Foreword

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Foreword

There’s a growing sense of optimism as COVID-19 restrictions lift.

Record high land sales volumes and rising prices, underpinned by strong demand, are hallmarks of the current market. The stage is set for greenfield and other residential property markets to continue to perform over the final months of the year.

The positive momentum continued in the last quarter driven by many of the factors that have played a role over the last year. These include record low interest rates, government fiscal stimulus and improving confidence and optimism.

Despite the major challenges faced since early 2020, the economic recovery and rebound occurred faster than previously forecast.

In Victoria, land sales remain at record highs and price growth continues. Indeed, the September quarter saw greenfield residential land prices reach record highs.

Momentum remains positive with Melbourne’s most recent lockdown coming to an end and buyer enquiry remaining strong in recent months. All of this bodes well for the remainder of 2021 and early 2022.

Although first home buyers have steadily retreated over the last year, partly due to higher prices and fewer key government incentives, upgrader buyers remain active.

In addition, we continue to observe a steady inflow of investors following an earlier hiatus. Investors are likely to be an increasingly important segment over the short to medium term.

The Queensland market continues to see increasing levels of interest. Despite numerous lockdowns and other restrictions being implemented across the nation, to various degrees, Queensland continues to attract large numbers of interstate migrants with many choosing the greenfields to call home.

Importantly, the Queensland greenfield market remains relatively affordable - just one of the many factors which has seen a surge in demand for new residential land in the Sunshine state.

Indeed, strong demand has led to declining levels of stock which is available for sale and this has further intensified competition in the market. South East Queensland’s growth corridors, especially the Logan and Ipswich municipalities, are doing much of the heavy lifting in satisfying buyer demand. COVID-19 has changed many aspects of the property market. In some cases, COVID-19 has led to an acceleration of trends which had been underway for many years. Working from home, now firmly entrenched across the economy, is just one example.

On the policy front, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced it will aim to reduce the maximum amount that households can borrow to slow credit growth.

Tougher serviceability tests, however, are likely to have a modest impact on the market and it is possible that further measures might be introduced. Changes to lending conditions are important to the overall health of the market and Oliver Hume will be tracking the impact of APRA’s recent decision.

Going forward, the gradual reopening of interstate and international borders, including the eventual full resumption of Australia’s migration program, will be a significant boost to the market. Importantly, it will also provide further evidence of how COVID-19 has affected buyer preferences on a more permanent basis.

In such uncertain times, understanding current and emerging trends in the property market has never been more important.

The latest Quarterly Market Insights analyses the multiple indicators we track to help us understand the greenfield and broader residential property markets.

The report includes our own proprietary property intelligence and has been prepared by our expert inhouse research team. Delivering the latest data and intelligence to our clients, stakeholders and strategic partners empowers them to react to trends, anticipate the future and make strategic decisions.

It’s all part of our commitment to providing leading market insights, forecasts and in-depth analysis of the Australian residential property market.

Chief Executive Officer - Project Marketing j.coppini@oliverhume.com.au

Perth WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Darwin

NORTHERN TERRITORY

SOUTH AUSTRALIA QUEENSLAND

Brisbane

Gold Coast

Adelaide NEW SOUTH WALES

Sydney

VICTORIA

Canberra

Melbourne

TASMANIA

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