The wandering balloon episode shows Biden's lack of crisis management

years: There were 279 incidents in 2017, 322 in 2016 208 in 2015 222 in 2014 and 170 in 2013, the year before Modi came to power

WHAT’S REALLY AT PLAY

The Indian government had claimed that Article 370 restricted people’s participation in the political process and led to a few families dominating the politics of the region However, since 2019, Modi s Bharatiya Janata Party has taken steps to further disempower local Kashmiris

Awandering balloon - an utterly harmless civilian airship used for meteorological research, blown by wind and accidentally entered into US airspace via Westerlies - has made the US, a superpower which shows off its military muscles around the world, react as if it were confronted by a formidable enemy

However data published by the Indian government’s Ministry of Home Affairs and made public by Rai calls a bluff on those claims Total investment in 2021-22 in Jammu and Kashmir stood at $46m, down from $50 5m the previous year and dramatically less than the $102 8m spent in 2017-18

While the COVID-19 pandemic no doubt affected Kashmir ’s economy, the statistics suggest that wasn’t the biggest factor in investments drying up After all, the steepest fall in investments came the year that the Indian government ended Kashmir s semi-autonomous status, before the pandemic, halving from $72 3m in 2018-19 to $36 3m in 2019-20

T R A C K T H E B U L L E T S : T h i n g s a r e n ’t m u c h b e t t e r o n t h e s e c u r i t y front Although political protests have s u b s i d e d b e c a u s e m o s t p r o - i n d e p e nd e n c e l e a d e r s h a v e b e e n i m p r i s o n e d , armed groups appear to have changed their tactics

Attacks on civilians have increased in the last few years and are increasingly being directed at non-resident Hindus and the minority Kashmiri Pandit community A S Dulat, the former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency, recently highlighted the sophistication of these attacks The targeted killings, he said, demonstrated that the armed groups have a strong intelligence network and possibly have members within the government

At least 18 Kashmiri Pandits and non-resident Hindus have been killed in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370

As with the economy the Indian government’s own data does not support claims that armed groups have been contained The number of attacks by such groups was 229 in 2021, not significantly different from many previous

First constituency boundaries for the region’s legislature were redrawn in a way that gives Hindu-majority Jammu a greater say in elections than its population, relative to Muslim-majority Kashmir ’s, merits In effect, that strengthens the chances of the BJP coming to power in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir

T h e n a r e v i s i o n o f t h e v o t e r l i s t was carried out, giving voting rights to outsiders Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir is home to hundreds of thous a n d s o f m i g r a n t w o r k e r s a n d a r m y p er s o n n el if allo w ed to v o te, th eir electoral influence is going to be significant

Some Kashmiri leaders have invoked the region s 1987 elections which were allegedly rigged and were considered a tipping point when the armed separatist movement in Kashmir took off M e a n w h i l e , a r m e d g r o u p s m a y continue to adopt attacks on non-local c i v i l i a n s a s t h e m a i n s t a y o f t h e i r s t r a t e g y t o s i g n a l t h e i r o p p o s i t i o n t o d e m o g r a p h i c c h a n g e s a t t e m p t e d b y N e w D e l h i

While Kashmiris and non-locals alike suffer, there is no reason to expect that Modi and his government will change their policy towards the region The BJP’s hardline approach towards Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir helps it bolster its image in the rest of India as a party that is tough on “terrorism and separatism The truth of course is more complicated The BJP’s policies have led to increased insecurity for people living in the region whether they’re Hindu or Muslim And there has been no economic payoff, either

Maknoon Wani is a researcher and a n i n c o m i n g g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t a t O xford Internet Institute University of Oxford Maknoon has extensively covered t h e K a s h m i r c o n f l i c t , i n t e r n e t s h u td o w n s a n d a n t i - m i n o r i t y h a t e s p e e c h in India His interest also lies in technology policy and internet governance

Members of Congress shrieked about the so-called threats to US national security, as if Doomsday was approaching Amid the screams the balloon turned into a target of a US F-22 fighter jet's "first kill " The act of rudely damaging Chinese civilian property quickly drew criticism from Chinese Foreign Ministry and Chinese Ministry of National Defense

However in the US the political farce surrounding the wandering balloon is continuing, which helps us comprehensively understand the main challenge confronting China-US ties as well as the ill nature of US domestic politics

Compared with the frank, open and calm manner of the Chinese authorities the performances of some US politicians in the current Biden administration can be said as hysterical

