W h y I n d I a a s n e W s u p e r p O W e r c O u l d s p e l l t r O u b l e f O r t h e W e s t

Nikkei AsiA

TO R U Ta k a h a S h i

In a bitterly divided world rife with uncertainties, India is seeking to become a superpower that could eclipse China With the war in Ukraine in a quagmire and Beijing facing the possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound new Delhi is quietly raising its geopolitical profile, but India’s rise might not be welcome news for Western democracies

India showed its ambition to play a greater role in world affairs during the Voice of the Global South Summit, an online meeting the country hosted on Jan 12-13

According to the Indian government 125 developing nations took part in the conference, discussing a range of issues in 10 sessions, each focused on specific policy areas Your voice is India s voice and your priorities are India’s priorities,” said Indian Prime Minister narendra Modi in the opening session “Our aim is to amplify the Voice of the Global South

India is also seeking to use its new Group of 20 presidency to voice the discontent of developing nations, many of which suffer from higher food and energy prices and the effects of global warming and geopolitical tensions Those nations say developed countries are mostly responsible for those problems but they are the ones to suffer the most India’s ambition to lead the “Global South” reflects its growing self-confidence With its population surpassing 1 4 billion, the country is on track to overtake China as the most populous nation this year the first time that will happen since the United nations began tracking global demographic data in the 1950s

In 2022, India likely topped Britain, its former colonial master, in terms of gross domestic product, making the South Asian nation the world s fifth largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund The Asian Development Bank has projected India’s economy will grow at a torrid pace of 7 2% this year, the highest among its 46 members in the Asia and Pacific region

India’s economic growth has been driven by the global trend toward diversified supply chains that has emerged from the intensifying U S -China rivalry and the COVID pandemic

Drawn by the country s huge potential market, Apple has started assembling its latest iPhone 14 in India moving some production away from China and other locations Taiwan s Hon Hai Precision Industry, better known as Foxconn has teamed up with Vedanta an Indian natural resources conglomerate, to jointly make semiconductors in India In a fiscal 2022 survey of Japanese companies by the Japan Bank for International Cooper- ation India topped the list of possible destinations for overseas expansion, reclaiming the crown for the first time in three years India is expected to overtake Germany in terms of GDP in 2025 and Japan in 2027 to become the third largest economy after the U S and China Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047 when it celebrates the 100th anniversary of its independence India is also a major source of leading business and political talent The U S tech industry is supported by a legion of Indian-born tech experts, including Satya nadella, chairman and chief executive of Microsoft, and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai Well-known Western politicians with Indian backgrounds include U S Vice President Kamala Harris and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak But new Delhi s attempt to raise its global profile has not always been successful Roughly a year a f t e r t h e p a n d e m i c b e g a n , I n d i a l a u n c h e d a n e x p o r t drive for domestically made vaccines to compete with C h i n a ’s “ v a c c i n e d i p l o m a c y ” B u t i t a b r u p t l y s u spended the program after it was hit by massive COVID outbreaks at home, irking many recipient countries

India’s democratic credentials have been called into question as it has failed to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine India has been critical of China s expansionary policy since its bloody Himalayan border clash with the country in 2020 new Delhi continues to blast Beijing for threatening its territorial integrity and sovereignty but has refused to join the West in rebuking Moscow’s invasion despite its clear violation of international law

While known for its nonalignment policy, India has made some strategic moves to counter China’s naval expansion into South Asia It has teamed up with Japan, the U S and Australia to form the Quad, a loose strategic coalition in the Indo-Pacific region It also has deepened ties with Europe, which has its own design for the area

From the perspective of the U S , which sees its rivalry with China as a battle between democracy and autocracy India belongs to the democratic camp India’s reluctance to cooperate with democratic countries has greatly dismayed and frustrated Western countries They know Russia and India have a long history of alliance, but it is still difficult for them to understand why a country that shares many values and strategic interests tries to keep its distance from them in the face of Moscow’s aggression

Last spring, leaders in the democratic camp, including Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited India U S President Joe Biden held an emergency online meeting with Modi They all tried to persuade India to join the alliance of democratic powers against Russia

In September Modi surprised everyone when he assailed Russian President Vladimir Putin over his war in Ukraine at a summit held on the sidelines of an international conference in Uzbekistan Today s era is not of war,” Modi told Putin in front of news media But it is too early to see Modi’s tough words as a result of pressure from the West In fact India took part in Russia s military exercises in August and September and abstained in October from a U n vote to condemn Moscow’s “illegal annexation of four eastern and southern regions of Ukraine

