How India is supporting Myanmar's military with arms

facturer Yantra India Limited of sending 122 mm barrels for weapons to Myanmar in October The barrels, valued at $330,000, were shipped to Yangon-based Innovative Industrial Technologies Company Limited, which is owned by the Myanmar military's arms broker INDIA'S AMBIGUOUS ENGAGEMENT WITH MYANMAR

Pro-democracy leaders and activists in Myanmar have been taken aback by India s assisting and supporting the junta through military supplies "India, as the biggest democracy in the area, continues its counterproductive policy of engagement with military junta, which is not a reliable partner for India and not serving Indian interests even in the short run," Zaw Tuseng, president of the Myanmar Policy Institute, told DW

D W M U R A L K R I S H N A N

SI N C E t h e m i l i t a r y j u n t a s e i z e d p o w e r i n Myanmar in February 2021 companies within I n d i a i n c l u d i n g s t a t e - o w n e d e n t i t i e s h a v e s h i p p e d a t l e a s t $ 5 1 m i l l i o n ( € 4 7 3 m i l l i o n ) i n a r m s r a w m a t e r i a l s a n d a s s o c iated supplies to Myanmar s military and arms dealers

A UN report released last week revealed that a total of 22 unique suppliers based in India shipped arms to the junta during the military s violent clampdown on dissent and protests

Among the suppliers were state-owned entities including Bharat Dynamics Bharat Electronics and Yantra India and private companies Sandeep Metalcraft and Larsen & Toubro

The report said India s continued supply of materials to Myanmar which have been used for surveillance as well as to boost artillery and missile stocks could be considered a violation of customary international law and international humanitarian law India should therefore be aware that the arms it provides to the Myanmar military though relatively limited are likely to be used in the commission of international crime the report stated Myanmar has been gripped by a civil war since the junta led by General Min Aung Hlaing toppled the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 in a coup RUSSIA CHINA AND SINGAPORE MAIN SUP-

PLIERS Besides India Russia China Singapore and Thailand also provided military support worth a total of about $1 billion to the Myanmar military including arms dealers who have figured out how to play the system the report noted Russia China and Singapore continue to be the main suppliers of advanced weapons systems to the Myanmar military accounting for over $400 million $260 million and $250 million respectively since the coup from state-owned entities That s because sanctions are not being adequately enforced and because arms dealers linked to the junta have been able to create shell companies to avoid them said Tom Andrews the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar

In its detailed report the UN accuses the arms manu-

The expert also warns that ties between New Delhi and the junta won't help curb China s influence in the country "If India goes on like that, there is more to lose than gain," Zaw Tuseng said Moe Zaw Oo, a deputy foreign minister of the National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar, said he was shocked to learn that India supplied arms to Myanmar's military The NUG is the government-in-exile formed by elected representatives and members of ethnic minority groups "The people of Myanmar will remember that and it will have impact on the longterm relations of the two countries India's government should seriously take into consideration our people's desire and will rather than short-sighted business interests," Moe Zaw Oo told DW A c c o r d i n g t o S u i K h a r, a leader of the Chin National Front ( C N F ) , I n d i a s e e s C h i n a s i n f l uence in Myanmar as a threat "It is therefore trying to forge good r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e m i l i t a r y j u n t a w h i c h i s m i s p l a c e d I t w i l l n o t work Tatmadaw (Myanmar's ruling military junta) is not the only s t a k e h o l d e r i n t h e c o u n t r y, a n d t h e s o o n e r N e w D e l h i r e a l i z e s t h i s , i t w i l l b e g o o d , " S u i K h a r told DW The CNF is also affiliated with the NUG T h o u s a n d s o f f i g h t e r s f r o m Chin state and the Sagaing region h a v e j o i n e d a n a r m e d s t r u g g l e and put up fierce resistance to the Myanmar army over the past two y e a r s " T h e p e o p l e s r i g h t s a r e being crushed New Delhi should c o n s i d e r t h e m o r a l a n d e t h i c a l imp licatio n s o f s u ch ar ms tr an s - fers and sales," Salai Isaac Khen, the former minister of Chin state, told DW INDIA DENIES BEING MAJOR SOURCE OF MYANMAR ARMS Indian representatives told UN rapporteur Andrews t h a t t h e a r m s s u p p l i e d t o M y a n m a r w e r e p a r t o f c o m - m i t m e n t s m a d e t o t h e c i v i l i a n g o v e r n m e n t b e f o r e t h e c o u p , a n d w e r e e x p o r t e d i n l i g h t o f N e w D e l h i ' s o w n domestic security concerns "India has never been, nor is, a major source of arms to Myanmar, and India has b e e n f u l f i l l i n g o u r p a s t o b l i g a t i o n s O u r e x p o r t s a r e very clearly scrutinized We consider what is in the int e r e s t o f t h e p e o p l e o f M y a n m a r, " t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s s a i d , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e r e p o r t T h e r e a r e a n e s t i m a t e d

