Security and diplomacy - where do we stand? Uzair Younas

OPINION

Uzair Younus

Security and diplomacy - where do we stand? sert that these are just a spate of attacks, the evidence suggests that things are getting out of control on the periphery and need urgent attention. In the coming months, the government in Islamabad will have no choice but to confront the threat head on. This will require urgent institutional, With the country in political chaos, facing political, and societal alignment at a time when the country is polarized. The crisis in Afghanistan is making things even worse and comthe challenges will be even more difficult plicating economic and security challenges for Pakistan on its western periphery. The Taliban has continued to provide safe havens to the TTP, Over the last few weeks Pakistani citizens have faced a barrage of information regarding the ongoing machinations for power in Islamabad. Whether it is mainstream television or print news, social media, or WhatsApp, information is coming in at a relentless which also threatens Chinese investments in Pakistan. The Taliban has also refused to recognize the international border and clashes have previously erupted between the Taliban and Pakistani security forces. In addition, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is worsening and having an economic fallout on Pakistan. The Taliban’s relations with and frenetic pace. Amidst the ongoing drama, however, not much international actors are also not showing signs of improvement. attention has been paid to what happens the day after and the The threats on the western periphery will have to be dealt with challenges the government, which is likely to be led by the PML- while also focusing on reinforcing Pakistan’s key relationships, espeN’s Shahbaz Sharif, is going to face from the onset. Two key issues cially Saudi Arabia, China, the United States, and the European Union. will demand urgent attention: a hot western periphery and a cold High-level engagement with strategic partners like Saudi Arabia and diplomatic front. China will be an immediate priority, mainly because Pakistan requires In 2021, 207 terror attacks occurred in Pakistan, a 42 percent economic assistance due to emerging external sector pressures as well as increase compared to 2020, according to the Pakistan Institute of financing needs to meet increased security needs. This assistance will also Peace Studies. The analysis points to a resurgent Tehreek-e-Taliban be critical to ease the pace at which populist economic policies, including (TTP), which carried out 87 of the 202 attacks, an increase of 84 the recent cut to petroleum and electricity prices, are rolled back. percent over 2020. Things have not eased in 2022, with the TTP Relations with Europe and the United States, which have been on a recently announcing a Ramzan offensive soon after it conducted an- declining trajectory for years and damaged after the way in which foreign other terror attack which claimed the lives of at least six Pakistani policy has been leveraged for domestic political gains, will also have to be soldiers. repaired. This will require a tactful and below the radar engagement, priThe TTP is not the only group that is spilling the blood of marily because any high-level engagement following a change of governPakistan’s brave young men who are serving on the frontlines and ment in Islamabad will surely be seen as evidence of a conspiracy. trying to keep the country’s citizens safe and secure. Terror attacks Senior-level engagement, including through phone calls or a visit conducted by Baloch groups have also spiked, with reports indicat- to Washington, will immediately lead to domestic drama. The argument ing that since January 2022, at least 51 people have been killed and will be that a new government, brought into power at the behest of the almost a hundred injured in at least 17 attacks in Balochistan. On “international establishment,” is quickly finding a receptive audience in March 29, Pakistan’s interior ministry confirmed that terror groups Washington. An evolution in Pakistan’s position on Russia’s invasion of are regrouping near the Iranian border in Balochistan. Ukraine will be even trickier, not only because it must be assessed with While the Imran Khan government has previously tried to as- respect to the trajectory of Pakistan-Russia relations, but also because a rapid shift in stance will once again be seen as evidence of an international conspiracy. Achieving a diplomatic reset will be made problematic by the fact The writer is Director that counter-terror cooperation is likely to be the need of the hour in the coming weeks and months. With terror of the Pakistan groups becoming increasingly emboldened and capable, Pakistan is likely to require international support to push Initiative at the back against terror groups, especially IS-K. While the security establishment and a new government may be open to Atlantic Council, a greater cooperation, Imran Khan in opposition is likely to agitate over increased cooperation as well. Washington D.C.- All of this means that a new government (which is the likely scenario at this moment in time) will have its work based think tank, and cut out. It will have to build consensus, stem the rising tide of terrorism in Pakistan, rebuild diplomatic ties, and seek host of the podcast greater economic and counter-terror cooperation at a time when the domestic political environment is not conducive Pakistonomy. He to cooperation. What comes next remains to be seen, but Khan’s opponents, if and when they are in power, are going tweets @uzairyounus. to have a very difficult time navigating the terrorism and diplomatic crises confronting them.