According to a statement of US Department of Defense issued on Saturday, "the balloon did not pose a military or physical threat Chinese balloons briefly transited the continental United States at least three times during the prior administration " The US is the world's largest military superpower In December 2022, US President Joe Biden approved a record $858 billion defense spending bill for 2023 The figure not only ranks the first on global scale, but is also more than the military expenditure of the next nine countries combined Yet the superpower somehow freaks out about a wandering balloon, which exposes it as a paper tiger From the perspective of modern military technology, balloons have long been logged off from mainstream military toolkits The use of balloons especially the type involved in the latest incident, which can be sent to the Earth s stratosphere, is for collecting meteorological information

Yet Politico magazine made a "serious" analysis, claiming they are cheap, can carry a lot and can hang out for a long time" for "surveillance missions " To put it bluntly, this is deliberately pretending to be anxious If such balloons were as efficient as surveillance equipment, they would have appeared in the Pentagon s purchase list long ago Anyone who understands this technology knows that US satellite surveillance system, as well as regular closein reconnaissance toward China, are the ones that can be described as aggressive and amok

Seeing how the incident was hyped up in the US, people can clearly see that US domestic political struggles are compressing the room for Washington to make responsible decisions for crisis management and strategies for stability

In light of the historical development of the strategic games of great powers after World War II crisis management and strategic stability require effective communication and exchanges among major countries on emergencies based on facts and seeking truth from facts

In the practice of China-US relations, the US has been talking about crisis management all the time with various terms and concepts including "setting guardrails " Now, when the west wind blows over a balloon, time has arrived to show US' rational prudent professional and responsible attitude But how it turned out?

Political figures in Washington are jumping up and down yelling and screaming seizing the opportunity to show their toughness and firmness, without the decency or grace they are supposed to have and they have made China-US ties the victim of political infighting among different factions, when they are hitting and biting one another They are extremely irresponsible

Another manifestation of such irresponsibility is displayed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's reportedly planned visit to China It is supposed to be a follow-up of the China-US summit in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022 But the US side seems to have mistakenly believed that Blinken's Beijing trip is some kind of gift from the US to China, and the US side can make it work if it likes, and can cancel the trip if it doesn t

As Chinese Foreign Ministry points out, "One of the tasks of the diplomatic teams on both sides is to properly manage bilateral relations, particularly to manage some unexpected situations in a cool-headed and prudent manner In fact, neither side has ever announced that there would be a visit It is a matter for the US to make its latest announcement, and we respect that That being said be it the narrative that Blinken was planning to visit China, or the reports that the trip was postponed, they are all monologues from the US which are not in line with either diplomatic management or the rulesbased laws that the US has been talking a lot, or the consensus reached by the two sides after consultation The one-man show of the US will do no good to help China-US relations back to the sound track as soon as possible

The wandering balloon episode echoes an old Chinese saying - life can be really simple, but some insist on making it complicated The reaction from the US is bringing troubles on oneself It is hoped the US diplomatic team can amend its improper approach break away from the shackles of American political infighting, manage bilateral ties in a truly responsible manner meet the Chinese side half way and calmly and prudently deal with emergencies and accidents That is crucial to both the China-US ties and the world

The author is director of the Research Institution for Global Cyberspace Governance at Fudan University

US-China war by 2025: A self-fulfilling prophecy?

The world powers

“IH O P E I am wrong My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan reportedly wrote in a memo to his officers, obtained by media outlets The message instructs AMC personnel to train and get their affairs in order so that they are “legally ready and prepared ”

This prediction is the most direct and blunt yet from an American official on the prospect of a potential conflict between the US and China, besides President Joe Biden s indications that the US would intervene on the side of Taiwan if China invaded Of course, Minihan is not a policymaker, and the memo is not an official statement of US military policy towards China But the influence of the US military and by extension, the military-industrial complex, on US foreign policymaking and on the mood in Washington in general, should not be underestimated

The reality is, especially as seen in Ukraine, that the risk of a major-power conflict is arguably at the highest it has ever been since the end of World War II or the height of the Cold War That is because the US sees itself as a rightful and permanent global hegemon It also sees the competition catching up, however, and is ready to use all means necessary, and to take massive risks, to prevent the rise of rival powers As such the US and China risk falling into the so-called, “Thucydides Trap,” which is described as “an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon”