1 , 7 0 4 , 0 0 0 t o t a l i n t e r n a l l y d i s p l a c e d p e r s o n s i n M y a nm a r a s o f 6 M a r c h , a c c o r d i n g t o U N f i g u r e s A t l e a s t

2,940 civilians have been killed by Myanmar authorities, according to the Independent Assistance Associat i o n f o r P o l i t i c a l P r i s o n e r s , a w a t

Relations between the two countries are now at a chilly level, with rounds of talks between Bangladesh and Myanmar surrounding the Rohingya crisis and Myanmar’s lastminute bungling of repatriation In such a context, Bangladesh is looking for a possible solution to this crisis in military diplomacy Just like political diplomacy, military diplomacy has had positive discussions with Myanmar’s military leadership to resolve the Rohingya crisis, and in terms of defense cooperation, the relationship between the two countries will accelerate and strengthen mutual trust with this friendly country

The influence of the military on state power in Myanmar is immense Apart from that, the current Rohingya crisis falls within the ambit of the army As a result, any move to deal with the crisis without involving the country’s army is bound to fail Had there already been a close professional relationship between the Bangladesh and Myanmar armies, that relationship could have been put to good use in de-escalating the current crisis

The Bangladesh Army and border guard have seen success in military diplomacy before In May 2014, the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) member Naik Mizanur Rahman was killed in firing by Myanmar’s Border Guard Police (BGP), causing intense tension on the border between the two countries

Later, on the instructions of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed, the then BGB Director General took the initiative to develop bilateral relations with the BGP In June of that year, he led an eighjt-member Bangladesh delegation to a meeting of the BGB and Myanmar Police Force (MPF) chiefs in Myanmar’s capital, Nay Pyi Taw

A Myanmar military commander visited Bangladesh and met its Army chief in Dhaka in an apparent attempt to improve relations and boost regional security on October 27

Bangladesh COAS Gen Shafiuddin Ahmed stated in September that Bangladesh’s

Regional peace and security will be threatened by the Rohingya repatriation s delay Military influence and diplomacy may play a decisive role in ending the Rohingya crisis

Given that Myanmar is currently governed by a military government, the military s position will be able to strengthen bilateral ties The Bangladesh Foreign Ministry can therefore develop plans and measures to end the Rohingya issue The solution to the border conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar lies in multilateral diplomacy

Although Bangladesh and Myanmar share a border of 271 km, the Rohingya refugee crisis has been a long-standing bilateral issue between Myanmar and Bangladesh But in order to assist in resolving this regional humanitarian crisis, both involved parties must participate in meaningful political dialogue To establish a long-lasting political solution, Myanmar and Bangladesh could use military diplomacy as a tactic Bangladesh and Myanmar must forge military-diplomatic ties in order to successfully handle the Rohingya repatriation process The Rohingya situation might be resolved with the use of military diplomacy and clout Military diplomatic communication is an effective strategy in strengthening relations As Myanmar is Bangladesh s only neighbouring country after India, its strategic importance is undeniable Bangladesh has tried all kinds of bilateral and multilateral efforts to deal with the ongoing Rohingya crisis, but so far, without promising results

