Astounding damage to agriculture needs immediate response Uzair

OPINION

Uzair Younus

Astounding damage estimate that nearly 70 % of the losses are in the fruits category, with the Killa Saifullah region suffering the brunt of losses, which we to agriculture needs place at over $200 million. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is likely to lose between $300 to $500 million in agricultural output because of the flooding, with fruits immediate response being the vast majority of losses. At the time of writing this analysis, district-level data for the province was not available and as we get Just when it could not have got any worse, it did. What was light at the end of the tunnel turned out to be a fast-moving train that has hit Pakistan, running over a country that was already down for the count. When the final assessments are access to this data, we will be able to paint a more specific picture of losses across districts in the province. Given the flow of floods southwards, it is no surprise that Punjab has been spared the brunt of the damages. Our estimates suggest that Punjab will lose between $65 to $150 million in output losses, done, the devastation caused by the 2022 floods in the country primarily in the cotton and rice-growing regions of Rajanpur and DG will be in the global record books. Based on a preliminary and evolving Khan, who have been the hardest-hit in the province.assessment conducted by myself and Ammar Khan – with a lot of input Recovering from this devastation will take time and resourcfrom people within and outside Pakistan – we estimate that the finan- es. These resources must focus on kickstarting agricultural credit cial damages and reconstruction costs of these floods is already over markets, providing seeds and fertiliser to farmers whose livelihoods $13 billion. This assessment does not include the full range of catego- have been destroyed, and funds to district governments to rehabilries including education and healthcare, but it does include big-ticket itate lands and roads across affected districts. By our estimation, a categories such as housing, road infrastructure, and agriculture. complete package for the agricultural sector across the country will

In terms of agriculture alone, the damages are astounding, cost almost $1 billion and will have to be equitably distributed to totaling between $1.7 and $2.9 billion for major agricultural products provinces and districts that have been hardest hit. Delays in getting across the four provinces. Sindh is the hardest hit, with widespread these resources to the grassroots level will only increase losses, fuel devastation in the province’s cotton and rice belt. Based on our food inflation, and undermine the overall economic recovery from analysis, which looks at the historical output of cotton, rice, onions, these floods. tomatoes, and potatoes produced across districts in Sindh, we esti- It is also important here to point out the limitation of the early mate losses to range between $750 million and $1.2 billion. Within exercise that we have carried out. Our estimates rely on publicly the province, Badin and Larkana are likely to be the worst-hit, nearing available information gleaned from reports provided by the NDMA losses of between $75-100 million; over 30% of the total cropped area and PDMAs across the province; we also relied on historical agriculin the province is estimated to have been affected in the floods. tural data published by various ministries and departments, which

Balochistan is almost tied in terms of damages and may likely also include nominal value of output for various products, and the suffer more than Sindh when the final data comes out. This is likely many local sources who were willing to answer our questions and because much of the road infrastructure connecting the province to share information. the rest of Pakistan has not been operational, meaning that whatev- As anyone who has worked in Pakistan can tell you, data qualer product survives may rot in the coming days. The total damages ity is always a major hurdle, meaning that our model is only as good across all districts are estimated to be between $600 million to over $1 as the data we get access to. Over the coming weeks, more rigorous billion; lack of district-level data on how much land has been affected analysis will be required, and the state machinery is best placed to makes this exercise more challenging in the province. In total, we conduct it; open-source analysis like the one we have conducted can only offer a ballpark picture that can inform more rigorous analysis. This exercise also reveals the significant limitations Pakistan has in terms of building the knowledge infrastructure to deal with The writer is Director of calamities such as the ongoing floods. Given that climate change makes such catastrophes more, not less, the Pakistan Initiative likely, it is vital for the federal and provincial governments to improve and standardise their data collecat the Atlantic Council, a tion and dissemination platforms. This can allow quicker, more robust analysis to be conducted, which Washington D.C.-based will only make policymaking, disaster response, and reconstruction efforts more efficient. think tank, and host of the Crises are an opportunity and while the scale of this disaster is unimaginable, Pakistanis should podcast Pakistonomy. He not lose hope. The reconstruction efforts to follow will require a whole of nation approach. It is also an tweets @uzairyounus. opportunity to leapfrog various sectors, especially agriculture. The opportunity should not go to waste, because if it does, we will only have ourselves to blame.