Pakistan on the brink: What for the World

SERIES OF DISASTERS INCLUDING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING, POLITICAL PAR ALYSIS, EXPLODING difficult sell ahead of consequential elections planned for later this year

Meanwhile there are already signs that economic pressure will impact Pakistanis’ most basic needs in late January, Pakistan suffered an unprecedented nationwide blackout as power went down across the entire country for over 24 hours Though the cause of the outage is unclear, it could be a preclude for what lies ahead

“The electricity generation capacity of Pakistan is significantly dependent on the continued import of fuel,” said Yousuf Nazar, a Pakistani economic analyst and former banking executive “You can imagine what would happen if we started to see power breakdowns and outages, or even shortages of fuel for transportation, at a time when the country is also dealing with 40 percent inflation ”

The compounding crises, particularly serious for a debt-ridden economy with no solid political leadership and a kleptocratic elite have been a long time coming While much of asia has gradually become rich and stable over the past few decades, Pakistan has remained poor chaotic and volatile

“During globalization and the liberalization of trade that happened across asia during the 1990s, Pakistan was busy playing power games between the military and civilian elites,” Nazar said “This present crisis was brewing long before the Ukraine war, which was the straw that finally broke the camel s back

Pakistan’s economy has long been characterized by an abysmally corrupt set of policies designed to provide subsidies to civilian elites and military officials while neglecting the vast majority of the population who work in industries like agriculture and textiles But the infusion of foreign money that bankrolled the lavish lifestyles of Pakistani elites seems to be drying up Saudi arabia, a longtime donor to Pakistan, announced last month that future aid packages to foreign countries would be dependent on internal market reforms a clear warning to recipients like Egypt and Pakistan whose economies are characterized by bloated public sectors and military control The United arab Emirates recently committed to providing some financial assistance to Pakistan but the amount is barely enough to cover imports of vital goods for a few more weeks

Meanwhile, China, which holds 30 percent of Pakistan’s debt, has so far shown no willingness to renegotiate terms, while the United States has largely tuned out from the region after its bitter exit from afghanistan

Pakistan’s relationship with india, its economically ascendant neighbor now led by a hawkish hindu nationalist government also shows no signs of improvement

“Many people talk about what sets india and Pakistan apart in terms of their economic trajectories, especially since until the 1980s Pakistan’s trajectory was more positive There are so many factors one could mention in terms of years of bad policies, but one must also talk about the issue of elite capture ” said Michael Kugelman deputy director of the asia Program at the Wilson Center india has made efforts to implement policies that move closer to things like universal education and access to health care,” he continued, “whereas in Pakistan, those with the power simply have disregarded the economic needs of the people

The economic crisis is coupled with political instability that could weaken the hold of the state and make Pakistan progressively more difficult to govern with each passing year

Following his removal from power last year during a conflict with his onetime supporters in the military that he claimed was a U S -led conspiracy, imran Khan has been staging mass rallies aimed at reinstalling himself as prime minister amid a wave of targeted killings and arrests of his allies and supporters, Khan was himself wounded in an assassination attempt last November when a gunman shot him during an election rally a polarizing figure in Pakistani politics, Khan boasts a large and committed base had he been killed, it is easy to imagine Pakistan devolving into widespread civil conflict as things stand now, all the major political parties, despite their fierce differences, are invested in keeping the country intact and the military remains a powerful final arbiter over politics But toxic political infighting and frequent changes in leadership have made responsible stewardship of the economy even more difficult setting Pakistan down the path toward deeper problems

“Fragmentation of the state is not possible, but we could see a deep-seated economic crisis that pushes many people below the poverty line, puts simple commodities out of reach, increases food insecurity, and also foments anger among the public,” said arif Rafiq, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East institute and specialist on Pakistan “That can have real political consequences not just for political parties, but also for the army if you’re unable to meet the economic needs of the people and just respond with force it will only catalyze greater anger ” in recent months, Pakistan has seen a resurgence of terrorism from radical islamist groups, as well as ethnic militants in the resource-rich province of Balochistan

The Pakistani Taliban, which killed thousands of Pakistanis during the war on terror, announced its return with a horrifying suicide attack last month that killed over 100 congregants attending Friday prayers at a mosque The attack is a warning sign that instability in neighboring afghanistan which suffered tens of thousands of deaths over the past two decades of U S occupation, may once again impact Pakistan

The economic and political crises have also extended to the slow-going recovery of millions across the country after the historic flooding last year that put roughly onethird of Pakistan s landmass under water and displaced millions of its poorest citizens

Though the disaster can be blamed in part on climate change driven by wealthy countries international aid has been slow and meager, leaving Pakistan mostly on its own to pick up the pieces