The influence of the military on state power in Myanmar is immense Apart from that, the current Rohingya crisis falls within the ambit of the army As a result, any move to deal with the crisis without involving the country s army is bound to fail Had there already been a close professional relationship between the Bangladesh and Myanmar armies, that relationship could have been put to good use in de-escalating the current crisis

The writer is a freelance columnist

Turkey elections: Deepfakes, disinformation ‘misdirect’ voters ahead of runoff

Fa l s e c l a i m s a n d m o n t a g e v i d e o s h a ve f e a t u re d h e a v i l y i n c a m p a i g n l e a d i n g t o S u n d a y ’s p re s i d e n t i a l re r u n

AL-MONITOR A N D R E W W I L K S

Claims and counterclaims, montaged videos and even fake sex tapes have blighted Turkey’s elections, leaving fact-checkers battling to unravel a mass of disinformation during the campaign Voters return to the polling booths for a second time on Sunday to decide whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will extend his 20-year rule by another five years or if opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu will become the country’s 13th president

A lengthy electoral campaign has seen politicians from all sides make unsubstantiated assertions, further obscuring the facts in what is widely seen as Turkey’s most vital vote in recent years Probably the clearest example comes from Erdogan’s campaign in the form of a montage video purporting to show the leadership of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) backing Kilicdaroglu

The footage, first shown at an Erdogan rally in Istanbul May 7, claimed to depict de facto PKK leader Murat Karayilan and fatigue-clad fighters singing and clapping along to the opposition’s election song and was spliced with footage of Kilicdaroglu

Despite being an obvious fake, it has reinforced Erdogan’s message that the opposition is soft on terrorism due to the support Kilicdaroglu has received from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which has its roots in Turkey’s Kurdish movement and Erdogan maintains is tied to the PKK As recently as this week, Erdogan referred to the video as evidence of ties between the opposition and the PKK, which has waged a 39-year insurgency, leading to tens of thousands of deaths “Kilicdaroglu shot videos with terrorists in Qandil,” he said during an interview with state broadcaster TRT on Monday, referring to the PKK’s base in northern Iraq “Montage or not, they shot videos with them in Qandil and PKK members showed their support to Kilicdaroglu with videos,” he noted Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) has since lodged a criminal complaint against Erdogan over the claims Fact-checking organization Teyit has examined dozens of claims made during the election campaign and found inaccuracies coming from all quarters The nonprofit which was established six years ago to verify or refute claims made in traditional news outlets and on social media showed Kilicdaroglu repeating an often made claim about Erdogan s wealth that it showed to be false The claim comes from a speech Erdogan made in 1994 as he fought a successful campaign to become Istanbul mayor For years it has been claimed that he brandished his wedding ring during the speech and pledged that if he achieved greater wealth, people could call him a thief Teyit, however, showed Erdogan was holding a ring he said came from a supporter who had donated the jewelry toward his mayoral campaign He made no claims about his own finances Can Semercioglu head of communications at Teyit said disinformation as a phenomenon was present in previous elections but had become more pronounced during the current campaign In the 2023 elections we are seeing that disinformation is being voiced by politicians and used as a tool of political propaganda he told Al-Monitor In the rally squares misinformation expressed directly by politicians takes precedence over the public s right to receive accurate information We can say that it is during an election period that disinformation is decisive,” Semercioglu noted He added that promoting disinformation led to “voter misdirection” and could influence voting behavior It also poses the risk of deepening polarization in Turkish society

Some of the false claims are easy to dismiss Erdogan’s claim earlier this month that the CHP was in power at the time of the 1999 Marmara earthquake when as with February’s quakes in southern Turkey the government was heavily criticized for its poor response Although the 1999 coalition government was led by a party formed by former CHP members at the time it was Erdogan’s current ally ultranationalist leader Devlet Bahceli who was serving as deputy prime minister Other claims are more tricky such as Erdogan’s boast that a crowd of 1 7 million around one-tenth of Istanbul’s population attended his May 7 rally Teyit estimated the likely number at 690 000 Fake images are said to have played a part in one candidate Muharrem Ince of the Homeland Party withdrawing his bid for the presidency days before the first round of voting An explicit recording circulating online was quickly shown to be a fake and Ince said it had been made using footage taken from an Israeli porn website The disinformation spread on social media can also be bizarre at times such as the claim that the opposition’s two-handed “heart” gesture originated with Soviet dictator Josef Stalin According to the International Press Institute there has been an “unparalleled level of organized disinformation” during the election campaign “Truth and factual information have come under a coordinated assault from multiple sources with the government playing a central role in this troubling phenomenon ” Emre Kizilkaya head of the institute’s Turkey committee told the Reuters news agency

