10 minute read

RuSSIan SanCTIOnS ShIfT OIL PRICe MakIng POweR TO aSIa fROM euROPe

profIt reuters wESTERNsanctions on Russian and Iranian oil have channelled cheap fuel to Asia and in the process eroded a decades-long trend whereby the continent has paid more for energy than Europe, according to traders, analysts and Refinitiv Eikon data.

Analysts and government officials from consumer countries use the term Asian premium to refer to the higher prices Asian importers have paid for oil sold by big exporters, such as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Advertisement

For Asia, a weakened premium amounts to an economic stimulus, highlighting another unintended consequence of the Western sanctions on oil and gas exporter Moscow, which also led to a surge in the amount Europeans have paid for natural gas.

“It’s safe to say that some major consumers in Asia, most notably India and China, are the major winners of the sanctions,” Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Western Sanctions have led Russia to sell more than twice as much crude to Asia in the year to January, according to Kepler data. Iran, under US sanctions, has boosted exports to the highest in three years on some estimates, with China as the biggest buyer.

Russia’s flagship export blend Urals, which before the Ukraine invasion was sold in Europe at a few dollars a barrel below the value of benchmark dated Brent, is being sold in Asia at a discount of minus $24, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. Some industry sources, asking not to be named, say the discount is narrower at $10-$15 per barrel.

Even at a discount of around $15 per barrel, a refinery in India processing 200,000 barrels per day would save $3 million a day on its crude purchases compared to a European rival. On an annual basis, the saving would exceed $1 billion.

Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s oil minister, said in early February the country will keep buying from Russia if prices “continue to be good”.

Price-takers and makers europe loses supply source India was among those to have complained about the Asian premium they paid to the big exporters.

The Asian premium dates back to when producer countries began issuing market prices for their crude in the 1980s, and they could be higher for buyers in Asia, who were more dependent on imports, making them price-takers.

Asian buyers have made previous attempts to erode the premium, investing in refining capacity to boost their demand and improve their negotiating power.

Saudi Arabia and other leading exporters have reflected the current shifts in significantly lower official selling prices (OSPs) expressed as differentials to regional benchmarks.

In the three months to February, Saudi Arabia reduced prices for its flagship Arab Light for Asian buyers – although it has increased the prices for April- and March-loading crude.

Even so, since November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the differential for Arab Light sold in Asia by $3.35 a barrel.

The differential for sales to Europe basis Ras Tanura has been increased over the same period by 10 cents a barrel.

Other big OPEC exporters Iraq and Kuwait have also reduced their OSPs to Asia since November. Iraq, the only one of the two which also issues prices for Europe, has cut the differentials for Basrah Medium and Heavy to Asia and increased them to Europe.

“Iran and now Russia increasingly compete on price and the other Middle East producers must adjust their prices accordingly – the result being relatively higher selling prices to Europe,” Saxo Bank’s Hansen said.

“The Asians used to have less options than the rest of the world as their pricing needed to attract long-haul exports,” said Jorge Montepeque, who during decades working at S&P Global Platts, developed the dated Brent pricing benchmark. “So by definition the Asians had to pay up, while Europe and America had indigenous supplies.”

Now, with Europe losing Russian crude as a source of supply, the continent needs to draw oil from further afield and “in theory, the Middle East pricing becomes worse for the Europeans,” he said.

The outright price of Arab Light crude, according to an approximation based on Refinitiv data, in Europe moved closer to parity and sometimes exceeded that for Asia in 2023.

In 2021 and early 2022, the price in

SCO members to consider jointly developing emerging fuel projects

Asia was mostly at a premium, as shown by the chart below.

‘no free market’ Neil Atkinson, an independent analyst and former senior International Energy Agency official, said the drop in Russia’s Western shipments and its discounted Indian sales were making the Asian premium redundant.

“These normal sorts of patterns of Asian premium or discount don’t really apply,” he said. “The circumstances are so extraordinary. We don’t have essentially the free market that we would have in normal times.”

In another example of firmer European crude markets, Norwegian Johan Sverdrup crude on February 16 was offered at a premium to dated Brent, up from a $5.15 discount in late November. It is unclear whether it found a buyer.

Sverdrup, from Europe’s largestproducing oilfield, made its market debut in 2020. Initially, most shipments went to Asia.

After the imposition of sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine began in February last year, most of the shipments of Sverdrup remain in Europe and have replaced the Russian Urals for many refiners.