Former Prime Minister asif ali zardari notorious for his outlandish personal corruption, once reportedly told U S diplomat Richard holbrooke that Pakistan was too big to fail likening the country to U S banks that received massive bailouts to prevent collapse in 2008 although Pakistan is a nuclear power, as well as the fifth most populated country in the world whether its leaders can pull themselves together and find a way out of the onslaught of crises perhaps the worst in the country s history remains to be seen

“There is tremendous uncertainty, as people don’t know whether Pakistan will simply just default on its foreign loans sometime this year Rafiq said There is heightened risk across the board, and every major indicator has taken a turn downward it is hard to see a pathway to stability because the government s legitimacy comes from its ability to handle the economy and things are not going to get better in the foreseeable future ”

Guardian

G o r d o n B r ow n sh a z i a Ramzan has spent most of her young life fighting for her right – and the right of all girls – to go to school in 2012 at the age of 14, sitting alongside her friend Malala

Yousafzai on a bus that was going from school to her home in the Swat valley in the north of Pakistan, she was shot at by an extremist intent on stopping girls from getting an education She suffered injuries from which she Malala and their friend Kainat took months to recover N o w c o m p l e t i n g a n u r s i n g d e g r e e a t E d i n b u rg h U n i v e r s i t y a n d p r e p a r i n g t o s t a r t h e r o w n n u r s e s training school in Pakistan, Shazia almost always has the needs of girls in her home area in her thoughts in her time between classes she is raising funds for Pakistani charities that are quietly but effectively helping afghan girls who have been losing out on their education since the Taliban shut them out of the country s secondary schools

There are 5 million girls in afghanistan who are currently out of school, and they urgently need our support Many have risked everything by demonstrating in the streets of Kabul While sooner or later the regime will find that they cannot forever oppress brave women who have known what it is like to be free, for now the young protesters face arrest and torture

Theirs is an untold story of courage and resilience Girls in afghanistan are also at risk of punishment beatings if they attend underground schools run by their parents and teachers Many more are fleeing across the border into exile in Pakistan in the hope of an education

But, sadly, those who have crossed the border are joining Pakistan s ever-lengthening queue for schooling that is already 23 million children long This is not just because of the country’s recent floods, which have closed 27,000 schools, but because of Pakistan s longterm failure to invest in girls’ education

S t e p b a c k a n d t h e p i c t u r e b e c o m e s e v e n g r a v e r : these girls are only a fraction of the world s 222 million crisis-affected children who are in dire need of educational support Of them, 78 2 million, including 42 million girls, do not go to school at all, while the others a r e s u ff e r i n g s o m a n y d i s r u p t i o n s i n t h e i r e d u c a t i o n that they fail to acquire even the most basic literacy and numeracy skills Their numbers so large that they already exceed t h e c o m b i n e d p o p u l a t i o n s o f G e r m a n y, F r a n c e a n d Britain, are rising every year More than 100 million people are refugees or internally displaced because of conflicts and civil wars, from Ukraine and Myanmar t o t h e D e m o c r a t i c R e p u b l i c o f t h e C o n g o , S u d a n ,

Ethiopia and Somalia a large number of children today, though, are exiled from their homes not because of war but because they are the victims of droughts, floods and other climate-induced disasters, or of natural disasters in Turkey and Syria, the dead are still being counted, but we must also address the urgent needs of the living, all those forcibly displaced by a 7 8-magnitude earthquake from which it will take years to recover Even if we manage to feed, shelter and treat the victims, there will be little cash left over to provide temporary schooling, unless we do better than in the past; the child victims of the earthquake could spend years excluded from education in Turkey and Syria, as elsewhere, it will be girls who will suffer most: they are 35% more likely to be out of school than their male contemporaries, according to data from Unesco and we have been warned to expect that by 2030 many of them – an additional 10 million girls – will have been forced into child marriages, the number of girl brides rising yet again after years when forced marriage was on the decline

Children should not have to wait for wars to end for the opportunity to learn and thrive it is to finance the education of the forgotten 222 million that Education Cannot Wait (ECW), which i chair, was created in 2017 its replenishment conference will take place i n G e n e v a t h i s w e e k i n t h e p r e s e n c e o f a n d r e w Mitchell and other international development ministers from all over the world

Seeking to bridge the divide between humanitarian aid, only 2% of which was spent on education, and development aid, which always comes too late to deal with refugee crises, ECW is asking donors for $1 5bn to support its new strategic plan initiatives that will prevent child labour, early marriage and trafficking include the provision of safe schools in countries where Boko haram still abduct girls from their classrooms; the expansion of online learning; and of double-shift schools that, piloted in Lebanon, use school buildings more effectively by teaching local children English and French in the morning and Syrian refugee children arabic in the afternoon