CHINESE, US COMMERCE CHIEFS HOLD ‘CANDID’ TALKS IN WASHINGTON

CHINA’s Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and US Commerce Secretary Gina

Raimondo held talks in Washington on Thursday engaging in candid professional and constructive exchanges on China-US economic and trade relations as well as issues of common concern, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said in a statement on its website on Friday morning

The Chinese side expressed deep concerns over the US economic and trade policy toward China, its policy on semiconductors and export controls, as well as its outbound investment review policy, according to MOFCOM

The meeting between the two ministers on top of the recent resumption of high-level engagements between Beijing and Washington is one of the most important meetings between the two countries after the US shot down an unmanned Chinese civilian airship and hyped “China threat” which drove China-US relations to a new low

Chinese experts said the ministerialexchange is of major importance as it takes the pledge by the leaders of the two countries from last year s Bali meeting to manage differences and disagreements and prevent confrontation and conflict one step further

It is believed that the meeting could help create an environment to solve, mitigate and manage differences in areas linked to trade and economic issues, the ballast stone of their bilateral ties

China and the US agreed to set up communication channels to maintain and strengthen exchanges on specific economic and trade issues in addition to areas of cooperation, said MOFCOM in a notice

The meeting between Wang and Raimondo is being closely watched as a first barometer of the chance for success between the two sides to restore high-level exchanges after months of recrimination

Chinese experts said the frank exchanges and the concerns raised by Min-

Xi vows to cement ties, expand cooperation with DRC

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday held talks with President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo with both sides vowing to elevate the bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership Bilateral cooperation in various fields has yielded fruitful results in recent years and China has been the DRC’s largest trading partner and source of foreign investment for many years in a row Xi said The two sides have forged a close community of shared interests and shared future, Xi said He expressed the belief that China s high-quality development will provide more cooperation opportunities and a broader market for the DRC and promote greater development of bilateral relations China will as always help the DRC in its economic and social development support its industrialization strategy strengthen cooperation in energy mining agriculture, infrastructure, and manufacturing, and tap the potential of cooperation in the digital economy, education, and health, Xi said, adding that China is ready to send agricultural technology experts to the DRC China hopes that the DRC will provide policy support and service convenience for Chinese enterprises to invest and do business in the DRC and foster a fair, just, and safe business environment, he said

Xi said China is ready to strengthen coordination and cooperation with the DRC in multilateral affairs jointly practice true multilateralism and uphold international fairness and justice

Noting China is the world s largest developing country and Africa is the continent with the largest number of developing countries, Xi said China and Africa have always been a community with a shared future China firmly supports Africa in pursuing an independent development path and becoming an important pole in the world’s politics economy and civilization Xi said adding that China is ready to provide new opportunities for African countries with its new development

As for his part, Tshisekedi appreciated China for its assistance and valuable support to the DRC s economic and social development over the years

The DRC firmly adheres to the one-China policy and firmly supports China’s efforts to achieve national reunification Tshisekedi said

The DRC is willing to work with China to deepen cooperation in economy, trade, resources, infrastructure, medical care and other fields, enrich the connotation of the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries and build mature, stable and groundbreaking relations for the benefit of the two peoples Tshisekedi added ister Wang addressed the core issues of China-US economic and trade relationships – the US crackdown and containment of China related to advanced technology must stop

“The concerns are clear detailed and to the punch ”

