Looks like Biden/Trump replay in 2024

Nothing much has changed

A2024 Biden-Trump presidential campaign rematch may not be the contest that most Americans want But in all likelihood it will be the contest they’ll get

President Joseph Biden s situation is complicated

Polls show that Democrats have a favorable attitude of the president and approve of his job performance

But, largely due to concerns about Biden s age, the polls also show that nearly one-half of his own party would like someone else to be their standard bearer in 2024 That might have posed a problem for the president s reelection except for four factors

First as Biden has had a successful and dramafree two and a half years in office, no serious Democrat is willing to challenge his reelection second, the most likely successor to Biden might be Vice President Kamala harris but her favorable ratings are so low that Democrats see Biden despite his age as a much safer bet in a general election contest against any Republican Third other Democrats who might have emerged as serious Biden alternatives all come from the same centrist wing of the party, meaning any challenge to the incumbent successful president would be based on personal not policy differences and would be frowned upon by the party establishment

The final factor that makes a challenge unlikely is the way the Democratic Party leadership has changed its presidential primary schedule to better suit Biden’s chances to win A few months ago, the Democratic National Committee the party’s governing body voted to end decades of iowa and New hampshire being the first states to hold contests in the election process, replacing them with south Carolina, which is now mandated to go first

Both iowa and New hampshire have long been viewed as problematic by the Democratic establishment These two states have frequently catapulted insurgent candidates into the national spotlight upsetting or making it more difficult for the establishment s favorites to coast to victory This is what the anti-Vietnam candidacy of eugene McCarthy did to Lyndon Johnson in 1972; what Ted Kennedy’s progressive challenge did to Carter in 1980; what the charismatic Barack Obama did to hilary Clinton in 2008; and what Bernie sanders progressive populist campaign almost did to Clinton in 2016