Not all see Europe paying elevated prices for the longer term as other suppliers, from which Asia is buying less fill the gap – and an end to the Ukraine war could restore the flow of Russian crude.

“Once the war is over, I believe some normality will return and eventually sanctions will be lifted allowing Russia to compete on equal terms for customers,” Saxo Bank’s Hansen said.

Chinese Premier’s down-to-earth approach charms the world

ISLAMABAD Mian abrar

Chinese Premier Li Qiang held his first press conference as China’s premier on Monday morning, during which he addressed various key issues concerning the Chinese economy, vowing to further stabilize growth, prices and employment, while making new progress on high-quality development, supporting private businesses and continuing to open up China’s market to the world.

Li’s remarks, coming just two days after he was endorsed as Chinese Premier on Saturday, reflected his down-to-earth approach after working at various levels of local governments in economic powerhouses in eastern China, which inspires confidence among private businesses and the broader Chinese society about the country’s economic and social development prospect, economists said. challenges vs bright future: During the press conference which lasted about 82 minutes, Li, with a steadfast tone and great eloquence, addressed risks and challenges facing the Chinese economy headon and projected confidence in its future prospects.

On the government’s GDP growth target of around 5 percent for 2023, Li said the target was set after taking into account all factors, but China’s economic output has exceeded 120 trillion yuan, the base is very high and there is no shortage of new challenges this year. “To achieve the 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of around 5 percent on the current high base of China’s economic output is no easy task and requires redoubled efforts ,” Li said. The Premier said that the emphasis will be placed on ensuring stable growth, employment and prices, and the key to seeking progress lies in making new advancement in high-quality development. Specifically, China will make good use of a number of policy mixes in leveraging macro policies, expanding demand, advancing reform and innovation, and preventing and defusing risks, Li said, adding that the country will enrich, adjust and improve these policies in the course of implementation.

Despite the challenges, China also enjoys a series of advantages in its economic and social development, including a vast market, a complete industrial system, abundant human resources, solid foundation for development, and most importantly, notable institutional strength, Li said, noting he is fully confident of China’s economic prospect. “[China’s economy] will break winds and waves and sail toward a bright future.” The Premier’s remarks, particularly his down-to-earth ap- proach and his eloquence, boosted confidence in China’s development.

Notably, following the press conference, Chinese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gaining 1.2 percent, even as stock markets in most of Asia Pacific were down due largely to the fallout of the collapse of two banks in the US. “In general, [the press conference] was down-toearth with vernaculars that ordinary people can understand,” Tian Yun, a Beijing-based economist, told the Global Times on Monday, noting that the most impressive thing was the focus on promoting the practice of research and studies among officials at all levels.

As part of efforts to improve the conduct of the government, Li said that government officials at all levels will be encouraged to engage more with local communities to learn about what the people need and seek their opinions on the work of the government.

“I have worked at the local level for a long time and I have a deep feeling: When sitting in the office, there are all problems; but when going into the grassroots, there are solutions. The bests are among the people,” Li said. Throughout the press conference, the Premier also repeatedly referred to his experience working in local governments.

TPL Life onboards

15,000 potential life insurance agents on ‘Muavin’

TPL Life Insurance Limited, Pakistan’s 1st InsurTech enterprise in the innovative insurance business, has launched the country’s most revolutionary Virtual Life Insurance Agent Learning & Earning Platform – “Muavin.” A means for every Pakistani to create an alternate or regular income stream by selling TPL Life’s insurance products. The user can sign-up for free on Muavin, complete the learning phase while referring to available video lectures & course material, become a certified Muavin, start selling from anywhere in Pakistan, and earn a commission for successful sales. A means for every Pakistani to create an alternate or regular income stream by selling TPL Life’s insurance products. The user can sign-up for free on Muavin, complete the learning phase while referring to available video lectures & course material, become a certified Muavin, start selling from anywhere in Pakistan, and earn a commission for successful sales. pr

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) said on Tuesday that its members, including Russia, China and India, would consider jointly developing emerging fuel projects to connect countries emerging as major fuel producers and consumers. Energy ministers from the regional bloc, which also includes Pakistan and four Central Asian nations, met virtually on Tuesday when member states agreed on the need for greater collaboration in the emerging fuels sector, according to a joint statement.