After the invasion, India expanded oil imports from Russia, having bought more than 1 million barrels per day since September Russia became India s largest oil supplier, replacing Iraq and Saudi Arabia new Delhi has refused to comply with a price cap on Russian oil that had been agreed upon by the Group of Seven nations as part of economic sanctions against Moscow It may be true that India has not actively supported Russia’s war but it has done little to help broker a peace deal

Even so, India’s relationship with the West has not been seriously damaged Rather, the country appears to have increased its presence in global affairs as Western nations have become more conciliatory to new Delhi “Once they realized they would not be able to bring India to their camp, the U S , Europe and Japan changed tack to avoid pushing it toward the other side,” said Toru Ito, a professor at the national Defense Academy of Japan

There is no doubt that the focus of India s geopolitical strategy is on countering China’s expansion A book published by Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in 2020 offers valuable insights into the country’s strategic thinking

In “The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World, Jaishankar wrote, India s foreign policy carries three major burdens from its past ” citing “the 1947 Partition,” which divided the territory ruled by Britain into India and Pakistan This, the foreign minister argued, “reduced the nation both demographically and politically,” and gave China “more strategic space in Asia ” It can be said that the Western perception of India as a member of its bloc is flawed in two respects

First, India has expanded its strategic ties with Western democracies through the Quad and cooperation with Europe to counter China’s naval drive to surround India with its military and commercial networks called the string of pearls But when it comes to countering China’s attempts to increase its influence in such countries as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Myanmar, India’s strategic relations with the West do not offer much help

“India’s diplomacy is aimed at countering China by using its ties with another authoritarian power, Russia, [as a deterrent], said Hiroshi Sugaya, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Indian Economic Studies a Tokyo think tank

Second, the Western nations have mistakenly judged India to be as democratic as they are The Modi government, acting on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s Hindu nationalist agenda, has taken a series of steps to suppress religious minorities in the country In August 2019 it revoked the constitutional autonomy of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir to tighten its grip over the region It has also given citizenship to illegal Hindu and other immigrants from Muslim-majority Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, while trying to exclude Muslims from its national register of citizens

Under Modi, “India is on the verge of losing its status as a democracy due to the severely shrinking of space for the media civil society and opposition according to the 2020 ‘Democracy Report’ by the Sweden-based V-Dem Institute In 2021, India was downgraded from an electoral democracy to an electoral autocracy

In fact, India has been pursuing a unique diplomacy, one of “strategic autonomy ” Its recent responses to Russia s invasion of Ukraine and other issues must have driven home to Western democracies that the South Asian nation’s strategic interests and values do not necessarily align with theirs In a way, the Voice of the Global South Summit was reminiscent of the 1955 Bandung Conference, a meeting of Asian and African nations held in Indonesia However, unlike the Bandung gathering, which was organized through cooperation between then-Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal nehru and then-Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai the first prime ministers of the two countries, the Global South was organized by India alone The fact that over 120 countries took part in the recent event signals India s growing demographic and political power “India’s rise will inevitably be compared to that of China, if only because that country has immediately preceded it, Jaishankar wrote in his book, echoing new Delhi’s strong pride and rivalry with Beijing

In the case of China’s rise, major Western powers mistakenly assumed that the emerging power would eventually move toward democracy once it was integrated with the global economy and the politically conscious middle class grew

Unlike China India has been proud of being “the world’s largest democracy,” but its actions in recent years seem to suggest that it is drifting away from democracy as its power grows If the 21st Century turns out to be India’s era, rather than China’s, the world would find itself dealing with a superpower that is no less troublesome

TORU TAKAHASHI is the Nikkei senior staff writer country? The same can be asked of Equatorial Guinea s Teodoro Obiang nguema, the Republic of the Congo’s Denis Sassou, or Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki: what do they have left in the tank? Thankfully, Africa has also seen leaders who knew perfectly well when to call it quits

On January 19, new Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that she would not seek re-election and would resign by no later than February 7 Ardern admitted that she “no longer had enough in the tank” to do justice to the most privileged job anyone could ever have To this end, she listed her achievements and promised to “try and find ways to keep working for new Zealand”

While some argued she resigned only because she knew she would not be able to win another election, many applauded her for recognising her limits and described her ability to put the interests of her country above her own as inspiring

