Millions of homes have been destroyed. Could we rebuild them with solar rooftops? Uzair Younas

OPINION

Uzair Younus

Millions of homes have been destroyed. Could we rebuild them with solar rooftops?

to not only rebuilt better homes, but to add solar rooftops to the homes of citizens who have been devastated by these floods. This additional cost, which will increase the near-term burden on the exchequer, is going to pay off immense dividends over the long-term, providing cheap, reliable power to the most marginalized of communities in Pakistan, reducing the need for energy imports, eliminating need to extend the grid infrastructure at high costs, and kickstarting the emergence of a micro-grid, renewable energy infrastructure in rural Pakistan. As of September 8, 2022, a total of 1.74 million homes have either been partially or fully destroyed across Pakistan during the ongoing floods ravaging that country. 1.5 million of these homes, which is 86 percent of the total, are estimated to be in Sindh. The total damages, based on early assessments, amounts to A 2-kilowatt solar system can be installed at a cost of roughly $1,000, providing enough electricity to meet the needs of households consuming less than 200 units of electricity a month. This is much of the rural population, especially in the areas affected most severely by the floods. The provision of these systems to rural households will provide them with a necessity to live a modern life, while eliminating almost $2.6 billion. Reconstructing these homes will cost an addition- the need to spend billions of dollars to expand and maintain the elecal $4.28 billion, taking the total financial costs to housing during the tricity grid infrastructure. floods to $6.9 billion. Such an investment can also be paired with a plan to skill la-

The immense scale of the destruction in Sindh means that the bor and incentivize the emergence of service providers in rural areas province will need almost $4 billion just to rebuild its housing stock; needed to maintain this infrastructure. As this ecosystem scales, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa will require over $250 million; Punjab almost further investments can be made to develop community microgrids, $163 million; and Balochistan will require another $145 million. local component manufacturing, and more innovative products These estimates are based on assumptions where $750 a house is such as battery storage that can lower the intermittency of power provided to people whose homes have been partially destroyed while available. $6,000 a house is provided for those who have completely lost their Providing this facility to only 25 percent of affected househomes. holds who are based in some of the most far-flung areas of the counThe numbers themselves are derived in part from the 2010 flood try where the grid has either not yet reached or it is too expensive to assessments conducted by the World Bank and the Asian Devel- maintain it will cost an additional $434 million, an increase of about opment Bank, with the cost per home revised upwards to consider 10 percent to the total reconstruction costs. As this program scales inflation and need for overall improvements to structures. up and a local ecosystem emerges – bringing economies of scale to

A lot of the homes destroyed are likely to be what is referred to lower the costs – the facility can be scaled up to eventually cover as kaccha homes, meaning that their structure was not built out of ro- every single affected flood-affected household not connected to the bust materials like bricks and cement. There may emerge a perspective grid. that the amount required to rebuild should be revised downwards. Such a program should be combined with a governThis will be folly and in fact the amounts should be revised upwards ment-backed program to incentivize manufacturing of relevant components, including solar panels, within the country. The capital can be attracted into the relevant manufacturing segments through the demand signal generated by the policy to provide solar rooftop to flood-affected households not connected to the grid. The demand The writer is Director of guarantee will provide the necessary predictability to entrepreneurs looking to deploy capital and meet the Pakistan Initiative the growing need for solar power in the country. at the Atlantic Council, a The current humanitarian and economic crisis is going to take years to recover from. But it is an Washington D.C.-based opportunity to also leapfrog ahead by making investments that not only improve the lives of those most think tank, and host of the affected by the floods, but also kickstart the emergence of a decentralized, renewable energy ecosystem podcast Pakistonomy. He in the country. Making such smart, common-sense investments can not only bring long-term benefits to tweets @uzairyounus. underprivileged households, but also lead to the emergence of new industries and economic opportunities within Pakistan. n