Case Study: Osprey’s coverage of the Israel-Gaza conflict over the last 3 years

Osprey Flight Solutions

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CASE STUDY Predicting Conflict

Osprey’s coverage of the Israel-Gaza conflict over the last 3 years Published: June 2023

Tel: +44 (0) 2086 112 659 | info@ospreyfs.com | www.ospreyflightsolutions.com Osprey Flight Solutions is a trading name of Sora Risk Solutions Limited, registered in England and Wales. Company Registration number 11418513

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BACKGROUND/INTRODUCTION The Israel-Gaza conflict has been marked by long-standing tensions and periodic outbreaks of armed clashes between Israel and Palestinian militant groups, notably Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). As evidenced by past events, rockets being fired by Gaza-based militants typically occur in response to geopolitical developments in Israel, which prompt an escalation in tensions between Israel and Palestinian militant groups. In response to rocket fire, airstrikes conducted by the IDF against militant positions in the Gaza Strip typically occur. In addition, it should also be noted that whilst ceasefires are typically brokered following bouts of armed clashes, these rarely hold in their entirety and therefore it cannot be assumed that if a ceasefire is agreed that clashes will end immediately.

These conflicts when flared pose a significant risk to aviation operators utilising Israeli airspace and airports, such as Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG/TLV). In the event that rockets should target Tel Aviv, including Ben Gurion Airport, Israel's Iron Dome air-defence system is highly effective at intercepting and destroying rockets, and therefore, to an extent, mitigates the risk posed by rocket fire. However, on previous occasions the IDF has requested civilian aviation flight paths into and out of Ben Gurion Airport to be temporarily altered to ensure safety due to bouts of armed clashes in Gaza.

This case study will take a deeper look into the conflict flare ups over the past 3 years, how they impacted the industry and how Osprey Flight Solutions’ advanced AI anomaly detection software, Osprey:Squawk, was able to help clients before and during these conflicts.

Tel: +44 (0) 2086 112 659 | info@ospreyfs.com | www.ospreyflightsolutions.com Osprey Flight Solutions is a trading name of Sora Risk Solutions Limited, registered in England and Wales. Company Registration number 11418513

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SUMMARY OF EACH CONFLICT MAY 2021 CONFLICT In May 2021, significant armed clashes erupted between Israel and Palestinian armed groups with dozens of barrages totalling over 4,500 rockets being launched from Gaza towards Israel, predominantly into the Southern District within 32km (20 miles) of the border. Over 1,500 shootdowns of rockets by Iron Dome systems occurred over Israel, predominantly in Southern District.

The IDF conducted approximately 2,000 air and artillery strikes into Gaza during the conflict. To read more about Osprey’s assessment of the situation click here.

This conflict caused severe flight delays, diversions and cancellations for the industry. During this period, Osprey issued over 30 critical Alerts to clients, including predictive warnings on missile and rocket launches, conducted 3 airspace risk level changes and airport closure warnings before government advisories were issued.

Osprey:Squawk, detected three consecutive days of security anomalies from 7-9 May, preceding the outbreak of violence. This early detection highlighted the potential for a conflict and allowed aviation security practitioners to stay informed. Our clients were able to manage their exposure to hazardous activity within Israeli airspace proactively as Osprey Flight Solutions.

Tel: +44 (0) 2086 112 659 | info@ospreyfs.com | www.ospreyflightsolutions.com Osprey Flight Solutions is a trading name of Sora Risk Solutions Limited, registered in England and Wales. Company Registration number 11418513

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AUGUST 2022 CONFLICT On 7 August, another bout of armed clashes began between Israel and the PIJ in Gaza. Barrages totalling over 1,000 rockets were launched from Gaza towards Israel, predominantly into Southern District within 32km (20 miles) of the border. Hundreds of shoot-downs of rockets by Iron Dome systems occurred over Israel, predominantly in Southern District. The IDF conducted hundreds of strikes into Gaza during the conflict.

The above caused disruption at Tel Aviv airport for commercial airlines, 2 major US airlines had to cancel all flights to Tel Aviv for the duration of the conflict. During this bout of conflict Osprey issued 10 Alerts, including 2 critical, and one on the 2 August stating ‘expect rocket fire within 72 hours’, to clients before and during, which allowed 6 Osprey clients to continue operations without disruption. :Squawk once again identified three consecutive days of security anomalies twice from 13-15 July and 5-7 August, serving as an early warning of the impending conflict. This information enabled aviation operators to assess the risk and take appropriate measures. Clients using Osprey managed their exposure to hazardous activity within the airspace over Israel proactively.