As I watched Ardern’s resignation speech on TV, I too was inspired by the magnanimous leadership and selflessness on display Unfortunately, Ardern is an anomaly – leaders hardly ever resign from office voluntarily, let alone admit they may no longer have enough in the tank” to do justice to their undoubtedly demanding jobs

Even the most hopelessly incompetent and politi- cally spent among them rarely accept the time has come for them to call it quits They cling to power even after it becomes obvious that they have nothing left to offer to the people and that they cannot win another free and fair election

Such lack of self-awareness, often fuelled by selfishness illusions of grandeur and an insatiable thirst for power is firmly embedded in the fabric of politics, everywhere

Indeed, politicians who try to cling to power at any cost are not the products of specific geography Just remember how Britain’s Boris Johnson refused to leave office in the face of countless humiliating scandals and plunging public trust, or how Donald Trump desperately tried to hold on to power after losing the White House to Joe Biden However, watching Ardern elegantly and honourably take a bow from politics made me think primarily of Africa – my home continent which produced some of the world’s most, for lack of a better word, clingy leaders in the modern era

Take Yoweri Museveni, the 78-year-old president of Uganda After six presidential terms, or 37 years in power, he remains indifferent to suggestions that he may be better off passing the job on to someone more capable

Under Museveni’s watch, more than half of Uganda’s 45 million people were plunged into poverty Today, some 60 percent of Ugandans earn only 200 000 Ugandan shillings ($54,74) a month, and 42 1 percent experience multidimensional poverty

In December 2022 Museveni tried to defend his long tenure as president in an interview with Al Jazeera, claiming he is in government supported by the people every five years”

Of course, Uganda has not held a peaceful and credible election for more than two decades, so his professed democratic mandate is pretty questionable Ugandan pres- idential elections held in 2001 2006 2012 2016 and 2021 were all blemished by government-orchestrated repression and violence, as well as severe electoral irregularities

Museveni is continuing to lead Uganda not because he is the best man for the job or because he still has something to offer to the nation He is still occupying the presidency because he is incapable of acknowledging his limitations And he is sadly not alone among his African peers in clinging to power at a heavy cost to his people

Take Paul Biya, the 89-year-old president of Cameroon, who has been in power since 1982 On January 20, a video of the elderly leader looking extremely disorientated moments before he was set to make a speech at the United States–Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, DC went viral on social media

In the video, clearly struggling to remember why he is on the stage, Biya remarks, “Wow So I have become a celebrity”, and asks, “Who are all these people present? When an aide tells him people are waiting for him to give a speech, he responds, “Are there important personalities amongst them?” He takes quite a while to gather his wits as the audience waits in stunned silence

This shocking and embarrassing incident confirmed once again that Biya, who has been Cameroon’s president for 41 years, is no longer fit for office

For seven presidential terms Biya ruled Cameroon with an iron fist and essentially criminalised any opposition to his rule Today, he is clearly not in a state to rule anything but is still refusing to leave office His country is crippled with extreme poverty, widespread corruption and violent conflicts, yet he appears to have no intention to admit he no longer has “enough left in the tank” to fulfil his most basic responsibilities as president

As he prepares to celebrate his 90th birthday in February it is only fair to ask: what more can Biya do for his

Take Ketumile Masire, Botswana’s second president Like Biya and Museveni, Masire came to power in the 1980s, when much of Africa was ruled by so-called “strong men” who viewed themselves as above electoral politics Unlike many of his peers, however, during his 18 years in power, Masire proved himself to be a massively effective leader Under his stewardship, Botswana established one of the world s most stable democracies and best-performing economies

Despite his many successes, however, Masire never attempted to indefinitely hold on to power In 1988, at the end of his third full term as president he retired from politics and handed the country’s reins over to Festus Mogae Today, Botswana is still considered a beacon of economic and democratic development thanks largely to Masire’s outstanding leadership at a crucial time in the country s history Botswana, of course, is not the only African country that benefitted from leaders who knew when to retire Ghana, Mauritius, Cape Verde and namibia, among others, have also experienced regular and seamless leadership changes that have helped to secure stable democracies none of these examples, however, seems to have registered with Africa’s remaining strongmen who even at the twilight of their lives, show no inclination to voluntarily give up on power As the international community celebrates the many achievements of Ardern and congratulates her for knowing her limits, Biya, Moseveni, and others like them should pay attention

Knowing when to call it a day is an important part of being a good leader Ardern clearly and admirably knows this It is high time some of her African counterparts learned it too

Mhaka has a BA Honours degree from the University of Cape Town and works in the communications industry