He Weiwen a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization told the Global Times on Friday If the US side is sincere on restoring and stabilizing bilateral trade and economic ties, people can expect it will take some actions to at least partially roll back cancel or alter its restrictive crackdown policies targeting China from tariffs to restrictions on Chinese firms He said The two [sides] had candid and substantive discussions on issues relating to the

US-China commercial relationship including the overall environment in both countries for trade and investment and areas for potential cooperation, according to a readout on the US Department of Commerce on Thursday US time This meeting was part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the relationship the readout said Chinese experts said that the core issues hindering China-US trade and economic ties at the moment are tariffs and the US crackdown on Chinese companies

The reestablished of communication channels will be conducive to effectively settling concerns of the two sides which means achievement from the two ministers meeting is significant, He said, noting that the move paves way for the two sides to reestablish mechanisms for more structured dialogue in the next phase

There were over 100 high-level dialogue mechanisms in place between the two countries prior to the Trumpera all of which have been suspended or have fallen away Past experiences have shown that these mechanisms help in stabilizing overall trade and economic issues as well as addressing specific and urgent issues effectively He said Raimondo also raised concerns about the recent spate of PRC actions taken against US companies operating in China, according the readout from the US Department of Commerce

I nve s t i n g i n A I : h ow t o avo i d t h e hy p e ?

PROFIT R E U T E R S

Experienced tech investors are hunting for undervalued opportunities in an over-valued space

At stake is how best to invest in the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) which took a leap forward in November when Microsoft-backed OpenAI released its ChatGPT bot, without buying into a bubble Shares in Nvidia (NVDA O), which makes computer chips that train AI systems, have almost doubled since ChatGPT’s launch The company’s stock market value at roughly $940 billion is more than double that of Europe s Nestle (NESN S) Nvidia surged some 25% on Thursday alone after forecasting a sales jump

Shares in loss-making AI software company

C3 AI, which grabbed the stock ticker , have risen 149% this year and Palantir Technologies (PLTR N) which has launched its own AI platform is up 91% year-to-date

Investors are chasing exposure to generative AI the technology run by ChatGPT that learns from analysing vast datasets to generate text, images and computer code Businesses are trying to use generative AI to speed up video editing, recruitment and even legal work Consultancy PwC sees AI-related productivity savings and investments generating $15 7 trillion worth of global economic output by 2030 almost equivalent to the gross domestic product of China

The question for investors is whether to jump on the AI train now, or exercise caution, especially given mounting concern amongst regulators about the technology’s potentially disruptive impact

There are clearly going to be winners in all this said Niall O Sullivan chief investment officer of multi-asset for EMEA, at Neuberger Berman

It s just that that s very hard to be true for the entire market ” STILL EARLY

Instead of backing hot start-ups or rushing into highly valued AI-themed businesses that might fail seasoned investors are taking a lateral view to back already proven technology companies that might benefit from the longer-term trend

It s going to be as transformative as the internet, as the mobile internet, as the mainframe computer was ” said Alison Porter a tech fund manager at Janus Henderson whose funds have positions in Nvidia with Microsoft as their largest holding

However Porter also cautions that we are still very early on the use cases for AI

She favours big tech groups like Microsoft (MSFT O) and Alphabet (GOOGL O) because they have “strong balance sheets”, that make them “able

Wall Street prepares for Treasuries mess as default looms

PROFIT

R E U T E R S

Anxiety is increasing in parts of Wall Street that rely on Treasury securities to function with some traders starting to avoid U S government debt that comes due in June and others preparing to deal with securities at risk of default

U S President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are closing in on a deal that would raise the government’s $31 4 trillion debt ceiling for two years while capping spending on most items as a June 1 “X date” approaches for when the Treasury Department has said it could run out of money to pay its bills

Treasury securities are used widely as collateral across markets

A key question for market participants is how would bonds that are maturing next month be treated if a deal is not reached in time and the Treasury is unable to pay principal and interest on debt

One such area is the $4 trillion repurchase or repo market for short-term funding used by banks money market funds and others to borrow and lend Some counterparties, including banks, were shying away from Treasury bills maturing in June in bilateral repos where the trade is between two parties said an executive at a U S fund manager who decline to be named There are 14 T-bills maturing in June