Tel: +44 (0) 2086 112 659 | info@ospreyfs.com | www.ospreyflightsolutions.com Osprey Flight Solutions is a trading name of Sora Risk Solutions Limited, registered in England and Wales. Company Registration number 11418513

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MAY 2023 CONFLICT The most recent significant armed clashes between Israel and the PIJ in Gaza took place from 1013 May. Barrages totalling over 1,000 rockets were launched from Gaza towards Israel, predominantly into Southern District within 32km (20 miles) of the border. Hundreds of shootdowns of rockets by Iron Dome systems occurred over Israel, predominantly in Southern District. The IDF conducted hundreds of strikes into Gaza during the conflict.

Before and during this conflict Osprey issued 22 Alerts to clients, including one on the 8 May stating ‘be prepared for rocket and drone fire into Israel/Tel Aviv within 72-96 hours’, and made 2 risk levels for the country, airport and airspace. Osprey clients were able to manage their exposure to hazardous activity within FIR Tel Aviv (LLLL) airspace proactively. :Squawk closely monitored the security situation and identified security anomalies over 7-13 May. While individual anomalies in Israel are not uncommon, the consecutive occurrence of these anomalies was a departure from the norm. This pattern was similar to the previous conflicts, indicating a potential escalation. Osprey's timely detection allowed aviation security practitioners to anticipate airspace restrictions and a conflict zone-related NOTAM for FIR Tel Aviv (LLLL) airspace.

Tel: +44 (0) 2086 112 659 | info@ospreyfs.com | www.ospreyflightsolutions.com Osprey Flight Solutions is a trading name of Sora Risk Solutions Limited, registered in England and Wales. Company Registration number 11418513

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HOW OSPREY UTILISED DATA TO PREDICT THESE EVENTS Osprey Flight Solutions utilised :Squawk to analyse data and identify patterns indicative of an impending conflict. By monitoring various security indicators, :Squawk flagged anomalies that deviated from the established baseline. This approach provided early warnings and allowed for proactive decision-making by aviation security practitioners.

The data-driven predictions were made possible through Osprey's continuous monitoring of security indicators, including political tensions, military activities, and other relevant factors. By analysing historical data and identifying recurring patterns preceding previous conflicts, :Squawk was able to provide actionable insights. :Squawk detected the consecutive occurrence of security anomalies in the days leading up to each conflict, which had been previously observed in similar scenarios. This consistent pattern suggested an increased risk of armed clashes. By promptly notifying aviation security practitioners, Osprey enabled them to assess the evolving situation and make informed decisions regarding airspace restrictions and safety measures.

Overall, Osprey:Squawk has proven its effectiveness in predicting conflicts in the Israel-Gaza region. By leveraging data and monitoring security indicators, Osprey provided early warnings of armed clashes for all events, allowing aviation operators to proactively manage risks and ensure the safety of their operations in the region.

Tel: +44 (0) 2086 112 659 | info@ospreyfs.com | www.ospreyflightsolutions.com Osprey Flight Solutions is a trading name of Sora Risk Solutions Limited, registered in England and Wales. Company Registration number 11418513

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HOW CAN THIS HELP YOU AS AN OPERATOR? As shown in this case study having forewarning of a situation can be a major advantage to airline operations. Through predictive AI Osprey was able to help more than 6 commercial carriers experience little/no disruption to operations during the recent bouts of Israel conflicts, saving them a great amount of monetary and time disruption costs.

Osprey believes the future of aviation is predictive intelligence, our innovative proactive approach to risk intelligence provides the fastest and most accurate solution to aviation operators on the market. Our cohesion of Machine-Learning, AI and analysts provide you with the most up to date, verified and accurate picture of global aviation risk. Being able to receive advanced warnings of a potential threat event allows airlines the time needed to mitigate those risks and continue operations smoothly.

Managing risk proactively allows operators to avoid disruption to flight operations. Beyond flight delays, the potential of high-cost diversions can be lowered by operating in complex airspace environments with certainty. Lastly, appropriate risk managements allow clients to avoid activating costly crisis response mechanisms unnecessarily.

This year 46% of Osprey’s Alerts have been proactive to a situation, with a 96% accuracy rate in Q1. Osprey has been able to provide advanced warning to clients of potential crises, giving them time to prepare not just react. With Osprey you can be safe in the knowledge that you are getting the clearest picture of global risk.

If you want to find out more about our leading aviation risk assessment tools that you can use to gain a better understanding of the risks facing your flight operations, then please contact us today.

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Tel: +44 (0) 2086 112 659 | info@ospreyfs.com | www.ospreyflightsolutions.com Osprey Flight Solutions is a trading name of Sora Risk Solutions Limited, registered in England and Wales. Company Registration number 11418513

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