Corn south november 2017

Corn Hybrid Preview

CornSouth ONE GROWER PUBLISHING, LLC

Southern Production & Marketing Strategies

A Supplement to Cotton Farming and The Peanut Grower Magazines

November 2017

CornSouth China’s Bold Move Whenever a country with 20 percent of the world’s population makes a policy decision, the rest of the world takes notice. Recently, China announced plans to blend 10 percent ethanol into the nation’s fuel supply. According to Mark Welch, Texas A&M Amanda Huber Ag Extension economist, Editor this would mean that about 4 billion gallons of ethanol would be needed to achieve the mandate consuming about 36 mmt or 1.4 billion bushels of corn, which is about 17 percent of current corn production in China.

However, China already has a stockpile of 200 million tons of corn, enough to feed their own 1.4 billion people for more than a year, created from policies made decades ago. As many as 36 new ethanol plants are needed to meet the demand and Beijing’s bold timeline to E10 gasoline across the world’s largest car market by 2020, potentially depleting the government stockpile

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Grain Stocks

The Grain Stocks report from USDA last week showed corn in all positions as of Sept.

1 at 2.29 billion bushels, up 32 percent over last year and 76 percent above the most recent five-year average. This number was below the September WASDE number for 2016/17 ending stocks of 2.350 billion bushels and below the average trade guess going into the report of 2.353 billion.

The crop condition index for U.S. corn increased four points this week, very close to normal levels and consistent with seasonal patterns. The crop index this week is 362 and the average for early October is 361. The index usually bottoms out in early September and shows a slight increase as harvest expands. This week, the percent of crop rated as very poor declined by one point, the

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CORN SOUTH | NOVEMBER 2017

in just over four years.

Welch says that some in China are also encouraging the government to suspend the minimum support price for wheat and rice. Given recent reform of the corn policy, the relatively high support prices of wheat and rice are expected to cause corn production to shift towards these other crops, boosting already large stocks. The support price for wheat is 2,360 to 2,300 RMB per ton (about $9.50 per bushel) and rice 2,600 to 3,000 RMB (about $18/cwt.).

The change is part of China’s push to clean up the environment, particularly their air. While it will take a while to see if they can pull off their ambitious timeline, there is some speculation that to make it work initially would require importing ethanol until plants can come online. After that, could it be that corn would be needed?

Or if China’s producers dive head-long into corn, does that open markets for more rice, wheat and other crops? Is will be interesting to watch.

Corn South is a supplement to the Mid-South and Southeast versions of Cotton Farming magazine and to The Peanut Grower magazine for producers in Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi.

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Follow Corn South on Twitter @Corn_South Cover photo by Vicky Boyd Send comments to Corn South, 6515 Goodman Rd., Box 360, Olive Branch, MS, 38654. You may also call 901-767-4020 or contact Lia Guthrie at lguthrie@ onegrower.com or Amanda Huber at ahuber@onegrower.com.

Market Factors

s corn harvest winds down, Mark Welch, Texas A&M Ag Extension economist offered this October Market Grain Outlook report.

Crop Progress

Corn South: Covering Southern Corn Production

fair category declined by one, and corn rated good increase by 2 points. Maturity is running behind normal, 68 percent this week compared to an average of 78 percent. Harvest is9 points below average, 17 percent cut compared to 26 percent on average.

Outside Markets

The Institute of Supply Management reported that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September. The ISM index for September was 60.8, up 2 points from 58.8 in August and is the highest index reading since May of 2004. An index above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector.

Marketing Strategies Seasonality

The seasonal price pattern for the December corn contract shows that prices tend to fall off after we know more about acres (June 30 Acreage report) and weather during the precipitation and temperature sensitive silking and tasseling stages (July). With dry conditions impacting major corn growing areas, yield concerns have propped up prices more so than we would see in a normal year, com-

Market Overview:

■ Corn stocks at 2.29 billion bushels ■ Farm-stored stocks up 25 percent from a year earlier ■ Off-farm stocks up 36 percent from a year ago ■ China announces plan to blend 10 percent ethanol into fuel supply

pounded by significantly fewer corn acres this year. The corn production estimate came in slightly higher than expected in the September WASDE but the grain stocks report came in smaller than expected. At this point, it looks like we set the seasonal low a few weeks earlier than normal this year.

2017 Marketing Plan

I am 80 percent sold on the 2017 corn crop and will price the remaining 20 percent at harvest. I am turning my attention to the December 2018 contract and am prepared to make sales against next year’s crop if we get a significant late-season rally. CS CORNSOUTH.COM

2018 Corn Hybrids Corn South presents a partial listing of corn hybrids suited for the Southern growing region.

For a more complete listing, contact your seed representative.

