximum of 35 degrees Celsius, the pollination process would have been better.”

Those are the conditions that these farmers have gotten this year. However, this may not be how matters remain forever. As a fruit, mangoes need to be export oriented. The decrease in per ha yield along with the poor value chain infrastructure development resulted in a gradual decline in its competitive position in the world market. That is why Pakistan could not benefit from the high growth in the international mango market, both in terms of quantity and value of export. The country is facing a declining export-production ratio while major mango growing countries are bringing a higher proportion of their mango produce to the international market. Moreover, despite some recent improvements in the mango value chain, the country still earns the lowest per unit price of mango among the leading mango exporting countries of the world.

The global production in 2016 was 50.6 million tonnes, with a total cropped area of 5.7 ha translating into yield of 8.9 tonnes/ha. During 2016, Pakistan contributed about 3% of the global area under mango cultivation, and produced 3.3% of the world’s total mango production. The per ha yield of mango in Pakistan is about 12% higher than the world average. The mango export from the country contributed about 5% of the world export and only 3.2% in the value of mango exported internationally. This is because Pakistan earns only two thirds of the world average export price. Farm gate price of mango in Pakistan is far below (68.8%) the international farm gate price providing Pakistan the competitive edge in competing with the international competitors even by investing in production, exportable quality and value chain infrastructure. The major mango producing countries of the world are India, China, Thailand (Table 6). While Pakistan’s production of 1.7 million tonnes (3.1% share), ranked 6th in global production with cropped area 169 thousand ha translating into average yield of 10.0 tonnes/ ha. Although Pakistan’s yield is higher than the global yield of 8.92 tonne/ha, it is still lower than many countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Egypt, and Mexico with very high yields through better farm management, adaption of GAP/SPS protocols, mechanisation, high density plantation and appropriate infrastructure.

Conclusion

The good news is that there is a very good chance that there will be some respite for Pakistan’s mangoes this year. Unlike 2022, the fruit will not be short on the market and it will also not suffer in terms of quality given the good conditions it has found naturally. The problem is that these are short-term wins.

There is no guarantee that March will be the same next year. In fact, it may be even hotter. And if Pakistan is to turn its precious mangoes into an export oriented industry, all of the suggestions presented above need to be given very serious thought. Besides, the climate threat is going nowhere. Already fears have been raised that the pre-monsoon rains would delay wheat crop for 15 days, damage quality & cause late sowing of kharif compromising its yield. So while a cooler March may have helped mangoes, it might not be so great for other crops. That is why it is necessary for all of the stakeholders to sit together and devise a policy framework for inter-provincial coordination on agricultural matters. n

By Momina Ashraf

In the middle of a long que to get to the cashier at D-Watson right at the beginning of Ramzan, the hushed conversations between strangers waiting their turn was heavy with discontentment.

“Three bananas, a handful of grapes, some green chillies and lemons for Rs 500,” muttered one mother-of-four, disapprovingly addressing no one in particular.

The murmurings spread fast through the lines. Inflation has hit everyone hard. And while the poorest segments of society have been hit the hardest, shoppers at up-scale grocery stores have not been spared either. Everyone is reeling from record food inflation which touched 45.1% by the end of February 2023, and hit an all-time high of 46.7% as measured by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

But in the same line at D-Watson, perhaps one of the most interesting comments made in passing was by another woman in the line: “Superstore walon ki to aj kal mouj hogi (the superstore businesses must be striving these days).”

This poses an essential question. Since the demand for food is inelastic, meaning it never goes down since it is a basic necessity, does that mean businesses selling these items thrive in times of great inflation? That might be the answer one immediately arrives at but the reality is more complicated. And it goes to the heart of how the grocery store business works.

Normally, up-scale and upper middle class superstores and grocery stores enjoy a peak season in the month of Ramzan. People