The current distribution of power in the world is described as emerging multipolarity Following three decades of American unipolarity, when the US ruled unchallenged, a number of emerging powers are changing the international order Multipolarity differs from bipolarity,” where two powers compete for hegemony, the best known example being the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War While bipolarity brings a form of stability, as the m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t i e s o f b o t h p o w e r s a r e e v e n l y matched and the stakes of a potential conflict are ext r e m e l y h i g h , h i s t o r y s h o w s m u l t i p o l a r i t y t y p i c a l l y b r i n g s i n s t a b i l i t y a s i t c r e a t e s a n i n s e c u r e , u n p r edictable, and competitive international environment u l t i m a t e l y c o m b u s t e d i n t o t h e F i r s t Wo r l d Wa r A s c o m p e t i n g w o r l d p o w e r s e x p a n d e d t h e i r i m p e r i a l i s t ambitions they sought to contain others by forming alliances and starting arms races S o u n d s f a m i l i a r ? I t s h o u l d To d a y ’s w o r l d h a s some disturbing parallels The US - an insecure hegem o n w h o s e r e l a t i v e p o w e r i s d i m i n i s h i n g a s o t h e r world powers emerge - is desperately seeking to degrade, undermine and contain its rivals by triggering arms races and expanding alliance systems Already, the focus on expanding NATO has provoked the conflict in Ukraine, but worse still, the Biden administration is actively seeking to expand that model to East Asia against China, in the form of blocs such as the Quad and AUKUS

While these alliance systems are in theory supposed to establish deterrence and project American power, in practice history shows this behaviour only provokes, rather than prevents, conflict The Cold War is the only exception in all history, and the Ukraine conflict has only affirmed this Because when one state seeks to arm itself with the focus of deliberately targeting another the other responds, creating an escalatory cycle Each state therefore races to enhance their capabilities with the goal of responding to the other and the cycle becomes self-reinforcing

How do arms races break out into wars? The answer is that in a climate of growing political paranoia, suspicion and distrust which comes with these military tensions, some states like to ask themselves “what happens if they attack me first?” or “are they planning an attack?”

The danger stems from when a state perceives that it is facing military containment, or a potential pre-emptive attack, their “only choice” is to attack first and land the first blow This is again rooted in the lessons of history from World War I

Once Austria-Hungary (an ally of Germany) declared war on Serbia, Germany believed that war with France (an ally of Russia) was inevitable Therefore, the decision was made to pre-emptively attack France, through Belgium Why is this relevant today? Because what if at some point, China decides it has no choice but to attack the US or Japan first, before they step in with force of arms to protect Taiwan? Rest assured, we aren t quite there yet, and Beijing is normally risk averse when it comes to this kind of thing

The comments by the US general are, of course, overly dramatic, at least at this point Yet they are dangerous because they reflect the sentiment that sooner or later, war is inevitable, and when it is believed that war is inevitable it is treated as such and thus war becomes a reality Right now, it might seem unthinkable, but so were many other wars in the past As the US continues to drive up tensions with Beijing a tipping point or a miscalculation, becomes ever more likely, and that’s where the danger lies

corporate corner M u r a D o K ay S $ 4 . 1 M f o r M o D e r n

Communic ations Ministr y, NHA renew suppor t for K ashmiri brethren

ISLAMABAD: The officials of National Highway Authority and Ministry of Communications across the country, expressed solidarity with Kashmiri brethren facing brutal attacks at the hands of Indian troops in held valley of Kashmir It is to recall that February 05, is observed as the Kashmir Solidarity Day On this occasion, National Highway Authority, as per directive of Federal Minister for Communications and Postal services Mr Asad Mahmood and under supervision of Federal Secretary Communications and Chairman NHA Capt (R) Mohammad Khurram Agha, placed pictorial banners, posters, placards, billboards and brochures at buildings of NHA Headquarters, regional offices located in the country AJK and Gilgit Baltistan and all the toll plazas situated on motorways and national highways networks In his statement, condemning the Indian atrocities in occupied Kashmir Asad Mahmood urged the comity of nations to play their due active role for implementation of United Nations resolutions on Kashmir speaking for giving the right of self determination to the Kashmiris p R