Scott Skyrm executive vice president for fixed income and repo at broker-dealer Curvature Securities, said some repo buyers or cash lenders did not want to accept any bills maturing within a year to invest in many different technology advances including their recent focus on AI

BEWARE, THE HYPE

Dizzying valuations have made some investors wary of the technology hype cycle This concept popularised by consultancy Gartner starts with a trigger such as the launch of ChatGPT followed by inflated expectations and then disillusionment Even if a technology moves to mass adoption, many early stage innovators can fail along the way

“There’s a question about where we are in that curve with AI, where the hype is so visible,” said Mark Hawtin investment director at GAM Investments There are ways to get exposure to the (AI) theme without picking something that is highly valued PICKS, SHOVELS

Janus Porter recommended backing proven companies that may be big beneficiaries in terms of providing infrastructure,” for future trends in generative AI that as of now are unclear

GAM’s Hawtin said he has also hunted out companies that provide the picks and shovels necessary for enabling new AI technology

For example, AI systems require huge volumes of data to analyse and learn from, but just 1% of global data is currently being captured, stored and used, according to Bank of America

Hawtin’s funds hold Seagate Technology (STX O) which makes hard drives and data storage products and chipmaker Marvell Technology for this reason he said

Jon Guinness, tech portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said management consultancy Accenture is in his portfolio because as businesses consider how to use AI “I strongly think you call in the experts ” STICKING TO BIG TECH

Trevor Greetham head of multi-asset at Royal London Investment Management said he was overweight in dominant tech stocks in part because AI supported their valuations, but he cautioned against AI-themed stocks

“There will be an awful lot of losing lottery tickets ” he said recalling the dotcom crash of the early 2000s

Also sticking with big tech Fidelity s Guinness said his funds hold Amazon partly because of its efforts to make AI less expensive for businesses Amazon’s Bedrock service, for example, lets companies customise generative AI models rather than invest in developing them themselves

“The big benefits of AI ” Janus’ Porter said “are going to happen over the long term

Investors want to invest in AI now and they expect things to happen now, she added But we would never blindly buy into AI and we don t do things at any price ”

Skyrm said stress began to appear in the market at the start of May with some lenders refusing to accept Treasury bills that they perceived as at risk of delayed payments in some types of trades He declined to name buyers who were not accepting T-bills I don t think counterparties want to deal with collateral around the X-date, said Jason England, global bonds portfolio manager at Janus Henderson

An executive at an independent broker-dealer in the repo market who declined to be named said they were still financing Treasury securities for now Their focus instead was on rewiring their systems in anticipation of steps that the Federal Reserve and Treasury might take to prevent a default The executive said they expected to work through the weekend to get their systems in place

At least three big banks that deal directly with the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy were also accepting all Treasury securities three sources familiar with the situation said

The dislocations in the repo market, a crucial source of funding for day-to-day operations of many financial institutions, come amid growing stress in financial markets as talks drag on in Washington A default could have devastating consequences as the $24 3 trillion treasuries market underpins not just the U S but the global economic order

To be sure, a default remains a distant possibility

Many market participants expect the Treasury will be able to continue to pay its bills after the June 1 date as it could conserve cash in other ways to prioritize debt payments

In the case that it needs to delay payments on some securities that are maturing expert groups have suggested in the past that Treasury could help markets to keep functioning by extending the socalled operational maturity date The proposal, detailed in a December 2021 contingency planning document prepared by an expert group calls for extending the maturities of securities at risk of default by one day at a time

That could allow the security to be technically traded and available for settlement on the Fedwire Securities

Service system used for government debt However, the group warned that it would need many brokerdealers to adjust their trading systems to also be able to do so and the consequences of a delay in payments on securities would still be severe

The broker-dealer executive said the process was cumbersome because maturity dates subsumed several other calculations about the value of the security Extending the maturities required the firm to “basically break their own system,” the executive said Even so allowing the security to default would be worse “If you don’t extend the date I really don’t know what happens the executive added

Gun and knife attack in Japan leaves four dead