We know from unspeakable recent tragedies that hope dies when food convoys and rescue workers cannot get through to besieged towns and when flimsy boats carrying refugees capsize at sea hope also dies when children are locked out of education and denied the chance to plan and prepare for their future at the age of 11, 12 and 13, young people should be optimistic and excited about great opportunities that lie ahead, but i cannot forget hearing from charity workers in a refugee camp in Moria, Greece, who had discovered three refugees in their early teens so desolate that they were planning a joint suicide For them behind barbed wire in an insanitary camp with no schooling and little else, there was only the bleakness of despair

But hope can come alive even in the harshest and least promising places in the world, if we offer children the chance of an education it is the one way to honour the international community’s as yet unredeemed promise set out in sustainable development goal 4 to be the first generation in history where every single boy and girl stateless or not goes to school as Shazia s work of mercy reminds us, it is also a moral obligation that we owe to the next generation instead of developing some of the potential of only some children in some parts of the world, we should be developing the potential of every child everywhere

Gordon Brown is chairman of the UN’s Education Cannot Wait fund and was UK prime minister between 2007 and 2010

Muslim Hands hands over 20 houses to flood victims in Mastung, Jafarabad

ISLAMABAD: The Muslim Hands active in relief rehabilitation, and reconstruction projects in flood-hit areas of the country have handed over 20 houses to flood victims in Mastung and Jafarabad while the construction of around 200 other houses has entered the final stage Executive Director of Muslim Hands in Pakistan

Syed Javed Gilani told APP on Sunday that ‘Muslim Hands’ has successfully reached 1 million beneficiaries through its Emergency response in flood-affected regions across Pakistan during the past six months The organization perpetrated about USD 8 million for rescue relief and rehabilitation projects out of which USD 4 million have been spent/disbursed We are constructing hundreds of disaster resilience houses in Mastung, Jaferabad, and Badin out of which 90 percent has been entered in the final stage while more than 20 houses have already been handed over to the flood affectees” Gilani added He told that 222,928 people were provided with ready meals and food baskets 4 782 with winter kits, and 4,527 with other Non-Food Items In the health sector, 259 medical camps and 10 basic health centers were established where more than 120 000 people were provided with free check-up medicines and other health facilities apart from 2400 herbal medicine and 64 wheelchairs Syed Javed Gilani further informed that 4,902 people were provided with employment support which includes shops rickshaws agricultural equipment kits (fertilizers, seeds, tools), and other skill-based kits “We also provided temporary shelters to more than 33 000 people which includes tents, community centers, and shelter kits while clean drinking water facilities (bottles, wells, water pumps, filtration plant) have also been provided to 544 000 people ” he said Syed Javed Gilani said that despite its own resources the Muslim Hands has also provided relief to millions of victims with the support of UNICEF, USAID, Concern Worldwide, and the Turkish Organization TIKA Gilani appreciated the great cooperation and efforts of the Government of Pakistan, NDMA, PDMAs, and other stakeholders and donors during the relief operations in the flood-affected areas S TA F F R E P O RT

IESCO notifies power suspension programme

ISLAMABAD: Islamabad Electric Supply Company (IESCO) on Sunday issued a power suspension programme for Monday for various areas of its region due to necessary maintenance and routine development work According to IESCO Spokesman the power supply of different feeders and grid stations would remain suspended for the period from 09:00 AM to 02:00 PM, Islamabad Circle Abpara, Mahfooz Shaheed G-8/1 Iqbal Town Khanna Dak Lahtrar Road, Khanna East, Kirpa, F-10/4, I-8/2, G-10 Markaz, Police Line, SCHS, NIH, AQ Khan, Kuldna, Beirut, Nimbal, TDCP PAF Mangyal Suhdran Road Anguri NCP Mangyal , Shahdara, Shahpur, Khia Bin Iqbal, Pir Suhawah, Quaid-e-Azam University, Punjab House, Bari Imam, Mandla Hathal Feeders Rawalpindi Cantt Circle Bank Road-2, Jahangir Road, Rahmatabad-2, Swan Garden-2, Morgah, Topi Pump , KH Road, Dhoke Noor, Kohala, Qureshiabad Dhok Awan Chowk Pindori Nar Kambili Sadiq, Ghazan Khan, Nara Mattur, Mandra, Industrial, Bahr-e-Kalal, Syed Kasran, Bhal, Khasala, Islamabad Feed Mill Jhata Hatial Pind Jatla Lab 1&2 Reliance Weaving Mill, Bhal, Jarrar Camp Feeders, Rawalpindi City Circle, Commercial Centre, Faizabad, Muzamal Town, Al Noor Colony Muslim Town Tahmasamabad Arya Mahalla Fawara Chowk, Jamia Masjid, Gawalmandi, Mangtal, Dhok Najo, Bani Tench Bhata, Zeeshan Colony, Officers Colony, Shams Colony Golra Pind Hoon Bibi Shaheed Feeders Attock Circle and other areas