DEKALB DKC62-08 brand (112 RM) • Versatile with top-end yield potential • Very good stalks, roots and drought tolerance • Nice drydown and test weight • Proven performer DKC64-35 brand (114 RM) • Disease Shield with excellent foliar disease tolerance and staygreen • Very good stalk and root strength • Excellent Southern Rust tolerance • Versatility across yield levels DKC65-20 brand (115 RM) • Shorter plant stature with a broad canopy • Excellent stalks and roots • Very good staygreen and intactness • Strong drought tolerance

DKC65-95 brand (115 RM) • Can perform across yield levels • Moderate plant stature • Good late season health • Strong stalks and roots DKC66-59 brand (116 RM) • Excellent yield in most any geography • Performs well in dryland or irrigation • Responds well to foliar fungicide • Provides excellent ear flex DKC66-97 brand (116 RM) • Broad adaptability across regions • Strong stalks and roots • Has been a stable performer • Very good late season plant integrity DKC67-44 brand (117 RM) • Good in low and high yield environments • Very good ear flex and nice grain quality • Very strong drought tolerance

DKC67-72 brand (117 RM) • Consistency across environments • Strong heat and drought tolerance • Good greensnap tolerance • Has shown great standability • Volume leader within region DKC68-26 brand (118 RM) • Good Goss’s Wilt tolerance • Very good performance in high-yield environments • Taller stature, good greensnap tolerance • Good husk coverage with girthy, flex ears DKC70-27 brand (120 RM) • Disease Shield product, with excellent foliar disease tolerance • Strong performance in dryland or irrigated environments • Full season performance leader • Very good grain quality

Dulaney Seed RL9583VYHR (118 RM) • Optimum Leptra insect protection • Proven hybrid with high yield potential • Open husk ears with hard, high test weight grain

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2018 Corn Hybrids • For fertile soils with top management RL9817YHB (117 RM) • New yield leader for the South • Excellent stalks and roots for late-season intactness • Good husk coverage and high test weight AV8714VYHR (114 RM) • New hybrid with top-yield potential • Strong roots with outstanding agronomics • Optimum Leptra insect protection • Dual purpose hybrid for irrigated or dryland AV8614YHB (114 RM) • New high yielding, widely adapted hybrid with good ear flex • Good green snap tolerance and Goss’s Wilt resistance AV8430VYHR (113 RM) • Newer hybrid with exceptional yields • Optimum Leptra insect protection for reduced refuge • Tall, healthy plant with good foliar disease package R7844 (110 RM) • Optimum AQUAmax hybrid with excellent drought tolerance • Very good greensnap resistance and good Goss’s Wilt resistance • Flexible weed control hybrid with Roundup herbicide resistance R9795 (121 RM) • Healthy, Southern-based genetics with excellent heat tolerance • Outstanding Gray Leaf Spot and overall leaf disease tolerance • High yield potential and best planted in warm tilled soils

NK Corn NK0944 (109 RM) • Exceptional drought tolerance • Top-end yield potential • Good choice for highly managed acres • Strong emergence and seedling vigor for early planting NK1066 (110 RM) • Exceptional choice for variable, medium to coarse soil types • Strong foliar disease package • Excellent drydown and very good grain quality NK1452 (114 RM) • Outstanding yield performance

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• Strong emergence and seedling vigor • Superb root and proven stalk strength • Excellent choice for continuous corn NK1433 (114 RM) • Minimizes weather risks with great performance in stress environments • Ear flex provides population flexibility • Superb seedling vigor for a strong start • Sound agronomics for broad adaptability NK1444 (114 RM) • Superior stress tolerance for consistent top-end yields • Very strong stalk strength enhances late-season plant intactness • Yields well in high-disease environments • Ear flex allows for normal to below normal planting populations NK1694 (116 RM) • Well-adapted to drought-prone soils • Yields well in high-disease environments, despite average Gray Leaf Spot resistance • Stable plant and ear height across rolling stress environments • Excels on medium- and fine soils NK1808 (118 RM) • Complete agronomic package • Strong choice for highly productive irrigated and dryland systems • Tall plant type with good stalks for improved standability • Great plant health and staygreen promotes late-season intactness

Pioneer P0843AM (108 RM) • Early maturing stable hybrid with outstanding drought tolerance • Suitable for high residue environments • Shorter plant with lower ear placement plus very good staygreen • Excellent stalks, average roots and above average test weight P1197YHR (111 RM) • Leading yield performance and strong agronomics • Plant in moderate to productive dryland soils or under irrigation • Moderately statured plant with excellent staygreen • Excellent stalks, average roots and above average northern leaf blight resistance P1316YHR (113 RM) • Mid-season hybrid for dryland acres with outstanding drought tolerance • Good agronomics, average stalks, roots

and mid-season brittle resistance • Above average plant height and ear height P1442YHR (114 RM) • New with high-yield potential, yield stability and test weight • Outstanding roots, strong stalks with slightly below average mid-season brittle resistance • Adaptability allows placement on a range of soil types P1637YHR (116 RM) • Exceptional top-end yield potential and proven yield stability • Suited for dryland or irrigated corn • Superior roots with above average stalks and mid-season brittle stalk resistance P1794VYHR (117 RM) • Late-season hybrid with Optimum Leptra insect protection • Delivers solid yield potential • Strong early emergence and moderate northern leaf blight resistance • Position in well-watered environments P1870YHR (118 RM) • New product for irrigated and higher yielding non-irrigated environments • An early silk option in a full-season hybrid that fits across soil types • Moderate plant height with lower ear placement plus improved standability • Moderate resistance to northern leaf blight P1916YHR (119 RM) • Late-season hybrid with shorter stature and lower ear placement • Superb stalks with strong roots • Delivers excellent yield potential, grain quality and favorable stress emergence • Position under irrigated and high-yield dryland situations P2089VYHR (120 RM) • Full-season product with impressive yield potential plus good yield stability • Excellent choice for a wide range of soils • Ear flex ability expands population options for variable-rate seeding • Outstanding stalks and staygreen with strong mid-season brittle stalk resistance

For additional information: ■ ■ ■ ■

www.DEKALB.com/MySeed www.NKCorn.com www.Pioneer.com www.AgVentureMidSouth.com CORNSOUTH.COM