AIOU holds Kashmir solidarity walk, seminar

ISLAMABAD: Allama Iqbal Open University (AIOU) observed Kashmir Solidarity Day with full determination and enthusiasm A Kashmir solidarity day Walk and Seminar was organized, and different radio programs were broadcasted throughout the day regarding Kashmir, various events were also organized in other regional offices of the AIOU including Muzaffarabad, Rawalkot and Mirpur The walk was led by the Registrar, AIOU, Raja Umar Younis Principal officers, faculty members, officers and students of the university also participated in the walk The walk started from the main gate of the university and ended at the Vice Chancellor Secretariat The participants of the walk carried placards and banners with the message of solidarity Director General Regional Services, Dr Malik Tauqeer Ahmad Khan presided the seminar Registrar, Raja Umar Younis, Director Students Advisory and Counseling Services, Syed Ghulam Kazim Ali, Dr Abdul Basit Mujahid and Dr Samiullah Zuberi were among other speakers Three students (Hiba Fatima, Iman Fatima and Ilham Rafiq) highlighted the Kashmir issue in their speeches Vice Chancellor, Prof Dr Nasir Mehmood said in his message that Kashmiris should get the right of selfdetermination according to the resolutions of the United Nations Dr Nasir further said that every citizen of Pakistan is standing with Kashmiri brothers and will continue to support them for the freedom of Kashmir

I E S CO to eradicate elec tricity pilferage: CE

ISLAMABAD: Electricity theft is certainly a religious, moral and national crime which is highly condemnable act Indiscriminate and intensive operations are going on in the IESCO region for the elimination of electricity theft, which is being directly supervised by Chief Executive IESCO Dr Muhammad Amjad Khan According to the details, during the month of January 2023, IESCO operation, M&T and surveillance Directorate teams identified 3423 meters in which 3361 meters were found slow, direct supply of electricity was being taken from 57 meters while 5 meters were being tampered and using the electricity illegally

C y b e r K n I f e M a C h I n e S at J P M C

SI N D H Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah announced a grant equivalent to $4 1 million Patients Aid Foundation (PAF) to replace the old Cyberknife machines and equipment with the latest technology at Jinnah Post Medical Centre (JPMC) so that patients from all over the country could be benefited

This he said while speaking at a signing ceremony of the Agreement between the Sindh government and the Patients’ Aid Foundation for developing a working partnership at Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre (JPMC) Karachi for different projects, particularly the Cube knife here at a local hotel on Sunday The programme was attended by Advisor Law Murtaza Wahab Parliamentary Secretary Qasim Soomro, Secretary Health Zulfiqar Shah, Executive Director JPMC Prof Shahid Rasool and donors and philanthropists

The CM said that he has been told that the Cyberknife facility has a waiting list of around 2,000 patients In order to address this grave situation the chief minister also announced the Enhancement of t h e A n n u a l G r a n t t o t h e P a t i e n t s A i d F o u n d a t i o n from Rs340 million to Rs540 million from the next financial year

Patients’ Aid Foundation (PAF) has been serving the poor and needy patients at the Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre (JPMC) Karachi since 1991

Mr Shah said that after the devolution of JPMC to the Sindh government the Patients’ Aid Foundation (PAF) has enhanced its bed capacity from 1100 to 2208 beds for which his government has already notified this new bed strength for the next fiscal year budget for the JPMC

The CM said that the PAF has installed two Cyberknife and Tomotherapy which were jointly operated by the Sindh govt and the PAF “Alhamdulillah, through this joint effort today JPMC is amongst the top 10 centers in the world having two Cyberknifes & Tomotherapy and is the only center on the planet that offers absolutely free cancer treatment with cutting edge technology irrespective of nationality reli-

C hina a potentially big market for Pakistani potato

S ta f f R e p o Rt

China is a potentially big market for Pakistani potato, because the price of potato in China is higher, especially from January to April every year Gwadar Pro quoting Syed Ijaz ul Hassan, director of Potato Research Institute Sahiwal reported “We can say that potatoes are cultivated and harvested in Pakistan in some form around the whole year We have three crops of potatoes The first is called Autumn crop

We sow it in October and harvest it in February The second is an imported variety, which is harvested from January to April The third is the hill crop cultivated from April to September ” Syed explained

Syed also mentioned that the appearce of Pakistan potato can be a plus point In international markets like Dubai’s market they demand Pakistan’s potatoes more because of their beauty and color If we use this advantage, we can export to China China has a large market If we cannot export fresh potatoes then we can export them as starch and frozen fries too The report added Potato is one of the very rare cases in which Pakistan is not just self-sufficient for domestic use and seed development, but also an exporter

During the first four months of the current fiscal year, overall vegetable exports of Pakistan swelled by 90 percent in quantity and 57pc in value thanks to brisk potato shipments