LAHORE: Spotify hosts first-ever gig in Pakistan under “Pakka Hit Hai” flagship at COLABS featuring Abdul Hannan and Taha G. pr

Building Infrastructure Vital for country’s Sustainability

Karachi: InfraZamin collaborated with Nutshell Group to jointly host Pakistan’s first ever Infrastructure Summit at a local hotel in Karachi. Infrastructure development helps reduce unemployment and stimulates economic growth. In his welcome address, Muhammad Azfar Ahsan, Founder & CEO, Nutshell Group, and former Minister of State & Chairman, Board of Investment, said, “For infrastructure, we need political stability for an empowered public sector funding and though there is a huge potential for economic growth through foreign direct investment, we need to focus on the local investors first and mobilize that money on priority.” A means for every Pakistani to create an alternate or regular income stream by selling TPL Life’s insurance products. The user can sign-up for free on Muavin, complete the learning phase while referring to available video lectures & course material, become a certified Muavin, start selling from anywhere in Pakistan, and earn a commission for successful sales. Continuing the discussion, Layth Al-Falaki, CEO GuarantCo, said, “Development now is ‘climate resilience’ and Pakistan being a frontline state for climate crisis needs to inbuild the SDGs into its vision. Now is the right time to invest in climate-resilient projects to rebuild infrastructure in the country.” pr

Karachi’s development is uplift of Pakistan: Commissioner

KARACHI: Commissioner Karachi, Iqbal the Memon, has said that Karachi is the economic hub of the country, its development is the development of Pakistan, it is the city of all of us, and we all have to take it forward together. He was addressing the annual dinner of the English Speaking Union Pakistan as a chief guest at the residence of Kaleem Farooqui, in DHA. On this occasion, the host Kaleem Farooqui, and President International Council, Pattern Chief Aziz Memon also addressed. Commissioner Karachi added that the government cannot do anything alone, for this, businessmen, industrialists, and people from other sectors have to come forward. Organized the 3rd Marathon Race, in which 40 thousand people participated, this important event was organized with the support of the National Bank of Pakistan, he said that the government is paying special attention to sports in Karachi. pr

Commander Bahrain National Guard Calls on Air Chief

Commander Bahrain

National Guard, General

Shaikh Mohammed Bin

Isa Bin Salman Al Khalifa called on Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu, Chief of the Air Staff, Pakistan Air Force during his visit to Air Headquarters, Islamabad today. During the meeting, several key areas of mutual interest along with regional developments were discussed. On his arrival, a smartly turned out contingent of Pakistan Air Force presented General Shaikh Mohammed Bin Isa Bin Salman Al Khalifa the guard of honour. Later the visiting dignitary was introduced to the Principal Staff Officers. He also laid floral wreath on the martyrs' monument.Chief of the Air Staff shared broad contours of PAF's modernization plan of smart acquisitions from allied countries, upgradation of infrastructure and revamping of training. pr

SKMCH hosts carnival in Lahore to mark Int’l Childhood Cancer Day

To mark International Childhood Cancer Day, Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre in Lahore organiseda carnival for children with cancer. A large number of patients and their families attended the event. The hospital annuallyorganises such activities to provide psychological relief for young children going through the challenging and stressful cancer journey. At the event, children enjoyed various activities including jumping castle, movies, and a puppet show. Generous donors and organisations, including Total Parco, Pearl Continental Hotel, Outfitters, McDonald's, CureMD, Shakarganj, Habib Metro, Soneri Bank, Haleeb Foods, Teradata and LUMS, distributed gifts at the event, bringing smiles to paediatric cancer patients. pr

First Pakistan Navy Ship carrying relief goods reaches Syria

IslAmAbAd:First Pakistan Navy Ship PNS NASR carrying relief goods for earthquake affectees reached Syria. The ship is currently deployed on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) mission to Syria &Turkiye. The HADR mission is aimed to provide support from people of Pakistan to the earthquake affectees of brotherly countries. Upon arrival at port Lattakia (Syria), the ship was received by Governor of Lattakia, Federal Minister of Education, Ambassador of Pakistan to Syria, Cdr of Syrian Naval Forces and other dignitaries. Approx. 665 Tons of relief goods comprising blankets, warm clothing and ration were handed. pr

Careem removes ‘Peak Charge’ on bikes, rickshaws amid high inflation

KARACHI: Careem, the leading ride-hailing service in Pakistan, announces to remove ‘peak charge’ on its bikes and rickshaws categories across Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore. The initiative is taken in light of the recent economic situation in Pakistan where inflation and global fuel prices are at an all-time high. Speaking about the announcement, Muhammad Imran Saleem, General Manager – Ride Hailing at Careem Pakistan, said. pr

This article is from: