Can Pakistan ever be on a path of sustainable economic growth?

OPINION

Ammar H. Khan

Can Pakistan ever be on a path of sustainable economic growth?

If education continues to be an afterthought, and remains on the backburner, then we shall never be able to get on a path of sustainable economic growth. Education and development of intellectual capacity is a prerequisite. Without universal literacy, no country ever has been able to graduate to a middle-income or upper-income country on the path of development. Before a population can educate itself, it needs to feed itself first. Pakistan has one of the highest rates of malnourishment amongst it's children. Despite being an agrarian Yes. The path to sustainable economic growth exists. Dozens of countries around the world have successfully improved living standards, and prosperity of its citizens by adopting one path or another. The path to becoming a middle-income country, or even an upper-income country exists, but it's one that economy, food insecurity is high. A distorted market structure has led to a scenario where the country has to import even basic staples like wheat. The absence of a supply-chain infrastructure results in colossal wastage of agricultural produce; despite there being food insecurity.a country that cannot feed itself, cannot educate itself, and consequently cannot attain sustainable growth, or improve livelihoods of its population does not align with the path predominantly chosen by politicians, base. and rentier policy makers. Agricultural yields continue to be among the lowest

We have one of the fastest growing populations in the as compared to peers, and other economies in similar stages world, a potential demographic dividend, that can become a of economic growth. With the exception of a few products, demographic liability if the status quo continues. A human capital yields have largely remained stagnant over the last decade even de elionebt plan which covers both immediate needs, as well as though population continues to grow. The country imports long-term capacity development is critical. There are more than 23 more than US$ 4 billion of basic food staples on an annual bamillion children out of school in Pakistan, and the number is only sis: An amount which will continue to grow as the population, increasing over the last few years. A population that is not educat- and overall income levels grow. Absence of a robust supply ed, or skilled, cannot differentiate itself, or even demand a premi- chain infrastructure, low yields, and a distorted market often um in the global marketplace for talent. An unskilled workforce results in shortages which drives up food inflation, making it acts as a drag on economic growth, as the country cannot embark increasingly difficult for households to afford food. on activities that are heavily reliant on intellectual capital. As food affordability reduces, so does calorie and micro-

An unskilled and uneducated workforce effectively acts as a nutrient intake, which directly has an impact on the ability of drag on the productivity of an economy. Productivity can only be a population to learn and educate itself, as stunting kicks in. increased once an economy can generate more output from similar It is estimated that almost 40% of children under five years in levels of input, the same can only be achieved through acquisition Pakistan are stunted. In the presence of political brouhaha and of scale, and technology. We cannot have either scale, or tech- an elite that dominates all discourse, very little, or nothing is nology with an unskilled workforce. Educating the children of being done to solve these structural issues. today and imparting skills such that the workforce is equipped to A well-fed and educated workforce is critical for any deal with the technological and economic demands of the future transition towards a middle-income economy. A sovereign that remains critical. isn't able to feed it's population, or educate its children cannot ever attain broad based sustainable growth. There may be boom-bust cycles driven by injection of external capital, or yet another round of subsidies, and amnesties. But the duration of these cycles continue to shorten. The writer is an independent macroeconomist and energy analyst. The economy has been sustaining itself on borrowed capital, and even borrowed time. Inability to address structural issues has led us to a scenario where it's already too late. We can either fix these structural issues and ensure broad-based growth for everyone, or we can continue operating an elite focused economy that continues to survive courtesy of one bailout, or another. If the status quo continues, the answer to the question is a very clear no. n